Why saying "I don't know" is a key to success | Poker champion Annie Duke | Big Think
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 5 ก.พ. 2018
- Why saying "I don't know" is a key to success
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In the earliest stages of our educations it gets drilled into us that certainty is good, and phrases like "I don't know" or "I'm not sure" are lesser ways of thinking. That's a shame, says former World Series poker champion and self-professed "uncertainty evangelist" Annie Duke: being uncertain is a much more accurate representation of the world than concrete certainty-there is just too much blind luck in the mix. Most often we're dealing with probability, not premonition, but the more accurate you make your worldview, the better your predictions will turn out. Embracing what you don't know can help you make surer bets on the future. Here, Duke gives an eye-opening lesson on how to recalibrate your beliefs, the difference between confidence and certainty, and how to use uncertainty to cultivate flexible thinking, smarter decision-making, and more productive collaboration. Annie Duke is the author of Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts.
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ANNIE DUKE:
Annie Duke has leveraged her expertise in the science of smart decision making to excel at pursuits as varied as championship poker to public speaking. For two decades, Annie was one of the top poker players in the world. In 2004, she bested a field of 234 players to win her first World Series of Poker (WSOP) bracelet. The same year, she triumphed in the $2 million winner-take-all, invitation-only WSOP Tournament of Champions. In 2010, she won the prestigious NBC National Heads-Up Poker Championship. Prior to becoming a professional poker player, Annie was awarded the National Science Foundation Fellowship. Thanks to this fellowship, she studied Cognitive Psychology at the University of Pennsylvania.
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TRANSCRIPT:
Annie Duke: I like to think of myself as an uncertainty evangelist. I’m just shouting it from the rooftops: we should all be embracing uncertainty. And one of the most common things that people are saying to me is: isn’t uncertainty a barrier to success?
I think there’s a couple of things. I think that, first of all, this idea of “I don’t know” or “I’m not sure” or “it could turn out a lot of different ways” or all the different ways we might express uncertainty: “I believe this thing to be true, but I’m like 60 percent on it.” I think that we’re taught from the earliest stage, as we walk into preschool, that “I’m not sure” and “I don’t know” are strings of dirty words or something. I mean, last time you put “I don’t know” on a test what happened to you? I’m pretty sure you got marked wrong. But the thing is that that’s really a shame.
Certainly it’s a much more accurate representation of any kind of prediction of the future. If I say to you, “Well I think that we should implement this business strategy because here’s how it’s going to turn out…” Well I hope that you’re not saying: “I know for sure it’s going to turn out that way,” because that’s just not an accurate representation of the world. Too many things can intervene. There’s too much luck involved in the way that things turn out.
Even if I know for sure what the mathematics are; even if I’ve got a coin, I’ve examined it, I know it’s a fair coin with a heads and a tail, so I know it’s going to land heads or tails 50 percent of the time-I still don’t know how it’s going to turn out on the next flip. So if you ask me: "If I flip this coin what’s it going to land on?" There’s one sense in which I can tell you something with some certainty; I can say, “Well, if I had done my homework, I can say that 50 percent of the time it will land heads.” And if you say to me, “Well, no that’s not what I want you to tell me. What’s it going to land?” My answer has to be: I don’t know. I mean, how could I? So A: uncertainty is a more accurate representation of the world and I’d like to argue that the more accurate your representation of the world the better your decisions are and the better you’re going to propel yourself to success. So that’s number one. But we’re taught that it’s a bad thing.
I think the other problem is that we really confuse confidence with certainty. And there’s a difference. One of the things that I used to say in poker when people would ask me about it-they’d say, “Don’t you need to be like super confident to be a great poker player?” And I would say, “Well it kind of depends on what you mean by confidence.” There’s one thing, which I would sort of view as hubris in the face of the game:
Read the full transcript at bigthink.com/videos/annie-duk...
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Is uncertainty a good thing? Maybe.
