What Milankovitch Cycles Will Do To Earth
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 14 ธ.ค. 2022
- Earth's orbit is constantly evolving through Milankovitch Cycles. Try Speakly for free for 7 days, and get a 60% discount if you join the annual subscription: speakly.app.link/Speakly
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#milankovitchcycles #astrum #iceage
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I don't doubt the human role in climate change. But I think people forget just how much the earth's climate changes on it's own.
That is my point. Well said.
The problem is that it's changing on the order of a few hundred years instead of the usual several thousand to hundred thousand years' scale.
that's not the point
what we are experiencing now is nothing normal
don't you think climate scientist know about the climate history? these are the people that showed us earlier climate changes in the first place
we must fight against the oil industries, each additional day we burn fossil fuels makes our future just more apocalyptic
@@robwarrior2120 I agree. I just think there are many people who believe that the world's climate would stay the same essentially forever, if it weren't for the humans. Many think that climate change is caused solely by humans. When the truth is climate changes on it's own. Humans just play a role in it.
People may forget, but scientists are well aware and incorporate that into the data, and it still shows undeniable human caused climate change
Milankovic is one of the greatest minds in human history. Because this part of science is not as "glamurous" he is less known and less apreciated when compared to other great minds that have thrived in their respective fields of science.
Thank you for this video.
Milankovich cycles were one of the first things we were introduced to in my geology degree. Its the driver of abnormal weather patterns and may be read in sedimentary rock formation environments. It is the most basic time references on earth and are 100% reliable.
You should have started with plate tectonics because location of the plates and continents are just as important or more important.
The present is the key to the past.
Well, reliable until the last few decades when something seems to have broken the cycles that have been steady for nearly 1 million years.
Until recently when our climate has seen quick movement opposite what the Milankovich cycles.
Cyclothems, as they have been called, are completely synchronized to these cycles according to most studies I have seen. Hundreds of recurrences of the sea transgressing and regressing central North America at a semi predictable rate
sure, son :D
The Milankovitch "trifecta" for chilly northern summers:
1. Maximum eccentricity in the orbit (currently in a medium phase)
2. Aphelion during northern summer (currently very favorable for ice age onset!)
3. Minimum tilt of axis (currently medium)
Line up all three of these, and the summer sun will be as far away as possible and as low in the sky as possible. That allows glaciation over Canada & Siberia to really take off!
Could this happen in our lifetime?
@@sm3675 Nope.
Tell that to Forrest Gore.
@@sm3675These cycles change on the order on 10,000s of year's.
the cycle will go warm first then back cold in a few thousand years, it will break the normal cold cycle that should be starting. how circular earth orbit is also affects the warming and our orbit is going to be more circular and better for warming
This is the kind of stuff that almost never gets taught in schools and needs to be talked about more.
As if we don`t have enough indoctrination already?
@@D70340 What about this is indoctrination?
It undermines that anthropogenic warming belief system that currently holds sway in academia.
But don't you know this is all OUR fault LMFAO
@@fullbeard This refutes the Climate change money grab that is being pushed by the big big money to destroy the middle class and create the perfect top - down slave system the elites have been pushing for the last 200 years !
Thanks for mentioning Milutin Milanković, was an amazing scientist and a genius. Amazing testimonies about his life and work are still alive. Cheers!
He’s clearly less known than Novak Djokovic😊.
@@levvernik2590 Just shows how little the general majority of mankind has progressed in brain capacity.
@@levvernik2590 today scientist and other amazing people are in a shadow of athletes and politicians lol
@@lilly9399 Tesla was a great physicist, but not the GOAT. Novak is about to be the GOAT in tennis.
@@lilly9399 Nikola Tesla was not Serbian!!!! He has nothing to do with them!
This may be one of many reasons why we haven't seen interstellar civilizations yet; not only the small chance of developing life, but also the small chance of a planet being temperately stable long enough to do much. Even if life were common, the kind of temperate stability we enjoy could be exceedingly rare on large timescales.
I think they simply know better than to get involved in our business. We watch "lower" beings and if we do interfere, we do so without their awareness. Humbling thoughts.
Or .. they're not interested in the ghetto planets
Not really. Once formed, civilization is generally quite resistant to climate change. We are just probably the first
I think this is likely part of the answer to the Fermi paradox. If other intelligent life in the universe is anything like us then they are way to arrogant. We assume conquering the stars is the obvious next step for us. But we have never stopped and will never stop being at the mercy of Mother Nature. We could mess up our climate and cause our own extinction, or Mother Nature could just end us all by herself at any time. All of the universe is practically designed to kill life and habitable planets are no exception just because life can thrive on parts of them temporarily.
Are you trying to suggest that the earth's climate has always been favourable to supporting life forms?
In Norse mythology, the Fimbul winter was a sign that Ragnarök was relentlessly approaching. The Fimbul winter was said to be a winter that lasted three years without any summer, thus heralding Ragnarök, the end of the world.
Year 536 was as close we have come in documented times.
I believ that Ragnarök was the Norse Flood myth.
Yeah basically the norske extinction myth
@@Uncle_pepsi the *NORSE* extinction myth
The Mojave Desert in California was once a wet and watery paradise with lakes, rivers, giant dire wolves and flamingos. The first humans in the Mojave region even experienced the large bodies of water and rivers. Paleolithic records reveal they had boats that traversed the massive lakes.
There are glyphs drawn into the rocks, many meters above the Salton Sea of ships with sails... much like early Spanish Exploration which were lost - never returned. The local Indigenous tribes have preserved these area. The rocks also show calcium life forms on the surrounding rocks like those of barnacles and basic sea life.
Did you see the pics of the desert turned green in Saudi Arabia? Instead of hills of sand it was all green.
@@nobodymatters3294 Pics? Nope. Got some?
Earth has been through enormous changes over millions of years. The last 800,000 years have been very stable with similar cyclical glaciations... until the current anthropogenic global warming which is extreme and contrary to all cyclical trends.
Might want to look into that purported anthropogenic warming it correlates highly with globalized central authority.
