Ed Yardeni
Ed Yardeni
  • 159
  • 504 353
The Recession Is Over, Again!
The financial markets have been recalibrating their expectations for monetary policy since the FOMC’s December meeting and their expectations for economic changes under the incoming Trump 2.0 administration since Election Day. In this context, Friday’s strong employment report only served to cement investors’ sense that the Fed should pause its easing. Both bond and stock markets reacted like the sky was falling. We’re not surprised by this January correction, and we view it as healthy: The markets are gaining a more realistic sense of the current situation, recognizing that interest rates will stay higher (i.e., normal) for longer, while the economy remains resilient. A strong Q4 earnings season should help to restore shaken investors’ confidence.
-------------------
📈 Elevate Your Market Knowledge with Expert Insights
After 40+ years on Wall Street, I'm offering you a front-row seat to financial expertise. Get ahead with our analysis, charts, and exclusive commentary.
▶️ Grab a FREE month of premium insights: quicktak.es/Yt-0a
Join our community for early webcast access, daily insights, and more. Start your journey to smarter investing with us at yardeniquicktakes.com.
มุมมอง: 7 030

วีดีโอ

Risks & Reward In 2025
มุมมอง 6Kวันที่ผ่านมา
The January Barometer and January Effect have been interesting statistical regularities that may not have much investment usefulness. It’s better to stay in the stock market whatever the month brings than to try and execute exits and entrances based on the calendar. Over time, the market has a bullish bias, which is why we do too. … Today, Dr Ed lists what could go right for the stock market th...
What Could Go Wrong & Right Up Ahead?
มุมมอง 6K14 วันที่ผ่านมา
Ed and Eric look forward to the new year.
2025 Outlook: What's Ahead?
มุมมอง 10K21 วันที่ผ่านมา
Ed and Eric look forward to the new year. 📈 Elevate Your Market Knowledge with Expert Insights After 40 years on Wall Street, I'm offering you a front-row seat to financial expertise. Get ahead with our analysis, charts, and exclusive commentary. ▶️ Grab a FREE month of premium insights: quicktak.es/Yt-0a Join our community for early webcast access, daily insights, and more. Start your journey ...
Inflation: The Good, The Bad & The Ugly
มุมมอง 5Kหลายเดือนก่อน
Lots of crosscurrents are converging to determine the course of inflation in 2025. So projecting that course takes seeing where those currents are headed, predicting with the aid of historical correlations how they’ll likely impact inflation, then overlaying potential economic scenarios to see how they change the narrative. The result: Dr Ed’s three inflation scenarios-the Good, the Bad, and th...
Roaring 2020s Tour Deep In The Heart Of Texas
มุมมอง 4.1Kหลายเดือนก่อน
Roaring 2020s Tour Deep In The Heart Of Texas
Live Long & Prosper!
มุมมอง 5Kหลายเดือนก่อน
Live Long & Prosper!
Is Trump 2.0 Bullish Or Bearish?
มุมมอง 6Kหลายเดือนก่อน
Is Trump 2.0 Bullish Or Bearish?
Trumped: What a Radical Policy Shift Means for Investors
มุมมอง 8Kหลายเดือนก่อน
Trumped: What a Radical Policy Shift Means for Investors
The Fed: Neutral Or Bust? Risking Inflation, Market Meltup, and a Strong Economy
มุมมอง 6K2 หลายเดือนก่อน
The Fed: Neutral Or Bust? Risking Inflation, Market Meltup, and a Strong Economy
Bond Vigilantes Are Fed Up
มุมมอง 8K2 หลายเดือนก่อน
Bond Vigilantes Are Fed Up
Valuation In A Resilient Economy
มุมมอง 4.9K2 หลายเดือนก่อน
Valuation In A Resilient Economy
Bond Vigilantes Voting Early: Why Rising Treasury Yields Are a Warning to the Fed
มุมมอง 17K2 หลายเดือนก่อน
Bond Vigilantes Voting Early: Why Rising Treasury Yields Are a Warning to the Fed
Happy Second Birthday! The bull market turns two
มุมมอง 3.4K3 หลายเดือนก่อน
Happy Second Birthday! The bull market turns two
A Dozen Reasons For None-And-Done
มุมมอง 4.3K3 หลายเดือนก่อน
A Dozen Reasons For None-And-Done
No Hard Feelings -- Why the US Economy is Resilient & the Fed's Surprising Move
มุมมอง 3.5K3 หลายเดือนก่อน
No Hard Feelings Why the US Economy is Resilient & the Fed's Surprising Move
Fed’s Dream Economy Versus Ours
มุมมอง 4.6K3 หลายเดือนก่อน
Fed’s Dream Economy Versus Ours
50 Basis Points: Baked Or Half Baked?
มุมมอง 2.8K4 หลายเดือนก่อน
50 Basis Points: Baked Or Half Baked?
Another Growth Scare
มุมมอง 4.9K4 หลายเดือนก่อน
Another Growth Scare
Someday, There Will Be A Recession
มุมมอง 8K4 หลายเดือนก่อน
Someday, There Will Be A Recession
Powell’s Latest Pivot Won’t Be His Last
มุมมอง 6K4 หลายเดือนก่อน
Powell’s Latest Pivot Won’t Be His Last
Get Ready To Short Bonds?
มุมมอง 9K4 หลายเดือนก่อน
Get Ready To Short Bonds?
No Recession In Earnings Or In Disinverting Yield Curve
มุมมอง 6K5 หลายเดือนก่อน
No Recession In Earnings Or In Disinverting Yield Curve
Dueling Views: Market Uncertainty & Policy Shifts
มุมมอง 5K5 หลายเดือนก่อน
Dueling Views: Market Uncertainty & Policy Shifts
Immaculate Disinflation! Lowering of inflation without a recession
มุมมอง 2.8K6 หลายเดือนก่อน
Immaculate Disinflation! Lowering of inflation without a recession
It’s Still A Bull Market Until Further Notice
มุมมอง 10K6 หลายเดือนก่อน
It’s Still A Bull Market Until Further Notice
Inflation Heading Toward Soft Landing
มุมมอง 3.5K6 หลายเดือนก่อน
Inflation Heading Toward Soft Landing
Bull Tramples Even Wall Street’s Bulls: Are we in a stock market melt up?
มุมมอง 3.7K6 หลายเดือนก่อน
Bull Tramples Even Wall Street’s Bulls: Are we in a stock market melt up?
The Phillips Curve Ball: Looking at unemployment and inflation
มุมมอง 4.1K7 หลายเดือนก่อน
The Phillips Curve Ball: Looking at unemployment and inflation
To Tell The Truth: A dive into the labor market data
มุมมอง 4.7K7 หลายเดือนก่อน
To Tell The Truth: A dive into the labor market data

