Ed, Eric. Good to hear your comments again this week. I agree with your analysis of 1-2 rate reductions this year. I think growth will continue to grow low and steady. Politics is the wild card! I think the market wants .50% this week but Powell would never go to .50% after fighting inflation for so long. It is much higher than inflation and good to see the de-inversion. Hopefully, employment holds or they will have pressure to drop further.
Bull steepener or bear steepener (recession or goldilock, soft vs. hard landing in other words), that's the big question. PS: Portofino and Lake Como! Great choices, heading to Bellagio right now for a Sunday passeggiata.
What kind of trader/investors would still be stuck in the JPY carry trade? Wouldn't all professionals know what's up and coming? And it can't be substantial for retail, can it?
Like all wealthy people Ed doesn't get out and see what the deplorables are experiencing. But, even the cheerleading financial press and Wall Street should see that layoffs are Not muted. Recession is here.
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Ed's mic is the problem. Sounds like it's in a box on the other side of the room. But great content!
Thank you for sharing so much information and valuable insight.
So if Fed does a 50 point cut next week and markets rally. Are you going to reverse your fed normalization prediction and cutting will be bullish?
i am not liking these sharp selloff/rebounds
Thank you - always great insights!
Ed, Eric. Good to hear your comments again this week. I agree with your analysis of 1-2 rate reductions this year. I think growth will continue to grow low and steady. Politics is the wild card! I think the market wants .50% this week but Powell would never go to .50% after fighting inflation for so long. It is much higher than inflation and good to see the de-inversion. Hopefully, employment holds or they will have pressure to drop further.
This week Yen went a up a ton and nasdaq too... so something different is playing...
last week was horrible... absolute horror show
Bull steepener or bear steepener (recession or goldilock, soft vs. hard landing in other words), that's the big question.
PS: Portofino and Lake Como! Great choices, heading to Bellagio right now for a Sunday passeggiata.
What kind of trader/investors would still be stuck in the JPY carry trade? Wouldn't all professionals know what's up and coming? And it can't be substantial for retail, can it?
Probably some (or several) hedge fund that manage a few billions?
Cheap money is a serious drug
Man you are quite bearish today.. last week did a number on you...
MAX!
layoffs muted ... LOL tell that to the 12k ups is gunning because of high union wages...
Like all wealthy people Ed doesn't get out and see what the deplorables are experiencing. But, even the cheerleading financial press and Wall Street should see that layoffs are Not muted. Recession is here.
Keep relying on the Bureau of Lying Statistics and see how far your analysis will be worth anything.