I've been a fan of Milankovitch since I was in college. The dude is up there with Copernicus with what he did for science.
And contributed greatly to the aspirin company's income as well, when one reviews the math. ;)
May want to check out the Tychos Model before praising Copernicus too much. I don't think we fully understand the movement of our solar system, but I fully believe the earth has many different cycles that affect our climate and tranquility.
he's also on our 2000 dinar bill, and Tesla is on the 100 dinar bill! Some of the biggest scientists of history, both Serbs.
@@ignjatmarinkovic7884 -- those guys were wicked smaaart!
-- (say with Boston accent!)
@@sv_seveniron yep, totally no clue. That's why we never had a probe fly by Pluto.
Oh wait, we did!
So impressed by the jaw dropping brainy'ness of those folk who worked all this out, wow! What an informative, balanced and well researched piece, such a pleasure to watch - thank you.
Except...Big 🚩here with sun distance being responsible for change in temperature. It's nothing to do with distance. At 93 million miles with the distance varying a couple of thousand miles, the heat change would be hard to measure and way less than 1 degree. It has everything to do with the angle of the to the sun's rays. This is seen easily by everyone outside the tropic of Cancer and Capricorn. As the sun drops in the sky, much more area receives the same amount of radiated heat from the sun.
Until in some areas, it disappears completely.
I tried to explain this to my grade 10 biology teacher and got an E. The next semester, a substitute physics teacher corrected him, and he changed it to an A.
I don't think this guy made it past grade 10 physics.
Simply Not Correct, Suns distance has lot to do with change in temperature and it Change Far more than "distance varying a couple of thousand miles" In Fact the distance varying 5 million kms (Minimum 147,1 Mill Kms and Maximum 152,1 Mill Kms), so you are about 1000-2000 Times wrong. Planets that are Father away from the Sun ? gets less Sun rays and energi and is Colder@@jamierose4088
Wow, this was a great video. I confess I knew less than 20% of the information in here, so this was a wonderful (and well produced) explanation. Great graphics.
Remember, the tilt of the Earth determines how many hours of direct, concentrated sunlight you receive. That is what separates summer from winter, not the tiny degree of change in how close or far you are from the same. It is the angle of incoming sunlight that matters.
Nope.
Not exactly but under stand when the earth wobbles it also effects the magnetic fields that protect the planet from solar radiation. An area left uncovered by this field will suffer and major impacts will occur
Kobalt is correct. The temperature difference is derived from how concentrated the sun's energy is to the surface. I.e the more perpendicular the surface is to the sun, then more heat energy per meter sq.
Seasons have nothing to do with being closer to the sun. That extra closeness to the sun is irrelevant in the grand scheme....
@@John...44... Thank you. Though we should also add that the length of the day also impacts seasonal temperatures
Solar energy is mitigated by the electromagnetic layered fields that surround earth. If there is a distortion in this field, the amount of solar radiation will vary dramatically. As well, a loosening of the magnetic field leads to wavy jet streams, which obviously affect weather.
The positions of planets can certainly have an effect on Earth's magnetic field.
The Svensmark "Cloud Mystery" research shows that when there is a weakened magnetic field around earth, cosmic radiation leads to increased cloud condensation nuclei, which when combined with evaporated water, leads to increased rainfall. This has been cross examined all over the planet. Increased cosmic rays to the surface is very tightly correlated with increased planetary rainfall
Excellent description. One other thing that makes things more complicated is the fact that the output of the sun is not constant. From what I have read the sun’s output can vary by as much as 11% on a cyclical basis. This further complicates the climate.
Go see, videos series of suspicious observers on TH-cam
We are too close to it for making it a major factor.
Solar forcing is considered low compared to greenhouse gases forcing. It has a 11 years cycle with no variations in infrared and high variation in UV.
the UV variations has impact with ozone and may induce decadal variations of climate
It's important to note that the larger ocean area in the southern hemisphere more than offsets the effects of summer perihelion/winter aphelion down there. More ocean = less extreme seasons.
It also means that the climate of the southern hemisphere cannot make or break ice ages. There are no large landmasses in the middle to subarctic southern latitudes, unlike North America and Eurasia in the north. You need subarctic land surface to support increasing snow cover.
Well said . The bigger problem though is why in the last 10 million years the milankovitch cycles only started producing ice age 2.4 million years ago
Exactly. At most you’d get a humongous glacier and alpine permafrost in the mountains of Tasmania and New Zealand’s South Island, where the whole mountain range is frozen not just in June, July and August but year-round. But Chile would definitely be affected, and the resulting northward advancement of Argentina’s and South Brazil’s temperate zones would sap moisture from the Amazon.
Snowline in the southern hemisphere is also more stable, you can have glaciers in mountains at lower elevations, since there's not much disturbance once you reach 0° C (32 ° F) isotherm. It is the same reason why Siberia is green and forested despite having colder winters than Greenland, greenland is cold year around while Siberia gets as cold as Antarctica in winter but fairly warm in summer.
@@Marvin-dg8vj it’s not a problem it’s just the way things played out. Things change and then they have a period of more predictability for awhile, we’re lucky we’re here nor but industry is messing things up.
Thank you for this video. It was very interesting! :)
The "distance from the sun" from Greenland to Sahara is so tiny it does not affect the energy in the rays. In the north the rays are spread out and will have less warming effect. And if the rays comes in at an angle, in the north the rays have to pass through a longer distance of the atmosphere before it reach the earth's surface, and then reducing the energy in the rays.
I think it's about the land mass distribution as well. There's more land mass in the northern hemisphere. When the North hemisphere is facing the sun the land heats up the earth more. When the southern hemisphere is facing the sun more, the earth is cooler because its harder to heat the water.
@@RideBikes_Walkplaces Not quite. Water absorbs more sunlight than land. If the Northern Hemisphere had more water, the Earth would be warmer. Overall, the Earth having continents has a cooling effect.
@@haroldnowak2042 I've just been looking it up. So many conflicting articles! Some say the land absorbes more solar radiation, others not. 🤔 I'm sure I watched a documentary years ago which talked about land mass distribution as being a factor to this affect. Maybe its to do with ice forming on the land and reflecting the salary radiation. 🤔
@@haroldnowak2042 The north and south Pacific ocean has more area than all of the worlds land masses combined.
