EV transition: Can the grid cope? The truth about Electric Utopia. | Auto Expert John Cadogan
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![Tesla Taxi FULL HEALTH CHECK: Is The Battery RUINED After 430,000 Miles? [Episode 4]](/img/n.gif)
Other issue that will crash the grid is the rapidly rising electricity demand from AI in data centres.
Larry Fink the chairman of Blackrock recently commented that renewables are a poor investment as trying to rely on them is incompatible with AI data centres.
Yes and the damn crypto-mining also.
@@musicalneptunian Crypto is irrelevant compared to AI (or IA: Intelligent Automation). There's also *_graphene._* See: Mark Mills.
AI data centres are one of the few examples where a NPP makes sense. Their fairly constant 24/7 demand matches the preferred generation style of nuclear. Also, the data centres high earning potential makes the higher price of nuclear generated electricity less of a cost issue.
We should build a med-size NPP in the centre of a new IT technology park on the outskirts of Melbourne or Sydney. Funding for the NPP should be met by the IT & data companies themselves for their exclusive use. This will give them certainty of supply & enable these organisations to plan & operate with confidence.
AI will die in a few years as everything else died in IT fads. We had big data for decades now. The current trend is that they are using big data over neural networks, and not general computing, as it was worthless in general computing. They will play for a decade or so with Neural networks and drop it like like they did with every other fad.
What John forgot here is include human "fad" into the charging problem. As most people work 9-5 jobs, I doubt workplaces will provide charging for every car. So they will be forces to charge their car every 4-5 days in a charging station. It will be either early morning, or after work. So we will have 2 peaks in the day now something 6-8 and 5-9. But there is also another thing to take into account. If it takes you an hour to charge a car, the magic 15 minute charging is a freaking dream.
Thank you for honouring Igor Sikorsky, John. I have been flying Sikorsky products since 1980 in my aviation career and worked for the company itself including one of my highlights of spending time with his son, Sergei. Igor was a genius and emigrated to the USA fleeing the Bolshevik revolution in 1919.
Igor Sikorsky is one of the absolute greats of aviation. His design of helicopter power delivery and control is used universally to this day.
Just had an ACA story pop up about an older couple in a very expensive suburb in Sydney complaining about not being able to run an extension lead from their solar/house over the footpath to charge up their electric shopping trolley.
Beats me how people manage to be intelligent enough to do well enough to live in these places but didn't think about this beforehand tbh.
I just saw that too, what a bunch of tossers, thinking they can do something that's totally stupid.. That couple were wealthy wankers who should think before they buy a shitter like that with no driveway.
Entitled is the reason.
- indeed - talk about needing a cord cut....
(The leash of entitlement is a tough one..Double that with the "Saving the planet" - horse$h!t.)
I prefer not consuming my way into a deeper sinkhole.... And use available energy sources to actually benefit humanity.... Max Shreck's Energy Sucker is where we are at....
there are tiny covers/ramps for that exact purpose. They could also put a conduit under the walkway and put the cord in it. Not complicated.
They bought the property for three times their annual salary decades ago
Trees do a great job scrubbing carbon out of the air. Just protect the forest.
No no we gotta put in wind mills and solar....gotta cut those down....sarcasm
Trees.... the ultimate, perfect, carbon capture and storage.
When the world becomes carbon neutral what will the trees and plants use to survive.
The increased CO2 has lead to 30% more green cover across the globe in 20 years ... we just need more CO2
@@tallboy49 - only their pure neutrality, wave the Red Cross...
Here in Alberta Canada we are in the middle of heat wave and we were warned yesterday that rotating power cuts was possible in the next few days, but still EV use has to grow without any plans on how the power will be made including the fact that by 2035 we have to be carbon free
*NO SUCH THING* as “Carbon-free!”
I guarantee you that those regulations will be quietly modified.
I made 15kwh lifeo4 battery using eve304 ah cells, for last one year, I have not imported any electricity from the grid, grid operators or retailers charge me 42 cents per kWh for import and pay only 3 cents per kWh for export, they are ripping off customers. The Government is doing nothing to stop this exploitation. I am plannings to go totally of-grid and from last one year experiment I realised 30kwh per home should be enough to go through Melbourne cloudy days. If you make your own 30Kwh, it will only cost around 4000 using lithium or sodium stable chemistry.
You invest in battery. Good job ;)
If you search used EV battery you can go more cheaper.
We're a 5 person household, out average daily use of electricity is comparable to between a 2 and 3 person household.
Same story with water.
We cash in all our 10c drink vessels, put everything in the right bin. We have the smallest red (landfill) bin available and it's only ever half full.
Our cars are serviced well and run properly.
The kids all inherit clothes from each other and various cousins. We don't buy a lot of new clothes.
I think we're doing more than most people to just consume less.
But you can't drive your frugality around showing off its green virtue.
Same here in Canada. Met lots of EV drivers that wouldnt spend $80k to do a deep energy retrofit on their house to save energy on heating/cooling because they wont get their monies worth but will buy an EV to save the planet. The energy I save on heating for 4 months of the year after all my upgrades is more than my EV uses all year long.
What colour is your car?
@@davidvanderklauwwhite
@@davidvanderklauw Chartreuse ?
When I lived in the Redlands I frequently saw full sized buses (50 seaters) with less than 3 passengers.
I have been the sole rider of transit buses - less than 5 riders is common.
That's still two more than what the average F150 carries while also getting better mileage.
Of note: I'm aware a bus that large will have a worse economy on paper. However, bus drivers are typically gentle with the throttle and brake so as not to discomfort passengers whereas the typical "owner" (and I use that term loosely as most of these trucks are not paid off) of a Parking-Lot-Princess will play the pedals like a DDR pad. The results are what you expect because _how_ you drive is more important than _what_ you drive.
