Solid analysis on the key aspects of EV uptake next year and beyond. Couple of thoughts on each: 1) Sales - The German auto market was more mature when incentives departed, with a wide array of models already in place. The US has a significant number of automakers (like Dodge, Ford, Honda) and key models/segments (like the Bolt EV, EREV trucks, small truck/Maverick-style EV) that have yet to fully bake their line-up, or even to hit the market in some cases. Every new category, from affordable compacts to new entrant and electrified trucks, brings a new US buyer segment to EVs. While some may be sensitive to pricing, in most cases that gap will be bridged by manufacturer discounts and state incentives, as we've seen with the likes of Hyundai and Kia models. And as the Honda Prologue's success demonstrates, a new entrant showing up with their first EV is enough for a solid year of sales that weren't there before. With that momentum, I see less of an impact in the US from losing incentives than the German market might indicate. 2) Infrastructure - As you point out, NEVI isn't the driving force behind charging expansion, which will happen with or without federal funds. What the NEVI funds do is motivate is filling gaps for a more comprehensive public "network" of the existing players, plus supporting more regional players like Francis Energy in their transition to national players. So while federal funds aren't essential to individual players, they may well be the key to unlocking EV adoption in communities that private funding would otherwise overlook.
Thank you Steve for the insight. Concerning the distinction between main land Europe consumer behavior and U.S., I think we here have been conditioned to purchase more so on emotion then practicality, sadly. So there is a difference, but the loss of the tax credit can not be mental gymnastic away as a good thing and I do think there will be some meaningful effect from its loss to a degree YTBD. it will be interesting to watch and you bring up a good point about H/K killing it w/o fed help. About the infra, it feels like the NEVI program would of been the marquee had it burgeoned in 2020 or 2021. Here is 2024, so many private enterprises are showing up trying to dominate over each other, the NEVI is getting eclipsed. However, you are absolutely right that capitalism will place charging at places that serve their interests. The NEVI program places charging stations at locations in the people’s interest, which is a big win for the populous in general. It will be great to see pips arrive courtesy of the NEVI funds in the dark corners allowing EV drivers to roam without concern. Thx for the thoughtful comment.
Even in markets like California, i feel a nevi /cec like grant is needed in lesser travel areas as most cpo dont want to go there as its much less profitable and tougher to reclaim the cost.
I can’t wait for a new Walter video because it seems like the inner Me is expecting delicious yummy pancakes every time and that makes me sit up and pay attention. Thank you, Walter I think you get a 30% federal income tax credit if you build a charging station and you get accelerated depreciation and as Yogi Berra says, that money is like cash to a business!!!!! That has nothing to do with NEVI. Every person that gets into an electric car loves it. The absolute shite that Buick ICE is building and selling almost reminds me of the K car…… such horrible engineering, and design and implementation. Interestingly, I would not have been able to buy my $52,000 electric vehicle (Hyundai Ioniq 5) without the $7500 federal income tax credit. Hard stop, no doubt about it. I don’t think I would’ve ever bought a Chevy bolt, even though without the tax credit it would’ve been in my budget. I could not afford a Tesla in January 2022 either because the pricing was 35% higher than it is today and no federal income tax credit. This whole thing with muskrat in our government now leads me to believe that EV‘s are going to be pushed by this administration due to $200 million given to the orange orangutan by the pot smoking freak. I gotta say, though, and I’m just as much at fault as everyone else, stop trying to predict the future of this administration. Even the rapist felon liar, has no idea what will happen. And I’m sure he could care less either way.
@@thenetworkarchitectchannel If you look a NEVI the funding first round was for major transportation corridors only. Trying to make sure there was a charging location every 50 miles. At least that was the statement I found on my states proposal. At the time they announced that was the intent the market was not responding and that made perfect sense. That has changed now. It appears clear the main corridors are gong to fill in and even have competition. NEVI probably needs to shift to phase 2 or 3 which bridges underserved communities and rural areas that economically won't get the funding for quite some time due to the perceived demand.
@@Longsnowsm Agreed. I do think the stipulation is when a state has AFC built to NEVI standards, their discretionary funding can then be released. At least that was my understanding. Steve could clarify better then I though.
Once subsidies are removed, EV’s will stand on their own. The moral hurdle of people hating EVs because they’re “forced” to buy them by the govt will be removed and adoption will accelerate.
@@kng128 You’re absolutely right, people will always complain. As EV prices dip lower than ICE, it will become harder to complain, but they will. Of course, I’m sure ICE fans will find a way to blame EVs for making ICE more expensive.
A fair summery, my LYRIQ serves me well for my use case and government involvement won’t change that, so I think sales will continue to improve as more and more folks make the same analysis
Without the tax incentives, automakers are going to have to put into the market place some vehicles with MSRPs that aren't eye watering. We'll also see some incentives at the state levels in more progressive areas of the country. Not total doom and gloom, but things certainly would have been better in the EV transition under the alternative, no point in denying the facts of the matter.