One good reason to not deploy on a Navy ship out of San Diego.
Crossing the line near the 00 lat and 00 long point is not bad.
Actually meets the comfort zone that humans were designed for.
@@RideBikes_Walkplaces Pythagorean theorem just may also have a pronounce effect. It is just math?
I've watched all your videos and while this one addresses what might seems to be the most "basic" of topics, it ended up being one of the most interesting! I was only aware of about half the cycles you reviewed. Incredible channel you have going here, thanks!
You are probably that guy that yells at the dude in his big pickup truck, all the while driving a prius or some other hybrid/ev.
I never saw a Prius pass a pickup truck, due to the former’s temperate behavior.
Again you're not talking about the same topic
I’m on same page. Life changing knowledge here!!!
@@Marin3r101 What irrelevant nonsense are you rambling on about?
The geologic arrangment of earths land and seas also play a massive part in this. Before Australia separated from Antarctica the Southern Ocean did not have Antarctic Convergence. This flow has worked to stabilize weather patterns in the southern hemisphere. Think of the effects the Rocky Mountains have on air currents, thus long term weather patterns. There are so many factors on such long time scales that humanity will likely never figure out how it works.
Likewise, I have read that if Panama was removed from the map and an equatorial ocean current was allowed to be established then a lot of weather patterns would stabilize in the northern and southern hemispheres.
@@CharlesHuse what about the channel?
@@Kenshiroit it doesn't connect the two oceans directly. There's segments to it that are separated by massive dams
Plus it's just too small overall
Yes the oxygenation of earth also played a huge role in the particular ice age that followed.
This is certainly true. However, strong disturbing influences have always occurred and yet it was possible to identify patterns and regularities in the arrival of ice ages and interglacials. It is clear from this that the power of these changes is evidently greater than the power of these disturbing influences. And yes humanity as a whole has a huge impact on the earth. But if I had to bet on who is more powerful, humanity would not be among my favorites.
This is my favorite video of all-time explaining the Milankovitch Cycles. Really amazing job.
Really interesting and well out together content. Congrats 👏
Of course, the effect Milankovitch cycles will differ depending where you are on the planet. In ten thousand years, the Sahara Desert may become a temperate landscape with massive lakes, rivers and forests again.
Omg that would be amazing
Actually, it *will* be.
It's been discovered that that too is one of the world's cycles.
At the end of the last Ice Age, the Sahara was a lush grassland. Fossil evidence shows that it has been through that cycle several times through prehistory.
@@teabearchurchill5600 that’s so true that
We could make it happen in five years. We just have to doit.
@@teabearchurchill5600 It's called the 'Sahara Pump Theory', in case anyone else is interested.
@2:36 The change in season or the difference between equatorial and polar weather is not related to distance from the sun here, it is related to the tilt at that location. More watts per square meter are received at any given location while the sun is directly overhead rather then off to an angle.
And, shorter days, so less exposure.
At winter in the UK the earth is at its closest to the sun. Looking out of my window it’s -5°.
The tilt and our relationship with the moon and orbit of the sun coupled with a spinning planet of huge swathes of land and water.
Fascinatingly complex, and not ‘climate change’ hysteria that dopey communist girl wants to indoctrinate into the young
Yeah, a few hundred/thousands km of distance do not make that much of a difference. Angle does all the difference:)
That and the hours of daylight are longer in the summer.
@@ericpmoss Yes, that too, but even in the summer the equatorial regions will be getting much more intense sunlight then polar areas.
Winter missed me in my part of Canada totally. We had one -30 day and not much snow. It’s mid February it should be -10c and below but it’s been above plus 5 all week.
The other thing that people often overlook is that the sun's energy output is not constant. A small variation can have a huge impact on climate.
Sun activity is not higher than usual. If at all it's lower. Still it's getting warmer. FAST.
@@Hubwood
"Sun activity is not higher than usual. If at all it's lower. Still it's getting warmer. FAST."
That is what they say. The Earth is warming at an unprecedented rate never seen before in the history of the climate. Even the undisputed experts on everything climate, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) stated in its AR5 Synthesis Report on climate change in 2014: “Many of the observed changes since the 1950s are unprecedented over decades to millennia.”
From the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University web site (2003).
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University
The Earth Institute at Columbia University
Open quote.
Abrupt Climate Change
Around 15,000 years ago, the Earth started warming abruptly after ~ 100,000 years of an "ice age"; this is known as a glacial termination. The large ice sheets, which covered significant parts of North America and Europe, began melting as a result. A climatic optimum known as the "Bölling-Allerød" was reached shortly thereafter, around 14,700 before present. However, starting at about 12,800 BP, the Earth returned very quickly into near glacial conditions (i.e. cold, dry and windy), and stayed there for about 1,200 years: this is known as the Younger Dryas (YD), since it is the most recent interval where a plant characteristic of cold climates, Dryas Octopetala, was found in Scandinavia.
The most spectacular aspect of the YD is that it ended extremely abruptly (around 11,600 years ago), and although the date cannot be known exactly, it is estimated from the annually-banded Greenland ice-core that the ANNUAL-MEAN TEMPERATURE INCREASED BY AS MUCH AS 10°C IN 10 YEARS (emphasis added).
Close quote.
I wonder how humans dumping CO2 caused such a rapid climate change 11,600 years ago. Maybe humans are so powerful they found a way to send our CO2 back through time into the past since they are claiming that the only reason that the climate changes is because humans cause the change.
Perhaps you can explain how humans burning fossil fuels caused those two sudden warming events thousands of years ago.
@@Hubwood correct.
In 100,000,000 years, it's predicted to increase to a level that will literally scorch the Earth. Pretty scary when you think about it.
But I guess that's just another reason to try to keep things as cool as possible.
@@VVayVVard
being scared of something that will happen in 100 million years is just hilarious 😂
there are few additional factors, like solar cycle, cycle related to jupiter, saturn orbit, etc.... including cycle related to rotation of sun around milky way core
The whole global warming, climate change thing is about money, control and power and ensuring you have none.