@@schwarzwolfram7925 the problem is related to the ev's as unlikely as it looks. The "electrification" and the mandates forces the car companies to sell less ice cars so they want to sell the biggest and the most expensive cars they can. So, they scrapped all the small cars (like fiesta) from their offer. Sure there are people who need F150's but not all of them and I really doubt that the people which are using transit buses drive F150's but they might drive fiestas.
I see it every day ... and the trains too
I'm in the UK but my argument goes as follows. A filling station with 12 petrol and diesel pumps could theoretically service 144 vehicles an hour, assuming a 5-minute time to fill up and pay. Each vehicle would then have say 400-600 miles of range from it's fuel tank. If it had 12 EV chargers instead, even rapid ones, it could service something like 15 EVs per hour, flat out, given the best charge rates available. Each EV would then have more like 200-300 miles of realistic range. That's half the range for about 8 times the 'filling' time. Fuel pump power consumption is a fraction of EV charger power consumption, so the existing power supply to the site would be woefully inadequate. You'd therefore need to upgrade the power supply to the site, but then you get the problem that the power grid doesn't have the excess capacity to do that to all the relevant sites. The whole thing is the bright idea of people with no idea of the engineering requirements, hence they talk a load of BS. People are now realising that EVs are not utopia, hence they're now not selling so many!
But you're assuming that the vehicles won't get better. Charging times will get lower, and ranges will get higher. We are only at the start of EV development... not the end.
What if charging stations have massive capacitor banks to deal with peak usage? that way they may not need to draw as much from the grid at any given time. I'm not an engineer in this space.... how about you?
Not sure what you are talking about with EV sales.. they are selling like crazy in Australia, wait list for most manufacturers and the sales numbers are increasing month-on-month
@@Saars1337 In answer to your question, I'm an electrical engineer. Yes, things will progress and improve over time of course, but we're a long way off being able to generate enough and distribute enough power to satisfy demand, here in the UK at least, if there was a sizeable switch to EVs. We already are seeing motorway service areas with banks of new chargers installed which can't be used as the supply to the site is insufficient, plus where there are banks of rapid chargers they are a lot less than rapid when all or most of them are in use. The idea of EVs was to help the environment, which the UK is doing by trying to switch to wind and solar power. As I understand it, Australia still generates a huge amount of its power by burning coal, which totally defeats the object by simply transferring the emissions from the vehicles to the power stations. Here in the UK, EV sales are dropping and dealers can't sell them due to the range and charging infrastructure problems putting people off. On some charging sites they've even had to put in marshals at times to prevent punch-ups due to EV drivers jumping queues to charge rather than wait for hours. I personally know people who have bought EVs and later sold them at a huge loss just to get rid of them and go back to petrol and diesel. We may get there one day, but we're many years away from EV utopia at the moment.
Ha Canberra canned the electric buses as the grid could not do it ... yet magically all these cars will be fine.
Do you have a source for this?
@@santoshrathod123 whikst I could not find the stor stating as the OP did I certainly found various articles relating to reducing the EV bus usage data from may this year....
@@hudsonbear5038 can you provide a source for that?
@@santoshrathod123 31st of March Canberra times has an article on it, also a publication called riotact, And Canberra times 10th of April this year follows up their story
The new bus depot is still being built and the new supply is still being strung from the zone sub station. There has been a delay in getting the new electric buses but they haven’t been canned
Wind/solar arrays are designed to augment baseload not replace it. Once you try replacing coal, gas or nuclear with intermittent sources you're in a heap of trouble.
They are replacing it purely for economic reasons. SA is currently on 70% & increasing.
(Yes, supplying the variable non time critical demand is a great use for non time-able sources. Also filling in for increasing variable demand is admirable.... But maintaining and replacing existing baseload sources (cleaner isn't bad - obviously) is vital to maintaining long term grid stability - in the event of a serious (weather) event - like a nuclear winter, or gigantic multi week (??) storm event obliterating the sun and shutting down all wind on the east coast.. ??? .)
For the SA energy fans.... AEMO Dashboard energy mix is startling to observe - SA is a bit-player...
@@guringai They're not the ones doing most of the replacing though. The majority of solar out there was bought by consumers because they're getting screwed over by power companies. Even with 100% adoption the boondoggle will never end. State or corporate owned mega battery storage systems will just ensure the transition to 'clean energy' has the utility companies acting more like a bank than anything else. A huge 'Battery Bank' where they take and store your energy giving pittance back for it, and then sell/loan out to others with interest. You even get 'charged' to build and replace the bank when needed. Economic reasons indeed. Sure it's essential for the planet. 🙄 People are going to have roof poverty trying to keep ahead of the scam.
The thing about all the renewables , they all have a limited service life and will need continual replacement at some stage , and that will never stop , that goes for the battery’s too , , another thing not considered , is renewables are susceptible to storm damage, and other atmospheric conditions , add to that , it is estimated by 2050 , Australia will have added another 6 million and change people to the population , renewable spirally wind turbines take up a lot of land , a again they need maintenance, , they need access roads 24/7 , there is way more to the cost of renewables than just attaining land , putting massive concrete foundations and erecting the giant turbines , and associated power lines and infrastructure required for them..
@@guringai It's a pity they aren't concerned with reliability or viability. And SA now has one of the highest costs of power in the world.
Retired power industry technician here. Looking at your figures which appear to be spot on, just to cater for an all-electric EV fleet charging up at the same time, you're looking at an extra 5,500MW of generation. That's nearly 2 replacement Erarings or Loy Yang power stations. OK, doable, I guess. But if it's renewable generation then factor in 30% ACF for wind over a 24hr period (solar is even more restricted, obviously), and we're looking at around 15,000MW of extra, not replacement, generation to charge the EVs and spread around the place to capture all potential wind.
Next, local distribution network, you know, the poles and wires as they are wont to say, need considerable beefing up. Local transformers are designed for "normal" loads such as intermittent use during the day and night times. Having, say, 300EVs all charging up at night in my neighborhood would require a bloody expensive tranny upgrade, not to mention larger transformers at the local sub-station, extra incoming transmission lines and so on.
