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I think to a degree, sabermetrics have something to do with it too. From the top down, there's been this obsession with "third time through the order = bad". Starting pitchers these days ramp up the velocity knowing they won't be on the mound for much more than 100 pitches and/or 5-6 innings. So knowing they're going to have shorter outings, they go completely all out. Using my Diamondbacks as an example: Schilling and Johnson would generally go deep into games (7-8 innings) with pitch counts between 110-130 and they never got injured for anything related to overuse. Brandon Webb, even, was constantly getting deeper into games albeit his career was prematurely cut short by a shoulder injury. Nowadays, Zac Gallen is considered the Diamondbacks ace, but he almost never goes past 6 innings yet most seasons he's been on the team, he's had at least one IL stint. The starting pitcher is sadly going the way of the NFL running back these days. I personally think we've already seen our last 300 game winner, maybe even 250. Gone are the epic postseason performances of aces like Schilling, Johnson, Smoltz, Jack Morris and for a more recent example, Madison Bumgarner. In fact, in the 2023 playoffs, Brandon Pfaadt was dealing against the Dodgers, facing the minimum through the first four innings, but the moment he gives up a hit, despite having a 3-0 lead, he gets pulled after just shy of 5 innings with his pitch count in the 60's. How is a starter supposed to have a starter's mentality and build endurance with that type of strategy?
Goose Gossage was making this same point. With pitch counts and all that, it makes pitchers "weaker" and they aren't able to get better, stronger, etc. It used to be a sense of pride for pitchers to "finish what they started" and pitch a whole game. Gone are those days
How about Fernando Valenzuela, "El Toro", R.I.P. Fernando died this year 10/22/24, 3 days before the World series rematch of Dodgers/Yankees. He performed the ceremonial 1st pitch, they put a baseball on the rubber with his number on it. He pitched 149 pitches in the 1981 World series, Dodgers were down 2 games-0 against Yankees, he pitched the screw ball (mean break to it) which no one used anymore, and the breaking ball, back then they said he threw it hard at 91 mph. Commentators, Al Michaels, Jim Palmer and Howard Cosell. He got hit on in the 1st and 2nd inning and Tommy Lasorda was going to pull him. Fernando said no let me stay in and went on to pitch 7 scoreless innings. Legendary. He went on to have a long Carrer, pitching into his 40's.
I remember back in 1963, Juan Marichal and Warren Spahn went toe to toe for 16 innings. Juan threw 227 pitches, and Warren did 201. By the way, Juan was 25, and Warren was 42. This kind of pitching masterpiece will never be seen again. Unless they bring back intelligent pitching and not just speed. I believe being smarter is better than being stronger
Brodie I get what you mean about pitch counts but also look at Tim Lincecum. His career was cut short because of the insane innings he was forced to throw.
There is no pitching, there's just a bunch of guys throwing as hard as they can/with as much spin+stuff as possible on each and every pitch, even on changeups. No one knows how to add and subtract... until and unless pitching goes back to, well, pitching, the injury issues will continue
Starts at the youth level and travel baseball. These kids play baseball 10 months out of the year. Also, this is before the arm / shoulder has fully developed at those ages. So they enter high school level with many more innings already straining those muscles and joints versus previous generations.
I wonder if conditioning programs may be partly at fault? Are pitchers spending too much time in the weight room, bulking up enough that it affects their flexibility and stamina? Why did pitchers in the seventies and before complete so many games? Some starters in those days would pitch more complete games in one season than an entire league does now.
I've been a baseball fan since my youth in the 60's and 70's. It boils down to really 2 things. Postage stamp strike zones, and pitchers over throwing, with all kinds of weird deliveries. Pitchers mechanics have been terrible for years, due to over throwing. The pitchers of 60's had strike zones from the knees to armpits. Curve balls were called strikes that didn't have to be down the middle. Another way to get the high strike back in is to have the home plate umpire use the old balloon protectors. Umps would naturally position a little higher.
Their training/rehab is highly likely GARBAGE. Injuries, especially non-contact injuries, have been increasing across basketball & football also. They’re good at identifying the problem, but horrible at solving it.
