10 year Treasury Bond yields keep rising resulting in higher mortgage rates. Home prices can go down, but the payments may not change much because of higher mortgage rates. Cash is king. The home market will still be very tough for most buyers unless long bond yields drop substantially. It doesn’t look like that can happen for at least 1-2 years. The market has to fix itself. A president or the government can’t do that
Simple math 10% rates , how can anyone afford $20k morgage in California. We haven’t even seen 2026 unemployment of 7%. This is how real estate has worked for hundreds of years. Affordability.
The problem with many townhouses is the insurance. Townhouse complex's have seen the cost of insuring a complex rise significant due to fire, hail etc. Monthly HOA fees going from $250.00 a month to $500-$600 a month. HOA's rarely manage the funds well and as capitol improvements creep in with time, funds have not been set aside for repaving driveways or painting building. The HOA will then resort to levying additional fees to each owner to cover the cost of the repairs. A house gives you much more control over cost. compared to a townhouse.
Wait till we hit 10% rates. Only winners will be getting out first, most will see prices decline for next 5 years. 50% decline due to higher rates. Most will cash out and downsize with cash purchase.
You should evaluate your previous year housing market prediction and grade your accuracy and then give your upcoming analysis. That would help us know if we should pay attention! 😊
They’ll (the NAR acolytes) will never say “price drop!” What he fails to mention is, prices are already falling in markets. When looking at the national average, removing the bottom half of numbers causes an increase.
Don't come to Charleston SC! Its a bloody mess! Houses from 50-60 miles out start from $250-$350. Double wides go for $125-$150. Taxs for a 1400 sq are $2400.00 We are thinking about moving to a small town with population of 700. Having 4 generations in this area we can't go to Charleston because of tourists & students. We are being forced out of our hertiage due rising prices😪
No one has a crystal ball. I live in Los Angeles. The single family home prices are about to jump. Thousands of homes in the wealthier part of Los Angeles are burned out. Unfortunate. However, here is what the market was a couple of weeks ago and here is what will happen. Few vacant lots in the wealthier section of town. Now there will be plenty. People won't want to wait upwards of 3-5 years to rebuild. Vacant lot prices will drop. Material prices will go up. Labor will go up. I live about three miles from the burned out areas. CA has a unique property tax. You pay a tax based upon the current value of a home, with two exceptions. Exception 1. Your property tax increase is limited to a small percentage increase each year. The guy across the street pays about $3000 a year. The guy on the corner in the newly built house pays about $60,000 a year. Exception 2. If you move to another location, you take the same property rate with you. So what has happened is that people come from the $15,000,000 house with a low property tax because they lived in the big house for 40 years or 30 years. They come to the neighborhood of $5,000,000 homes and don't pay $75,000 a year. The pay the tax rate of the old house which might be $2000 a year. So, there will be thousands of homes that will be bid up in price as the wealthy move to a relatively cheaper replacement home.
So reversion to the mean only applies to the factor that has remained on trend (wages) rather than the factor that went way off trend (prices)? You will have egg on your face.
Climate change and rising sea levels will make properties in low lying areas and coastal areas impossible to insure. Banks will be reluctant to give a mortgage for 15 or 30 years because the property may be under water. Selling properties to average buyers will become impossible in the future as banks and mortgage companies stop making loans for these properties. Coastal areas are a high risk for insurance and extreme weather like hurricanes. People will have to self insure and take the risk of loss. Condo associations are losing their insurance and if they find a new higher cost policy they will be passing on the higher costs to association members. Flooded cars from hurricanes fill the salvage lots. Insurance companies will raise rates and pass on the costs and risks to policy holders next year. Coastal properties will be confined to wealthy individuals that can buy properties with cash and self insure for losses from hurricanes or rising sea levels.
Trees don’t grow to the sky. Supply of homes because people own multiple will have to compete with builders. Builders also will have to compete which reverses market. Today’s real estate market currently is like top of roller coaster 🎢. Guess what happens next. I called real estate top in 2006. 2025 is 2007. 2026 will be 2008. 2030 will be 2012. 5-6 years of decline. Most people will miss because of greed. Listening to realtor in declining market is what you need to stay away from. Be the cheapest if you are going to list especially 600k and above.
What about apartment rents?? They are astronomical! What higher income? I'm retired!
Competing with illegal immigrants.
Rent prices are ridiculous and ALWAYS go up!
They will continue to rise as property insurance and taxes rise.
It’s the perfect storm.
Sellers are in great pace to capture equity if they can ignore all. Especially Cali, Boston, NY ,
10 year Treasury Bond yields keep rising resulting in higher mortgage rates. Home prices can go down, but the payments may not change much because of higher mortgage rates. Cash is king. The home market will still be very tough for most buyers unless long bond yields drop substantially. It doesn’t look like that can happen for at least 1-2 years. The market has to fix itself. A president or the government can’t do that
Simple math 10% rates , how can anyone afford $20k morgage in California. We haven’t even seen 2026 unemployment of 7%. This is how real estate has worked for hundreds of years. Affordability.
