Tesla FSD V12, is it the Solution to Solving FSD?
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 27 ส.ค. 2023
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Yes, it is the foundation stone for level five FSD, it will allow much faster future progress as well. I bought Tesla assuming the market will value Tesla FSD at zero until Tesla literally rolls robo taxis out on millions of streets all at once, and I just want to make sure I have Tesla stock for that day.
But you bought tsla assuming the market is valuing fsd at zero. But YOU are the market. FSD is actually largely priced in aa millions of investors are holding this stock primarily for the hope of fsd
@@kaya051285 i think there will be 2 booms in stock price, if youre willing to hold long enough. Tesla will announce FSD is ready, stock will rip up to insane levels. People will then take profits, bring the stock down. Others will now buy in for future growth targets after seeing insane revenue from fad and robotaxi, creating another boom
@@kaya051285 No its partly priced in the `value` of FSD if it was indeed `largely` priced in would mean that Tesla stock would be much higher than it is, most large analysts do not have FSD in their price targets or their in their advice to their massive client base, the same is true of a large percentage of the market in the form of pension funds etc, FSD IF Tesla do actually solve it will cause a large increase in the stock price.
@steve.k4735 I'd argue its largely priced in. If you assume a tsla with zero fsd profits, then its valuation is bonkers if you assume FSD is around the corner you can make a case for a valuation in the $1 trillion club
Anyway we will see
I personally don't see multiple times higher stock on the news of a fully working fsd maybe a 50% uplift maybe a 10% uplift I don't know but definitely not gona add a trillion to the market cap
@@kaya051285 Tesla is the largest company growing at 40-50% annually, that is generally thought to deserve a higher multiple. That Tesla is growing that fast while posting nice profits is rare. I see a P/E of 75 as quite reasonable just on the current cars and energy profits and growth. FSD will be an enormous increase in Tesla profile with very small additional costs...
FSD is now a self-teaching machine that requires only high-quality video examples of *any* physical task: driving cars, piloting drones, driving trains, folding laundry, restocking feeder trays with bolts on the factory floor, assembling a hamburger, *any* physical task. This new architecture is a major step change. Combine this with a 16x increase in compute over the next year, and beyond... I think they solve L4 with regulatory approval in the US by September 2025.
Lee, thanks for making and sharing this video.
Uncanny how good neural net is & it's going to solve many of the past issues of FSD
Lee, this is the best video I have seen so far, very impressive, mate!!!
Cheers from Yasothon Thailand
A very exciting development! I feel more optimistic about FSD now than I’ve been in a long time, maybe ever.
Will it be able to respond to a police officer's hand signals?
@@OrbitTheSun interesting question. If it gets to practise on that situation a number of times, I’m sure it will.
Might be time for a little advertising. Most people I know think all Teslas cost $100,000 or more.
FSD Beta 11.4.4 is rolling out to ***HW4*** vehicles tonight. Crazy.
“Tesla sales into the AI wind.” 😮❤
5:00) 1 intervention: Elon braked. What if he didn’t? If Elon had curbed his reflex, would ego have detected its error and braked itself? We don’t know, do we?
Games up.
Keep bringing up the fact that humans use hearing too. Don't they already have "road noise" pickups to reduce noise in the cabin? They should be training on road noise data too. So much can be heard before it can be seen.
Will it be able to honk in dangerous situations?
is 250 a good buy for a tesla stock ?
The market will understand when they see crazy profit.
For the few Wall Street "experts" who might understand this FSD demo was huge, they will not see how it could help Teslabots. The ability for Ai to learn by observation will change so much. As Musk noted in the FSD demo, they did not have to code in all the objects and behaviors. There was a Teslabot demo clip with a human doing a task and then the Teslabot does it after watching.
Imagine the ability to "program" a Teslabot by just showing it what to do. In the future, we may have construction teams with maybe one human and a large group of Teslabots building homes. So many retail shops and restaurants could be 95% Teslabot staff. Farming, eldercare, and so much more could quickly switch to Teslabots if they could learn tasks via simple demos by humans.
