@@marcinmm3644Ruud finished just outside the top 10 so wasn’t that bad. As for FAA, I personally would’ve had him like #10 or just outside, but no one expected him to be this bad tbf
Discounting Nadal he is predicting the top 10 will be the same as now, that is very unlikely but he doesn't seem to want to spend energy in analysing who may break in.
@@zy9662 I agree. I’m always rooting for the US Men as an American. I think it’s a bit shocking to think that Gil will have Nadal from 670 to 10 and discount Fritz, Paul, Tiafoe, or Shelton who are all right there. And they’re young, Nadal is pushing 40.
@@JamminOnThe1 also Korda, who is the more talented of the bunch. Personally I see Rublev and Tsitsipas out of the top 10 and another one by injury. Also I'm surprised by the lack of a new gen of top young Russians. Umbert can make the surprise move to the top 10, he has the best record against top 10 of all current players
Gil possesses a manifest love for tennis and he sure is great to listen to for us who know so much less than he does about the more subtle aspects of the game. It's people like him who keep the off-court world of tennis special.
I think Ruud is gonna have a bounce back year, and I’d put him top 10. It’s an unpopular opinion, but I think his game is super underrated when he plays his best. He has a lot of offensive weapons and great movement to pair with it, he just needs to get out of his own head and trust his game. Also Ruud is built for best of 5. His conditioning and fitness should get him to the 2nd week alone, and from there he can play with that underdog, “just happy to be here” mentality like at RG. And even if he only plays well during the clay season, that’s enough to make the top 10. The clay court field feels a little weaker right now. Djokovic was better 10 years ago on clay than he is now, and also is always out of form at Monte Carlo and Barcelona. Alcaraz is obviously a force on clay, but then we have Tsitsipas who has gotten worse on clay, and Nadal… who knows what form he’s in now. Clay courts are wide open; Ruud could even steal a Monte Carlo win or just make a bunch of deep runs. And I wouldn’t be shocked to see him go deep at RG again.
Problem with Ruud is, when he is facing the players ranking 20-50, such as Echevery, Shevchenko, Umbert, sorry might spell name wrong here, but how much chance he is going to win? I usually see him only have 50-60%. With this kind of winning percentage against relatively lower ranking opponents, it will be hard to go deep in big tournaments.
Props to you Gill for still putting out great content for us tennis fans even on Christmas day. Would love to see your WTA version of your top ten prediction for 2024 as we head to 2024.
My prediction: 1. Sinner 2. Djokovic 3. Alcaraz 4. Medvedev 5. Zverev 6. Rublev 7. Hurkacz 8. Rune 9. Tsitsipas 10. Fritz I don't know where to rank Nadal because I don't know how healthy he's gonna be.. So I decided to leave him out. I wanna rank Rune a bit higher, but looking at him in the AO, I'm not convinced he has improved much from last year.
What a great Christmas gift for us all Gill! This is probably my favorite video of the year. Merry Christmas to you and your whole family! Looking forward to a great year of tennis!
I feel like considering how much I like his work ethic and general attitude I'd gladlt get my top 10 predictions wrong while picking Rublev to be top 10 for the next 10 years I think he's earned his spot there
I watched some of Nadal's practices and I have to say his movement looks great. Not good, but great considering the situation. He still looks light on his feet and I remember one point specifically against Arthur Fils where he chased down a drop shot that even the fastest players in the world would find difficult to catch, and everybody including Fils was surprised. Many people think he'll be looking like Andy Murray next year, and I think that's a bit naive. Rafa is not coming back to settle with being in top 50.
there is a MONSTROUS difference between top 50 and top 10... The BIG question is, can Nadal sustain a high level over 12 months? VERY hard to tell, with just one practice game against Fils.
I think the one thing that will make a huge difference is whether Nadal can actually stay healthy enough to compete in a full season. I think Gill's assumption that he will is over-optimistic. Nadal only knows one way to play -- all out. That's likely to prevent him playing a full schedule, and I can't see him finishing top 10 unless he wins a significant number of matches outside of clay court season.
@@constructionnetwork6858 He had plenty of practices with Fills and other players like Gasquet, Struff, Ruusuvouri and Munar. The real test will be in matches, but preparation is very important aswell.
If Ben Shelton doesn't cave into the pressure of being a top athlete and have his so-called "sophomore year slump" in 2024, I think he'll crack the top ten. May be just make it inside the top 10.
You nailed it with Sinner! Seeing him excel in the outdoor best-of-five slams would be what will define his season. The anticipation for both him and Rune is sky-high; one of them could very well be the next new Grand Slam winner. I'm thrilled you brought up Draper-his game is outstanding. I'm with you on 2024 could be his breakout year; he's just too talented to miss out!
Gill are you coming to Australia? Your room is all made up and ready for you. The monday match analysis bed sheets have been pressed, ironed and neatly set upon your king sized bed. Might I add I took the liberty of taking screen shots of your glorious face and printing them out so I can decorate your new room. My parents have been notified of your arrival and are also looking forward to meeting my new best friend and most proficient technical tennis analyst on TH-cam. I'll see you soon Gilly Boy, much love and happy hannukah and new years to you too
"He hasn't had a moment at a slam that he can really draw confidence from." Welp. Learning curve accomplished! (Not a dig btw. You're my tennis-analyzing hero. Just fun to look back.)
My predictions are: 1. Djokovic 2. Alcaraz 3. Sinner 4. Medvedev 5. Rune 6. Zverev 7. Rublev 8. Tsitsipas 9. Shelton 10. Hurkacz When watching I noticed how close my predictions are to Gill's but then again I watch a lot of his content, so it's not surprising. I'm really looking forward to the 2024 season and to see what the fight between Djokovic and the young guns will be like🔥🔥
I went for identical except I put Ruud at 10. I'm not sure I trust Hurkacz to play at the current level for long enough and thought Ruud had some shocking results he could *potentially* easily reverse. Almost went Hurkacz though
@@arcorke Yes it is certainly possible Ruud will get into the top ten, it mostly depends on his mindset and motivation. But yeah the 9 and 10 spots feel like they're hard to guess because there are multiple players who could make it if they play well next season.
When looking back at this, it's really interesting hom much my perspective on some of these players have changed. If you has asked me today what I would have guessed at the start of the year, I wouldn't have even thought that I put Rune on the list and that I put Zverev as low as he is. Also Fritz being no.4 in the world while he wasn't in the list.
Gil my Christmas gift to you is this: credit for your Medvedev pick. Alot of people were really starting to doubt him but you kept the faith in the octopus 👏🏼
Sinner has declared (very wisely) that his main goal for 2024 is to confirm fourth place in the ranking, you are predicting third and his most enthusiastic fans are predicting (or rather hoping for) number one. The only thing that I see as certain is the seriousness and dedication he puts into training, and the constant search for improvement.
I was actually going to ask you to make a video like this, since I thought given Nadal's situation, u basically made 6/10 correct and the rest weren't that far off either :) good job
I think Arnaldi is primed to make a big leap next year. His serve is a huge liability but the tools from the baseline are amazing. He also seems to have a very strong mental game.
Thanks Gill for another year's presentation of top 10 players. The result was very accurate last year with 4 of 10 match exactly the real rankings. Amazing. This year I truly believe Gill's prediction will be similarly accurate. I also think the below rankings prediction might work as well based on my observation and obvious with the insight from Gill's videos. 1. Sinner 2. Alcaraz 3. Djokovic 4. Zverev 5. Medvedev 6. Rune 7. Rublev 8. Tsitsipas 9. Hurkacz 10 Shelton. Reason is, for top 3, I actually agree with Gill's, but I think any rotation of the three players will be possible as they are all on their prime, with Sinner is on the highest gear to win a lot of tournaments and Djokovic will win more GS and Alcaraz in between. Zverev is on the rise so I think he will take over Medvedev as he will play more tournaments and will have better overall results than Meddy. Rune still needs time to adjust his mindset and technics even under Becker's coaching. Shelton is a promising star and he will take the place of Fritz. For Rafa, I don't know where to put him as he is too unpredictable. He could win the French open and push into top five or he could quit in middle of season due to injury. So he is left out here.
I wouldn't be shocked if this is the year that Djokovic doesn't finish number 1. He's been playing less outside the majors. Eventually, he has to have a major tournament or two where that costs him and he's not as dialed in. That said I can't say who will eclipse him and I can imagine him winning 2 or 3 of his 5 biggest tournaments of the year (the Grand Slams and the Olympics) and 2 Masters 1,000's. If no one monopolizes the rest of the points, that might be enough to keep the top spot.
Nadal #26? Not a chance, unless injured again. No way healthy Nadal is #26..He might as well quit now, but he won't end the year #26 unless he does not play the clay season..no points to defend...He could win almost 5000 points alone before Wimbledon...