ความคิดเห็น

  • @aka-oo8ci
    @aka-oo8ci 12 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา

    thx for the heads up and nice new glasses, looks good

  • @ehazard9525
    @ehazard9525 17 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา

    No Ed….I did not listen.

  • @petenrita
    @petenrita วันที่ผ่านมา

    how can you not have 11.9 million rather than 11.9K subscribers?

  • @changhyungo6784
    @changhyungo6784 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Thanks for your analysis and great video

  • @Mark-tm2zu
    @Mark-tm2zu วันที่ผ่านมา

    I don’t think Pres Biden got enough credit for turning around our economy after the pandemic subsided. We’ll see what Trump, DOGE and the oligarchs can do. I hope the tariffs are broad based And should not be on Canada. I think Trump will stimulate a lot of growth through deregulation. Lina Kahn was so bad for the markets. Trump should keep the Fed Independent with no quasi Fed Chair. I agree Ed, he cannot interfere with the Fed if we have higher inflation.

  • @Mark-tm2zu
    @Mark-tm2zu วันที่ผ่านมา

    God speed to all in LA!

  • @DrunkenXiGinPing
    @DrunkenXiGinPing 2 วันที่ผ่านมา

    This idiot guest has no idea what economy is ! All he knows to do is “buy, buy,buy”.

