I want to make myself clear when I talk about the bourbon market. I dont just mean the allocated and LE's . That only makes up a very small percentage of the total bourbon,whiskey, and rye market. In fact, that only makes up about 10% of what the distilleries put out. I've been answering a lot of questions in the comments, and i'm getting the feeling that everyone thinks I'm only talking about allocated products. The allocated market drop in price is only one of the metrics used to calculate a shift in the entire market. The people purchasing allocated products tend to have a higher level of expendable income, which in turn if they are slowing down on their purchases.The average person Has nearly stopped or has completely stopped their purchases of low end products Which accounts for the majority of the gross profit from the distilleries
A large segment of the secondary market was contingent on gatekeeping these bottles from people for exactly that reason. The majority of bourbon is going to be pretty indiscernible to the majority of drinkers. With obvious exceptions like wheated bourbon, rye and finished bourbons. It's funny that one of the budget bonded bourbons you can buy for under $30 will more than likely be more memorable to you than some 'Unicorn' bottle.
Facts. The only truly allocated bottle I hunt is Stagg, but I also replace it with JDSBBP on the regular to conserve the bottles of it I do have. TBH the Jack is better mostly. 😬😅
The market ain’t crashing. People are just broke and tired of paying secondary because they are actually starting to value the juice win the bottle. When you put a value on the juice you will see it’s not worth secondary.
The problem is secondary is a big part of the market. A Core part of how BT/Sazerac is able to use stuff like BTAC and PVW is because of their insane secondary value/demand gets stores to over-buy the lower tier. Ancient Age/Benchmark/Wheatley/Fireball/whatever else high margin but low cost product definitely gets you on the favor list to eventually get the highest of high tier. Part of the reason you see a lot of whiskey-centric liquor stores/stores that work the system have almost specials on low tier Sazerac/Brown-Forman/Beam/HH/whoever product is to make sweet with the reps for the good stuff, selling the low tier nearly at cost/at a price to shift high volume just to work the numbers on their accounts. That secondary/demand drop will absolutely affect the rest of the spirits market as a whole.
Tech tip, you tend to stop buying at ridiculous prices if you actually open the bottle! Thanks for the update! Happy to see some more allocated bottles popping up more in my area for a decent price.
I have never purchased at secondary prices. My reasoning is this, the manufacturer says that their product is worth "X" amount, why would I feel the need to pay more? The folks that made, aged, bottled and shipped the product think it is worth a certain price, who am I to say differently. Yes, I understand that a lot of items on secondary are limited, and that adds to the collectability aspect of that product, but I don't buy whiskey to collect, so that means nothing to me. Would I like to have some of those bottles? Of course, but I will take my chances with my local store and their drawings.
Yup, this ____ bourbon is good, but is it $100-$200+ good. Meh. Same happened to beer. I've had a lot of hard to get beers , (at the time $800 in secondary beers), and while they were pretty damn Delicious, did I think it was it $37 an ounce of beer Delicious. No lol.
Yea i think this makes sense. All of these dudes who are sitting on tons of bottles, aren't buying anymore because they can't sell it or they already have so much stock that it doesn't matter. No need to buy a bottle of Blantons if you have 5 unopened bottles at home. The hording has come to effect the market.
Barrel makes my absolute favorite bottles. Seagrass, Vantage, their regular batches. I have never disliked anything I had from them. I hope they stay afloat.
If you got into this hobby to flip bottles or build up a collection to liquidate later on it as an investment, you got in for the wrong reasons…. Re: Barrell, another weird sign, they used to do like 4 batch releases a year. I feel like it has been +/- 8 months since batch 35. Re: Heaven Hill. Saw an article that they were laying off warehouse employees recently. In my area, I’ve seen stacks of product that we haven’t seen for years starting to come back into stores….Woodford batch proof, 1792 full proof, SB, & BiB….Elijah Craig Toasted, Larceny BP, even some ECBP releases are sitting on shelves. I think you’re right, people are generally scaling back on their bottle purchases and the distilleries are probably still pumping them out like we’re in 2020.
I looked at my "collection" and felt silly being a grown man with that much juice. Gave away about 90 bottles to good friends. Kept 5 bottles and will keep it at 5. No more FOMO and chasing bottles. What's cool is that a couple of buddies that I have bottles to shared pours of stuff I've never seen on the shelf or would never pay for. Sharing is caring!
I’ve had some luck going to museums and writing down cash offers for bottles they have at full secondary. I split the difference between secondary and MSRP, or offer to take multiple at just above MSRP. Has worked well a few times now.
Just look at the stacked up CASES in ALOT of the big retailers!!! i think your going to see a ton of AGED juice on the market in the next year or two 🤔 👍🥃😉Cheers 😊
Funny story Four Roses 2021and 2022 LE releases just became available in Tennessee. The store owner told me he was postive amd had it on good authority that it was FR sitting on these not the distributor. Same thing in Arizona tons of old Stagg bathces hit a couple of weeks ago. Prices are just starting to drop locally.
Respectfully disagree with your take on this. Are prices falling? Yes, but 25% increases annually was NEVER sustainable. I wouldn't call it a crash. I live in northern New Jersey and the secondary market is still STRONG. Allocated bottles are still expensive! Prices are leveling off and are no longer increasing but NOBODY is paying less than $1k for a George T. Stagg ---- I would LOVE a reference to where it is $700 or less. I think supply and demand will dictate lower prices in our future, but remember --- inflation is still STRONG in our economy! Prices at the grocery stores are still high and in other aspects of our lives. Thanks for putting out this content Bourbon Dude --- healthy conversation is good for everyone. Cheers to all!