Did anyone see the post-match interview for Rublev where he said he’s the “real father” of Medvedev’s daughter 💀💀 Medvedev was sitting on the bench in the background looking confused and awkward, his wife was laughing hysterically in the audience
@@Jalleur14325I honestly feel like Rublev was saying he spends so much time with Medvedev’s baby and loves her so much that he feels like he’s the father, but it just came out completely wrong
My predictions: 1. Carlos Alcaraz 2. Novak Djokovic 3. Jannik Sinner 4. Holger Rune 5. Daniil Medvedev 6. Alexander Zverev 7. Andrey Rublev 8. Taylor Fritz 9. Hubert Hurkacz 10. Jiri Lehecka Some notes: - Lehecka could be a big hit-or-miss, to be honest I only put him in because his ranking trajectory seemed very high and I couldn't figure out who else to put there. - I have Tsitsipas falling out of the top 10, I just think his off-court distractions are going to be too much for him to handle in 2024. - Nadal is a big wild card, but imo a top 10 finish to what he said would be his last year on tour, seems a bit too much of an ask for me. - I favour Carlos a bit more than Novak because I just think he has a bit more room for improvement and he will be super motivated to get back the No. 1 spot from Novak.
Some extra thoughts after one day: - I don't think Novak will be quite as motivated going into 2024 as compared to 2023, because there were a lot of things that worked against Novak in 2022 that aren't a factor now. For starters, Novak got deported from Australia and banned from entering the US because of his vaccination status. This only ended up driving him to come back with a vengeance and win both of those Slams. Also, he went into 2023 with 21 Slams compared to Rafa's 22, so there was extra motivation to try and surpass Rafa's Slam tally. But now that Rafa is nowhere near his best Novak has basically locked up the Slam race, so the motivation to win more Slams can only come from within himself. - Another think to note is that Djokovic is probably going to prioritise the Olympics even more than the Slams, which would mean diverting attention away from the Slams. In fact, I am predicting he is going to skip Wimbledon next year to focus on the Olympics, because that would give him more clay-court prep time and because even though his body continues to defy age I don't think it can handle 3 big tournaments in the span of just 3 months. Also, an 8th Wimbledon title is probably much less important to him than an Olympics gold. If that does indeed happen, it would create an opportunity for Carlos to gain an advantage over him in ranking points.
Reasons why I think Djokovic won't end #1 in 2024. I don't like that you didn't even really talk about these points apart from the first one, Gill. 1: logic would dictate that injuries are becoming more and more likely 2: The Olympics being his main focus, he will likely have to sacrifice focus, energy and stamina in the 3 summers slams in order to be at his best at the Olympics. 3: The triad of Sinner-Alcaraz-Rune are only getting better with each year, and they will make it harder on Novak than they did in 2023 4: Novak plays less tournaments than the other guys, giving him less opportunity to earn points
Great content as always! The only name which I thought I'd see but did not was Davidovich Fokina, who didn't even make it to your Tier 3 (honorable-honorable mentions)... If he plays a healthy season, I think the guy is almost sure to make year-end Top 15 if not Top 10. All he needs is a few deep runs at the majors and Master 1000s.
Alcaraz will finish no.1. He'll likely be even better than this year and Djokovic will either decline slightly or at least play less tournaments. Alcaraz was on track to finish no.1 even this year until his level dropped massively after Wimbledon, and Djokovic had one of his best years of his career.
I'd say you were right if we were guaranteed to see a constant series of Alcaraz vs. Nole finals. However, because the rest of the tour is involved, I think Novak is still better situated to consistently win against Meddy, Sinner, Rune and the others.
@@HeavyTopspinAlcaraz doesn’t particularly struggle with the top players outside of Sinner, who he’s still 3-4 against. It’s more just about not having any slumps, and also he missed AO this year because of injury.
If Alcaraz continues with the same trend as in the last 3 months of 2023 then he will also lose second place in the ranking, now everything remains to be seen if and when he returns to his best levels of play and form
Men’s tennis is a very top-heavy sport, and I think people forget that you really don’t need to do much to finish in the top 10, relatively speaking of course. Nadal can finish #10 and still be ridiculed by Djokovic fans for being washed and having a horrible season by his standards. Why? Because all it takes is a few good tournaments. If he wins one Masters, a 250, and takes a bunch of early exits, that might just be enough. Fritz was #10 this year and we barely heard his name throughout the season. Or if Nadal can just consistently make QFs, that’ll be enough. So if Nadal can stay healthy, I still think he can make deep runs at a couple majors, do well at the clay Masters, and probably do enough to sneak in the top 10. Remember, Federer at age 41 coming off knee surgeries managed to make Wimbledon QFs and the 4th round at RG (where he withdrew). The big 3 even heavily compromised still can be among the last 8 players.
I'd love it if you could also list the top 20, without ordering/ranking them but still say who you think would be top players outside the top ten. Thanks for an interesting tennis commentary year and happy new year!
I have to feel you're way off on Rafa for one reason: even though his protected ranking will keep him out of needing to qualify, he's still going to have to face seeded players a LOT earlier than he's had to since he was a teenager. So instead of the relatively easy path to the quarters that a top-5 seed can expect, he could wind up facing top players in early rounds, and be far less likely to find himself in the semis or even finals of Masters and Grand Slams without having to face top opponents. Not to mention that Rafa's pride isn't going to let him take the path of Stan and Andy; I'd wager anything less than the finals at RG and he begins his "farewell tour". I'll be the first to admit I'm wrong if he returns playing like the Rafa we know, but personally I have a hard time seeing him cracking the top 20. And anyone throwing out "but Djokovic" arguments, remember that Novak's ranking didn't slip because he played poorly in 2022, it was because he wasn't allowed to play in half of the top events; he was 22-7 with 5 titles while Rafa hasn't played a competitive point of tennis in over 11 months.
Yes, while on the one hand I feel I am not anyone to predict what Rafa can or can't achieve, as he is capable of pushing himself to incredible limits. But at the same time watching the very top players, I have a hard time believing that he can knock them out to win the big titles he used to.
You simply can't compare Rafa and Novak at this point, as Novak never was out of play for 1 year due to injury as Rafa was. I agree, I too have a hard time seeing him cracking the top 20 again. Let's see what's happens, but if he loses early in AUS Open and the other tournament early season, I don't see him take the path of Murray and Stan either.
@@Jalleur14325It has nothing to do with the top players. They’re just as good as they were a decade ago, probably slightly worse, when Nadal made a huge injury comeback in 2013. It has everything to do with Nadal’s age. His mobility has gone down and he may not be the same player all around. But none of us can know for sure what Nadal will bring. Hell, his forehand is so good he might win RG just from that shot alone. He more or less did that last year and almost did in 2021.
Just a reminder that, if he keeps a limited schedule, Djokovic will need to defend every grand slam he won last year plus a few masters to keep the number 1.
IF he add participation in Indian Wells, Miami, Canada and Shangai it would be still semi limited schedule , with 0 points to defend at all four. And still Madrid in reserve pocket with Monte Carlo only 90 points to defend. My point is a lot of places where Novak could add points if needed. 9 seasons with over 11000 points should give us more faith in his ability.
Defending points doesn’t influence whether you finish the year at #1. Everyone starts with a clean slate, whether they won as much as Djokovic did last year, or if they won as much as Dominic Thiem did last year. Anything else would be unfair. I think a lot of people don’t understand how defending points works. I still remember in 2021 when Djokovic tanked a match against Sonego at a 250, lost 1-6 2-6, and a bunch of Djokovic fans tried to convince me it was a “genius move” because Djokovic didn’t want to defend those points next year. Which is super dumb. Say Djokovic had 10,250 points next year because he won that 250, and then lost the 250 points because he didn’t bother to defend it. He’d have 10,000 points then. Now let’s say he didn’t win that 250, he’d have 10,000 points the next year, and would not lose the extra 250 points. The end result: still 10,000 points, just in the first scenario, Djokovic had the extra 250 points for a full year. Objectively speaking, it is always better to have more points than less points. Not a hard concept to grasp.
I made my predictions a couple of weeks ago and got the same people on 1-5 as you. Went for 6. Rublev 7. Shelton 8. Zverev 9. Hubi 10. Dimitrov Can't wait for the 2024 season!
Just saw Rafa play, movement looks good..top 5? 15th Roland Garros? Fighting for other majors? Yes,yes, and yes! And I see Kachanov ahead of Tsisipas at the end of the year..
@@thomaswonderwood9826, I'm with you. Rafa looks like he's ready to go here. Gil made his prediction. Here's mine: Rafa Nadal wins two majors in 2024 and is Year End Number One.
@@colethomas903 The point is, even if Djokovic has great year, he won't play more than 12 events this year thus will not be able to collect no1 amount of points.
Rublev is not higher on ranking not due to his serve or return. His mindset, his self-confidence, his stillness are not good enough. He doesn’t have what it takes to win top 5 players in Grand Slams. He gets mad too easily.
1. Alcaraz 2. Sinner 3. Djokovic 4. Medvedev 5. Rune 6. Zverev 7. Tsitsipas 8. Rublev 9. Ruud 10. Fils 11. Draper 12. Shelton 13. FAA 14. Hurkacz 15. Nadal These are my top 15 predictions for 2024. I definitely don’t see Djokovic finishing number 1 at 37 and Nadal will barely crack the top 15 if that. Murray, Wawrinka, and Nadal all retire this year I believe
Zverev and Ruud both reached world no. 2 (I believe). However, they know they won't really have a name in the tennis history unless they get one major. Same for Sinner, who needs to start collecting slams. Sinner's talent level is way too high to *not* get at least 5 slams LOL.