Pitchers now have 5-6 or more pitches; the spin rates are insane. The Mph is crazy. So yes, the arm is going to give out, not uncommon to have 2 Tommy Johns. Pitchers now are only going 2 times through the lineups. Teams need to have a whole stable of pitchers in the minors to come up as needed. I could see teams eventually going to a 6-man rotation to spread the load.
The career-ending arm problems of many pitchers from previous generations were caused by the constant expectation to pitch complete games. I know that many want to blame Carl Hubbell's career-ending arm problems on his regular use of the screwball, but they overlook the expectation for him to pitch complete games. Many overlook the career-ending arm problems of Sandy Koufax being caused by his high-velocity fastball, his exaggerated overhand delivery (even when throwing curveballs), & the expectation for him to pitch complete games. The career-ending arm problems of Don Drysdale, Juan Marichal, & most other pitchers from the past was because of the expectation of pitching complete games. I'm baffled by the fact that managers & pitching coaches in past generations knew that any pitcher who faced the batting order for a 3rd time was more vulnerable to giving up more walks, hits, & runs. Even then, they still insisted that the starting pitcher remain in the game. They were doing a disservice to those pitchers. The arm problems of pitchers today are more commonly endured by power pitchers who face the batting order for two full turns, or more, in any game. This is a very rare problem for finesse pitchers who face the batting order twice; & power pitchers who face the batting order once, or less. I remember reading the infamous Sports Illustrated issue in 2002 that discussed steroids in baseball. The article even mentioned one un-named pitcher who wanted to throw at high velocity, & didn't care if he walked every hitter he faced. This should give you an idea of the over-emphasis on pitch velocity, even at that time. If I was the owner of an MLB team, & found that a pitcher on my main roster or in my minor-league system had that mentality, then I would release him. That same article showed that Ken Caminiti's steroid use & frequent weight training helped him build muscles that could no longer be supported by his joints, ligaments, & tendons. The weight training (in baseball) needs to be reduced by a sizeable degree. For as long as I can remember, pitchers (finesse, or, power, or etc.) were expected to throw 100 pitches, followed by four days rest. This means that for every 25 pitches thrown, that pitcher gets a day off. In my view, finesse pitchers are the only ones who should (usually) pitch against the batting order twice, or for roughly 75 to 80 pitches, whichever comes first. That outing should be followed by three days rest. There should also be times where those same pitchers face the batting order once, followed by two days rest. Most other pitchers should generally face the batting order only once. Few other pitchers (the ones who have fastballs of 97+ mph) should generally not pitch more than one inning. Of course, few exceptions can be made. Throwing hard is overvalued, & pitching complete games is overly glamorized.
This analytics era and way of thinking is killing it all. Pitchers used to last because they used tried and true training methods for decades. Now, with every damn thing measured under a monstrous magnifying glass, people are getting more hurt. More training does not mean better.
Starting Pitchers in MLB are where NFL Running Backs were 20 years ago in terms of being overinjured and overvalued. I don't think anything but a speed limit will do much to stop injuries and I think it is much more likely the SP role goes away than a speed limit goes into effect. With 13 pitchers on the roster, how long until a forward thinking (baseball wise) team like the Rays just stop using pitchers more than once through the order? I think about this stuff a lot while the Mariners refuse to trade their biggest assets.
See what raising the seams on the baseball would do. Slower speed on the pitch with raised seams over the same given distance will give you more ball movement.
Very interesting. I hope they can make some changes to improve and lengthen pitcher careers. I wonder. Did the study look at fall league or winter league action? I know some players have done either or both after the end of the regular season. I’m curious if not throwing from the end of the season until they report to spring training is helpful or harmful. I noticed that injuries on the one slide, figure 8, were tracked from Feb to Sept/Oct, but it left me wondering if not pitching for 3-4 months hurts them or helps them.
Does the pitch clock have some part in this? I know you want to speed up the game but can forcing pitchers to hurry up cause more problems with their arm?
