How Bad Is China’s Demographic Crisis?
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 18 ม.ค. 2023
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For the first time in decades, China's population actually declined, and they face one of the lowest birth rates in the world and an ageing population. So just how big a problem is this? And after so many failed policies, what can the CCP do to fix it?
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1 - www.ft.com/content/00b48183-0...
2 - www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/arti...
3 - www.economist.com/china/2017/...
4 - nationalinterest.org/blog/the...
5 - www.economist.com/china/2021/...
6 - www.economist.com/graphic-det...
7 - www.ft.com/content/008ea78a-8...
8 - edition.cnn.com/2022/01/17/ec...
9 - / 1615352349056434176
10 - jobenomics.com/consumption-ba...
As a new father living in China, I can say that, from my experience, people here generally admit that the birth rate needs to improve, but barely anyone wants more than one child. It's just so much money and hassle here
China today doesn't have enough extra resource and land to encourage their population to boom birthday rate, such is also the case of Japan and South Korea which are not Communist,
by China will have more means and solutions than them two, for example, developing new energy ot colonizing Space to get new lands and resources,
@@Emilechen I think those two examples would need far too much time to be a solution to this issue. I think quicker solutions would be higher quality maternity hospitals at cheaper costs, better infrastructure with baby strollers (and wheelchairs) in mind, especially within public transport, or, very simply, state-run community childcare programmes. It seems like here, once you've had your child, you're on your own, and I think that really scares a lot of people. There's no ante natal classes, no family-oriented community centers, you just have to try your best on your own. I think that could be easily fixed for not a huge amount of money.
@@stevenbrodie404 your solution are reasonable and excellent,
unfortunately, China today doesn't have such human and material resources to build many higher quality maternity hospitals or provide other social welfare to cover 1,4 billion people,
to be honest, China is exploiting its own population to get industrialized, even Japan and South Korea do the same thing,
Obama has said, if all Chinese population want to have the same life standard as the West, they need 3 or 4 Earth's resources,
of course, China is not going to colonize the World, declare war to the whole World in order to get the rest of World, because it is not profitable and lucrative,
even in the past, China never planned to conquer oversea territories when she is lack of farmland,
so today, most Chinses think that the solutions is to increase productivity and get new resources from Space exploration,
for example, replacing doctors with AI medical robot with 5G tech, or building new colonies on Moon or Mars, or under Oceans,
so it is not just a problem for China and CCP, or a problem of democracy, but a problem that entire Humanity need to face:
we don't have enough resources to provide a good life standard to 7 billions people, if we don't want a World War in the future, we need to find extra resources outside,
@Emilechen all countries post industrialisation have a massively reduced birth rate. It's unavoidable. You can however use immigration to make that not a problem
@@lowercasehorse2363 Other Chinese person here. Immigration is probably a card that China can’t realistically play to solve their population problems because of how difficult the language is to learn.
Japan and China have similar cultural pressures keeping birthrates low, like extreme work expectations and very high social pressures.
south korea also experiencing this
@@Lizkrrrr Come to think of it, China might benefit from the population decline, each citizen gets more resources in future generations. An economic crash would also be good in the long term, as China's economy can restructure. Wage hikes benefit future generations and help the country have increase in per capita income. Getting to UK standards in per capita GDP while population declines to US levels isn't gonna to be that bad for China. The average Chinese probably cares more about living standards than which country is doing well in the global stage.
@@1mol831 that is a very interesting way of thinking! thanks for sharing your view mate!
But you're ignoring the fact older people (like 60 years and older) contribute less to the economy than younger people and require more medical care which is also a drain on the economy.
@@1mol831 retirees dont generate resources they consume them. China more than any other nation makes things and when they dont have the population to make things anymore theres just less. And its not like people retire at 65 and die at 70-75 anymore. People dont die. They keep living longer and longer pulling pensions the whole time.
Another Chinese person here, albeit I live abroad now: the elephant in the room from a personal finance standpoint is how expensive housing is in most cities. Check any global ranking of housing prices as a multiple of median wage and you would see more than half of the top 10 being Chinese cities. Another factor is time pressure: For most decently paid careers such as tech or finance, work hours are long. Combined with the lack of childcare support (unless you really want to live with your parents/in-laws and they are willing and able to help) means that for most of my cohort of friends who are still in mainland, 1 child is already a lot. Quite a few are quite firm and proud about not having any children and saw it as some sort of break from the filial tradition
would be appreciated if you go back to china
Once again, housing bubbles ruin lives. And the cult of overwork eats babies.
I imagine the price of housing is going to collapse in the future when there's just not enough people to fill them anymore. Correct me if I'm wrong :)
Can't the government force all women to have two kids?
@@lesitte1876 not really. Too liberal thinking for the regime and the patriarchy lol
*introduces policy to limit people having babies*
*less people have babies*
**surprised pikachu face**
This generation wants more babies to start a ponzi scheme. Decrease of population is what pulled china out of the third world.
@elfrjz cause china has 500 times the population of albania?
@Zaydan Alfariz simple answer .Albania is a small insignificant country.lol
@Zaydan Alfariz because if china declines it will also slow down the world economy cause we are all connected. If Albania decline nothing really happens in the world or the world economy its just to small to be relevant.
@Zaydan Alfariz because China is the manufacturer if the world and the whole world depends on China's work force ..it's not really political like people might think
The fact that you guys chose to use the eggplant emoji to show birth is kinda funny
These brits do not understand eggplant, they call it "Aubergine"
Yes, still the choice of emoji is kinda derogatory.
@@ilhamrj2599 'These brits do not understand eggplant, they call it "Aubergine" ' -- bro you do realise that US English isn't the only correct version? Think about where the language originated from.
Where do you think babies come from?
@@seadkolasinac7220 People pick and choose their English, American has the edge. Some people call it American, speak American.
I picked up on it a while back when a sports add was actually a dating add because of hints.
The Anti-Immigration sentiment is not a Ccp issue its an Asian issue even Japan has anti-immigration sentiment and resistant to immigrants.