1. Alcaraz 2. Sinner 3. Nole - Nole have to defend 3 GS + 1 GS final and ATP Finals plus Paris at the end of the year. And he have to deal with Olympic games. He can win points in Miami and Indian Wells, but i think he will focus on clay.
Hey gill, i have my predictions really similar to yours, except i have korda at the 10th spot, what do you think about the chances of him to enter the top 10?
Murray has the things that Rafa has, or at least close to it; the question is why he doesn't use them. He's just too stuck in the mindset that he can dominate the mathes by running. But hell, he's up there for one of the fastest forehands ever and could easily add pace without compromising consistency so much that it would be a net loss.
@@expoundamusTbh I’m not sure he finishes #1. He has to play near perfect like he did this year, and if Alcaraz plays any better than he did in 2023 he can take it anyways. Alcaraz, Medvedev, Sinner will all play more than Djokovic will.
Are u ignoring Djokovic finishhed the year with almost 2500 pts lead end of the day,its not even close, Indoor is alcaraz weakness,i just dont think alcaraz is a great post us open player,,u may say alcaraz missed ao but djok also missed sunshine double,,@@SJ-di5zu
Hi Gill idk know if this is asking for too much but I was wondering if u could do this for the WTA side as well. I feel that this current top 10, especially top 5 is really competitive with one another and I wonder how you would predict it to shape out. Great content as always and merry Christmas
Seems like sound predictions. Here's mine: 1. Novak Djokovic 2. Carlos Alcaraz 3. Yannick Sinner 4. Sasha Zverev 5. Daniil Medvedev 6. Rafa Nadal 7. Holger Rune 8. Andrey Rublev 9. Stefanos Tsitsipas 10. Ben Shelton I think Zverev has it in him to make that jump. Look at his rapid comeback from his injury. I predict less for Rune because I think he's still incredibly immature. He has the talent but not the maturity. My big prediction is obviously Shelton. I really foresee big things for Shelton, I really think we are going to see him winning multiple grand slams. If he's not top ten this year, I would put money on it for next year.
I think Nadal will finish well inside the top 10, maybe even closer to 5 than 10. He has too much talent and I don't think his movement has declined enough to prevent him from winning titles.
last week he played a practice match with gasquet(#76) in kuwait, gasquet won 2/3 sets, then he sd nadal wd have a hard time coming back to tour level play. and dont forget the real reason nadal took a whole year off, its bc his hrt/lngs were dmgd by the medspear, and that is not totally fixable. the foot, abtear/hip issues were minor and used as cover stories for the real reason, bc hes not allowed to say it openly. its the elephant in the room very few will admit. so if he cant beat #76 rank, i dont think hes going to fare well vs the top 10. he wont have endurance for running/bolting past the first or second set, especially vs the top 10.
@@jeremyneiderhoffDelusional? I just watched him take apart Theim in his first match back..He is coming for that French Title and he will be in the last four in 1 or 2 more..and anything can happen. He is not coming back to be mediocre..You are delusional to doubt the heart of a champion..
Djokovic above Alcaraz? I think you're being overly conservative here. This year Carlos was just an episode of cramps away from the number one. If he's not number 1 in 2024 I would be extremely surprised and disappointed.
Hey Gill, Great prediction for this year, 4 spot on and 2 +/- 1, it’s really good. I also have a very similar feel about the upcoming season: the current top-8s are really strong and I can’t see any of them dropping off drastically (maybe Tsitsipas due to another injury showed up in Turin, doesn’t look good), yet Hubi is pretty much there to grab that spot. I didn’t predict that Rafa will be in #10 but it is definitely a real possibility. I do have more doubt on Dimitrov and I would put Felix in his spot of the 11-16 mix base on the history of these two, that is the only thing that I doubt for this video. Really looking forward to the next seasons, definitely the most intriguing one for me to watch since Federer left the scene!
I absolutely love Gill’s analysis but I equally love that we’re 7 days into 2024 & Alex de Minaur has just proved the skeptics wrong & entered the Top 10 😂
Ruud and Shapo are both going to have one of their best ever years. I don't like your prediction for Ruud, one bad season isn't just going to carry over. I think also people have forgot Shapo, injury was the only thing keeping him out of top 20, and he's likely going to shock people by going top ten this year.
Gil you had a very similar top 10 to mine. The main difference is I had Ben Shelton as a surprise getting in and I didn’t have Nadal in mine. The other 9 you matched what I had but in a slightly different order. But we both had Djokovic #1!
I like Tsitsipas but I'm afraid to say he'll be out of top ten this season because of the backhand woes and as mentioned that everyone is aiming for that weakness. Some commentator had said after the Aus Open that Tsitsipas has stagnated and that is true
picking djokovic at no.1 is lowkey brave. i still think he will be the best player, but he will play reduced calendar, and will sacrifice some atp points for olympics pursuit
Merry Christmas Gill! Draper is a very interesting one, I'm intrigued to see what he can achieve this year. Re. Murray. I don't think Rafa will want that path for himself.
Hey Gill, Im happy you're broadcasting on Xmas Day.😊 I cant believe you are so defensive about your predictions and get so bothered by the Comments🤣 Who can predict anything? All the goons giving u a hard time know who is going to be out for months on injury? Or that one or other player takes a Great Leap Forward or crashes out backwards? Some players will advance bcos of those injured/crashed out - like Ruud reaching the RG Final and #5. No-one would have predicted that - and of course he's fallen back to his actual level. Predictions are best guesses. It's not a yes/no guess with a 50% chance of being right. So just forget about the goons who have nothing better to do than jeer a guy on YT and stop justifying/defending your best guesses. Keep sharing your thoughts -that's why we're all here. ❤
Yes Gill i agree with u that Novak is the GOAT and will break more of his own records next year including another 9th year end No. 1.. Poor Fedal only have 5. However i don't think he will win OG as he wants it to much. I means a lot to him as he is so patriotic, but the reality is the the OG gold means nothing in tennis and is a small title at best.. Merry Christmas.
I didn't think what you said about Nadal's serve was accurate. Many forget that Rafa bombed 135 MPH serves regularly at the 2010 US Open after changing his serve motion. In fact, he won that title easily and beat Djoker in the final in very convincing fashion. Rumor was that Nadal stopped serving this way for two reasons. First off, it was said Tony didn't like the serve guru they brought in for that tournament. Secondly, Rafa said the ball got back on him too fast because his FH is such a long stroke and it rushed him on that side and maybe hurt his first FH somewhat which is his most important shot. Other than that, I agree.
Just to throw in another possible Honourable - Ugo Humbert? He's steadily and systematically pulled his game and his mind back together to come back from outside the Top 100 to crack the Top 20 for the first time at the end of last season. He seems to have really gelled with Jeremy Chardy. He's traditionally had had nightmare first round GS draws (hello, Nick Kyrgios!) - he gets a good slam run (or two) this year and I think he's a dark horse to finish Top 10.
Tsitsipas will not finish as low as 8 haha. He had an awful year all things considered, it couldn't have gone more wrong and he still finished 6. He carried that shoulder injury all season and played through it.
It all comes down to if he can start this season strong. If he doesn’t at least make semis in Australia again, I have a feeling he will finish around #8. But if he does make the semis/final again, then he’d have to have a disastrous season to not finish higher than 8th. Also let’s see if he can have another strong clay season. 2022 was a little underwhelming, 2023 was worse. A strong clay season would change everything for Stef, especially because he’s historically quite terrible in the 2nd half of the season except the ATP Finals. But also factor in that the field is getting stronger. Rublev just came off his career best season and finished above Tsitsipas, Zverev will have a better season in 2024 without the slow start coming off injuries, Rune and Sinner are expected to improve as well. Tsitsipas simply will have a harder time clinging to that #6 spot than he did last year.
He was was in an exhibition in Abu Dhabi and he only played a couple of doubles matches with Badosa due to some health issue. His health will be very important especially since he has over 30% of his points to defend in Australia already ..
The picks may be boring Gill, but very logical too. You provided good reasoning for all your picks! Ofc you did have one wild card spicy pick in Nadal. There are too many unknowns after such a long injury lay off and surgery, so I guess that pick was ambitious and risky. So many exciting storylines headed into 2024! Nadal, Kyrgios, Djokovic, Sinner and Alcaraz are for me the most exciting!
I predict Alcaraz to finish no 1 simply because he almost did overtake Novak this year (in the indoor swing) after skipping Aus Open i.e. 2000 points, combined with the fact that he will obviously be a better player next year since he's so young. Djokovic is also playing fewer and fewer events each year and will go into 2024 defending the title for most of them.