What about position players having non-contact TJ surgeries? I wonder how many of them were youth pitchers, pitching too much and with a focus on velo.
There is a huge blind spot in this analysis. The problem is the focus on hard throwing pitchers and how analytics pressures player to develop skills that analytics can easily measure. When was the last time you heard of a control pitcher that had consistent injury problems? Injuries happening less during the seasons is no surprise… several factors are obvious: the first major exertion happens after the end of the off season, those injury prone will get weeded out in or before spring training, and pitcher count management and roster moves probably reduce injury possibility.
Too many pitchers throwing 99mph or higher or the pitching clock has destroyed their arms resulting more Tommy Johns Baseball should reduce the number of pre-season games from 30 to 10.
In my humble opinion those kids are being coached to throw way too much junk at too early an age and it doesn't get better as those kids move up in baseball . The Oakland A's once had a pitcher Shintaro Fuginami I believe.Fugi came from a team in Japan who was left in a game in Japan when he was having a horrid day but his coach left him in there til he threw 160 pitches and Fugis control was way off when he got picked up by the A's .
Sixteen minor league pitchers threw over 100 minor league innings in 2024. Less than half threw MLB innings, too. That doesn't include any pitchers who may have thrown over 100 in the minors and majors. They are being groomed to throw five innings, or as you said, twice through the order.
Risk and reward is the way it is. The greater the risk the more you shorten a pitcher’s sustainability so there is a turnover of talent. The reward is financial gain long term on paper usually ending in Tommy John surgery for a period of time. Baseball is pussyfoot baseball. Thanks Manfred.
Football could insert rules that were enforceable to slow down head injuries. I don't see what rules baseball could insert that would be enforceable. Kick a pitcher out if he throws over 95 MPH in a game, ten times?
They'll figure it out in the next few years. They have to. After all, they are paying a lot of these guys over $20 million per year. It's in everyone's best interest to protect and preserve their assets/investment in player health and sustainability. A team will eventually develop a whole new innovative approach that works or is at least worth a try... The next moneyball concept or like ehat the Rays did with their rotation for a few years. Some team will eventually adapt and lead the pack.
The problem is...medicine got too advanced for baseball. Guys get surgery and come back pitching the same or even better. Seemed to always be a negative 20 years ago. Since it's not a career ender, teams don't care.
Too much emphasis on speed. May as well just start a game in the 7th. Note: starters of the past used to talk about how they pitch better when they are a bit tired. They tended to be A"looser" at that point. Bert Blyleven for example would throw close to 300 innings in many of his seasons. I'm in agreement. I miss a pitchers league.
glasnow from the dodgers mentioned balls too slick and needing to squeezing it tighter. it'd be nice to have a ball with some standarized tackiness like the japanese league and see how that plays out
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I think to a degree, sabermetrics have something to do with it too. From the top down, there's been this obsession with "third time through the order = bad". Starting pitchers these days ramp up the velocity knowing they won't be on the mound for much more than 100 pitches and/or 5-6 innings. So knowing they're going to have shorter outings, they go completely all out. Using my Diamondbacks as an example: Schilling and Johnson would generally go deep into games (7-8 innings) with pitch counts between 110-130 and they never got injured for anything related to overuse. Brandon Webb, even, was constantly getting deeper into games albeit his career was prematurely cut short by a shoulder injury. Nowadays, Zac Gallen is considered the Diamondbacks ace, but he almost never goes past 6 innings yet most seasons he's been on the team, he's had at least one IL stint. The starting pitcher is sadly going the way of the NFL running back these days. I personally think we've already seen our last 300 game winner, maybe even 250. Gone are the epic postseason performances of aces like Schilling, Johnson, Smoltz, Jack Morris and for a more recent example, Madison Bumgarner. In fact, in the 2023 playoffs, Brandon Pfaadt was dealing against the Dodgers, facing the minimum through the first four innings, but the moment he gives up a hit, despite having a 3-0 lead, he gets pulled after just shy of 5 innings with his pitch count in the 60's. How is a starter supposed to have a starter's mentality and build endurance with that type of strategy?
