@@nashmonti120 Gulf South Conference is out of compliance for having football. They will be down to 5 schools. Any NAIA schools would be too small with hardly any money to even move up. There have been reports of Delta State and Southland Conference talking.
I think there will be a trade or sorts coming soon between the ACC and Big 12. I understand the financial and competitive implications, but eventually, everyone is going to get tried with going back and forth Coast to Coast. I heard some rumors that they are considering bringing some long-distance ACC games to Dallas to alleviate travel. Cincinnati, WVU, and UCF should be in the ACC. Stanford, Cal, and SMU should go to the Big 12. Geographically it makes sense. Doing so will reignite more favorable rivalries within each conference.
With SMU leaving the American, there is talk of ARMY joining as a Football-only member just like NAVY. The American would likely add a non-football school just as they did with Wichita State. I wonder how St. Louis University (Private) would make a case to move from the Atlantic-10 to the American Athletic Conference. Note AAC member Memphis plays Missouri in the Dome at America's Center in St. Louis, MO on September 23, 2004.
I'm not sure Saint Louis would be interested. The A-10 works for them because they look to the northeast for many of their students. Saint Louis also hasn't done as well in basketball. Dayton might be a more viable target as Xavier is just simply too close to them for the Big East to consider them. That said, 13 for basketball isn't as problematic as an odd number is in football.
Can you do a breakdown of what yesterday's lawsuit filed by OSU and WSU against the Pac-12 means? And then breakdown what the implications are with the Pac-12/Mountain West reverse merger for the new Pac-12 conference. What kind of assets would the conference have? Would the conference still be able to keep a lot of the privileges they have in the NCAA versus the existing G5 conferences? Do you believe the leavers in the Pac-12 will be able to get any of the assets and reserves of the conference even though they didn't vote to dissolve the conference before they announced their departures to other conferences? All of this is extremally interesting, we've never see a Power 5 essentially collapse like this, very much uncharted waters.
I know one thing the law is on on OSU and WSU side because when USC and UCLA announce to moving to a new conference they were immediately removed from the board. The same thing should of happen to all the other schools.
Ok so i deleted previous post bc i asked before finishing vid, but then it wasn’t answered. When you made the realignment prediction vid you said P2 could backfill/merge and keep cfp autobid, what changed in your opinion?
ACC taking Cal/Stanford/SMU (which I didn't see at all - ACC expansion was reportedly dead at the time). This overhauled the dynamics: A rebuilt Pac-12 needed a core of Pac-4/SMU/SDSU to entice schools to pay $17+ million in exit fees. But with Cal/Stanford/SMU off the board, WSU/OSU don't bridge the value gap enough (financially...but also location & academically) for schools to pay $17+ million for a league with no media deal in 10 months.
Do you think Pac-2 reaches out to the better half of mountain west schools + westernmost top aac schools to rebuild, or do they jump ship after the 2 year grace period (if not earlier)? If the former, do you see those schools accepting? Part of me sees why the schools would prefer stability and not gambling the $17m exit fee, but the other part thinks why wouldn’t some of the top remaining G5 schools not want to join together alongside two power five caliber programs in WSU and OSU? It would be a lot like how the Big xii rebounded except a lot more G5 heavy, but still similar
@@jackmcenery1444 I think the Pac-2 will definitely reach out and attempt to rebuild. Their targets, IMO: MWC (6): CSU, AFA, Boise, UNLV, Fresno, SDSU AAC (4): Memphis, Tulane, Rice, UTSA It's just very hard to see it coming together, logistically or financially. Realignment has shown schools love to leave behind others they deem "lesser", but this timeline and circumstances are unprecedented. There's no media deal, the market is as dead as ever, they'd have to pay $17+ M for a marginal increase in media revenue -- and all of this (rebuilding a whole conference, negotiating a deal) has to be done ASAP. Unless everyone has the patience to delay it a year, too many stars have to align.