@@colindeal9343 Thats your opinion not of others
The world doesn't have enough immigrants for China
Immigration of 3rd world people is not a solution but a death knell for the native peoples.
Europeans should stop taking refugees until Asian countries start doing their fair share.
It's not just Asian issues. It's a world wide issues. In us, uk, France those right wing politicians and their media are bashing immigrants ( legal and illegal) everyday. Legal immigration in us is limited to 250k. But poor people entering into us by illegally crossing the border.
The segues to the NordVPN ads are real jarring, especially in this one lmao
The harshness helps you forget about his forehead ‘bindi’ blemish, that otherwise forces viewers to confront uncomfortable teenage memories.
For the past decade, the news about low birthrates was all about Japan. In the coming decade, it will be about Korea and China. In 50 years, the news will be like "INDIA's POPULATION IS SHRINKING!!!"
At least Japan has some sweet robot butlers to make up for it.
More poor people
Means more children
@@nishantsingh7235 it will happen... India is on the way up and the more it industrialises the lower the more the birthrate will shrink like it happened in every other industrial country but 1. It's a good thing, it's a sign of wealth 2. It only becomes a problem when it shrinks to the extent it does in korea and china which makes it a political problem
@@Andreas-pj6np You underestimate the importance of religion in people's life in India which slowly becoming more apparent with rising right wing nationalism.
@@nishantsingh7235 well I am a so called "right wing" Indian and still I think India's population will decrease in future because most people don't mix their political beliefs in personal beliefs . Idk maybe you live in a different part of India or so , but all I can see people are somewhat religious and still don't have much children
The situation in China is actually a lot more concerning in the medium term when you take in to account the gender distribution. China has traditionally favoured boys over girls, and during the one child policy, families would preferably have boy babies, meaning they would quietly cull or abort the girls and try again without telling the government.
This has lead to a huge imbalance, with men outnumbering women by a ratio of 1.11 between ages 10-40.
This means there will be a large percentage of men who will go unmarried in a society that tells you thar you are a failure if you remain unmarried by the age of 40.
With the economy slowing down, there is nothing for these frustrated angry men to do, and that historically has always lead to civil unrest.
I suspect the easiest way for China to deal with this is to start a war to get rid if much of the excess.
You are severely underestimating their problem... It's more to do with the aging population that needs fresh organs to keep themselves alive longer, and they would go to any lengths to get that. As a result of organ transplants being a huge deal in China for the elderly, the immunosuppressants used is a lot, meaning something like Covid comes around and poof, they are dead before they realize what hit them.
They sacrifice their own kinds and other ethnicity within their country, to prop them up to live longer, only to die to nature, because of their greed to attempt to screw the west with a modified virus that they themselves incompetently couldn't secure in their own bio lab, and the viral strain that they stole from Canada and America.
whait: isn't that the Russia was maked?
@@lincolo-san2356 what? If you are talking about gender imbalance in Russia it's the reverse, woman outnumber men by quite a margin.
@@jackyexPerhaps Chinese men and Russian women can marry each other?
@@jackyex ooh sorry. i was thinking that was why Russia invaded Ukraine
Considering how China's government does math, the number may be higher.
Most credible estimates are that it's below 1.0, some have it at around .7. Keeping in mind lies multiply. If they lied in the 80s, that means things are even worst now. If they lied about the gender imbalance it means things are even worst now. In reality they forced a 1.0 fertility rate 40 years ago. And that was when living in China was cheap. You compound a cultural norm of 1.0 rising costs, and the fact there's a much large gender imbalance than predicted, and 0.7 kids per person is very likely.
I usually would agree but not really about something like this. Because it's usually not really the CCP who are changing the numbers, it's local officials because they know that if they report bad numbers to the CCP, it will go badly for them. Local economists and politicians lie about their GDP figures because if they say that they're bad, they'll get fired or maybe even be imprisoned on ''corruption'' charges. Same thing with doctors and covid death numbers. But the people who are taking the census have no real reason to lie because if the Chinese population drop, well, it's not like it's their fault. No one is going to blame them for it. So they have no real reason not to do their job well.
I’ve seen a lot of Americans (of which I am one) specifically commenting on how this isn’t a crisis because the world needs fewer people. They seem to not understand the potential significant negative impacts this will have on the global economy if a solution isn’t determined. Not to mention, there are a lot of elderly people in China who are about to be inadequately cared for…
China will probably will start euthanizing non working senor citizens to save money.
Those folks don't care about the aftereffects. They legitimately thought Thanos doing a Malthusian snap causing half the world's population to die off is a good thing and ignoring the aftermath as shown in the following film...
Exactly. People will hear about population decline and go "Yes, we're too many people anyway!" like it won't negatively affect the young AND the old. There doesn't need to be infinite growth, but the rate at which the population is declining isn't good for anybody.
@@theotherohlourdespadua1131 Marvel doesn't have the smartest writers. America's economy is still having logistical issues, because too many boomers with special skills retired at once. A massive reduction of the workforce with a growing retired population to support is a massive issue for any country.
@@theotherohlourdespadua1131 Having half the population disappear in an instance would throw the economy in to chaos for decades. The percentage of people living in absolute poverty (i.e. the poor of the poor nations), a number that was going down since the 90s, would go up dramatically. And the amount of people living in relative poverty (i.e. the poor of rich nations) would go up as well, and those will then vote for parties that put econemy over enviornmental concerns.
One child is still a lot of work and expense. No government is willing to fund it properly. I’d need an extra $40K annually just to break even. Another $20K for the extra stress.
The problem with immigration to China is that it would be hard for migrants to integrate because of how hard chinese language is
Even if China was an english country. No amount of immigration can compensate for the hundreds of millions of working age people they are going to loose in the next decade.
Also because the Chinese feel superior to everyone else .
yes, unlike english, which is universally thought so many people can migrate to english speaking countries.
Not only that but you have absolutely no human rights
@Zaydan Alfariz because everyone assumes European countries speak English
Thumbnail is hilarious, loved the eggplant with the downward arrow, effective marketing.