Goose Gossage was making this same point. With pitch counts and all that, it makes pitchers "weaker" and they aren't able to get better, stronger, etc. It used to be a sense of pride for pitchers to "finish what they started" and pitch a whole game. Gone are those days
Then: velocity, movement, location, change of speed
Now: velocity, velocity, velocity, velocity
Nope.
The movement is as much a problem-maybe more so-than the velocity. Who throws a straight fastball today?
And spin, spin, spin.
Naw, it's the damn spin rates.
I do believe taking starters out earlier is playing a part in pitchers getting injuried. They don't have the stamina that they used to have.
How about Fernando Valenzuela, "El Toro", R.I.P. Fernando died this year 10/22/24, 3 days before the World series rematch of Dodgers/Yankees. He performed the ceremonial 1st pitch, they put a baseball on the rubber with his number on it. He pitched 149 pitches in the 1981 World series, Dodgers were down 2 games-0 against Yankees, he pitched the screw ball (mean break to it) which no one used anymore, and the breaking ball, back then they said he threw it hard at 91 mph. Commentators, Al Michaels, Jim Palmer and Howard Cosell. He got hit on in the 1st and 2nd inning and Tommy Lasorda was going to pull him. Fernando said no let me stay in and went on to pitch 7 scoreless innings. Legendary. He went on to have a long Carrer, pitching into his 40's.
Don Sutton never got hurt because he had about the best mechanics of any pitcher ever. Sutton doesn't get credit for that.
I have been saying for years that once Scherzer, Verlander and Kershaw get into the HOF, no more starting pitchers will make it.
Those pitchers you mentioned, what are their first names?
@@stephcarlofc,
Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander and Clayton Kershaw.
I remember back in 1963, Juan Marichal and Warren Spahn went toe to toe for 16 innings. Juan threw 227 pitches, and Warren did 201. By the way, Juan was 25, and Warren was 42. This kind of pitching masterpiece will never be seen again. Unless they bring back intelligent pitching and not just speed. I believe being smarter is better than being stronger
Would it really be smarter to let a starter go 16 innings and throw 200+ pitches in todays game?
Brodie I get what you mean about pitch counts but also look at Tim Lincecum. His career was cut short because of the insane innings he was forced to throw.
The velocity on his fastball was also a major contributor.
There is no pitching, there's just a bunch of guys throwing as hard as they can/with as much spin+stuff as possible on each and every pitch, even on changeups. No one knows how to add and subtract... until and unless pitching goes back to, well, pitching, the injury issues will continue
Starts at the youth level and travel baseball. These kids play baseball 10 months out of the year. Also, this is before the arm / shoulder has fully developed at those ages.
So they enter high school level with many more innings already straining those muscles and joints versus previous generations.
This is why Logan Webb and George Kirby are my fav pitchers currently.. Even though they have strikeout stuff, they pitch to get weak contact
I wonder if conditioning programs may be partly at fault? Are pitchers spending too much time in the weight room, bulking up enough that it affects their flexibility and stamina? Why did pitchers in the seventies and before complete so many games? Some starters in those days would pitch more complete games in one season than an entire league does now.
Dr Keith Meister, the #1 TJ surgeon in MLB, says the elbow epidemic is a combo of velocity and pitch selection
Which pitches?
I've been a baseball fan since my youth in the 60's and 70's. It boils down to really 2 things. Postage stamp strike zones, and pitchers over throwing, with all kinds of weird deliveries. Pitchers mechanics have been terrible for years, due to over throwing. The pitchers of 60's had strike zones from the knees to armpits. Curve balls were called strikes that didn't have to be down the middle. Another way to get the high strike back in is to have the home plate umpire use the old balloon protectors. Umps would naturally position a little higher.
Their training/rehab is highly likely GARBAGE. Injuries, especially non-contact injuries, have been increasing across basketball & football also. They’re good at identifying the problem, but horrible at solving it.