Maybe we will see Tesla Cybertrucks with fire fighting equipment and carry Teslabots into wild fires to help.
The biggest thing that will slow Tesla FSD and AI will be government regulations. I get critics do not believe FSD is near, but Musk kind of burned those bridges with repeated promises not met in terms of timelines. With that said, I see FUD pushing government leaders to slow FSD and naturally leaders paid of by lobbyists will also try to stop FSD and Tesla AI.
Seeing this furthers my belief the 2030 TSLA value is going so much higher than most imagine now.
Why should the market react??? There is no imprivement in fsd...
The improvement is at a technical level that most people are blind to.
@@MsAjax409 No, end2end is just a different approach. Not even a new one. Whether this approach is better that the old one remains to be seen...
@@niederrheiner8468 It is new in it's implementation and scale.
@@MsAjax409 Scale did not help at the last approach and I dont see, how this will lead to Level 4 or 5 autonomy with end2end.
Actually more surprised so many people actually thought the V12 drive WOULD move the market. "The boy who cried FSD" is a real phenomenon! Elon has been confidently stating FSD "will likely be feature complete by the end of 2019," then was completely wrong yet repeated it verbatim in 2020...2021...2022...2023. This will be the 5th straight year he has been incorrect, but now we must all believe its yet again "right around the corner." How didn't Elon realize in early 2019 that FSD couldn't be possible with the current sparse amount of data and compute? Funny how every Uber-bull completely agreed, reposted and regurgitated each of those predictions like it was a forgone conclusion for 5 years straight.
It’s so easy to be wise in hindsight, as you spend your time doing anything but developing FSD. It’s not so simple for those actually doing it.
Put your money on Mercedes then, we are told they’re the leader - at 40 km/hr.
@@edwardhackett-jones8126 At what point did I say it was easy? Its perhaps the most difficult technical task that's ever been attempted. My point is Elon saying FSD will be ready 5 years ago is the same as him saying Star Ship would have be ready for orbital flight in 2019 with 1/10th the number of rockets. There is no way he didn't know it would be impossible to solve with the tech available in 2019.
@@tnelly6588 says the man working on the project! Easy to be a wiseacre.
Remember, though, that in the fable, the wolf finally did come.
FSD learns through observation. Hive learning. So if one Teslabot learns to make apple turnovers, all Teslabots know. Imagine how long it takes an individual driver to observe/learn from thousands of turning scenarios. V12 has already observed millions. Sort of explains why Tesla has always pushed units to market with massive panel gaps etc. It’s the data they want.
Learning from so many examples, but still driving through a red traffic light???
That doesn’t add up.
A red red light is rather elementary…
What is darta
I would be happy if insurance rates drop in half if I have FSD.
Elon said v12 will not be released as beta. What does that mean?
It will only be released when Tesla are satisfied that they have a significant factor safety and they don’t be sued out of existence.
beta ain’t good enough. be released when best.
If v12 is another local maximum, v13 will improve on it based on enhancements to the v12 architecture. It looks like a significant development.
Ofc not.. but vetsion 13 or 14 will
NO - FSD has major problems that can't be solved no matter what.
I've driven FSD for about a year now and I report my horrifying experiences regularly on various channels.
I own a 2022 Tesla Model Y, and I paid $10,000 for FSD - so I'l like to see it work, but I now know it can never.
Why you ask?
My FSD uses HardWare version 3 devices - ultra cheap low-resolution cameras that basically make FSD nearsighted.
FSD can not pass any driver's license eye exam - the resolution is so poor that it can not read highway signs.
You can check this out for yourself by parking near a stop sign with a small sign below that reads
"On coming traffic does not stop" and then bring up the 8-way camera page and you will see that none of the cameras can read the sign.