Pac-12 would still trigger the grace period by being below 7 active Division I members, but they could keep an automatic bid for basketball by getting to six for the 2024-25 and 2025-26 seasons. They could add Seattle, Grand Canyon, Utah Valley, and California Baptist. If they were really desperate for a seventh member, Chicago State would be available. The more rational alternative would be to find a Big Sky school willing to either drop football (Portland State?) or play football in the UAC (Northern Colorado). The PAC 12 could take a lot of programs that are affiliates with the WAC in various sports like Sacramento State in baseball and UNLV, Air Force, and San Diego State in men's soccer. Ironically if this happens the WAC would be down to seven, but as of 2024 all of its members would be active Division members. If UTRGV would play a WAC FCS schedule in 2024, the WAC would have six FCS members without any affiliates. Of course the WAC can assume the UAC for NCAA compliance purposes, then the ASUN schools can break off once they have enough for an autobid themselves.
I don't think OSU/WSU have any interest in bringing in WAC schools. It'll be a Pac-12/Mountain West reverse merger where the Mountain West votes to dissolve their conference and OSU and WSU invite them en masse to the Pac-12. This allows the Pac-12 to retain their NCAA tournament credits in the tens of millions and they can negotiate a new TV deal with CBS/FOX who currently have the Mountain West TV deal. Likely ESPN would be interested in an after dark slot with this new reformed Pac-12 as well.
UConn, SDSU, Memphis, and USF make the most sense. Cincy isn’t going to want to leave B12. Out of that 4, UConn and Memphis offer the most financially in terms of tv deals, but at the same time, access to southern cal could be huge down the line. UConn would be a buy low basketball play with the potential to get a strong football program to grow for cheap. USF would be a play made many years from now as they are finally investing in their athletics at a level of a school pursuing P5 just now. The appeal of Memphis would be in basketball mainly since their football program has declined dramatically, but perhaps reigniting the louisville rivalry could bring some booster power back to that program despite AAC apathy lurking in the corner. Rice just doesn’t have the booster power SMU does despite the schools wealth, AND they have massive academic restrictions. Tulane is like if SMU didn’t have booster power and was in a market the fraction the value of Dallas.
@@Spitfirethedragon good luck to them getting out any time before 2030 lol. We’re talking about hundreds of millions of dollars they’d have to pay, which would put them far more in a hole than the amount of extra money they’d earn from being higher up. I expect things to ultimately really go down around the time the new members finally receive their full shares in 2033 then there’s no extra money for the top programs, but even then, they have to have a place to actually go, and the big 12 isn’t going to have any more money for them than what the ACC has to offer, so outside of the few select schools in Miami, FSU, UNC, Clemson(I am NOT buying the hype that Virginia would draw the interest of the B10/SEC as Virginia is not a popular program and this isn’t 2013 anymore, and the sec has already shown willingness to add teams in states they already have in the case of texas) who *might* have a B10/SEC shot, the rest are going to have to stick it out and backfill with G5’s later, just like what the big 12 did. Then, and only then, will seismic realignment finally take a break until we see conferences breaking away from the NCAA. The ACC is going to have to move fast if teams do decide to break away before the GOR ends, whenever that is, because they need to exercise that pro rata to death to ensure the new schools get as much time in national prominence with the ACC deal before the next one comes, so that they can boost their relevance. Memphis would easily be the diciest move of this bunch if USF’s long term investments pay off, but they still spend a lot. Keep in mind too for UConn that they already earn money at the floor or above of the ACC financially. They could drop right in at any time, especially with them being back on top of basketball.
West Georgia announced they are going to D1 and joining ASUN conference next year.
Was about to say the same thing
I wonder if Valdosta state will follow west Georgia to d1
@@nashmonti120 Gulf South Conference is out of compliance for having football. They will be down to 5 schools. Any NAIA schools would be too small with hardly any money to even move up. There have been reports of Delta State and Southland Conference talking.
@@nashmonti120 yeah it’s going to take time but they do have potential
@@SpitfirethedragonI think the Gulf South should look to D3 schools to rebuild it's league Birmingham Southern point University etc
Thank you for a clear explanation of NCAA rules, and your usual outstanding job, of providing information on college realignment.
