Just to point out - these are predictions and not my personal wants/favourites. My ideal contest would be (excluding the NQ’s): 1. Italy 2. Greece 3. Portugal 4. Poland 5. Serbia 6. Spain 7. Sweden 8. Finland 9. Azerbaijan 10. Ukraine
I don’t understand why bookmakers are still penalizing Italy in such an unjustified way! This year the "Ukraine" effect has made the predictions extremely chaotic! What do you think about?
I am Spanish and first of all thanks for the kind words about our entry this year, I have to say I love your entry this year as much as I love our entry because I am a big fan of British pop music especially of Keane band and I would be happy too if your entry wins and I think we both, UK and Spanish fans, must be proud of our respective entries this year after loads of years finishing in bottom 5. Think that if we get a top 5, this will be our best result for now in the 21st century and if we get 2nd place, it would be our best result since 1995. Many of us here in Spain (including myself) think the final winning battle will be UK vs Spain
I can predict one thing for sure: regardless of who wins there will be a huge uproar all over the internet. When it comes to the rest: well, I think the point differences between songs in the top 10 will be minimal, even between 1 and 5 between each of them. There will be also massive differences between jury in televoting in top 3 like in previous years.
You should react to Diodato’s Fai Rumore performance in semi final 1! I feel like it doesn’t get enough attention. The staging and everything was beautiful, even the Norwegian commentator teared up
I think this is one of the best analysis videos I’ve seen….. I can’t disagree with any of your logic, although I would rank slightly differently. I’m not sure Spain will win - if it’s not Ukraine, I think UK, Sweden or Poland are on a similar level. And maybe Serbia given that it’s going to be massively boosted by being the only Balkan country left, and also being in a brilliant position to stand out after all the big vocals. That Top 6 could go in any order….. so difficult to predict.
I don't even see Spain as a potential winner. I got it as my 14 out of 25. So, I am quite surprised. It's a really good song, but there are better entries this year in my opinion.
It is possible that people vote with their sensitive side of emotions this year in light of what is happening . The song to win the hearts of the people will be the one .
@@anasha1647 I hope that whoever win it's because people love it. So, even if it's not a personal one I would like I still can be happy for the country.
There should be another important factor included in the chart ei, diaspora/geography. This affects both jury and televoting. Serbia will be always elevated by former Yugoslavia countries. The same applies to certain extend to Moldova/Romania, Greece/Cyprus, Scandinavia, the Baltics, etc.
Yeah, Lithuania is pretty much guaranteed 12 televotes from Ireland and the UK, and possibly other countries with a lot of Lithuanians (I've heard Norway and Germany have a lot too?). Same goes for Poland.
Agreed..... it's frustrating. Only wish all countries would vote for a great/favourite entry not best buddy countries. I.e. Cyprus could enter a 3 minute fart and Greece will give it 12 points X2 and vice versa.
@@Marzi29 Maybe not 12 but definitely Poland and Lithuania will have a better score in UK/Ireland/Germany than in Montenegro or Macedonia. The weight of votes in UK, France or Germany is much lower than in such small countries like Slovenia, Montenegro, Makedonia, Croatia, Estonia, San Marino….
I try not to bow down to that theory of ‘politics’ playing a massive part in the votes. It might play a small part but overall, in my rankings, I don’t like to include those notions. It feels unfair and could be construed as xenophobic or stereotyping people from certain countries.
Hi Rachel, my predictions 😃: I am not sure about Spain winning the jury vote. I can see it coming between 11th-15th with the jury and top 5 with the public. I think the top 7 (not in order) with the jury will be UK, Azerbaijan, Australia, Poland, Greece, Sweden & Italy with Azerbaijan winning the jury vote. I think the top 5 (not in order) with the public will be Ukraine, Spain, Norway, Moldova & Serbia with Ukraine winning the public vote. I think there are going to be some big differences between the jury and public scores this year! Top 10 prediction (not in order): Greece, Italy, Sweden, Ukraine, Spain, Norway, UK, Poland, Serbia, Azerbaijan. If I had to pick one, I'd say Greece will win! But UK could also do it 🤞🇬🇧👍😃. Can't wait for the show tonight 😊.
don't agree with that. it's so difficult to dance and sing like that and keep your vocals stable. the performance is she dancing a lot, not just the backup dancers, so the juries, if they are professional singers, know how hard it is. I can see a better result for spain in the juries than in the televote
So just because I'm that kinda contest nerd, I did a 2nd simulation last night with more knowledge of staging/live shows etc., and using the actual finalists (whereas before I made one with who I believed were more likely to qualify). I tried to use historic voting patterns, general tastes, diaspora, and similarity of styles between each country's song and I had the following results (although I'm sure something's gonna be wrong, a few results seemed a little too high/low, but nothing is impossible): - Ukraine won in a landslide (possible but maybe I did rank them too highly with juries) - Greece, UK, Serbia and Sweden respectively rounded up the top 5, bearing in mind just how much momentum was gained with the UK and even Serbia's performance on Thursday. I also think juries will LOVE Greece. Sweden is Sweden. - Italy, Spain, Czech Republic, Poland and Portugal rounded up the top 10, some of which thanks to juries, some thanks to televote. - Switzerland is a candidate for a possible televote "nil points", I'm afraid. In my simulation however, it was Germany that got last place overall, and I do think this will happen, unfortunately. - Netherlands and France do less than people think they will overall, both getting just beneath the top 15. But here we are, just a few hours away of FINALLY finding out :D :D
Having seen the video now: - We have similar countries in the bottom 5 (I just have Australia there, and put Belgium and Finland just above them in 19th and 20th respectively (BE saved by juries, FIN by televote). - Back to Australia, I have them bottom 3, but tbh, if I think about it, that's WAY too low. Still not sure they'll get top 10, but I see why you put them there. Probably gonna be somewhere in the middle. - Maybe I overrated Romania at 14th, and to a lesser extent Portugal at 10th, oops. But POR is gonna do well with juries again I think, like last year (or perhaps better). - We're bang on the same re: Moldova, they got top 10 televote, bottom 5 jury, 12th overall. Just thought that was an interesting point to bring up! - Norway just missed out on top 10 for me, have them 11th, so we sort of agree that they won't be challenging the top 5 at all.
I had very similar predictions. Except I placed Czech 16. And I stubbornly placed Switzerland in my top 10. Altough there are many facets to use in the calculations, I thought that the emotional aspect of that song would overcome other aspects. I also had Poland in my top 10, but they ended up 12th. I had Portugal on 12th place because I was afraid that they wouldn't make it till top 10. I was going back and forth between the top 5. In one of my "simulations" I placed spain first. In another Sweden. In the end I chose UK as first. 1. Uk 2. Ukraine 3.Sweden 4. Serbia 5. Spain 6. Italy 7. Moldavia 8. Poland 9. Switserland 10. Norway 11. Greech 12. Portugal 13. Romania 14. Lithuania 15. Estonia 15 Czech Republic I personally also liked France but knew they would never win. Same goes for Switzerland but the earlier mentioned emotional aspect made it difficult to predict for me. Personally loved them.
@@Este_Estephania What a compliment, thanks so much! I sometimes think I write too much, lol. INFJ actually, you were very close :) You had some predictions that were very close to the real result as well! The top 5 was correct, just in a different order, and quite a few were bang on (Italy, Moldova, Norway, Lithuania e.g.). As for Switzerland, I'm quite sorry I was right about him getting 0 points, but I do see your reasoning about it being a very emotional piece that would normally help it along. He did quite ok with the juries though, 12th place. I had Italy win another simulation before the final, this was before the momentum for it seemed to have died down. The final time, I think I got it correct at 6th. And yes, loved France as well, such a shame they ended up 2nd last. I think it was simply overshadowed by the songs that came afterwards, and I was never sure the juries would pick up on it tbh. Good stuff from you too, bud!
I think Estonia will do better than you think - it's got an anthemic chrous and a distinctive style and it's on last which isn't always great but in this case it means they'll linger in the memory. I don't think the running order has nerfed Romania that much I reckon they were probably on the borderline Qwise and got that slot because they weren't contenders. I think Sweden might do better than the UK which will be lower in the top ten but you've justified your change. I guess I'm even more cautious because I feel I'm going out on a limb even hoping for the top ten in case it doesn't work out.
I love your videos so much. Great predictions, I agree with many of these I think top 5 will be Ukraine, Serbia, Sweden, Spain and Greece but idk the order My personal top 10 is: 1. Spain 2. Sweden 3. Italy 4. UK 5. Serbia 6. Poland 7. The Netherlands 8. Greece 9. Armenia 10. France ( and Estonia)
Like u, I feel Ukraine wont get the first place, bets have placed them on, but I do feel maybe the final will be between Spain and Italy or Spain and UK.
Very interesting! This is my prediction: 1. 🇸🇪 (1st in Jury / 2nd in Televote) 2. 🇺🇦 (3rd in Jury / 1st in Televote) 3. 🇬🇧 (2nd in Jury / 4th in Televote) 4. 🇷🇸 (8th in Jury / 5th in Televote) 5. 🇪🇦 (9th in Jury / 6th in Televote) 6. 🇬🇷 (5th in Jury / 9th in Televote) 7. 🇲🇩 (ignored by Jury / 3rd in Televote) 8. 🇦🇺 (4th in Jury / ignored by Televote) 9. 🇮🇹 (7th in Jury / 10th in Televote) 10. 🇵🇱 (6th in Jury/ 11th in Televote) 🇳🇴, 🇨🇿 and 🇳🇱 will round up the left side of the scoreboard. I actually think a lot can happen tonight, let's see who ends up winning. It will surely be an amazing show, good luck to all the participants!
Honestly I have no idea what this year is gonna turn out. It's so unpredictable to me. I am really excited for the upcoming result but at the same time, I am also scared as hell for my favorites. I hope all the best for my top 5 (Italy, The Netherlands, Sweden, Portugal, and Lithuania) and other entries.
Eurovision 2022 1.🇸🇪 Sweden 2.🇪🇦 Spain 3.🇺🇦 Ukraine 4.🇬🇧 United Kingdom 5.🇮🇹 Italy 6.🇳🇴 Norway 7.🇳🇱 Netherlands 8.🇦🇺 Australia 9.🇬🇷 Greece 10.🇷🇸 Serbia 11.🇪🇪 Estonia 12.🇫🇮 Finland 13.🇦🇲 Armenia 14.🇦🇿 Azerbaijan 15.🇵🇱 Poland 16.🇨🇭 Switzerland 17.🇱🇹 Lithuania 18.🇫🇷 France 19.🇲🇩 Moldova 20.🇫🇷 France 21.🇷🇴 Romania 22.🇵🇹 Portugal 23.🇧🇪 Belgium 24.🇨🇿 Czech Republic 25.🇩🇪 Germany
You have Italy in seventh place? The very best song in the competition! ESC is always so depressing, such terrible results year after dreary year. But Italy deserves to win it.