The Lancet did a study on this and their forecast was even more dire.
Its hard to say for sure, since Beijing obscures statistics (when it releases any at all). It seems pretty bad, and that's not likely to change soon. Like with most things involving China, the only way to know (with any degree of accuracy) is to watch for secondary effects and try to extrapolate answers based on that.
Birth rate is the least of their worries.
Over 90% of their population are infected.
not to mention majority male
It's well over 90%. Literally only 2/400 people I know of are not yet infected. They are spoofing their numbers
And in terms of deaths, I know of 3 deaths out of the same 400. Not the highest rate but do note that this is among the upper middle class with more access to healthcare.
Covid is a short term problem. In fact it may help since it’ll kill off some of the old people that will become a burden later on. Birthrates are definitely a bigger issue than Covid
1950's: EVERYONE HAVE KIDS
1980's: NO ONE HAVE KIDS
2010's: EVERYONE HAVE KIDS
Can't afford them either
@Zaydan Alfariz China is socialist and they don't have the answer
@Zaydan Alfariz can't afford them even more (i live in Brasil who is at least an "social democracy". Socialism only make the polititians rich
@Zaydan Alfariz yeah? With the poor paying the IRS like they are rich? with 2k real (it's like 500 dolars) you need to pay a lot of taxes. and with 2.000 real you can't even pay 80% of you life expenses...
@@lincolo-san2356 social democracy is capitalism
On the immigration point, remember that China is _very_ _very_ big and still relatively poor in terms of GDP per capita, both in absolute terms and especially relative to its neighbours. China would need about 4.2 million migrants *a year* to match the rate of the US - and ideally those would be younger people with some education. Even if they wanted to encourage immigration, I'm a bit sceptical they'd manage to attract that many people.
À2
Which young educated man would want to immigrate to a sausage fest like china, China is doomed
It’s not inconceivable that China could attract a large number of migrants from Africa. It’s already emerging as a major destination for African students. Even though China is not as prosperous as the US and Europe, it is still significantly richer than much of Sub-Saharan Africa. And as Western attitudes to immigration have grown more hostile, China has the chance to pull more African migrants eastward. Geopolitically it makes sense in the long term as Africa becomes increasingly important on the global stage. Economically it makes sense as it props up the working age population and could help to populate China’s ghost cities and make up for otherwise wasteful infrastructure spending. However, China is relatively ethnically homogenous and the Uyghur genocide don’t give me confidence that harmonious integration is possible.
@@billsykes5392 lol China will never practice mass migration
@@billsykes5392 don't forget places like Burma have alot of displaced people who would gladly go to china
Chyna is doing better then RU though, you gotta give them kudos for not doing anything foolish like war, yet.
Yet.
The wealth disparity, extreme work ethic, high cost of living, status conscious, materialistic and competitive nature of chinese society are all contributing factors, which are further amplified by social media. It's hard to fathom working 60-70 hours per week just to afford a 1 or 2 br apartment which takes 30-40 years to pay off, and still be able to afford a good upbringing for more than one child.
yup worldwide
The reason why China doesn't have immigration is that it was simply a competitive society, there weren't enough jobs, schools, and other services for everyone. They also have a hard time giving their local population residency. Also, it's not an English-speaking country (and immigrants tend to want to go to English-speaking countries or have English as their second language). Obviously, any country would provide for its native/local population first before resorting to any immigration. Japan over the recent years had to resort to getting immigrants (that won't happen for China too soon).
No. I lived in China for five years, and now (luckily) live in Taiwan. The reason why they don't accept suitable immigration rates are twofold:
1. Ethno-nationalism
2. Blatant Ethno-nationalism in education system (since primary text books)
3. Extreme Ethno-nationalism in state-run media that would make Fox News blush.
4. Keeping the majority older, conservative population happy with keeping evil 洋鬼子（foreign devils）out of sight and out of mind.
No, the answer is chinese people are xenophobic
Add on the fact that Asia as a whole is not very welcoming to immigrants and China does belong in the standout group.
Despite the changing social landscape, it's still pales in comparison to the Americas number of immigration per year. This is a problem even Europeans face as seen by how France and Germany basically threw a hissy fit at the incoming Muslims in the 2010s.
Nah, the real reasons are racism and xenophobia. Many countries in East Asia (and Eastern Europe) simply reject immigration because they are determined to remain ethnically homogeneous.
China doesn't care (and actually encourages) immigration of ethnic Han people from their diaspora, even if they don't speak the language or have any real cultural ties to China)
Asia knows multiculturalism doesn’t work. “America is full of racists and China is full of Chinese” Dave Chapelle. Yugoslavia didn’t work to well with multiculturalism either. Mass immigration is destroying many western countries and look at the further political right most of Europe is starting to lean in to.
Great video!
Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the taxation put on individual workers quite low in China, with income tax standing for 5% of the government's annual income. The ccp (from what I've read,) is quite reluctant to inforce individual taxation due to the cost of implementing it and the additional cost of managing such a system.) I believe the majority of government income derives from the taxation of major businesses. In that case, you could argue that the lack of workers mostly will have an effect on the larger firms situated in china and through them, the chinese economy. The difference is small but ultimately important. As long as the major companies can continue business through foreign workers or other means, the chinese economy or governmental income will not be hit as hard as for example other european countries in relation to a lack of workers. I'm not an expert by any means, but it's just a thought.
And that's just the decline that they ADMITTED. Chinese numbers are notoriously doctored.
CCP moment. I wonder what the real chinese GDP is…
06:11 "fewer workers -> higher wages"
too bad old people cannot fully benefit from that
ultimately if there are more old people that cannot be a plus. It still means that fraction of people who are not fully capable to produce everything needed for their lives grows.
Sad.
fewer than...
CCP: "Well, well, well, if it isn't the consequences of my own actions."
can we blame CCP for the the demographic collapse in Japan and South Korea?
@Emile Chen Of course not, the demographic collapse of those countries are an effect of a lack of women's willingness to have children (the only consistent factor in population growth models). Government's have an effect on that, but women control the future of a country.
