If the 2024 election were held today, would Trump win? | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 12 พ.ย. 2023
- To mark one year out from the 2024 election, Galen tries to make sense of the political environment based on all the data we have with a crew of election data nerds: G. Elliott Morris, ABC News editorial director of data analytics; Ruth Igielnik, editor for news surveys at The New York Times; and Lakshya Jain, partner at the election modeling website Split-Ticket.org.
In recent days, a spate of polls have come out, mostly showing a similar picture: Not only does former President Donald Trump outperform President Joe Biden in the swing states, he leads, on average, in national polls as well. The suggestion being that if the election were today - and Trump and Biden were the nominees - Trump might be favored to not just win the Electoral College, but the national popular vote too.
But there’s a catch, or two. Perhaps most importantly, the election is not today. Also, we got other data last week, from actual elections, showing Democrats performing relatively well. So, one year out, where does that leave us? The crew tries to answer that and later on in the show they also play a game.
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Idk who yall polling??? I'm 53,Never been polled!!
Same
Prolly old white people with landlines. I am an old white woman with a cell phone only, and never been polled either. Nor do I even know anyone that would vote for tRump, so there's that. 🤷♀️
I heard your chances of actually being in a poll is about 1 in 170,000 since the poll sizes are only 1000 to 2000 people.
Did not expect to suddenly see someone I went to Middle School with on the 538 Podcast lol
15:44 The fact that Biden and Trump are highly hated, yet clearly the party nominees, is everything that's wrong with politics. It's time for ranked choice voting, and add non-partisan primaries to that as well.
Ain't gonna happen. Yeah, there was one of those ranked choice thingies in Alaska, but... it's Alaska. 😆
@@brucemacmillan9581 God bless Alaska!! ♥️♥️
@@brucemacmillan9581Alaska Maine and Hawaii have ranked choice statewide. 14 states including California, New York, Illinois, Massachusetts, and Washington allow some level of local elections to use ranked choice voting but don't use it statewide.
The corporate duopoly won’t let it happen. Lockheed Martin needs to keep us spending all our money on their bombs and the rich want their tax cuts.
Non-partisan primaries are likely to end up with Democrats voting for the worst Republican they can find and vice-versa, to try and ensure that their guy wins when it comes to the presidential run-off.
Any pollster unironically saying Trump will win the popular vote should look at their results three times before publishing it
In 3 years under DEMENTIA Biden, the world has been in turmoil at home and abroad. Under Trump, the world was peaceful. That’s your answer.
You don’t think they do?
He didn’t win the popular vote the last two times.
I think they said that in the context of just the polled swing states? Not referring to a countrywide popular vote
@@mgbl2808 Yeah, Biden isn't going to get the highest number of votes for any presidential candidate ever another time. Whereas Trump GAINED votes. *After* showing what an incompetent bully he is.
It’s a lie to equate dislike from Biden to dislike for Trump.
I dislike Biden but I truly hate Trump.
I like Biden, and HATE Trump
I respect Biden and fear Trump.
What is methodology of polls? If landlines are used it will skew to views of senior citizens. How is data collected, it’s never explained in discussions.
EXACTLY! Where are these people living? On planet atomic orange trump?
they use cellphones these days but it still requires people to answer their phones.
When was the last time you answered a call froma phone number you didn't recognized that came to your cell?
They're relying more and more on paying people. You take the poll online through some gig work site or give your number and they call you and then you get like 50 cents. I have doubts that people who are desperate for pocket change are very representative of the electorate if they are even giving truthful answers. People will just click whatever to get through it faster and lie about their demographics to get more work.
Exactly! Intelligent people don’t accept calls from unknown numbers. So they are probably reaching low education, over 60, lonely or living alone.
this is literally revealed in every poll. Go look.
Blaming the president (unilaterally) for inflation really is an indictment of how little the public understands the most basic things about economics and civics.
BUT they can all do algebra. I'm so relieved...... ::sarcasm out my backside::
You don't need to understand economics to realize Biden can't possibly have been responsible for Inflation AROUND THE WORLD.
