Trump LEADS Biden in My First 2024 Electoral College Map Prediction
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 30 ธ.ค. 2023
- Rather than provide the usual data-driven analysis you see on this channel, this 2024 presidential election map forecast and analysis will be entirely based on my own personal predictions for how the election will turn out.
My official 2024 forecasting website: www.electionpredictionsoffici...
Business inquiries: electionpredictionsofficial@gmail.com
Become a member:
/ @electionpredictionsof...
Instagram: / electionpredictionsoff...
Facebook: / electionpredictionsoff...
Twitter: / epofficialyt
Thank you to my channel members!
AllNewYear 2023
Freedom Tompkins
TheDictator
David
Michael Goodman
Daniel Gruhn
Election Predictions Official is the fastest-growing non-partisan political channel on TH-cam, focused on analyzing and forecasting elections based on socio-demographics, polling data, and voting patterns. My official 2020 Presidential Election Forecast correctly predicted the outcome in 49 of 50 states. My 2022 Senate Forecast accurately projected the winners in 33 of 34 races.
Make sure to subscribe to my channel and please leave a like on the video if you enjoyed it. Leave your thoughts and suggestions for videos you’d like to see from me in the future in the comments below. Until next time!
Let's go Brandon. F$%k JB.
So you support a traitor and a criminal. Joe Biden will kick Trump into next week.
MAGA!
and u
@@xxBLKSNXxx Are you wearing your mask Biden Voter?
Russian 🤖
Trump team should go after New Hampshire or New Mexico like never before. If he can take out either one then he can take the election without PA, MI, or WI. Trump distorts his messaging often, so I think he can pull it off to get some blue voters to favor him instead.
Neither are winnable. Maybe MAYBE New Hampshire, because he almost won it in 2016.
He's not going win any of those states. What are you smoking? He's going to lose.
@@randompillow5146we can win them with paper ballots, same day voting and voter ID.
@@randompillow5146 PA, MI, and WI would be called for Trump before winning NM or NH.
No way in hell trump wins New Mexico but in a best case scenario he could win New hampture but by that point he wins PA and WI by lean margins
in my opinion Texas should be a safe red state, since in the polls Trump should have more votes than in 2020 and Biden less.
It is
With migration be bad and Biden losing the Hispanics definitely, by 10% easily
That's why i think these predictions should use probability of victory rahter then margins. You'd get a more accurate prediction map like that.
Texas has lean margins but probability wise, it's very high for republicans
Minnesota is the same way with middle margins but probability wise is about 95% safe.
Texas is a lock, this person I miss TH-cam channel is under performing in his predictions
even though the illegals coming in texas are paid to vote democrat.
Dont be complacent. Get out and vote biden out. We have to do this america.
Can’t I live in CA 😢
Move to a swing state and make America great again. Lol
I think Trump has a very good shot at flipping AZ, PA and Georgia. We’ll have to see about WI
I’m not sure abt GA, I live here and if Kemp doesn’t endorse him… he won’t win
@@swiftyteo3663 I think he will in the end. Plus black turnout in Atlanta will not be the same as it was in 2020.
Polling in Wisconsin underestimated Trump in 2016 and 2020 and he’s running even with Biden in the state when in 2020 at this point Biden was leading by 7-8.
I think WI has the biggest chance of flipping.
GA will be trumps. Black ppl love convenience and most of us are lazy af. gonna be a lot less votes cast with a different set of circumstances this time. also theres a narrative in our community that trump = more money. idk why, idk if its the economy or the stimmy checks but a lot of people associate biden with less money lol.
Appreciate your hard work for this presentation. We know what a tedious job it is! ❤ We trust you more than the corporate liers and main stream media.
I can’t believe there are people that would even think about voting for Biden!
I can't imagine anyone being pro- Biden lol 😅
The demonrats that live around me in CA
You have PA wrong. Joey has no shot unless he cheats again.