@@user-gd3qk3fu2g Thank you for putting the UK so high. It gives me hope we'll do well and it means so much that non Brits believe in Sam. Slavia Ukraine 🇺🇦 and Go Kalush Orchestra.
@@freemangriffin4953 Two main reasons as to why I put Italy so low though it's my personal winner of this year's contest: If the vocals for both the jury and the public show are not good enough I fear that other songs in the "same category" as Italy are going to stand out more than Italy. My other concern is about the public vote where the public could lower the song to a 6-10th placement (I'm thinking of Moldova - Serbia - Spain - Norway - UK - Ukraine who will probably do better than Italy in term of public score although Italy will have a decent score)
Italy (Mahmood & Blanco) won the Best Lyrics Awards organised by Eurovision 2022. Last year Maneskin won in the same category before their victory - Eurovision 2021!!! 🇮🇹💚🤍❤️”Brividi” & “Zitti e Buoni”
Well Rachel ... you've got some surprises in there. Spain winning - that would be quite something, and I'd happily go along with that. Like you, I really am torn on where to put the UK, because we've become so used to being crap that we have no feel for where we may come with a good song! We have literally forgotten how to win 🙂 I'd completed my finishing order, but then realised that I needed go through it and consider the running order. Watching this video made me realise I'd largely neglected its effect. I mean, Portugal and Norway are going to suffer, despite the song quality. Contrasting fortunes for Netherlands and Moldova. S10 is kind of lost in 11th, while you correctly point out that Moldova are going to wake the TV audience up as they debate going for a pee during Iceland's snooze-fest (I love the song and the band, but people will be flagging by this point). Anyway, having revisited my list, I have decided that FOR NOW, this is how it goes (it will be adjusted as I watch the live performances, as always): 1. Ukraine (can you imagine if this DOESN'T win?) 2. Sweden 3. United Kingdom (can you imagine if this DOES win?!) 4. Spain 5. Italy 6. Poland 7. Serbia 8. Greece 9. Australia 10. Norway 11. Moldova 12. Czech Republic 13. Estonia 14. Portugal 15. Finland 16. Azerbaijan 17. Armenia 18. France 19. Romania 20. Lithuania 21. Belgium 22. Netherlands (I just realised this is down in 22nd. I may need to adjust this later) 23. Iceland 24. Switzerland 25. Germany Moldova and the Czech Republic are more wishful thinking than logical thinking, but then why don't I just put Serbia top if I'm going to think like that? This is so HARD this year! Nobody is going to get it 100% right, and that's why I love it. I think I might move S10 up a bit, but not by too much. Maybe five places to replace Armenia in 17th? I have no chuffing idea. Good luck for tonight!
Personally, I think the UK will do better than Spain from the jury’s Edit: Just adding that I think Spain will do better than the UK on the televote. This is going to be a very close final and it could come down to UK vs Spain in the end.
Might be true…but I don’t it will tank the jury either as music experts should reward her for her on stage performance … she is probably the best performer of the group and it’s not even close…but I do think if Spain does win … it will be due to the public vote…I do think UK could end up like “Nobody But You”… the jury clearly loves it, but it will tank the public vote…
UK will do better in juries, Spain will do better in televoting. Everything depends on how many points each country receives from their respective positions. Good luck to everyone.
I have seen the live version of Space Man that was uploaded in the Semi Final clip. All I can say is, WOW. The staging and lighting is FANTASTIC. From 2:00 on the song it just gets better and better, moving from one level to another. We've got a really good one this time. Our chances of doing well are much higher. We shouldn't expect first place because of Ukraine but we've gotta give him credit when credit is due. Sam Ryder's aims are to change attitudes of people within the UK towards Eurovision. He is just the beginning and I've got to say it's an AMAZING beginning. I will say I won't be surprised if we do end up better than this as I was absolutely GOBSMACKED when I saw the live version. Is this even us anymore?!a
I think it will go better with people who never listened to the song. First listening I was surprised by Rachel's judgment about it. The second time I would have been even harsher than her. To me so, so repetitive. As only songs which stay in your mind after one listen and are predictable in the melody can be.
Ok, if THIS happen, as a spanish/italian remix ancestry 😂 I'm going to gift you a fabulous spanish serrano ham, not only by these predictions, cause I know as me you're team Amanda too, but for all the work you did these weeks, bringing us honest information about the contest. So, mark this comment, there is a ham potentially in the air 😊😊
netherlands clear top 10, poland under the top 5, finland surely around 15th place at least (will have massive help from the rocker community); i really agree with your top 3
Go Italy 🎼 I think you can do it again (I'm sure you Ukraine will do it later tonight and not just because of the song but because they're at war and that's pretty rough because you don't relate an ESC song to politics or to that what is happening in the country right now ) thanks ThePeaceAround for the video.😁
Not too sure about Spain's televote. Despite all the glitz, she only got about 4% of the televote in the national final, losing comfortably to a political and a message-heavy song. So if it gets to 150+ televote points, it's a victory already
Hm. Your prediction is really interesting. When I first watched Chanel’s live perfomance, I said to myself: she’s gonna win, even though it’s not my favorite song or artist from this year. But also I think Ukraine is the favorite one to win tonight as well. Yeah. We have pretty amazing artists tonight, it’s kinda hard to know what is gonna happen. I look forward to seeing all of this! Exciting! 😊
Wow gracias from Spain. Although I’m not a fan of the song, the job Chanel has done it’s amazing and I understand why it might be the winner. Also rooting for my lovely UK with Sam and S10 from the Netherlands 🇳🇱🇬🇧🇪🇸
We all know that Ukraine will win this year, and we all know why (I'm not saying that Ukraine doesn't have a good song because they HAVE a good song)... I'm saying that other reasons will contribute to its winning besides the fact of having a good song. Even if Freddie Mercury magically appeared in Turin tonight and would compete with a song, he still wouldn't win! This year the competition in front of Ukraine is irrelevant....
I totally agree - in fact, I think the main weakness of Eurovision is due to the lack of an exclusive and thorough attention to artistic quality factors, and just that, at the contest.
I’m not 100% sold on that idea. I think 60% odds on winning is just far too high - it’s suggesting that Ukraine will win with a landslide 800 points!? I don’t believe that will happen. We’ll see
I feel that Germany's song vocals should be higher. He is super consistent and clean. I am Romanian but I can relate so much to that song - I really hope it will do well ;-;
Interesting analysis. I'm skeptical of weight running order at the same level as song and voice. Don't think it matter so much. And I also think that you, among many, think that Italy will get many points from juries. But we will see tonight. Wish you a Great Eurovision evening! 🤩
Could people knock it off with voting Ukraine in Eurovision? I mean I support Ukraine even with military troops, and I'm a Leftist (believing in the power of collaboration (Human Spirit) instead of the power of competition (Natural Selection)), BUT: this indeed is a Competition (for fun, without serious negative consequences), and here the morality of Competition applies (its immoral to help a competitor out of pity). Not saying Ukraine's song is bad, but its not no.2 for goodness sake..
I hope that the best song and the best performance will win tonight and that people only will vote for musical reasons! My personal top 2: 1. Italy 2. Greece. Because I think these three vocalists can build careers worldwide. Let's be honest, most ESC winners get forgotten within a few years.
Thank you for your predictions! I think the second place for Ukraine will be perfect! I don't really like the comments like "oh, they have a pity victory". I just don't think this is fair. We don't need pity, we need strength and support. This is only a song contest, and Ukrainians didn't want the war to happen to win Eurovision.
OK... I think this could be very accurate. A shame about France and the Netherlands... Portugal too, but I get why. Hoping both are higher. Iceland in 18th could be a tad high but I wouldn't mind that. Czechs should absoultely be up there. Moldova, in a sea of ballads, could be one to watch. The top ten looks fairly similar to mine. Norway could be higher if the public mark is very high indeed. I'm not sure about Poland 5th but their score will be high. Spain winning is a big call, especially as the juries may not have this top three which I think would be necessary, but you never know...
Thanks again Rachel I really enjoyed watching this and although I haven’t made my own prediction for who will finish exactly where on the top 25 as you have, the general placings that you have chosen Id roughly agree with. I don’t personally think Spain can win it. It seems possible that they could come 2nd because she performs the song extremely well. But I just cannot see it overtaking Ukraine. The political push is bound to give Ukraine an overall landslide. It shouldn’t be that way but Eurovision and politics can never be fully divorced unfortunately. I think Sweden and Serbia could also push into the top 5. Im less confident that Poland will make the top 5 despite his outstanding vocal. He may even miss the top 10 if he was very unlucky. I think that Czech Republic may have got into the top 10 has they not been first in the running order. That disappointed me because I just think either people are still boiling their kettles when the first song comes on, or it may not stay as fresh in their minds after a full 25 songs. But top 10 for Czech, still possible. Also, I think people have missed a trick with Switzerland. I’m certain he will come higher than the bottom 5. I’m just not sure where. possibly 10-15th but it’s even possible he could actually break into the top 10 in my own opinion. For me this is the dark horse of the show. And I may be proved wrong on this. It’s just that for me I can connect to the song on an emotional level and for me that’s what quality music is. For many young people quality music means getting up to dance and enjoying the beat, and they don’t as often look for the emotional connection. That’s why some have berated The Swiss entry unfairly. And I get it. They are young and perhaps look for something different in music. I’m not old, I’m just 39. But I can see that for me Switzerland is a great song and he performs it with a touch of magic. His vocal is great and different. I can see the juries been right behind it. Will the public? I don’t know. I think they may vote for this more than people expect. It’s a dark horse in my own opinion. But I could be proved wrong too. All I know is that it’s a great song. Sorry my messages have gone on this long it’s just, I’m a man of many words when it comes to Eurovision. I’m such an enthusiast for it Rachel. :)
Hope your right!! Im spanish :D But I would be so happy if Sam wins. Im gonna be voting for him, he is my favorite :) And if we dont win, I hope is Uk. And even if we do win, hope for second or thrid place for Sam. Is soo good!! Best of luck to you tonight
thank you for this excellent run-down. I too think the betting odds are inflated. I have had one concern with the Spain entry- to me it seemed that Europe was not in a sassy mood/sexy mood in the semis. They seem to have stayed away from those songs that either had that kind of staging or had that kind of lyrics (Achille Lauro, Albania, Ireland) and Chanel is very much like that. I hope I am wrong because she definitely is bringing it.
For me, Lithuania, Iceland, Portugal, France, if they do their work well, they can win. Czech Republic too. Sweden possibly can win too. Surprisely for me, possible can win Poland too. Never we could imagine, someone from Poland can finally win but it is possible.