Like unilaterally blaming the last president for the once in a century unspecified virus of unknown origin? 😂
@@-Down-D-Stairs- First I've heard of anyone blaming him for the virus. Blaming him for how he HANDLED the virus though is different.
@@JohnVanderbeck right on .... Chump's ignorance and incompetence showed through in his handling and misinformation about covid.
I would vote for a ham sandwich over Trump.
I agree, but I'd also vote Trump over Biden.
Explains what’s in the white house
That already happened in 2020
Voters always come home to roost. Expect pretty much the same results as 2020.
Roe v Wade being overturned will make a difference. It will cost tRump.
More and more people will be breaking away from the extremists! We see the shamble in the house we must clean it. They’ve already threatened and kept hostage, our economy and our debt. Because that’s the only way they can push through their extremist agendas that nobody wants.
Yup.
Trump is going to win easily, you can cope all you want but it’s not going to change the fact that your boy is going to get smoked.
Absolutely not
🎶 "when I think about polls..." 🎶
This is so scary...
In a non compulsory voting country how do you factor in that variable for an election 1 year away ?
voter turnout is fairly predictable.
At this point, the main event of my Monday evenings consists of watching the new 538 podcast episode while eating from a tub of Neapolitan ice cream.
I saw title and decided to skip the video, since it has been discussed to death. Then I saw Lakshya Jain post on Twitter he was on this one and I went back and listened to it. He's the most level headed election guy online that I know.
You should have Cohn on.
I personally believe Biden is nearly toast. I don't think he's capable of changing the way he's viewed. He just does not seem strong enough. If he wins it will be in spite of himself.
Yea the problem is the right is extremely motivated to vote for Trump when the left is extremely dissatisfied with Biden so I just don't know if hate for Trump will work this time like it did last time I think the Dems need to dump Biden for someone anyone else
Opinions are like belly buttons, everyone has one. If Biden's record is evidence, he is a highly capable President, particularly in comparison to his predecessor. Why could he not change the way the voters look at him? You do not qualify your meaning of "strength" but I personally see Biden as a very strong leader. Look how he has restored American leadership in the world and how he has united NATO in support of Ukraine. Please share your evidence that Biden is weak.
Let’s define “strength “ is it a loud vulgar mouth? Vengeance? A desire to destroy the country? The meek shall inherit the earth. Not religious but I believe in actions speak louder than words. Biden is getting things done FOR the good of the populace not AGAINST them. If TMFFG is re-elected to office we are in big trouble as a democracy. Be afraid Be very afraid.
He hasn't done anything to make my life better.
I would vote for Biden's German shepard before i would vote for trump.
😎
I want the country to thrive again so I’ll be voting for Trump
@@The_Texan_Americanat what point were you better off in 2016-2020
@@avacadomangobanana2588 Well I’m from Texas so I really enjoyed having a more secure border. Something about thousands of people being poisoned and dying from fentanyl doesn’t sit right with me.
Gas was over a dollar cheaper per gallon food prices weren't through the roof. percentage rates were much lower. We were in no wars at all no one dared to test our nations strength. I could go on an on how much better trumps presidency was compared to this idiot we have now.
Considering how wrong polls are this is a hilarious caption.
I don't think they have been that off. I've only followed the last few elections, but polls have been pretty close to the actual results every time.
This concept that "voters value their party very strongly " is a rejection of reality.
When 40% of registered voters say they are independent, is party affiliation even important?
I still miss the old gang... Micah, Nate, Clare, Harry. Galen is doing an awesome job holding the fort and the podcast is still very informative but a lot of the flair is gone. It feels like the old FiveThirtyEight is gone. 🥺
I have not followed it for a long time. Where is Nate now?
I listened back in 2016 too but Harry hasn't been at 538 since 2018 and Clare since 2021 and Micah about as long. I was sad as well but it's been a couple years and I have grown to like Rakich and the other people on it now.
First, wow never done that before. I have a feeling everyone is going to hate discussing politics by the time of the 2024 election.
I mean everyone hates it now lol imagine this time next year
I don’t hate it at all, Trump 2024! What do y’all want to discuss?