Totally appreciate the comment. I've been in the spirit industry in some capacity for the last 20 years And I can tell you this.Things are not looking good for a lot of the distilleries. I can't give exact quotes from the people who have told me this, but they are in extremely high up positions in these companies. ( Tax man is coming and products are not moving) They ramped up production so much that they're setting on a lot of product in the Rickhouse and now that there is a cooling in market they are looking at not being able to pay the taxes that accrue each year on each barrel. That doesn't even account for 35% of the market Shifting to tequila and rum.
@@thatbourbondudethis huge supply will be more of an impact to the crowded craft distillers, barrel source brands, and commodity brands Much less so for impact on the highly allocated well aged stated products
@@customer9845 I am working my way through a few of them. I have found a few that I really like. I have a buddy that's been in the game for a while and shares a lot of the harder to get stuff with me. I am grateful because it shows me that some of those allocated bottles are just not worth the hunt to me. I appreciate the experience we have over those bottles, but they won't be in my cart anytime soon.
I say its not crashing per say, more like stabilizing, it was way too low for many years, where you couldn't give bourbon away, then it went way to far the other way, through the roof, for many years.... but now with production up, more options/distilleries we should settle into a reasonable price point. Yeah there are still going to be unicorns you cannot find, but more and more I am finding bottles that just a few years ago were allocated, now are just sitting on the shelves. The economy certainly has a lot to do with this, when you cant afford groceries and gas, you are not spending money on Bourbon.
Nice dude, great coverage and thoughts. I love bourbon but have burnt out on hunting so this really resonates with me. Still love bourbon but got tired of the hype train culture.
Thanks, buddy. I wanted to do something that other channels aren't covering, and I felt this was the best way to show a different side of bourbon culture.
Went to two drops yesterday. At the first one I went to, only 20 people showed up. Out of those 20 only 2 or 3 bought anything. The store was at full secondary. The owner asked why we weren't buying, and we said because she was too expensive. The next drop I went to sold everything at about MSRP. They SOLD OUT
I’m seeing less allocated stuff, so no one is getting to buy them. I talked to a store i go to that sells a lot, he said no Weller of any type has been available for 2-3 months.
@@thatbourbondude I live in Central Arkansas, but i hunt statewide, plus Mississippi. I haven’t seen a Stagg Jr in over a year now. I have only seen 1 Weller 107, and that was over a year ago priced at $299. I know where a Weller 12yr has been sitting for 2 years at $400, and an Elmer T Lee for $350. I just refuse and stick with good shelf regulars.
That's awesome to hear.. I love seeing the price come down. Lots of people keep saying I'm crazy but if being right makes me crazy bring on the padded walls.
If this trend continues, it will be interesting to see what happens at the museum stores. There is one in my area where I saw Eagle Rare 10-year for $200 last year. Even by the standards of museums, that was ridiculous. Maybe I should go back in there and see if the layers of dust have grown on the bottles.
@@thatbourbondude After seeing how that store is, I bet they will drop Eagle Rare to $150 and act like it is a good deal. The next time I'm in the town where that store is, I think I might have to go in and take a look. There is another store in that town that has somewhat elevated prices but not usually full-blown museum level; maybe prices on some of the lower level allocated stuff there will come down. I was fortunate enough to find two bottles of Fortaleza tequila there for prices that weren't absurd, but I've never seen any since. (It isn't only bourbon - tequila has a few tater bottles.)
I'm glad to see you are recovering pretty swiftly! I see the water off to the side on the table. Good man! There'll be plenty of time to enjoy bourbon again when you're 100%! I got called third today at the monthly raffle at my local store. The Heaven Hill 18 Year and Blanton's Gold went before me and I was able to snag Elmer T Lee for $49.99! I'm pretty stoked! Regarding the market, patience is going to be your friend as things cool and stores and flippers are forced to lower their expectations. Some may choose to sit on their bottles rather than take a loss moving them. For the smart ones, they already liquidated. For the ones still sitting on bottles, I would personally start trading towards the allocated bottles they actually drink. If you are sitting on bottles and want to convert it back to cash, you're going to have to take an 'L' and take a hair cut on them if you expect to move them. People aren't blindly paying full secondary or even average secondary anymore. Some people can't even afford to buy regular booze at the store! In the end, the stoic and patient people will be rewarded. Don't pay secondary for anything! Let those flippers and retailers get wrecked!
@@thatbourbondude It is my first bottle of Elmer T Lee. I was able to try ETL at a local bar as well as Rock Hill Farms. I like both of those bottles over Blanton's (including Gold and SFTB). I guess Elmer would sometimes drink this on ice with sprite or 7-up. I want to try that for my first pour from this bottle!
The allocated bourbon will always be higher priced, but mostly the demand has gone back to pre-pandemic .. and still dropping demand on day to day mid tier and bottom shelf. Buffalo Trace is always going to under produce
I see a few bottles selling for less in active secondary markets - JD 12 and Stagg are down $20-30 the last month or so, but others are on the way up - M10, GTS, CH, ECBP C923, OF 1924 - all up noticeably.
I'm not sure where you live. The market isn't crashing at all in Florida. The secondary market is booming as there are still the fools spending the money and camping out weekly to get a bottle of sub par bourbon. But you keep preaching.
