The US economy is already in recession. Any rate cut will not ignite inflation. The banks will tighten even more, all consumer and corporate credit lending. This is the beginning of a deflationary period for your assets. Stocks markets will decline, and stock values disappear in a blink of the eye. Businesses will begin layoffs in earnest which will soon be reflected in the unemployment rate and unemployment claims, to further solidify the recession. In fact, when the FED cut rates in Sept, it will signify that the Titanic is going under, and it will suck everything down. Retail and housing sales will truly decline as consumer hold off their purchases. The inverted yield curve will then turn positive, but remember, certain assets like stocks and Crypto’s acts as a hedge. Long & short-term trading is generally safer, allowing investors to weather market volatility. I have managed to grow a nest egg of around 100k to a decent 432k in the space of a few months... I'm especially grateful to Sandy Barclays, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.
Over the years, I've been a part of numerous trading programs, sifting through a barrage of information. Yet, nothing has come close to the sheer clarity, depth, and precision of Sandy insights. It's akin to finding a diamond in a coal mine.
Sandy Barclays understanding of market indicators is impressive. She knows exactly when to enter and exit trades for maximum profit. Her siignals are top notch..
I wish I knew what Mr. Yardeni means about the productivity number. I tend to feel since labor is an operational cost, then lowering labor cost increases productivity.
Guys, been a subscriber for just a couple months. Love it. Long Term Bloomberg Surveillance viewer as well. Any thoughts about moving your material to substack ?
@16:50 "If you look at this one specific metric, which is just based on estimates, valuations aren't as bad as they were at the top of the 2000 and 2021 bubbles". OK.
You mention, historically, productivity augments labor markets. What of A.I. generated productivity? Some analysts have estimated Bidenomics has added as much as 2% to GDP. Agree? If so, the current definition of a recession might not show itself even though a recession is in play.
Regardless of their intention to being apolitical, any attention to fiscal policy by the Fed would be interpreted as political which is why they may be ignoring it - for now.
Sometimes I can't understand investors' logic. The US government reports 3% GDP growth and this is proof the US economy is nowhere near recession. At the same time the Chinese economy is growing at a reported rate of 4.7% and people offhandedly say that China is in a "massive recession". I know there are issues with the Chinese numbers, but there are issues with the US numbers too. You can't have if both ways.
It's generally acknowledged that the Chinese economy is smaller than claimed by the PRC. But no one knows the exact number. Light emission studies indicate the economy in China is ~60% what the PRC claims.
The student loan free lunch is about to pay the piper and those kids are Fddddd. Theyll keep spending money they dont have for awhile more but then its bye bye.
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Great points on Powell at the end:)
Excellent discussion - especially the importance of productivity gains.
That's China exporting deflation..
The US economy is already in recession. Any rate cut will not ignite inflation. The banks will tighten even more, all consumer and corporate credit lending. This is the beginning of a deflationary period for your assets. Stocks markets will decline, and stock values disappear in a blink of the eye. Businesses will begin layoffs in earnest which will soon be reflected in the unemployment rate and unemployment claims, to further solidify the recession. In fact, when the FED cut rates in Sept, it will signify that the Titanic is going under, and it will suck everything down. Retail and housing sales will truly decline as consumer hold off their purchases. The inverted yield curve will then turn positive, but remember, certain assets like stocks and Crypto’s acts as a hedge. Long & short-term trading is generally safer, allowing investors to weather market volatility. I have managed to grow a nest egg of around 100k to a decent 432k in the space of a few months... I'm especially grateful to Sandy Barclays, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.
She mostly interacts on Telegrams, using the user-name.
@SandyBarclays
The market has gone berserk! whether you're a newbie or a veteran trader, everyone needs a sort of coach at some point to thrive forward.
Over the years, I've been a part of numerous trading programs, sifting through a barrage of information. Yet, nothing has come close to the sheer clarity, depth, and precision of Sandy insights. It's akin to finding a diamond in a coal mine.
Sandy Barclays understanding of market indicators is impressive. She knows exactly when to enter and exit trades for maximum profit. Her siignals are top notch..
I wish I knew what Mr. Yardeni means about the productivity number. I tend to feel since labor is an operational cost, then lowering labor cost increases productivity.
Guys, been a subscriber for just a couple months. Love it. Long Term Bloomberg Surveillance viewer as well. Any thoughts about moving your material to substack ?
Is that an old Monroe Trader Calculator on Ed's desk ?
@16:50 "If you look at this one specific metric, which is just based on estimates, valuations aren't as bad as they were at the top of the 2000 and 2021 bubbles". OK.
You mention, historically, productivity augments labor markets. What of A.I. generated productivity? Some analysts have estimated Bidenomics has added as much as 2% to GDP. Agree? If so, the current definition of a recession might not show itself even though a recession is in play.
Regardless of their intention to being apolitical, any attention to fiscal policy by the Fed would be interpreted as political which is why they may be ignoring it - for now.
Sometimes I can't understand investors' logic. The US government reports 3% GDP growth and this is proof the US economy is nowhere near recession. At the same time the Chinese economy is growing at a reported rate of 4.7% and people offhandedly say that China is in a "massive recession". I know there are issues with the Chinese numbers, but there are issues with the US numbers too. You can't have if both ways.
It's generally acknowledged that the Chinese economy is smaller than claimed by the PRC. But no one knows the exact number. Light emission studies indicate the economy in China is ~60% what the PRC claims.
I’m not sure, my thoughts are its rate of change they talk about and not headline inflation.
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The student loan free lunch is about to pay the piper and those kids are Fddddd. Theyll keep spending money they dont have for awhile more but then its bye bye.