70 y/o veteran here, never been polled. Keeping Trump out of the White House is the only reason I will show up and vote at all. The USA needs moderate/reasonable democrats and republicans to form a new centrist party, and leave the fringe extremists to whither on the vine.
I agree
Why does 538 never provide the statistical data for how many people participated in the poll? For instance, the NYT poll, which I read, polled less than a thousand people. Isn't that sample problematic if not suspect?
Should have asked if they think we should be in the wars as well.
We, the people, must support freedom, not dictatorship. We, the people, must support democracy, not autocracy. Vote 🗳 BLUE for America. Vote 🗳 BLUE to end trumpism. We, the people, can end trumpism forever with our 🗳 votes.
Vote only blue for Democracy? Doesn't sound like you support democracy...
Are you from the group who says vote blue no matter who..???
Vote red to end inflantion stop the border crisis and prevent world war 3
The NYT woman is very annoying in this interview - alls she’s doing is defending her own poll’s results and is not really interested in thinking about them in a critical way.
Compare generic ballot polling this time in 2017 which was something like D+17 with actual votes in 2018.
You should add a section called "Good or Bad Use of Tea Leaves?" to the podcast.
We shall see
No. America spoke in 2020 and said no more Trump. 2024 will be no different. Fed up is fed up.
What a lot of people forget about Trump is that he got nearly 75 million votes back in 2020 despite how many people loathe him. Obama in 2008 only got 69 million votes and that was a historic election. I would not sleep on Trump in 2024 we could very well see an upset like 2016 again. Biden is extremely disliked as is Trump but there is a contingency that worship Trump while no one loves Biden. In 2020 however Biden wasn't loathed the way he is now so I don't know if hatred for Trump will be enough to overcome love for Trump this time. It'll be close on a state by state level for sure.
You're missing that the population increased between 2020 and 2008
I love Biden, and what does that have to do with anything. Unless you are in the Trump cult, you are going to be highly motivated to keep him out of office. Women will lead the way as they did in 2020, and 2022, and recently in Virginia and the abortion vote in Ohio. The GOP is also a mile-high tire fire and has given its power base to extremists like Mike Johnson. This is going to be political suicide in 2024.
Polls that only look at registered voters in equal numbers between Democrats and Republicans are not useful. They need to include likely voters and in ratios that are native to the state.
I would vote blue from the great state of Ohio.. Trump for prison in 2024.. The main issue I will be voting blue is to stop the right wing supreme Court..
dude why do you have 2 periods for every sentence
youve irked me greatly
100 PERCENT!!
which city in ohio are you from
Trump is not going to prison. He will just run the country from the Orange House in Florida.
Keep crying, libs. Your tears nourish me.
Ohio is a red state.
Never vote a split ticket, or ever vote for Trump. Ever! Vote Blue!
Nah, RFK for sure.
I would be interested in hearing what this group thinks about the impact of a possible No Labels candidate. Seems it could be significant but in which direction.
HUGE For splitticket, W
not to brag but I crushed it on almost every question in the game at the end (closer than both players), just got lucky I guess
Polls are meaningless if we aren't told how they are conducted, and what exact questions are asked, and of whom.
Why do we continue to talk about the Presidential election as a national election, every discussion should be about the swing States, national polling should be discussed as a trivia thing that has no meaning at all in the current situation.
I have to think/hope that the main reason many would vote for Trump right now is that they don’t know why they shouldn’t. They haven’t told, and we must educate them! Mainstream media cannot let Fox/OAN/etc. go uncountered!
Well u guys lost all credibility with me when yall bizarrely insisted that Trump was a Russian agent serving Putin for three years yall all ranted about this absurd idea, so I'll pass on your Trump info.
So many people don't even pay attention to the election till around Labor day! People are busy with their lives. 😅
How about an analysis of when the Republican party was the third party? When they trounced the Whig party
I hypothesise that many Latinos in the United States are following the same path the Irish, Italians, and Slavs took earlier: when they first arrived they were separated into separate racial categories, and as the decades passed they become more and more white. Many are physically indistinguishable from white folks, especially those of Mediterranean heritage, and culturally and socially their differences with general American culture are arguably less than, say, someone who comes from Russia. It takes time, but they're integrating into the white population, and as they do so their voting patterns are shifting to be more similar to those of the white population.