Well. Considering Djokovic and Alcaraz game I don’t see him doing really well in Australia. And also he almost take Djokovic is because he did not play the finals the last year and could won a lo of points for it, which is almost the same that Australia. Also I believe Djkovic already plays very few tournaments and he will play almost the same the next year, and not even with that Alcaraz could catch him( Alcaraz played a lot, even not big tournaments) , and is Sinner that is his black sheep and is going to stop him for some things
Also sinner getting better in 24 will more affect to alcaraz than djokovic in 24 cz his playstyle and alcaraz will play more events than djokovic@@susanamontoyajaramillo4579
@@susanamontoyajaramillo4579 Why do you think Alcaraz won’t do well at the AO? He does well on fast outdoor hard courts like the USO (which has sped up a ton), Miami, and Cincinnati. He also won Wimbledon which is fast. Alcaraz is not a slow court specialist; he’s basically good on every surface and even made the semifinals at Turin which is the fastest surface on tour. Plus he plays well on every outdoor court. He literally went 47-4 from the start of the season until Wimbledon; the man was barely losing any matches. A lot of people felt he wasn’t gonna be good on grass yet he went 12-0 and beat Djokovic, Medvedev, Dimitrov, De Minaur, Rune, Berrettini, and Jarry. Let’s not doubt him again. Also Sinner isn’t a “black sheep” for Alcaraz. The H2H is still 3-4, and Sinner winning 2 500s and Davis Cup doesn’t make him suddenly a god level player. As for your argument about Djokovic playing few tournaments, it doesn’t really matter because Djokovic will still play few tournaments next year. He’s not getting younger and he won’t change his schedule.
Almost overtook Novak Djokovic this year? What are you talking about? The gap between them is about 2300 points, so even if Alcaraz reached the Australian Open final he'd still be far behind. For Alcaraz to end 2024 as #1 it should take both a notable improvement from Alcaraz and some decline on form from Djokovic, at the very least - in case Sinner doesn't make such a big step in his game.
Tsitsipas is an interesting one, I don't see how he can have a worse year than last year post-Melbourne. He should have his coaching team more stable this year, and he looked good in Paris. That being said, do I have any faith he can finish significantly higher than 8? Not at all.
I seen lots of Rune bc i love his volleys and overall energy and game. For me, Rune should work on creating more effortless angles and more often be able to pull the trigger DTL with his two hander. I know he can do both. But he needs to develope it more into his game so he makes even more winners. His BH lob could be better sometimes too, great but not Carlitoz/Djokovic/Murray level by no means. Only things imo. He could improve on, then shot selection sometimes at net which is mostly very good but goes cross court too often when running up to dropshots or net rollers. If he improves all of this including becoming as good outdoor player and indoors he will win slams i think. Guys like Federer/Rafa was masters at angles plus both had a money shot.. I´m not sure if Rune´s moneyshot now is his forehand, it´s world class like his BH but i miss he sometimes rolls his opponents over in Nalbandian fashion or rips/flicks a cross court forehand winners with same angles like Federer did plus he should be more dangerous DTL with his BH. He is, but even more i think. I think he can get there, to the level i just descirped, which would be equal to unplayable. But i think this year it will be Sinner or Medvedev one, Carlos one, Djokovic two. For women i say Gauff two, Iga one or two, Ons one. Lol. I go with Wozniacki winning US Open! I think she can. Something tells me she will do great things in 2024. Her short comeback in 2023 was amazing. Taking a set from Coco in US Open in quarter final. Coco was unplayable there so if Woz can improve even more she´s top 5-10 level.
I got Novak and Carlos right. And had Tsitsipas, Rune, Fritz, Medvedev, Sinner in the top 10, just not in the correct spots. I was wrong about FAA, Ruud, and Rafa.
I have enjoyed very much your whole presentation. Exceptional. Very well done. And btw.....your prediction of 2023 ended up being a very good one. For this 2024 I want to point out that Sinner might do very well for the first time in GS. He will get lots of points. Maybe he will finish .......higher than 3.
I dont think there is any sign that Djokovic has any signs of decline or disinterest so I think he will remain no.1 and win almost everything until he disappears I think he won't keep going for more that 1 season after Nadal leaves though considering he has all the records. I see Novak being no.1 this year and next year if nothing major happens and then he retires. The rest of the list seems solid and kind of predictable. Like the top 10 looks so similar to the top 10 the last 5 years just shuffled around
1.Djokovic 2.Hurkacz 💪🇵🇱 3.Sinner 4.Alcaraz 5.Medvedev 6.Rune 7.FAA 8.Rublev 9.Zverev 10.Shelton Ik it won’t happen but this would be the dream as a hurkacz fan 😂. Hopefully he can make it very deep into Wimbledon if he can avoid Djokovic early like he did this year.
The fact that you got 4 out of 10 is pretty impressive. Most other choices weren’t too far off. Nadal was 667 places off but he didn’t play last year.
Lol. He messed up with Rublev, felix and Rudd big time. And ofcourse nadal but that can be discounted.
@@marcinmm3644Ruud finished just outside the top 10 so wasn’t that bad. As for FAA, I personally would’ve had him like #10 or just outside, but no one expected him to be this bad tbf
Discounting Nadal he is predicting the top 10 will be the same as now, that is very unlikely but he doesn't seem to want to spend energy in analysing who may break in.
@@zy9662 I agree. I’m always rooting for the US Men as an American. I think it’s a bit shocking to think that Gil will have Nadal from 670 to 10 and discount Fritz, Paul, Tiafoe, or Shelton who are all right there. And they’re young, Nadal is pushing 40.
@@JamminOnThe1 also Korda, who is the more talented of the bunch. Personally I see Rublev and Tsitsipas out of the top 10 and another one by injury. Also I'm surprised by the lack of a new gen of top young Russians. Umbert can make the surprise move to the top 10, he has the best record against top 10 of all current players
Gil possesses a manifest love for tennis and he sure is great to listen to for us who know so much less than he does about the more subtle aspects of the game. It's people like him who keep the off-court world of tennis special.
Just watched this after Nitto ATP finals 2024, I can officially say Gill did not hit his targets 😂
I think Ruud is gonna have a bounce back year, and I’d put him top 10. It’s an unpopular opinion, but I think his game is super underrated when he plays his best. He has a lot of offensive weapons and great movement to pair with it, he just needs to get out of his own head and trust his game.
Also Ruud is built for best of 5. His conditioning and fitness should get him to the 2nd week alone, and from there he can play with that underdog, “just happy to be here” mentality like at RG.
And even if he only plays well during the clay season, that’s enough to make the top 10. The clay court field feels a little weaker right now. Djokovic was better 10 years ago on clay than he is now, and also is always out of form at Monte Carlo and Barcelona. Alcaraz is obviously a force on clay, but then we have Tsitsipas who has gotten worse on clay, and Nadal… who knows what form he’s in now. Clay courts are wide open; Ruud could even steal a Monte Carlo win or just make a bunch of deep runs. And I wouldn’t be shocked to see him go deep at RG again.
Problem with Ruud is, when he is facing the players ranking 20-50, such as Echevery, Shevchenko, Umbert, sorry might spell name wrong here, but how much chance he is going to win? I usually see him only have 50-60%. With this kind of winning percentage against relatively lower ranking opponents, it will be hard to go deep in big tournaments.
If anything, Ruud is overrated.
Its not your best game you should rely on, its the average one you build on. And his average game is around top 20.
@@tomaskopolia1031 And he lost in Rd 3 haha
Props to you Gill for still putting out great content for us tennis fans even on Christmas day.
Would love to see your WTA version of your top ten prediction for 2024 as we head to 2024.
High hopes for Draper. Hope he finally stays healthy this year because his game is so fun to watch.
My prediction:
1. Sinner
2. Djokovic
3. Alcaraz
4. Medvedev
5. Zverev
6. Rublev
7. Hurkacz
8. Rune
9. Tsitsipas
10. Fritz
I don't know where to rank Nadal because I don't know how healthy he's gonna be.. So I decided to leave him out.
I wanna rank Rune a bit higher, but looking at him in the AO, I'm not convinced he has improved much from last year.
bingo!
Thanks for the weekly videos, always really insightful. Keep it up boss man
What a great Christmas gift for us all Gill! This is probably my favorite video of the year. Merry Christmas to you and your whole family! Looking forward to a great year of tennis!
His family doesn't celebrate lmao
I wonder why@@jeremyneiderhoff
@@jeremyneiderhoff You’re telling me they’re Jehovah’s or something?
@@mfzoom5401 his last name is Gross, he went to Syracuse, and he’s from New York. You can’t put it together?
I feel like considering how much I like his work ethic and general attitude I'd gladlt get my top 10 predictions wrong while picking Rublev to be top 10 for the next 10 years I think he's earned his spot there
I watched some of Nadal's practices and I have to say his movement looks great. Not good, but great considering the situation. He still looks light on his feet and I remember one point specifically against Arthur Fils where he chased down a drop shot that even the fastest players in the world would find difficult to catch, and everybody including Fils was surprised. Many people think he'll be looking like Andy Murray next year, and I think that's a bit naive. Rafa is not coming back to settle with being in top 50.
His round 2 loss at the A. Open is going to hit like crack.
there is a MONSTROUS difference between top 50 and top 10... The BIG question is, can Nadal sustain a high level over 12 months? VERY hard to tell, with just one practice game against Fils.
I think the one thing that will make a huge difference is whether Nadal can actually stay healthy enough to compete in a full season. I think Gill's assumption that he will is over-optimistic. Nadal only knows one way to play -- all out. That's likely to prevent him playing a full schedule, and I can't see him finishing top 10 unless he wins a significant number of matches outside of clay court season.
@@constructionnetwork6858 He had plenty of practices with Fills and other players like Gasquet, Struff, Ruusuvouri and Munar. The real test will be in matches, but preparation is very important aswell.