Dems accept those terms.
scranton joe will probably win PA, they voted in John Fetterman
Philadelphia decides who takes PA🤣 try again
@@MarlonAllen-dy9yv It's any city at this point
As TRUMP SHOULD BE. Trump delivered while president. Smart business man, great patriot, totally for Republic and constitution. The person who we want to be president of our country. I am 76years old and I am voting for TRUMP. GOD BLESS YOU MR PRESIDENT.
Smart business man? Found one... He has you fooled.
@@xxBLKSNXxx no not me but you. He ruined our country like a business and was pretty good about it. On the contrary of Ugly Joe.
@@xxBLKSNXxx Justify all the wars happening under Biden watch, he's weak
@@xxBLKSNXxx To be fair. Magats are pretty stupid. like deer in the headlights
@@xxBLKSNXxxcmon bro of course he’s been successful don’t clown yourself.
How many votes in 2004? 125M +/
How many votes in 2008? 125M +/-
How many votes in 2012? 125M +/-
How many votes in 2016? 125M +/-
How many votes in 2020?
more than 130M
more than 135M
more than 140M
more than 145M
more than 150M
more than 155M!!!
155.5 MILLION VOTES!
Strange, isn’t it?
Not really, because the 2020 election introduced mail-in ballots, it is to be expected that there are more votes and that election feeling like the most important ever, also there is slightly more people compared the previous elections
@@herisuryadi6885that's the propaganda story.
@@jamesdunning8650 and what makes you think that?
@@herisuryadi6885 Because there are only 185 million registered voters in America. Meaning that supposedly over 85% of eligible Americans voted in 2020. That's an impossible number to attain in America. Legally that is.
@@jamesdunning8650 how is it impossible to attain legally, there are a few elections that have that many or more eligible voters in terms of percentages that voted
What im trying to figure out though is why havent you made one of these with kennedy jr mr west and jill stein also included even if its only in the states that all 3 have been approved on the ballots. Because you know that Trump is gonna win by a much bigger margin and flip back penn and michigan
Hopefully
I was a Democrat Trump 2024
Same here, was democrat before 2020 but was too young to vote thankfully, I now see how awful the left has become, Trump 2024 for the betterment of our nation
I was a Dem prior to 2016. As soon as the Dems started telling all white men to apologize for our privilege (including dirt poor white men in Appalachia) the days of me being a Democrat were numbered. But I supported Obama in 2008 and 2012
......................ALL Dem's = "ROOD", "BLOOK's"....for "AMERICA" & 'SELECTIVE" "WOMAN".....!!
Blah, I voted Libertarian in 2016 and 2020 and I'm prepared to do so again in 2024
@@richardterroni9433 wouldnt be a bad choice but unfortunately they have no chance of winning
Highly educated =highly propagandized…
lmao yeah everyone who disagrees with you is full of propaganda but you, no you're a critical thinker LOL
I did stay in a holiday inn express last night
Just because you didnt pay attention in school and couldnt get a higher education doesnt mean people who did are propagandized
I'm voting Trump same as last time
And if he loses like he did last time will you at least admit it?
@@ford289cid7 if they didn’t count votes like a 3rd world country nobody would’ve even cried about the election. Don’t lie to yourself that shot was sketchy af.
@@CheezeBOI69 You lost 62 out of 62 lawsuits challenging the results, and won none. Many of the judges who decided against you were appointed by Trump. When are you going to face reality and admit that the reason you think the election was rigged was that you and all your friends watch right wing news media so you think that "everyone knows" the election was rigged?
What happened to those vote counters in Fulton County was disgusting-there were so many death threats and physical attacks the FBI told them to leave their house and go somewhere else for their own safety because even the FBI can't protect them.
@@CheezeBOI69 Trump lost & he knows it. There was no election fraud. He is playing you idiots like a fiddle. It's called a 'big lie' strategy. Look it up. When he wins this time, funnily enough he will not say anything about election fraud. It's only when he loses things are unfair lol
It may take a month or two to count the votes in AZ.
We don’t have the brightest people here. You see who our Secretary of State was.
They better not pull that shit again.
@@lonestarrk9308It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to count how many people chose between two options.
@@SanctifiedLux42 right. they did it deliberately to steal the vote.