You are perfectly making my points about the lack of impact at this point in time of NEVI. It looks like the market has finally kicked in and they are starting to get things done. NEVI is clearly a choke point for getting things done due to the layer upon layer of "stuff" that has to be negotiated. At the time they set this up and funded it the market place was not responding in any meaningful way. That has changed. To me the tipping point for EVs is the infrastructure. Once there are chargers all over the place EVs will just make more sense for most people. Walmart hasn't event started to really engage yet, but it appears clear they are likely going to flood the zone in 2025 with chargers at their stores. Once Walmart starts deploying and chargers start to appear in rural communities then most of the arguments against EVs will vanish since you will be able to go anywhere and there will be a watering hole in your community if you are big enough to have a Walmart. BP Pulse, Shell and the gas stations appear set to do the same thing. The face of infrastructure dramatically started to shift this year. Thanks to your channel and others you have recommended covering the infrastructure we are aware of what and where the activity is happening. Will ending tax credits and clawing back some of that money matter? It will likely dent sales initially, but frankly at the moment infrastructure is still catching up with the number of cars already out there. Even if it slows sales a little I think the big work in infrastructure continues. 2025 appears to be an exciting year! I saw Ionna announced a new site in Abilene KS yesterday! This is happening!
Almost like "politics doesn't matter". LOL The horses are out of the barn now. The govt just needs to get out of the way. NEVI and other programs should shift to underserved and rural areas to make sure everyone has access.
@@anthonyc8499 Maybe, but there's a good argument that automakers have been inflating their EV pricing as a result of the tax credit. On the back end, I suppose there could be a case that the lower profitability will make automakers not prioritize the transition to EVs, but they still need to build the cars that consumers want (more and more, those are EVs).
Losing the federal EV tax credit will slow EV adoption to some degree. That’s unfortunate because there is an urgent need to significantly reduce automobile pollution and other emissions from burning fossil fuels. Eliminating the EV tax credit will only be the first step in an effort to gut environmental protection laws. It’s all part of the next administration’s Project 25 agenda.
Removing the subsidies may force auto makers to make more affordable EV's. I think it will make leasing the better option. However, there is NO ev mandate that is forcing anyone into only buying an EV as their next car purchase. Petrol cars are not going away overnight, or next year or few years. It will take time for a transition like that to happen. Like when people transitioned from regular cellphones to smartphones. That didn't happen overnight, it took years. I just don't want to see the infrastructure build out get stopped or slowed just because a new administration wants to be hostile to all automakers except one. Over the past year or so We've seen improvements in the infrastructure and want to continue that trend.
Build a better mouse trap & the world will beat a path to your door, the saying goes. Price drops from falling battery prices too will help. Thx 4 watching
I think EV sales will take a small drop when the subsidies are removed but will rebound shortly afterward, as battery prices continue to fall, negating the impact of the loss of the subsidies. At the end of the day, I'm expecting more EVs to be sold at the end of Trump's term than at the beginning. As Walter said, the investments that private companies are making in EV charging infrastructure with their own money speaks for itself. They wouldn't do that if they thought EV sales were going to disappear. (For the record, I bought my EV without any subsidies, and have yet to charge at a single NEVI-funded charging site).
oh, I do not think I could choose one. They are both good in their own special way. Mickie Dees has forged the path of toys with a dinner meal. Taco Bell has baha blast mountain dew.
Battery prices are dropping like crazy and production is really ramping up domestically. I've always sorta got the impression that the rebates/incentives just raised MSRP. Here our rebate is being cut from 7k to 4k and media has been doom/gloom with "experts"
With a purely apolitical ICE vs EV comparison for most use cases, the EV wins. Involvement of bureaucrats, politicians & subsidies only serves to muddy the water and drive many potential adopters away.
Thanks for the video. Excellent insights. I don’t have any data, but it sure SEEMS that the automakers have decided that LONG TERM EV’s are going to be much more profitable for them. If you just look at the complexities of an ICE car versus an EV, it surely has to be something less costly to make ONCE all the obstacles are ironed out. And obstacles such as battery cost and infrastructure, as you pointed out, are aggressively being ironed out. Sure looks like they have all decided that the long term business model for EV’s wins and they are all racing to be competitive.
Tariffs are the wildcard. This will increase the costs on everything. ICE and EV will take hits. The domestic auto industry supply chains cross the border many times. I could see that slowing total NA volume. I expect there will be a flattening of the curve, but it may still grow. I think the CPOs are playing the long game. They know we are creatures of habit, and they want us used to stopping at their sites. PFJ, Loves, and TA know this, and also know that eventually there will be more EVs on the road. One benefit to slowing EV sales is a chance for the infrastructure to catch up to demand. Tariff impacts on charge equipment could impact this, though there is an increase in local production. Time will tell.
One more thing to consider. If a 25% tariff on goods imported from Canada is implemented, this will drive up the cost of imported Canadian oil by said amount. This will drive up the cost of gasoline by at least that much. About 60% of US oil imports is from Canada. IMO, the rise in the price of gas will increase the sale of EVs, as people realize that ICE cars are more expensive to fuel than EVs. Trump, in his infinite wisdom, will actually spur the adoption of electric vehicles.
So I don’t really watch the news. What u r describing sounds so strange. Y r we protecting the US from Canada? Like the dumb military fort on Macanac Island or something?
I agree with your thoughts Walter. We've reached a critical mass of EVs on the road now such that skeptics can't rely on purely theoretical arguments against the transition. When your neighbor has been driving one for a couple of years with no issues, it seems a lot less scary and politically charged. I see that in my personal interactions with friends, coworkers, and neighbors. Reduced federal funding may result in slower uptake in rural and lower income areas in the short term due to otherwise cost prohibitive fast charging not getting installed in remote areas and economic challenges for vehicle purchases, respectively. But even these will come along with time. I want it to happen overnight, but I realize that's not realistic. Slow and steady wins the race as they say.