Eske Andersen Someone follows Tzeentch
Hahaha well played
I don't know**
Among the better Big Think videos. Now go read Taleb's "Black Swan", Kahneman's "Thinking, Fast and Slow", and Rosenzweig's "The Halo Effect" -- they go deeper into this (from perspectives of finance, psychology, business, and more).
I must be INCREDIBLY successful because I say “I don’t know” all the time!
KittySnicker Sarcasm.
I am here because “I don’t know” is my immediate answer to practically every question! Realizing this many years ago I became highly aware of the constant response. It has become a life mantra :)
I appreciate a person that is willing to say I don't know instead of trying to bs their way through.
It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so.
- Mark Twain
"Don't wrap up your identity around your belief of being certain" Thanks, Annie!
Scientists, engineers and most military people are taught the intregrity to be honest. Which gets them into a lot of trouble with people who lack integrity.
Very good information! Thanks!
Awesome...very very astute point...too many bad outcomes come out of not understanding this crucial aspect of the world...uncertainty is the norm in nature & the more one tends to run from it the more one runs straight into trouble
Thank you all very much
Zen mind. Don't play poker but I think its a good talk. The more you know the more you know that you don't know.
Margaret Moore why shouldnt i play poker?
LOL. I'm a great communicator. I meant I don't play poker and have no idea who the woman is but I thought her talk made a lot of sense.
A delightful philosophy from a poker player! Better than any college class!
She puts it in words better than how I've thought of this.
That was fantastic.
Annie is brilliant.
Thought like this for nearly all my life. Probably a major cause for my failure.
Interesting indeed, as there is always the x factor so to speak, wherein; no one can prepare for every single variable literally.
Certainly uncertain.
Wow!
Very good point Annie, I understand well and too often feel/ see what you are stating, but thinking of "UNCERTAINTY" as somewhat weakness is naive and in fact, it is not the proper word to oppose CERTAINTY. Any unbiased broad thinking minded person knows that everything is "RELATIVE". Who Einstein "copied" it from? Maybe the ancient Taoist Chinese...it does not matter. The key is entering issues/event from the factual point of view that things are relative and if you have to "state" an outcome it shld be in terms of probabilities and percentages, which are "adjusted according to TIMING and SITUATION", as those ancient Chinese sages recommended since 2,500+ years ago! So the more appropriate word (if any) to oppose CERTAINTY (w/c is foolish) is RELATIVITY. If you focus from this standpoint you will "FEEL CERTAIN/ CONFIDENT IN BEING RELATIVIST (or relative))"
Isn't more percentage of the face that's having up prior to flip and still compensate for the possibility of it landing on its side....
The problem with what i know is that i cant remember what ive forgotten.
I really feel your case for uncertainty is being misrepresented....there are things we should absolutely be certain about, the reason you get an incorrect score on a test where you answered "I don't know" is because the answer was absolute, it will never be anything else on that test.
So it's more like an I'm open to learn
Lens input push military sister aim pop logic grip.
Almost definitely preaching to the choir here. I'm not even certain this stuff can be taught.
In my weakest moments, I like to think that it can. But I have to be really _really_ drunk.
When you see new evidence the thing to do is update your estimated probabilities using Bayes' Theorem.
Some things here make sense, but, in general, I really can't get along with "I'm not sure" people.
Uncertainty and lack of control are the worse things in the world. I hate this intellectual trend towards embracing pain, anxiety and uncertainty as a means to be better
Living in Asia....I agree. However, getting Asian students or their Confucian parents to embrace this is sadly too often a fool's errand.
It's like a way to run form something 😉
Did anyone else catch the word 'certainly' at 0:54?
Seriously! Noone has liked this?! She used the word certainly in a video AGAINST certainty. If that's not a contradiction, I don't know what is!
Calm down
I'm going all In! Only a fool would fold!
Yes yes yes
Sweet lady, I can Tell and even show you things that make you wonder... even last sunday, and Today ... love from France 🇫🇷
Well, I don't know what's really going on behind the scenes in politics, and I don't know what news really is true or not.
*THE GAME*
everything within reason
Did they literally just changed the title to completely different one?