I was just in Florida last month (Vero Beach, Fort Pierce ,Marathon, and Big Pine and was able to pick up Blantons SFTB for 145 ,EHT Sib 71 EHT SB 45 and old forester Sib rye all at msrp. I've never found anything in FL like that before for those prices. I'm near Louisville KY
Same happened to beer years ago. I knew guys that had beers that were selling close to $1k in secondary. Have to imagine people out there that make well over $200k or year, $1k isn't much to them. A year+ later these bottles sell for $100-$200 People like me have just become content with the easier to find options and less interested in new random lables. Tried and true and always in stock.
The secondary market is definitely adjusting prices. I mean the real secondary market, "illegal" online groups where you post words and prices as images, not online rip off stores. I regularly see Stagg under $200 now.
Disposable income is down bigtime under Biden , most people are in big debt and living paycheck to paycheck now. This affects all markets not just bourbon.
I’ve been seeing some of the same things in Illinois. I think all of us bourbon fans want a thriving and fair bourbon market. It hasn’t been fair. So, I hope some market corrections occur and leads to a fairer environment. I don’t necessarily want it to become boring, but it would be nice to have a better shot at some of my dream bottles. I know some don’t live up to the hype, but some absolutely do. I wouldn’t mind a bottle of ultra aged Old Fitz for a reasonable price. Some things I’ve seen go against your analysis and are puzzling. I recently watched a video of a guy who went to a Kroger drop. There were 1000 people there. The dude ends up getting the 4th slot and nabs a bottle of Pappy 20 and Michter’s 10 at retail! Unbelievable! It’s hard to watch a video like that and think it’s slowing down. Brewzle has a similar video posted as well. IDK it seems like there is still a frenzy of sorts for big drops. The key is that products are sold at SRP. We don’t have any drops like that in Illinois. I wish we did. Personally, I’ve cut down on purchases tremendously. Like many, I’ve got too much as is and the drive is not there to keep spending . The downside is losing store connections because I’m just not spending a ton. It doesn’t help that LEs have skyrocketed in price. I’m not down with $200- $300 bourbons. I have never bought from the secondary market. I have bargained with greedy owners a few times. We’ll see what happens. Thanks for the insight!
Maybe I'm wrong about everything, but everything that's happening right now, I predicted to happen 16 months, and I was told that will never happen and it did. To speak on the Kroger drop. They hold the best bottles back throughout the Year for big drops. KROGER is in the business of making fast money just like all of the big box liquor stores, aka walmart. They move all bottles at 25% mark-up (MSRP) a few times a year for a few reasons. The most important one is the free publicity that the drop provides. Brewzle Channle is a money-making machine, and rightfully so. JT has done something that no one else has done before. With that being said, for the channel to continue to maintain that level of success, the bourbon market must continue to be high. So it is in his best interest not to speak to direct on how the market is collapsing. Thanks for your support.. 🍻 Cheers
Man I just moved to VA from SW IL, and the ABC system is far better. Picked up OWA107 for $55 and Blanton’s Gold for $120. That’s at least a $500 purchase at the museum stores in IL.
Thanks, David. We have been seeing big price drops in my area in retail stores and on 2nd. Picked up a 13th Colony Cask Strength today for 109.99. It was 229.99 for the last month or so. I'm very happy to see the shift. I think with Time, We will see it will be a nationwide thing. We are still very early in the transition.
Think most or all of what this vid is about, is the country going to shit, not just a temporary bad economy, but an irreversible collapse. You mentioned that a little in the vid, but it sounds like you are saying it is specific to the whiskey market, for the most part. Which could be somewhat true right now. The first things to go when a country goes to s*** are luxury goods. People need housing & food, so just the luxury portion within those markets will see a decline.
By me the small mom n pop stores are holding onto the old pricing. They had to take on too much crappy bottles to get those allocated ones so they’re not budging. $280 for Stagg Jr. $90 for EHT small batch. On a side note I’m seeing Henry McKenna BiB 10 year going for $69 before tax at Total Wine. It sells out but takes a couple of weeks to do so.
McKenna 10 has been way more prevalent around STL recently. My local Costco gets a stack about once a month, maybe 10 cases. It still sells out in a week @ $55
@@mattschmitt9924great to hear around you Henry McKenna 10 year BiB is more readily available and cheaper than the $69 we gotta pay around Cinco Ranch Texas.
Do you mind sharing where you’re seeing these prices? I think I’d pick up a OF13 VVS, if I could find it for that. .. Those type of bottles don’t make it to my local “markets”. Please shoot me a PM.
great information,.. with all respect please move the microphone away from your mouth. It's a distraction listening to a speaker breathing into the mic thx🤙
Crash is a bit harsh. Is it stabilizing yes. Secondary is certainly not doing a serious business like they where. Are some distilleriers crazy on pricing yes BT has lost their mind with the new release that is 7500. That is just a no all day. Still waiting to see what is going to happen with Barrell company are they going under or trying to come up with a plan to salvage the company. But losing money on investment is not a plan that seems too be a good business model just saying. Is there product good yes but not 80-100 good which hurts them. Will they survive not to sure about that unless a heavy hitter investor shows up. Which is highly unlikely! There is a influx of new drinkers that have drive and don't have the knowledge to pick smartly or understand the market. Is that driving the market I believe it is. New young drinkers are the ones who will over pay and bragg about it sadly. I've been drinking for a long time and I am satisfied with my stand by bottles that I enjoy and can walk in and get. My opinion on the mark up from some brands is kinda hurting them as it restricts many customers from getting a bottle of these special bottles. I understand this to a degree but it does hurt them from selling a bottle. Are things going to settle down time will tell and education of new drinkers is key in this process. Enjoy!!