It’s likely been going on for some years
Almost like the 1 child policy was effective
I wonder if there was such a huge gap between those incharge and those who actually do that the CCP actually believed its own lies and acted accordingly
One Child Policy was a ChenYun policy.
The guy is nuts, I also blame Jiang and Hu for not doing anything about it.
With chinese population already declining and Indian Fertility rate dropping below 2,1 I doubt we are ever going to hit 10 billion like UN projects
is that really so bad tho? hahah why do we need 10 billion people for
@@randomguy2108 the more the merrier hahaha 😂
There is Africa that can see the population explosion in the comming decades
@@Abhilash-. Africa is industrializing, and following the same population curve in its urban, well-educated middle class as everyone else.
@@mikicerise6250 yes and at first that will boost their population and then with time they will also stabilize. Everywhere industrialization brings population growth it happened even in Europe.
A aging/declining population does not have to be a crises. The problem is that we have built our systems around continued growth and freak out if we don't grow. Based on China's demographic trend they have maybe a 15-20 year bubble period and then it would stabilize at a lower population level. Lower population would be less of a strain on their natural resources. (same applies to U.S. but we have chosen immigration to make sure we continue growth instead)
Nope it's a big problem. So many houses will be abandonded if literally after manye years of a decline. A city might even half vacant, would literally look dead. Reseources is not an issue, but it's they way we produce much of it today. We know of better way to do it, but just isn't used much yet.
@@tobbakken2911 We can build buildings and we are just as capable of tearing them down. Move people if they want into a closer in area. If they don't then tear down the empty buildings around them and give them to choice to buy the land cheap. If they don't want it then plant native forest/grasslands on the area to give the soil a chance to recover.
@@paulconner4614 with an aging population and having to take care of the old, there would be lack of money.
Interesting times!
There are 8B ppl. We dont need high birth rates, rather than that every country should focus on increasing life expectancies and longer working lives. Automation is also going to remove a lot of jobs from the market.
Africa
Well the one child policy was a major factor in China’s demographic crisis their is another factor and that is China’s rapid urbanization and industrialization done by the CCP after the China civil war which moved millions of people out of rural countryside and into the cities which had two long term effects one it turn China into the economy powerhouse it is today and two it caused their birth rate to decline because living in the city encourages people to have less kids and one child policy only made that worse remember 2 full generations worth of children weren’t born which doesn’t help that fact the China is deal with a aging population with no young people to replace them
Japan and South Korea are not communist, why do they have the same problem?
Welcome to Earth youngster with global warming, wars, famine, a cost of living which is insane and a world that cannot get along. Lets be honest who would want kids in this climate?
They shrank from 800 mill 1978 to 600 mill now which was the meaning. Cruise missils destroying dams would reduce with hundreds of millions more.
Wonderful. The less the better❤
Let's hope really, really bad!
1:44 from this point on you're completely off. Most evidence currently suggests that fertility rate decline would have dropped the same degree without the One Child Policy. The OCP was not the biggest cause, as earlier policies like the Later, Longer, Fewer policy started over a decade before the OCP had already started crushing China's fertility rate. The scholars measuring demographic rates in China currently have no consensus, but most of them accept that China's fertility rate decline would have fallen like this anyway. Like Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, and Japan's all did. The OCP is not the root of the problem. It's just one contributing factor.
Source: I'm a demographer and just did a research paper/ lit review on the OCP and its impact on Chinese demography. While it had no evidence of correlation between the decline in birth rates, the OCP did contribute to one big problem. That is the gender imbalance. The OCP encouraged more sex-selective abortions, thus why there were 4 decades of killing baby girls (since most rural areas didn't have the great healthcare to kill them pre-birth). Massive underreporting, as well as cultural tendencies that already favored men before the OCP, all added to this problem. So if you want to say that the Chinese demographic problem has its roots in the OCP, you shouldn't reduce the complex issue by claiming that it's what caused birth rate decline when that's just not true. It's okay not to have a complex understanding, but it's not okay to mis-inform people by claiming a reality that isn't true. The studies I looked at showed that the researchers could get no significant results from regression analyses to show that the OCP had an impact on fertility rates.
-Anyway! Just felt the need to correct you if you're going to claim something untrue and present it as fact.
Edit: And now that I finish the video I have to dislike it because you didn't even bring up the gender imbalance, and that is the definitive problem with Chinese demography and what makes their demographic problem so much worse than the other East Asian nations around them. Those countries also have problems attracting immigrants (or just doesn't like accepting them). Those countries also have aging populations and shrinking workforces, stagnating economies, etc. But China has the biggest problem and the worst risk of a rapid decline because there are 30 million plus more men than women in the country. This gender disparity is what makes the Chinese demographic issue complex and so important, and it's why the OCP is a clear example of how government birth-control measures can be catastrophic. You ignored the actual problems of Chinese demography and pretty much just recycled a video format for Japanese population decline but for China. They have very different demographic situations. Many of the same issues, yes, but very different contexts. Actually frustrating to see a topic I'm very invested in get reduced so poorly to the point that you ignored the main issues and pretty much just got the whole idea of it wrong. Titling your video: How Bad is China's Demographic Crisis, then leaving out the thing that makes their crisis so much worse than everyone else's is just about the silliest thing you could do as a news channel, and it's disappointing to see.
Even India's fertility rate has hit replacement and it is far poorer than China.
I think the video is intended to inform much less knowledgable people than you. A lot of people aren't even familiar with Japan's problems, so hearing what they are and that they haunt China as well is informative. I assume they ommited the gender imbalance due to time constraints.
Also, obviously I know the issue less, but I assume the forceful enforcement of the one child policy as well as the social norms it [and related programs] instilled do have an effect. The video didn't claim the "Later, Longer, Fewer" policy didn't affect the fertility rate, I think they simply use the OCP as a catch-all term for the anti-natalist policies in order to simplify. Wouldn't you say that without these anti-natalist policies the birth rate today would be much higher?