  • @morehn
    @morehn 2 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Ed, your analyses have made me a ton of money since I started subscribing to your Quick Takes a few months ago. Banks, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, biotech, and some other sectors have been rocking it, as you expected.

  • @hawkmoon206
    @hawkmoon206 2 วันที่ผ่านมา

    I am looking forward to next weeks commentary and the impact of tariffs on the economy. thx

  • @viking722nj
    @viking722nj 3 วันที่ผ่านมา

    I'm not sure that Christmas retail jobs give me cause for optimism

  • @malackaraj
    @malackaraj 3 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Ahahah, spokesman of the 1%...thanks Ed, always great to see that there are strong soldiers behind the new aristocracy! For us peasants things are not working out that great but your smile and optimism always gives me hope!

  • @MARK-s2z5j
    @MARK-s2z5j 3 วันที่ผ่านมา

    That’s exactly why Trump &his oligarchs want to crash the economy to sell high than buy low robber barons M.O. since the Rothschild’s cornered England’s economy. Wishful thinking by day traders you have 🙃

  • @MrKanjidude
    @MrKanjidude 3 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Another valuable episode. Bears and cynics are grumbling of course, but when it comes to finance I prefer to look on the bright side. But I also avoid debt and volatile assets.

  • @nonexistent5030
    @nonexistent5030 3 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Howard Marks was very clear in his memo that there were reasonable justifications for apparently elevated valuation metrics relative to historical norms such as high quality businesses dominating the index. He provided an incredibly fair, and balanced analysis. Something Yardeni never does. It's always nowhere to go but up and anything that disagrees is wrong or will be revised. He says it jokingly but his dismissal of Marks's critique displays he really is just a pusher and not a serious analyst. If you have a bearish view there's no reason to pay for Yardeni's research until you're bullish again. So Yardeni tempts you with his permanently bullish tilt. He's just selling his verbal garnish.

    • @mattia6224
      @mattia6224 3 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Ok, sell the market and we'll see. Meanwhile we keep making money if it’s no problem for you

    • @selma5885
      @selma5885 2 วันที่ผ่านมา

      thought he showed all the signs of a bubble.......

  • @MonteRosa849
    @MonteRosa849 3 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Anyone who says that he’s going to meaningfully cut the national debt without touching social security, medicare and medicaid and the defense budget is a fraudster and conman!

  • @joshuaburns3167
    @joshuaburns3167 3 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Lets strip out every because they really dont give a F about inflation 😂

  • @joshuaburns3167
    @joshuaburns3167 3 วันที่ผ่านมา

    A recession cant be allowed to happen unless its a black swan that can instantly be stimulated.

  • @bryan61-b2y
    @bryan61-b2y 4 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Thumb down by accident 😮 sorry.

  • @morehn
    @morehn 4 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Are there any other analysts who are as accurate as Ed? I see so many analysts who try to scare me out of my positions, but I tell them Ed disagrees, and I end up winning.

  • @QuizmasterLaw
    @QuizmasterLaw 4 วันที่ผ่านมา

    the labor market is why i knew the high bond and mortage rates were irrational, the economy added many jobs, more than expected, at least that's my view.

    • @mrshemminger
      @mrshemminger 4 วันที่ผ่านมา

      wouldn't strong labor though mean inflation stays higher so rates stay higher?

    • @QuizmasterLaw
      @QuizmasterLaw 4 วันที่ผ่านมา

      @@mrshemminger not necessarily. yeah a full labor market can be inflationary OR the product of inflation! Inflation is super insidious both a driver and driven by other variables. Infl. leads to a short term economic stimulus but long term economic ruin because it distorts capital investment since no one can foresee and thus cannot plan their investments so it tends to result in capital non-formation and misallocation, which wrecks the economy.