@@julitaropiak6763 Czytaj ze zrozumieniem... nie piszę o tym, że nigdy nie wygra, tylko że żadnemu Polakowi się nie śniło nigdy, że będziemy mieć kiedykolwiek szansę na wygraną.
I am hoping S10 finishes in the Top 10. You said that you knocked it down for the language barrier but you also rank Italy, Spain, and Ukraine quite high even though those songs are ALSO in native languages.
I totally agree with you about Sam. (I’m Irish born but British bred btw) I’m so used to both Ireland and the UK getting destroyed, so I’m expecting us to finish like 12th, but really hope that we win 🤣🤣
Not my predictions, my picks: The finalists for this year's Eurovision Song Contest have been revealed. Here is my completely subjective top 25 for this year. My winner is my OVERWHELMING choice, as I think it is the very best song of 2022, period!: 1. ITALY, Mahmoud & Blanco, "Brividi" 2. POLAND, Ochman, "River" 3. LITHUANIA, Monika Liu, "Sentimental" 4. SWITZERLAND, Marius Bear, "Boys Do Cry" 5. NETHERLANDS, S10, "De diepte" 6. PORTUGAL, Maro, "Saudade, saudade" 7. FRANCE, Alvan and Ahez, "Fulenn" 8. ARMENIA, Rosa Linn, "Snap" 9. SWEDEN, Cornelia Jakobs, "Hold Me Closer" 10. GREECE, Amanda Georgiadi Tenfjord, "Die Together" 11. ICELAND, Systur, "Meo haekkandi sol" 12. ESTONIA, Stefan, "Hope" 13. SERBIA, "Konstrakta, "In capore sano" 14. ROMANIA, WRS, "Llamame" 15. UKRAINE, Kalush Orchestra, "Stefania" 16. SPAIN, Chanel, 'Slo Mo" 17. UNITED KINGDOM, Sam Ryder, "Space Man" 18. AZERBAIJAN, Nadir Rustami, "Fade To Black" 19, BELGIUM, Jeremie Makiese, "Miss You" 20. FINLAND, The Rasmus, "Jezebel" 21. CZECH REPUBLIC, We Are Domi, "Lights Off" 22. GERMANY, Malik Harris, "Rockstars" 23. AUSTRALIA, Sheldon Riley, "Not The Same" 24. NORWAY, Subwoofer, "Give That Wolf a Banana" 25. MOLDOVA, (blanking out on the name of their atrocity)
Past is prologue. Just like Jamala defeated Dami in 2016, Kalush will out score the rest. This is an even bigger moment; expect more countries with near zero scores this year. I’m here for Sam’s silver medal. 🥈
This is going to be a real bloodbath. This year we don't have a clear winner, the quality is high so little details can cost many positions. I really hope that Ukraine doesn't win, not only because it's not the best song but also because it would really awkward. I simply can't imagine any discussion about Ukraine hosting or interviews... I'm not sure about Spain winning, last year all pop/dancing acts were slayed by both public and jury, I have the feeling Spain could be a shock for many. I'm really not sure, but my 2 cents, considering the running order and the staging, go on UK. My hearth stays with Portugal and Greece Btw it's going to be tough for me too, the here starts at 2:00 am, but I want to see it live
We actually have very similar predictions of the results. Here's what I'm suspecting might happen in the contest: 1. Ukraine 2. Italy 3. UK 4. Spain 5. Sweden 6. Poland 7. Greece 8. Serbia 9. Norway 10. Czech Republic 11. The Netherlands 12. Australia 13. Moldova 14. Portugal 15. France 16. Lithuania 17. Estonia 18. Armenia 19. Azerbaijan 20. Finland 21. Switzerland 22. Belgium 23. Iceland 24. Romania 25. Germany A few things I disagree on (perhaps controversially for a few of them) with a few predictions as well: -Spain will be lower with juries than televote (around 8th, though I can see higher) -Poland will also score higher with televote but not by much -Greece will finish outside of the top 10 with televote -Serbia will be top 5 with televote -Australia will finish bottom 10 with televote -France will be top 10 with televote but low with juries -Lithuania will get a better televote than expected (around 50+ points) -Romania will finish almost last with juries (Moldova will save absolute last though) -Germany, Switzerland and maybe Belgium will get 0 points from televote
@@aaronespx282 I feel like the televote will have them number one by at least 50 points and the jury will put them top 5, giving them a finish of first
1:18 - 1:31 Thank you so much for saying this big TRUTH. I've seen people saying "If the song is good, it can overcome their running order and win". No, that's not true. Since the introduction of the televote, the winning song that performed the earliest was Turkey's in 2003 (4th) and then Israel's in 1998 (8th). And both of them won by a minimum margin of points in a nerve-wracking final voting. Also, Turkey only won by 1 point and diaspora helped them win, objectively. If Malta had had the same exact song and performance, the result would have been diferent... And in these last 19 years, all winning songs have performed either in the privileged area of the first half (10th-13th) or in the second half (not at the very beginning). So that says too much. The only scenario in which I can see a song winning, despite being drawn 1st-5th in the running order, is if juries gave it a landslide victory that could make up for the poor result it would later receive in the televoting (and that is not happening this year)
My prediction results are Top 3 and as for these 3 al 3 are just phenomenal and i will be happy eith either 3 winning i'm rooting for Armenia i think the song the performance and over all staging and delivery is a whole other level above the rest and i-? Really hopefull 1- Armenia 2- Spain 3 -Greece Top 5 i think these are great songs i think Norway has entertainment factor on lock i think they'll do very welll in the televote jury could go either way. And as for Uk i'm going in with the traditional expect the worst hope for the best strategy i think it's a really good overall song and if it makes it to top 5 i think it will be very well deserved. 4- Norway 5- United kingdom Upper top 10 i was really suprised by these 2 espeacially poland i think they both dkne exceptionally well and it's getting to the point where these are the songs that are sticking in my head more and more 6 - Romania 7 - Poland Lower top 10 i think these 3 will do really well the vocals where on point the backing music was really good for them i just think compared to the rest of the top 10 they might be a little forgettable in the long run 8- Azerbajian 9 - Estonia 10- Czech republic High mid tier i thought all 5 where fairly decent and i can see doing fairly well but not quite top 10 level well 11 - Germany 12- Finland 13 - Belgium 14 - Italy 15 - France Middle tier i feel with both this tier and the lower mid tier they're just Safe i'm not in love but i' not hating and if they place anywhere round where i've placed them it wont be offensive in anyway 16- Australia 17 - Sweden Lower mid tier 18 - Ukraine 19 - Iceland 20 - Moldova Bottom 5 i felt the least connection with these songs over all i thought Netherlands and Portugal espeacially have given much better performances in latter years this for me just felt quite flat. 21- Lithuania 22 - Portugal 23 - Serbia 24 - Switzerland 25 - The Netherlands
Thank you for your analysis, I think you have the top 3 nailed, just in which order is in the lap of the gods, i backed Spain 6/1 each way betting without Ukraine, which looks a free play .Thanks again for all your effort.
Picking up a winner is difficult because we do have many different music genres. Personal preferences are therefore leading the ranking. Overall I do believe that Finland will do much better than your ranking. It’s definitely a top 10. UK has more chances of Spain to win this, but none of the 2 will make it. Tonight is the night of Ukraine (and not because of the war) having Sweden and Italy as main contenders. My personal view
@@freemangriffin4953 Italy can win if the performance is perfect and they manage to share with others the meaning and the emotions of their songs. Re their performance I am a bit worried about them being a bit tired since they are are touring around. Re Ukraine (as last year) I do like the mix between folk music and modern one (this year rap and previous year electronic). Voice and performance are entertaining. Having said that there are at least 5 potential winners all deserving to win
Agree with a lot of your assertions! Ukraine in second for me as well. In the end, I think the lucky number of the night is 17. That is, I believe the running order will play a huge part in the outcome, and it’ll be Greece rising to the top for a shocking win. Spain in third, with Poland and Sweden rounding out the top five
Honestly this is like 2017. Maro’s Song is just like Salvador Sobral’s Song. Much less is much more in a Song with some beautiful Guitar Chords and an Indie style that reminds me of London Grammar and Mariana’s voice even sounds like Hannah Reid. So unless Carnival arrived at Eurovision I think that Portugal will win.
I think Ukraine will win. Firstly, it's gonna win the televote by a landslide (potentially the first entry to reach 400 points in one of the votings); I think in a normal situation, televoting would place them around the 4th/5th place. But given the current context, it's also going to receive many votes of "moral support" (specially, from the non-eurovision public and displaced ukranians across Europe). Secondly, it may not finnish in the juries' top 5, but it's gonna do well: I can already see many juries being biased and giving them high scores (Georgia, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Moldova, etc. [basically all the countries which are close to the war] and western juries may also give them votes as moral support). Realistically speaking, in a normal situation, juries would place this around 18th. They've also been given the best spot in the 1st half, so that says enough. It will secure them even more votes from the televoting. Also, thank you for your words about Spain's entry. However, I think it's pretty safe to say either UK or Sweden have won the jury voting. As for Spain, I don't know how they must have placed her. Either decently well, but not in the top 5; or badly. And I'm concerned about that :(. I doubt conservative juries have placed Chanel well, specially after considering she performed between Italy and The Netherlands (two jury-friendly songs) Regarding the televoters, I think Chanel can do really well, but maybe 3rd (Ukraine performing 2 spots afterwards can affect her a bit). Serbia will most likely come 2nd (it has a very good running order)
Of course Ukraine will win !!!!! Sympathy support voting for a so so forgettable entry .... The history books will say 2022!!!! Wow!!!! Why??? Really!!!!! Next year I can't wait.....
Spain is gonna do very well in The juries. That's almost a fact at this point now. Televising will decide the winner after the massive amount of points given to Ukraine
@@kenneththom9165 I know. It is even more frustrating because their song wouldn't be a worthy winner, and as such, in a normal situation, it wouldn't have a possibility to win. I'm afraid this is gonna affect the contest's reputation
I don't really understand why people see Belgium so weak this year. In my opinion, this is one of the most contemporary songs this year, with good vocals and a solid performance. My hot take: Belgium will end up on the left side of the scoreboard.
I think Spain will get televote love but idk if she will get a lot of love from the jury because it’s not lyrically or musically interesting. It also is the only song with a dance break in it… which is cute but songs like this usually haven’t been rewarded by juries.
There's never been a PERFORMANCE like this. Not even Fire by Eleni Foureira comes close to what she does, and that was 2nd and it's still regarded as one of the best Eurovision moments in history.
The countries I would disagree with you the most are Poland (I see it around 10th with the cheesiest/campiest effects of the night), Czech Rep (around 15th for me), Netherlands (8th-10th), Moldova (around 15th), Ukraine (landslide winner), Portugal (bottom 5, maybe the most impacted by running order). Additionally, I have a feeling that Romania and Lithuania will end within the bottom 5, switching places with Azerbaijan and Belgium. We'll see what happens tonight!