6:06 not really its economy but more it's people
Why did they not take the pension money, invest it and pay it back out? Also invest some taxes into a sovereign wealth fund so that can be used later?
I think Americans don’t really realize the importance of this because of immigration
Something like china practically needs people to keep it going
Do you realize even if China loses 1 billion people it will still have more people than USA. and it will still have 20 times the population of Australia or Canada all of which are similar in size to China.
@@alexanderomucheyi1857 some predictions have China at half today's population by 2100.
@@someguy-eh9mg Lol you mean 2050, you're looking at old numbers. In 2100 it's very likely China will only have 300 million people or so. 1.0 kids per family means your population gets cut in half every 25-30 years.
@@someguy-eh9mg Predicting all the way to 2100 is foolish. We can't even predict 10 years into the future, let alone 80 :)
Love the Eggplant in decline 😂😂😂
The eggplant is used by africans, it's naïve, dummmmmmmb and even offensive to use is with the chinese
That's why centralized leadership without checks and balances.
Didn't you do a video last year about the crisis from the world population reaching 8 billion?...
No one mentioned that lowered birth rates also signify a rapidly developing country. More education, equal rights for women, etc...
Because china has none of those things.Trapping people in towers isn't "Developing".
Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Argentina are three developed countries with very high birth rates and growing populations so it doesn't have to be either or.
Lowered birth rates track with urbanization, but china has not broken out of middle income status. Production is bein gmoved out of China, so how exactly are companies going to afford higher wages there. Saying higher wages will help with domestic consumption is putting the cart before the horse. They needed to boost domestic consumption 15 years ago.
But not in the case of china, it has the demographics of an advanced devolved nation without the GDP per capita
That's not a good thing bruh
Lol the thumbnail
The problem is 1.3 billion people getting old and nobody of working age to take their place.
Their next bio attack better have a higher casualty rate.
Artificial Intellegence: Allow us to introduce ourselves
alternatively to the taxation model described in the video, you can tax the rich instead of the workers
Taxing the rich's income is not enough, there's a reason why we tax everyone's income except the poorest because public services and infrastructure as well the general government institutions requires alot of money. Unless you're talking about creating networth tax or raising stock tax , in which case you haven't seen what kinds of problem that will create
And they book a private jet and leave the country. Economics doesn't work as you imagine.
@@dixonhill1108 Yeah, taxes are for the working class, these fucks ain't going nowhere.
Also Chinese like korean and japanese is very hard to learn for lot of people, and on the other hand not a lot of people there (China) understand English, so immigration (from countries out of south east asia) is not going to replace the aging work force any time soon
That and the Chinese government is very anti-immigration.
US and Europe replace thier white population by Latinos, Muslims and Africans is not a better solution yet,
unlike South Korea and Japan with limited potential, China will find external solution, such as colonizing the Space, developing new energy and other strategic techs, gettingmore resources to boom birthd rate again,
as the equal of Roman empire, China has survive so mam crisis,but keep rise again and gaina after each fall,
i don't think a demographic cris c end definitely China's future, to be fair, today, whcih country is not in crisis?
It is also a blessing that Japan Korea and China are far from the hordes of the Middle eastern & African migrants. Unfortunately not so much for Europe.
@@user-pn3im5sm7k Homie? You racist? Go get reeducated.
Does come give some sort of pension to their elderly? Could you explain that before using the term "pensioners"? For instance, you couldn't use that term for American elderly.
You should talk to Peter Ziehan.
This is a really well-informed video. It's true that there will be consequences to population decline, but instead of freaking out about it and assuming the only way forward is encouraging people to have more children, there are ways to mitigate the problems, e.g. investing more in a welfare state for the elderly, or immigration (which China has almost none of), while staving off the negative effects of runaway population growth (e.g. climate change, biodiversity loss, the increasing strain it puts on nearly every governmental and industrial system, etc.)
With increased automation and AI less workers are required. Really need to view population from a lens that is not perpetual growth. May be use raworth's 'doughnut' economic model ? As observed above humans need to think about ecological sustainability
@@sylviaramsay9180 If the percentage of non working people remained the same, then it wouldn't be a problem at all but the bigger issue than declining is the ageing population. Old people don't work nor consume much at all.9
The biggest issue is that the older generation (aka boomers) was too large worldwide. This has forced the population to skyrocket to an unsustainable level. Now the current generation are more limited in terms of resources (due to the increase of care resources needed by the older generation who has largely stopped being economically productive) are having less children as a consequence. It is an issue effecting many nations with Japan being in a particularly difficult situation as a result. There is no easy solution, quite simply we all just have to bare with it and do the best we can until the excess population levels decline and the population in general normalises. Sorry if I sound harsh, it's just the reality of things that the world has too large a human population for it to support in a realistic long term sense.
Lucky them. I wish my country (Australia) was shrinking in population.
the Native Americans and Aboriginals have already a demographic shrinking after the arrival of Anglo-Saxons,
@@Emilechen
In the context of the video:
No they didn't, the population of their country, absolutely skyrocketed after invasion. Their own numbers declined (mainly disease).
Are you arguing that infinite population growth is a good or sustainable thing? No right?
Hopefully it will solve problems of having too many ppl.
The figures are so much worse than it appears. China has a severe gender imbalance (as does India), there will be 15+ million more men than woman in the next 15 to 20 years. Added to this is the fact that the figures are massaged. Directives are sent from central government to all the regions to increase the number of children being born. It's in the interest of the regions to lie. The regional bureaucrats will not get promoted if they fail to hit the targets. Also, they get more money from central government for their schools and hospitals.
The man ethnic group in China are the Han which make up about 92% of the population. The non-ethnic Chinese were allowed to have as many children as they wished. Taking this into account I suggest that the birthrate is below 1 and possibly substantially below 1.
Think of how much 15 million is as a percentage of 1.4 billion.
@@elmohead We are talking about child bearing age.
Perfect thumbnail 👌
China should import Pakistani people 😂
In Germany a big part of the population is about 40ish years old. This will lead to big problems once those people retire and is a big political topic here so I'm not surprised that this is going on in other places of the world as well
Which is better for you, to watch you on here or nebula?