The Norse Eddas tell the story of Fibulwinter; a winter lasting for three years and preceding Ragnorak. It is possible that this is a remnant of tales of the Younger Dryas Event. It's also possible that the death of Baldur because of a mistletoe dart given to Hodr by Loki could also be dated to when mistletoe and the oaks they rely on returned to the northern regions, about 9000 years ago.
The Eddas we are familiar with today were transcribed by Snorri Sturluson in 13th century Iceland. The early inhabitants of Iceland were familiar with long, severe winters, often influenced by volcanic erruptions. Norse countries were uninhabited 9-12,000 years ago as they were covered in ice, and the people who now live there would have been in Eurasia alongside ancestors of other fair skinned Europeans.
Another possible explanation for the Fimbulwinter is from when a volcanic eruption in Indonesia in 536AD caused winter to last for several years in Scandinavia. From archeological records you can see villages relocating to higher ground and a massive decrease in population
Never doubt ye Olde Runes and Rymes, For they be right, most of the time.
To me ragnarok is a depiction of a younger dryas impact. Fenrir, a wolf with a fiery mouth that spans from the ground to the sky? Fire giants coming from the sky? Winter that precedes it? And many more details that stick out as soon as u look at it. The way Norse mythology explains the frost giants (for example, Ymir being this massive frost giant that spans the world and out of his body smaller giants break away) is to me a clear depiction of an late ice age world
It is referring to the Younger Dryas era! The Anunnaki have recorded this! When they first arrived here earth was mostly a frozen planet.
If to the so beautifully explained Milancovitch cycles we would add the latest studies of sun's cycles, it's temperature fluctuation and many other recent observations of its behaviour we could develop a more complete understanding of all the parameters involved in climate behaviour. Thanks for the very good presentation
There is no " if " about it. Scientists do exactly that. These natural cycles are understood well enough that we know for certain that this episode of warming is not one of them. It is the unnatural increase of CO2 to 150% it's pre-industrial levels.
Amazing video, please make more videos about the planet!
All Hail, Milutin Milankovic! He completed all the calculations, accurately, without the aid of a calculator or computer and he was right!
Why do people write Milankovitch tho? I know hes Serbian.
Also, yes the S hemisphere is in phase with being closer to the sun in their summer and further away in winter but they don't have more extreme seasons because there is much less land mass and more water which moderates their seasons.
Fair point 👍
Plus the latitude explanation given at the start is very basic. The UK and North Western parts of Europe are on the same latitude as Canada but have much milder Winters due to the gulf stream. The major Oceans are massive players in the distribution of heat and cold, Fresh water melt from glaciers spilling in the the sea is another one to.
Land mass both north and southern hemisphere is equal
Also the icy polar eye is blocked almost completely and no freezing air breaks out north, like in the northern hemisphere the polar air is doing.
@@mattking9974 Thought Ice mass in the North is growing Russia is building another ice breaker; check out Orca 1 twin turbo Nuclear powered ship bright red intense. Tony Hellar shows ice mass charts.
Alex, you must be the best, most persuasive internet pitchman I have ever heard. Now, I'm referring to your commercial, not the Astrum content, which is, of course, even better.
These videos are so therapeutics as they are educational. Thr space ambient music and the soft spoken British accent narration. I feel reborn again.
Seasons are theoretically more extreme in the Southern Hemisphere because of the amplification of the sun's rays in summer by closest approach to the sun, and their diminishment in winter by being further away. However, the Southern Hemisphere as a much lower land-to-ocean ratio than the Northern Hemisphere, so the greater amount of water buffers the theoretically more extreme seasons.
We are beginning the opposite process.
Summer has just started down here, was 27 degrees Celsius today, great for swimming in the lake.
@@pl1068 About ten years ago I knew a guy who went to Chile to ski. He went during our North American winter. When he got there, he said all the ski slopes were closed because it was hotter than blazes, and this was proof of global warming. He didn't know the seasons are reversed in the Southern Hemisphere. True story.
@@alansewell7810 😅
That's now, that is also cylcal.
I always knew about precession, etc, but never have I seen it all laid out so clearly, what it's actual effects are, and all that. Did the math and everything. Seems almost too simply explained.
Well, it is almost too simply explained, but since you did the math, you also remember your aspirin budget while doing that math. ;)
What overloads many is albedo, which is counterintuitive in its effects on climate for most. Well, that and how slow radiative cooling into space actually is. Indeed, most people don't comprehend even partially how a thermos works.
People tend to trust their own daily experiences, it takes a lot of education to allow one to trust the math.
Awesome video, it actually explains what I wanted to know.
6:56 damn that’s so crazy, I never had any idea and can hardly imagine the northern hemisphere having summer in January that’s so weird to think about
The main reason we have seasons is not caused by distance from the sun, it is caused by a difference in light density. In summer, the tilt causes the respective hemisphere to receive more light energy and thus heat, per unit area than it does in winter.
"angle of insulation"
But you wouldn't be siuggesting that the intensity of sunlight reaching unit area is unrelated to distance Sun to earth surely ?
True including the earth's rotation.
How did an educational channel get something so incredibly basic so wrong? Especially one focused on astronomy, jesus.
@@phobics9498 He didn't get it wrong. 1:56 is where he talks about how the tilt of the earth causes seasons.
2:42 It's not about closeness to the sun, it's about the angle at which the rays hit the area. At 90° the cross section of radiation that hits the ground is equal to the area that it shines on. As the angle decreases, the cross section reduces with the cosine. Meaning that at angles close to 90° there is not a lot of variation, but the farther away from 90° you go, the larger the influence becomes.
7:00 As the calendar is fixed with the spring point, winter in the north in 13'000 will still be in January. We will have shifted the calendar accordingly.
Yeah, he overused the same term, "closeness", and conflated angle towards the sun with distance from the sun.