Dear Rachel! Your prediction made me so, so happy! I wish so much that your prediction became reality!! I have loved Spain's entry from the very first moment and I am almost rooting for it and I will celebrate it so much if Spain is gonna win tonight!! But still I feel kind of intimidated by the bookmaker's prediction of an overall win for Ukraine. I really hope, they got it wrong this year(although only once back in 2016, they did not predict the winner). I think Lithuania will finish higher than you predict, somewhere in the upper middle section, because this song stands out a lot, I think UK is going to end in the lower top 10 and I really think, Greece will do slightly besser than Sweden, because it is overall a fast perfect entry which will appeal both to juries and the audience a lot. And I think Armenia will finish lower than in your prediction. Well let's see what happens tonight, good luck to all the countries, may the best song win, and let's celebrate tonight another ESC!
Who'd wanna be the King..... Ochman didn't expect but he is already King of Eurovision Poland.......@@@@@ Vote for Poland @@' 23 @@@ Love from Poland @@@ Good luck @@@
I agree that Spain is the best and most professional proposal this year form an artistic/musical viewpoint. Because of this, it should win. However, I have doubts that it will win. There are extra musical factors that play a role at the ESC, unfortunately. Thank you so much for your analyses. They are always very good and I have learned from you over the weeks.
@@freemangriffin4953 You are legitimated to dislike SloMo, but your choice of adjective is dead wrong - Drecky (poor quality and little value) is not something that can be applied to that song. Next time say something of more substance, please, and try to separate your personal taste form the objective attributes of what you are judging. Put differently - just think that you don't need to ruin your personal taste statements with derogatory comments towards what you do not like. Thanks, and kind regards from New York City.
@@freemangriffin4953 I don't get it either. I see nothing of quality there except the dancing, and even that is marred by the bare butt shaking up a storm.
Well if we set as a criteria that you hit rankings if thery are +-2 of what your model predicted, your prediction is 11/25 or 44% accuracy :) nevertheless i enjoyed your video and analysis :)
I will be ill if Spain wins. There is nothing the least bit unique in the song, no quality in the lyrics whatsoever, and staging and dancing should not win a song contest.
nice video but I disagree...you have too high Spain in jury voting...first???..no way..top 5 maybe..also you have too high overall Poland and Italy....top 10 sure but not so easy top 5....we will see tonight... my top 5: 1. Ukraine 2. UK 3. Spain 4. Sweden 5. Serbia
Wow Rachel u're a master of the statistics…nice netherlands televote is so different. Ukraine i think a bit exagerate but it is my opinions….just the only one who doesn't like Poland's voice it's me? haha ... which I actually think is not that the voice is not beautiful, it is beautiful, but in my opinion it is not good for that song. 10 then I find it just exaggerated regardless, Poland for me voice is 7.5 and the song 9.5, if you make a comparison with the voice of Greece, why did it only take 7 then? just agree with staging. incredible Spain, this result amazes me a little. Good job Rachel
To my opinion australia must not be at top 10. Chech republic must be 10. Also united kingdom must be 5th and poland 4th. Greece 6th and and sweden 7th. Netherlands must be higher. As for the winner i like more ukraine than spain. Keep up the good work!!!! My top 5 songs are (Greece, Ukraine, Netherlands, Poland,Serbia)
I think that Belgium is doing better tonight on stage just like Space man is good on stage Australia brings it better in Turin Sweden is like it is, very best 😄 Italy also good and who's gonna win 😏 have also good luck the country 😐
And, if I may, here is a humble suggestion for the future of the ESC - get the best possible professional juries - the best - and give the jury vote about 2/3 of the total, not just 50% as it is now. Personal tastes by televoters are fine, but they do not necessarily reflect a concern for, or an understanding of, artistic/musical quality ... No need to democratize absolutely everything in life. I believe in expert knowledge - and these days we desperately need expert knowledge in many realms of life, including music contests. I say this kindly and respectfully.
In 2015 the jury decided to give the trophy to Sweden's Heroes over Il Volo's Grande Amore that haven't even finished second. Also, last year, the jury gave to Finland or Ukraine less points than to songs like the ones from Netherlands or Bulgaria. In 2019 the jury winner was North Macedonia. In 2018, the jury winner was Austria and the list goes on. Historically the jury actually had the tendency to politically as well - and there is way more variance in jury votes than in televoting votes actually. I strongly disagree with your opinion. I believe million of votes should matter at least as much as the votes of 5 representatives of each country. If let's say there are 100k votes in a country, than the vote of only one jury matters even more than the vote of 20k people already - mainly because they can distribute their points across multiple songs - and this is already very far from "democracy". In a country, you can have 500k votes for a winner and 10k points for the second place and then 490k mean nothing. Also, how do you even quantify the artistical or musical quality of a song - how do you differentiate between 2 songs that are really good, if not in a subjective way - this is not a competition about an exact science where all the experts would agree upon the same idea - where their expertise would be way more valuable than the ones of a way higher number of randoms.
I might spontaneously combust if Spain win, Chanel deserves it so much and Spanish Eurovision fans have been waiting so long to win again and on their own and not with accusations of rigging. Please vote España 🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸
I think Poland will be much lower. It will score less in jury voting. Historically it has never been qualified to the Grand Final by jury vote. (Never in first 10). Opposite to Australia that it is always favoured by jury. This year I am amfraid that Sheldon will flop completely in televoting.
Idk I’m convinced Poland will be high up! When people heard his vocals for the first time on Thursday, they immediately said ‘winner vibes’ and ‘wow awesome voice’. Reckon that will translate to votes
I don't get why you all like Spain so much. The chorus is not much of a melodic/harmonic excellence, not even rhythmic. The lyrics idea is as shallow as it gets, and the staging is inflated with bikinis, which is the cheapest way to grab attention. I'm not saying I don't like the whole thing, just that this shouldn't not be no.1. Personally I like Estonia, Poland, etc
![[UNCUT] “อภิสิทธิ์” ครม.อุ๊งอิ๊ง แย่งเก้าอี้กันฝุ่นตลบ “ทักษิณ” บงการเอง Iคนดังนั่งเคลียร์I 21ส.ค.67](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/a_b-kItw2jY/mqdefault.jpg)
Just to point out - these are predictions and not my personal wants/favourites.
My ideal contest would be (excluding the NQ’s):
1. Italy
2. Greece
3. Portugal
4. Poland
5. Serbia
6. Spain
7. Sweden
8. Finland
9. Azerbaijan
10. Ukraine
Finland top 8 👍
Azerbaijan 9th🇦🇿
Mine is pretty similar but I have 1-Greece and 2- Italy :) and FINALLY someone that appreciates Poland and Azerbaijan :)
@@pxrplehairgirl5030 Poland is very overrated and appreciated, Azerbaijan,'s the one that underrated
I don’t understand why bookmakers are still penalizing Italy in such an unjustified way! This year the "Ukraine" effect has made the predictions extremely chaotic! What do you think about?
I am Spanish and first of all thanks for the kind words about our entry this year, I have to say I love your entry this year as much as I love our entry because I am a big fan of British pop music especially of Keane band and I would be happy too if your entry wins and I think we both, UK and Spanish fans, must be proud of our respective entries this year after loads of years finishing in bottom 5. Think that if we get a top 5, this will be our best result for now in the 21st century and if we get 2nd place, it would be our best result since 1995. Many of us here in Spain (including myself) think the final winning battle will be UK vs Spain
Spain Winner ❤️
I can predict one thing for sure: regardless of who wins there will be a huge uproar all over the internet. When it comes to the rest: well, I think the point differences between songs in the top 10 will be minimal, even between 1 and 5 between each of them. There will be also massive differences between jury in televoting in top 3 like in previous years.
There will be chaos !!
I mean between jury AND televoting and also 1 and 5 points difference between entries in top 10. My phone didn't let me to edit properly.
Ukraine will win. Because of political reasons. There is no point to this years Eurovision.
@@ThePeaceAround This year's winner is gonna piss everybody. I'm so afraid of everything at this point. Oh, my god.
@@ThePeaceAround 😂😂
You should react to Diodato’s Fai Rumore performance in semi final 1! I feel like it doesn’t get enough attention. The staging and everything was beautiful, even the Norwegian commentator teared up
If u make a norwegien cry it has to be really good
And the audience singing with him in the acoustic part, that gave me brividi
I agree!
I think this is one of the best analysis videos I’ve seen….. I can’t disagree with any of your logic, although I would rank slightly differently. I’m not sure Spain will win - if it’s not Ukraine, I think UK, Sweden or Poland are on a similar level. And maybe Serbia given that it’s going to be massively boosted by being the only Balkan country left, and also being in a brilliant position to stand out after all the big vocals. That Top 6 could go in any order….. so difficult to predict.
Wow!! Thank you :)
I do work in a statistics and finance based career so I try and put a bit of effort into it 👍
Meanwhile poland ended up 12 🙃
I don't even see Spain as a potential winner. I got it as my 14 out of 25. So, I am quite surprised. It's a really good song, but there are better entries this year in my opinion.
It is possible that people vote with their sensitive side of emotions this year in light of what is happening . The song to win the hearts of the people will be the one .
@@anasha1647 I hope that whoever win it's because people love it. So, even if it's not a personal one I would like I still can be happy for the country.
@@soul4speech583 So very true .
Since I saw Chanel performance she is the winner of many people. Let's hope the prediction comes true. Hugs from Spain ❤️
I hope you end up being right. I would love for Spain and Chanel to win tonight!
There should be another important factor included in the chart ei, diaspora/geography. This affects both jury and televoting. Serbia will be always elevated by former Yugoslavia countries. The same applies to certain extend to Moldova/Romania, Greece/Cyprus, Scandinavia, the Baltics, etc.
Yeah, Lithuania is pretty much guaranteed 12 televotes from Ireland and the UK, and possibly other countries with a lot of Lithuanians (I've heard Norway and Germany have a lot too?). Same goes for Poland.
Agreed..... it's frustrating. Only wish all countries would vote for a great/favourite entry not best buddy countries. I.e. Cyprus could enter a 3 minute fart and Greece will give it 12 points X2 and vice versa.
@@Marzi29 Maybe not 12 but definitely Poland and Lithuania will have a better score in UK/Ireland/Germany than in Montenegro or Macedonia. The weight of votes in UK, France or Germany is much lower than in such small countries like Slovenia, Montenegro, Makedonia, Croatia, Estonia, San Marino….
I try not to bow down to that theory of ‘politics’ playing a massive part in the votes. It might play a small part but overall, in my rankings, I don’t like to include those notions. It feels unfair and could be construed as xenophobic or stereotyping people from certain countries.