To carry the extra load, they'd have to up the supply voltage say, from 22kv to something higher if using existing conductors, upgrade the insulators then installed more HV to LV (anything above 1000v is considered "high voltage" in the industry) transformers along the streets. There are other ways but I'm simplifying it somewhat.
The electrical engineers with whom I worked would love the challenge, especially those who have their own consultancies and engineering companies. Gold flowing all round.
As mentioned above, it's all doable, but who's gonna pay for it all? Currently, here in Victoriastan we pay around $1 a day supply charge. I shudder to think what that will rise to to pay for all the infrastructure upgrades to cater for the EV charging stations at home.
Sure, we can all get on the PV/Battery bandwagon, but even with rebates you're looking at a shitload of cash. Do we just top up the mortgage to pay for it? I got a quote last week. An extra 5kw of solar along with a 17kwh battery (giving me around 10kw of installed PV capacity) will set me back some $15,000. But that 17kwh of stored energy won't charge my 60kwh EV overnight.
I haven't checked out your solar options as you're up in Sinney and I'm in rural Vic, unless you service all of Oz. I'll have to check.
In Dunkirk, France, all busses have been free to use since 2017. Thus, there are lots of them and they are full, and the roads are less so. In Germany you can buy a €9 ticket that gives you unlimited transport for a month on all buses, trams and trains, except the fast intercity trains. Thus the trams and buses and trains are full, and the roads less so. And quick because there is no ticket or fare collecting.
Carbon capture is like putting in a urine filter to clean the pool water while 2 toddlers are standing at the other end pissing in the pool. How about potty training those toddlers?
I mean it can be done...
but it's the scale, it is planetary engineering level of scale though to do it and have the double impact of attempting to fix the climate issues.
Doable...yes....technically..
By humans as they are? not a chance in our greedy little minds would we be able to achieve it. The cost would be something amusing though.
And carbon capture itself costs about 30% extra in fuel consumption to account for the inefficiency of the process itself (coal combustion).
@@garetht677 what climate issues? 'Global warming' is a big oil price control ploy ...
CO2 levels are NOWHERE NEAR dangerous levels ... the only effects to the environment so far have been POSITIVE
In parts of Perth last night, we had 3 power cuts from rain!! This is typical. Normally first rains cause “dust wash-off”. Then we have a couple of storms that cause “trees falling on power lines!”. Then we have the odd heavy rain and “too much rain!!” If we add EV to the system, welcome to brown-town!!!!
The state Labor government REFUSES to build more power stations ... they've actually been closing stations ... they have been asking the population to reduce their water and power consumption for decades ... and per capita the people have done it ... but you CANNOT have an increasing population with no increase in power generation or water supply
July is National Bin Camera Month. Write to your local Member to demand AEJC complies now !
Just as a real-world FYI, my EV has averaged 14.8 kWh per 100 km (indicated) this year. When measuring actual energy consumption at the plug, which accounts for charging losses, this figure increases to 16.1 kWh per 100km. I am not light-footed, so the quoted 17 kWh figure is likely reasonable. Of course, that doesn't account for full-size SUV EVs, I guess.
WOW! That's so virtuous.... A fu*k'n 12y old slave mined the cobalt in your EV. FU*K YOU! Hope your EV subjects you to the pain you exposed that 12y old to, signalling how fantastic you are.
those are the losses at charging at low current, at the supercharger the losses are greater
@@orionbetelgeuse1937 Yeah, actually, I find fewer losses at the fast charger. The granny charger seems to have 10-15% loss at home, but the fast charger is more like 5% loss (based on my personal calculations, anyway). Nevertheless, it's a part of owning an EV and something often overlooked by people.
@@L0000NEY the charger has itself losses which are not accounted for. At the fast charger you only see the losses of the battery but at the granny charger you see the losses of the battery plus the charger that's why it seems better but as any electronic device which has to convert the medium voltage AC to DC it has some losses 5-10%. Overall it's the same.
The problem ultimately is you can't run society off renewables. You you steady dependable energy 24/7. You cannot store enough energy in batts and can't make enough with existing resources.
Intermittent sources of energy needs a different grid design that deals with both supply and demand by reducing demand when required, start putting domestic batteries in place connected to your smart grid, charger for free when the sun is shining and there is ample solar and then use your battery in the evening when you come home, minimal impact on grid
@@MrJaykay12345run the DC AC power nightmare by a electrical engineer.
@@0Aus I am one 😃, educated to masters level including power systems design , ac/dc conversion , electricity ⚡️ is just more efficient than burning something even if you lose a few percent between transmission and conversion for electricity , combustion in a internal combustion engine is mostly about 20% efficient maybe up to 40 for diesel or certain newer engines in a car or truck. That efficiency doesn’t take in to account the energy required to get the oil out of the ground , refine it and get it your local gas station which I have seen estimates of around 15% of the well to wheel energy loss.
@@MrJaykay12345 interest, so why are you now talking about something totally different?
You went from electrical energy to liquid fuel?
Education on the subject oh ok.
Nuclear power could solve most of the grid level issues. It’s obviously rather less practical for industry and large scale transportation, although Ford did propose a nuclear-powered commuter car back in 1958. That project didn’t get off the ground for some reason. Not enough Libyan terrorists available to steal plutonium from, I guess…😉
On the point of super fast charging, what effect does that have on the longevity of the battery?
Slow charging is always better.
It's not good for them. Fast charging significantly reduces battery life, and it also creates a lot of heat. The more they push the limits, the more hazmat incidents we'll see.
A few studies have shown recently it doesn’t have as a big impact on battery degradation as theorised , I suspect that most BMSs in EVs theses days are good enough to keep your battery out of danger zones like fast charging too hard when it’s cold or too hot , the old Leafs had very poor thermal controls and management, the modern Tesla battery loses a bit over the first few years and then seems to level out with slow degradation over time regardless of fast or slow charging and seems to be generally better at managing this.