You hit the nail on the head. By definition, what is happening in the bourbon market is definitely a crash. I believe that there are a lot more underlying issues with what's going on than what I addressed it in the video, and you touch briefly on many of them. If my suspicions are correct, I expect to see many brands go under this year and the next. Thank you for your input. It really helps hearing other people's thoughts on the matter. Being able to see things from another perspective helps shine a brighter light on a subject. CHEERS 🍻
Sure…There is room for a correction. Buuut…people are still chasing bottles, new people are coming into the market. All the bourbon events are selling out, there is no real allocated items sitting on the shelves…so not sure where you ares getting your intel from…BS And yes…the retailers are rising prices too as support. IE McKenna 10 used to be 28…and now it is 60 retail But You are way off on your high prices of secondary and your stated lows are way lower than where real values are sitting. New releases are a letter softer. Old batches still command a huge premium…specially if you go back to 2016, 2018, etc Craft distillers are gonna take a hit as to many barrels and market strain Highly allocated limited release will hold value due to being low production, high desire, and people consume them
I hate it for you but YOU ARE WRONG. You must be a flipper mad that you are in to deep on a lot of bottles and cant get your money back or you are a bottle fan boy that pays up to get bottles that are not worth the money . The market in going down and this is just the beginning of it. I have been in the sprits sales and distribution world for the last 20 years and when i run my sales report and they show a 20% dip( NON ALLOCATED). that's all the proof i need to know that the market is going down. weather you want to believe it or not doesn't change the fact that is happening. ALLOCATED Bottles are not the bourbon market if fact they only make up 3%-5% of total sales. when the other 95% of the market dips 20% we have a problem. Cheer and good luck getting your money back.
@@thatbourbondudewhat a dbag response…i was not rude to you…what’s your problem bro… you are a little agro… I drink my bottles and have over hundred open. Been in the hobby for over 20yrs as well. But I also track the market because I can not always find things retail…so like to know what values are… Eitherway…duck off bro 🤣 Will not return to your channel 🤙 Cheers
@@thatbourbondude I wish I did, hate that I can’t offer a solution. Your content is there though, you get the audio worked out and I think you’re gonna see a big difference!
If the store owner agrees to it, I'll make a video at his store so everyone can see his prices. He is always above srp but never full 2nd. Thanks for the support and comment. CHEERS 🍻
@@thatbourbondude rip 10’s still sell at auctions for $600-$700 and then there’s a 25% fee. What store would sell it for 50% less then they can get all day???
@Mike-zp2dt that's not what I said at all. Anyone who walks in the door gets that price. It doesn't matter if it's your 1st time or you have been shopping there for 20 yrs. If you are just here to cause problems bc you are mad that you can't find bottles at a decent price, please just see yourself out.
I want to make myself clear when I talk about the bourbon market. I dont just mean the allocated and LE's . That only makes up a very small percentage of the total bourbon,whiskey, and rye market. In fact, that only makes up about 10% of what the distilleries put out.
I've been answering a lot of questions in the comments, and i'm getting the feeling that everyone thinks I'm only talking about allocated products. The allocated market drop in price is only one of the metrics used to calculate a shift in the entire market. The people purchasing allocated products tend to have a higher level of expendable income, which in turn if they are slowing down on their purchases.The average person Has nearly stopped or has completely stopped their purchases of low end products Which accounts for the majority of the gross profit from the distilleries
"You're going broke... and you deserve it."
Hahaha! So true. Not a fan of bottle flippers.
Agreed! No problem with trading but these Hipsters trying to make 200% off a bottle FU 😂
Actually tasting these allocated bottles brings so much clarity. 95% of them are nothing special and no better than off the shelf options
I 100% agree
A large segment of the secondary market was contingent on gatekeeping these bottles from people for exactly that reason. The majority of bourbon is going to be pretty indiscernible to the majority of drinkers. With obvious exceptions like wheated bourbon, rye and finished bourbons.
It's funny that one of the budget bonded bourbons you can buy for under $30 will more than likely be more memorable to you than some 'Unicorn' bottle.
Facts. The only truly allocated bottle I hunt is Stagg, but I also replace it with JDSBBP on the regular to conserve the bottles of it I do have. TBH the Jack is better mostly. 😬😅
Just not true unfortunately
@@johnwill7962 C’mere I’ll sell you Stagg at $200 a pop all day long then buddy. 😎🤣🙂
The market ain’t crashing. People are just broke and tired of paying secondary because they are actually starting to value the juice win the bottle. When you put a value on the juice you will see it’s not worth secondary.
The problem is secondary is a big part of the market. A Core part of how BT/Sazerac is able to use stuff like BTAC and PVW is because of their insane secondary value/demand gets stores to over-buy the lower tier. Ancient Age/Benchmark/Wheatley/Fireball/whatever else high margin but low cost product definitely gets you on the favor list to eventually get the highest of high tier. Part of the reason you see a lot of whiskey-centric liquor stores/stores that work the system have almost specials on low tier Sazerac/Brown-Forman/Beam/HH/whoever product is to make sweet with the reps for the good stuff, selling the low tier nearly at cost/at a price to shift high volume just to work the numbers on their accounts. That secondary/demand drop will absolutely affect the rest of the spirits market as a whole.
The covid checks stopped coming in.
Never met a bottle that lived up to justifying its secondary price for me. Couldn’t agree more.