Hi Rachel, my predictions 😃:
I am not sure about Spain winning the jury vote. I can see it coming between 11th-15th with the jury and top 5 with the public.
I think the top 7 (not in order) with the jury will be UK, Azerbaijan, Australia, Poland, Greece, Sweden & Italy with Azerbaijan winning the jury vote.
I think the top 5 (not in order) with the public will be Ukraine, Spain, Norway, Moldova & Serbia with Ukraine winning the public vote.
I think there are going to be some big differences between the jury and public scores this year!
Top 10 prediction (not in order): Greece, Italy, Sweden, Ukraine, Spain, Norway, UK, Poland, Serbia, Azerbaijan.
If I had to pick one, I'd say Greece will win! But UK could also do it 🤞🇬🇧👍😃.
Can't wait for the show tonight 😊.
don't agree with that. it's so difficult to dance and sing like that and keep your vocals stable. the performance is she dancing a lot, not just the backup dancers, so the juries, if they are professional singers, know how hard it is. I can see a better result for spain in the juries than in the televote
@@icasteaz91 I can totally see that, absolutely. I imagine though that the public score will be very high for Spain. Not long to go now 😃
So just because I'm that kinda contest nerd, I did a 2nd simulation last night with more knowledge of staging/live shows etc., and using the actual finalists (whereas before I made one with who I believed were more likely to qualify). I tried to use historic voting patterns, general tastes, diaspora, and similarity of styles between each country's song and I had the following results (although I'm sure something's gonna be wrong, a few results seemed a little too high/low, but nothing is impossible):
- Ukraine won in a landslide (possible but maybe I did rank them too highly with juries)
- Greece, UK, Serbia and Sweden respectively rounded up the top 5, bearing in mind just how much momentum was gained with the UK and even Serbia's performance on Thursday. I also think juries will LOVE Greece. Sweden is Sweden.
- Italy, Spain, Czech Republic, Poland and Portugal rounded up the top 10, some of which thanks to juries, some thanks to televote.
- Switzerland is a candidate for a possible televote "nil points", I'm afraid. In my simulation however, it was Germany that got last place overall, and I do think this will happen, unfortunately.
- Netherlands and France do less than people think they will overall, both getting just beneath the top 15.
But here we are, just a few hours away of FINALLY finding out :D :D
Having seen the video now:
- We have similar countries in the bottom 5 (I just have Australia there, and put Belgium and Finland just above them in 19th and 20th respectively (BE saved by juries, FIN by televote).
- Back to Australia, I have them bottom 3, but tbh, if I think about it, that's WAY too low. Still not sure they'll get top 10, but I see why you put them there. Probably gonna be somewhere in the middle.
- Maybe I overrated Romania at 14th, and to a lesser extent Portugal at 10th, oops. But POR is gonna do well with juries again I think, like last year (or perhaps better).
- We're bang on the same re: Moldova, they got top 10 televote, bottom 5 jury, 12th overall. Just thought that was an interesting point to bring up!
- Norway just missed out on top 10 for me, have them 11th, so we sort of agree that they won't be challenging the top 5 at all.
I had very similar predictions.
Except I placed Czech 16. And I stubbornly placed Switzerland in my top 10. Altough there are many facets to use in the calculations, I thought that the emotional aspect of that song would overcome other aspects.
I also had Poland in my top 10, but they ended up 12th.
I had Portugal on 12th place because I was afraid that they wouldn't make it till top 10.
I was going back and forth between the top 5. In one of my "simulations" I placed spain first. In another Sweden.
In the end I chose UK as first.
1. Uk
2. Ukraine
3.Sweden
4. Serbia
5. Spain
6. Italy
7. Moldavia
8. Poland
9. Switserland
10. Norway
11. Greech
12. Portugal
13. Romania
14. Lithuania
15. Estonia
15 Czech Republic
I personally also liked France but knew they would never win. Same goes for Switzerland but the earlier mentioned emotional aspect made it difficult to predict for me.
Personally loved them.
I liked ur analysis btw.
INTJ?
@@Este_Estephania
What a compliment, thanks so much! I sometimes think I write too much, lol. INFJ actually, you were very close :)
You had some predictions that were very close to the real result as well! The top 5 was correct, just in a different order, and quite a few were bang on (Italy, Moldova, Norway, Lithuania e.g.). As for Switzerland, I'm quite sorry I was right about him getting 0 points, but I do see your reasoning about it being a very emotional piece that would normally help it along. He did quite ok with the juries though, 12th place.
I had Italy win another simulation before the final, this was before the momentum for it seemed to have died down. The final time, I think I got it correct at 6th.
And yes, loved France as well, such a shame they ended up 2nd last. I think it was simply overshadowed by the songs that came afterwards, and I was never sure the juries would pick up on it tbh.
Good stuff from you too, bud!
I think Estonia will do better than you think - it's got an anthemic chrous and a distinctive style and it's on last which isn't always great but in this case it means they'll linger in the memory. I don't think the running order has nerfed Romania that much I reckon they were probably on the borderline Qwise and got that slot because they weren't contenders.
I think Sweden might do better than the UK which will be lower in the top ten but you've justified your change. I guess I'm even more cautious because I feel I'm going out on a limb even hoping for the top ten in case it doesn't work out.
If Stefan does better than I thought, I will be pleased :)
I love your videos so much. Great predictions, I agree with many of these
I think top 5 will be Ukraine, Serbia, Sweden, Spain and Greece but idk the order
My personal top 10 is:
1. Spain
2. Sweden
3. Italy
4. UK
5. Serbia
6. Poland
7. The Netherlands
8. Greece
9. Armenia
10. France ( and Estonia)
My top 5 are:
1. Italy
2. Greece
3. Poland
4. Sweden
5. Australia
Like u, I feel Ukraine wont get the first place, bets have placed them on, but I do feel maybe the final will be between Spain and Italy or Spain and UK.
Very interesting! This is my prediction:
1. 🇸🇪 (1st in Jury / 2nd in Televote)
2. 🇺🇦 (3rd in Jury / 1st in Televote)
3. 🇬🇧 (2nd in Jury / 4th in Televote)
4. 🇷🇸 (8th in Jury / 5th in Televote)
5. 🇪🇦 (9th in Jury / 6th in Televote)
6. 🇬🇷 (5th in Jury / 9th in Televote)
7. 🇲🇩 (ignored by Jury / 3rd in Televote)
8. 🇦🇺 (4th in Jury / ignored by Televote)
9. 🇮🇹 (7th in Jury / 10th in Televote)
10. 🇵🇱 (6th in Jury/ 11th in Televote)
🇳🇴, 🇨🇿 and 🇳🇱 will round up the left side of the scoreboard.
I actually think a lot can happen tonight, let's see who ends up winning. It will surely be an amazing show, good luck to all the participants!
Spain will Be higher in jury votes, Serbia lower and Poland lower in televote
I dont think that Sweeden win!
Honestly I have no idea what this year is gonna turn out. It's so unpredictable to me. I am really excited for the upcoming result but at the same time, I am also scared as hell for my favorites.
I hope all the best for my top 5 (Italy, The Netherlands, Sweden, Portugal, and Lithuania) and other entries.
I did the same type of prediction board as you did and here's my prediction with their average results:
1 - Ukraine 9.17
2 - Sweden 8.92
3 - United Kingdom 8.72
4 - Greece 8.40
5 - Spain 8.37
6 - Norway 8.10
7 - Italy 8.06
8 - Australia 7.34
9 - Netherlands 7.21
10 - Poland 7.06
11 - Serbia 6.99
12 - Moldova 6.84
13 - Armenia 6.57
14 - Czech Republic 6.49
15 - Azerbaijan 6.40
16 - Portugal 6.10
17 - Estonia 6.0
18 - Iceland 5.80
19 - Finland 5.5
20 - France 5.44
21 - Lithuania 5.06
22 - Belgium 4.27
23 - Switzerland 4.13
24 - Romania 3.91
25 - Germany 3.86
Eurovision 2022
1.🇸🇪 Sweden
2.🇪🇦 Spain
3.🇺🇦 Ukraine
4.🇬🇧 United Kingdom
5.🇮🇹 Italy
6.🇳🇴 Norway
7.🇳🇱 Netherlands
8.🇦🇺 Australia
9.🇬🇷 Greece
10.🇷🇸 Serbia
11.🇪🇪 Estonia
12.🇫🇮 Finland
13.🇦🇲 Armenia
14.🇦🇿 Azerbaijan
15.🇵🇱 Poland
16.🇨🇭 Switzerland
17.🇱🇹 Lithuania
18.🇫🇷 France
19.🇲🇩 Moldova
20.🇫🇷 France
21.🇷🇴 Romania
22.🇵🇹 Portugal
23.🇧🇪 Belgium
24.🇨🇿 Czech Republic
25.🇩🇪 Germany
Go go go Kalush Orchestra win Eurovision 2022 for the Ukrainian people!
You have Italy in seventh place? The very best song in the competition! ESC is always so depressing, such terrible results year after dreary year. But Italy deserves to win it.
@@user-gd3qk3fu2g Thank you for putting the UK so high. It gives me hope we'll do well and it means so much that non Brits believe in Sam. Slavia Ukraine 🇺🇦 and Go Kalush Orchestra.
@@freemangriffin4953 Two main reasons as to why I put Italy so low though it's my personal winner of this year's contest: If the vocals for both the jury and the public show are not good enough I fear that other songs in the "same category" as Italy are going to stand out more than Italy. My other concern is about the public vote where the public could lower the song to a 6-10th placement (I'm thinking of Moldova - Serbia - Spain - Norway - UK - Ukraine who will probably do better than Italy in term of public score although Italy will have a decent score)
Italy (Mahmood & Blanco) won the Best Lyrics Awards organised by Eurovision 2022.
Last year Maneskin won in the same category before their victory - Eurovision 2021!!! 🇮🇹💚🤍❤️”Brividi” & “Zitti e Buoni”
Hopefully Italy will win again 🇮🇹
@@random-dn2xu I hope! FunFact: I am Italian 🤣 Of course I want it 😍🇮🇹😎 but I think Spain, Norway and Ukraine could win (one of these countries) 🤔
Well Rachel ... you've got some surprises in there. Spain winning - that would be quite something, and I'd happily go along with that. Like you, I really am torn on where to put the UK, because we've become so used to being crap that we have no feel for where we may come with a good song! We have literally forgotten how to win 🙂
I'd completed my finishing order, but then realised that I needed go through it and consider the running order. Watching this video made me realise I'd largely neglected its effect. I mean, Portugal and Norway are going to suffer, despite the song quality. Contrasting fortunes for Netherlands and Moldova. S10 is kind of lost in 11th, while you correctly point out that Moldova are going to wake the TV audience up as they debate going for a pee during Iceland's snooze-fest (I love the song and the band, but people will be flagging by this point).
