Generally agree with your skepticism, however these guys at least a acknowledge their conflict of interest- about 80-90% of what you read listen and watch has been placed there by commercial interests
Yes, back in February when these guys were cheering the housing market I had the sense that history would repeat. It is normal for markets to rebound for a period of months, before resuming a decline. This was my expectation. Seems like they were too smug, and wrong. I suspect that there are good reasons to believe that the market decline is a long way from completing. As mentioned above, housing remains far too expensive. Assuming, as I do, that we are heading into a deep global recession, houses have a long way to fall. If housing is currently priced at 7 x median household income, and is typically viewed as fairly priced at 3 x, houses have a long way to fall. If we add that an economic environment in which house prices fall sharply it is likely that employment and incomes will also fall sharply, implying house prices still have as much as 60% (from here) to fall.
I read in an article in the herald that stated that developers had built a surplus of town houses / apartments .. I guess if there's a surplus of an item prices go down .. if there's a shortage of an item prices go up..
If prices are falling while we have the strongest population growth in decades, any clues on what the outlook is now that population growth is slowing? My personal view is that the housing market is probably going to trend largely sideways, certainly in inflation adjusted terms, for a while yet.
Hold on and wait for US cut the rate 🤞 except terrace house, whose supply is way over the demand, all likelihood property , conjoined units etc will be hit hardly whatever the interest rate
There is a big demographic you are missing. Excess deaths have been at records for 3 years which has dropped a lot of home owners out of the market. Not to mention all the sick people that can no longer afford them
Yes, these guys are vested in the rise of the NZ property market. They will always find good reasons to like property. The reality is that National are rolling back the investment land interest exclusion and Labour and National have been flooding the country with immigrants. If property prices are still heading down in this environment it's hard to imagine how severe the drop will be through a probable global recession in which rapidly rising unemployment politically forces the government to turn off the immigration tap.
Property is lost cause. Can we please invest in something useful. Its time to accept that housing is just so over priced its not worth investing in. Your better off just renting and putting you money into a index fund. Even better get out of NZ and add 20% to your income
Better to ask non property spruiking or non conflicted economists of their house price forecasts.
Generally agree with your skepticism, however these guys at least a acknowledge their conflict of interest- about 80-90% of what you read listen and watch has been placed there by commercial interests
House prices are 7 times the median salary yet it's a 'buyers market'?
Banks are still testing people around 8.8% so even though it's a "good time to buy" most can't. Also many vendors are still wanting top dollar.
The banksters are just making sure that everybody is impoverished before they reduce the pressure.
Yes, back in February when these guys were cheering the housing market I had the sense that history would repeat. It is normal for markets to rebound for a period of months, before resuming a decline. This was my expectation. Seems like they were too smug, and wrong.
I suspect that there are good reasons to believe that the market decline is a long way from completing. As mentioned above, housing remains far too expensive. Assuming, as I do, that we are heading into a deep global recession, houses have a long way to fall. If housing is currently priced at 7 x median household income, and is typically viewed as fairly priced at 3 x, houses have a long way to fall. If we add that an economic environment in which house prices fall sharply it is likely that employment and incomes will also fall sharply, implying house prices still have as much as 60% (from here) to fall.
20% still to come ... 101 economics...
I read in an article in the herald that stated that developers had built a surplus of town houses / apartments .. I guess if there's a surplus of an item prices go down .. if there's a shortage of an item prices go up..
If prices are falling while we have the strongest population growth in decades, any clues on what the outlook is now that population growth is slowing? My personal view is that the housing market is probably going to trend largely sideways, certainly in inflation adjusted terms, for a while yet.
Agree, now golden time for investors with cash on hand to look around for good deals
Yeah but with DTI it will mainly be high income earners.
how much are the new loan to earnings ratios they are bringing in going to affect things?
Dead cat bounce?
then the falling knife
Hold on and wait for US cut the rate 🤞 except terrace house, whose supply is way over the demand, all likelihood property , conjoined units etc will be hit hardly whatever the interest rate
And these guys have been selling their clients into investment units … representing them as great investments when they are anything but …
There is a big demographic you are missing. Excess deaths have been at records for 3 years which has dropped a lot of home owners out of the market. Not to mention all the sick people that can no longer afford them
Gold is the highest it’s been since 1980, that’s a bad sign isn’t it?
whys he talking like its the 90's TV?
Good spruiking, look forward to seeing next months graph 📉
Yes, these guys are vested in the rise of the NZ property market. They will always find good reasons to like property. The reality is that National are rolling back the investment land interest exclusion and Labour and National have been flooding the country with immigrants. If property prices are still heading down in this environment it's hard to imagine how severe the drop will be through a probable global recession in which rapidly rising unemployment politically forces the government to turn off the immigration tap.
Survive to 2025.
Property is lost cause. Can we please invest in something useful. Its time to accept that housing is just so over priced its not worth investing in. Your better off just renting and putting you money into a index fund. Even better get out of NZ and add 20% to your income
Ed lookin jacked