I could easily be wrong though. I'm not American and don't live in America, so it is inevitable that I'm missing on-the-ground realities.
Not a bad hypothesis
Became white you say ? I'm Irish...you could go snowblind looking at us !
This is definitely happening
Polls are just insane this far out. It’s just something to yap about
YES!!!!❤
Four Whites! Guess 2020's really over
538 talking about polling? Oh really? Lmao.
God I hope so
Looking for Nate...I miss him
All the way with RFK in '24.
He's not winning so then your vote would be useless
We’re all the usual 538 people let go.?
This from 538, who predicted Hillary would win… 🙄
NO !
Incredible that these are the best candidates america has to offer
For the Democrats, Biden is the equivalent of a football team with the ball on the 1 yard line and choosing to run. Sure it will be a train wreck that will barely move forward but in spite of the polling it feels like a safe bet to get into the end zone, whereas nominating someone else feels like trying a pass and risk ending up like the Seahawks a while back.
Yes, I'm from Seattle. No, I'm not over that.
Well, Trump is. I’m not sure why Democrats support Biden, and I’m not convinced that Democrats know why they support Biden.
@@TrentSLucas do you mean Trump is a good candidate?
@@Jack33333 yes, I want Trump to be President of our great nation again.
@@TrentSLucas Don't know what great nation your talking about. Failed state decaying and imploding on itself. Get a foreign work visa and get out while you still can
Vote blue!
Vote red if you vote blue at this point your sped on all levels
IF Trump wins the popular vote, we deserve the nightmare the next four years would be.
Like that would be more of a nightmare than what we are currently dealing with?
Compare 2016 until the pandemic kit and then compare the peace in the world and the Booming American economy with what’s going on right now we’re 73% of Americans say we are headed in the wrong direction?
@@kingorange7739 According to Trump's manifesto, yes.
@@kingorange7739 Is this a rhetorical question or are you living under a rock?
@kingorange7739 you're probably one of those "Hitler did alot of good things" type of guys but if you aren't then project 2025 just might change your mind about Trump
Let’s keep praying he follows in his sister’s footsteps ASAP.
Rude...crude. mean
Speaking of Arizona are you talking about Latinos or did you mean Hispanics?
When will Democrats realize that the "hold your nose and vote" strategy is going to lose because we're tired of always being forced to vote for their hand-picked corporate candidate.
Don't hear you clearly discussing the stay-at-home vote. Are Trump or Biden voters more likely to stay home? Manchin is not a Democrat! Perhaps in his own State he can pretend to take Democratic votes but not the rest.
Rfk Jr 2024!
End the two party duopoly
50 state RFK SWEEP!
NO. NOT A CHANCE.
TRUMP 2024!!!! Time to take the gloves off!
😅. No
Ruth says "we aren't in any wars" meanwhile we fund a 60 year genocide that has just come to climax.
If you want to be taken seriously stop throwing around that word.
If the treatment of refugees in Gaza is a genocide, why has the population tripled since 1967?
I’m sorry you guys got nothing. 😢
I know the Nikki Haley dream died before it was born, but I will still hold out hope.
Haley is a fake establishment politician.
No he is crazy
No
48:47
Hi I myself believe there’s no way that Trump will win the popular vote! Even my Republican friends would never vote for him again. And the people who voted him out in 2020 that recasting their vote. for somebody who just called me a Vermant.
It depends on who votes. I doubt Trump would win a popular vote. But if 95% of Trump supporters vote and only 60% of people who don't like Trump vote he could still win the popular vote.
Regarding Ruth's discussion of callbacks and their surprising results (but also other points in this podcast): this just goes to show how badly informed Americans are - both about international issues, that is a well known problem, but also about their personal history and financial situation.
