Perfectly balanced view. Always the bottom line....The Net Loss. Until we see that reducing this is going nowhere. I'm in for 10,000 @ $5.84. I believe the Q4'24 will be the start of reducing these losses. What we need to be mindful of is, with a predicted expectation of having another 450,000 NIO/Onvo/Firefly cars on the road by Q4'25 gives us approx 1M Battery Swap cars on the road. Figures suggest on any given day 15% of cars will battery swap that is 150,000 ÷ 3,250 estimated BS stations by Q4'25 = 46 swaps per station per day.
I never said the should not use the swap infrastructure. I just think there is no good reason for this rather insane pace of buildout. Thanks for the comment! :)
@@UrAverageInvestor. the main reason is ONVO sales next year and some of NIO's partners will start releasing their vehicle models which will support NIO's battery swapping standards.
Considering the numbers of cars they expect to sell in the coming year, I think the battery swap stations will come in handy. And in the long run they will pay off. Speaking of, can you do a video on the revenues being generated by the battery swaps at the moment; the % of cars being sold with battery swap option; and how that might translate into revenue for the coming year(s).
They need battery swapping stations, otherwise there is no advantage on battery swapping cars. Why would anyone buy a NIO? The competition is huge in China. More cars > more swaps > more revenue > more advantages.
A EV built on a platform that can swap out the battery is a WIN, i don't care how charging evolves. The fact that if i have a older gen battery and swap to a newer one or replace a faulty one with ease.. Complete win.
Please be patient. The battery swap is NIO's unique position. Without it, what is the difference between NIO and XPENG? With the explosion of car sales for ONVO and Firefly sub-brands expected in 2025 and 2026, the revenue from battery-swapping services will increase exponentially. The battery-swapping services will promote more sales of their cars in return. XPENG will probably turn profitable a couple quarters earlier than that of NIO. However, what happens after that???? NIO has a much bigger chessboard than XPENG.
Its a good thing you aren't the CEO of NIO. They just opened 300 Onvo stores, next year they will open Firefly stores. They will eventually ramp up to selling 80,000-100,000 cars a month with NIO, Onvo and Firefly. NIO has partnered with Changan Automobile, Geely Holding, JAC Group and Chery Automobile in battery swap. They will be releasing battery swap cars in the year few years. They are selling over 150,000 a month in EVs combined month. In a few years, there will easily be 5 million swappable cars on the road. Keep building those stations. Every dime they spend now is grabbing a bigger piece of that pie.
Just imagine if Xpeng will start to build battery swap stations and charging stations like Nio, and spend just as much in new Onvo stores and nio houses , then go and check their balance sheet. Nio is doing fenimenal!!
I agree with your reasoning for swap stations - on top of that, I wud reduce the stupid nio houses which run empty. And on the marketing side, I wud only announce a product if it is available for sale immediately after announcement..
Swapping is the future. Net loss is on track. It is normal that a company like Nio has net loss. If you do not agree do not invest in Nio or not discuss it...
You and I think alike I come from a commercial loan underwriting background for lower to middle market companies in North America. All of the assumptions that this company can monetize their infrastructure build out continue to come up short. This company had over 4 percent market share three years ago and now it’s less than 2%. Onvo excuses have already started. The classic sign of a growth company that failed to scale up in time is what they are exhibiting, which is increasing revenues and decreasing EBITDA. Just wait until they have to recognize the US$1.5 billion cash investment into Nio China on fourth-quarter earnings.
I like the stations for long term but I honestly think for the short term it would be better for the company if the pace of buildout was slower. That way we could make less net loss which I believe is important. Thanks for the comment :)
The net loss has increased due to ONVO, driven by the need to establish salesrooms nationwide and expand swap stations to support its operations. These investments are currently reflected as negative income. However, there is hope for improvement in the next quarter. That said, I remain cautious about the first quarter, as the Chinese New Year typically results in at least a week of closures, impacting operations. Patience is crucial for success-avoid the mistake I made with PLTR. I sold all my shares out of frustration, and now the stock has risen to over $60.
Swapping gives NIO their moat. There is no other company that comes close to having a built-out swapping infrastructure like NIO, and there probably will never be a competitor that comes close. 3 things will signal the beginning of consistent profits. The reduction of R&D ($472M in Q3), the completion of their swapping network and monetization of their swapping partnerships including grid stabilization revenues (and now franchising of swapping operations), and increased margins from scaling their product lines. This will take a couple more years, but large investors will wake up in advance of this all happening, so get in while you can and hold.