DC fast charging is definitely bad for the working longevity of your battery. Even Tesla states that in its instructions but just doesn’t talk a lot about it. It’s one of the several dirty little secrets of EVs
@@kentuckyken6479 just like ice cars are not as efficient as the manufacturer claims , remember diesel gate 😝, or try use your diesel car and drive it continuously only 4 or 5 km or shorter trips from engine cold , not good for your engine , it’s all swings and roundabouts , each machine has their own short comings and operational sweet spot. Most people with home or destination won’t need to be fast charging all the time
I’m off grid with solar and petrol generators and according to the estimated usage data I should be able to run on my batteries for several days - but, I have quickly found that I can empty my batteries in a day. So all this forecasting is fantasy… I now have to rearrange my work around sunshine ☀️ and not what I need to do.
Sooo we run our industry only on “Sundays” ? 🤡
Sounds like you have not put any effort into designing your system or there is something wonky with your calcs. What size are your systems?
Sounds like YOUR forecasting is fantasy.
Sounds like someone led you up the garden path.
Nuclear is coming to our shores soon bruz just you wait. They will make us convert to electric vehicles first, so we end up having no choice other than go nuc. Meanwhile energy distributors are complaining we're overloading the system with excess energy... Humanity is fn batshit crazy!
Fun fact. I live in Oshawa Ontario right between TWO NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS. We can’t power our air conditioners during a heat wave. How the fuq are we gonna charge huge numbers of evs. I do love my ebike
27:05 Being a Queenslander, I'm keen to see how overloaded or not our public transport becomes with the introduction of 50 cent flat rate fares on the 5th of August.
I fear that this idea wasn't very well thought out by the political advisors who thought it up.
In order for something like this to work, you also need to expand the reach of public transport and the frequency of services.
@@BradGryphonn Are you an Australian living in Queensland or a Queenslander living in Australia?
They just move the extra costs to people through taxation .... the fare price hasn't changed
Imagine the volume of copper required !!!!
Recently in America it took about 3 years to build just 800kms of new transmission lines. The current renewables plan requires somewhere between 10,000-28,000kms of new power lines to be built. Just imagine how long that would take to build even if enough increasingly scarce copper could be sourced?
Mining companies have already warned they DO NOT have the capacity to meet even 50% of the expected demand of copper, lithium and other minerals ... and that includes the new mines they expect to come online in the next 10 years
When is bin cam coming?
When he can afford the data storage for all the takes.
Why is Nobody is talking about Shipping, Airplanes, Trains, Trucks and rockets, cars are fuck all compared to them.
Cars (livht vehicles) are roughly half of all transport emissions. They're called 'facts'. It's about 10% of the total emissions in Aus.
@@AutoExpertJCYou sure about that? Personal transport emits a disproportionate amount of vehicle generated-emissions in the US, Australia & Canada, I presume. I reckon the numbers are pretty bad in China at this point. I was under the impression that they were a rather smaller percentage worldwide & that industrial transportation spewed out quite a bit more CO2 & other nasty gasses.
I might be mixing up with numbers, though.
The older I get the more convinced I am we are all sailing on a ship of fools, with a never-ending stream of captains all having the magical answers. But it seems the ship is sinking anyways.
Too many virtue signalling left wing "useful id!0t5" living in their perfect imaginary world ... rather than facing reality
France is aiming for Net Zero with nuclear, apparently Australia isn't capable of doing that because we are hopeless.
and helpless
France went big for Nuclear power decades ago because they had little choice. They've had decades to build nuclear industrial capability. We do not have that capability, not in the time we have available. No one is building reactors quickly or cheaply.
@@thosdot6497 facts.
Hopelessly shitting our collective pants at the mere mention of the N word. Ever since the 80's, when the newspapers were full of double page anti-nuclear advertising - using the ubiquitous mushroom cloud backdrop, Aussies have been shit scared of even the concept. Our politicians have ALL been towing that same line the entire time too - until Dutto the fucking potato suddenly decided to change his mind AFTER they lost to hopeless Albo.
I have always said it was the coal and oil companies who bankrolled the anti-nuclear movement, because they are the only ones who benefitted from it.
@@thosdot6497 absolutely. It's like they say about what to expect from doing anything "quickly and cheaply". I don't trust either the Pink Batts clowns, nor the Robodebt criminals to implement or run a nuclear programme.
Hi John,
You underestimate the effect of a train. My friend a bus driver told me that when there a breakdown of a Sydney 8 car train it takes over 50 buses to empty the train at peak hour. So that over 2000 people on the train.
And in the international context an 8 car train isn't that big. In the UK we run a lot of 12 car trains for getting people into London, and we run a lot of them, regional cities are not as well served and 8 car or less is a common sight in many smaller cities.
FYI Sydney trains are all double deck.
NO ... those buses aren't full
In Perth in summer time we get told to turn out air conditioners to 24° and no Les because the current grind cannot cope, with the introduction of a lot of people wanting induction cookers ducted air conditioning or multiple split systems and now EVs there's no way our grid is going to cope
Thanks Labor and the Greens
Excellent video, very enjoyable, big thumbs up (no emoji).
Public transport here in the UK is a joke. I have to get 30 miles down the road every couple of months. Public transport is: 25 mins walk, 15 mins on bus, three trains that if you are lucky connect okay but you usually wait for connections then another 30 minute walk. 2 hours 15 minutes door to door! Wonderful. No car so have no option.
Absolutely spot on.
A functional mass transport system any city /town in the world would be a far better and cheaper solution to achieving net zero.
But the politicians, when they talk about net zero actually mean zero, they cannot accept that close to net zero actually works better.
They ignore the fact that EVs are not even close to any kind of zero emissions and at the moment are actually worse for the environment due to the short lifespan of the cars.
Forget about lithium. Where we getting all this copper? Wind uses 3-5 times as much copper MW for MW. AND, they don't even run as often so you need more of them for the same amount power. The 143 7mw windmills would use 3-5 times the amount of a copper a 1gw power plant would use. Plus, you need the redundancy in the windmills, so maybe 250 instead of the 143.