If Trump is leading, but if Biden was leading then the call would go to Biden
Scenario 1 Trump 297 to Biden 241. (Likely)
Scenario 2 Trump 312 to Biden 226. (Most likely)
Scenario 3 Trump 317 to Biden 221. (Very likely)
Scenario 4 Trump 345 to Biden 193. (Least likely)
Scenario 5 Biden somehow wins. (Worst case scenario)
Yup, exactly how i see it. I definitely see 312 as the most likely outcome, I dont see any reality where Biden manages to win
The 3 am ballot dumps disagree.@@hellraiser420
@@hellraiser420 yea but we can’t take that for granted majority of us didn’t believe Biden would get in office from the 2020 election. Best way to make sure to get everyone out to vote
@@dustinbergeron7508 absolutely
@@dustinbergeron7508That’s because he didn’t. But people still aren’t ready to admit that yet.
how can you claim their well educated if their still voting democrat ???
Lol
Exactly
Niether party should just assume the other is dead in the water. Either of them could win.
Trump's indictments and other scandals might not be the smoking gun to give Biden the election.
And Biden's poor approval rating and general poor record on many issues might not be ruin his campaign either.
Which is why I'm voting for neither
What "poor record" does Biden have? Inflation down to 3%, GDP rising at 5% annually, which is fantastic. The media overlooks this but gives Trump a pass on the most outrageous things.
Your absolutely right, because if what Biden said on national TV is true!! You will not win a free and fair election if one party cheats!! The Democrats tried to steal the 2016 elections but messed up and trump ended up winning. They perfected there ballot rigging methods in 2020. And I'm afraid they are going to do it again in 2024. And this is NOT a conspiracy theory. There is way to much evidence of ballot box stuffing/ semi loads of ballots crossing state lines to. And to top it all off the voting machines mysteriously malfunctioning.
I appreciate the hard work you put into these polls and maps you do cause from what ive seen theres no and if there is its very little political bias and i find these videos very helpful and insightful into the political state of the union and where people fall to give me an idea of who is having a good chance at running the country thabk you bro you a real one 😊
Umm… the RCP Aggregate has Trump leading Biden by 10% in Michigan…
Let's hope it stays that way.
What's your opinion on doing these by probability of flipping and not margin?
Cause to me, a state like Minnesota could get within 5 points but is firmly solidly blue and won't flip. So the margin makes no difference.
Wild election year ahead 😌
ACTUALLY, the last time before 2016 that MI and PA voted R was in 1988.
I was thinking the same thing.
Correct, with that being the case for Wisconsin in 84. 88 was the most recent presidential election when the three of those states did not all go for the same candidate too.
Awesome video ‼️💯
its always funny to me how this election is considered unpopular by many. Then the individuals who complain about these candidates together, not individually, do not involve themselves in the political process at all to change it. i think if this is who comes out for the general, so be it. I'm not going to be a skeptic and say I'm choosing the lesser between two evils. I take the optimistic approach of choosing whoever is better instead. No human is perfect anyway. idk that's just me i hate when people acknowledge problems without finding solutions and being part of the solution.
Excellent point
The "nobody's perfect" comment is ridiculous when talking about a candidate with 91 federal counts against him, found guilty of fraud already, and has been civilly found liable for sexual battery and defamation.
@@m.turpel4818 Political counts
Pa will go to Trump
Philadelphia says other wise
After seeing what biden has done to this country wouldn't be surprised if Illinois went red too.
I would say Illinois will still be blue due to Chicago, it’s Cook County that makes Illinois a blue state which is honestly unfair, Illinois should have a system similar to Nebraska and Maines instead of a winner takes all, democrats wouldn’t like that since that would give republicans more electoral votes even though it’s fair, Chicago shouldn’t get to decide for the entire state of Illinois.
Will Donald Trump should do is go after Illinois and New York the migrant crisis is crazy in them to States I think Trump could win them two states
Not a hope is he winning those state's
Those would be a waste of time and resources
TRUMP 2024 FLORIDA
What is the name of the website with the polling data?
Real clear politics.
Nevada for Trump 2024! 🎉
Nevada is solidly blue. What kind of a person supports a criminal and a traitor?
