The NEGATIVES of Positive EV Sports Betting......(What They WON'T Tell You)
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 4 ต.ค. 2024
- Are you ready to learn the truth about positive EV sports betting? In this eye-opening video, we delve into "The Negatives of Positive EV Sports Betting... (What They Won't Tell You)." Brace yourself as we uncover the hidden truths lurking beneath the surface of this popular betting strategy. Ever wondered if there's a dark side to positive EV sports betting? Well, wonder no more! We present you with an in-depth analysis of the drawbacks and potential risks associated with this seemingly foolproof betting method. It's time to face the facts! Join us as we shatter the illusions surrounding positive EV sports betting. We'll reveal the less glamorous side and disclose what the proponents of this strategy won't tell you. Prepare to be enlightened! While positive EV sports betting may promise lucrative wins and long-term profitability, it's vital to acknowledge its downsides. From the psychological toll it can have on bettors to the risk of overconfidence and miscalculations, we explore it all. Furthermore, we'll expose common misconceptions and provide insights into the hidden pitfalls awaiting unsuspecting bettors. It's crucial to educate yourself about the potential drawbacks, so you can make well-informed decisions in your sports betting journey. But fear not! Our goal isn't to dissuade you from positive EV sports betting altogether. Instead, we aim to equip you with the knowledge necessary to navigate this strategy successfully. By understanding both the bright and dark sides, you'll be able to make smarter betting choices. So, whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of sports betting, this video is a must-watch. Gain a comprehensive understanding of the negatives associated with positive EV sports betting and develop a more realistic perspective. Don't fall victim to misinformation or unrealistic expectations. Stay one step ahead by diving into "The Negatives of Positive EV Sports Betting... (What They Won't Tell You)." Arm yourself with the truth and let it guide you towards a more balanced and successful betting approach.
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Some are too busy trying to sell certain software and claim there commission rather than give a full picture. So respect to you. The monthly fees for Oddsjam and Rebel betting are big. You need to fully understand all the ups and downs before committing. I'm based in the UK. If I could fully access all USA bookies and Pinnacle I would gladly sign up for Oddsjam or Rebel betting. I have the time and long term with good bank management it has been profitable for myself. But bookmaker restrictions killed it for me. Pointless betting to small stakes (if that's even allowed by most bookmakers) when you look at the monthly software fees.
I agree, well said. They're too busy pushing a product without giving the full scope of it all. I've been caught many times touting how much I've made but never spoke of the downsides or the risks. Trying to change that,.
@BillyC24 I have no problems about winning or losing. Betting and Gambling has Two options. But not being able to freely place bets can ruin the strategy
Exactly, if only there weren’t limits then we’d all be on a yacht in the Maldives relaxing.
@BillyC24 Billy it's not limits. I understand a bookmaker isn't going to lay the wrong odds for lots of money. They just don't want to take on betterors whom are clever and can long term beat them, when they can make money via mug punters who bet on everything at the wrong price. Been involved in betting for over 45 years
I appreciate that insight, helps me understand. I have a long way to go in learning this arena. Thanks mate!
Exactly what I needed to hear. Was a horrible Dec and Jan is struggling to get traction. Just have to plug along. Like you said though, it is hard to wake up in the morning knowing you are not winning. It is a hit to the pride to lower bet size to preserve bankroll. Just have to play the smart plays and keep trucking.
Glad it could help. You’re exactly right, keep grinding man you’ll get it back and then some!
how were Feb and march ?
@@bjornbohley A slog for positive EV. I have transitioned to more Arbitrage betting now. It isn't as flashy but it is a steady cash flow. I have managed to build my bankroll over what it was at it's previous high. I just could not deal with the long losing streaks I ran into. It happens with positive EV. It is just an odds game after all. It was a personal thing. I might come back to it but just not right now.
@@edt765hey bro do you mind sharing a few tips about how you are arbing without getting limited/detected. i really want to try but i dont want to just get limited right away
I’ve been doing ev betting! I’ve made 10k a month for the last 6 months doing it so far, increasing my unit sizes every month or so. It’s been great!!
Keep it up brother! Love to hear that!
that's outstanding...do u have any tips...what amt did u begin with?