Let's shift Earth & Venus positions or Earth & Pluto, distance does have a effect aside from rays of light, from minimal to more than marginal. OP is speaking relative to the average datasets and current understanding & filtering it for common layman/laywoman to understand. Situational awareness also includes speech and it's context.
@@Theeoldmann Sorry, no. The differing solar input depending on latitude has NOTHING to do with distance, and EVERYTHING with angle. Referring to distance in this context is just wrong. If we allow this, the next question is why excentricity of the earths orbit allows for seasons in the northern hemisphere to be when they are, because distance from the sun would imply the reverse.
@@HotelPapa100 know so much, but understanding little... Good for you
@@HotelPapa100 Of course you are correct. The “closeness” to the sun changes far less than the diameter of the earth based on tilt. It would be warmer during summer in the northern hemisphere of an earth-like planet orbiting slightly further from the sun, than a similar planet in the southern hemisphere orbiting slightly closer to the sun. In this scenario, “closeness” is less important than angle (as you identified).
Only just found this channel well done It's fantastic
Great explanation on Milankovitch cycles , thank you very much for the video!
This is by far the most informative and easily understable video about the earth and its orbit I have ever seen. Fantastic effort!!
totally agree!
Check out Suspicious Observers.
Yes, I found things that in the Video and the comments I had been pondering about for years
Thank you.
This is the best explanation of Milankovitch Cycles I've seen in my lifetime.
Wow. Mine blown. Thank you for this very informative clear explanation. It is so helpful.
Just to be clear, it's not Tromso's "high altitude" (2:17) that makes it cold and dark. It is its high latitude.
Thank you! After learning that we're closest to the sun in January, I've often wondered if that made Southern Hemisphere summers a little hotter than a Northern Hemisphere summer. I'm glad to see you touch on that! I've never come across it mentioned elsewhere before. 🙂
It’s the tilt of the earth and I’m sure you came across this subject in school if you paid attention
@@SticksAndStoners007 Omg, you really need to read that again a few times
@@Pao234_ omg you really need to calm down professor
A lot of radiation is reflected by Antarctica and a lot more hits the Southern Ocean.
Used to teach it in school. learned that in the 4th or 5th grade. But that was a long time ago. They don't teach things like that because ignorance on the subject allows them to dictate the climate change information. Which is by far the greatest transfer of wealth in the history of mankind.
This was a fantastic, if not the best explained I have ever seen on Milankovitch cycles. Kudos.
The tilt causing parts of the planet to be “closer” to the sun results in such a minor distance difference that it’s not the reason for the increased heating in the summers for a hemisphere. It’s the increase in the concentration of the solar rays over a given area due to the curve of the earth.
Quick correction on 2:50 No, it depends on the angle to the incoming sunrays. The distance to the sun is about the same everywhere on earth and has virtually no influence on the temperature difference between various locations on earth
2:47 Not distance, but sun angle. The distance varies by quite a bit during orbit, but it makes little difference compared to sun angle and even length of day, at least in this phase of the Milankovitch cycle. That's why the southern hemisphere's summer isn't much more or less extreme than the North in similar biomes
Thank you was looking for this. It has everything to do with angle of incidence and length of day not distance
Exactly!!
My school teacher did a science test on this, he used over-head projectors to show temps via angle difference via closeness
I was going to say it. It was a very big mistake in my opinion. It shows lack of very basic knowledge. I learnt that in school.
he SAID ANGLE...DERP
Loved the video! As an Earth Sciences student geology and geography content always makes me smile! It would be super awesome to see a video on the larger scale Wilson cycles that characterized the intervals of hundreds of millions of years of plate tectonics resulting in the formation and separation of the worlds ancient supercontinents and paleo oceans like Rodinia and the Iapetus or Tethys ocean. Thanks again for an interesting and cool video!
Did you notice the dozens of errors?
@@eedobee What errors?
Between 13900 BC and 14000 BC, a 100 year span, Earth's temperature rose 5 degrees Celsius. This is one of many intermediate spikes in the ice core data, not including the 10-15 degree Ice Age spikes. Humanity lived through this period just fine and had no heavy polluting industry to speak of at that time. In the past 200 years, which is twice that length of time, Earth's temperature has only risen by 1.2 degree Celsius.
A minor natural change in temperature that is in fact physically unstoppable and inevitable has been pathologized and blamed entirely on human activity in order to establish a carbon tax which allows governments to monitor every action of every person and tax them for it. The climate changes. Changes in local weather ARE NOT evidence of climate change, however, human activity CAN affect weather.
Changes in climate, not weather, are driven by the Milankovitch cycles, primarily precession of the equinox, which changes the angle of Earth's tilt over a 25,000 year cycle, and thus changes the total amount of sunlight the poles receive, known as the insolation cycle. This insolation data from ice cores coincides directly with the rise and fall of the past 4 Ice Ages. Furthermore the temperature was higher than it is now prior to the last 4 ice ages, and also coincides with the insolation cycle and the rise and fall of the Ice Ages. That's right, the temperature was higher back when humans were hunting wooly mammoths than they are now. No heavy industry to speak of. If no other fact about climate change remains in your memory, let that be the one.
This fact suggests that the warming we are experiencing now is that final spike of warming that occurs right before Ice Ages suddenly set in. Climate change is real, its not caused by humans, and we are headed into a regularly scheduled Ice Age according to every indicator, not a waterball Earth condition where the remaining icecaps in the already warm period were in fully melt away. Sea level rise cannot occur with slow melting because of isostatic rebound. Rapid melting is required to cause the floods and sea level rises that climate extremists harp on about.
Rapid melting is caused by a sudden addition of lots of heat to the atmosphere. This is how the Ice Ages end. The most popular theories on how Ice Ages end are supervolcanoes, comet impacts or massive solar flares. However, comet impacts best solve the issue of regularity, as the Ice Ages seem to last a similar amount of time, every time.
If we were to somehow try and affect these Milankovitch cycles, such as slowing down the rate of precession, it would spell real cataclysmic changes to Earth's surface, the likes of which climate extremists only dream of to justify the implementation of their carbon tax scheme..