FJB✌🏼🇺🇸
Tech tip, you tend to stop buying at ridiculous prices if you actually open the bottle! Thanks for the update! Happy to see some more allocated bottles popping up more in my area for a decent price.
I wish this stopped me
I have never purchased at secondary prices. My reasoning is this, the manufacturer says that their product is worth "X" amount, why would I feel the need to pay more? The folks that made, aged, bottled and shipped the product think it is worth a certain price, who am I to say differently.
Yes, I understand that a lot of items on secondary are limited, and that adds to the collectability aspect of that product, but I don't buy whiskey to collect, so that means nothing to me. Would I like to have some of those bottles? Of course, but I will take my chances with my local store and their drawings.
Yup, this ____ bourbon is good, but is it $100-$200+ good. Meh.
Same happened to beer. I've had a lot of hard to get beers , (at the time $800 in secondary beers), and while they were pretty damn Delicious, did I think it was it $37 an ounce of beer Delicious. No lol.
Yea i think this makes sense. All of these dudes who are sitting on tons of bottles, aren't buying anymore because they can't sell it or they already have so much stock that it doesn't matter. No need to buy a bottle of Blantons if you have 5 unopened bottles at home. The hording has come to effect the market.
Barrel makes my absolute favorite bottles. Seagrass, Vantage, their regular batches. I have never disliked anything I had from them. I hope they stay afloat.
Me too I'm gonna be doing a video on Seagrass today and why everyone needs a bottle of that it's tropical and fantastic
Love Seagrass
@@jameslenaburg4378 me too it's phenomenal shared it with friends this past weekend bottle almost drained😪
If you got into this hobby to flip bottles or build up a collection to liquidate later on it as an investment, you got in for the wrong reasons….
Re: Barrell, another weird sign, they used to do like 4 batch releases a year. I feel like it has been +/- 8 months since batch 35.
Re: Heaven Hill. Saw an article that they were laying off warehouse employees recently.
In my area, I’ve seen stacks of product that we haven’t seen for years starting to come back into stores….Woodford batch proof, 1792 full proof, SB, & BiB….Elijah Craig Toasted, Larceny BP, even some ECBP releases are sitting on shelves. I think you’re right, people are generally scaling back on their bottle purchases and the distilleries are probably still pumping them out like we’re in 2020.
Love hearing that the flippers are taking a bath! Serves them right
I looked at my "collection" and felt silly being a grown man with that much juice. Gave away about 90 bottles to good friends. Kept 5 bottles and will keep it at 5. No more FOMO and chasing bottles. What's cool is that a couple of buddies that I have bottles to shared pours of stuff I've never seen on the shelf or would never pay for. Sharing is caring!
$700 for GTS...still too much
I’ve had some luck going to museums and writing down cash offers for bottles they have at full secondary. I split the difference between secondary and MSRP, or offer to take multiple at just above MSRP. Has worked well a few times now.
I have tried that myself a few times.
Just look at the stacked up CASES in ALOT of the big retailers!!! i think your going to see a ton of AGED juice on the market in the next year or two 🤔 👍🥃😉Cheers 😊
I totally agree
Boo hoo for all the greedy ones that overpaid
I love the information man! Also I'm glad to see your health doing better!
It's this simple - there is major inflation pressure on wallets, and the first thing people cut back on are luxury items. I bet WT 101 is doing great.
Funny story Four Roses 2021and 2022 LE releases just became available in Tennessee. The store owner told me he was postive amd had it on good authority that it was FR sitting on these not the distributor. Same thing in Arizona tons of old Stagg bathces hit a couple of weeks ago. Prices are just starting to drop locally.
Respectfully disagree with your take on this.
Are prices falling? Yes, but 25% increases annually was NEVER sustainable. I wouldn't call it a crash. I live in northern New Jersey and the secondary market is still STRONG. Allocated bottles are still expensive! Prices are leveling off and are no longer increasing but NOBODY is paying less than $1k for a George T. Stagg ---- I would LOVE a reference to where it is $700 or less.
I think supply and demand will dictate lower prices in our future, but remember --- inflation is still STRONG in our economy! Prices at the grocery stores are still high and in other aspects of our lives.
Thanks for putting out this content Bourbon Dude --- healthy conversation is good for everyone. Cheers to all!
Totally appreciate the comment. I've been in the spirit industry in some capacity for the last 20 years
And I can tell you this.Things are not looking good for a lot of the distilleries. I can't give exact quotes from the people who have told me this, but they are in extremely high up positions in these companies. ( Tax man is coming and products are not moving) They ramped up production so much that they're setting on a lot of product in the Rickhouse and now that there is a cooling in market they are looking at not being able to pay the taxes that accrue each year on each barrel. That doesn't even account for 35% of the market Shifting to tequila and rum.
Yeah actual secondary is 700 but if all you know is store prices then yeah 1000
@@thatbourbondudethis huge supply will be more of an impact to the crowded craft distillers, barrel source brands, and commodity brands
Much less so for impact on the highly allocated well aged stated products
Bullwhip effect in full swing... I see exactly the same with mountain bikes prices, especially the more expensive ones...
I guess I am ahead of the curve. I stopped hunting 2 years ago and I refuse to wait in lines anymore for drops.
Yup same here
I am new to the game. Just got into bourbon this year. I'm happy to see I may have timed one of my new hobbies correctly finally!
@@mattschmitt9924 there are so many excellent and reasonable priced whiskey on the shelves.
