I completely agree with you on swaps for "now". But once 2-3x the number of cars then the whole scenario changes. If NIO were to stop selling cars today I could see your point. But the reality is that they will deliver cars an exponential rate faster than they can build swap stations. So in my opinion, you need the swap stations first. I prefer they have 5000 swap station before they let the foot of the gas with build out. For traders it sucks. For investors, I agree.. you can exit now and wait to come back in later if you choose. But I'll leave what I have in NIO for now and invest new money in other place. The issue with Chinese stocks... I think everyone is aware geo politically what is going on. It can change in the blink of an eye. I would try to time it and pull out of Chinese stocks.
I agree with you. I like Tesla, but I don't fully trust its CEO, Mr. Musk. There's always the possibility that he could take actions that negatively impact the company. On the other hand, NIO has already taken a significant hit, and there’s not much more room for it to decline.
Management cannot just ignore the stock price entirely. Obviously it shouldn’t drive their every move, and I completely understand that they want to reinvest most profit back into growth. However, they need to increase the value of the company so that they can do at least one or two more future raises. If they can trend towards profit and get the stock price up to about 3x sales, then a raise is going to deliver them much more money with far less dilution. This is critical to be considering, because I do think they’re going to want to raise more money in 2026 or 2027 to help them expand internationally.
Great observations I agree completely. The time value of money for the poor folks who bought this during the hype is very easy to calculate versus what they could have made by simple indexing. I don’t agree with you that they will be a publicly traded company long-term I think they will be privatized, ultimately. There is no intention to move towards profitability enough to offset the spending and clearly they have a demand problem against the backdrop of capex. They cannot raise capital at the share prices and only profitability will move the share price to a level that it makes sense to dilute even through convertible bonds. The destruction of capital with this company has been mind numbing and book value was down to $.77 per share triple digit negative return on equity every quarter.
In November alone new users used NIO’s battery swap stations over 27000 times .... all in all NIO users have now swapped a battery over 51 million times , that’s a fact and this number is growing every minute, and that’s just NIO. Many large auto producers in China have now joined NIO’s battery program and will produce cars that can swap using NIO’s charging stations and technology. This company may be struggling for now but this is a monster in the making and battery swapping will soon be the standard set by the Chinese government and NIO will be a massive winner when that happens.
He has made profitability targets two other times in the last four years and come up so short, it was comical. To the point EBITD had cratered so badly profitability was farther away than when he called for it. You cannot believe anything they put out they’re not even going to meet their December 10,000 Onvo delivery which is only three weeks old
Onvo is already turning into an unmitigated disaster. How are they going to double sales in 2025 when the new factory isn’t going to be up and running until the end of the third quarter? They’re going to make up for all of that volume and 90 days? It’s going to be another year of missed.guidance, massive net losses and huge expenditures. Without factoring in the US$3 billion they have the rights to buy into. Nio China in 2025 I expect them to run out of cash by the end of the third quarter 2025
I completely agree with you on swaps for "now". But once 2-3x the number of cars then the whole scenario changes. If NIO were to stop selling cars today I could see your point. But the reality is that they will deliver cars an exponential rate faster than they can build swap stations. So in my opinion, you need the swap stations first. I prefer they have 5000 swap station before they let the foot of the gas with build out.
For traders it sucks. For investors, I agree.. you can exit now and wait to come back in later if you choose. But I'll leave what I have in NIO for now and invest new money in other place. The issue with Chinese stocks... I think everyone is aware geo politically what is going on. It can change in the blink of an eye. I would try to time it and pull out of Chinese stocks.
I agree with you. I like Tesla, but I don't fully trust its CEO, Mr. Musk. There's always the possibility that he could take actions that negatively impact the company. On the other hand, NIO has already taken a significant hit, and there’s not much more room for it to decline.
Agreed
Management cannot just ignore the stock price entirely. Obviously it shouldn’t drive their every move, and I completely understand that they want to reinvest most profit back into growth. However, they need to increase the value of the company so that they can do at least one or two more future raises. If they can trend towards profit and get the stock price up to about 3x sales, then a raise is going to deliver them much more money with far less dilution. This is critical to be considering, because I do think they’re going to want to raise more money in 2026 or 2027 to help them expand internationally.
110% exactly what I think. Could not have said it better.
7K to 8K on ONVO is fine for Dec. YTY NIO still have sale growth of 28-30% for 2024.
I’m very happy with 7-8k that being said I think it’s yet again a case where they overpromise and risk underdelivering.
Great observations I agree completely. The time value of money for the poor folks who bought this during the hype is very easy to calculate versus what they could have made by simple indexing. I don’t agree with you that they will be a publicly traded company long-term I think they will be privatized, ultimately. There is no intention to move towards profitability enough to offset the spending and clearly they have a demand problem against the backdrop of capex. They cannot raise capital at the share prices and only profitability will move the share price to a level that it makes sense to dilute even through convertible bonds. The destruction of capital with this company has been mind numbing and book value was down to $.77 per share triple digit negative return on equity every quarter.
In November alone new users used NIO’s battery swap stations over 27000 times .... all in all NIO users have now swapped a battery over 51 million times , that’s a fact and this number is growing every minute, and that’s just NIO. Many large auto producers in China have now joined NIO’s battery program and will produce cars that can swap using NIO’s charging stations and technology. This company may be struggling for now but this is a monster in the making and battery swapping will soon be the standard set by the Chinese government and NIO will be a massive winner when that happens.
NIO CEO recently already said will be profitable 2026 then trading above 15 is possible.
I hope this time they are right but tbh I kind of remember them saying that kind of stuff in previous year if my memory does not fail me.
@@UrAverageInvestor. They said the same thing in 2022 about 2023.
He has made profitability targets two other times in the last four years and come up so short, it was comical. To the point EBITD had cratered so badly profitability was farther away than when he called for it. You cannot believe anything they put out they’re not even going to meet their December 10,000 Onvo delivery which is only three weeks old
Onvo is already turning into an unmitigated disaster. How are they going to double sales in 2025 when the new factory isn’t going to be up and running until the end of the third quarter? They’re going to make up for all of that volume and 90 days? It’s going to be another year of missed.guidance, massive net losses and huge expenditures. Without factoring in the US$3 billion they have the rights to buy into. Nio China in 2025 I expect them to run out of cash by the end of the third quarter 2025