Thx Allen. Steve pointed out Hyundai/ Kia would love for it to go away. They have been on the short end of that deal. IMHO, EVs improve the quality of life for their owners making the transition a way to be greater good minded. Thx 4 watching
I expect to see the same EV trend in the US as they had/have in Germany. EV sales had a BIG spike just before incentives were removed. Users that wanted to buy an EV in the next few years bought one now (instead of waiting) to take advantage of the incentive. This creates a spike followed by a drop in sales. EV fans would say - "look at the growth of EV sales, everyone wants one!" - pointing at the spike. EV haters would say - "look, after the removal of incentives the demand does not exist" - pointing at the drop. And the truth lies in the trend (same as looking at the stock market - don't look at a day/month highs or lows) look at the overall trajectory over years to figure out the trend.
My take: the northern 1/3 of the country gets its gasoline from Canadian crude oil. When that gas costs 20% more because of tariffs, EVs will be VERY attractive.
I think one of the big outstanding questions for 2025 is how much are certain states/areas going to resist EV charging? Example: Being in OH and having friends in Charlotte means traveling I-77 in WV, which is ROUGH. If places like this continue to either not take NEVI funding or get private businesses to do it on their own, what will that mean for tourism and travel within their state? Will we see modifications to NEVI to help address things like tourism?
Another point: Several manufacturers are already building factories in America. If Trump does implement tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and other countries, won’t that raise the price of cars, both EV and ICE? The US factories should be free from any tariffs.
Cars assembled in the US still use a lot of imported components from Canada and Mexico. Tariffs would increase the cost of those US-made cars too, albeit less so compared to imported cars.
After getting some public support which is how it typically works. See railroads, ports, agriculture, rural electrification, highways, airports, GPS, cellphones, and the internet. I am sure there are many other examples.
Was the Brown Consulting study predicting 1.8m EV sales in 2025 done before or after the election bacause that could change things. Also, while NEVI funding may be locked in all the EV station commitments will still be based on projected sales growth. If EV sales plummet , especially for non Tesla cars, I expect the projected growth in station numbers will all plummet. Hopefully worst case scenarios don’t come to fruition butI think the case can be worse than most expect.
After is my understanding. I respectfully disagree DCFC builds are tied to vehicle sales numbers. Instead I believe a better correlation is tied to battery prices. Thx 4 watching
I don’t think a new car tax credit is necessary in regions with a higher percentage of ev adoption. As those areas will have higher percentage of used EVs also lowering the cost to ownership.
IMO, the largest impediment to EV adoption is the price of the car. The $7500 credit was designed to be a "stop gap" to make the price of EVs more reasonable while the manufacturers got their manufacturing costs down. I'm not sure it worked this way....seems most manufacturers took the money but weren't focused on reducing manufacturing costs. I agree with you that the declining cost of batteries will fix this. If the $7500 credit/rebate goes away, I think we'll see a decline in EV adoption until the cost of batteries make them more affordable. Elon doesn't seem to be worried about this because they have focused on cost reduction and have "room" in their profit margin to reduce costs to keep sales up. IMO that's why he said the EV industry doesn't need incentives.
Agree, but there is the caveat that tariffs may push battery costs up, and we don't know how much. The good news is that the Inflation Reduction Act has put a lot of money into creating a domestic supply chain of EV battery components, which, once it comes online, should hopefully be impervious to tariffs (my understanding is that money that has already been awarded cannot be taken back, and that some Republicans might get cold feet at repealing incentives for battery manufacturing, as it's creating a lot of jobs in red states and districts).
I don't like using Germany's 12.9% drop to compare to what might happen here. First the US has around 4 times the population of Germany which means every person over there has 4 times the impact on the percentage than here. Second Europe as a whole has a lot more cheap small Ice options than here due to our like of trucks and SUV's.
4 sure the EU market is a different animal. I concede all you say. It is just something to hang a hat on of relevance as of late I felt worth calling out, but for sure the U.S. behaves differently.
@@CBS-15 Don't disagree that Musk isn't an endearing personality. However to Walter's point EV's have become very tribal in nature with the dems avoiding Tesla not because he's a jerk, but because he is a Trump supporter.
Or republicans to non-Tesla as is the case for me. The M3 was just to low for us old people. Cadillac knew we were coming. We simply had no defense as our tired bones sunk into those cushions they make their seats out of. Thx for watching and the thoughtful comments.
The new administration is not going to be unfriendly toward EV sales and production......this is an important and growing part of the Auto Market in the USA; jobs and economic growth. They will be unfriendly toward Chinese EV manufacturing and sales in the USA. We own two Chevy BOLT EV's. EV's are superior technology and are here to stay!!!!!!!!!!!!
Another major factor that will impact EV adoption is independent workshop access to OEM parts and software to diag and work on these cars. The dealership experience at non Tesla makes leave a lot to be desired. Some dealers are gouging EV owners on basic service to "recoup"
Great video, which makes a lot of sense to me, but the various potential players in the upcoming administration are so incompetent and irrational I find it very hard to predict what they might do. Not to be too cynical, but has anyone asked RFK his opinion on EV’s and high-power chargers? For all I know he may think they’re dangerous to human health like 5G towers.