@@customer9845 I am working my way through a few of them. I have found a few that I really like. I have a buddy that's been in the game for a while and shares a lot of the harder to get stuff with me. I am grateful because it shows me that some of those allocated bottles are just not worth the hunt to me. I appreciate the experience we have over those bottles, but they won't be in my cart anytime soon.
Every market self corrects at some point!
Absolutely... I love seeing a market correction that benefits the consumer.
I say its not crashing per say, more like stabilizing, it was way too low for many years, where you couldn't give bourbon away, then it went way to far the other way, through the roof, for many years.... but now with production up, more options/distilleries we should settle into a reasonable price point. Yeah there are still going to be unicorns you cannot find, but more and more I am finding bottles that just a few years ago were allocated, now are just sitting on the shelves. The economy certainly has a lot to do with this, when you cant afford groceries and gas, you are not spending money on Bourbon.
Thanks for the update. I always enjoy your content.
Nice dude, great coverage and thoughts. I love bourbon but have burnt out on hunting so this really resonates with me. Still love bourbon but got tired of the hype train culture.
Thanks, buddy. I wanted to do something that other channels aren't covering, and I felt this was the best way to show a different side of bourbon culture.
Went to two drops yesterday. At the first one I went to, only 20 people showed up. Out of those 20 only 2 or 3 bought anything. The store was at full secondary. The owner asked why we weren't buying, and we said because she was too expensive. The next drop I went to sold everything at about MSRP. They SOLD OUT
It's time that all of these stores learn that lesson
I’m seeing less allocated stuff, so no one is getting to buy them. I talked to a store i go to that sells a lot, he said no Weller of any type has been available for 2-3 months.
If you don't mind sharing. What area do you live in?
@@thatbourbondude I live in Central Arkansas, but i hunt statewide, plus Mississippi. I haven’t seen a Stagg Jr in over a year now. I have only seen 1 Weller 107, and that was over a year ago priced at $299. I know where a Weller 12yr has been sitting for 2 years at $400, and an Elmer T Lee for $350. I just refuse and stick with good shelf regulars.
I can say the same. Recently talked to my local store owner and he said higher end Buffalo Trace stuff just hasn’t been as available. In Oregon.
Won’t buy secondary but also haven’t seen a price reduction in New England yet. Michter’s 10 is still 350-400 but saw Eagle Rare at 38
It's brown water, not the S&P 500. I love secondary prices going down. MSRP King of Kentucky? I'll take all of them.
Eagle 10yr, in my area $40.00. San Diego. A few months ago, $65-$90.
That's awesome to hear.. I love seeing the price come down. Lots of people keep saying I'm crazy but if being right makes me crazy bring on the padded walls.
If this trend continues, it will be interesting to see what happens at the museum stores. There is one in my area where I saw Eagle Rare 10-year for $200 last year. Even by the standards of museums, that was ridiculous. Maybe I should go back in there and see if the layers of dust have grown on the bottles.
Do it! I just went into a store that I haven't been into in over two years and they have dropped the prices
@@thatbourbondude After seeing how that store is, I bet they will drop Eagle Rare to $150 and act like it is a good deal. The next time I'm in the town where that store is, I think I might have to go in and take a look. There is another store in that town that has somewhat elevated prices but not usually full-blown museum level; maybe prices on some of the lower level allocated stuff there will come down. I was fortunate enough to find two bottles of Fortaleza tequila there for prices that weren't absurd, but I've never seen any since. (It isn't only bourbon - tequila has a few tater bottles.)
I can get ER for 39.99 in colorado.
I'm glad to see you are recovering pretty swiftly! I see the water off to the side on the table. Good man! There'll be plenty of time to enjoy bourbon again when you're 100%!
I got called third today at the monthly raffle at my local store. The Heaven Hill 18 Year and Blanton's Gold went before me and I was able to snag Elmer T Lee for $49.99! I'm pretty stoked!
Regarding the market, patience is going to be your friend as things cool and stores and flippers are forced to lower their expectations. Some may choose to sit on their bottles rather than take a loss moving them. For the smart ones, they already liquidated. For the ones still sitting on bottles, I would personally start trading towards the allocated bottles they actually drink. If you are sitting on bottles and want to convert it back to cash, you're going to have to take an 'L' and take a hair cut on them if you expect to move them. People aren't blindly paying full secondary or even average secondary anymore. Some people can't even afford to buy regular booze at the store!
In the end, the stoic and patient people will be rewarded. Don't pay secondary for anything! Let those flippers and retailers get wrecked!
Man, I'm so glad you got the call for the bottle. That's so exciting. Is this the 1st Elmer T Lee you have been able to pick up?
@@thatbourbondude It is my first bottle of Elmer T Lee. I was able to try ETL at a local bar as well as Rock Hill Farms. I like both of those bottles over Blanton's (including Gold and SFTB). I guess Elmer would sometimes drink this on ice with sprite or 7-up. I want to try that for my first pour from this bottle!
Wow! Great information. Thanks.
Glad to see you up and running! Can’t wait to do a collab!🥃
Same here!
The allocated bourbon will always be higher priced, but mostly the demand has gone back to pre-pandemic .. and still dropping demand on day to day mid tier and bottom shelf. Buffalo Trace is always going to under produce
Everyone pissed when they can’t get bottles for good prices, now prices are dropping and everyone’s pissed that the markets gone flat
You hit the nail on the head.
I see a few bottles selling for less in active secondary markets - JD 12 and Stagg are down $20-30 the last month or so, but others are on the way up - M10, GTS, CH, ECBP C923, OF 1924 - all up noticeably.