Plus all the additional wiring for the grid. Plus all the wiring for all the electric motors and very heavy cabling each motor needs between the battery and controller and between the controller and the motor.
Maybe it's time Christopher Bowen takes one out of Peter Costello's baby bonus book. Have one for mum, one for dad, and one for the Lithium mine.
As long as Bowen does not do that, his Gene trail should be as short as possible.
Diesel generators are going to be a popular product in the future! Not just in Australia.
The fact that the very questions that need to be asked are being avoided with zeal sends off the scam alarm.
I can't come any where close to running even my small business off solar. Much less an entire industrial society.
As far as Public Transport Japan is the gold standard, their rail system is second to none, Peronally used it and very impressed.
Just need some people on the platforms to force the people on to the train at peak times
Just a note for clarification, the CO2 scrubbers in military rebreathers are soda lime and have been for many decades. The lithium hydroxide was not introduced until 2010 and is mainly used in hospitals. As for rebreather kits, there are 2 types: closed circuit and semi-closed. The former use O2 with a constant mass flow reducing valve or a make-up/on demand system. These are used for sneaky beaky work as they make no bubbles. The latter are mixed gas sets using oxy/nitro mixes or Oxy/helium. The modern ones are computer controlled and make up the mix in the system as required. These sets make bubbles as the dilutant gas builds up in the exhaled loop and has to be vented, hence it is not used for sneaky work, but as long as it is quiet and non-magnetic it's good for working on mines. All of these use soda lime scrubbers.
Agree with your comment on improving public transport. The cheapest solution to most of the problems faced in transport in the cities. Despite this we moved to the country over a decade back to get away from the fossil fuel pollution health issues our family was suffering from. Thought health issues are even less spoken about by our media and politicians. Harvard University, in collaboration with the University of Birmingham, the University of Leicester and University College London, found that more than 8 million people died in 2018 from fossil fuel pollution, significantly higher than previous research suggested-meaning that air pollution from burning fossil fuels like coal and diesel was responsible for about 1 in 5 deaths worldwide. Death from COVID in 3 years only came to 7 million globally and we shut the hole world down for that!
I have been in every " alternative energy " business in last 40 years starting with wood stoves in the 70s. It's all fantasy including solar.
I can tell you John that back in the early 2000s the NSW government did look at making all government owned PT free. It was worked out that so much of the cost of running it was in the collection of fairs and chasing fare evaders, that eliminating fares altogether would result in a saving of a couple of million per yr on the operating costs.
Then costs of the bureaucrats will rise sharply after 5 years.
I've been waiting for something like this to come out. I'm an engineer in the UK, watching with interest as both the Conservatives and now Labour are pushing for an electric utopia as described here! It's utter nonsense, and I say that as an engineer in the electric supply industry. The national grid here is adamant that it can supply the demand that it's expecting from electric vehicles, and to a point it can. The transmission side of things will have the capacity, but the distribution side is woefully lacking in capacity.
The UK like Aus has a method of determining the maximum demand a house will normally require and then applies "diversity" to it. This means that whilst it may have a total possible, suck it from the cables demand of 100A at 230V, the reality is that it and its neighbours would rarely do that, if ever, at the same time. So the 600A fuses at the local sub can stay cool. It therefore means the reality is that the substation transformer will be rated at around 1.5-2kW per three bed house on gas heating (for instance). But under certain circumstances, the sub is designed to provide 160% overload during the evening peak, and the Sub can be left to cool overnight. The advent of EVs now means that theoretically that evening peak will be much higher than 160%, and will extend long into the cooling off period of the sub, thus stressing the Transformer, cables and switchgear.
The answer to this, and to prevent eye wateringly high costs of replacement of all this, is; Smart Charging for most older installations. I've recently looked at the new "after diversity maximum demand" tables of one utility, and before hand it had a rating of 0.25kW per bedroom + 0.5kW, which means 1.25kW for the average three bed gas heated home. Now, after some consideration, they've updated the kW to 1.7kW plus 0.5 x the value of a charger on top, thus increasing the ADMD by over three times that of before. The same utility has also downrated its standard fuse from 100A to 80A because of the change of demand from a cyclic demand to a sustained one. In short, Electric utopia is a pain in the arse.
The there's the 8 million or so of us who can't charge at home, and the government don't seem to know how to accommodate us!
The transition will be painful, but INEVITABLE because they will be far cheaper, safer, and less expensive to run than ice cars
My question is, having your EV charging at home every night, how much is your electricity bill going to cost? What's the increase over your normal bill?
If you have to ask, you can't afford it.
A fortune, there is no way the retailers are going to leave that profit on the table.
It is the cost of your electricity tariff rate multiplied by the number of kWH. The amount of kWH depends on the amount of driving since the last charge. EVs consume between about 16-22kwH per 100 km of travel. The next step of the transition though is that many retailers and DNSP’s are introducing cheaper rates during the 10-3 pm solar maximum, hence charging during the day is cheaper and better for the environment, and better on the grid
It's not significant I've got an EV and live in outer suburbs with an all electric house and no gas. My electricity bill is around $800 per year. Most of that is occured in two worst Melbourne winter months I get no bills over summer thanks to solar.
People who live in the city usually drive a lot less then the average, but stratas and council are slowly putting in public chargers.
EVs are rediculously cheap to run.
I also WFH a few days a week so charge on those days when electricity is literally free on EV plans even when the solar is not running.
@@TroyArrandaleThat's a very small annual bill, do you have panels and batteries?
You are not understanding how our wonderful new form of capitalism works. Surge pricing is the new black and with smart meters which most house have fitted now, the retailers will know when you plug your EV in. In most cases that will be overnight and they will charge accordingly just like when petrol goes up on long weekends.
Maybe all the tradies can sacrifice all their cordless tools. Except for the radio as they will want to listen to AM talk back. As they will struggle with 240 volt leads.
