How defence and diplomacy can avoid a US-China war in Asia. A conversation with Sam Roggeveen.
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 7 ก.ค. 2024
- How can smart defence strategies and multilateral diplomacy avoid a US-China war in Asia - for example over Taiwan? Have American and Australian advocates of war with China over Taiwan really thought about the realities of a war with China? How should middle powers - like Australia, Indonesia and the ASEAN nations - adapt their defence and foreign policies to the new realities of war, Asian strengths and US power today?
My conversation with Sam Roggeveen about his book The Echidna Strategy: Australia's Search for Power and Peace (amzn.to/49X82B3) asked these fundamental questions that concern everyone around the world. What would a war with China really be like, and how can defence - the echidna strategy - and some creative diplomacy avoid a US-China war in Asia.
Our conversation covered Australian defence and foreign policy, AUKUS and nuclear submarines, the upcoming Australia-ASEAN meeting in Melbourne (March 2024), China, Indonesia, regional order in Asia and the West Pacific, lessons of the Ukraine war, & the USA.
Is the USA becoming just a normal great power, and what does that mean for other countries all around the world?
Sam Roggeveen is the Director, International Security at the Lowy Institute - www.lowyinstitute.org/people/...
Links to Sam's book, The Echidna Strategy: Australia's Search for Power and Peace (2023) amzn.to/49X82B3
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If you liked this video you might enjoy my discussion with @theduran th-cam.com/users/liveVutieNNCkDc?si=pFbRkLxRiAs_cHyc or my video on 7 insights from historians that might prevent a US-China War th-cam.com/video/ZEizYZs8HlE/w-d-xo.htmlsi=KS6NZWx39vpBW4Cx
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The world needs cold and emotionless analysis of these topics. The political class talks about war as if it costs nothing. And the media magnifies that voice.
Very good point. I really appreciated Sam's moral seriousness about the consequences of war.
After slaughtering young kids in Afghanistan, the kangaroo thinks it can fight the dragon without knowing that even its big brother got defeated in the Korean and Vietnam wars!
Fortunately many sensible people like Sam are cautioning against that.
Many of the world's problems stem from one group considering themselves superior to another and denying the rights or existence of others, believing that they are entitled to more than others. These divisions can be based on race, religion, gender, class, politics, nationality, culture, generation, education, ability, and geography. One group even has a written agreement with God that grants them special privileges and land.
All of these divisions are caused by a scarcity mindset, characterized by fear of losing something, anxiety about not having enough, insecurity about lacking security, and greed for more. This mindset always strives for a win-lose outcome, where one's gain is someone else's loss. As Obama's Pivot to Asia suggests, "If over a billion Chinese citizens have the same living patterns as Australians and Americans do right now, then all of us are in for a very miserable time. The planet just can't sustain it." This scarcity mindset often leads to war, military action, colonization, slavery, and exploitation.
However, these divisions can be mitigated by adopting an abundance mindset, which is characterized by cooperation, resource-sharing, and win-win outcomes. Avoiding war by using tools such as trade, commerce, diplomacy, and connectivity is possible.
The scarcity mindset views the abundance mindset tool kit as coercive trade, debt trap, wolf warrior diplomacy, despotic infrastructure, assertiveness, and aggressively peaceful.
It is the difference between mindsets. Each thinks that it is acting rationally and is on the right path.
This is a profound point on the different mindsets. Thank you. We all need to learn to live together with people with different mindsets. Thanks for sharing.
Who the long-distance intruder is is quite clear.
Absolutely true. 80 years after WW2 - would the West Pacific be more or less secure without the military presence of a country from the Eastern Pacific? I think I know my answer, but I have never had to plan a defence strategy.
Why would Taiwan be "much more important" than Ukraine, because of its relative proximity to Australia? Just DON'T GO there - China's been in approximately same place since millennia and is not going anywhere. Her last international military conflicts - skirmishes rather - were with her neighbours, the Soviet Union in 1969 and Vietnam in 1979. HOW MANY wars (of aggression) have the United States and (some of) their Allies waged since then - in the last 45 years?
