"We'll See the True Colours of the RBA" - Mark Bouris & Stephen Koukoulas Monthly Update
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 8 ต.ค. 2024
- Mark Bouris and economist Stephen Koukoulas return for their monthly discussion before the RBA Board and their new Governor meets on Tuesday, September 5th where they will announce whether or not to keep the official cash rate on hold again at 4.10%.
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I find it very difficult to believe inflation is easing. My little independent fruit and vege market (small business) has recently placed iron gates across the entrance to stop the increase in shoplifting. What does this tell us? Food prices continue to climb and people cant afford to eat or feed their kids.
That’s terrible
Good chat! Small business has been reeling for a decade. An extra $US$10/ton on the iron ore price masks a small business recession exceptionally well.
The "climate change stuff" i would assume would be related to ESG social standing, and also WEF, UN 2030/ 2050 plans.
Climate change funding won’t work with high interest rates as the return on capital is distributed evenly over project life cycle. So the central banks will need to manipulate credit prices. High capital investments in gas “not always but ‘can’” returns profit and capital within 3-6 months after drilling. When interest rates are high you need return on capital rapidly…
The cash rate is NOT the issue, the level of debt is. 4.1% is with the exception of the ridiculously low cash rate era from May 2012 to May 2022, quite normal, in fact on the low end of normal. It was recklessly keeping the cash rate below 4% for 11 years and the decoupling of lending from income that created this mess. If people could only borrow a maximum of 4 times their income and the cash rate had of been kept in a historically normal range of 4-6% we would not have large chunks of people in mortgage stress now. The lie is the problem is the cash rate being too high now rather than being too low for 11 years and the insane level of debt lent out to buy property with no regard for income or rates over the full term of the loan (not just till 2024, it ain't gonna stay at 0.1% for 20-30 years!). Here is a thought, how about loans getting capped on income, say 4 times income and a fixed rate offered for the full 20-30 year term of the loan.
spot on..the property lobby and media create a false narrative... the root of this madness lay in the previous 15 years not bc we now have low interest rates of 4.1%
And then the gap between the rich and poor would grow even faster because not many people could ever have bought a house
That’s boomer talk. So I guess my generation shouldn’t afford a house then.
@@washout04 The concept of people buying property without taking on mountains of debt they can't afford to pay back is "boomer talk". Right! Gotcha!
How much was the average house price vs the average wage when you bought a house ?
What is it now?
What was the cost of energy, fuel etc then vs now?
It is hard for every generation but some people want to turn it into a pissing contest about which generation has it harder
Come on guys half a million immigrants came into the country last year and unemployment is down seriously ? Wages are up , power prices are up, petrol is up, insurance is up, airfares are up , food is up, rents are up, house prices are up gee no inflation good luck
Rates have only just normalised to their 30 year long term average. Get use to it!
ITS 100% ON HOLD. PHIL ISN’T GOING OUT WITH A BANG.
House price has to be affordable first because of young people. Young people are struggling to buy their first home.
Financial repression is coming to save the indebted, the banks, the developers and the politicians.
A US investment banker clearly stated that lending practices will be complying with ESG nonsense.
guys, there is a relationship between Qantas domestic for commerce and how much margin in international routes. Qantas need to recapitalise, pretty Qatar are bank rolled bt Govt
Speaking to cost of living in NYT recently there was an article that said $100 is the new $20 bill. Suddenly it's true, so easy to spend $100.
The incessant whinging from entitled and privileged individuals who want to literally borrow money for nothing Don't take into account the tremendous boost to the income of pensioners and self funded retirees living their off savings account Criminally low interest rates has been a wealth transfer from savers to borrowers which also caused the price of real estate to explode Time for change Interest rates need to be returned to normal rates that encourage savings
The RBA's days are numbered. Why? Because we're going to swing from over tightening to over easing depending on the politics of the day.
Get ready to take out a loan at 2% again.
Inflation is a form of taxation- think about it. They want the appearance of lowering or maintaining Inflation etc, however they pull or not pull levers that are inflationary.
They gotta pay the national credit card somehow.
This new Governor concerns me 😮
Love the podcast- unfortunately you really muddied the waters around politician and public service pay rises, mixing amongst the two and also seemingly lumping federal and states together. Suggest you take a deeper dive before factoring it into your inflation consideration. Keep up the great work Mark and co.
oil is up 17 % since june , inflation will rise again
Oil is going up much higher.
Are yes… Philip Lowe, out- our own, mole in to prop up the Fiat Ponzi scheme… RBA independent my arse & negative gearing the real issue/elephant in the room chat begins at… haha it didn’t; keep the scheme going team. Boomers balling off equity - continue
The Boomer Blessing continues.
mark - you've gotta get on this flight debacle with qantas' monopoly. it's trying to be swept under the covers.
Inflation is not abating. Indeed it is still too high and sticky. Expect more rate rises. I don't care what the usual experts say. The stats are being massaged but they cannot hide the fact that prices continue to increase on items and services across the board month on month at rates way about the annualised rate 6%.
Climate change and inflation - things getting hotter means that certain grown things don't grow where they used to. Wine for example is very temperature dependent. Cattle breeds are different in the NT versus Tasmania. And all that will force farmers to change what they do . . . there will be costs in change. Even if you can grow it, the level of water infrastructure will need change (evaporation rates) . . .
The true measure of the cost of living crisis is the amount of people switching from Colgate to OralB.
Trading Economics Employment data charts.......
Looks like we are going to be left tredding water longer.
The US Governor Powell saud at Jackson Hole meeting speech end of 2025 they expect to shift stance on rates....that's the long haul ahead...
the climate is ALWAYS changing...
Young people are staggering for buying their first home😢😢😢😢😢😢😢😢😢
Allow people to take more loans!!!! thats it.
The Kouk….
How about we screw down loose lending practices rather than demanding
Poor people pay more money to rich bankers..
Its happened. My lending capacity has gone from $750k to $300k in two years. No debt buyers in he market, all cash.
Stephen was annoyingly rude. He kept talking over n through Mark all the time😐
Can you guys prep the interviewees a bit?
I predict a cash rate of 4.25% this afternoon, an increase of 0.15%.
It won’t move up unfortunately. Financial repression. They’ll try to keep interest rates below “actual” inflation for the next decade to deleverage heavily indebted borrowers.
Bitcoin. Those that know, know. April 2024 halvening, black Rock among others spot btc EFT soon. Price go boom.
Bitcoin is over.