@@hermestrismegistus9603ive been struggling to find any actual data supporting this, the only thingni found was the end of the last glaciation event which lasted 100,000 years and ended 25,000 years ago, with what we're currently in being the interglacial period, a particularly dangerous time to be altering the climate on the scale on 10s to 100s of years. Please do find me a source for these claims as its very interesting if true. In fact the data ive been looking at suggests that we are already at CO2 levels that should be expected to rise well past a "hothouse earth" event, especially if we keep pumping CO2 thats been trapped for 10s of millions of years into the atmosphere, in fact our CO2 levels have never risen to the levels they are today in the past 800,000 years. So please do provide sources and explain what exactly you mean
Lol you can really tell where i started to look more and more into this guy's claims and just found what seems to be mountains of evidence... *surprise* to the support of the current scientific CONSENSUS...
Well played. Simple and succinct. Im subscribing.
Wow, amazing video. I actually learn something on YT. Thank you!
This is definitely something that needs to be taught in schools more
it would go against the climate change hoax. so they never will
it was briefly mentioned in my school
@@GOATMENTATOR Not in mine. First heard of the Milankovitch cycles in university when studying geography. Been hooked by them since.
It causes doubt in the dogma of the "humans cause climate change" marketing, though. You can't argue with 'the message' or you'll be considered a dissident.
@@TexZenMaster Strange, the people who understands Milankovitch cycles tend to really worried about AGW...
Love all of your content man... keep them coming ... always!!
I always wondered if the orbit "tilted" too. Thanks for this video!
I do love the way when referring to CO2 levels, you display a coal fired power station - cooling towers, so that is steam (H2O) not smoke (CO2).
Tromso is at a higher latitude, not altitude. There a few more little mixups in this video. Usually flawless, keep them coming.
I noticed too. 🧐
@@frankkay6457 He also suggests that the seasonal tilt of the earth means high latitudes are closer/further away from the sun in summer/winter. While technically true, such tiny differences in distance to the sun are totally irrelevant to temperatures.
Tromso is not that cold. I have been there in winter. Is about like north Italy.
I was impressed by the power of the Gulf Stream.
@@alicesacco9329 Yea, just go inland to places like Kautokeino, or Karasjok, and the temps can get down to -50°C, though usually just between -20°C and -30°C. (the cold record in Norway was set in Karasjok in 1886, and measured at -51,4°C, though in 1999 the same place got as cold as -51,2°C)
@@budawang77 I thought the seasons were more to do with the angle of the sun rather than the distance from the sun.
man I really enjoyed this video. love to see more of this content about cycles the earth goes through
Amazing material, thanks 🧘🏾🤙🏾
& here we are talking about space, the universe, and particles with pride like we know everything and just look at what we don't know (& know) about Earth's cycles alone... A salute to the people who think, research, and share knowledge...
Beautiful production values. Love the silky 60 frames-per-second quality. Thank you for another piece of wonderful content, Alex. I hope you have a pleasant festive break.
You mean Christmas? The celebration of our only Saviour coming down to pur sinful level on a rescue mission involving forgiveness and payment for sin?
Have a really good CHRISTMAS, and stop pandering to non-Christians when refering to a Christian celebration.
@@user-or9cj3vk6t well he’s taking forever on this rescue mission. Tell him to hurry up.
@@user-or9cj3vk6t ironic to post an overtly religious comment on a specifically scientific video! 😆
@@Monkey80llx Ironic, but definitely not surprising lol.
Absolutely awesome video - learning stuff here for the very first time. Excellent production - script, graphics, narration all top quality. Thanks for educating us so well!
PS one quick query… at 09:03 you mention the tilt as 21.1 degrees but the graphic shows 22.1. Which one is correct? Thanks again.
If you didn't know about Astrum before this video then now you know!
For decades I have sat on my front porch to smoke, because I don't smoke in the house. Over the decades of sitting on the porch, I have noticed the shadow from the house has always been in the same spot. 3 years ago, for some reason, the shadow moved to the north by 3 feet. 2 years ago, it moved about another 8 feet to the north. Last year, it was still in about the same place it was the year before. This year, I can't say because the time I have taken note of the shadow's placement, it has been rainy and quite gray with no sun. So, no shadow. I've tried to research this to find out exactly why the sudden change, but I haven't found anything much to it. I have found things like this that indicate to a maybe, but nothing that says yes, this is why.
Most excellent explanation of this I've seen 👍
WOW! Not only did I learn something, but your graphics were outstanding! An awesome video.
What an honor to see Milutin Milankovic's thesis addressed here
Why is it an honor to you? Are you related?
@@demodemoncrat441 embarrassing, right?
@@SameAsAnyOtherStranger Why is it embarrassing?
All the great people come from Serbia :)
He is the one that explained why the earth has some long cold period and some short hot periods. The last glaciation ended only 10000 years ago and lasted 100 000 years. OK??
Also, adding to my previous comment, long, long before this slo-mo process has a noticeable effect (currently, cooling the earth at quite a lot less than Deg C per century), we shall enter a min-Ice Age, and exit it. The reason is to do with the global themohaline conveyor belt, being the system of oceanic surface and deep-sea currents which are driven by differences in saline concentrations and temperatures, as its name suggests. That current at the surface runs up to toward the North along the US Eastern coastline and then across the Atlantic to move southwards down the western flank of the British Isles, thereby warming them. There are already indications of a massive glacial melt-off on Iceland and Greenland, the latter being more significant, which has every potential this summer's end, or next or the one thereafter, but not much beyond, at current rates, if it even takes that long, to sufficiently slow or stop this current. The low-salt, cold water flowing into the upper reaches of this current can slow it, detour it and even, eventually, briefly, stop it. When that happens, a super-heated summer will lead to a super-intense winter in the North, then a very weak summer season, then an even more severe winter. That, in turn, will be the beginning of an Ice Age (which will affect the entire planet, of course, but most severely in northern climes). Due to the ongoing effects of hugely increased retention of atmospheric and sea-water energy (meaning increased temperatures), the Ice Age forthcoming shortly will likely be not very severe - and, with the methane and CO2 released already, the global warming process caused will continue after any a major climate regime change, long enough (around 35 years, if all emissions just stopped, which of course will not happen) to cause said Ice Age to be a 'mini' version, and lasting maybe decades, as opposed to many millennia. Kind of important to include all relevant elements, I would think. Or else one is trying to run by hoping down the road on a single leg.