Please do a video on how you believe acc will do schedule with smu cal and Stanford
Nothing screams Atlantic like California 🎉
I think there will be a trade or sorts coming soon between the ACC and Big 12. I understand the financial and competitive implications, but eventually, everyone is going to get tried with going back and forth Coast to Coast. I heard some rumors that they are considering bringing some long-distance ACC games to Dallas to alleviate travel.
Cincinnati, WVU, and UCF should be in the ACC. Stanford, Cal, and SMU should go to the Big 12. Geographically it makes sense. Doing so will reignite more favorable rivalries within each conference.
Predicting ACC Schedules soon???
With SMU leaving the American, there is talk of ARMY joining as a Football-only member just like NAVY. The American would likely add a non-football school just as they did with Wichita State. I wonder how St. Louis University (Private) would make a case to move from the Atlantic-10 to the American Athletic Conference. Note AAC member Memphis plays Missouri in the Dome at America's Center in St. Louis, MO on September 23, 2004.
I'm not sure Saint Louis would be interested. The A-10 works for them because they look to the northeast for many of their students. Saint Louis also hasn't done as well in basketball.
Dayton might be a more viable target as Xavier is just simply too close to them for the Big East to consider them.
That said, 13 for basketball isn't as problematic as an odd number is in football.
THe ending is facinating. that explains the lawsuit filed by OSU and WSU today
Can you do a breakdown of what yesterday's lawsuit filed by OSU and WSU against the Pac-12 means? And then breakdown what the implications are with the Pac-12/Mountain West reverse merger for the new Pac-12 conference. What kind of assets would the conference have? Would the conference still be able to keep a lot of the privileges they have in the NCAA versus the existing G5 conferences? Do you believe the leavers in the Pac-12 will be able to get any of the assets and reserves of the conference even though they didn't vote to dissolve the conference before they announced their departures to other conferences? All of this is extremally interesting, we've never see a Power 5 essentially collapse like this, very much uncharted waters.
I know one thing the law is on on OSU and WSU side because when USC and UCLA announce to moving to a new conference they were immediately removed from the board. The same thing should of happen to all the other schools.
You are the best. 👏🏽
Ok so i deleted previous post bc i asked before finishing vid, but then it wasn’t answered. When you made the realignment prediction vid you said P2 could backfill/merge and keep cfp autobid, what changed in your opinion?
ACC taking Cal/Stanford/SMU (which I didn't see at all - ACC expansion was reportedly dead at the time). This overhauled the dynamics:
A rebuilt Pac-12 needed a core of Pac-4/SMU/SDSU to entice schools to pay $17+ million in exit fees. But with Cal/Stanford/SMU off the board, WSU/OSU don't bridge the value gap enough (financially...but also location & academically) for schools to pay $17+ million for a league with no media deal in 10 months.
Do you think Pac-2 reaches out to the better half of mountain west schools + westernmost top aac schools to rebuild, or do they jump ship after the 2 year grace period (if not earlier)? If the former, do you see those schools accepting? Part of me sees why the schools would prefer stability and not gambling the $17m exit fee, but the other part thinks why wouldn’t some of the top remaining G5 schools not want to join together alongside two power five caliber programs in WSU and OSU? It would be a lot like how the Big xii rebounded except a lot more G5 heavy, but still similar
@@jackmcenery1444 I think the Pac-2 will definitely reach out and attempt to rebuild. Their targets, IMO:
MWC (6): CSU, AFA, Boise, UNLV, Fresno, SDSU
AAC (4): Memphis, Tulane, Rice, UTSA
It's just very hard to see it coming together, logistically or financially. Realignment has shown schools love to leave behind others they deem "lesser", but this timeline and circumstances are unprecedented. There's no media deal, the market is as dead as ever, they'd have to pay $17+ M for a marginal increase in media revenue -- and all of this (rebuilding a whole conference, negotiating a deal) has to be done ASAP. Unless everyone has the patience to delay it a year, too many stars have to align.
@@d1_360So what’s the most likely outcome for OSU + WSU in your opinion?