Do you think the loss is the reason fro Shorts depressing the stock price? In other word, do you think once NIO reports reducing losses the shorts will let go of their grip on NIO stock? I do not think so. I suspect there is a much deeper agenda by shorts, pushing NIO, the existential threat to their large holding is Tesla (or perhaps Apple)....
There is nothing going on that doesn’t happen with all companies who are bleeding to death. I was an IPO investor of Tesla and I remember reading the Reddit groups people crying about naked shorting holding the stock price down while they were bleeding red,ink. Nio is actually very lucky because I haven’t seen short interest over 15%. At its peak Tesla was facing almost 60% short interest. Do you know how they made it go away? They turned a profit. William Li uses shareholders like a doormat to fulfill his utopian dream of putting a swap station every 10 feet in China. Until then get ready for a lot of pain.
You totally missing the point building out the infrastructure is expensive but after all these infrastructure is built out. The income they going generate would be ridiculous. It was the same for gas stations
I hope they use as much as they can on battery stations. Rather let it hurt for a while and go BIG then slow down to show a profit for a short thinking invester and making a less company in the process. You are very wrong on this spending moaning in my mind. Their sale would tank if they see little to none battery stations
This is the most depressing video. You are so negative on a few KPI‘s. Overall earnings were excellent. Their net loss will go down eventually they are building their brand still there’s no reason to stop. Keep pushing while you can keep building while you can. Why risk future earnings for near term profits It will become profitable within the next year and the losses will go down . You are making a great sound miserable . they just guided for half a million deliveries next year. Some of us had built our own businesses. I know you have to spend a lot of money in the beginning to gain market share and eventually at some point, he will begin making money. That’s just how business works.
Perfectly balanced view.
Always the bottom line....The Net Loss.
Until we see that reducing this is going nowhere. I'm in for 10,000 @ $5.84. I believe the Q4'24 will be the start of reducing these losses. What we need to be mindful of is, with a predicted expectation of having another 450,000 NIO/Onvo/Firefly cars on the road by Q4'25 gives us approx 1M Battery Swap cars on the road. Figures suggest on any given day 15% of cars will battery swap that is 150,000 ÷ 3,250 estimated BS stations by Q4'25 = 46 swaps per station per day.
China will mandate battery inspections starting next year. NIO is exempt from this because of battery swap. You can relax. Battery Swap is a win.
I never said the should not use the swap infrastructure. I just think there is no good reason for this rather insane pace of buildout. Thanks for the comment! :)
@@UrAverageInvestor. there is. To be far ahead of the competition so that the competition is more inclined to partner than to go elsewhere.
@@UrAverageInvestor. the main reason is ONVO sales next year and some of NIO's partners will start releasing their vehicle models which will support NIO's battery swapping standards.
Considering the numbers of cars they expect to sell in the coming year, I think the battery swap stations will come in handy. And in the long run they will pay off. Speaking of, can you do a video on the revenues being generated by the battery swaps at the moment; the % of cars being sold with battery swap option; and how that might translate into revenue for the coming year(s).
Thanks for the comment. Im on it regarding the video.
They need battery swapping stations, otherwise there is no advantage on battery swapping cars. Why would anyone buy a NIO? The competition is huge in China. More cars > more swaps > more revenue > more advantages.
A EV built on a platform that can swap out the battery is a WIN, i don't care how charging evolves. The fact that if i have a older gen battery and swap to a newer one or replace a faulty one with ease.. Complete win.
Agree. As an EV buyer, to have both options to swap and charge is invaluable.
Re-sale value, upgrade, isolated long drives, etc.
Please be patient. The battery swap is NIO's unique position. Without it, what is the difference between NIO and XPENG? With the explosion of car sales for ONVO and Firefly sub-brands expected in 2025 and 2026, the revenue from battery-swapping services will increase exponentially. The battery-swapping services will promote more sales of their cars in return. XPENG will probably turn profitable a couple quarters earlier than that of NIO. However, what happens after that???? NIO has a much bigger chessboard than XPENG.
It would be wise for Li, Xpeng, BYD, etc., to adopt a standardized battery swap for their vehicles.
Doesn't the swap stations behave as a grid stabilizer when not in use?
Its a good thing you aren't the CEO of NIO. They just opened 300 Onvo stores, next year they will open Firefly stores. They will eventually ramp up to selling 80,000-100,000 cars a month with NIO, Onvo and Firefly. NIO has partnered with Changan Automobile, Geely Holding, JAC Group and Chery Automobile in battery swap. They will be releasing battery swap cars in the year few years. They are selling over 150,000 a month in EVs combined month. In a few years, there will easily be 5 million swappable cars on the road. Keep building those stations. Every dime they spend now is grabbing a bigger piece of that pie.
