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The US economy is already in recession. Any rate cut will not ignite inflation. The banks will tighten even more, all consumer and corporate credit lending. This is the beginning of a deflationary period for your assets. Stocks markets will decline, and stock values disappear in a blink of the eye. Businesses will begin layoffs in earnest which will soon be reflected in the unemployment rate and unemployment claims, to further solidify the recession. In fact, when the FED cut rates, it will signify that the Titanic is going under, and it will suck everything down. Retail and housing sales will truly decline as consumer hold off their purchases. The inverted yield curve will then turn positive, but remember, certain assets like stocks and Crypto’s acts as a hedge. Long & short-term trading is generally safer, allowing investors to weather market volatility. I have managed to grow a nest egg of around 130k to a decent 532k in the space of a few months... I'm especially grateful to Loraine Souvenir, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.

Is the increase in profit margins due to automation and the reduction in labor costs?

Ed, Eric Thanks. You discuss many items I am concerned about with Trump 2.0. Trump has a lot of fascist and retribution ideas which may cause a lot of turbulence in the economy which is under estimated. It is amazing to see how high and fast the ten year has gone up. I am hoping the Fed can continue to reduce rates slowly and the economy will expand. I have a lot of labor concerns also which you touched on.

The country voted with a hurting economy mindset - and this video is a tone deaf ‘everything is fine’ presentation. Ed is acting like a perma bull. The incoming admin is looking for austerity in govt spending to cut excess and yet everyone is calling for more inflation!

Ed Yardeni always has great analysis

Thank You

Approaching the end of the business cycle, with massive debt refinancing events just around the corner has an obvious impact for markets in 2025-2026.😮

Republicans want to onshore industry, yet they want to deport millions of cheap labourers. Wtf!😂

Thanks for the analysis! Just a quick off-topic question: I have a SafePal wallet with USDT, and I have the seed phrase. (alarm fetch churn bridge exercise tape speak race clerk couch crater letter). Could you explain how to move them to Binance?

Thank you for the insights.

Re: Animal Spirits. Are you following BTC? That’s the Trump Trade. Not stocks.

Ed & Eric, Assuming the Trump admin is able to enact the aggressive tariffs it campaigned on…apart from the inflationary impact you discussed, wouldn’t retaliatory tariffs that other countries would likely put on US exports also negatively affect US GDP growth?

Would love to see a chart with Market Growth, GDP growth, Tax cuts and Debt growth…how much debt had to take on for the growth we actually achieve! The compounding of debt is the number one worry for me…and if we don't know why I recommend a serious class in compound growth over time.

Musk dilemma. His various business interests receive a lot of government subsidies and tax write-offs. Many related to our national security. The question is not cutting costs so much but will Musk go after competitors subsidies and interests leaving his interests untouched? This conflict of interest will be a dance not so easily solved. Will be interesting to see what happens. Innovation is always desired but getting there is another story.

(1:55) CHADS ON THE FLOOR

Let me quote Mr. Yardeni from January 2008 in article in NYTimes titled: "To Some, the Widening Crisis Seems Driven by Fear, Not Facts": 1) “I don’t think it’s warranted by the fundamentals,” 2) “The resilience of the global economy in the face of a credit crunch has been impressive.” So yeah... Then Mr. Yardeni didn't admit to be wrong up to end of March 2008, it was 4th month of recession. Everyone should be cautious with Mr. Yardeni predictions. There is a lot of perma-bears, but there are also perma-bulls like Mr. Yardeni.

Deportation is a terrible waste of tax payer money. If we are serious about rebuilding a manufacturing industry we should send them to work in building factories and working in them to pay off the material costs before deporting them.

"Fasten your seat belts..." th-cam.com/video/3vEEh0GF_C8/w-d-xo.html

If the southern border were secure, there would be no need for any deportations.

Intesesting and usefull discussion. Continued productivity and efficiency gains in the economy and US society are paramount.

Ed-Eric- Thanks. I think you are very optimistic about Trump 2.0! Tarries will cause inflation. The bond market is telling us that. Your trends are based on the history of the Biden admin. Taxes will take over a year to be approved unless they do those earlier (possible). Trump is picking loyalists not qualified enough role force r his cabinet. New FCC chair will be very positive I think.

For the market, it’s all about profit margins! 🙏

Everyone is in fantasy land. There are two sides to a story. The key issue is, will the dollar be stronger or weaker. The present rally is based on a strong dollar drawing liquidity into US. You cut taxes that reduces revenue = higher deficit. You deport cheap labour= higher labour cost. You impose high tariffs = higher prices. So the prescription is for higher inflation. That leads to a weaker dollar

Predicting inflation starting to rise again this quarter while leading indicators showing economy slowing (not to mention governm*nt figures pumped up for the election). Global economy very weak which affects US. Fed dropping rates 0.50 shows they're VERY worried about financial downturn/crisis. interest rates coming down are also an indication banks are LESS willing to loan money into existence. The question here is where is the inflation going to come from in the near term? Consumers are mostly tapped out which is 70% of US economy (consumption). Yes inflation very likely to return but not before it continues to come down... Inflation can be a concern, but remember, certain assets like stocks and Crypto’s acts as a hedge. Long & short-term trading is generally safer, allowing investors to weather market volatility. I have managed to grow a nest egg of around 3.2 B'tc to a decent 27B'tc in the space of a few months... I'm especially grateful to Seren Wintersun, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.