Love the video keep them coming. You are very intelligent. That is obvious with this video.
Superb video with excellent commentary. This is probably the most well balanced, and the scientific explanation of how our seasons change and how the climate cycle works. Excellent.
Thank you Alex , for this informative video .
It's summer down the southern hemisphere, as you mentioned .
I trust the northern winter , is a lot nicer than our summer , thanks to the many volcanic activity , this year in the southern hemisphere - it's a warmer version of winter in the middle of NZ .
We've had the odd day with heat , and clear sky's , where shade has had to be sought , but it's definitely cooler this year .
Strange thing , we normally have at least one mountain range which gets snow - not this year , and it's not been on the mountains surrounding the city , for several years - last time it snowed in town to sea level was over 25years ago , and prior to that in the early mid 1970's , when it fell low enough for the rail tracks to be hidden , with no indication they lay beneath the snow , until a tran had run over the track .
I suspect next northern winter , maybe a bit wetter , and ours maybe more like it was ( or am I being to "romantic" in my forecast ? ) , colder , with snow , at least on the mountain tops , though with hindsight , it may as well be a Christmas whish ,🎁🎄 🤔🙂
Here in British Columbia, Canada it has been -40 or colder the last 3 days. Someone out in the Blackwater area posted a picture of their thermometer showing -53 I was told. Most all modern thermometers stop at -40 so it’s hard to know actual temp.
The last time it was this cold here was in 1990.
The temperature on the weather sites online always says it is warmer than what the thermometer says , usually by about 5 degrees Celsius. Midday temperatures are getting up to -35. Gasoline engines will hardly run at this temperature.
Just to be precise: is not the negligible distance variation from the sun in winter/summer to change the temperature of the earth surface, but the angle of incident sun rays (i.e. the energy received per square meter).
Note: I'm referring only to the first minutes of the video, where somebody can get a false understanding of the seasons mechanism.
The following of the video is very intetsting indeed.
Very good video, puts things in perspective.
This was extremely informative of a subject I wasn't even aware of. Great video
Excellent introduction to a fascinating subject.
Thanks for a very nice video on an important subject
Very good! Just have one comment. I don't think it would have destroyed the general publics' brains to include the actual names of the cycles:
(All approximate, of course.)
Eccentricity; 100,000 yrs
Obliquity; 41,000 yrs
Precession; 25,700 yrs
Noooooo....... My brain has been destroyed.
Alex, it's not so much being closer to the sun that is a big factor in temperature but how direct the energy from the sun is. The more tilted away from the sun a place is, the more atmosphere there is for the sun's energy to dispersed in, deflected. Plus there is an increase landmass surface area the further sloped the area becomes in relation to the 🌞
Interesting video! It was entertaining to watch while living in California living Spring while it’s been raining a lot lately
This is the best video to date that I've seen about all the movements of our Earth. Thanks for making this simple to understand for so many more people!
Astonishingly I was wondering about this a few days ago. I was limiting my consideration to the fact that our orbit is not circular, and wondering if there is a gradual shift in the position of the aphelion and perihelion in relation to the sun itself and how that might affect us. This video is perfectly timed, and goes far beyond what I was considering for different variables. Good to know Milankovich and others have looked at this as well. Wonderful as always!
Every 25771.5 years, perihelion precession repeats, it's the only one of the three cycles that is perfectly repeatable and has the same period.
It's worth noting that climate is very complex and most certainly can NOT be attributed to just one factor alone: the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Even on its own, its effect is much less than is alarmingly claimed.
@@MisterHowzat According to the laws of physics, (Stefan-Boltzmann's law) Earth without an atmosphere would be a frozen planet, it is only the greenhouse effect preventing iceball Earth. What's truly alarming is the scientific ignorance displayed by the ignorant anti-science crowd. Physics dictates reality, not science deniers
@@MisterHowzat I believe we are practicing for an impending ice age. If we can warm the planet with cars and farting cows, then we can hopefully globally warm the next ice age.
@@MisterHowzat The concentration of CO2 is the only viable theory atm. Why have we never seen this rate of warming in the history of the Earth? That alone makes several hypotheses fall apart.
As a Serbian, I approve this video! Thank you for remembering our great scientist.
@@paulvs55 You sound like one of those people that glue themselves to the walls or throw paint at art thinking they are making a difference. Go and find a life.
@paul snor Big coastal countries are yapping about global warming because they are afraid of massive flooding so the make it everyone's problem.
@paul snor Yes glow like that
@@soybasedjeremy3653 I bet you don't even know how much sea levels have risen since last ice age? Try in excess of 400 feet in complete absence of man-made CO2.
I bet you don't know their is ample evidence locked in the permafrost of a past with much warmer and richer life in the arctic. But how can that possibly be when we are going to destroy the planet by over-heating it with man-made CO2?
Increased photosynthesis results in more growth in some plants. Scientists have found that in response to elevated CO2 levels, above-ground plant growth increased an average of 21 percent, while below-ground growth increased 28 percent.Jan 27, 2022
Excellent analysis. Thanks
Love the vid! Existential dread in 3…2…1… but still loved it. Sobering to realise how fragile our environment is. It’s like you’re on a plane about to take off, there’s a little panic and a part of you just wants to get off and be safe on the ground. But our planet ship is our only carriage and there’s no getting off!
I've been getting off...
Our environment is fragile, but not because of the Milankovitch cycles. It's because of the killer asteroids. Ask the dinosaurs to tell their opinion, about what is the most dangerous threat.
Dont worry. A thousand years from now we'll have enough space mirrors to decide our climate on earth.
@@fredrika2359 worst idea ever
@@fredrika2359 Pfft. I doubt humans will be here in another 200 years at the rate we're going.
Appreciated the video. Well produced and thought out. One of the better ones on cycles I have seen.