@sallywilliams5444 you ain't paying attention if you say Nevada is solid. When every poll being released has trump with a 4+ polling lead in RCP's average. So check your facts.
@@sallywilliams5444??? Dang what?
Polls...lol@@JoeyRisner
@@sallywilliams5444you Democrats are hypocrites, you support a war monger that takes taxpayers money to fund a genocide in gaza killing CHILDREN wake up. Why arent the Democrats having a primary election is that democracy?, rfk jr wanted to be run against Biden but the Democrats warned rfk jr not to or they would take him off state ballots that's why he's INDEPENDENT,, and you lot cry about DEMOCRACY,
I see a contingent election- with Trump winning by a very slim margin. Keep in mind I'm a die hard independent.
You didn't cater for statistics with respect to how multiple 3rd party options like RFK Jr, Cornel West and Greens would affect Trump and Biden's vote share. Thats going to be critical.
After the fires in HI, it might surprise you.
What 8 states did Trump do better in 2020 then he did in 2016?
By vote total, technically he did better in most of the swing states that flipped for Biden. Compared to 2016.
Vary fair take
Why not add third party candidates, at least rfk jr?
Papa Trump 2024 💪
good man Trumpy 45=47
And I really hope someone donates some money to him for his legal fees 🙏🏾
Trump , sorry but it was way better
This is my sense of the current political climate. Let me know what you guys think
Staying the same blue: WA, OR, CA, HI, IL, NM, MA, VT, CT, RI, NH, DE, MD, DC
Noticeably shifting more blue: CO, TX, AZ, GA, AK
Gradually shifting more blue: MI, WI, PA, KS
Gradually shifting more red: NV, MN, ME, VA, NY, NJ
Noticeably shifting more red: FL, OH, IA, MO
Staying the same red: ID, MT, WY, UT, ND, SD, IN, NE, OK, AR, LA, MS, AL, SC, TN, KY, WV, NC
I am pretty sure that NC and WI are shifting to the right. I would put them both as gradually shifting more red.
@@user-cx5pc3tx8z Wisconsin right yes but ive lived in NC basically all my life and its definitely more blue now. its become a destination for people from NJ & NY. Its a cheaper alternative with better weather & less crime.
@@user-cx5pc3tx8z Interesting. What is your reasoning?
NJ shifting red? In what world?
@@MarlonAllen-dy9yv It had a republican governor relatively recently and in the last gubernatorial election a near no-name republican almost defeated the incumbent democrat. Hillary and Biden also "only" won the state by 14 and 16 respectively, where as Obama won it by 18 in 2012. It also has a lot of Jews, who I think will start voting more Republican after seeing how much the progressives hate them in the last 3 months. It's gradual, very gradual, but I think it's happening.
How was Obama doing a year away from the 2016 election?
what difference would it make Obama was ineligible to run again in 2016
The difference is that Obama has a record to run on and Romney wasn't a particularly strong candidate.
Biden's record is hot garbage, he hasn't done anything positive and Trump is a lot more electable then people think.
Obama was term limited in 2016. It didn't matter how he was doing.
Biden is no Obama...not by a LONG shot. And Obama didnt run in 2016, Hillary did.
What?
First Biden, has to make it to the election. He is old a feeble. Three of my friends past away this year all men 80 to 81, one losing his marbles, How will the Debate go? How will Hunter muddy the waters? How about the Biden impeachment investigation? The Trump stuff is making him a martyr. I would prefer a Manchin s. Haley.
How will Trump do he is only a couple years younger than Biden and has the stress of several court cases. I want to see how both men do at a debate, which Trump has been running and hiding from so far.
Just so you know Kentucky is most definitely a Southern state same as Tennessee or North Carolina. You also labeled Missouri as a Southern state when its considered mostly a Midwestern state(Southern Missouri is definitely still Southern)
I had a whole conversation with my wife about how Missouri is a southern state, but also not a southern state. Geography vs culture is how I put it.