As an electrician I’ve always said the grid won’t handle everyone charging evs at home, also down in Victoria they are wanting to phase out gas usage, which means that ducted heater will be replaced with reverse cycle air conditioners, gas hot water with heat pumps and gas cooktops with induction cooktops, all need power and will put pressure on the grid.
In the ACT they are well on the way to phasing out gas. It's f*n great in -7 degrees with a reverse cycle heater trying to heat the house as it de-ices.
3 phase all the way.....
Solar power doesn't work very well at night. Switch to driving at night and charging during the day, and all will be well.
Your perfect public transport system is up and running. Just take a trip to Tokyo and watch their railway system in action. Peak hours a train every three minutes moving around approximately 3-5 million every morning and again in the evening.
Don't forget the "pushers" on the railway platforms. Trains work for coal, *_not for people._*
What you are not thinking about is how small Japan’s land mass is in comparison to Australia. Singapore also has a wonderful rail system, but it is the smallest city state in the world. How many $trillions would it take to replicate these systems here, and don’t forget it would take at least a century to finish.
@@aliendroneservices6621 The "pushers" are hardly there anymore. The designs of things changed a long time ago to solve this problem. While it can happen at peculiar times, it is NOT AT ALL normal in their stations.
Can the Grid cope with 10%EVs by 2030...Nope!
Can the Grid cope zero by 2035 ... Nope!
Can the Grid cope as it is now without any additional base load generators to 2030 ... Nope! even if you TRIPLE renewables.
Right now 5:30pm Renewables are providing ONLY 9% of the demand.
Great discussion on the power grid capacity. I’ve been saying this for a couple of years and I’m glad to see someone finally discuss it publicly.
Carbon dioxide scrubbing happens very effectively at small scale in operating theaters and intensive care units. This, in part, is how closed circuit ventilation works safely.
Free public transport is a wonderful idea for about six months - it's been tried before, but after six months the undesirables move in and make the trains their new home and then the patronage falls away.
@@danielstapler4315 Nothing is free. Before any government can give it must first take.
That's an unspoken part about public transport. It can be good and efficient but if it feels like you're in a moving mental/reform institution, you'll take your car.
So true and in these politically correct times it is impossible to resolve this issue.
That part can be fixed by dealing with the undesirables.
@@modarkthemauler By "dealing" I hope you mean helping and not arresting like Florida is trying to do.
No it fucking can't!
Can't argue with that!
Why don't our Actual Idiot Government "Advisers" say it like it is.
Can you imagine Parament Question time if Politicians just use plain language and told the truth? (hard)
Q: Can the grid cope?
A: No it fucking can't!
Greens: more renewables
Chamber: Faark OFF.
Chair: OK We go Nuclear.
Problem solved in under 30 seconds.
I gather you drive a Ranger ute 😂
I started working at an equestrian center earlier this year ...
'muck raking' has a more tangible meaning than it used to
honest work, good for the body and mind, the horses basically live in personal jail cells overnight; giving them affection, dressed and sprayed, out for the day and a clean stall ... best you can do for them as most owners visit less often and spend less time with them than you would think for a large, very costly life they choose to own.
i Really enjoyed this one John,the national monument to the death of integrity in public life is very apt for that place.This episode had that much sense and logic.
The big problem is Heat Pumps that is what is causing Black Outs in New Zealand
They don't call them the All Blacks for nothing....
er say what
...but it only takes 1.21GW to go back to the future.
The idea is to remove vehicles. The idea is not to replace them. two elderly persons, sitting on different seats on a train (Victoria) were attacked and called racist. That could be a reason why people don't want to use public transport.
The biggest problem with Public Transport is the fact that it’s open to the public. I’m triggered by the prospect of sitting next to some low-life whose BO could be classified as a WMD.
And of course 3 months into the PT experiment, I notice that there’s fewer cars on the road and hence I could get to the office in half the time if I drove my own car.
Not everyone works in the CBD.
I would be intrigued to know how much carbon material is used to manufacture and maintain one wind turbine? Are there large quantities of oil and lubricants used in these generators and how often are they replaced?
Well, dude, if they are USING carbon, that's great if they are sequestering carbon in the blades in using it, fantastic.
Any oil or other lubrication used is a drop in the ocean compared to literally burning the fossilised carbon and returning it to the atmosphere, so I'm not sure what point you're trying to make.
About 300 litres of oil for the gearbox , changed about every 2 to 3 years. Gearbox oil can however be re-refined unlike fuel which is just burned.
@thosdot6497 Fossils aren't made of carbon
The blades are made of fiberglass, the resin is made from oil
Most of the time busses are on the road, they're near empty. Dedicated bus lanes keep busses moving, but drastically slow down the rest of the traffic, vs. having that lane open to all.
I'm thus far incredibly unimpressed with the supposed benefits of expanding public transportation, though I'd imagine busses and trains in Sydney and Melbourne would at least be considerably less disgusting, awful, and dangerous than busses and trains in Chicago, DC, LA, or NYC.
We as a species has overcome these issues before. Where was all the oil going to come from when we started building cars, diesel trucks, diesel electric locomotives, oil burning ships, etc? We did it and now have to change again. It will not happen in a day but it will happen. I would propose that we change the building codes to require renewable energy, vehicle parking with charging, electric storage, etc. Cars are cars and take a lot of materials regardless of type. New vehicles require new electronics and even they are slimming down, i.e. CAM BUS vs Ethernet.
Do you think a junk-yard would not harvest the catalytic converters and not batteries. These are profit centers. Even everyday automotive 12V batteries are recycled in my area for about US $10 each. You seem to think the marketplace can’t take handle the problem.
I stopped asking those questions after doing some simple maths. There is no way it can be provided from the grid but this is not about carbon it is all about control. You get an EV and then look at how and why it connects to the internet either via the manufacturers web site or generically and you will see that you will be green not by using an EV but by being controlled into not using it.