!I just switched up my Roth IRA to 50% SCHD, 25% SCHX, 25% SCHG, and my Roth 401k is 70% vanguard S&P 500 index, 20% vanguard growth index, and 10% vanguard international index. Seeking best possible ways to grow $350k into $2m+ before retirement.

The young Gent' Eric is quite good!

This moron has no clue even about the basics of economics, bc these ass%% won’t have a job if the mkt tanks to where it should 🤣😂 What a jackass 🤣😃

Ed Yardeni has been doing great in his prognostications

Sure now that BankTrump Calamity Dummy Don is in raise target and rising debt and and Tariffs are good.

What if China doesn’t care about the 60% tariff? Is Trump going to raise it to 120%, or 200%??? Can US bond market hold up? Can US Stock market hold up? What happens to Trump’s rhetoric, then?

arent tariffs on everything a bad idea lol

So their story is still that labor market trends will reverse on a dime, eh

What about trump’s economic policies increasing the federal debt by $ 7.75 trillion. Why do you ignore that fact completely? Very irresponsible!!

Great insights - thank you!

Great discussion - subscribed! I do have a question if that's still ok. We are seeing rates actively being cut, and yields increasing; my question is: Can we measure what impact a T-bill sell-off from legitimate market participants with a strong incentive to sell has on the yield increase? IE, could it be that it's not Bond Vigilantes that are selling, but Insurance Companies offloading surplus in response to the Hurricanes, and Banks fire-selling to stay liquid (SVB-scenario, for ex). We measured the impact of hurricanes on labor - what's the measurement on the impact of hurricanes on the bond market when we know we have an estimated $130 bn disaster that needs to be covered with existing surplus. Thank you!

This content is always stellar. One of the few macro guys I genuinely respect

As for RATES, Powell seems to be chasing the Two Year, which today is near 4.254

The wild upward revisions are due entirely on Trumps Tax Cuts. That should be obvious as REVENUE increase are a direct result of INFLATION which is still at 3.3%. Powell is likely to decrease rates again to keep INFLATION HIGHER FOR LONGER. He knows damned well what he is doing, and it is criminal. INFLATION, TARIFFS (which is a shadow tax on consumers) and wages not keeping up with inflation are not good metrics. Wall Street is only looking at PROFITS, and those won’t come from burdened consumers, they’ll come from 6% corporate tax cut. Absolutely irresponsible given the $36 trillion debt load and criminal to the consumer.

Government employment is covering up the weakness in the labor market with debt

Ed, Eric. I am regular listener. It is now 11/12 and the market has increased significantly due to Trump’s unexpected. landslide win. My worry is that investors are way underestimating inflation next year after Trump takes over. Trump opinion of Powell makes no sense. He says he is political for reducing rates in Sept ., but yet wants input in foreign true rate decisions and wants rates lower. Bonds are saying no rates should increase. Can you discuss these items in next broadcast? despite significant tarriffs.

You guys are doing an excelent job, thanks thanks thanks!! Best regards from spain!

Polls in America are not independent - polls in America are meant to influence and manipulate

Polls are meant to influence, not inform.

This sh#%head doesn’t even know his facts right🤣Buffett said 1/1 mkt Cap to GDP not 2🤣😂who pays for this ass%^ & for what? Buffett indicator is not a genius concept 🤣😂it is simple math anyone w basic math & economics can prove 🤣😂 This moron is so despicable, he doesn’t even know that he is BSin through his ass 🤣😂

This moron is so overrated that now it shouldn’t be surprising to anyone why the criminal WS thrives bc IT IS ALL ABOUT RELATIVE BSING🤣😂 This moron is the quintessential sample of this country & the moron made out like a bandit for decades spewing massive BS, but not even with a basic grasp of the economics of the economy 🤣😂

If Elon and others manage to get spending reined in by cutting waste I feel there's a real chance long term yields may actually start peaking in the next several months, tax cuts not withstanding. Thoughts?

The real workers told the elites to go phuck themselves.

My concern is that Trump has an established reputation for not respecting creditors. So if I were a foreign government/authority I'd hold off buying US bonds until Trump establishes his ability to meet his bond yield payment schedule from tax receipts/GDP. What I want to see is if Trump can only meet bond yield payments by issuing more bonds while at the same time cutting his tax base as promised in his lower taxes for the rich. As a foreign government I wouldn't want the risk of Trump defaulting on bond payments.

I'd want more like 6% for 5 year and 8% for a 10-year just to account for inflation. See no point in 4.3% if inflation is going to be bouncing between 3 and 5% or higher

The US economy is already in recession. Any rate cut will not ignite inflation. The banks will tighten even more, all consumer and corporate credit lending. This is the beginning of a deflationary period for your assets. Stocks markets will decline, and stock values disappear in a blink of the eye. Businesses will begin layoffs in earnest which will soon be reflected in the unemployment rate and unemployment claims, to further solidify the recession. In fact, when the FED cut rates in Sept, it will signify that the Titanic is going under, and it will suck everything down. Retail and housing sales will truly decline as consumer hold off their purchases. The inverted yield curve will then turn positive, but remember, certain assets like stocks and Crypto’s acts as a hedge. Long & short-term trading is generally safer, allowing investors to weather market volatility. I have managed to grow a nest egg of around 130k to a decent 532k in the space of a few months... I'm especially grateful to Milton Harper, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.