The real action is in china which is the largest auto market in the world. For every vehicle sold in the US, 2 are sold in china. In 2024, china sold > 50% of its vehicles as EVs and that was in March and the pace is only accelerating. All legacy oems made substantial profits in china selling ice vehicles but with the increase in Chinese ev sales in China, the likes of gm, stolantis, ford, Toyota, vw, Nissan are losing their shirts. Both Nissan and vw are facing bankruptcy in the next 12 months because they lost their ice china sales. Chinese EVs are state of the art and competitive with ice vehicles price wise. Thats why both us and eu slapped tariffs on these products. Both nations are scared of the competition. Trump will have a negative impact on the transition to evs. China sells evs to 70 nations. Even mexico has cheaper and better evs than what Americans can buy. Worse yet, in retaliation to trump's tariff threats, china has banned export of rare earths to the US. This will negatively affect us ability to build everything from semiconductors to mobile phones to, you guessed it, EVs. So, the largest auto market has set the pace: more EVs or oems don't make money. Good quality EVs are appearing everywhere from south America, Africa, eu, Australia, etc. yet, Trump's bluster will prevent the US from manufacturing and competing in the ev market because rare earths will be difficult to come by.
You summarize the current situation well. IMHO, the only metric that matters is battery prices. As they continue to drop, everything else including geo politics, will work themselves out. Thx for taking the time to post a thoughtful comment
I agree, EVs don’t need subsidies. It’s just a simple value per dollar proposition. Having an engine powering any device makes the experience more complicated than just having a battery.
People will still buy EVs during the next 4 years, simply because they are BETTER cars. No question. However, I suspect that there will be a marked slowdown, not just because incentives and infrastructure funds will be cut, but more importantly because the fossil fuel industry will continue to spread its anti-EV propaganda far and wide. They are relentless, and have more mammon for advertising, articles, faux "studies," and intense lobbying than non-profits like the Electric Vehicle Association or Plug-In America can ever hope to match.
A report came out Tuesday that Tesla has abandoned their plan to build their NEVI-funded sites in Oklahoma. This is due to a stipulation the state placed that all NEVI-funded Supercharger units must be equipped with Magic Docks. According to the state, since Tesla no longer makes or equips their dispensers with Magic Docks, they are no longer eligible for those funds. Supposedly, EVGo will be receiving those NEVI funds instead. EVGo has no current presence in Oklahoma, so this will give them an opening into the market. All those new Superchargers were supposed to be located along I-40 in the eastern half of Oklahoma, where Tesla has never built any Superchargers.
@@firstbigbarney That would be fine but you have to have the Supercharger sites installed to be able to use those adaptors. So now the infamous 200 mile gap for Superchargers along I-40 in the eastern half of Oklahoma will remain. Tesla could build these sites themselves without using NEVI funds. They are doing that all across the country, but along this Interstate they have built nothing. In fact, all across Oklahoma along I-40 there are only 2 Superchargers, one V2 in Oklahoma City and a V2 in Weatherford. It is 275 miles north to the next east/west Interstate route, I-70, and 200 miles south to the next one, US 287.
It might make a small dent, but the cat's out of the bag. The snowball is happening.
Solid analysis on the key aspects of EV uptake next year and beyond. Couple of thoughts on each:
1) Sales - The German auto market was more mature when incentives departed, with a wide array of models already in place. The US has a significant number of automakers (like Dodge, Ford, Honda) and key models/segments (like the Bolt EV, EREV trucks, small truck/Maverick-style EV) that have yet to fully bake their line-up, or even to hit the market in some cases.
Every new category, from affordable compacts to new entrant and electrified trucks, brings a new US buyer segment to EVs. While some may be sensitive to pricing, in most cases that gap will be bridged by manufacturer discounts and state incentives, as we've seen with the likes of Hyundai and Kia models. And as the Honda Prologue's success demonstrates, a new entrant showing up with their first EV is enough for a solid year of sales that weren't there before. With that momentum, I see less of an impact in the US from losing incentives than the German market might indicate.
2) Infrastructure - As you point out, NEVI isn't the driving force behind charging expansion, which will happen with or without federal funds. What the NEVI funds do is motivate is filling gaps for a more comprehensive public "network" of the existing players, plus supporting more regional players like Francis Energy in their transition to national players. So while federal funds aren't essential to individual players, they may well be the key to unlocking EV adoption in communities that private funding would otherwise overlook.
Thank you Steve for the insight. Concerning the distinction between main land Europe consumer behavior and U.S., I think we here have been conditioned to purchase more so on emotion then practicality, sadly. So there is a difference, but the loss of the tax credit can not be mental gymnastic away as a good thing and I do think there will be some meaningful effect from its loss to a degree YTBD. it will be interesting to watch and you bring up a good point about H/K killing it w/o fed help. About the infra, it feels like the NEVI program would of been the marquee had it burgeoned in 2020 or 2021. Here is 2024, so many private enterprises are showing up trying to dominate over each other, the NEVI is getting eclipsed. However, you are absolutely right that capitalism will place charging at places that serve their interests. The NEVI program places charging stations at locations in the people’s interest, which is a big win for the populous in general. It will be great to see pips arrive courtesy of the NEVI funds in the dark corners allowing EV drivers to roam without concern. Thx for the thoughtful comment.
Even in markets like California, i feel a nevi /cec like grant is needed in lesser travel areas as most cpo dont want to go there as its much less profitable and tougher to reclaim the cost.