Listening to you about the numbers and quantities of power required
There is absolutely no way any of this is possible on any level unless every fuel station had its own mini nuclear reactor in its basement to make that much power
This labor government is off its chops with crap
Yes and labor party just won an election in the UK😮
Yes this a good solution to EV problem, unfortunately safety and security risks are too high.
You point the finger at the government but businesses are doing this independent of the government...
@@SteveEddy-od7fbLabour won yes. But that's because the u.k is broke from using austerity to save themselves. Funnily enough it didn't work.
Nuclear is by far the best option for low-carbon high-density grid power.
When I was in a wheelchair, I hated public transportation. So happy to be able to drive my own vehicle.
Well done as always! Cheers from Carmel, CA!
Well, the world is apparently getting greener because of CO2. Plants will scrub it out. Didn't experts do research and found that CO2 levels were way higher in the past?
John Cardigan my name is James my first response to your post upcoming however I have watched every one of your post for 8 months or so. I have approximately 30 years experience as a auto service repair technician including body and frame repair.electric Jesus is not even interested in my ideas of an electrolysis H2 gas injector witch would be installed in the intake runner 1 per cylinder maybe we should colaberate at some point I can do a lot of neat stuff and I suffer from other people shirt enough because I to have a brain that can do complex math.and a skill set to do anything I want with a I C E transport vehicle I am sure I could prototype a 94 Cummins d350 in less than 6 months with some of your knowledge. And as dangerous as H2 can be I believe these conversations are far safer than any lithium battery E V could ever be based on not only my observation.also what I have learned from your research as well.
Please never stop posting
EVs are now 1% of cars in Australia. Since 2016 electricity generation has increased by 10% mainly due to new renewable energy projects.
Your quick math regarding Australia's ability to power an all-EV fleet leaves out all of the other consumers of electricity. What about houses, apartments, factories, schools, shopping centers, streetlights, offices, etc?
Unless we either -
A. Build a fuck ton of nuclear
B. A fuck ton of Coal
Then no.
Coal is not going to be any good for the environment plus it is finite, how much energy is needed to extract the coal, and the quality will get poorer and poorer because the low hanging fruit is picked first. Once it takes more energy to exact and release the energy contained within the coal then it's game over. Coal, it's going away and we should get over coal.
Needs fuck ton of transmission grid upgrades
@@jimjohnson8864 and that.
We can use gas which is a better back up because you can turn it on and off easier.
And the decommissioning will be..................?
no
AEMO said that the East Coast will need 26 new gas power stations to backup renewables but they will need to run on diesel because of a shortage of gas, so much for Net Zero.
AEMO also said it only expects these generators to be used around 5% of the time. So only about 15-18 days a year. It is possible to install more RE so those gas generators aren’t needed, but it’s a bit more expensive for something used so infrequently.
As for zero emissions, the longer plan is to run them on green H2 made from excess RE.
Canada's grid can't handle EV loads either...not sure any nation really can.
Brisbane is about to conduct the 'cheep public transport experiment' with max 50c trips about to start on 5th August....
It will be very interesting to see how many less cars will be on the road vs how many extra buses/trains/ferries will have to be scheduled.
Fun times ahead!!!!
I'm quite sure fare pricing was the least of the deterrents.
It's been done over and over. It won't achieve anything.
The average new rooftop PV system is now 10 kW. Only a nut wouldn't charge from that.
Normally you are at work, with your car, when the suns out. That tends to be a big problem if you wish to charge said car from said house PV, when they are 70 km apart...
@@Motumatai3 how do you know when he is at work and how far away his work is from his home?
@@Neilhoh3the point is you don't have to be a nut, just not there.
Having just looked you're doing an overly generous bit of rounding up.
Over here that system will cost you £9500 without a charging point or battery. That's a lot of money. In fact it's about 3 times the vlaue of most people's cars in our street. They aren't buying it. It's pie in the sky money for someone barely making ends meet.
I agree totally with you. Non-shit public transport would be the answer. Unfortunately, for the past 116 years, suburbia has been designed and built around the motor car, making retro-building efficient public transport difficult and expensive. The amount of money spent on multiple highways from suburbia to the big cities and ports would have been better spent designing suburbs integrated into public transport. When my son was cleaned up by a moron driving through a stop sign, I looked at trying to get him to where he needed to go for work using public transport. Catching the first train at 5.00am and walking the last two kilometres to work from the closest bus stop. He only had to miss one bus connection through timing or technical issues to have a 1-hour wait for the next bus, thus missing his work start time. As my brother was off work, he drove him to work and picked him up for two weeks until his car was repaired.
Renewables need backup from coal, gas or diesel, so much for Net Zero.
When I lived in a DC suburb 8 miles outside the city there was a bus stop at the end of the block and a Metro station a quarter mile away. Driving would take 15-20 min, including parking. The Metro would be 30-35 after walking to/from the stations at either end. The bus was 35-45 because it required a connection. If you value your time at all personal transportation is the only logical solution.
from what I've heard public transportation in the usa is a joke.
just because your government is incompetent, that doesnt mean public transport is bad.
well run systems can be very effective.
ive noticed in several cities public transport is not equal.
a city can have great train/ tram service but buses might be absolute trash.
also public transport should not be run for profit. it is a public service and should be treated as such.
Power companies have been hurting for decades due to a drop in the expected growth of electricity demand. It looks like the demand for electricity may finally be going up again, and most power companies are not going to be worried about the growing load for data centers and for EVs, they are salivating.
If they’re worried, it’s more about loss of some of that swelling pie to independent power producers and individuals putting in their own solar power.
As heating moves away from residential NGas the electricity demand has to rise - even if a lot of the BTU ends up being offset via heat pumps..
Does that mean rolling blackouts are planned events?
Great content John as always. Big fan over here in Scotland.
Hi Mr John. 15 years ago, I knew nothing about brands and their behavior. Since then I understood a lot about reality. I saw one of your independent videos, and from that, I read a lot of recalls, court decisions, statements, etc. So I wrote a book, published on Amazon, called How do I choose my next car? (5 $ the price). I have your approoval to write here the link? I think people should know about some actions and behaviors of some of the brands ( Toyota, Suzuki, JEEP, Volkswagen, etc.). Or that some statements are nothing more than myths that are simply not true: ,,Nobody ever died in XC90, the safest car in the world. " Thank you.