Anyway, having revisited my list, I have decided that FOR NOW, this is how it goes (it will be adjusted as I watch the live performances, as always):
1. Ukraine (can you imagine if this DOESN'T win?)
2. Sweden
3. United Kingdom (can you imagine if this DOES win?!)
4. Spain
5. Italy
6. Poland
7. Serbia
8. Greece
9. Australia
10. Norway
11. Moldova
12. Czech Republic
13. Estonia
14. Portugal
15. Finland
16. Azerbaijan
17. Armenia
18. France
19. Romania
20. Lithuania
21. Belgium
22. Netherlands (I just realised this is down in 22nd. I may need to adjust this later)
23. Iceland
24. Switzerland
25. Germany
Moldova and the Czech Republic are more wishful thinking than logical thinking, but then why don't I just put Serbia top if I'm going to think like that? This is so HARD this year! Nobody is going to get it 100% right, and that's why I love it. I think I might move S10 up a bit, but not by too much. Maybe five places to replace Armenia in 17th? I have no chuffing idea. Good luck for tonight!
I love the added extras in Sam's spaceman performance
Personally, I think the UK will do better than Spain from the jury’s
Edit: Just adding that I think Spain will do better than the UK on the televote. This is going to be a very close final and it could come down to UK vs Spain in the end.
Might be true…but I don’t it will tank the jury either as music experts should reward her for her on stage performance … she is probably the best performer of the group and it’s not even close…but I do think if Spain does win … it will be due to the public vote…I do think UK could end up like “Nobody But You”… the jury clearly loves it, but it will tank the public vote…
UK will do better in juries, Spain will do better in televoting.
Everything depends on how many points each country receives from their respective positions. Good luck to everyone.
@@rober4 Yeah I completely agree
@@kenisme1000 why should the best dancer win with a base song?
I have seen the live version of Space Man that was uploaded in the Semi Final clip. All I can say is, WOW. The staging and lighting is FANTASTIC. From 2:00 on the song it just gets better and better, moving from one level to another. We've got a really good one this time. Our chances of doing well are much higher. We shouldn't expect first place because of Ukraine but we've gotta give him credit when credit is due. Sam Ryder's aims are to change attitudes of people within the UK towards Eurovision. He is just the beginning and I've got to say it's an AMAZING beginning. I will say I won't be surprised if we do end up better than this as I was absolutely GOBSMACKED when I saw the live version. Is this even us anymore?!a
I think it will go better with people who never listened to the song.
First listening I was surprised by Rachel's judgment about it.
The second time I would have been even harsher than her.
To me so, so repetitive.
As only songs which stay in your mind after one listen and are predictable in the melody can be.
Ok, if THIS happen, as a spanish/italian remix ancestry 😂 I'm going to gift you a fabulous spanish serrano ham, not only by these predictions, cause I know as me you're team Amanda too, but for all the work you did these weeks, bringing us honest information about the contest. So, mark this comment, there is a ham potentially in the air 😊😊
Could we make it a cheese instead because I’m actually vegetarian 🥰
@@ThePeaceAround yeahofcourse, we have some good ones here. Whether Chanel wins or Sam does, you will be rewarded. Best wishes for UK too.
netherlands clear top 10, poland under the top 5, finland surely around 15th place at least (will have massive help from the rocker community); i really agree with your top 3
Go Italy 🎼 I think you can do it again (I'm sure you Ukraine will do it later tonight and not just because of the song but because they're at war and that's pretty rough because you don't relate an ESC song to politics or to that what is happening in the country right now ) thanks ThePeaceAround for the video.😁
Not too sure about Spain's televote. Despite all the glitz, she only got about 4% of the televote in the national final, losing comfortably to a political and a message-heavy song. So if it gets to 150+ televote points, it's a victory already
I consider the performance given to us that represents the grand final show is so much better than the one from the Spanish National Final.
Hm. Your prediction is really interesting. When I first watched Chanel’s live perfomance, I said to myself: she’s gonna win, even though it’s not my favorite song or artist from this year. But also I think Ukraine is the favorite one to win tonight as well. Yeah. We have pretty amazing artists tonight, it’s kinda hard to know what is gonna happen. I look forward to seeing all of this! Exciting! 😊
Wow gracias from Spain. Although I’m not a fan of the song, the job Chanel has done it’s amazing and I understand why it might be the winner. Also rooting for my lovely UK with Sam and S10 from the Netherlands 🇳🇱🇬🇧🇪🇸
Impressed with predictions
We all know that Ukraine will win this year, and we all know why (I'm not saying that Ukraine doesn't have a good song because they HAVE a good song)... I'm saying that other reasons will contribute to its winning besides the fact of having a good song. Even if Freddie Mercury magically appeared in Turin tonight and would compete with a song, he still wouldn't win! This year the competition in front of Ukraine is irrelevant....
I totally agree - in fact, I think the main weakness of Eurovision is due to the lack of an exclusive and thorough attention to artistic quality factors, and just that, at the contest.
Yes, but i thing that's not fair!
I’m not 100% sold on that idea. I think 60% odds on winning is just far too high - it’s suggesting that Ukraine will win with a landslide 800 points!? I don’t believe that will happen. We’ll see
Jury won't allow that I guess, the press polls put Ukraine 11th place already, which signals what's coming
Imagine trying to host in Ukraine…I don’t think they will let that happen …
Thank you from Spain I think in the position we are in it will be the best day of my life but if we win even more
I feel that Germany's song vocals should be higher. He is super consistent and clean. I am Romanian but I can relate so much to that song - I really hope it will do well ;-;
Vote for cute Malik and his song 🙂
Agreed .
Interesting analysis. I'm skeptical of weight running order at the same level as song and voice. Don't think it matter so much. And I also think that you, among many, think that Italy will get many points from juries. But we will see tonight. Wish you a Great Eurovision evening! 🤩
Hi Rachel! I wanted to say that you briefly appeared on the news of the main tv channel in Italy (rai1)!
Wow! 💕💕💕
Could people knock it off with voting Ukraine in Eurovision? I mean I support Ukraine even with military troops, and I'm a Leftist (believing in the power of collaboration (Human Spirit) instead of the power of competition (Natural Selection)), BUT: this indeed is a Competition (for fun, without serious negative consequences), and here the morality of Competition applies (its immoral to help a competitor out of pity).
Not saying Ukraine's song is bad, but its not no.2 for goodness sake..
I hope that the best song and the best performance will win tonight and that people only will vote for musical reasons!
My personal top 2: 1. Italy 2. Greece.
Because I think these three vocalists can build careers worldwide.
Let's be honest, most ESC winners get forgotten within a few years.
Thank you for your predictions! I think the second place for Ukraine will be perfect! I don't really like the comments like "oh, they have a pity victory". I just don't think this is fair. We don't need pity, we need strength and support. This is only a song contest, and Ukrainians didn't want the war to happen to win Eurovision.
OK... I think this could be very accurate. A shame about France and the Netherlands... Portugal too, but I get why. Hoping both are higher. Iceland in 18th could be a tad high but I wouldn't mind that. Czechs should absoultely be up there. Moldova, in a sea of ballads, could be one to watch. The top ten looks fairly similar to mine. Norway could be higher if the public mark is very high indeed. I'm not sure about Poland 5th but their score will be high. Spain winning is a big call, especially as the juries may not have this top three which I think would be necessary, but you never know...
Thanks again Rachel I really enjoyed watching this and although I haven’t made my own prediction for who will finish exactly where on the top 25 as you have, the general placings that you have chosen Id roughly agree with.
I don’t personally think Spain can win it. It seems possible that they could come 2nd because she performs the song extremely well.
But I just cannot see it overtaking Ukraine. The political push is bound to give Ukraine an overall landslide.
It shouldn’t be that way but Eurovision and politics can never be fully divorced unfortunately.
I think Sweden and Serbia could also push into the top 5.
Im less confident that Poland will make the top 5 despite his outstanding vocal.
He may even miss the top 10 if he was very unlucky.
I think that Czech Republic may have got into the top 10 has they not been first in the running order. That disappointed me because I just think either people are still boiling their kettles when the first song comes on, or it may not stay as fresh in their minds after a full 25 songs.
But top 10 for Czech, still possible.
Also, I think people have missed a trick with Switzerland.
I’m certain he will come higher than the bottom 5. I’m just not sure where.
possibly 10-15th but it’s even possible he could actually break into the top 10 in my own opinion.
For me this is the dark horse of the show.
And I may be proved wrong on this.
It’s just that for me I can connect to the song on an emotional level and for me that’s what quality music is.
For many young people quality music means getting up to dance and enjoying the beat, and they don’t as often look for the emotional connection. That’s why some have berated The Swiss entry unfairly.
And I get it. They are young and perhaps look for something different in music.
I’m not old, I’m just 39. But I can see that for me Switzerland is a great song and he performs it with a touch of magic. His vocal is great and different.
I can see the juries been right behind it.
Will the public?
I don’t know. I think they may vote for this more than people expect.
It’s a dark horse in my own opinion.
But I could be proved wrong too.
All I know is that it’s a great song.
Sorry my messages have gone on this long it’s just, I’m a man of many words when it comes to Eurovision. I’m such an enthusiast for it Rachel. :)
Hope your right!! Im spanish :D
But I would be so happy if Sam wins. Im gonna be voting for him, he is my favorite :)
And if we dont win, I hope is Uk.
And even if we do win, hope for second or thrid place for Sam. Is soo good!!
Best of luck to you tonight
Thanks for the prediction and I hope it accomplish ( I'm from Spain)
Sam Ryder should get some additional points for social media presence. As we know nowadays this factor can influence every election or voting 😮
thank you for this excellent run-down. I too think the betting odds are inflated. I have had one concern with the Spain entry- to me it seemed that Europe was not in a sassy mood/sexy mood in the semis. They seem to have stayed away from those songs that either had that kind of staging or had that kind of lyrics (Achille Lauro, Albania, Ireland) and Chanel is very much like that. I hope I am wrong because she definitely is bringing it.
For me, Lithuania, Iceland, Portugal, France, if they do their work well, they can win. Czech Republic too. Sweden possibly can win too. Surprisely for me, possible can win Poland too. Never we could imagine, someone from Poland can finally win but it is possible.
Why do you think that Poland never could win?
@@julitaropiak6763 Czytaj ze zrozumieniem... nie piszę o tym, że nigdy nie wygra, tylko że żadnemu Polakowi się nie śniło nigdy, że będziemy mieć kiedykolwiek szansę na wygraną.