The problem is a lot heftier and faster than you think. Yes demographic problems are usually slow, in China though, because of the 1-child policy, the demographic piramid is a lot more tilted.
We are looking about 1% less working population every year for the next 20 years. This means, -1% gdp just from this factor.
Alone, this wouldn't be a huge problem, but coupled that China is also transitioning into a developed country, the "easy economic fruits" are already picked. Therefore it will not be a 8%-1%, but rather a 3%-1%. Making it much more relevant.
Additionally, like TLDR said, it does not only mean less working people, thus income. But also more people requiring money, thus more social payments.
This again, adds a huge amount of money outflow. All the while, the annual additional debt China builts is 3-4%.
China really NEEDS to grow, to keep the debt on a acceptable level. But they CAN'T, because of the demographics and the "economic catchup" mechanics.
And making the local economy stronger, doesn't really help with the debt problem.
All this together means one thing: China already missed it's chance to become THE global superpower.
but does it really matter if it is population decline in the parts of china where GDP per capita is low and it is still population growth where GDP per capita is high. 27% of the population in china still work in agriculture. They only contribute to 8% of GDP.
@@steffengustavsen9678
Actually, no.
From 2000 to 2020 25% of Chinese population shifted from agriculture to the secondary/tertiary sectors.
So, best case for gdp would be that another 25% shift away from agriculture. But even this just theoretical "best case" would just mean that the situation is not getting worse than the 2000-2020 phase.
Considering that they most likely will see a smaller shift than in the previous years, it is much more likely, that China will receive another hit.
I am not saying the GDP is about to shrink. Just that the growth is slowing down enormously.
At the moment:
Working population -2% gdp growth (in comparison to 2000-2020 period of +7% pa.)
Sector shift: - 1-0% gdp growth etc
@@aurelspecker6740china is already agriculturally dependent on the rest of the world, shifting 25% of people away from agriculture is not only not possible because there aren’t that many people (and moving 350 million people isn’t something you can do overnight) but also basically giving all of the cards to the rest of the world, which for the most part hates china
@@smallmalaysianboy8025 The efficiency in agriculture has very little to do with people employed in agriculture. Still, many farms in China are highly manual labor. Just look at other countries like the US. Only 10% are employed into agriculture.
Even though, the US is one of the biggest food EXPORTER, so the % should be overproportional.
So yeah, there is still potential.
Nevertheless, I do agree. My calculation was a "absolute maximum" that China could get out of switching from primary economic sector to 2./3. And even that is not making up for the 1% of less working age population per year, even at this unlikely theoretical maximum.
@@aurelspecker6740 Interesting. Despite China's huge demographic issues, their workforce is becoming increasingly educated and the quality of labour is dramatically increasing. This is a "talent dividend".
China hasn't "peaked", their better educated workforce will mitigate the effects of that 1% decline you correctly identified.
However, considering China had 9 million babies born in 2022, the talent dividend will fade after 10 or 15 years. This gives them a short window to dramatically reform and focus much more on pro-natal policies whilst wages and skills keep the economy going.
I don't disagree with you, but the narrative of "China is in decline because it's workforce is shrinking" is not correct, at least not for now.
One thing people seem to forget is that automation and AI will improve the productivity per individual by the largest margin since the industrialization in Europe. If current 2.2+ children being born, it would lead to mass unemployment in the future. While we can't bank the entire economy on the hopes automation and AI will be as revolutionary as some analysts claim. It's clear it will have a great impact on the number of jobs available. As such, low birth figures aren't necessarily bad, unless you're a imperialistic country hoping to win WW3.
Ok, and if AI doesn't?
Exactly!! Refreshing to see common sense in this topic.
I guess Russia is doomed, then 😅
Good riddance
@@JCdental It's already done. Automated combines and factories exist now, it doesn't have to be sentient as long as it produces the same product. There are still people operating them, but it's 1/100th of the number previously required and soon it will be 1/1000th. Smaller populations will also result in less consumer demand and that will reduce jobs further as the human employees are cut in favor of more cost effective solutions. I think the nature of work will have to change, as the required population for a civilization to function dips below 20% or less. It might be that the unemployment threshold value is closer to 50% before it blows itself up with how it's set up.
The self service checkout machine in the supermarket doesn't pay tax. It doesn't go to restaurants. It doesn't buy groceries. It doesn't spend money on businesses that create jobs.
They're running out of eggplants???
funny how Joe Rogan has Peter Zeihan on his podcast and how everyone is talking about China demographic problem lol!
China still has hundreds of millions of very poor citizens that haven't connected to the modern economy yet. Most of the amazing development of recent decades has been in the far east, and western China has been slower to develop.
Also about immigration, there has been a huge amount of migration inside the country, so eternal immigration to the US probably isn't a good analogy. A better comparison might be the US to the east coast of China.
while you're not wrong, its definitely not 'hundreds of millions' as over 90% of the population lives on the east coast alone
@@bruhngl 90% live in the eastern third of the country. But China is a diverse place, and even workers coming in from a few hundred kilometers to the West are exotic. Also I think 300m live on less than $2 a day.
Isn't that a good thing for how we don't want a higher population knowing how much harm humanity does to ecosystems?
Yes but everything China does it's bad.
Only cucknada does not want populations
The problem is about economic support. Less children means less people who will work win the future and less taxes the government can get from them to pay for social services and pensions for the elderly. This is especially problematic in China because they have so many people
Unless you enjoy having the economy collapse and its effect spread all around the area of collapse...
@@Batucadax because the biggest economic in Asia gonna collapse and demographic got fucked up?
Not the Eggplant!!
Then what? The banana?!
We are getting a lot closer to the population level out. When survival is better guaranteed the birthrate decreases. Less provider clans. Less shared toothbrushes. More pillow talk. More protection.
I'm pretty sure the biggest factor is considered to be women getting educated. Educated women just want less kids
No big problem Even if they drop to 1 billion still more than enough and don't forget robots workforce in the future so np at all
1 billion is still a big population but when half of this billion are pensioners it suddenly doesn't look that good.