BOTH Ukraine and Taiwan are gates to The Heartland (remember the Paranoid Pole's bragging how he'd managed to lure the USSR into Afghanistan?) - and "he who controls the Heartland rules the world. Go home.
I think Sam explains why Taiwan is more important to the US than Ukraine later in the video. If you are interested in Mackinder, you might enjoy my video, 'How do Mackinder and Dugin ideas of Eurasian Heartland influence world politics and history today?' th-cam.com/video/N_1puvEA1lA/w-d-xo.html
although we need to time it right and be careful in how we do it, Australia along with New Zealand, need to break free of USA alliances and lead by example in the region.
We are an Island continent, not a small nation in the middle of Europe. We need to act like an independently strong nation with integrity.
I totally agree that our distance and isolation are Australia's strongest military assets. A military defense strategy focused on fatiguing the opponent, is far more effective than offensive strategies.
@@theburningarchive Thank you I'll make sure to watch. Taiwan might be "more important than Ukraine [to the United States] AT THE MOMENT - what with Ukraine practically in shambles. I live in Japan, the Rimland, and in my, unprofessional of course, opinion, the Hegemon (with the help of its Toady Lackeys, to borrow from the ever inventive Ray McGovern) have had been gnawing at the Eurasian Supercontinent from BOTH SIDES, with differing intensity. As well as from the inside - Afganistan of course, and the latest overtures to, of all places, Mongolia.
@@vulpine321 One correction: a never pre-existing country-state before 1991, Ukraine after the breakup of the Soviet Union found herself THE biggest country in Europe (after the European part of the Russian Federation).
Agreeably, what may be called a "core" Ukraine" (the name itself a fairly recent term, especially as the"Ukrainian national identity" only dates back to the second half of the 19th century, when it began to emerge) WAS a rather smallish affair - pre-1654. A Cossack Hetmanate of one Bohdan Khmelnytsky, it pledged allegiance to and merged with the Russian Tsardom. Large territories had been added to the original Hetmanate, by the Russian Tsars between 1654 and 1917, Vladimir Lenin in 1922, Joseph Stalin in 1945, and finally Nikita Khrushchev, who for some - probably administrative - reasons transferred the Crimean Peninsula to the Soviet Socialist Republic of Ukraine.
Interestingly, Kiev still practically belongs to Russia, who bought it (together with territories east of the Dnieper River) back from Poland in 1686, the purchase deed still valid today.
To sum it up: Ukraine is NOT some "small country in Europe" (in my personal opinion unfortunately for herself and the world's peace).
Great point.
What a refreshing and incisive analysis by Roggeveen, 👍🏽👏🏾it’s folks like him and Hugh White who love our country that’s challenging the group think of AUS sleepwalking into a war with a superpower!
Just remember US would fight China to the very last Aussie/Filipino/Japanese 🙄
Although your boss disagrees with your book, I think it's superb, and would recommend it to everyone.
Loved your take on Molan's book 'Danger on our Doorstep' 'that's a bloody big doorstep.'
Let's not even talk about consequences of going to war with China. Let's talk about the justification for why Taiwan should be independent. Taiwan issue is an unresolved civil war between the Chinese people. It is no one's business in the first place to decide whether they should intervene in the Taiwan issue. You can't go around inventing justifications to balkanize another country. Every country has their own dissenters and malcontents and even had to fight a civil war.
If the US can justify making Taiwan breakaway from China because of "freedom" and "democracy" then China can also justify supporting the independence of say, Hawai'i or Texas. How about every state south of the Dixon-Mason line? Given enough propaganda, I'm sure we can convince a lot of southerners that it is their right to breakaway from the union and recreate the Confederate States, granted that will be terrible since they were slave owning states. But the point stands.
Don't even talk about going to war with China because you will be violating the basics of international relationships, that is the sovereignty of another nation.
I agree. You might want to check out my on Henry Kissinger. It refers to what Zhoe Enlai said to Kissinger about Taiwan in 1971. Your point about Hawaii.
Pretty much on the ball.
You claim you have freedom to publish, but your freedom to publish is under attack from many directions . Consider Julian Assange, an Australian publisher facing extradition to US for publishing US war crimes.
I think that is a fair point and I allowed my guest to put h is view freely too.