@@franciscoesteves1561Djokovic fanboys try not to be assholes for 5 minutes challenge (impossible)
If Ben Shelton doesn't cave into the pressure of being a top athlete and have his so-called "sophomore year slump" in 2024, I think he'll crack the top ten. May be just make it inside the top 10.
I can see that as well. How does your top 10 look like?
Thank you, Gill. This was great. So looking forward to what's coming up and following your reactions and comments.
You nailed it with Sinner! Seeing him excel in the outdoor best-of-five slams would be what will define his season. The anticipation for both him and Rune is sky-high; one of them could very well be the next new Grand Slam winner.
I'm thrilled you brought up Draper-his game is outstanding. I'm with you on 2024 could be his breakout year; he's just too talented to miss out!
Gill are you coming to Australia? Your room is all made up and ready for you. The monday match analysis bed sheets have been pressed, ironed and neatly set upon your king sized bed. Might I add I took the liberty of taking screen shots of your glorious face and printing them out so I can decorate your new room. My parents have been notified of your arrival and are also looking forward to meeting my new best friend and most proficient technical tennis analyst on TH-cam. I'll see you soon Gilly Boy, much love and happy hannukah and new years to you too
😂
These are officially my favorite comments on this channel 💀💀
"He hasn't had a moment at a slam that he can really draw confidence from." Welp. Learning curve accomplished! (Not a dig btw. You're my tennis-analyzing hero. Just fun to look back.)
My predictions are:
1. Djokovic
2. Alcaraz
3. Sinner
4. Medvedev
5. Rune
6. Zverev
7. Rublev
8. Tsitsipas
9. Shelton
10. Hurkacz
When watching I noticed how close my predictions are to Gill's but then again I watch a lot of his content, so it's not surprising.
I'm really looking forward to the 2024 season and to see what the fight between Djokovic and the young guns will be like🔥🔥
I went for identical except I put Ruud at 10. I'm not sure I trust Hurkacz to play at the current level for long enough and thought Ruud had some shocking results he could *potentially* easily reverse. Almost went Hurkacz though
@@arcorke Yes it is certainly possible Ruud will get into the top ten, it mostly depends on his mindset and motivation. But yeah the 9 and 10 spots feel like they're hard to guess because there are multiple players who could make it if they play well next season.
Great list... but Shelton? Ewe.
When looking back at this, it's really interesting hom much my perspective on some of these players have changed.
If you has asked me today what I would have guessed at the start of the year, I wouldn't have even thought that I put Rune on the list and that I put Zverev as low as he is.
Also Fritz being no.4 in the world while he wasn't in the list.
W Predictions Gill !!!!
Gil my Christmas gift to you is this: credit for your Medvedev pick. Alot of people were really starting to doubt him but you kept the faith in the octopus 👏🏼
You got sinner wrong
Sinner has declared (very wisely) that his main goal for 2024 is to confirm fourth place in the ranking, you are predicting third and his most enthusiastic fans are predicting (or rather hoping for) number one.
The only thing that I see as certain is the seriousness and dedication he puts into training, and the constant search for improvement.
Now Sinner has won the AO does he pass either Alcaraz or Djokovic?
My top10 for next year
1 Alcaraz
2 Sinner
3 Djokovic
4 Medvedev
5 Rune
6 Nadal
7 Zverev
8 Shelton
9 Lehecka
10 Tsitsitpas
My Top 10 prediction:
1.Djokovic
2.Alcaraz
3.Sinner
4.Medvedev
5. Tsitsipas
6.Zverev
7.Rune
8.Rublev
9.Nadal
10.Korda
Very impressive picks for last year 👏 well done!
Looking forward to the new season!
I was actually going to ask you to make a video like this, since I thought given Nadal's situation, u basically made 6/10 correct and the rest weren't that far off either :) good job
Ill go 1 to 10
Djokovic
Alcaraz
Sinner
Medvedev
Zverev
Rublev
Rune
Hurkacz
Tsitsipas
Nadal
I think Arnaldi is primed to make a big leap next year. His serve is a huge liability but the tools from the baseline are amazing. He also seems to have a very strong mental game.
absolutely - nice call sir
Love Arnaldi, Italian tennis is in great hands.
Isn't he similar to DeMinaur?
@@zy9662no 😂
@@willyumlevenberg why not, they are basically twins
Id love to see Dimitrov continue on the upswing especially as he's considered on the older side. I really enjoyed watching him play this year
I try my prediction:
1) Alcaraz
2) Sinner
3) Djokovic
4) Rune
5) Medvedev
6) Zverev
7) Rublev
8) Hurkacz
9) De Minaur
10) Dimitrov
Thanks Gill for another year's presentation of top 10 players. The result was very accurate last year with 4 of 10 match exactly the real rankings. Amazing. This year I truly believe Gill's prediction will be similarly accurate. I also think the below rankings prediction might work as well based on my observation and obvious with the insight from Gill's videos.
1. Sinner
2. Alcaraz
3. Djokovic
4. Zverev
5. Medvedev
6. Rune
7. Rublev
8. Tsitsipas
9. Hurkacz
10 Shelton.
Reason is, for top 3, I actually agree with Gill's, but I think any rotation of the three players will be possible as they are all on their prime, with Sinner is on the highest gear to win a lot of tournaments and Djokovic will win more GS and Alcaraz in between. Zverev is on the rise so I think he will take over Medvedev as he will play more tournaments and will have better overall results than Meddy. Rune still needs time to adjust his mindset and technics even under Becker's coaching. Shelton is a promising star and he will take the place of Fritz. For Rafa, I don't know where to put him as he is too unpredictable. He could win the French open and push into top five or he could quit in middle of season due to injury. So he is left out here.
except for djokovic and rune you're very close with everyone 5 months in, and the sinner at 1 pick is looking great so far
@@alexmacdiarmid4704 Thanks. 2024 has been very hard to predict. I am lucky to get two right (Sinner and Medvedev).
I wouldn't be shocked if this is the year that Djokovic doesn't finish number 1. He's been playing less outside the majors. Eventually, he has to have a major tournament or two where that costs him and he's not as dialed in. That said I can't say who will eclipse him and I can imagine him winning 2 or 3 of his 5 biggest tournaments of the year (the Grand Slams and the Olympics) and 2 Masters 1,000's. If no one monopolizes the rest of the points, that might be enough to keep the top spot.
1. Djokovic
2. Alcaraz
3. Sinner
4. Medvedev
5. Rune
6. Zverev
7. Rublev
8. Tsitsipas
9. Fritz
10. Khachanov
11. Hurkacz
12. Shelton
13. Dimitrov
14. Paul
15. Auger Aliassime
16. Fils
17. Ruud
18. De minaur
19. Tiafoe
20. Lehecka
21.Musetti
22. Cerundolo
23. Korda
24. Safiullin
25. Jarry
26. Nadal
27. Humbert
28. Mannarino
29. Norrie
30. Coric
31. Davidovich fokina
32. Karatsev
33. Arnaldi
34. Bublik
35. Griekspoor
36. Baez
37. Mc Donald
38. Berrettini
39. Shevchenko
40. Sonego
41. Etcheverry
42. Draper
43. Popyrin
44. Medjedovic
45. Kecmanovic
46. Djere
47. Van de Zandschulp
48. Zhang
49. Altmaier
50. Struff
51. Kyrgios
52. Marozsan
53. Evans
54. Eubanks
55. Ofner
56. Mensik
57. Purcell
58. Nishioka
59. Murray
60. Ruusuvori
61. Shapovalov
62. Van Assche
63. Stricker
64. Machac
65. Munar
66. Garin
67. Giron
68. Hijikata
69. Zapata Miralles
70. Gojo
71. Seyboth Wild
72. Thompson
73. Cachin
74. Michelsen
75. Thiem
76. JJ Wolf
77. O'connell
78. Prizmic
79. Vukic
80. Fucsovics
81. Carballes baena
82. Kokinnakis
83. Borges
84. Kotov
85. Hanfmann
86. Bonzi
87. Lajovic
88. Wawrinka
89. Rinderknech
90. Carreno busta
91. Gaston
92. Tabilo
93. Nakashima
94. Molcan
95. Nardi
96. Wu
97. Cobolli
98. Koepfer
99. Watanuki
100. Pedro Martinez
Nadal #26? Not a chance, unless injured again. No way healthy Nadal is #26..He might as well quit now, but he won't end the year #26 unless he does not play the clay season..no points to defend...He could win almost 5000 points alone before Wimbledon...
Damn Gill, great analysis on Alcaraz v. Zverev. Yea, not correct but so friggen close. You earned my sub brother.
Classy analysis in the end about stagnation. One player who is a questiom for me is ben Shelton. Could his potential be big ?
Did anyone see the post-match interview for Rublev where he said he’s the “real father” of Medvedev’s daughter 💀💀 Medvedev was sitting on the bench in the background looking confused and awkward, his wife was laughing hysterically in the audience
Nope...but those guys are always ribbing each other. Seems a bit of a weird one though 🤔
@@Jalleur14325I honestly feel like Rublev was saying he spends so much time with Medvedev’s baby and loves her so much that he feels like he’s the father, but it just came out completely wrong
Good call on another No.1 season for Novak Djokovic!
