Weekly Report CFT - Monday 8, January 2024 - Bitcoin | Stocks | $ Dollar New Update

Weekly Report CFT Monday, January 8th, 2024
BTC and ETH wrapped up 2023 in style as slowing PCE inflation data and dovish Fed’s comments kept prices to their 19-month highs and allowed the two cryptocurrencies to end 2023 up +155% and +90.6%, near $42,260 and $2,280 respectively. However, while BTC completed the inaugural week of 2024 extending the rally and hitting a high of $45,979 on perpetual futures as expectations around a spot BTC ETF approval as early as January 2024 gained further traction, ETH retraced amid a broader market downturn. BTC and ETH were trading near $44,160 and $2,270 on Friday, respectively gaining +4.9% and losing -1.4% over the week.
After ending 2023 on a high, US Equities ended the first week of 2024 with losses and snapped a rally of nine consecutive weeks of gains as investors entered the new year with a predisposition toward consolidation and digested the softening ISM data along with the stronger-than-expected job market data while the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.7%. December NFP readings came in much higher than expected at 216,000 - VS 170,000, possibly undermining the narrative of a rates pivot and tempering expectations of a rate cut potentially throughout the first quarter of 2024. S&P and Nasdaq concluded 2023 up +17% and +29.6% but closed out lower on Friday near 4,697 and 14,524, respectively shedding -1.5% and -3.2% for their first week in 2024 while the VIX index picked up moderately near 13.5%, still below its 200-Day MA currently at 15.6%.
US Treasury yields rose following the low jobless claims and the strong NFP report with the 10Y yield reconnecting with the 4% and hitting its highest level since Dec 13 - 4.10%. The 10Y and 2Y yields closed up near 4.05% and 4.38% on Friday from 3.87% and 4.25% the week before. The odds of the Fed keeping interest rates steady at a range of 5.25% to 5.50% in March 2024 are 36% from 53% a month ago, and the probability of a 25bps rate cut now is 61% according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
DXY halted losses and rebounded from its 6-month low to reach a 103.1 high and wrap up the week higher, near 102.44 from 101.38 the previous week following the strong job data, despite a disappointing ISM manufacturing declining to 50.6 in December - 52.6 expected.
Oil prices moved higher on growing concerns over the security of oil shipments amid escalating tensions between Israel and Lebanon and disruptions in shipments following Red Sea ship attacks. The WTI ended the week near $73.9, from $71.3 the week before. WTI price is back near $70 today following Saudi Aramco’s cuts to balance out worries about the supply caused by the increasing geopolitical tension in the Middle East.
BTC and ETH spiked today as rumors of ETF approval picked up steam following crypto-oriented comments from Gary Gensler, with BTC hitting a high of $47,324 and currently exchanging near $46,900 as markets inch closer to the results of the first BTC spot ETF applications and shift their focus to this week’s fresh inflation numbers coming in on Thursday with the release of the CPI data - headline and core expected at +3.3% and +3.8% - followed by Friday’s PPI, gauging wholesale inflation. Investors will also keep an eye on the kick-off of the earnings season with major financials from JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, BlackRock, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo set to report among others.
Client Profits
In response to the inherent volatility tied to the ETF application outcome, we took profits and closed some of our short positions to enable a shift in our trading strategy to day trading. This adjustment is aimed at navigating the market dynamics until the impact of the ETF approval news settles in January.
BTC
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ETH
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DXY
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US Treasuries
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Bitcoin | Stocks | $ Dollar New Update
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