Just started with EV betting, and I am finding your channel super useful so far! Would you mind if I gave some constructive feedback somehow? Adding music is great, it's just very loud and it's difficult to pick up on all the tips that you give, which is a shame :) I really don't mean it negatively at all, and saying it because of your experience and the effort you spend producing these videos. And I wish you success with your channel. Just my 2 cents. Aside from that, great stuff mate!
That’s exactly what I needed to hear, without your feedback I would just blindly keep doing the same thing, so thank you so much for that. Moving forward I will make sure to lower it quite a bit so that you can receive all the information I provide. I appreciate it!
God bless you!!! I am so sick and tired of everyone gushing over +EV and never saying anything about the negatives. I've been super successful with arbing the last 5 1/2 years and between "variance" and "long run", I just can't see doing ev betting. And I don't like how it's "sold", like you are guaranteed to win (showing all their profits) yet mumbling about.."well, you will lose sometimes, but in the long rub, you will win." What happens if u just can't make it to the end of that "long run"??? Thanks for the video.
Exactly! I’m glad you found the video insightful. I do love plus EV betting, but I completely understand the drawbacks and negatives to it. There’s absolutely no guarantee, and there is a lot of major sacrifices you have to make.
Arb betting is good but too much can go wrong with not getting both bets in and just like ev u can get limited faster betting perfect numbers for arb like 22.82 so u get best profit instead of one unit whatever that may be and it's more time consuming
Also the long run never ends and maintaining so your always betting is up to bankroll management
Yeah, to take a safer approach you just have to eat a little bit of a loss in order to have a nice round number and that gets easier as you start wagering more per side.
Facts, I’m surprised you made it 5 years arbing
I'm in that variant period right now.. I been struggling the past couple months.. did great during the olympics but fell off after that
There’s nothing worse than that because you feel like every bet loses, it’s so difficult
At last someone who shows the full picture regarding restrictions and variances
Nobody talks about it but it's very real!
@@BillyC24 Some are too busy trying to sell certain software and claim there commission rather than give a full picture. So respect to you. The monthly fees for Oddsjam and Rebel betting are big. You need to fully understand all the ups and downs before committing. I'm based in the UK. If I could fully access all USA bookies and Pinnacle I would gladly sign up for Oddsjam or Rebel betting. I have the time and long term with good bank management it has been profitable for myself. But bookmaker restrictions killed it for me. Pointless betting to small stakes (if that's even allowed by most bookmakers) when you look at the monthly software fees.
You mentioned being divorced and unable to produce an heir as positives to EV betting ... Any suggestions on how to distance myself from my wife and son so i can be successful too?
Work called and they need you to go on a special assignment for two weeks. I’ll think of some others.
You mentioned that books often limit you within 2-3 weeks to a month. If that's the case, how are you and others able to EV bet in the long term? how can 6-12 months of EV betting become profitable if you get limited within a month? Do you use friends/family accounts to bet?
The soft books will limit you very quickly and they will make it almost impossible to get any action down on the markets you always bet in. Examples of those books are Bet Rivers, Fanatics, Bally Bet, Betway. Books like BetMGM, Draft Kings, Hard Rock it takes a much longer time (months) and the limits they impose aren’t too harsh from the start.
I’ve made decent money on EV but thinking of switching over to arbing. Say I can make a guaranteed 0.25% profit on my bankroll daily, then reinvest the profit into my bankroll so that it compounds daily, it would clear 100% in annual profit risk free. I like the sound of that
Exactly! Love that logic!
@@BillyC24 How were you able to go so long without getting limited? 875k wagered is crazy, I wish I could hit that number but I’m already getting limited after 2 weeks
@@brianmarch4219 I started using this strategy in the video. th-cam.com/video/EjqqD3DvdwA/w-d-xo.htmlsi=lIlVwCFb0UVBz7j8
Finally. Someone talking about the negs
Yeah I’ll be creating some more videos on the downsides of all of this so keep it locked!