I can’t wait for a new Walter video because it seems like the inner Me is expecting delicious yummy pancakes every time and that makes me sit up and pay attention. Thank you, Walter
I think you get a 30% federal income tax credit if you build a charging station and you get accelerated depreciation and as Yogi Berra says, that money is like cash to a business!!!!! That has nothing to do with NEVI.
Every person that gets into an electric car loves it. The absolute shite that Buick ICE is building and selling almost reminds me of the K car…… such horrible engineering, and design and implementation.
Interestingly, I would not have been able to buy my $52,000 electric vehicle (Hyundai Ioniq 5) without the $7500 federal income tax credit. Hard stop, no doubt about it.
I don’t think I would’ve ever bought a Chevy bolt, even though without the tax credit it would’ve been in my budget. I could not afford a Tesla in January 2022 either because the pricing was 35% higher than it is today and no federal income tax credit.
This whole thing with muskrat in our government now leads me to believe that EV‘s are going to be pushed by this administration due to $200 million given to the orange orangutan by the pot smoking freak.
I gotta say, though, and I’m just as much at fault as everyone else, stop trying to predict the future of this administration. Even the rapist felon liar, has no idea what will happen. And I’m sure he could care less either way.
@@thenetworkarchitectchannel If you look a NEVI the funding first round was for major transportation corridors only. Trying to make sure there was a charging location every 50 miles. At least that was the statement I found on my states proposal. At the time they announced that was the intent the market was not responding and that made perfect sense. That has changed now. It appears clear the main corridors are gong to fill in and even have competition. NEVI probably needs to shift to phase 2 or 3 which bridges underserved communities and rural areas that economically won't get the funding for quite some time due to the perceived demand.
@@Longsnowsm Agreed. I do think the stipulation is when a state has AFC built to NEVI standards, their discretionary funding can then be released. At least that was my understanding. Steve could clarify better then I though.
2030 will be game changing if batteries are cheaper than replacing an engine. Very cool!!! Thanks, Walter.
Once subsidies are removed, EV’s will stand on their own. The moral hurdle of people hating EVs because they’re “forced” to buy them by the govt will be removed and adoption will accelerate.
Totally agree. A bit of a pause followed be continued growth
I think people will still complain they are forced to buy them. There are multiple states that have ICE Sales prohibition laws.
@@kng128 You’re absolutely right, people will always complain. As EV prices dip lower than ICE, it will become harder to complain, but they will. Of course, I’m sure ICE fans will find a way to blame EVs for making ICE more expensive.
Because we have a nation full of ignorant children
A fair summery, my LYRIQ serves me well for my use case and government involvement won’t change that, so I think sales will continue to improve as more and more folks make the same analysis
Without the tax incentives, automakers are going to have to put into the market place some vehicles with MSRPs that aren't eye watering. We'll also see some incentives at the state levels in more progressive areas of the country. Not total doom and gloom, but things certainly would have been better in the EV transition under the alternative, no point in denying the facts of the matter.
Is a 1LT Equinox going to be a thing? Just under 30K USD would be amazing value. My GM Contact here in Canada said 36-37k CDN
Love my bolt, seamless charging over holiday.
Glad you had a good vacation. Stay safe and warm.
You are perfectly making my points about the lack of impact at this point in time of NEVI. It looks like the market has finally kicked in and they are starting to get things done. NEVI is clearly a choke point for getting things done due to the layer upon layer of "stuff" that has to be negotiated. At the time they set this up and funded it the market place was not responding in any meaningful way. That has changed. To me the tipping point for EVs is the infrastructure. Once there are chargers all over the place EVs will just make more sense for most people. Walmart hasn't event started to really engage yet, but it appears clear they are likely going to flood the zone in 2025 with chargers at their stores. Once Walmart starts deploying and chargers start to appear in rural communities then most of the arguments against EVs will vanish since you will be able to go anywhere and there will be a watering hole in your community if you are big enough to have a Walmart. BP Pulse, Shell and the gas stations appear set to do the same thing. The face of infrastructure dramatically started to shift this year. Thanks to your channel and others you have recommended covering the infrastructure we are aware of what and where the activity is happening.
Will ending tax credits and clawing back some of that money matter? It will likely dent sales initially, but frankly at the moment infrastructure is still catching up with the number of cars already out there. Even if it slows sales a little I think the big work in infrastructure continues. 2025 appears to be an exciting year! I saw Ionna announced a new site in Abilene KS yesterday! This is happening!
Hot take: The U.S. President has little to no impact on the number of EVs sold. The movement toward EVs is inexorable as the kids these days say.
That word is now inexorable in my brain. Likely never leaves
Almost like "politics doesn't matter". LOL The horses are out of the barn now. The govt just needs to get out of the way. NEVI and other programs should shift to underserved and rural areas to make sure everyone has access.
Import tariffs can crush the nascent EV industry. The repeal of incentives for on shoring factories can kill the speed of domestic development of EVs.
@@anthonyc8499 Maybe, but there's a good argument that automakers have been inflating their EV pricing as a result of the tax credit. On the back end, I suppose there could be a case that the lower profitability will make automakers not prioritize the transition to EVs, but they still need to build the cars that consumers want (more and more, those are EVs).
Fantastic factual video a lot of us need to hear, thank you
I’m glad I could help. Stay safe out there. Watch yourn topknot.