    • @QuizmasterLaw
      @QuizmasterLaw 4 วันที่ผ่านมา

      @@mrshemminger Basically the effect of inflation in the short term is to stimulate consumption and in the long term to ruin capital formation and allocation

    • @QuizmasterLaw
      @QuizmasterLaw 4 วันที่ผ่านมา

      @@mrshemminger Inflation is determined by monetary supply (Friedman was right). Government can cause it with money printing or borrowing or reign it in with taxation. can indirectly influence it by using tax and spending policies to influence capital formation and allocation (tax credits, budget allocations) but central bank and monetary supply are much better because easier to predict and tougher to get wrong.

    • @QuizmasterLaw
      @QuizmasterLaw 4 วันที่ผ่านมา

      @@mrshemminger If the government has full employment and inflation and wants to reduce inflation raise taxes, reduce government borrowing. Keynes btw was wrong, unlike Friedman. Yardeni was concerned about the USA revenue raising capacity as a driver of inflation but there are plenty of ways the government can raise cash (including increased user fees and parafiscal measures like social insurance, sovereign wealth funds (which USA does not seem to do but easily could). Given the USA COULD pay its debt and is not doomed to default the inflation fear is illusory.

  • @QuizmasterLaw
    @QuizmasterLaw 4 วันที่ผ่านมา

    land mortgages currently consensus at 7% which i do think is overpriced, it's because they still expect inflation, with economic growth, though I do not. bull will roar once they figure out inflation really is under control, after they also figure out trump is not gonna wreck the economy.

  • @TC-sr1qf
    @TC-sr1qf 5 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Thank you, Ed!

  • @QuizmasterLaw
    @QuizmasterLaw 5 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Thank you; I told my friend January would be sideways. My own view is in Spring the bull runs further. I think 53000 is the dow resistance going forward. I am FAR from Your expertise I just say my own views as a foil and to be able to review this in the future.

  • @QuizmasterLaw
    @QuizmasterLaw 6 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Great financial analysis! Thank You!!

  • @QuizmasterLaw
    @QuizmasterLaw 6 วันที่ผ่านมา

    i Think the housing market wants 7% mortgages but will settle for 5% I'm currently thinking the drive is simply uncertainty about trump's tariffs which look like they will be broad and deep. I agree January is sideways. 5% of prime lending or retail mortgages? Great content, gotta watch your episode yesterday. Liked & commented!

    • @morehn
      @morehn 6 วันที่ผ่านมา

      @@QuizmasterLaw I think the TH-cam videos come out a few days after his emails

    • @QuizmasterLaw
      @QuizmasterLaw 6 วันที่ผ่านมา

      @@morehn yep

    • @QuizmasterLaw
      @QuizmasterLaw 6 วันที่ผ่านมา

      @@morehn basically his free content is gonna be accurate for stocks & bonds don't even try to trade options and futures on it lol

    • @morehn
      @morehn 6 วันที่ผ่านมา

      @QuizmasterLaw it's a few days late, so you'll generally be safe if you're holding for a few weeks. I don't know why futures or options would be different, assuming you know how to trade them with a longer term analysis. I don't trade options because I don't know how to valuate time decay and volatility, but futures is the same idea as stocks.

    • @tastypymp1287
      @tastypymp1287 6 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Tariffs are a smokescreen. It's about the bond market and China/Japan dumping US bonds to save their currencies.

  • @morehn
    @morehn 6 วันที่ผ่านมา

    How will the country afford its debt without lowering interest rates? Will GDP rise enough?

    • @QuizmasterLaw
      @QuizmasterLaw 6 วันที่ผ่านมา

      USA can generate revenues in MANY non tax ways (and some tax ways) regarding taxes EXCISE taxes on "sin" like cigarettes, alcohol, drugs are perennial earners so are gas oil kerosene match and lighter fluid taxes. The USA has lots of land it could sell anytime but does not want to. It can also increase passport and immigration fees. It can also issue creative bonds though does not do so and i don't recommend that, bond market is better stable and predictable. Regarding taxes I would end the step up at death benefit though rich people will scream. One can also play with the rates of depreciation, capital gains, short and long term gains. Tax reform requires brains, agenda, sensible smart policies. Idk if Trump's team has that but there is a way forward if they want.