@@silugedejchan3812 mi się śniło🙂..a serio to życzę mu jak najlepiej i jest najlepszy, ale pewnie wygra Ukraina
I am hoping S10 finishes in the Top 10. You said that you knocked it down for the language barrier but you also rank Italy, Spain, and Ukraine quite high even though those songs are ALSO in native languages.
Yeah of course, but I think Italy/Spain/Ukraine brought better staging than Netherlands. I of course hope S10 finishes in the top 10 as well!
@@ThePeaceAround I think the final will be interesting too with all of them being back to back to back.
Thank you for the forecasts. Let's see what happens, it will be a battle. Meanwhile, my heart is pumping in anticipation of Måneskin's performance!
I totally agree with you about Sam. (I’m Irish born but British bred btw) I’m so used to both Ireland and the UK getting destroyed, so I’m expecting us to finish like 12th, but really hope that we win 🤣🤣
Not my predictions, my picks:
The finalists for this year's Eurovision Song Contest have been revealed. Here is my completely subjective top 25 for this year. My winner is my OVERWHELMING choice, as I think it is the very best song of 2022, period!:
1. ITALY, Mahmoud & Blanco, "Brividi"
2. POLAND, Ochman, "River"
3. LITHUANIA, Monika Liu, "Sentimental"
4. SWITZERLAND, Marius Bear, "Boys Do Cry"
5. NETHERLANDS, S10, "De diepte"
6. PORTUGAL, Maro, "Saudade, saudade"
7. FRANCE, Alvan and Ahez, "Fulenn"
8. ARMENIA, Rosa Linn, "Snap"
9. SWEDEN, Cornelia Jakobs, "Hold Me Closer"
10. GREECE, Amanda Georgiadi Tenfjord, "Die Together"
11. ICELAND, Systur, "Meo haekkandi sol"
12. ESTONIA, Stefan, "Hope"
13. SERBIA, "Konstrakta, "In capore sano"
14. ROMANIA, WRS, "Llamame"
15. UKRAINE, Kalush Orchestra, "Stefania"
16. SPAIN, Chanel, 'Slo Mo"
17. UNITED KINGDOM, Sam Ryder, "Space Man"
18. AZERBAIJAN, Nadir Rustami, "Fade To Black"
19, BELGIUM, Jeremie Makiese, "Miss You"
20. FINLAND, The Rasmus, "Jezebel"
21. CZECH REPUBLIC, We Are Domi, "Lights Off"
22. GERMANY, Malik Harris, "Rockstars"
23. AUSTRALIA, Sheldon Riley, "Not The Same"
24. NORWAY, Subwoofer, "Give That Wolf a Banana"
25. MOLDOVA, (blanking out on the name of their atrocity)
So so excited for the final! Love your ranking and how you put so much thought into it all ❤️
Your likability rises with every video you make. It's so fun that you try to come up with a formula to determine their final positions. :)
Past is prologue. Just like Jamala defeated Dami in 2016, Kalush will out score the rest. This is an even bigger moment; expect more countries with near zero scores this year. I’m here for Sam’s silver medal. 🥈
I’ll be sad if there are multiple zero’s this year. If the televote has pulled one way, it won’t be fair on the other artists for sure
This is going to be a real bloodbath. This year we don't have a clear winner, the quality is high so little details can cost many positions.
I really hope that Ukraine doesn't win, not only because it's not the best song but also because it would really awkward. I simply can't imagine any discussion about Ukraine hosting or interviews...
I'm not sure about Spain winning, last year all pop/dancing acts were slayed by both public and jury, I have the feeling Spain could be a shock for many. I'm really not sure, but my 2 cents, considering the running order and the staging, go on UK. My hearth stays with Portugal and Greece
Btw it's going to be tough for me too, the here starts at 2:00 am, but I want to see it live
Thank you so much from Spain!!!🙏🙏🙏
Be objective. The best and interesting performances this year are in Ukraine and Serbia.
OOH SIS I HOPE YOU ARE RIGHT 🥰🥰👏🏼🇪🇸👑
My top 5
1. Sweden 🇸🇪
2. Spain 🇪🇸
3. Greece 🇬🇷
4. Serbia 🇷🇸
5. UK 🇬🇧
Very interesting video!!!
We actually have very similar predictions of the results. Here's what I'm suspecting might happen in the contest:
1. Ukraine
2. Italy
3. UK
4. Spain
5. Sweden
6. Poland
7. Greece
8. Serbia
9. Norway
10. Czech Republic
11. The Netherlands
12. Australia
13. Moldova
14. Portugal
15. France
16. Lithuania
17. Estonia
18. Armenia
19. Azerbaijan
20. Finland
21. Switzerland
22. Belgium
23. Iceland
24. Romania
25. Germany
A few things I disagree on (perhaps controversially for a few of them) with a few predictions as well:
-Spain will be lower with juries than televote (around 8th, though I can see higher)
-Poland will also score higher with televote but not by much
-Greece will finish outside of the top 10 with televote
-Serbia will be top 5 with televote
-Australia will finish bottom 10 with televote
-France will be top 10 with televote but low with juries
-Lithuania will get a better televote than expected (around 50+ points)
-Romania will finish almost last with juries (Moldova will save absolute last though)
-Germany, Switzerland and maybe Belgium will get 0 points from televote
What??? Ukraine???
@@aaronespx282 I feel like the televote will have them number one by at least 50 points and the jury will put them top 5, giving them a finish of first
My 2022 winner is UK. Sam is amazing.👑
1:18 - 1:31 Thank you so much for saying this big TRUTH. I've seen people saying "If the song is good, it can overcome their running order and win". No, that's not true. Since the introduction of the televote, the winning song that performed the earliest was Turkey's in 2003 (4th) and then Israel's in 1998 (8th). And both of them won by a minimum margin of points in a nerve-wracking final voting. Also, Turkey only won by 1 point and diaspora helped them win, objectively. If Malta had had the same exact song and performance, the result would have been diferent...
And in these last 19 years, all winning songs have performed either in the privileged area of the first half (10th-13th) or in the second half (not at the very beginning). So that says too much.
The only scenario in which I can see a song winning, despite being drawn 1st-5th in the running order, is if juries gave it a landslide victory that could make up for the poor result it would later receive in the televoting (and that is not happening this year)
Let's go Spain 🇪🇦
My prediction results are
Top 3 and as for these 3 al 3 are just phenomenal and i will be happy eith either 3 winning i'm rooting for Armenia i think the song the performance and over all staging and delivery is a whole other level above the rest and i-? Really hopefull
1- Armenia
2- Spain
3 -Greece
Top 5 i think these are great songs i think Norway has entertainment factor on lock i think they'll do very welll in the televote jury could go either way. And as for Uk i'm going in with the traditional expect the worst hope for the best strategy i think it's a really good overall song and if it makes it to top 5 i think it will be very well deserved.
4- Norway
5- United kingdom
Upper top 10 i was really suprised by these 2 espeacially poland i think they both dkne exceptionally well and it's getting to the point where these are the songs that are sticking in my head more and more
6 - Romania
7 - Poland
Lower top 10 i think these 3 will do really well the vocals where on point the backing music was really good for them i just think compared to the rest of the top 10 they might be a little forgettable in the long run
8- Azerbajian
9 - Estonia
10- Czech republic
High mid tier i thought all 5 where fairly decent and i can see doing fairly well but not quite top 10 level well
11 - Germany
12- Finland
13 - Belgium
14 - Italy
15 - France
Middle tier i feel with both this tier and the lower mid tier they're just Safe i'm not in love but i' not hating and if they place anywhere round where i've placed them it wont be offensive in anyway
16- Australia
17 - Sweden
Lower mid tier
18 - Ukraine
19 - Iceland
20 - Moldova
Bottom 5 i felt the least connection with these songs over all i thought Netherlands and Portugal espeacially have given much better performances in latter years this for me just felt quite flat.
21- Lithuania
22 - Portugal
23 - Serbia
24 - Switzerland
25 - The Netherlands
Thank you for your analysis, I think you have the top 3 nailed, just in which order is in the lap of the gods, i backed Spain 6/1 each way betting without Ukraine, which looks a free play .Thanks again for all your effort.
Picking up a winner is difficult because we do have many different music genres. Personal preferences are therefore leading the ranking. Overall I do believe that Finland will do much better than your ranking. It’s definitely a top 10. UK has more chances of Spain to win this, but none of the 2 will make it. Tonight is the night of Ukraine (and not because of the war) having Sweden and Italy as main contenders. My personal view
It would definitely be "because of the (proxy) war". That song is meh. Italy deserves to win.
@@freemangriffin4953 Italy can win if the performance is perfect and they manage to share with others the meaning and the emotions of their songs. Re their performance I am a bit worried about them being a bit tired since they are are touring around. Re Ukraine (as last year) I do like the mix between folk music and modern one (this year rap and previous year electronic). Voice and performance are entertaining. Having said that there are at least 5 potential winners all deserving to win
Agree with a lot of your assertions! Ukraine in second for me as well. In the end, I think the lucky number of the night is 17. That is, I believe the running order will play a huge part in the outcome, and it’ll be Greece rising to the top for a shocking win. Spain in third, with Poland and Sweden rounding out the top five
Sam is definitely my personal favorite!
Yesssss Spain🇪🇦🥇
I think Spain this year has the full package, you mentioned them all,..
Honestly this is like 2017.
Maro’s Song is just like Salvador Sobral’s Song.
Much less is much more in a Song with some beautiful Guitar Chords and an Indie style that reminds me of London Grammar and Mariana’s voice even sounds like Hannah Reid.
So unless Carnival arrived at Eurovision I think that Portugal will win.
I think Ukraine will win.
Firstly, it's gonna win the televote by a landslide (potentially the first entry to reach 400 points in one of the votings); I think in a normal situation, televoting would place them around the 4th/5th place. But given the current context, it's also going to receive many votes of "moral support" (specially, from the non-eurovision public and displaced ukranians across Europe).
Secondly, it may not finnish in the juries' top 5, but it's gonna do well: I can already see many juries being biased and giving them high scores (Georgia, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Moldova, etc. [basically all the countries which are close to the war] and western juries may also give them votes as moral support). Realistically speaking, in a normal situation, juries would place this around 18th.
They've also been given the best spot in the 1st half, so that says enough. It will secure them even more votes from the televoting.
Also, thank you for your words about Spain's entry. However, I think it's pretty safe to say either UK or Sweden have won the jury voting. As for Spain, I don't know how they must have placed her. Either decently well, but not in the top 5; or badly. And I'm concerned about that :(. I doubt conservative juries have placed Chanel well, specially after considering she performed between Italy and The Netherlands (two jury-friendly songs)
Regarding the televoters, I think Chanel can do really well, but maybe 3rd (Ukraine performing 2 spots afterwards can affect her a bit). Serbia will most likely come 2nd (it has a very good running order)
Of course Ukraine will win !!!!! Sympathy support voting for a so so forgettable entry .... The history books will say 2022!!!! Wow!!!! Why??? Really!!!!! Next year I can't wait.....