I'm not sure where you live. The market isn't crashing at all in Florida. The secondary market is booming as there are still the fools spending the money and camping out weekly to get a bottle of sub par bourbon. But you keep preaching.
I was just in Florida last month (Vero Beach, Fort Pierce ,Marathon, and Big Pine and was able to pick up Blantons SFTB for 145 ,EHT Sib 71 EHT SB 45 and old forester Sib rye all at msrp. I've never found anything in FL like that before for those prices. I'm near Louisville KY
@@thatbourbondude you found those bottles because sazerac has been flooding the state with product ever since the change over to breakthru.
@adiliosamuels253 that's not a bad thing to have a lot of good bottles available at good prices.
Great content, backed up with solid evidence.
Thank you. I appreciate the support
Great content! First time watching your channel and now have subscribed.
Thank you for the support and comment .CHEERS
Same happened to beer years ago. I knew guys that had beers that were selling close to $1k in secondary. Have to imagine people out there that make well over $200k or year, $1k isn't much to them. A year+ later these bottles sell for $100-$200
People like me have just become content with the easier to find options and less interested in new random lables. Tried and true and always in stock.
Make Bourbon Cheap Again
Amen
The secondary market is definitely adjusting prices. I mean the real secondary market, "illegal" online groups where you post words and prices as images, not online rip off stores. I regularly see Stagg under $200 now.
Disposable income is down bigtime under Biden , most people are in big debt and living paycheck to paycheck now. This affects all markets not just bourbon.
You are 100% correct.
FJB AND that DEI hire Kamalatoe✌🏼🇺🇸
I’ve been seeing some of the same things in Illinois. I think all of us bourbon fans want a thriving and fair bourbon market. It hasn’t been fair. So, I hope some market corrections occur and leads to a fairer environment. I don’t necessarily want it to become boring, but it would be nice to have a better shot at some of my dream bottles. I know some don’t live up to the hype, but some absolutely do. I wouldn’t mind a bottle of ultra aged Old Fitz for a reasonable price. Some things I’ve seen go against your analysis and are puzzling. I recently watched a video of a guy who went to a Kroger drop. There were 1000 people there. The dude ends up getting the 4th slot and nabs a bottle of Pappy 20 and Michter’s 10 at retail! Unbelievable! It’s hard to watch a video like that and think it’s slowing down. Brewzle has a similar video posted as well. IDK it seems like there is still a frenzy of sorts for big drops. The key is that products are sold at SRP. We don’t have any drops like that in Illinois. I wish we did. Personally, I’ve cut down on purchases tremendously. Like many, I’ve got too much as is and the drive is not there to keep spending . The downside is losing store connections because I’m just not spending a ton. It doesn’t help that LEs have skyrocketed in price. I’m not down with $200- $300 bourbons. I have never bought from the secondary market. I have bargained with greedy owners a few times. We’ll see what happens. Thanks for the insight!
Maybe I'm wrong about everything, but everything that's happening right now, I predicted to happen 16 months, and I was told that will never happen and it did.
To speak on the Kroger drop. They hold the best bottles back throughout the
Year for big drops. KROGER is in the business of making fast money just like all of the big box liquor stores, aka walmart. They move all bottles at 25% mark-up (MSRP) a few times a year for a few reasons. The most important one is the free publicity that the drop provides.
Brewzle Channle is a money-making machine, and rightfully so. JT has done something that no one else has done before. With that being said, for the channel to continue to maintain that level of success, the bourbon market must continue to be high. So it is in his best interest not to speak to direct on how the market is collapsing.
Thanks for your support.. 🍻 Cheers
Man I just moved to VA from SW IL, and the ABC system is far better. Picked up OWA107 for $55 and Blanton’s Gold for $120. That’s at least a $500 purchase at the museum stores in IL.
@@ThumbsMcThumb Congrats man! That’s more like it. I know ABC systems have their flaws, but I’d prefer that over the greedy stores over here.
glad to see it crash, went into a local grocery store and they had blatons gold for $1000.....
it doesnt even make sense
Wow, that's a crazy price
Interesting take on the industry. Hope prices go down😆. Also hope you get healthy and better 🙏. Thanks for the video!
Thanks, David. We have been seeing big price drops in my area in retail stores and on 2nd. Picked up a 13th Colony Cask Strength today for 109.99. It was 229.99 for the last month or so. I'm very happy to see the shift. I think with Time, We will see it will be a nationwide thing. We are still very early in the transition.
@@thatbourbondude wish I could find that 13th Colony cask strength here 😆 Make sure to do a review video on it!
@WhiskeyBank it's for a friend. I'm not a fan of 13th.
@@WhiskeyBank I just emailed you
@@thatbourbondude thanks! 👍
Think most or all of what this vid is about, is the country going to shit, not just a temporary bad economy, but an irreversible collapse.
You mentioned that a little in the vid, but it sounds like you are saying it is specific to the whiskey market, for the most part. Which could be somewhat true right now. The first things to go when a country goes to s*** are luxury goods. People need housing & food, so just the luxury portion within those markets will see a decline.
By me the small mom n pop stores are holding onto the old pricing. They had to take on too much crappy bottles to get those allocated ones so they’re not budging. $280 for Stagg Jr. $90 for EHT small batch. On a side note I’m seeing Henry McKenna BiB 10 year going for $69 before tax at Total Wine. It sells out but takes a couple of weeks to do so.