So will states allow a self-driving system that can't pass their vision test on the road? Sure it can make out HUGE stop sign shapes but it can't read the word STOP.
I don't think so.
Elon has known of this problem and came out with HW4 - I don't have that so I can't see if FSD can pass the vision test.
Elon - this problem is not going away.....
Thanks, Mr Bot.😂
@@FrunkensteinVonZipperneck How's your vision?
Interesting concept using AI to drive the car. If the take-up rate improves and convincing videos appear. The stock price could possibly soar!
Why should the bulls think its a breakthrough they should have seen 11.x on numerous clips. Now they see v12 scrapping v11 and it still makes one silly mistake an hour. V12 needs to progress to flawless drives 99% of the time to shift the market. If that isnt achieved in an year then FSD maybalways be level 4.(sharehodler/bull but realist). Need it up and running in Vegas.
So why are you a shareholder/bull??
You are completely wrong. We have cameras for human eyes but we do not have an equivalent to the human brain.
What neural nets do is only part of what a human brain does. And that part is not enough to reach Level 4 or 5 autonomy.
I don’t have an equivalent to a human brain. Yet. My revivifier is out shopping at the morgue.❤
V12 is impressive, but it's important to realize that even though FSD will be able to drive safer than the average human driver on a statistical basis, it will not be able to resolve edge cases that it has never before encountered. Unlike a human being, FSD V12 does not have cognitive brain function. It cannot problem solve. At least not yet. FSD V12 is operating the car at a subconscious level, not unlike the way humans drive most of the time when in familiar surroundings. Will that be enough to achieve full autonomy? That has yet to be determined.
Teslas could go a trillion miles without a single intervention and my dumbass drunk uncle would still be telling me how they are super unsafe and he's a way better driver even after a beer or two.
Uncle Ernie?
HW3 AI will solve FSD in Less than 21 Days! Based on AI boardgames advancement history.
If only the real world were as simple and constrained as a board game
Replicate human drivers? I saw my Model 3 grab an iPhone and check it’s latest insta post. Damndest thing.
You seem to confuse when you hear about a development with when it’s being useful. Dojo won’t be up to 100 Teraflops for another year. Meanwhile Tesla is spending half billion on nvidea video chips at $10,000 each. Ouch. Tesla is racing like there’ll be no tomorrow - we all should be.
Tesla will license the tech to other auto companies too don't you think? Seems like FSD would be government mandated long before 10x safety improvement. So much safer It'd be criminal to drive without it.
They need fast efficient proprietary Tesla hardware too. So there will be a 2 to 5k cost on every car unless Tesla make it modular and then training for specific models becomes an issue.
Except for the fact that it's outrageously expensive. You can't expect poor or middle class people to suddenly cough up $15k.
@@darylfoster7944 price will come down over time
I've wondered the same: Tesla provides a list of hardware requirements, and offers other car companies a license copy that they implement together.
The solution is analog . . .
Not according to the law, but just what others are doing?
History learned that it can lead to horrible results…
WS ignorance= Your Opportunity!!!!!
Will someone PLEASE challenge the false notion that every Tesla on the road is transmitting its full video experience of each drive back to Tesla HQ. It's a very simple thing to push back on and prove that Tesla has NEVER done that with any car, much less every car. There is no bandwidth to do that now or then. Musk's claims that they are learning from every Tesla driving every mile has led to ridiculous acceptance by Tesla drivers and some of the public that their drive is being fully logged and fully transmitted as video data back to Tesla. The closest this comes to reality is that a handful of actual Tesla owned vehicles performed the majority of the driving logging in the beginning with short bursts of recording logging. The only upload that individuals in the Beta program provide to Tesla is when an intervention takes place, and Tesla uploads that short mistake to try to understand what happened, but NOT to expose the to the training system, because it was a mistake, and the dumb system can't understand WHY it was a mistake, so you cannot expose it and have it learn from it. It will learn to make the mistake, not correct it. In fact, this makes it extremely difficult to teach it good driving behavior, because Tesla wouldn't know which behavior is good or which behavior is bad. If 5 out of 10 Tesla drivers left too little following distance, it would learn that bad behavior. If just a few ahole Tesla drivers tailgated closely to force a driver to pull out of a lane, it would learn that behavior. You cannot train good driving technique to car, by exposing it to any/all drivers, and as I said, they absolutely don't expose it to all drivers. Do the math. The bandwidth to upload the video data from a single car journey from all cameras would overload any system if you tried to perform that over the air with every car. It's not happening. Shame on Tesla fans for not being proficient enough in tech to push back on that insane assertion he's propagated since 2016.