I’d happily sell and downsize if there were decently priced townhomes without throwing away all my equity in my house
Townhome prices are overpriced also
@ agreed 100%
@@scottwhite2583yep! There's a townhome community about to be built near me and they are in the 600s.
The problem with many townhouses is the insurance. Townhouse complex's have seen the cost of insuring a complex rise significant due to fire, hail etc. Monthly HOA fees going from $250.00 a month to $500-$600 a month. HOA's rarely manage the funds well and as capitol improvements creep in with time, funds have not been set aside for repaving driveways or painting building. The HOA will then resort to levying additional fees to each owner to cover the cost of the repairs.
A house gives you much more control over cost. compared to a townhouse.
You are completely WRONG, there is no way our income is going to match or come up enough to equalize the still rising house prices!!
Agree
Wait till we hit 10% rates. Only winners will be getting out first, most will see prices decline for next 5 years. 50% decline due to higher rates. Most will cash out and downsize with cash purchase.
Love the blue long sleeve shirt on Clark!
He does look good in blue.... spiffy indeed!
You should evaluate your previous year housing market prediction and grade your accuracy and then give your upcoming analysis. That would help us know if we should pay attention! 😊
Tariffs on lumber imported from Canada can significantly affect the cost of housing materials in the U.S.
They’ll (the NAR acolytes) will never say “price drop!” What he fails to mention is, prices are already falling in markets. When looking at the national average, removing the bottom half of numbers causes an increase.
And steel.
If interest rates go down builders and sellers just raise prices and history repeats itself. That’s how the housing market got here.
I think you are way off base and overly optimistic in your predictions.
Agree, incomes would need to go up significantly. And then there's the issue of high rent prices
New home sales are financed by the builder with advanced bank deals that discount current rates.
“Remote workers” and “pandemic” lol. Still using the buzz words! Realtors miss the pandemic days
Don't come to Charleston SC! Its a bloody mess! Houses from 50-60 miles out
start from $250-$350. Double wides go for $125-$150. Taxs for a 1400 sq are $2400.00 We are thinking about moving to a small town with population of 700. Having 4 generations in this area we can't go to Charleston because of tourists & students. We are being forced out of our hertiage due rising prices😪
No one has a crystal ball.
I live in Los Angeles. The single family home prices are about to jump. Thousands of homes in the wealthier part of Los Angeles are burned out. Unfortunate. However, here is what the market was a couple of weeks ago and here is what will happen.
Few vacant lots in the wealthier section of town. Now there will be plenty. People won't want to wait upwards of 3-5 years to rebuild. Vacant lot prices will drop. Material prices will go up. Labor will go up.
I live about three miles from the burned out areas. CA has a unique property tax. You pay a tax based upon the current value of a home, with two exceptions. Exception 1. Your property tax increase is limited to a small percentage increase each year. The guy across the street pays about $3000 a year. The guy on the corner in the newly built house pays about $60,000 a year. Exception 2. If you move to another location, you take the same property rate with you. So what has happened is that people come from the $15,000,000 house with a low property tax because they lived in the big house for 40 years or 30 years. They come to the neighborhood of $5,000,000 homes and don't pay $75,000 a year. The pay the tax rate of the old house which might be $2000 a year. So, there will be thousands of homes that will be bid up in price as the wealthy move to a relatively cheaper replacement home.
So reversion to the mean only applies to the factor that has remained on trend (wages) rather than the factor that went way off trend (prices)? You will have egg on your face.
Climate change and rising sea levels will make properties in low lying areas and coastal areas impossible to insure. Banks will be reluctant to give a mortgage for 15 or 30 years because the property may be under water. Selling properties to average buyers will become impossible in the future as banks and mortgage companies stop making loans for these properties. Coastal areas are a high risk for insurance and extreme weather like hurricanes. People will have to self insure and take the risk of loss. Condo associations are losing their insurance and if they find a new higher cost policy they will be passing on the higher costs to association members. Flooded cars from hurricanes fill the salvage lots. Insurance companies will raise rates and pass on the costs and risks to policy holders next year. Coastal properties will be confined to wealthy individuals that can buy properties with cash and self insure for losses from hurricanes or rising sea levels.
Very scary picture you've painted for us to understand...... so sad
Trees don’t grow to the sky. Supply of homes because people own multiple will have to compete with builders. Builders also will have to compete which reverses market. Today’s real estate market currently is like top of roller coaster 🎢. Guess what happens next. I called real estate top in 2006. 2025 is 2007. 2026 will be 2008. 2030 will be 2012. 5-6 years of decline. Most people will miss because of greed. Listening to realtor in declining market is what you need to stay away from. Be the cheapest if you are going to list especially 600k and above.