Michigan Muslims hate Jim Crow Joe. #votebluenomatterwho is cult-speak. #oneanddone
48:47 80
I’m not gonna watch. The problem is the title combined with the length of the video. Doesn’t take an hour to answer that question if you’re you guys
When I think about you, 4:53 Ruth. 😎😉🔥💃
Are y'all gonna get to policy at all? Y'all are talking like Trump's a normal candidate.
Trump in 2024 is going to hold all the states plus Maine 2 that he won in 2020. In addition, he almost certainly will flip Georgia and am predicting Trump will do likewise in Arizona and Nevada. That would put him at exactly 268 electoral college votes. Thus Biden would have to run the table on Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Virginia, New Hampshire, Maine at-large, Nebraska 2 (Trump would win a tie in the House), etc to win. That's a tall order for Biden, and Trump has to be viewed as the favorite.
Vivek 24
I feel like Trump would win the popular vote but lose the electoral college barely
Nothing
45 you couldn't beat George McGovern and he has been dead for at least ten years.
He will not be in the ballot so NO!
Older voters and white because rural watches FOX NEWS!!!
Donald paid for polls for him in 2016 according to his former lawyer Michael Cohen
split ticket is cute and sexy
Last weeks election results tell all. Most Americans are sick of maga and want trump to disappear.
While I agree a lot of Americans are sick of Maga I wouldn't conflate elections in a deep blue state like Virginia and single issue votes with the 2024 election I really believe it's anyone's game which is scary af
yep
Bunch of ramblers
Are you guys not pricing in Trump s latest Hitler quotes when he talks about people as vermin to be eradicated?
Its hard for me to not just skip this election in my mind. Its a useless re-play of 2020. But in 2028? So many new Gen Z voters. So many of the new migrants possibly able to vote as well. Biden and Trump will most likely not be on the ballot finally. It's going to be wild and competitive (hopefully).
If Trump wins, who knows if you can even vote in 2028 lol
@@jimmyz2684 might not even be possible with Biden winning if GOP controls everything else and the supreme court being what it is.
You can't sit out this election. It's America or Trump... if Trump wins there won't be a 2028 election.
How bizarre your excited a bunch of now teenagers and a group of people not even from America been here a very short time and you are excited that these 2 groups will pick the next President.
😂😅😮🎉
The new guest to the podcast is hot 🥵
While it may be too far out for polls to be predictive, the polls today certainly indicate a lack of interest in a second Biden term. Sure he could climb out of it, but I’ll wager he can barely climb out of bed in the morning.
Yeah, but that also means the bar for Biden in the campaign is very low. If he turns up to loads of events next year and looks fine at them, that will positively surprise a lot of the people who think he is incapable of doing that.
@@jmorrison230582 I think it more than that. He’s status quo, and I’d choose him over the wrong kind of change any day, but we need fresh thinking and fundamental progress. I’d like to see what Newsom and Dean Phillips bring to the party.
@@jmorrison230582 yeah but he cant run around and look fine, thats the Issue.
@@nox5555 honestly, Trump is starting to look just as senile, and considering he's only 3 years younger the whole "Sleepy Joe" attack of him being old probably won't work as well in 2024
@@secretname4190 in this case, the status quo literally means keeping our democracy. I’m voting! I’m going to be a poll workers and I’ve volunteered for one of the campaigns. You may not know what autocracy means but I do. It’s a nightmare.
Nikki haley 2024!
Wow these little kids know everything about the world
trumpty dumpty be lucky to make it to next November. He should already be in jail for threats against the courts and witnesses
He already won twice in a row so I don't see why he wouldn't win again
He? Trump lost the 2020 election. Period.
The woman’s constant giggling is very annoying!
The Times did a good job in their polling.
Absolutely not!!! Better educate yourself on what Biden has done.
I have to wonder how Trump's more explicit fascist rhetoric would affect your results.
Define facism for me
@Ned_Diggers I know right?
He would and he will next year unfortunately
It is interesting that anyone would think a Biden Economy is different from a Democrat Economy. Why would anyone think any other Democrat would do better with the Economy than Biden?