Healthy Draper was my no.1 tennis wish last year, same again this year. 🤞
My predictions:
1. Carlos Alcaraz
2. Novak Djokovic
3. Jannik Sinner
4. Holger Rune
5. Daniil Medvedev
6. Alexander Zverev
7. Andrey Rublev
8. Taylor Fritz
9. Hubert Hurkacz
10. Jiri Lehecka
Some notes:
- Lehecka could be a big hit-or-miss, to be honest I only put him in because his ranking trajectory seemed very high and I couldn't figure out who else to put there.
- I have Tsitsipas falling out of the top 10, I just think his off-court distractions are going to be too much for him to handle in 2024.
- Nadal is a big wild card, but imo a top 10 finish to what he said would be his last year on tour, seems a bit too much of an ask for me.
- I favour Carlos a bit more than Novak because I just think he has a bit more room for improvement and he will be super motivated to get back the No. 1 spot from Novak.
Some extra thoughts after one day:
- I don't think Novak will be quite as motivated going into 2024 as compared to 2023, because there were a lot of things that worked against Novak in 2022 that aren't a factor now. For starters, Novak got deported from Australia and banned from entering the US because of his vaccination status. This only ended up driving him to come back with a vengeance and win both of those Slams. Also, he went into 2023 with 21 Slams compared to Rafa's 22, so there was extra motivation to try and surpass Rafa's Slam tally. But now that Rafa is nowhere near his best Novak has basically locked up the Slam race, so the motivation to win more Slams can only come from within himself.
- Another think to note is that Djokovic is probably going to prioritise the Olympics even more than the Slams, which would mean diverting attention away from the Slams. In fact, I am predicting he is going to skip Wimbledon next year to focus on the Olympics, because that would give him more clay-court prep time and because even though his body continues to defy age I don't think it can handle 3 big tournaments in the span of just 3 months. Also, an 8th Wimbledon title is probably much less important to him than an Olympics gold. If that does indeed happen, it would create an opportunity for Carlos to gain an advantage over him in ranking points.
Reasons why I think Djokovic won't end #1 in 2024. I don't like that you didn't even really talk about these points apart from the first one, Gill.
1: logic would dictate that injuries are becoming more and more likely
2: The Olympics being his main focus, he will likely have to sacrifice focus, energy and stamina in the 3 summers slams in order to be at his best at the Olympics.
3: The triad of Sinner-Alcaraz-Rune are only getting better with each year, and they will make it harder on Novak than they did in 2023
4: Novak plays less tournaments than the other guys, giving him less opportunity to earn points
@Tuzzz94 agree Djokovic will play max 12 events same as this year could be less of course
Great content as always! The only name which I thought I'd see but did not was Davidovich Fokina, who didn't even make it to your Tier 3 (honorable-honorable mentions)... If he plays a healthy season, I think the guy is almost sure to make year-end Top 15 if not Top 10. All he needs is a few deep runs at the majors and Master 1000s.
Adf doesn't seem to get the results though. Love his game but he is not consistent enough.
Agree, all about consistency for Foki.
09:50 Casper Ruud’s “bad habits”. What are his bad habits?
one of then i think It Is that he doesnt have a killer instinct like the top guys
Rewatching in October: if everything hold through to December, then you did pretty damn good here
Alcaraz will finish no.1. He'll likely be even better than this year and Djokovic will either decline slightly or at least play less tournaments. Alcaraz was on track to finish no.1 even this year until his level dropped massively after Wimbledon, and Djokovic had one of his best years of his career.
I'd say you were right if we were guaranteed to see a constant series of Alcaraz vs. Nole finals. However, because the rest of the tour is involved, I think Novak is still better situated to consistently win against Meddy, Sinner, Rune and the others.
@fedfoofy I agree with you
@@HeavyTopspinAlcaraz doesn’t particularly struggle with the top players outside of Sinner, who he’s still 3-4 against. It’s more just about not having any slumps, and also he missed AO this year because of injury.
If Alcaraz continues with the same trend as in the last 3 months of 2023 then he will also lose second place in the ranking, now everything remains to be seen if and when he returns to his best levels of play and form
Men’s tennis is a very top-heavy sport, and I think people forget that you really don’t need to do much to finish in the top 10, relatively speaking of course. Nadal can finish #10 and still be ridiculed by Djokovic fans for being washed and having a horrible season by his standards. Why? Because all it takes is a few good tournaments. If he wins one Masters, a 250, and takes a bunch of early exits, that might just be enough. Fritz was #10 this year and we barely heard his name throughout the season. Or if Nadal can just consistently make QFs, that’ll be enough. So if Nadal can stay healthy, I still think he can make deep runs at a couple majors, do well at the clay Masters, and probably do enough to sneak in the top 10. Remember, Federer at age 41 coming off knee surgeries managed to make Wimbledon QFs and the 4th round at RG (where he withdrew). The big 3 even heavily compromised still can be among the last 8 players.
I'd love it if you could also list the top 20, without ordering/ranking them but still say who you think would be top players outside the top ten. Thanks for an interesting tennis commentary year and happy new year!
I have to feel you're way off on Rafa for one reason: even though his protected ranking will keep him out of needing to qualify, he's still going to have to face seeded players a LOT earlier than he's had to since he was a teenager. So instead of the relatively easy path to the quarters that a top-5 seed can expect, he could wind up facing top players in early rounds, and be far less likely to find himself in the semis or even finals of Masters and Grand Slams without having to face top opponents. Not to mention that Rafa's pride isn't going to let him take the path of Stan and Andy; I'd wager anything less than the finals at RG and he begins his "farewell tour". I'll be the first to admit I'm wrong if he returns playing like the Rafa we know, but personally I have a hard time seeing him cracking the top 20. And anyone throwing out "but Djokovic" arguments, remember that Novak's ranking didn't slip because he played poorly in 2022, it was because he wasn't allowed to play in half of the top events; he was 22-7 with 5 titles while Rafa hasn't played a competitive point of tennis in over 11 months.
Yes, while on the one hand I feel I am not anyone to predict what Rafa can or can't achieve, as he is capable of pushing himself to incredible limits. But at the same time watching the very top players, I have a hard time believing that he can knock them out to win the big titles he used to.
You simply can't compare Rafa and Novak at this point, as Novak never was out of play for 1 year due to injury as Rafa was. I agree, I too have a hard time seeing him cracking the top 20 again. Let's see what's happens, but if he loses early in AUS Open and the other tournament early season, I don't see him take the path of Murray and Stan either.
@@Jalleur14325It has nothing to do with the top players. They’re just as good as they were a decade ago, probably slightly worse, when Nadal made a huge injury comeback in 2013. It has everything to do with Nadal’s age. His mobility has gone down and he may not be the same player all around. But none of us can know for sure what Nadal will bring. Hell, his forehand is so good he might win RG just from that shot alone. He more or less did that last year and almost did in 2021.
Just a reminder that, if he keeps a limited schedule, Djokovic will need to defend every grand slam he won last year plus a few masters to keep the number 1.
IF he add participation in Indian Wells, Miami, Canada and Shangai it would be still semi limited schedule , with 0 points to defend at all four.
And still Madrid in reserve pocket with Monte Carlo only 90 points to defend.
My point is a lot of places where Novak could add points if needed.
9 seasons with over 11000 points should give us more faith in his ability.
Defending points doesn’t influence whether you finish the year at #1. Everyone starts with a clean slate, whether they won as much as Djokovic did last year, or if they won as much as Dominic Thiem did last year. Anything else would be unfair. I think a lot of people don’t understand how defending points works.
I still remember in 2021 when Djokovic tanked a match against Sonego at a 250, lost 1-6 2-6, and a bunch of Djokovic fans tried to convince me it was a “genius move” because Djokovic didn’t want to defend those points next year. Which is super dumb. Say Djokovic had 10,250 points next year because he won that 250, and then lost the 250 points because he didn’t bother to defend it. He’d have 10,000 points then. Now let’s say he didn’t win that 250, he’d have 10,000 points the next year, and would not lose the extra 250 points. The end result: still 10,000 points, just in the first scenario, Djokovic had the extra 250 points for a full year. Objectively speaking, it is always better to have more points than less points. Not a hard concept to grasp.
@SJ-5iju agree
Djokovic will be nb 1 in 24,not carlos@@colethomas903
i think i’m going
1. djokovic
2. alcaraz
3. sinner
4. rune
5. medvedev
6. rublev
7. zverev
8. tsitsipas
9. hurkacz
10. de minaur
Correct.
@@lawdogwales5921No Rafa? How easy it is to forget..
De minaur over Rafa..is this earth?
I made my predictions a couple of weeks ago and got the same people on 1-5 as you.
Went for
6. Rublev
7. Shelton
8. Zverev
9. Hubi
10. Dimitrov
Can't wait for the 2024 season!
Gill, all of your choices are sound, except for Rafa. You don't know that Rafa has suffered a "movement decline."
Just saw Rafa play, movement looks good..top 5? 15th Roland Garros? Fighting for other majors? Yes,yes, and yes! And I see Kachanov ahead of Tsisipas at the end of the year..
@@thomaswonderwood9826, I'm with you. Rafa looks like he's ready to go here. Gil made his prediction. Here's mine: Rafa Nadal wins two majors in 2024 and is Year End Number One.