Losing the federal EV tax credit will slow EV adoption to some degree. That’s unfortunate because there is an urgent need to significantly reduce automobile pollution and other emissions from burning fossil fuels. Eliminating the EV tax credit will only be the first step in an effort to gut environmental protection laws. It’s all part of the next administration’s Project 25 agenda.
Removing the subsidies may force auto makers to make more affordable EV's. I think it will make leasing the better option.
However, there is NO ev mandate that is forcing anyone into only buying an EV as their next car purchase. Petrol cars are not going away overnight, or next year or few years. It will take time for a transition like that to happen. Like when people transitioned from regular cellphones to smartphones. That didn't happen overnight, it took years.
I just don't want to see the infrastructure build out get stopped or slowed just because a new administration wants to be hostile to all automakers except one. Over the past year or so We've seen improvements in the infrastructure and want to continue that trend.
Build a better mouse trap & the world will beat a path to your door, the saying goes. Price drops from falling battery prices too will help. Thx 4 watching
Thank you for this, I’ve been worried.
Me too, but seems things are moving in the right direction.
I think EV sales will take a small drop when the subsidies are removed but will rebound shortly afterward, as battery prices continue to fall, negating the impact of the loss of the subsidies. At the end of the day, I'm expecting more EVs to be sold at the end of Trump's term than at the beginning.
As Walter said, the investments that private companies are making in EV charging infrastructure with their own money speaks for itself. They wouldn't do that if they thought EV sales were going to disappear.
(For the record, I bought my EV without any subsidies, and have yet to charge at a single NEVI-funded charging site).
Taco Bell versus McDonald's 😂😂 That is my grandchildren's Sophie's Choice. Sometimes, they then say Chic fil a, Mimaw. Viva le choix!!!
oh, I do not think I could choose one. They are both good in their own special way. Mickie Dees has forged the path of toys with a dinner meal. Taco Bell has baha blast mountain dew.
Battery prices are dropping like crazy and production is really ramping up domestically. I've always sorta got the impression that the rebates/incentives just raised MSRP. Here our rebate is being cut from 7k to 4k and media has been doom/gloom with "experts"
With a purely apolitical ICE vs EV comparison for most use cases, the EV wins. Involvement of bureaucrats, politicians & subsidies only serves to muddy the water and drive many potential adopters away.
Well said.
The transition will slow as consumers and manufacturers get less incentives. But it is inevitable.
agreed. Better mouse trap.
Thanks for the video. Excellent insights. I don’t have any data, but it sure SEEMS that the automakers have decided that LONG TERM EV’s are going to be much more profitable for them. If you just look at the complexities of an ICE car versus an EV, it surely has to be something less costly to make ONCE all the obstacles are ironed out. And obstacles such as battery cost and infrastructure, as you pointed out, are aggressively being ironed out.
Sure looks like they have all decided that the long term business model for EV’s wins and they are all racing to be competitive.
I think so. The Chinese damn will burst eventually and if the domestics don’t have game, they will just be closing factories. Thx 4 watching
Tariffs are the wildcard. This will increase the costs on everything. ICE and EV will take hits. The domestic auto industry supply chains cross the border many times. I could see that slowing total NA volume. I expect there will be a flattening of the curve, but it may still grow. I think the CPOs are playing the long game. They know we are creatures of habit, and they want us used to stopping at their sites. PFJ, Loves, and TA know this, and also know that eventually there will be more EVs on the road. One benefit to slowing EV sales is a chance for the infrastructure to catch up to demand. Tariff impacts on charge equipment could impact this, though there is an increase in local production.
Time will tell.
One more thing to consider. If a 25% tariff on goods imported from Canada is implemented, this will drive up the cost of imported Canadian oil by said amount. This will drive up the cost of gasoline by at least that much. About 60% of US oil imports is from Canada. IMO, the rise in the price of gas will increase the sale of EVs, as people realize that ICE cars are more expensive to fuel than EVs. Trump, in his infinite wisdom, will actually spur the adoption of electric vehicles.
So I don’t really watch the news. What u r describing sounds so strange. Y r we protecting the US from Canada? Like the dumb military fort on Macanac Island or something?
I agree with your thoughts Walter. We've reached a critical mass of EVs on the road now such that skeptics can't rely on purely theoretical arguments against the transition. When your neighbor has been driving one for a couple of years with no issues, it seems a lot less scary and politically charged. I see that in my personal interactions with friends, coworkers, and neighbors.
Reduced federal funding may result in slower uptake in rural and lower income areas in the short term due to otherwise cost prohibitive fast charging not getting installed in remote areas and economic challenges for vehicle purchases, respectively. But even these will come along with time.
I want it to happen overnight, but I realize that's not realistic. Slow and steady wins the race as they say.
Thx Allen. Steve pointed out Hyundai/ Kia would love for it to go away. They have been on the short end of that deal. IMHO, EVs improve the quality of life for their owners making the transition a way to be greater good minded. Thx 4 watching
I expect to see the same EV trend in the US as they had/have in Germany.
EV sales had a BIG spike just before incentives were removed.
Users that wanted to buy an EV in the next few years bought one now (instead of waiting) to take advantage of the incentive.
This creates a spike followed by a drop in sales.
EV fans would say - "look at the growth of EV sales, everyone wants one!" - pointing at the spike.
EV haters would say - "look, after the removal of incentives the demand does not exist" - pointing at the drop.
And the truth lies in the trend (same as looking at the stock market - don't look at a day/month highs or lows) look at the overall trajectory over years to figure out the trend.