    • @tastypymp1287
      @tastypymp1287 6 วันที่ผ่านมา

      ​@@QuizmasterLaw virtually nothing you said as any meaningful impact on GDP.

    • @QuizmasterLaw
      @QuizmasterLaw 6 วันที่ผ่านมา

      @ it's not GDP i would influence but debt & deficit. If I want to quickly increase gdp I would relegalize child labor, maybe suck in a few more million immigrants.

    • @QuizmasterLaw
      @QuizmasterLaw 6 วันที่ผ่านมา

      @tastypymp1287 lowering minimum wages would also help. people need a bit of desperation to get out and work. but we can't be so direct, so i guess a bit of inflation will do the same thing with less screaming. but again, my goal isn't to increase gdp (science is more palatable and often more effective) it's to reduce debt; though I would also be concerned about trade deficiits which, if you are no longer the world's policeman you can no longer expect decade after decade.

    • @tastypymp1287
      @tastypymp1287 6 วันที่ผ่านมา

      @QuizmasterLaw Silly boy.

  • @extrememike
    @extrememike 6 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Agree. Buy the dip.

  • @nicknick3929
    @nicknick3929 7 วันที่ผ่านมา

    You’re the man Ed

  • @kp2718
    @kp2718 7 วันที่ผ่านมา

    The office is looking pretty good in that shot😊

  • @yehjuneseo5587
    @yehjuneseo5587 7 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Thank you sir

  • @morehn
    @morehn 7 วันที่ผ่านมา

    I'm a really big fan of Ed

  • @MonkeyCorporation
    @MonkeyCorporation 7 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Shorts needs to be used for education like this more. It's people unlike you that are veering the next generation in a negative direction - but people like you are the ones who can save that. You've earned a subscriber, sir.

  • @donwatson1330
    @donwatson1330 9 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Thank you

  • @tombkk1322
    @tombkk1322 9 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Did you say the stock market did well on Friday? Maybe this is an old video.

  • @ehazard9525
    @ehazard9525 9 วันที่ผ่านมา

    No Ed…..that is the point. Govt regulations should not be up for auction. Regulations are there for a reason. Because at some point….people got hurt. I appreciate making money in the stock market as much as you do. But seriously….corporations are making plenty of money with the regulations they have. Don’t be greedy.

  • @matsumoribear
    @matsumoribear 9 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Your Fig 15 is very misleading. There is absolutely no evidence that supports this projection. Please do better.

    • @nonexistent5030
      @nonexistent5030 9 วันที่ผ่านมา

      What is misleading about it? His claim is that we're in a technology-driven market boom period over the rest of the decade like we were in 1995. So he's drawing parallels to that time period on the charts...

  • @stevenmix3723
    @stevenmix3723 9 วันที่ผ่านมา

    What I saw today was all those productive immigrants looting the LA fires. It's gonna be fantastic when they start working our AI for us.

  • @amoritius
    @amoritius 10 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Dr. Yardeni, love your weekly videos. Appreciate it you consider uploading them to Spotify as audio only podcasts. Cheers!

  • @Mark-tm2zu
    @Mark-tm2zu 10 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Ed, Eric Good discussion as always. The Jobs report came out subsequent to this report. The 10 year ended at 4.77%, which is relatively high. I think year-end earnings will be fine but obviously company interest expenses will rise. Productivity is improving and I think we will avoid a recession for the next 90 days. However, I am less bullish than you are. Trump policies will present incredible volatility and unknowns. He speaks insane thoughts daily, like taking over Canada or Greenland. Tariffs will be based on what countries do to bring production to US, so I expect them to be customized like you mention. The US$ is at historical highs, so that is also a market threat. I am very cautious now. I tune in each week. I am retired leveraged finance VP, MBA but not an economist. I hope things are more bullish as you hope.

  • @sandrahoward5512
    @sandrahoward5512 10 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Thank you!