Great video. Very well done and informative. Questioning the use of the term ice age vs period of glaciation. My understanding is we are now in an ice age now, but in a warm period within the ice age. Perhaps a topic for another video.
What is crucial to our current environment is the question : where are we in terms of the cycle; is it likely to become cooler in the Southern Hemisphere or warmer?
Exactly, scientists have studied this question and we're 1000s of years away from warming due to orbital forcing. The current warming is due to the extra CO2 added to the atmosphere by burning fossil fuels.
- Hausfather, Z., Drake, H.F., Abbott, T. and Schmidt, G.A., 2020. Evaluating the performance of past climate model projections. Geophysical Research Letters, 47(1), p.e2019GL085378.
- Lacis, A.A., Schmidt, G.A., Rind, D. and Ruedy, R.A., 2010. Atmospheric CO2: Principal control knob governing Earth’s temperature. Science, 330(6002), pp.356-359.
- Supran, G., Rahmstorf, S. and Oreskes, N., 2023. Assessing ExxonMobil’s global warming projections. Science, 379(6628), p.eabk0063.
Milankovich's name will be remembered for tens of thousands of years into the future because of the time line of ice ages.
Very interesting -I have learned a lot from this video. Excellently produced and presented as always -thank you for your wonderful channel .
The seasonal changes in temperature are NOT caused by the difference on "how close you are to the sun". This difference is negligible compared to the overall distance (0.0004% difference at max). The cause of the seasonal changes is that as the angle at which light rays reach t a specific latitude, the same energy is distributed in more or less earth area. For the same reason, the equator is not warmer because it is 6k km closer to the sun that the poles, it is because the sun's flux is perpendicular, minimizing the area at which it is spread, and this is a significant percentage difference (more than double the energy density than north or south latitudes).
Agreed! Thank you
The thing that many seem to not think about who parrot the idea that, well the Earth's climate has changed drastically in the past, is that none of us really want to live through that kind of drastic cataclysmic change and right now we have the ability to mitigate our impact on the rate of change of the Earth's climate, so it would be prudent for us to do so ... In the name of our own comfort and survival, but also all of the other flora and fauna we share this planet with who didn't ask for the problem they now have to live through as well ...
Just exactly how do we mitigate our impact on climate?
@@bartman59laj55 the basic answer is collectively, as a global species, we stop burning fossil fuels, if not altogether, at the very least to a level that is a fraction of the amount we are currently burning into the atmosphere presently.
The rate at which co2 has entered and stayed in our atmosphere is 100-200x faster than would naturally occur without our input and at a level far above what we have observed to have been the maximum amount at the end of the last ice age 20k years ago(400+ppm now vs. 280ppm then) ... We know definitively that the current levels of co2 are from our burning of fossil fuels specifically because of the type of carbon that is now much more prevalent in the atmosphere, carbon 12(the type present in plant matter), that when coupled with the lack of new carbon 14(a radioactive version of carbon that due to radioactive decay over time is no longer present in fossil fuels) also being found in the mix .... with these all taken together, the only possible source of the drastic increase of co2 in the atmosphere and at the extreme rate at which it has shown up is from us burning fossil fuels.
So yeah, there is the abridged long answer, to mitigate our contribution to climate change, we need to stop burning fossil fuels, STAT. hopefully everyone from government and industry leaders on down to each one of us take this challenge seriously enough to leave some semblance of the amazing world for those after us, which we have been gifted ourselves, tho any effort to mitigate our impact is positive, therefore worth our while ...
hope that helps to answer your question. peec.
learning is funny, i am 61 now, when i was in 4th grade, in the "weekly reader mag." we read about the acceptance of "plate tectonics" theory. lol, now its normal..lol. we learned about the tilt of the earth and the egg shape orbit, but never thought of a rise and fall. keep up the good work this is what we should be showing in elementary school now. love the video . thanks
All of this is very interesting, there’s another factor and that’s the cycle of the sun, which does get hotter or colder as well.
Yes, solar minima and maxima. I believe we are in a maximum right now that is due to shift towards a minimum in a few years time.
Once I read that if it was not for the current amount of green gas currently in the atmosphere we would be already back to ice age.
Another point to consider is that the position of continents is also a factor since no ice age was confirmed during the 200 million years of dinosaur era and I guess earth didn’t start orbiting the sun only after that 😀
Can you do a thing on the earth's magnetic field and how it's changing and whether it's going flip again cos I like your clips well explained and was to understand
Suspicious Observers channel on TH-cam has many good videos on these topics, pole reversal, different cycles, lots of good science.
Well explained, thanks. I learnt quite a bit about this in university, where there's quite a bit more detail, but your explanation has made it simple, concise and very well illustrated. Maybe a bit more about the feedback effects like albedo effect would help.
I was surprised about the change in amount of sunlight between perihelion and aphelion being as much as 23% but then I didn't know what the maximum eccentricity of the Earth's orbit gets to in these cycles. It must be considerable! Maybe as much as Mars' eccentricity is now?
I suppose there are models of the distant future climate based on these cycles without factoring in sudden changes in greenhouse gas concentrations, just to see what would happen if we were not contributing anything to the system. Climatology gets so complicated when there are so many factors involved including positive and negative feedback effects.
When describing typical annual seasons, it's not about how close or far a part of the surface is from the sun, it's about the angle. Which influences the area the same amount of light is distributed across as well as how much is reflected by the atmosphere.
There is a distance component when there's large eccentricity, but at our current 0.016, it's not remotely an issue.
Yeah I was very surprised to hear this bit of misinformation in the video. Sorry creator, this one is going to sting a lot for you haha
I learned the hard way that you can get sunburn on a cloudy day in Capo Verde off the coast of Algeria, though cloudy days are very rare there without volcanic influences.
that's like saying Pythagorean theorem isn't about A it's about B
@@rlibby404 yea, if B was 1000 times longer than A
Thank You for this video
Great explanation, thank you!
The quality of your content and the way you make things simplify is really remarkable and I hope to see some more of these knowledgeable videos :)
He thinks that our seasons are affected by our distance from the sun.
That's not even close to true