Spain is gonna do very well in The juries. That's almost a fact at this point now. Televising will decide the winner after the massive amount of points given to Ukraine
@@rober4 I hope so ☀️
@@kenneththom9165 I know. It is even more frustrating because their song wouldn't be a worthy winner, and as such, in a normal situation, it wouldn't have a possibility to win. I'm afraid this is gonna affect the contest's reputation
@@xander2609 How right you were...... anyway a good competition I loved it......I always do. Next year should be interesting!!!!!
I don't really understand why people see Belgium so weak this year.
In my opinion, this is one of the most contemporary songs this year, with good vocals and a solid performance.
My hot take: Belgium will end up on the left side of the scoreboard.
I think Spain will get televote love but idk if she will get a lot of love from the jury because it’s not lyrically or musically interesting. It also is the only song with a dance break in it… which is cute but songs like this usually haven’t been rewarded by juries.
There's never been a PERFORMANCE like this. Not even Fire by Eleni Foureira comes close to what she does, and that was 2nd and it's still regarded as one of the best Eurovision moments in history.
Hope you're right. It's awful.
The countries I would disagree with you the most are Poland (I see it around 10th with the cheesiest/campiest effects of the night), Czech Rep (around 15th for me), Netherlands (8th-10th), Moldova (around 15th), Ukraine (landslide winner), Portugal (bottom 5, maybe the most impacted by running order). Additionally, I have a feeling that Romania and Lithuania will end within the bottom 5, switching places with Azerbaijan and Belgium. We'll see what happens tonight!
In my opinion Romania will be in top 10/ max top 15 because people love the song....but we will see
Agreed. Poland’s visual effects are breaking my heart almost as much as there are triggering my epilepsy.
@@hippopotamusbosch i actually like the effects, it really adds something to the song somehow
@@jimskeuh I respect that. 💛
God please listen to her words ! we need that Spain win !
Dear Rachel! Your prediction made me so, so happy! I wish so much that your prediction became reality!! I have loved Spain's entry from the very first moment and I am almost rooting for it and I will celebrate it so much if Spain is gonna win tonight!! But still I feel kind of intimidated by the bookmaker's prediction of an overall win for Ukraine. I really hope, they got it wrong this year(although only once back in 2016, they did not predict the winner). I think Lithuania will finish higher than you predict, somewhere in the upper middle section, because this song stands out a lot, I think UK is going to end in the lower top 10 and I really think, Greece will do slightly besser than Sweden, because it is overall a fast perfect entry which will appeal both to juries and the audience a lot. And I think Armenia will finish lower than in your prediction. Well let's see what happens tonight, good luck to all the countries, may the best song win, and let's celebrate tonight another ESC!
📊 10 points for using rubrics
Who'd wanna be the King..... Ochman didn't expect but he is already King
of Eurovision Poland.......@@@@@ Vote for Poland @@' 23 @@@ Love from Poland @@@ Good luck @@@
I agree that Spain is the best and most professional proposal this year form an artistic/musical viewpoint. Because of this, it should win. However, I have doubts that it will win. There are extra musical factors that play a role at the ESC, unfortunately. Thank you so much for your analyses. They are always very good and I have learned from you over the weeks.
Really? People think that drecky song from Spain deserves to win instead of Italy? Oh brother!
@@freemangriffin4953 You are legitimated to dislike SloMo, but your choice of adjective is dead wrong - Drecky (poor quality and little value) is not something that can be applied to that song. Next time say something of more substance, please, and try to separate your personal taste form the objective attributes of what you are judging. Put differently - just think that you don't need to ruin your personal taste statements with derogatory comments towards what you do not like. Thanks, and kind regards from New York City.
@@freemangriffin4953 I don't get it either. I see nothing of quality there except the dancing, and even that is marred by the bare butt shaking up a storm.
all in random order...
Top 5: UK, Sweden, Serbia, Spain, Italy/Poland
6-10: Poland/Italy, Ukraine, Australia, Greece, Netherlands/Czech Republic
11-15: Czech Republic/Netherlands, France, Norway, Estonia, Finland
16-20: Belgium, Portugal, Iceland, Azerbaijan, Armenia/Germany
21-25: Germany/Armenia, Switzerland, Lithuania, Romania, Moldova
Well if we set as a criteria that you hit rankings if thery are +-2 of what your model predicted, your prediction is 11/25 or 44% accuracy :) nevertheless i enjoyed your video and analysis :)
I think its going to be a close race between Ukraine, the UK, and Sweden. i don't think Spain is a contender even for Top 5
I will be ill if Spain wins. There is nothing the least bit unique in the song, no quality in the lyrics whatsoever, and staging and dancing should not win a song contest.
Interesting forecast.
I sincerely hope you are wrong about the winner, though.
nice video but I disagree...you have too high Spain in jury voting...first???..no way..top 5 maybe..also you have too high overall Poland and Italy....top 10 sure but not so easy top 5....we will see tonight...
my top 5:
1. Ukraine
2. UK
3. Spain
4. Sweden
5. Serbia
Wow Rachel u're a master of the statistics…nice netherlands televote is so different.
Ukraine i think a bit exagerate but it is my opinions….just the only one who doesn't like Poland's voice it's me? haha ... which I actually think is not that the voice is not beautiful, it is beautiful, but in my opinion it is not good for that song.
10 then I find it just exaggerated regardless, Poland for me voice is 7.5 and the song 9.5, if you make a comparison with the voice of Greece, why did it only take 7 then? just agree with staging.
incredible Spain, this result amazes me a little.
Good job Rachel
I don't like the Poland song / voice - final result either.
@@mihaitzan u agree with me about voice good, i dont fel alone XD
SPAIN will definitely win this year. I wish the UK had a better staging.
Spain is not a jury friendly song
To my opinion australia must not be at top 10. Chech republic must be 10. Also united kingdom must be 5th and poland 4th. Greece 6th and and sweden 7th. Netherlands must be higher. As for the winner i like more ukraine than spain. Keep up the good work!!!! My top 5 songs are (Greece, Ukraine, Netherlands, Poland,Serbia)
no way spain 10 jury and vocals 9
i mean cmon good song maybe it win but lets be honest
I think that Belgium is doing better tonight on stage
just like Space man is good on stage
Australia brings it better in Turin
Sweden is like it is, very best 😄
Italy also good
and who's gonna win 😏 have also good luck
the country 😐
Just b4 voting, my ideal top-10
1. Ukraine
2. Greece
3. The Netherlands
4. Portugal
5. Serbia
6. UK
7.Lithuania
8. Italy
9. Armenia
10. Poland.
Brividi is my fav song! But I think Ukraine will have a lot of votes!
La cosa certa è che tutti guarderanno la finale per vedere i maneskin
And, if I may, here is a humble suggestion for the future of the ESC - get the best possible professional juries - the best - and give the jury vote about 2/3 of the total, not just 50% as it is now. Personal tastes by televoters are fine, but they do not necessarily reflect a concern for, or an understanding of, artistic/musical quality ... No need to democratize absolutely everything in life. I believe in expert knowledge - and these days we desperately need expert knowledge in many realms of life, including music contests. I say this kindly and respectfully.
In 2015 the jury decided to give the trophy to Sweden's Heroes over Il Volo's Grande Amore that haven't even finished second.
Also, last year, the jury gave to Finland or Ukraine less points than to songs like the ones from Netherlands or Bulgaria. In 2019 the jury winner was North Macedonia. In 2018, the jury winner was Austria and the list goes on.
Historically the jury actually had the tendency to politically as well - and there is way more variance in jury votes than in televoting votes actually.
I strongly disagree with your opinion. I believe million of votes should matter at least as much as the votes of 5 representatives of each country. If let's say there are 100k votes in a country, than the vote of only one jury matters even more than the vote of 20k people already - mainly because they can distribute their points across multiple songs - and this is already very far from "democracy". In a country, you can have 500k votes for a winner and 10k points for the second place and then 490k mean nothing.
Also, how do you even quantify the artistical or musical quality of a song - how do you differentiate between 2 songs that are really good, if not in a subjective way - this is not a competition about an exact science where all the experts would agree upon the same idea - where their expertise would be way more valuable than the ones of a way higher number of randoms.
@@mihaitzan 1/3 for televote is millions of votes. You can disagree. Good bye.
I might spontaneously combust if Spain win, Chanel deserves it so much and Spanish Eurovision fans have been waiting so long to win again and on their own and not with accusations of rigging. Please vote España 🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸
❤️🇪🇦 thank you
I think Poland will be much lower. It will score less in jury voting. Historically it has never been qualified to the Grand Final by jury vote. (Never in first 10).
Opposite to Australia that it is always favoured by jury. This year I am amfraid that Sheldon will flop completely in televoting.
Idk I’m convinced Poland will be high up! When people heard his vocals for the first time on Thursday, they immediately said ‘winner vibes’ and ‘wow awesome voice’. Reckon that will translate to votes
Vote for Konstrakta 💖
Top 25 prediction (J=jury, T=televote)
1: Sweden J: 2nd T: 3rd
2: Ukraine 6th 1st
3: Italy J: 1st T: 6th
4: UK J: 3rd T:4th
5: Spain J: 5th T: 2nd
6: Norway J: 10th T: 5th
7: Greece J: 7th T: 8th
8: Serbia J: 11th T: 7th
9: Poland J: 9th T: 9th
10: Netherlands J: 8th T: 11th
11: Australia J: 4th T: 17th
12: Portugal J: 13th T: 12th
13: Czech republic J: 15th T: 15th
14: France J: 20th T: 10th
15: Azerbaijan J: 12th T: 19th
16: Finland J: 18th T: 13th
17: Estonia J: 19th T: 14th
18: Armenia J: 17th T: 16th
19: Lithuania J: 16th T: 20th
20: Switzerland J: 14th T: 24th
21: Moldova J: 23rd T: 18th
22: Iceland J: 22nd T: 21st
23: Belgium J: 21st T: 23rd
24: Romania J: 25th T: 22nd
25: Germany J: 24th T: 25th
I don't get why you all like Spain so much. The chorus is not much of a melodic/harmonic excellence, not even rhythmic. The lyrics idea is as shallow as it gets, and the staging is inflated with bikinis, which is the cheapest way to grab attention.
I'm not saying I don't like the whole thing, just that this shouldn't not be no.1. Personally I like Estonia, Poland, etc
Yes to all of this.
Must to win a cheerful song that will take everything out of you. The song of 🇲🇩🇲🇩🇲🇩🇲🇩🇲🇩 M O L D O V A 🇲🇩🇲🇩🇲🇩🇲🇩is unique and special. Winner!!