  • @Marco-c3j4y
    @Marco-c3j4y 10 วันที่ผ่านมา

    The emphasis on having a clear exit strategy is crucial, especially after experiencing the volatility of previous bull and bear markets. It’s refreshing to see the focus on setting realistic goals and understanding the why behind profit-taking. This approach not only prepares you for unexpected market shifts but also keeps you grounded during the emotional rollercoaster of trading. It’s a valuable reminder that crypto investing should ultimately serve our personal aspirations, rather than just becoming a game of chasing numbers. I have managed to grow a nest egg of around $200k to a decent 7 figures in the space of a few months...Thanks to Milton Harper insights, daily trade signals, and my dedication to learning, I've been increasing my daily earnings. Kudos to the journey ahead!

    • @MichaelPhillips-x2e
      @MichaelPhillips-x2e 10 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Oh, really? I never considered that as an option. May I ask who you've been working with? I could probably use some help myself.

    • @Marco-c3j4y
      @Marco-c3j4y 10 วันที่ผ่านมา

      He's mostly on Telegrams, using the user name.

    • @Marco-c3j4y
      @Marco-c3j4y 10 วันที่ผ่านมา

      @MiltonHarper

    • @andreasgappmaier5
      @andreasgappmaier5 10 วันที่ผ่านมา

      I appreciate the professionalism and dedication of the team behind Milton’s trade signal service.

    • @Germaine-b5x
      @Germaine-b5x 10 วันที่ผ่านมา

      He's really good in studying the market and making a strategy and i am learning so much from him already.

  • @kp2718
    @kp2718 11 วันที่ผ่านมา

    The rest of January risks are CPI reading, FOMC, and Trumps hawkish few weeks. Also tnx being under 5.0. This week I think showed you.

  • @kp2718
    @kp2718 11 วันที่ผ่านมา

    9usd is having a minor correction after bouncing off a major multiyear post GFC trendline on DXY. Check for yourself.

  • @petergozinya6122
    @petergozinya6122 11 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Flash forward to next week……. Ed: how’s the weather in Santa Monica Eric ? Eric: 😱

  • @QuizmasterLaw
    @QuizmasterLaw 11 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Good. Inflation is horrible, raises housing prices and distorts capital investment in so many ways. If you want to stimulate consumer spending (which I don't advise) then make EITC and tax refunds quarterly. This means less interest free loans to USA but consumers gonna spend whatever they have as soon as they get it because money+pocket=burning hole for 90% of humans. I love your work so does my boss you two are great!!

  • @jennetal.984
    @jennetal.984 11 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Ed called for higher vol and I’m grateful to him that I heeded the call

  • @jimsmith8324
    @jimsmith8324 11 วันที่ผ่านมา

    You need to figure out who your audience is: traders or investors. Investors don't need your help. Traders do, so get it right.

    • @Kep19901
      @Kep19901 11 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Which one are you?

    • @usntheboy1
      @usntheboy1 10 วันที่ผ่านมา

      What's your problem?

    • @nil2331
      @nil2331 10 วันที่ผ่านมา

      While investors may not trade as frequently as traders, they still make trades occasionally over the years. It's important to know when to exit a position and potentially re-enter at a discount, which is where these suggestions can be useful. This is just my opinion, and you're welcome to have your own.

    • @MrKanjidude
      @MrKanjidude 10 วันที่ผ่านมา

      If you're a trader you don't need macro forecasts. You need divine intervention.

    • @ericfrith6358
      @ericfrith6358 10 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Rude and wrong.

  • @BradHearn-vm4ed
    @BradHearn-vm4ed 11 วันที่ผ่านมา

    What do you think about silver

  • @will6177
    @will6177 11 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Hope Eric is well with the crazy fires out there!

  • @QuizmasterLaw
    @QuizmasterLaw 11 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Despite increased US-China trade and investment tensions there shall be no war nor governmental or economic collapse in China. Perhaps a recession in China, though they will never admit that and are actively seeking anti-recessionary actions such as encouraging tourism and, frankly, youtubing and similar ways to tap into Western markets and consumers at a micro level. Chinese people are hard working and want to get rich, even more so than the English, really. Great video!