What are your thoughts on people creating their own models opposed to only using ev betting? Also, where would someone start. (Asking for a friend) 🙂
Hahaha so if you understand how they get to the projection then I'm all for it or if you've had success then I agree it's well worth it. I'm smart enough to know I'm not smart enough to create one. Most people won't give you that transparency so you can understand how the model works. I feel creating a model is so difficult to do but a good model is a game changer.
What are some tips to not get limited? Heard some say to play a parley or two a week for low amounts to throw off the books.
I can’t honestly tell you that this works but “warming” up an account helps so placing main line bets like Celtics Moneyline or betting the over on the Suns game minutes before tip off helps. Betting parlays also helps. No idea on how long you need to execute this strategy probably a few weeks. Over the course of time though the books will see that you are beating the closing line value and making money off them. That’s not the type of customer they want so getting limited will happen. Though books like DK, Fan Duel, Ceasars will let you still bet a lot of money on plays even if you are limited. It’s just the soft books like bet rivers, BetMGM that will kick you out.
Checkout Mr liiimited
Have you done any videos on live arbing?
I haven't but I would LOVE to because it's all the rage right now. I'm working on it!
Looking forward to a future video on it if you try it out!@@BillyC24
I want to be able to successfully show you guys how to do it andddddd that part has been a bit tricky for me to figure out. Appreciate you
Excellent video! Nailed buddy!
Thanks brother!
I’m 3 weeks in to ev betting. I’m 195-195 so 50percent win rate. I only take plays that are between +120 and -150 odds and historically have a 50 percent chance of hitting as it’s mainly been nba player props with some tennis and hockey that show up. Try and keep market width under 50. Anyways I’m down 5ish units so far. It is frustrating cause I have an amazing day then two shitty days and it seems like that happens every time hahahaha
Thanks for sharing, yeah the swings are tough to deal with. You feel you’re stuck in this rut and can’t get out.
Bro try lowering your width! On game props I only like to do 25 or 30 max width. Player props I set to 40 as those are harder to come by. I’ve started winning a whole lot more since making the switch
sick quality vid bc! love it!
Appreciate it!
Great video on +EV betting.
Thank you! I’m looking to make more videos, talking about the negatives and downsides in the future
yup got limited really quick
Was it arbitrage or plus ev betting that got you limited?
Wow I've never even heard of any of those books except Pinnacle maybe not legal in il and I technically work for ESPN bet so I can't use them is bet rivers dk fanduel bet MGM and ceasers enough books for me to try positive ev betting?
Those are plenty enough books for you to try +EV betting they will offer you a lot of different opportunities. What state are you located in?
@@BillyC24 I'm in Illinois me and coworkers hoping for 365 soon
365 is an absolute gold mine! As long as you have accounts with two different sports books or more, you can make money plus EV betting
Variance has kicked my ass Dec and especially Jan..... By I'm still hitting 70 percent closing line so I know this is just a little down trend.
It is but man it’s hard to go to sleep every night thinking “I’m doing the right thing just stay the course”. Much easier said than done, you got this brother!
@@BillyC24 I started last Jan with 1k. Ran it up to over 5k. Worst thing that happened to me was up until Dec my worst month was March and I lost a whooping 6.13
Then variance hit in Dec and I lost 481 and Jan down 1k so far. I know that it's variance taking it's course.
I was getting frustrated and spoke with a couple of reps and pulled my numbers and I know that I'm not doing anything wrong which is refreshing but still sucks. Down 1k this month when expected is 750 up....
However last year had 4,015 bets, 100,997 for amount bet, beat the closing line 71 percent won 49 percent profit 5108.
Just recently found ur channel and it has definitely help ease my mind. Ty so much
Glad I can help, it can be very frustrating knowing you're not doing anything wrong but you're on the wrong end of it. We're in this together!
@@BillyC24 I saw one of your videos and you mentioned that you do flat betting instead of Kelley if I'm not mistaken. Why is that?
I've been using the Kelly method since September. I'm a big fan of it and it's working out well for me. I need to make a new video updating everyone on what I'm using.
Annoying background music
Thanks Phil, noted.
Hey now, don’t say “nobody talks about” 🤭
You're video was incredible on this! It truly was the sole motivating factor for me to make this one! Love you're content and keeping creating!