Top 5 of mine
1. Alcaraz (good on all surfaces young can play 20 events).
2. Djokovic
3. Medvedev
4. Sinner
5. Rune
@user-iy8tp7vw3x alcaraz max will play 19 events in 2024 imho if I’m wrong I’m wrong he play
4 slams
8 masters 1000
4 500
1 250
Olympics
Atp finals
@@colethomas903 The point is, even if Djokovic has great year, he won't play more than 12 events this year thus will not be able to collect no1 amount of points.
@user-iy8tp7vew3x I ain’t disagreeing with u there I don’t see it either
Rublev is not higher on ranking not due to his serve or return. His mindset, his self-confidence, his stillness are not good enough. He doesn’t have what it takes to win top 5 players in Grand Slams. He gets mad too easily.
My top ten:
1. Novak
2.Alcaraz
3.Sinner
4.Medvedev
5. Nadal (wins Rolland Garros)
6. Hurkasz
7. Zverev
8. Rune
9.Tsitsipas
10. Kachanov..
1. Alcaraz
2. Sinner
3. Djokovic
4. Medvedev
5. Rune
6. Zverev
7. Tsitsipas
8. Rublev
9. Ruud
10. Fils
11. Draper
12. Shelton
13. FAA
14. Hurkacz
15. Nadal
These are my top 15 predictions for 2024. I definitely don’t see Djokovic finishing number 1 at 37 and Nadal will barely crack the top 15 if that. Murray, Wawrinka, and Nadal all retire this year I believe
But u saw djokovic almost winning calendar slam in 36 tho clown?
Looking forward to a breakout season for Sinner!
Same here. I felt like Sinner was cracked through a huge mental barrier and was playing with more freedom.
Breakout? The man is already #4 lol. Even if he finished #1 it wouldn’t really be a breakout
Zverev and Ruud both reached world no. 2 (I believe). However, they know they won't really have a name in the tennis history unless they get one major. Same for Sinner, who needs to start collecting slams. Sinner's talent level is way too high to *not* get at least 5 slams LOL.
My prediction wrt Rafa...early loss in Brisbane and another break till MC.. . winning either RG or Olympics Gold and calling it quits...
1. Alcaraz 2. Sinner 3. Nole - Nole have to defend 3 GS + 1 GS final and ATP Finals plus Paris at the end of the year. And he have to deal with Olympic games. He can win points in Miami and Indian Wells, but i think he will focus on clay.
I enjoyed this. I agree . Who do you believe in for AO ?
Hey gill, i have my predictions really similar to yours, except i have korda at the 10th spot, what do you think about the chances of him to enter the top 10?
Murray has the things that Rafa has, or at least close to it; the question is why he doesn't use them. He's just too stuck in the mindset that he can dominate the mathes by running. But hell, he's up there for one of the fastest forehands ever and could easily add pace without compromising consistency so much that it would be a net loss.
@pipeline732 LOL u couldn’t be more wrong
One thing we all know for sure,that Djokovic will be year end nb 1 haha
Perhaps. But how long can he possibly keep this up? Especially with all the young guns coming?
@@expoundamus next year Max, after that he might still win slams but won't be the no.1
@@expoundamusTbh I’m not sure he finishes #1. He has to play near perfect like he did this year, and if Alcaraz plays any better than he did in 2023 he can take it anyways. Alcaraz, Medvedev, Sinner will all play more than Djokovic will.
@@SJ-di5zu Agreed. But I also think he will be energized by Nadal’s return.
Are u ignoring Djokovic finishhed the year with almost 2500 pts lead end of the day,its not even close,
Indoor is alcaraz weakness,i just dont think alcaraz is a great post us open player,,u may say alcaraz missed ao but djok also missed sunshine double,,@@SJ-di5zu
I would argue zverev will crack the top 4
Dimitrov has matured Gill, before he didn't train like he does now, his age has now brought him a better work ethic.
1. Alcaraz
2. Djokovic
3. Sinner
4. Rune
5. Medvedev
6. Zverev
7. Rublev
8. Hurkacz
9. Tsitsipas
10. Fritz
Hi Gill idk know if this is asking for too much but I was wondering if u could do this for the WTA side as well. I feel that this current top 10, especially top 5 is really competitive with one another and I wonder how you would predict it to shape out. Great content as always and merry Christmas
Seems like sound predictions.
Here's mine:
1. Novak Djokovic
2. Carlos Alcaraz
3. Yannick Sinner
4. Sasha Zverev
5. Daniil Medvedev
6. Rafa Nadal
7. Holger Rune
8. Andrey Rublev
9. Stefanos Tsitsipas
10. Ben Shelton
I think Zverev has it in him to make that jump. Look at his rapid comeback from his injury. I predict less for Rune because I think he's still incredibly immature. He has the talent but not the maturity. My big prediction is obviously Shelton. I really foresee big things for Shelton, I really think we are going to see him winning multiple grand slams. If he's not top ten this year, I would put money on it for next year.
I think Nadal will finish well inside the top 10, maybe even closer to 5 than 10. He has too much talent and I don't think his movement has declined enough to prevent him from winning titles.
You're delusional. He lost 7 of his last 9 matches while healthy. He's washed. Won't finish the year as an active player, let alone top 10
@condommodel let them be what they are LOL I agree with u I don’t see Rafa in top 10 YE
Top 30 with lots of wild card, 3rd round Roland Garros..lots of good guys this year.
last week he played a practice match with gasquet(#76) in kuwait, gasquet won 2/3 sets, then he sd nadal wd have a hard time coming back to tour level play. and dont forget the real reason nadal took a whole year off, its bc his hrt/lngs were dmgd by the medspear, and that is not totally fixable. the foot, abtear/hip issues were minor and used as cover stories for the real reason, bc hes not allowed to say it openly. its the elephant in the room very few will admit. so if he cant beat #76 rank, i dont think hes going to fare well vs the top 10. he wont have endurance for running/bolting past the first or second set, especially vs the top 10.
@@jeremyneiderhoffDelusional? I just watched him take apart Theim in his first match back..He is coming for that French Title and he will be in the last four in 1 or 2 more..and anything can happen. He is not coming back to be mediocre..You are delusional to doubt the heart of a champion..
Wow! Gil Knows Tsitsipas even better than Badosa.
Djokovic above Alcaraz? I think you're being overly conservative here. This year Carlos was just an episode of cramps away from the number one. If he's not number 1 in 2024 I would be extremely surprised and disappointed.
Hey Gill,
Great prediction for this year, 4 spot on and 2 +/- 1, it’s really good.
I also have a very similar feel about the upcoming season: the current top-8s are really strong and I can’t see any of them dropping off drastically (maybe Tsitsipas due to another injury showed up in Turin, doesn’t look good), yet Hubi is pretty much there to grab that spot. I didn’t predict that Rafa will be in #10 but it is definitely a real possibility.
I do have more doubt on Dimitrov and I would put Felix in his spot of the 11-16 mix base on the history of these two, that is the only thing that I doubt for this video.
Really looking forward to the next seasons, definitely the most intriguing one for me to watch since Federer left the scene!
zverev top 3 predict
I absolutely love Gill’s analysis but I equally love that we’re 7 days into 2024 & Alex de Minaur has just proved the skeptics wrong & entered the Top 10 😂
Ruud and Shapo are both going to have one of their best ever years. I don't like your prediction for Ruud, one bad season isn't just going to carry over. I think also people have forgot Shapo, injury was the only thing keeping him out of top 20, and he's likely going to shock people by going top ten this year.
Gil you had a very similar top 10 to mine. The main difference is I had Ben Shelton as a surprise getting in and I didn’t have Nadal in mine. The other 9 you matched what I had but in a slightly different order. But we both had Djokovic #1!
I like Tsitsipas but I'm afraid to say he'll be out of top ten this season because of the backhand woes and as mentioned that everyone is aiming for that weakness. Some commentator had said after the Aus Open that Tsitsipas has stagnated and that is true
so basically everything stays as it is. bold prediction :)
picking djokovic at no.1 is lowkey brave. i still think he will be the best player, but he will play reduced calendar, and will sacrifice some atp points for olympics pursuit
I can definitely see either Alcaraz(with a full season)or Sinner(if he stays injury free) becoming number 1 next year.
If nadal is back is because hes going to do whatever to win as many grand slams as possible.
Having seen Nadal at the ATP finals last year and talking about how the ball was so fast, I am wondering how he will cope with AO.
@@Jalleur14325Turin is way, way faster than AO, and Nadal was way out of form plus playing against top 8 players. That’s not a good comparison.
Merry Christmas Gill!
Draper is a very interesting one, I'm intrigued to see what he can achieve this year.
Re. Murray. I don't think Rafa will want that path for himself.
Hey Gill, Im happy you're broadcasting on Xmas Day.😊
I cant believe you are so defensive about your predictions and get so bothered by the Comments🤣
Who can predict anything? All the goons giving u a hard time know who is going to be out for months on injury? Or that one or other player takes a Great Leap Forward or crashes out backwards? Some players will advance bcos of those injured/crashed out - like Ruud reaching the RG Final and #5. No-one would have predicted that - and of course he's fallen back to his actual level.
Predictions are best guesses. It's not a yes/no guess with a 50% chance of being right.