McKenna 10 has been way more prevalent around STL recently. My local Costco gets a stack about once a month, maybe 10 cases. It still sells out in a week @ $55
@@mattschmitt9924great to hear around you Henry McKenna 10 year BiB is more readily available and cheaper than the $69 we gotta pay around Cinco Ranch Texas.
If you go to the unicorn auctions online, at least allocated, there is no decline
Glad to see you’re doing better! Good info on the market too. Like all things, it’s cyclical.
Thanks buddy
Do you mind sharing where you’re seeing these prices? I think I’d pick up a OF13 VVS, if I could find it for that. .. Those type of bottles don’t make it to my local “markets”. Please shoot me a PM.
Several of the stores in Louisville Kentucky have them for between 500 and 700.
If us buyer stop buying for those prices, they will actually keep dropping
great information,.. with all respect please move the microphone away from your mouth. It's a distraction listening to a speaker breathing into the mic thx🤙
Sorry it's a new mic. Still trying to figure it out
@@thatbourbondudeRespectfully, I agree with this comment. The breathing was difficult to listen to.
Crash is a bit harsh. Is it stabilizing yes. Secondary is certainly not doing a serious business like they where. Are some distilleriers crazy on pricing yes BT has lost their mind with the new release that is 7500. That is just a no all day. Still waiting to see what is going to happen with Barrell company are they going under or trying to come up with a plan to salvage the company. But losing money on investment is not a plan that seems too be a good business model just saying. Is there product good yes but not 80-100 good which hurts them. Will they survive not to sure about that unless a heavy hitter investor shows up. Which is highly unlikely! There is a influx of new drinkers that have drive and don't have the knowledge to pick smartly or understand the market. Is that driving the market I believe it is. New young drinkers are the ones who will over pay and bragg about it sadly. I've been drinking for a long time and I am satisfied with my stand by bottles that I enjoy and can walk in and get. My opinion on the mark up from some brands is kinda hurting them as it restricts many customers from getting a bottle of these special bottles. I understand this to a degree but it does hurt them from selling a bottle. Are things going to settle down time will tell and education of new drinkers is key in this process. Enjoy!!
You hit the nail on the head. By definition, what is happening in the bourbon market is definitely a crash. I believe that there are a lot more underlying issues with what's going on than what I addressed it in the video, and you touch briefly on many of them. If my suspicions
are correct, I expect to see many brands go under this year and the next.
Thank you for your input. It really helps hearing other people's thoughts on the matter. Being able to see things from another perspective helps shine a brighter light on a subject. CHEERS 🍻
Flippers will need to get a real job soon!
Sure…There is room for a correction.
Buuut…people are still chasing bottles, new people are coming into the market. All the bourbon events are selling out, there is no real allocated items sitting on the shelves…so not sure where you ares getting your intel from…BS
And yes…the retailers are rising prices too as support. IE McKenna 10 used to be 28…and now it is 60 retail
But You are way off on your high prices of secondary and your stated lows are way lower than where real values are sitting. New releases are a letter softer. Old batches still command a huge premium…specially if you go back to 2016, 2018, etc
Craft distillers are gonna take a hit as to many barrels and market strain
Highly allocated limited release will hold value due to being low production, high desire, and people consume them
I hate it for you but YOU ARE WRONG. You must be a flipper mad that you are in to deep on a lot of bottles and cant get your money back or you are a bottle fan boy that pays up to get bottles that are not worth the money . The market in going down and this is just the beginning of it. I have been in the sprits sales and distribution world for the last 20 years and when i run my sales report and they show a 20% dip( NON ALLOCATED). that's all the proof i need to know that the market is going down. weather you want to believe it or not doesn't change the fact that is happening. ALLOCATED Bottles are not the bourbon market if fact they only make up 3%-5% of total sales. when the other 95% of the market dips 20% we have a problem.
Cheer and good luck getting your money back.
i love when i hit close to home, it hits a nerve and people like you get all up in your feels and post comments like this ...lol
@@thatbourbondudewhat a dbag response…i was not rude to you…what’s your problem bro… you are a little agro…
I drink my bottles and have over hundred open. Been in the hobby for over 20yrs as well. But I also track the market because I can not always find things retail…so like to know what values are…
Eitherway…duck off bro 🤣
Will not return to your channel 🤙
Cheers
Yeah I have a MM cellar aged that I’m having a hard time trading
Great content but this audio is awful
Do you have any helpful tips to increase the audio quality? Im new to all of this. Any help would be appreciated 🙏
@@thatbourbondude I wish I did, hate that I can’t offer a solution. Your content is there though, you get the audio worked out and I think you’re gonna see a big difference!
@smi51040 Thanks for the support... I'll be working on it for sure
Dude I’m calling BS… where in the hell have you seen a rip 10 for 400-500
If the store owner agrees to it, I'll make a video at his store so everyone can see his prices. He is always above srp but never full 2nd.
Thanks for the support and comment. CHEERS 🍻
@@thatbourbondude rip 10’s still sell at auctions for $600-$700 and then there’s a 25% fee. What store would sell it for 50% less then they can get all day???
@@Mike-zp2dt A person that is smart enough to realize that a repeat customer is more valuable than a one-off sale.
@@thatbourbondude so basically only someone who spends a ton of money will get it at that price. So it’s not the real price. Thanks
@Mike-zp2dt that's not what I said at all. Anyone who walks in the door gets that price. It doesn't matter if it's your 1st time or you have been shopping there for 20 yrs.
If you are just here to cause problems bc you are mad that you can't find bottles at a decent price, please just see yourself out.