Well said. I too agree as you state. You did do more eloquently then I was able. Thank u 4 the spot on comment
My take: the northern 1/3 of the country gets its gasoline from Canadian crude oil. When that gas costs 20% more because of tariffs, EVs will be VERY attractive.
last gas crisis, my inner evil enjoyed driving past the gas station lines in my EV. Don't judge. I am still working on my faults. ;-}
Presidents can't stop the advancement of technology
They can sure try....
no army can withstand the force of an idea who's time has come. Thx 4 watching. Stay warm.
I hope your right, I agree with you that Evs are here to stay
EVGO gets money for chargers.Guaranteed by what???
DeE, but they have to pay it back
@@thenetworkarchitectchannel With all negative earnings...2024 projected loss of $32-38 million on 350 million of sales...
@@thenetworkarchitectchannel What are they going to pay it back with all their loses?
they r on target to profitability next year according to their trend lines.
I think one of the big outstanding questions for 2025 is how much are certain states/areas going to resist EV charging? Example: Being in OH and having friends in Charlotte means traveling I-77 in WV, which is ROUGH. If places like this continue to either not take NEVI funding or get private businesses to do it on their own, what will that mean for tourism and travel within their state? Will we see modifications to NEVI to help address things like tourism?
Tesla helps with the WV issue. Plugshare is showing 6 charging locations and only one is listed as Tesla only.
I recently check this. The big issue is the seventy nine interstate. Thing is pretty dark.
Another point: Several manufacturers are already building factories in America. If Trump does implement tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and other countries, won’t that raise the price of cars, both EV and ICE? The US factories should be free from any tariffs.
Cars assembled in the US still use a lot of imported components from Canada and Mexico. Tariffs would increase the cost of those US-made cars too, albeit less so compared to imported cars.
@ Damn, totally forgot that.
Looks like the free market is working 👍
After getting some public support which is how it typically works. See railroads, ports, agriculture, rural electrification, highways, airports, GPS, cellphones, and the internet. I am sure there are many other examples.
Was the Brown Consulting study predicting 1.8m EV sales in 2025 done before or after the election bacause that could change things. Also, while NEVI funding may be locked in all the EV station commitments will still be based on projected sales growth. If EV sales plummet , especially for non Tesla cars, I expect the projected growth in station numbers will all plummet. Hopefully worst case scenarios don’t come to fruition butI think the case can be worse than most expect.
After is my understanding. I respectfully disagree DCFC builds are tied to vehicle sales numbers. Instead I believe a better correlation is tied to battery prices. Thx 4 watching
Bold move on a sensitive topic. Thanks hope you do not get flooded with negative comments.
Nah, I’m good. Thx for caring though. Stay safe
I don’t think a new car tax credit is necessary in regions with a higher percentage of ev adoption. As those areas will have higher percentage of used EVs also lowering the cost to ownership.
Good point
Lots of EV buyers work in tech and medical making over the IRS $150K income limit for the $7500 EV tax credit. They buy the EV regardless.
What effect will huge tarrifs have on the price of electric cars? I believe a lot of batteries and battery parts are imported.
GM is insulated as their production is domestic except for their one assembly plant in Mexico. U r correct though. That is an area of concern
IMO, the largest impediment to EV adoption is the price of the car. The $7500 credit was designed to be a "stop gap" to make the price of EVs more reasonable while the manufacturers got their manufacturing costs down. I'm not sure it worked this way....seems most manufacturers took the money but weren't focused on reducing manufacturing costs. I agree with you that the declining cost of batteries will fix this. If the $7500 credit/rebate goes away, I think we'll see a decline in EV adoption until the cost of batteries make them more affordable.
Elon doesn't seem to be worried about this because they have focused on cost reduction and have "room" in their profit margin to reduce costs to keep sales up. IMO that's why he said the EV industry doesn't need incentives.
Much truth in what u say. Bring the Chinese like price war home b4 the competition is ready. Shrewd
Agree, but there is the caveat that tariffs may push battery costs up, and we don't know how much. The good news is that the Inflation Reduction Act has put a lot of money into creating a domestic supply chain of EV battery components, which, once it comes online, should hopefully be impervious to tariffs (my understanding is that money that has already been awarded cannot be taken back, and that some Republicans might get cold feet at repealing incentives for battery manufacturing, as it's creating a lot of jobs in red states and districts).
I don't like using Germany's 12.9% drop to compare to what might happen here. First the US has around 4 times the population of Germany which means every person over there has 4 times the impact on the percentage than here. Second Europe as a whole has a lot more cheap small Ice options than here due to our like of trucks and SUV's.
4 sure the EU market is a different animal. I concede all you say. It is just something to hang a hat on of relevance as of late I felt worth calling out, but for sure the U.S. behaves differently.
I like the Mercedes 400kw chargers. I have an 800V EV.
Me as well. Looking forward to getting on the alpi ones soon
Maybe what we need is aT-Shirt that says "Make Tesla Great Again" to attract the democratic camp.
😂😂 it's simple, Tesla needs a new leader to attract dems. doesn't matter if the leader is Rep or Dem. Just a better personality
@@CBS-15 Don't disagree that Musk isn't an endearing personality. However to Walter's point EV's have become very tribal in nature with the dems avoiding Tesla not because he's a jerk, but because he is a Trump supporter.