@lonestarrk9308 It's one of those deals where historically Missouri was a Southern state and didn't really transition into more of a Midwestern state till after the Civil War due to Midwestern migration overcoming the original Southern culture and albeit with still heavy Southern influence and Southern Missouri still being the South. Now Kentucky is just flat out a Southern state, like same as Tennessee or North Carolina. Pure Upper South. To me once you cross into Kentucky you're in South Proper.
Still months and months away
And in those months and months I’m not changing my mind. TRUMP 2024!
The country needs to be red, or we're all in trouble
@@stephenflood5374 it will be , with a free and fair election.
@@CommaderJohnTrump 2024 indeed broski
I approve this video
Go Trump go...
Go Tramp gor
100% for "BOLD"......... "RED" & NO TRAP's
!!
'Hopefully" 'AMERICA",WILL follow the rood "LAW's' of ...."A M E R I C A"....!!
...."GO","GO","GO","GO' "RED" & GO BROCK NO "GAME" for ("AMERICA") THE...... {"B E A U T I F U L"}.....!!
Eff Jay Bee! XD
Not voting for either they’re both Old where the young generation at its time
In my opinion, I would flip Arizona democrat while flipping Pennsylvania Republican.
NV and AZ won’t go red all the others may but they won’t
Arizona I'm sure will! Nevada has a decent chance of flipping it seems as of right now too!
pa will be FOR TRUMP
What happens if Trump is kicked out of Maine?
Write him in?
they switch to caucus
He’s still on it. It’s just politically motivated optics by a wannabe clout chaser.
He will be back on it, don't worry
Either he gets written in or gets 1 less electoral vote from their district.
I don't think so
Why people flavors some one did terrible thing other than some one do the right thing are we wrong?
How are the Democrat "migrants" going to vote?
I think either Trump wins all of those 3 rust belt state's or Biden does. I agree with the rest of your predictions.
I think that either WI or MI will break away from the trio this year.
2024 is fucked. It’s either a too-old guy or a complete criminal.
So how is Trump a criminal?
vote 3rd party
Trump 2024
Amen
I am a citizen of Colorado. The state has 9 electro votes, not 10.
Incumbency will be a non-factor in this election because both candidates are in a sense incumbents. And if most people have made their mind up about who to vote for between Biden and Trump, that favors Trump. The vast majority of those that voted third party in 2016 backed Biden in 2020. The third party vote will increase in 2024, which hurts Biden far more than Trump. Kennedy hurts Biden significantly more in Michigan and Wisconsin, as polling shows, which would allow Trump to take both of those states.
And in a matchup between two overall unpopular candidates, the base of each party will quite likely determine the winner. Almost no one actually likes Biden, but a significant share of the population actually likes Trump. That gives Trump an advantage, and will allow him to win this election.
And the only states I disagree with are Arizona and Michigan, I think each votes the other way.
Nah RFK were trumpers in 20
@@RB-.- Look at the polls. Kennedy will pull from both candidates, but he will pull more from Biden. He's a Kennedy, they are basically Democrat royalty.
I also think new hampshire could flip to trump this year too. Biden is doing badly there.
Why does Nebraska allow that separate district?
Is Buffett that powerful there to give BLM its own district?
With that being said Florida is on a “slippery slope” to becoming a solid Republican state. As if it’s a bad thing. Lol.
Newsome is rooting for trump victory so he can run in 2028
Even if Trump loses Newsome can still run in 2028
Incumbent President Trump**
i think trump will get ha, pa and il
America was way better under Trump, no inflation, and people could afford to go places and do things
Don't be stupid. You seem to have forgotten Jan 6th, Covid, and the 9000 other lies and mishaps.
Please no
I am cautiously optimistic about these predictions, however we are quite a ways out from 5 Nov.
The Democrats have time . They are going to drive the pro choice message in every swing state ( some have this on their ballot )and eventually their messaging on the economy will start to stick with independent, unaffiliated voters with the aid of the media.
I will support the GOP nominee regardless but it's going to be a battle till the end.
Definitely agree
Couldn't agree more with ya it's going to be interesting none the less my friend
Trump's rap sheet is thicker than a stack of old phone books.