@@ermin2248 your argument is shallow
Mid age in china ( and America ) is 38 .
Percentage of chinese work in jobs are 60% and even those 60% not all of them have pensions
And as i said economies in the near future will bloom with AI and robot workforce
Let’s hope so. Capitalism has me pessimistic about A.I tho
@@thisusernameisalreadytaken8041 Except those stats are actually lies. It's very likely less than 50% of the population is working. The median age in China is closer to 50. They are way way way older than most people ever thought.
@@hydromic2518 Capitalism has me pessimistic about everything
Correction: Fewer workers means higher profits, not higher wages. Even in China.
Look at this guy who doesn't understand supply and demand
Robots are replacing people.
A seamless transition into a scaremongering Nord VPN sales pitch, tone it down maybe.
The question isn't how bad is it, the question is how bad is it for everyone else. This places a lot of pressure on Xi to do whatever military action he wants to do sooner.
The over proportions of men in China gotta be put to do something right... Nothing like a war to fix demographics.
Well, one child policy was introduced in 1980 and it means that the biggest amount of Chinese people are aged around 45 years old. Chinese are retiring at 50/55 for women (depending on type of job) and 60 for men. It means that China will grow for around 10 more years and after that, their economy will collapse, and suprisingly, that's no exagerration.
China stopped growing in 2014. It's very likely their population peaked in the early 2000s. It's very likely that the average Chinese person is in their 50s potentially even their late 50s.
@@dixonhill1108 Your typing is very good for someone who is mentally impaired 🤫🤫
@@dixonhill1108 Yeah, i wouldn't be surprised if that's true. China, as every totalitarian state is showing false statistical data to the rest of the world if that data is showing something bad. This decade may be main decade of chaos and changes of this century.
finally!!! China needs fewer people!!!
China needs to accept immigrants from Myanmar, Burmese is a related language to Chinese and people from there follow Buddhism like many Chinese, so they have quite a lot of similarities
Immigration is usually not a great solution to population shrinkage anyways, since after a while their births just match the people already there. Plus, in nation states like France or Germany cases of immigrants not feeling at home and getting violent aren’t rare. And China’s basically a han-nation state so it could certainly be an issue as well
in the past, the Hans have absorbed and annxed so many 胡/Hu peoplr of he North ad 越/Yue people in the South, transform them inti Han Chinese,
That assumes the immigrants are educated and they rarely are. A 22 year old with an education will pay taxes even if they have few kids. They have no kids and they pay almost no taxes so it's far worst than that.
There literally is not a country in the world to draw enough immigrants in China’s vicinity to fix it, the solution has to come from within the society. Unless China and India make up over a frankly stupid and insignificant border which probably has like 10 million people at most, like using a Mongolia style buffer state, there’s no collection of friendly countries in the world which could supply hundreds of millions of immigrants. Maybe Africa in the future, but Africa is pretty far away.
@@Emilechen Yea but that was a different time. Now you have the internet where you can stay in touch with your home culture
The 'after a while births match the local population' isn't really much of a negative, since the whole point of the solution is to slow down population shrinkage. At least by a few decades, turning a population collapse into a decline.
Blame it on the tofu
FEWER!!!!
All the world should enter into a one child policy. We will have better productovity, better wages and less enviromental pressures
But a worse economy
One or two is better
Whilst China's population decline is very bad, the problem is the lack of productivity growth in China.
The US's biggest strength isn't strong demographics, it's strong worker productivity.
If China's workforce shrinks, but labour productivity does not increase, China's economy will collapse within 5 years.
If productivity actually increases per worker, China's economy will manage the decline in population.
you are mistaken as china is far more productive in primary and secondary sectors. the us economy relies more on tertiary and quaternary which is why its workers generally generate more value, the real issue is a lack of diversity in the chinese economy, although this has definitely been improving over recent years as the ccp is very aware of the issue.
when we compare thr high-speed railway or 5G equipments, or other industrial fields, we really don't see how US be more productive than China,
Honest question: will unchecked COVID which disproportionately targets the oldest, will this help or hurt?
Negligible
It would help but covid was not lethal in a statistically significant way, they will have to design a better one next time 😅
Whether or not China can do something about its demographic crisis has one thing, but whether or not China is going to do something about it is another.
Longer lifespans for seniors have been a disaster, in any nation. They hardly contribute anything and I doubt young workers like the idea of supporting the retirement of older citizens who vote against the young people's interests anyway. Why should I have to support people who keep voting against my generations best interests? I know it sounds cruel but they quickly become a burden on society. So many people living longer lives really isn't a good thing in the long run, that just means more people taking up resources while not contributing anything in return.
No one votes in china
@@kyzantia8884 Wasn’t meant to be just about China, this is something we’re seeing play out in industrialized democracies too
They already contributed and I guess you'll be willing to checkout early in order to not burden your heirs right?
@@greg2502 Like I'll be having kids. The world will be uninhabitable for humans by the end of the century at the current rate, and even then not like I could afford to have children anyway.
as if there were not enough humans on this planet :)
In 1900 there were about 1,5 billion people on the planet.
I'm not sure if Earth was UNDERpopulated at that point. So I don't really see the problem with the population going down to that level.
However, we should probably try to make sure it doesn't go under 1 billion or so.
well its like 1961 and its expected wtf happens there like america
The problem isn't the one child policy. Lots of evidence shows folks didn't really honor that when it was enforced. The problem is the rising costs of living and migration from rural to cities.
On a far, more kids means more help on the farm. In the city, kids are a burden which drive up the cost of living. This is a phenomenon observed all throughout the world which implies the one child policy explanation accepted by many "experts" doesn't hold up. I'm shocked they haven't connected the dots yet. I'm not an expert, but even I can see the obvious.