Yeah, I came for some poker tips and left with philosophical knowledge lol
I like what ur saying but saying “I’m wrong” or being wrong isn’t bad either! It’s when u don’t say “im wrong” or believe you are wrong! Lol
She was a poker champion when poker was easier - she just doesn't cut it now and hasn't for nearly ten years
THE GREATEST, MOST HELPFUL TEACHING / LESSON ON THE WEB, IN THE WEB'S HISTORY. ONLY THE HUMBLE CAN BECOME THE GREATEST. WHAT A HONEY. WISH I WAS YOUNG ENOUGH TO BE GOOD ENOUGH 4 U.
The best predictors are the most skeptical of their own conclusions. Look to debunk their own reasoning. In another sphere this is called the scientific method. You may often be right but won't suspect the times you will be wrong. The best climbers are killed by the most basic mistakes.
I liked the video, but I feel like she contradicts herself. She says we can't be sure about many things, yet she is very sure about her opinions in this video. What do you guys think?
She's seems pretty sure about her uncertainty idea.
Too meta lol
I don’t know isn’t an answer. You’re hungry or your not.
but how is she so sure that not knowing is a key to sucess?
Why I read the title as Pokemon Champion?
Kinda has to do with religion as well. Religious people are often "certain" in their belief but really have no basis for it.
At the same time you sometimes do have to steel your mind from misinformation. Ex. the Earth is round, I'm certain
I dont know if i like this video
I have a theory.
big think use misleading titles to force us to watch every single video because we have no way to know what each video is about.
I'm not watching this one because I'm tired of it.
kind of a Socratic view on wisdom and knowledge, no?
More a Bayes' one I'd say
Bayesianism
First
User: Is this bridge strong enough for my car?
Engineer: I don't know
User: Will this building fall down?
Engineer: I don't know
User: Will this phone explode while I hold it near my head?
Engineer: I don't know
You can't wish yourself to a better future!
The engineer can say "yes" to all these using well calculated choices and the exact opposite have the possibility of occurring. Even if the engineer is 100% accurate using both facts and calculations, what the he/she considered as impossible is still possible.
There's a difference between what you wrote and what she meant.
@@patman_for_sure You're correct. The comment made by Brian McConkey highlights the notion of a system's resilience under stress or disorder. Nassim Taleb developed an idea of "antifragility" as a spinoff of that, where a system actually gains from disorder or stress
@@IlanHirschfield hmmm, can you please explain further?
Can human beings also grow more from stress; can we also be subject to that theory?
@@patman_for_sure Yes! In fact, I would consider a woman who maintains a level-headed attitude despite increasing entropy around her (while dealing with the issues causing that entropy) a highly desirable candidate for a romantic partner!
@@IlanHirschfield very interesting. The randomness of her behaviour that is more akin to a surfer on a rough wave than a steady ship can give the relationship an extra breath of life.
Am I understanding you right?
Would really love to meet the people who down vote this
Don't blame her for his brother.
The only true wisdom is known that you don't know nothing 👌
Well, I was always certain slavery, murder and rape were unethical, but now "I don't know"
It is a Shame that you think of "evangelism" as a good or even a positive thing.
She didn't say whether it was good or bad, just that she is one. ie that she proselytizes uncertainty.
Poker champion? What kinda joke is this?
That's a sadhguru lube
she's constantly mixing up notions. Incertainty of the situation and incertainty of the individual. That's not the same thing.
Wtf is she going on about? If the coin toss has 2 possible results, you have certainty of one of two possible outcomes. You can plan around both outcomes.
Certainty is a good thing.
Some outcomes are fixed. Like a coin toss. Only two possible outcomes.
@@dengmadhel Yes, but you can't determine FOR SURE on any single coin toss which outcome will result. Saying otherwise is ignorance of simple probability theory for discrete variables.
Ignorance is in not knowing that there are only two possible outcomes to a coin toss and preparing accordingly.
@@dengmadhel What do you mean by "prepare accordingly"? You can't CONTROL which outcome will result from flipping the coin, even though those outcomes are discrete