Pitchers now have 5-6 or more pitches; the spin rates are insane. The Mph is crazy. So yes, the arm is going to give out, not uncommon to have 2 Tommy Johns. Pitchers now are only going 2 times through the lineups. Teams need to have a whole stable of pitchers in the minors to come up as needed. I could see teams eventually going to a 6-man rotation to spread the load.
The career-ending arm problems of many pitchers from previous generations were caused by the constant expectation to pitch complete games. I know that many want to blame Carl Hubbell's career-ending arm problems on his regular use of the screwball, but they overlook the expectation for him to pitch complete games.
Many overlook the career-ending arm problems of Sandy Koufax being caused by his high-velocity fastball, his exaggerated overhand delivery (even when throwing curveballs), & the expectation for him to pitch complete games.
The career-ending arm problems of Don Drysdale, Juan Marichal, & most other pitchers from the past was because of the expectation of pitching complete games.
I'm baffled by the fact that managers & pitching coaches in past generations knew that any pitcher who faced the batting order for a 3rd time was more vulnerable to giving up more walks, hits, & runs. Even then, they still insisted that the starting pitcher remain in the game. They were doing a disservice to those pitchers.
The arm problems of pitchers today are more commonly endured by power pitchers who face the batting order for two full turns, or more, in any game. This is a very rare problem for finesse pitchers who face the batting order twice; & power pitchers who face the batting order once, or less.
I remember reading the infamous Sports Illustrated issue in 2002 that discussed steroids in baseball. The article even mentioned one un-named pitcher who wanted to throw at high velocity, & didn't care if he walked every hitter he faced. This should give you an idea of the over-emphasis on pitch velocity, even at that time. If I was the owner of an MLB team, & found that a pitcher on my main roster or in my minor-league system had that mentality, then I would release him. That same article showed that Ken Caminiti's steroid use & frequent weight training helped him build muscles that could no longer be supported by his joints, ligaments, & tendons. The weight training (in baseball) needs to be reduced by a sizeable degree.
For as long as I can remember, pitchers (finesse, or, power, or etc.) were expected to throw 100 pitches, followed by four days rest. This means that for every 25 pitches thrown, that pitcher gets a day off.
In my view, finesse pitchers are the only ones who should (usually) pitch against the batting order twice, or for roughly 75 to 80 pitches, whichever comes first. That outing should be followed by three days rest. There should also be times where those same pitchers face the batting order once, followed by two days rest.
Most other pitchers should generally face the batting order only once. Few other pitchers (the ones who have fastballs of 97+ mph) should generally not pitch more than one inning. Of course, few exceptions can be made.
Throwing hard is overvalued, & pitching complete games is overly glamorized.
This analytics era and way of thinking is killing it all. Pitchers used to last because they used tried and true training methods for decades. Now, with every damn thing measured under a monstrous magnifying glass, people are getting more hurt. More training does not mean better.
Starting Pitchers in MLB are where NFL Running Backs were 20 years ago in terms of being overinjured and overvalued. I don't think anything but a speed limit will do much to stop injuries and I think it is much more likely the SP role goes away than a speed limit goes into effect. With 13 pitchers on the roster, how long until a forward thinking (baseball wise) team like the Rays just stop using pitchers more than once through the order? I think about this stuff a lot while the Mariners refuse to trade their biggest assets.
See what raising the seams on the baseball would do. Slower speed on the pitch with raised seams over the same given distance will give you more ball movement.
Raise the mound back to 1969 height and move it back 6 inches
Verlander and Scherer are the last of the dying breed. They're currently running on fumes and may have thrown their last ML pitch.
Kershaw too
Very interesting. I hope they can make some changes to improve and lengthen pitcher careers.
I wonder. Did the study look at fall league or winter league action? I know some players have done either or both after the end of the regular season. I’m curious if not throwing from the end of the season until they report to spring training is helpful or harmful. I noticed that injuries on the one slide, figure 8, were tracked from Feb to Sept/Oct, but it left me wondering if not pitching for 3-4 months hurts them or helps them.
Does the pitch clock have some part in this? I know you want to speed up the game but can forcing pitchers to hurry up cause more problems with their arm?