Pac-12 would still trigger the grace period by being below 7 active Division I members, but they could keep an automatic bid for basketball by getting to six for the 2024-25 and 2025-26 seasons. They could add Seattle, Grand Canyon, Utah Valley, and California Baptist. If they were really desperate for a seventh member, Chicago State would be available. The more rational alternative would be to find a Big Sky school willing to either drop football (Portland State?) or play football in the UAC (Northern Colorado). The PAC 12 could take a lot of programs that are affiliates with the WAC in various sports like Sacramento State in baseball and UNLV, Air Force, and San Diego State in men's soccer.
Ironically if this happens the WAC would be down to seven, but as of 2024 all of its members would be active Division members. If UTRGV would play a WAC FCS schedule in 2024, the WAC would have six FCS members without any affiliates. Of course the WAC can assume the UAC for NCAA compliance purposes, then the ASUN schools can break off once they have enough for an autobid themselves.
I don't think OSU/WSU have any interest in bringing in WAC schools. It'll be a Pac-12/Mountain West reverse merger where the Mountain West votes to dissolve their conference and OSU and WSU invite them en masse to the Pac-12. This allows the Pac-12 to retain their NCAA tournament credits in the tens of millions and they can negotiate a new TV deal with CBS/FOX who currently have the Mountain West TV deal. Likely ESPN would be interested in an after dark slot with this new reformed Pac-12 as well.
First!! also WEST GEORGIA TO D1!!!
On the bright side, travel for Stanford and Cal’s field hockey teams will be decreasing by this move! America East -> ACC
Look at ACC to go after USF, Memphis, Tulane, Rice and Cincinnati in the future. all of them are R1, and gets them into all ten states for recruiting.
UConn, SDSU, Memphis, and USF make the most sense. Cincy isn’t going to want to leave B12. Out of that 4, UConn and Memphis offer the most financially in terms of tv deals, but at the same time, access to southern cal could be huge down the line. UConn would be a buy low basketball play with the potential to get a strong football program to grow for cheap. USF would be a play made many years from now as they are finally investing in their athletics at a level of a school pursuing P5 just now. The appeal of Memphis would be in basketball mainly since their football program has declined dramatically, but perhaps reigniting the louisville rivalry could bring some booster power back to that program despite AAC apathy lurking in the corner. Rice just doesn’t have the booster power SMU does despite the schools wealth, AND they have massive academic restrictions. Tulane is like if SMU didn’t have booster power and was in a market the fraction the value of Dallas.
@@rangersking6699 If FSU and maybe Miami? USF would be sooner than later.
@@Spitfirethedragon good luck to them getting out any time before 2030 lol. We’re talking about hundreds of millions of dollars they’d have to pay, which would put them far more in a hole than the amount of extra money they’d earn from being higher up.
I expect things to ultimately really go down around the time the new members finally receive their full shares in 2033 then there’s no extra money for the top programs, but even then, they have to have a place to actually go, and the big 12 isn’t going to have any more money for them than what the ACC has to offer, so outside of the few select schools in Miami, FSU, UNC, Clemson(I am NOT buying the hype that Virginia would draw the interest of the B10/SEC as Virginia is not a popular program and this isn’t 2013 anymore, and the sec has already shown willingness to add teams in states they already have in the case of texas) who *might* have a B10/SEC shot, the rest are going to have to stick it out and backfill with G5’s later, just like what the big 12 did. Then, and only then, will seismic realignment finally take a break until we see conferences breaking away from the NCAA.
The ACC is going to have to move fast if teams do decide to break away before the GOR ends, whenever that is, because they need to exercise that pro rata to death to ensure the new schools get as much time in national prominence with the ACC deal before the next one comes, so that they can boost their relevance. Memphis would easily be the diciest move of this bunch if USF’s long term investments pay off, but they still spend a lot. Keep in mind too for UConn that they already earn money at the floor or above of the ACC financially. They could drop right in at any time, especially with them being back on top of basketball.
The ACC can go after them all that they want, why on earth would Cincinnati leave the Big 12 for the ACC!?
@@rangersking6699Exactly, great post.