Or republicans to non-Tesla as is the case for me. The M3 was just to low for us old people. Cadillac knew we were coming. We simply had no defense as our tired bones sunk into those cushions they make their seats out of. Thx for watching and the thoughtful comments.
@@thenetworkarchitectchannel Indeed, demonstrates the value of an independent thinker.
The new administration is not going to be unfriendly toward EV sales and production......this is an important and growing part of the Auto Market in the USA; jobs and economic growth. They will be unfriendly toward Chinese EV manufacturing and sales in the USA. We own two Chevy BOLT EV's. EV's are superior technology and are here to stay!!!!!!!!!!!!
Well said. Thx for the comment
Another major factor that will impact EV adoption is independent workshop access to OEM parts and software to diag and work on these cars.
The dealership experience at non Tesla makes leave a lot to be desired.
Some dealers are gouging EV owners on basic service to "recoup"
3rd party parts would be wonderful. Great point!
Thanks, Walter. Republicans will buy Teslas. Dems will buy non-Teslas.😅😅 Pepsi vs. Coke.
😃 4 sure oversimplified but there are camps forming. I don’t fit. Rep voted Harris in a Cadi & Volvo so broke the mold right there.
People will be saving their money to buy bread when trump deports 10 million farm workers. No money left for extravagant purchases like cars😢
Yeah, so I don't watch the news, but herd bout this round church. Crazy if it actually happens like that. Thx for watching.
Im sorry, im a jerk.. I appreciate you and this video.
U r fine. Trump is a jerk
Great video, which makes a lot of sense to me, but the various potential players in the upcoming administration are so incompetent and irrational I find it very hard to predict what they might do. Not to be too cynical, but has anyone asked RFK his opinion on EV’s and high-power chargers? For all I know he may think they’re dangerous to human health like 5G towers.
5G causes syphilis. Right? I always wear tin foil over my scalp when in a 5G zone
The real action is in china which is the largest auto market in the world. For every vehicle sold in the US, 2 are sold in china. In 2024, china sold > 50% of its vehicles as EVs and that was in March and the pace is only accelerating. All legacy oems made substantial profits in china selling ice vehicles but with the increase in Chinese ev sales in China, the likes of gm, stolantis, ford, Toyota, vw, Nissan are losing their shirts. Both Nissan and vw are facing bankruptcy in the next 12 months because they lost their ice china sales. Chinese EVs are state of the art and competitive with ice vehicles price wise. Thats why both us and eu slapped tariffs on these products. Both nations are scared of the competition.
Trump will have a negative impact on the transition to evs. China sells evs to 70 nations. Even mexico has cheaper and better evs than what Americans can buy. Worse yet, in retaliation to trump's tariff threats, china has banned export of rare earths to the US. This will negatively affect us ability to build everything from semiconductors to mobile phones to, you guessed it, EVs. So, the largest auto market has set the pace: more EVs or oems don't make money. Good quality EVs are appearing everywhere from south America, Africa, eu, Australia, etc. yet, Trump's bluster will prevent the US from manufacturing and competing in the ev market because rare earths will be difficult to come by.
You summarize the current situation well. IMHO, the only metric that matters is battery prices. As they continue to drop, everything else including geo politics, will work themselves out. Thx for taking the time to post a thoughtful comment
I agree, EVs don’t need subsidies. It’s just a simple value per dollar proposition. Having an engine powering any device makes the experience more complicated than just having a battery.
Truth. I love not having an engine. Simplifies ✌️
@ same here. Been engine free for about a year.
People will still buy EVs during the next 4 years, simply because they are BETTER cars. No question. However, I suspect that there will be a marked slowdown, not just because incentives and infrastructure funds will be cut, but more importantly because the fossil fuel industry will continue to spread its anti-EV propaganda far and wide. They are relentless, and have more mammon for advertising, articles, faux "studies," and intense lobbying than non-profits like the Electric Vehicle Association or Plug-In America can ever hope to match.
A report came out Tuesday that Tesla has abandoned their plan to build their NEVI-funded sites in Oklahoma. This is due to a stipulation the state placed that all NEVI-funded Supercharger units must be equipped with Magic Docks. According to the state, since Tesla no longer makes or equips their dispensers with Magic Docks, they are no longer eligible for those funds. Supposedly, EVGo will be receiving those NEVI funds instead. EVGo has no current presence in Oklahoma, so this will give them an opening into the market. All those new Superchargers were supposed to be located along I-40 in the eastern half of Oklahoma, where Tesla has never built any Superchargers.
Interesting. That crew is all business. No time for paperwork that slows things down.
Just put in NACS plugs and let users use adapters.
@@firstbigbarney That would be fine but you have to have the Supercharger sites installed to be able to use those adaptors. So now the infamous 200 mile gap for Superchargers along I-40 in the eastern half of Oklahoma will remain. Tesla could build these sites themselves without using NEVI funds. They are doing that all across the country, but along this Interstate they have built nothing. In fact, all across Oklahoma along I-40 there are only 2 Superchargers, one V2 in Oklahoma City and a V2 in Weatherford. It is 275 miles north to the next east/west Interstate route, I-70, and 200 miles south to the next one, US 287.
@glenngore6609 PFJ the win on I-40 in OK! They r gonna have 4, all with canopies!
@@glenngore6609 How many CCS stations are there???
Ionna just added a new site: 2309 N Buckeye Ave, Abilene, KS (Opening Soon) I don't see a PIP in PS. Let's goooo.