And it’s all a bullshit ploy by democrats!!
0 convictions.
@@TheBlockerNator Wait for the trials... 😂 🤣 😂
If Trump’s lawyers have their way you could be waiting an awful long time!
lol....yeahhhh....but its a fake rap sheet...fake as fake Russia collusion.
Trump 24
Trump 2024 for the win hopefully he can keep up the lead 🇺🇸👍
I think Biden's best shot at winning in 2024 is to hang on to the rustbelt. Trump isn't pulling as strongly here compared to the southern swing states, and if Biden manages to hold on to Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin he can get to 270 electoral votes.
I also think he is very likely to win nevada, despite what this map says
Joe Biden is hated in WI that I can promise you!! We will flip red. And MICHIGAN will flip red as well.
It all just depends really as I could see Nevada Pennsylvania Michigan and Wisconsin going either way but I see Nevada going repub Michigan repub Wisconsin demo and Pennsylvania repub just how I see it you entitled to your opinions
Stadiums are chanting FJB and some of them are chanting Trump's name
Hell no I know trump is not being president 😂😂😂😂
FJB LGB 2024
FDT 2024
I feel like Nevada, Arizona and Georgia will probably swing for Biden maybe but I don’t know 😅
yea if illegals vote
TRUMP2024 ❤❤❤❤
Well educated? I have a graduate degree. I vote Republican.
European Americans
Think you've got Nevada wrong.
Trump Stinks!
That's why I am voting for him 😃
this is made by a biden supporter lol
Why not VA?? Could Trump flip it.....
You went off-rail in last 2 mins. Thumbs down.
People better wake up and vote for Donald J Trump were president and get Joe Biden the hell out of the White House he is destroying our country Trump 2024
TRUMP GOING TO JAIL😂 But cant blame you for keeping hope alive
Keep dreaming you’ll be crying like a baby if he wins
@@Justin03939 DREAMING??? LOL..even you just said.. 'IF' HE WINS. lol. ITS OBLIVIOUS YOUR ALL POWERFUL LEADER SCARED OF PRISON. AND.. HE GOT BEAT BY A GUY HE CALLS SLEEP JOE. And if he so popular how was it that enough of you idiots couldn't keep him in office.. even when cheating you had no success you dumbfk lol lol
Can we see some content on the 2024 Republican Primary? According to recent polls in New Hampshire and South Carolina Nikki Haley is getting close to Donald Trump.
I’m not voting for Nikki.
No where close
She's nowhere close because she's a horrible candidate. Trump will win the nomination hands down
@@CommaderJohn Neither am I. She's a female Bush.
Yeah that’s the thing. I really don’t think mid west ppl like trump after the schnanignas he pulled in Jan 6th.
😂😂😂
Biden won't be there
I hope Trump wins again becomes president and does a second term
Our economy is better than before, minimum wage increased, more job opportunities are available now, health care better now, gas prices lower now, stocks market very high every day, President Biden likes everyone, God bless America 🇺🇸
Trump will not be able to run.
NONSENSE
Doo Doo Don won't win, but we the people hope he can get his bowels together and stop💩 himself.
lol...stay petty and bitter libtard. I like it that way.
Kid youre not even old enough to vote stfu😂
You don’t decide elections
Joe Biden is going to lose because of the Economy and Inflation
I still see Biden winning Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona and Georgia. They will all be close for sure, and I think Nevada is the most likely to flip for Trump
Trump will win at least one maybe 2 even if Biden does win. We never have had a repeated map.
2020 was rigged. Trump won all the swing states. What we need is the same voter turnout like 2020. But we will pick up Biden regret and turn them into republican voters.
Trump is ahead in all of these states beyond the margin of error...for the first time ever.
@@dvferyancethe 1788/1789 election and 1792 election say otherwise
@theluffinater9470 as Biden says, read the polls jack, the polls are showing a guaranteed Trump victory, whether by as small as 2 electoral votes or as high as 90
Get rid of the Electoral college, every persons vote must count not the electoral college.
Nah then a President just has to promise incentives to people living in cities with over 1 million people and the rural voters would have absolutely no say ever again