So just forget about the goons who have nothing better to do than jeer a guy on YT and stop justifying/defending your best guesses. Keep sharing your thoughts -that's why we're all here. ❤
Yes Gill i agree with u that Novak is the GOAT and will break more of his own records next year including another 9th year end No. 1.. Poor Fedal only have 5. However i don't think he will win OG as he wants it to much. I means a lot to him as he is so patriotic, but the reality is the the OG gold means nothing in tennis and is a small title at best.. Merry Christmas.
It means a lot.
It’s nice to win the gold medal but it doesn’t influence the goat debate
@@JackBurton3963 Everything influences GOAT debate, but the most important criteria are the slams.
@@ghbnhghjk - gold ? nah. Pit never won a gold same as Roger. Murray have two and is nowhere near GOAT debate.
@@JackBurton3963 it's a nice cherry on top let's put it that way
I didn't think what you said about Nadal's serve was accurate. Many forget that Rafa bombed 135 MPH serves regularly at the 2010 US Open after changing his serve motion. In fact, he won that title easily and beat Djoker in the final in very convincing fashion. Rumor was that Nadal stopped serving this way for two reasons. First off, it was said Tony didn't like the serve guru they brought in for that tournament. Secondly, Rafa said the ball got back on him too fast because his FH is such a long stroke and it rushed him on that side and maybe hurt his first FH somewhat which is his most important shot. Other than that, I agree.
Just to throw in another possible Honourable - Ugo Humbert? He's steadily and systematically pulled his game and his mind back together to come back from outside the Top 100 to crack the Top 20 for the first time at the end of last season. He seems to have really gelled with Jeremy Chardy.
He's traditionally had had nightmare first round GS draws (hello, Nick Kyrgios!) - he gets a good slam run (or two) this year and I think he's a dark horse to finish Top 10.
Olympics race is interesting: Hurkacz#7, deMinaur#8, Dimitrov#9, Shelton#10, Tsitsipas#13, Rune#15
Tsitsipas will not finish as low as 8 haha. He had an awful year all things considered, it couldn't have gone more wrong and he still finished 6. He carried that shoulder injury all season and played through it.
It all comes down to if he can start this season strong. If he doesn’t at least make semis in Australia again, I have a feeling he will finish around #8. But if he does make the semis/final again, then he’d have to have a disastrous season to not finish higher than 8th.
Also let’s see if he can have another strong clay season. 2022 was a little underwhelming, 2023 was worse. A strong clay season would change everything for Stef, especially because he’s historically quite terrible in the 2nd half of the season except the ATP Finals.
But also factor in that the field is getting stronger. Rublev just came off his career best season and finished above Tsitsipas, Zverev will have a better season in 2024 without the slow start coming off injuries, Rune and Sinner are expected to improve as well. Tsitsipas simply will have a harder time clinging to that #6 spot than he did last year.
He probably won’t get to the AO final next year and that is a lot of his points.
He was was in an exhibition in Abu Dhabi and he only played a couple of doubles matches with Badosa due to some health issue. His health will be very important especially since he has over 30% of his points to defend in Australia already ..
My prediction
1) alcaraz
2) djokovic
3) sinner
4) medvedev
5) rune
6)zverev
7)tsisipas
8)ruud
9) shelton( with an exploit,like win a master 1000)
10)rublev
The picks may be boring Gill, but very logical too. You provided good reasoning for all your picks! Ofc you did have one wild card spicy pick in Nadal. There are too many unknowns after such a long injury lay off and surgery, so I guess that pick was ambitious and risky. So many exciting storylines headed into 2024! Nadal, Kyrgios, Djokovic, Sinner and Alcaraz are for me the most exciting!
Hey Gil, how do you think Korda is going to do this year?
I predict Alcaraz to finish no 1 simply because he almost did overtake Novak this year (in the indoor swing) after skipping Aus Open i.e. 2000 points, combined with the fact that he will obviously be a better player next year since he's so young. Djokovic is also playing fewer and fewer events each year and will go into 2024 defending the title for most of them.
Well. Considering Djokovic and Alcaraz game I don’t see him doing really well in Australia. And also he almost take Djokovic is because he did not play the finals the last year and could won a lo of points for it, which is almost the same that Australia. Also I believe Djkovic already plays very few tournaments and he will play almost the same the next year, and not even with that Alcaraz could catch him( Alcaraz played a lot, even not big tournaments) , and is Sinner that is his black sheep and is going to stop him for some things
Also sinner getting better in 24 will more affect to alcaraz than djokovic in 24 cz his playstyle and alcaraz will play more events than djokovic@@susanamontoyajaramillo4579
@@susanamontoyajaramillo4579
Why do you think Alcaraz won’t do well at the AO? He does well on fast outdoor hard courts like the USO (which has sped up a ton), Miami, and Cincinnati. He also won Wimbledon which is fast. Alcaraz is not a slow court specialist; he’s basically good on every surface and even made the semifinals at Turin which is the fastest surface on tour. Plus he plays well on every outdoor court. He literally went 47-4 from the start of the season until Wimbledon; the man was barely losing any matches. A lot of people felt he wasn’t gonna be good on grass yet he went 12-0 and beat Djokovic, Medvedev, Dimitrov, De Minaur, Rune, Berrettini, and Jarry. Let’s not doubt him again.
Also Sinner isn’t a “black sheep” for Alcaraz. The H2H is still 3-4, and Sinner winning 2 500s and Davis Cup doesn’t make him suddenly a god level player.
As for your argument about Djokovic playing few tournaments, it doesn’t really matter because Djokovic will still play few tournaments next year. He’s not getting younger and he won’t change his schedule.
Almost overtook Novak Djokovic this year? What are you talking about? The gap between them is about 2300 points, so even if Alcaraz reached the Australian Open final he'd still be far behind.
For Alcaraz to end 2024 as #1 it should take both a notable improvement from Alcaraz and some decline on form from Djokovic, at the very least - in case Sinner doesn't make such a big step in his game.
@SJ agree my friend
You sleeping on DeMinaur?
Tsitsipas is an interesting one, I don't see how he can have a worse year than last year post-Melbourne. He should have his coaching team more stable this year, and he looked good in Paris. That being said, do I have any faith he can finish significantly higher than 8? Not at all.
I seen lots of Rune bc i love his volleys and overall energy and game. For me, Rune should work on creating more effortless angles and more often be able to pull the trigger DTL with his two hander. I know he can do both. But he needs to develope it more into his game so he makes even more winners. His BH lob could be better sometimes too, great but not Carlitoz/Djokovic/Murray level by no means. Only things imo. He could improve on, then shot selection sometimes at net which is mostly very good but goes cross court too often when running up to dropshots or net rollers. If he improves all of this including becoming as good outdoor player and indoors he will win slams i think.
Guys like Federer/Rafa was masters at angles plus both had a money shot.. I´m not sure if Rune´s moneyshot now is his forehand, it´s world class like his BH but i miss he sometimes rolls his opponents over in Nalbandian fashion or rips/flicks a cross court forehand winners with same angles like Federer did plus he should be more dangerous DTL with his BH. He is, but even more i think. I think he can get there, to the level i just descirped, which would be equal to unplayable.
But i think this year it will be Sinner or Medvedev one, Carlos one, Djokovic two.
For women i say Gauff two, Iga one or two, Ons one.
Lol. I go with Wozniacki winning US Open! I think she can. Something tells me she will do great things in 2024. Her short comeback in 2023 was amazing. Taking a set from Coco in US Open in quarter final. Coco was unplayable there so if Woz can improve even more she´s top 5-10 level.
Jack Draper?! 😂
I got Novak and Carlos right. And had Tsitsipas, Rune, Fritz, Medvedev, Sinner in the top 10, just not in the correct spots. I was wrong about FAA, Ruud, and Rafa.
I have enjoyed very much your whole presentation. Exceptional. Very well done.
And btw.....your prediction of 2023 ended up being a very good one.
For this 2024 I want to point out that Sinner might do very well for the first time in GS. He will get lots of points. Maybe he will finish .......higher than 3.
I dont think there is any sign that Djokovic has any signs of decline or disinterest so I think he will remain no.1 and win almost everything until he disappears I think he won't keep going for more that 1 season after Nadal leaves though considering he has all the records. I see Novak being no.1 this year and next year if nothing major happens and then he retires. The rest of the list seems solid and kind of predictable. Like the top 10 looks so similar to the top 10 the last 5 years just shuffled around
Correct, except that Novak will dominate the rest of the decade barring another pandemic.
1.Djokovic
2.Hurkacz 💪🇵🇱
3.Sinner
4.Alcaraz
5.Medvedev
6.Rune
7.FAA
8.Rublev
9.Zverev
10.Shelton
Ik it won’t happen but this would be the dream as a hurkacz fan 😂. Hopefully he can make it very deep into Wimbledon if he can avoid Djokovic early like he did this year.
Rafa ahead of Hurkacz...trust me..
No Nadal?
2024 atp top 10
1. Djokovic
2. Sinner
3. Alcaraz
4. Medvedev
5. Draper
6. Hurkacz
7. Shelton
8. Rune
9. Griekspoor
10. Rublev
Draper? No Nadal?
I don’t have a top 10 but I think Alcaraz will finish #1 and Sinner #2 or #2 for Al and #3 for Sinner. It’s more a sensation than anything.