Re: immigration - Chinese Hans, and specifically the CCP are horribly xenophobic, much worse than the Japanese. It's kind of understandable due to the multiple invasions into China throughout history, but it still isn't a good look and unlike the Japanese - that are doing much better, thank you - they have no intention of shaking that habit.
source: trust me bro
Japan's immigration policy is even worse lol.
there are literally millions of foreigners living in china
@@bruhngl nah bro, literally most of the foreigners lefts after or during zero covid which ended really really badly for the CCps face
No, they're not. Han Chauvinism is banned in China and they promote ethnic minorities, unlike the West. The one-child policy was mostly placed on the Han population, not the ethnic minorities. Japan treats their ethnic minorities way worse, i.e. Okinawans and they're also insanely racist against Koreans, and Chinese.
One benefit China has with its aging population vs the US is that older Chinese folks grew up with lower living standards, so expect fewer resources given to them per capita. Meanwhile older Americans grew up with *higher* living standards than younger Americans, so even if the ratio of workers to seniors is better the resource demands per worker might well be higher.
Ehm, this isn't a problem at all because the US also has more ressources available for retirees
@@Alex-vx5zs The US, Canada, EU, etc are all deeply concerned about the cost of baby boomers retiring? Like… that’s been in the news a ton? (Well, maybe less of an issue for the US and UK now with their strategy of ‘let covid kill off the elderly’, but it’s still something of an issue.)
The west survived loosing its population throughout ww2 and other countries with relatively advanced economies did the same. I am sure that China can reorient itself. The thing that worries me is that CCP starts to look a lot like United Russia, and thats not good.
It should be corrected that the one child policy was introduced and funded by the Americans and British as they were worried about the size of the future Chinese military. The Chinese government implemented it because of the stated concerns. A similar scheme was also introduced and funded to India by the Americans and British for the same reason.
If that was the case China never would have agreed to it. China was important enough in the cold war that they easily could've gotten away with saying "we're not actually going to stop people having kids", or they could've made up with the USSR. Plus China and India both have an order of magnitude more people than anyone else; having slightly less people is not going to destroy their military; especially with legal conscription. Also, there is debate around how much the OCP actually caused this problem, as opposed to other factors like urbanization and cost of children. Especially considering the US and UK also have this problem, because immigrants aren't exactly the most patriotic group.
tl;dr this is a conspiracy theory
@@user-cx9nc4pj8w one of the things we have learnt from this is that the best way to reduce populations is to improve health care and education of women and the worst thing to do is to try and force population reduction through these schemes.
In responce to your first question/point, when billions of dollars are up for grabs, poorer countries like China and India, at that time, would have plenty of people in power that would take the money for their gain.
Unfortunately our attempts to prevent the economic and military strengthening of those countries failed and we should be glad that India and China have fallen out with each other otherwise i think the rest of the world would be in trouble.
Automation and Immigration are two key solutions here. Also, the housing market needs to be deflated, and the Welfare State leveled up imo
In all Developed Countries it shouldnt be this hard to start a family. And it shouldnt be a crisis that our elderly are retiring from work 🤔 We have the means to still prosper
China won't accept large numbers of immigrants. They're trying to make China purely Han Chinese. They don't want people that might have different ideas and cultures in large numbers.
Automation won't come fast enough to solve this problem. Sure, it'll come eventually. But the collapse will happen first.
Automation isnt just some a
catch all, if a job involves any type of labour that is not done through a computer than it would take a long time and be very expensive to automate. As most jobs in china come under this description, automation wont help much. You also already have to be developed an wealthy to even invest in automation.
Its India's time now to replace China.
India has got everything that China has, from a large work force to a politically stable government that has the people's mandate unlike China's communist rule. Infrstructure has improved drastically in the last few years. Large investors are already investing huge into India's economy and its only gonna benefit the whole world to be India's friend and move on from China's hegemony.
Mmm but can you give us a 100% guarantee that ethnic tensions and regionalism won't destroy the republic
@@crocodileguy4319 Ethnic tensions are present everywhere In this world. The issue of black vs white in US, Spanish/Mexican immigrants vs the English-speaking White Americans, all these didn't cause any hindrance in the economic progress of the US. The Europe was long divided since ages due to ethnicity. The world wars happened mostly due to ethnic tensions primarily. Did the world war stop Europe to again stand on their feet?
Likewise, India too on the other hand stands on a strong foundational belief of nationalism over any ethnicity for that matter. All Indians are united for the sake of the nation, no matter whatever their caste, creed or religion is. India has this unique nature of 'Unity in Diversity'. And that is very much vivid into the multi-cultural framework on which the nation is built upon.
lol
@@kunalghosh8852 "politically stable" and united, last year your red fort was just stormed by farmers and the protest lasted a year. feed your people first before using the money to develop other things lol
@@kunalghosh8852 yeah, but those other countries don't have a paramilitary force akin to the SA brownshirts that beat up and lynch their enemies
All this and we hit Earth's population landmark at 8 billion.
Africa caried the team
But it was mao not deng zhao ping
Most Racist Countries in the World (UN World Population Review 2022)*:
1.India
2.Lebanon
3.Bahrain
4.Libya
5.Egypt
6.Philippines
7.Kuwait
8.Palestine
9.South Africa
10.South Korea
*Full survey results below
India ranks as the most racist of the countries included in the study. Located in southern Asia, India is the second-most-populous country on Earth, with roughly 1.3 billion people. According to the surveys, the country's residents display considerable intolerance for people with darker skin, whether they are of foreign descent (particularly African) or simply darker-skinned Indians. India has little immigration and few international residents. As a result, most of its people are of Indian descent themselves. This detail is considered to be a major contributing factor to racism in India. When one is unaccustomed to seeing or interacting with people of different races, it is often more difficult to integrate with someone of a different nationality or ethnicity. This notion is borne out in the survey results. Approximately 43.6% of all Indians who took the survey said that they would not be comfortable with neighbors who were of a different culture, ethnicity, or race. 64.3% of Indian participants also reported that they were either discriminated against or had witnessed discrimination unfold in their home country.
If the UN cared about Xinjiang and how china treats ulligur muslims they would give India a challenge for the top rank. What can we do not everyone can but the UN like china. We all know how WHO supported china even when all the evidence pointed against them.