I stopped using public transport when the window lickers and those with pocket knives and cans of spray paint can redesign the interiors at will.
Lets also not forget the amazing art work created on the outside of the trains, free expression of art. Just wonderful.
Travelling in a train carriage catapults you to amazing world class cities such as San Francisco or Portland in the USA. Defecate and urinate at will, it is your right!
Irrespective of whether you can generate the energy how on Earth will people be able to charge their vehicles at the pumps? There will be chaos even if there were thousands of more stations. It takes too long to charge there will be queues off the Planet!
The power grid can't handle people running their aircons at the same time in summer. How is the grid going to handle everyone coming home from peak hour and plugging in their EVs at the same time. You will have to build more coal fired power stations to supply the base load power to meet the demand.
What about EV tyres? EV’s are heavier and the roads are getting covered with tyre debris
John, I would be interested in your thoughts on electromagnetic radiation and EVs. Is this something we should be talking about.
Probably not. As far as I know, the traction motors are DC which is pretty tame. What you are thinking is AC, any issue with AC is dependent on the frequency as to whether or not that frequency is in a range that could be an issue. I have no idea of what AC frequencies are used in an EV.
Microprocessors are vulnerable to EMP
Traction motors in modern ev as without exception ac motors. Frequency is varied by the motor inverter to control its speed. So the driving frequency is generally from 0 to about 20k rpm or 330hz. The inverter switching frequency is in the 15-30khz region.
As for the em radiation strength, any microwave is a worse offender than a regular EV.
And if you don't believe me, find an EV with an AM radio. Set it to a lowest frequency, and it will pick up the electromagnetic noise the EV produces. And it will be at a low volume, meaning the am radio signals (which is a form of em radiation) are likely to be stronger than whatever the EV produces.
And regarding the microprocessors and emp suspectability, every fuel injected car, or one with abs on or an obd2 port is in trouble in case a big emp happens
The horse men when the cars became popular: You will have to have fuel station everywhere! It will never work. We adapted and it was fine.
🙄🙄🙄
The head of the German grid said 10 years ago that as long as renewables are less then 25% of your grid you are fine, they can be looked on a 'fuel savers' when the wind or sun turns up, but above 25% your are in dangerous territory.
Agree on Public Transport is underrated part of the solution
Public transport is fine as long as it picks me up at my front door …
What we need is to get jobs closer to home and drive less.
Who needs jobs? Just print money and UBI everybody. Can't print food though. Or healthcare...
And smaller cars and less people... ❤
That would be fantastic. Make sure you all do that so I can enjoy my driving in peace. Thanks!
I bought a 6.2lt SS-V commodore wagon that runs on Ethanol and smiles.
Problem solved.
EVs owners tend to drive MORE kms
I love C02....without it we DEI...C02 is at one of it lowest points ever....we need more of it
Agree, we need more smart people like us
I think Hitler or Stalin invented CO2. The world was better off without it. The era of CO2 Prohibition is coming - the air will smell like roses - plants will be scared
All the coal and limestone on earth WAS atmospheric carbon
Your mathing may conclude that only an extra 40GWhrs of generation is required to cover the kms travelled annually, but this doesn’t consider the additional instantaneous load placed on the grid at any one time, as the vehicles aren’t just constantly ‘trickle-charging’. This is especially important when considering renewables, as the instantaneous demand is almost as unpredictable as the weather (though I think most understand that solar doesn’t work so well at night, you know, when you want to charge your EV).
40,000 GWh...
Gigawatt-hours is energy. You're talking about power. I covered that.
This is funny to watch and listen to.
With the amount of EVs here in Norway we have plenty of residential areas with near 100% EVs now and there is no grid issue.
If the grid operators in Australia can't cope with EVs, then that tells me more about the companies or poor regulation in Australia, than what a grid can do.
And to be real here. Not everyone will charge their EV every night at full speed anyway. Most people can easily get their needed charge using 6kW or less at a time when the load on the grid is low.
Implement proper pricing structure and some peak demand pricing and things will work just fine.
@Gazer75
80% of Norway's cars on the road are still ICE.
Your country is 1/20th of the size of Australia, you have 1/5th of the population and you have a shit load of hydro power.
Not quite like comparing apples with apples, is it now?
Norway compared with the Uk is 25% larger but population is 5*5million compared to 67million, 75% live within 10 miles of the coast and 74% live in cities, it’s a long thin country with nowhere to go with masses of hydroelectric power so you if couldn’t make EVs work that would be seriously incompetent.
@@robertgreen9614😉👍 I doubt we will here from Gazer again.
the grid will be ok if u charge using panels at home
Not reliably. A friend of mine recently added a new bank of solar panels and a 10kw battery totally dedicated to charging his new electric car.
With the weather at this time of the year, he can't even charge the 10kw battery in a full day let alone the 70kw battery in his car. And the cost for all that was $30,000 to charge a $50,000 EV. Doesn't make a lot of sense to me!
@@awc900 live in moscow ?
@@margarita8442 No he lives in country South Australia. In Moscow at the moment it might work as it's mid summer there! BTW, that 10kw will only charge the car about 15%. The cost of larger batteries is astronomical.
@@awc900is he draining the EV battery every day then? I suggest he bought the wrong car
Might be a challenge if you live in an apartment block.
Nice gay t-shirt John !!!
Found in aTesla at the catholic church?
Or taken from the saint Vinnies clothing bin ......he won't want to be caught by the priest or the bishop 😮
Great analysis. Some things are worse here regarding electricity supply. Switzerland is a shining example with regards to public transport. Mind you, the system is heavily subsidized. Greetings from Switzerland and Austria
It was we road horses, then we drove car, then we road on buses. What's next back to horses 😮