This has been an ongoing problem long before the pitch clock was instituted.
What about position players having non-contact TJ surgeries? I wonder how many of them were youth pitchers, pitching too much and with a focus on velo.
There is a huge blind spot in this analysis. The problem is the focus on hard throwing pitchers and how analytics pressures player to develop skills that analytics can easily measure. When was the last time you heard of a control pitcher that had consistent injury problems?
Injuries happening less during the seasons is no surprise… several factors are obvious: the first major exertion happens after the end of the off season, those injury prone will get weeded out in or before spring training, and pitcher count management and roster moves probably reduce injury possibility.
finally it about time . i been saying this thru out 2024.
Great Reporting. Sharks made a great choice
Good video
Pretty easy to identify the sources of injuries. Really not surprising. The solution? Yikes that seems so much more complicated!
No emphasis on location and smarts anymore. It’s all about “stuff”
This is why I don't have a problem with the Giants not resigning Snell. Can't help the team if you're hurt a lot
Too many pitchers throwing 99mph or higher or the pitching clock has destroyed their arms resulting more Tommy Johns
Baseball should reduce the number of pre-season games from 30 to 10.
I'm sure that the pitch clock doesn't help
Instead of starting at the top, they should start at the bottom.
Why would I throw 90% effort* in game if I can locate at 100% effort and get paid more???
ADMITS?
How could they have denied it? Pitchers pitch less, get hurt more, have longer careers. Hard to argue otherwise.
In my humble opinion those kids are being coached to throw way too much junk at too early an age and it doesn't get better as those kids move up in baseball . The Oakland A's once had a pitcher Shintaro Fuginami I believe.Fugi came from a team in Japan who was left in a game in Japan when he was having a horrid day but his coach left him in there til he threw 160 pitches and Fugis control was way off when he got picked up by the A's .
Exactly correct. And its travel teams. These kids are too young and playing almost year round.
Ohtani and Kershaw
The 9 second pitch record are pushing them too hard and therefore are that they have to rush. Then that is what are injuring is coming from
This has been going on longer than the pitch clock has been in effect.
Sixteen minor league pitchers threw over 100 minor league innings in 2024. Less than half threw MLB innings, too. That doesn't include any pitchers who may have thrown over 100 in the minors and majors. They are being groomed to throw five innings, or as you said, twice through the order.
Teach ‘em all how to throw knuckleballs!
Risk and reward is the way it is. The greater the risk the more you shorten a pitcher’s sustainability so there is a turnover of talent. The reward is financial gain long term on paper usually ending in Tommy John surgery for a period of time. Baseball is pussyfoot baseball. Thanks Manfred.
Football could insert rules that were enforceable to slow down head injuries. I don't see what rules baseball could insert that would be enforceable. Kick a pitcher out if he throws over 95 MPH in a game, ten times?
Move the mound back 6 inches and raise height back to 1968 level
Raising the mound height might help by itself.
They'll figure it out in the next few years. They have to. After all, they are paying a lot of these guys over $20 million per year. It's in everyone's best interest to protect and preserve their assets/investment in player health and sustainability. A team will eventually develop a whole new innovative approach that works or is at least worth a try... The next moneyball concept or like ehat the Rays did with their rotation for a few years. Some team will eventually adapt and lead the pack.
The problem is...medicine got too advanced for baseball. Guys get surgery and come back pitching the same or even better. Seemed to always be a negative 20 years ago.
Since it's not a career ender, teams don't care.
Too much emphasis on speed. May as well just start a game in the 7th. Note: starters of the past used to talk about how they pitch better when they are a bit tired. They tended to be A"looser" at that point. Bert Blyleven for example would throw close to 300 innings in many of his seasons. I'm in agreement. I miss a pitchers league.
glasnow from the dodgers mentioned balls too slick and needing to squeezing it tighter. it'd be nice to have a ball with some standarized tackiness like the japanese league and see how that plays out
When your incentive is 45m per year your bodies health becomes a short term factor. If your paid well you can afford to burn out, sadly.