Current Market Conditions & The Global AI Race w/ Richard Duncan (TIP615)
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 31 พ.ค. 2024
- Clay is joined by Richard Duncan to discuss current market conditions, whether we’ll see a recession in 2024, the potential for interest rate cuts, and more.
Richard Duncan is an accomplished author of "The Money Revolution" and has held prominent positions in the financial industry, including Global Head of Investment Strategy at ABN AMRO Asset Management and Equity Research Leader for James Capel Securities. He has also worked as a consultant for the IMF in Thailand. Since 2013, he has published Macro Watch, a video newsletter analyzing the economy and financial markets.
IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN:
00:00:00 - Intro
00:00:51 - How our economy is structured
00:09:19 - Why the economy requires credit expansion
00:16:52 - How the credit environment has developed since 2020
00:21:10 - What a recession is, and what the implications of a recession are
00:24:11 - Why Richard foresees a recession in 2024
00:27:06 - The primary drivers of credit growth
00:34:31 - Why we’ll likely see interest rate cuts in 2024
00:45:21 - The drawbacks of our modern-day economy
00:52:21 - Indicators that investors need to monitor
00:56:51 - Where the US is at in the AI race
00:58:54 - China
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📖 BOOK MENTIONED:
- The Money Revolution by Richard Duncan: amzn.to/4c7dUd3
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So this guy is the slickest proponent of the everything bubble. He was really funny when at 45:53 you askwhat are the primary drawbacks of what he's envisaging and he dishes out the the drawbacks of not continuing dancing current game of musical chairs...
Very astute. My two criticisms are: 1) Mr Duncan's belief that throwing money at high-tech will necessarily lead to game-changing innovation; 2) he overlooks the economic effects of the war on "climate change" that will greatly depress consumer demand if implemented: UN Agenda 2030 is pushing governments to sharply curtail individuals' consumption --- e.g., limiting people to three articles of new clothing per year, one plane trip every two-three years, two ounces of meat per day, ending reliance on fossil fuels and generally reducing energy consumption, meaning less mobility, less tourism, dining out, etc. A side note: any cure for cancer or "for all diseases" also would result in more people living much longer after retirement, increasing the burden on Social Security funding and, again, undermining the unstated goal of reducing the world's population by some significant fraction.
Commercial bank credit is not growing for a year and a half now. However each last 3 quarters total public added more dollars than ever except 2020Q2 and 2021Q4.
And if fusion don't work and government forced taxpayers to fund it ?? This guy is INCOHERENT 😊
Very interestingly put
Thank you for tuning in! 💡
👍
Very nice interview
Much appreciated! 🙏
❤
Thanks for tuning in! ❤
@@WeStudyBillionaires In India, we have limited means to understand how the US financial system works. This interview on the book throws beautiful parallels on how it used to work and how it is now. The insight of the China experiment and how this has to continue to avoid depression and wars is intriguing. Pls continue to bring out interviews on such great books!
Govt spending has never worked. Can you name one joint venture that did not turn into a scam?
Joint venture like CCP?
The Fed doesn't print money, the Treasury does, the Fed only does bank reserves. 🤦♂️
Govt spending creates have and have nots as ee see now.
Yes, we need the government to pick winners and losers to ensure innovation! After all capitalism has never worked in properly allocating capital. Central planners are far better!
Great explaination of the system and the problem, very stupid solutions proposed. Bitcoin is the answer not more govt money printing and spending.
He's a brilliant analyst of and teacher of modern monetary theory but basically has become convinced of its legitimacy as an economic system by being too deep in the weeds. Not seeing the mega crashes he presumed would happen has changed his mind about the risks vs benefits of creditism.
Unfortunately, Duncan ignores the constant micro crashes every other year that widen the wealth gaps and suffocate poor and middle class. I would be curious to see how Duncan concluded that the living standards of the poor have improved in the past decades. It sure does not feel that america working class is enjoying a better standard of living, just that they have more "stuff". Less time, less children and less community involvement are to me the biggest leading indicators of rapidly declining standards of living . Also Duncan dismisses wealth inequality as something you just fix with taxes but no you need to also control the tools that allow wealth extraction by the elites in society in the first place . Limited wealth tax for redistribution is helpful but it's not a cure to the disease of boom/bust cycles and predatory loaning that credit expansion empowers.
To me it's clear. Some credit is good but make it interest free and tied to decentralized currency , best of all worlds. No boom bust. Remove advantages that wealthy elites have with access to credit more accessible to lower classes. This will grow the economy more stable and in more responsible way. Bitcoin or crypto of some kind is the best bet and hope now for decentralized currency that can usher in a new, better economic system
Clearly a woke Democratic biased opinion. That OK, just be upfront about it!
Pretty good except this guy is a clueless liberal when it comes to politics.