What if other manufacturers want to do battery swap and use NIOs stations? Usage fees could be very large.
Just imagine if Xpeng will start to build battery swap stations and charging stations like Nio, and spend just as much in new Onvo stores and nio houses , then go and check their balance sheet. Nio is doing fenimenal!!
I agree with your reasoning for swap stations - on top of that, I wud reduce the stupid nio houses which run empty. And on the marketing side, I wud only announce a product if it is available for sale immediately after announcement..
Swapping is the future. Net loss is on track. It is normal that a company like Nio has net loss. If you do not agree do not invest in Nio or not discuss it...
But doesn't the net loss be due to a lot of money invested in swap stations and research?
You and I think alike I come from a commercial loan underwriting background for lower to middle market companies in North America. All of the assumptions that this company can monetize their infrastructure build out continue to come up short. This company had over 4 percent market share three years ago and now it’s less than 2%. Onvo excuses have already started. The classic sign of a growth company that failed to scale up in time is what they are exhibiting, which is increasing revenues and decreasing EBITDA. Just wait until they have to recognize the US$1.5 billion cash investment into Nio China on fourth-quarter earnings.
U don’t understand why they built over 2,000 swap stations. Other EV companies will be relying on these. $$$
I like the stations for long term but I honestly think for the short term it would be better for the company if the pace of buildout was slower. That way we could make less net loss which I believe is important. Thanks for the comment :)
The net loss has increased due to ONVO, driven by the need to establish salesrooms nationwide and expand swap stations to support its operations. These investments are currently reflected as negative income. However, there is hope for improvement in the next quarter. That said, I remain cautious about the first quarter, as the Chinese New Year typically results in at least a week of closures, impacting operations. Patience is crucial for success-avoid the mistake I made with PLTR. I sold all my shares out of frustration, and now the stock has risen to over $60.
NIO profitable 2026 now instead of prior Etrade estimate 2027.
Swapping gives NIO their moat. There is no other company that comes close to having a built-out swapping infrastructure like NIO, and there probably will never be a competitor that comes close. 3 things will signal the beginning of consistent profits. The reduction of R&D ($472M in Q3), the completion of their swapping network and monetization of their swapping partnerships including grid stabilization revenues (and now franchising of swapping operations), and increased margins from scaling their product lines. This will take a couple more years, but large investors will wake up in advance of this all happening, so get in while you can and hold.
Do you think the loss is the reason fro Shorts depressing the stock price?
In other word, do you think once NIO reports reducing losses the shorts will let go of their grip on NIO stock?
I do not think so. I suspect there is a much deeper agenda by shorts, pushing NIO, the existential threat to their large holding is Tesla (or perhaps Apple)....
There is nothing going on that doesn’t happen with all companies who are bleeding to death. I was an IPO investor of Tesla and I remember reading the Reddit groups people crying about naked shorting holding the stock price down while they were bleeding red,ink. Nio is actually very lucky because I haven’t seen short interest over 15%. At its peak Tesla was facing almost 60% short interest. Do you know how they made it go away? They turned a profit. William Li uses shareholders like a doormat to fulfill his utopian dream of putting a swap station every 10 feet in China. Until then get ready for a lot of pain.
You totally missing the point building out the infrastructure is expensive but after all these infrastructure is built out. The income they going generate would be ridiculous. It was the same for gas stations
I hope they use as much as they can on battery stations. Rather let it hurt for a while and go BIG then slow down to show a profit for a short thinking invester and making a less company in the process. You are very wrong on this spending moaning in my mind.
Their sale would tank if they see little to none battery stations
Charging doesn’t work for EV.
At home and the mall, it does. Long journeys, taxis, etc., win-win.
This is the most depressing video. You are so negative on a few KPI‘s. Overall earnings were excellent. Their net loss will go down eventually they are building their brand still there’s no reason to stop. Keep pushing while you can keep building while you can. Why risk future earnings for near term profits
It will become profitable within the next year and the losses will go down .
You are making a great sound miserable . they just guided for half a million deliveries next year.
Some of us had built our own businesses. I know you have to spend a lot of money in the beginning to gain market share and eventually at some point, he will begin making money. That’s just how business works.
Nio has ZERO financial discipline. Spend spend spend