Musk has never been truthful about how many of the actual consumer miles are exposed to the machine learning. This lie has gotten to the point where rational people who should know better, believe their own car is learning their own neighborhoods. Even Elon's limited understanding of it thinks that, because as it navigates the construction zone in the V12 video, he points out that this is a new construction zone and the car has never experienced it before. DUH, that's not how it works. None of these cars learn, nor teach the main model through an upload/integration of learning cycles and download as a new FSD version, how to navigate a specific section of a specific road. The emperor has no clothes.
The non sequitur has no followers.
It was priceless when tech nerds said, "When Elon described EVs, I thought he was a genius, because I knew nothing about cars. When Elon described space ships, I thought he we even more genius. When he described robotaxies, AV, neural networks, AI, energy systems, solar roof tiles, implants...genius genius genius genius. When I saw what he said when he took over Twitter, I suddenly realized he'd just a poser who lies a lot and bullies the people who actually call out his bullshit.
You have to drive billions of miles to encounter the situations that Dojo needs to train the FSD system. Tesla never claimed that video from every mile driven is uploaded. Google "Tesla shadow mode".
🚖ROBOTAXI COMING YEAR 2024 🚖
Bots cant even make a sandwich and you expect robo cars next year? 😂😂😂
@@eugenebooth2467 when bots can make a sandwich we are doomed
I have two cars with camera based ADAS. Both become useless in heavy rain as the cameras get covered in dirty road spray.
So, how will a Tesla running FSD on HW3 drive in heavy rain? Within a few weeks I will have two ICE cars with 360 degree cameras. More cameras yet I know for sure that the ADAS will turn to rubbish as soon as there's road spray.
So, will FSD only be viable in sunny California weather?
Until Tesla take the risk and pays for medical, death and property costs associated with accidents while Teslas are driving in FSD mode, most people and analysts will continue being skeptical and not value it beyond conventional safety measures in ICE vehicles
FSD Beta operates in some pretty strong rainfall. I've experienced it myself. The forward cameras are cleared of water by the windshield wiper. The repeater cameras are well protected from road spray. People that can't see that FSD will be solved, and that Tesla is doing it, will wake up after the fact and wish they had seen it coming when TSLA was $250/sh.
Sick of this Crying wolf Fsd thing.
Since 5 years ago Elon has been saying Fsd will be ready by end of the year .. but look at today?😂😂😂
Everyone else said it was impossible for Tesla to achieve a vision only level five full self driving, and your complaint is that they are late? Tesla, making the impossible merely late. Also, Musk never ever said Tesla would have robo taxis by five years ago. Don't exaggerate while you cry in your mom's basement.
Innovator
FSD is close, enjoy the evolution, very exciting times.
This feels over hyped. I saw no difference with V11...
You are missing the point. V11 has over 300,000 lines of hand written code instructions telling the car what to do and when. V12 has Zero, no human has to provide any instructions. V12 has learned to drive all by itself (by viewing tons of driving videos). It was impressive that V12 drove just like V11 without anyone telling it how to!
over hyped? Uber hyped? hyper hyped? exponentially hyped? hyperbolically hyped!
What a joke, you cant find a bot that can make a simple sandwich and tesla bots be expecting robo taxis in six months 😂😂😂