⭐️ If you have Nebula, go watch this there for the full, extended version. If you don't, why not? It's only $15/year and gives you extra- long versions of these videos: curiositystream.com/polymatter Also, Part 2 of this series is here: th-cam.com/video/EgVXRtq5EIg/w-d-xo.html
Heyyy despite my profile picture I am not chinese, just a great sino phile and I think one thing you didn't mention in the video is the fact that in china seniors work literally until their deaths and are able to do so because they have much better diets and are far more active and healthy then their western counterparts, however I know this only slightly delays the problems you have touched upon in the video.
I learned this whole concept from a game called Banished. I wasn't producing enough food or clothing so I didn't add more houses for people to have more babies. Suddenly almost everyone was too old to have babies. I build some houses and had a few babies, but my population plummeted over the next 20 years. From a town of 600 to 200 within a few years. Now every other house was abandoned, outposts unmanned, not enough firewood to trade for livestock, fields going unharvested. It was pretty bad and I learned a valuable lesson about linear population growth instead of exponential.
Here is how things look in the world. To have a stable population the birth rate needs to be 2.0 and that is not counting disease or natural disasters. Every western country right now has a birth rate below two. Hungary has realized this and is actively trying to build their marketplace to encourage an increase in birth rate. Germany for the last 40 years has had a birth rate of about 1.3 and its average age is about 45 years old. Pakistan has a birth rate of 3.5 and an average age of 21 years of age. Western populations have only been growing through immigration and not the birth rate.
Banished just received a much needed update you can now open up the southern border & allow mexicans to bolster the ranks of your populace plus they will work for cheap! gotta love unfettered immigration
its true. my first thought was "they could just have more children" then i thought about me and my wife, living with both my parents and her parents on a meager salary. would i want more than 1 kid? would i want any? especially if both of us only grew up as only children? its a death spiral.
Hmm. Hadn't thought about that. Why would the average single child grow up thinking that they should have many children? Chinese individuals were most likely never even exposed to any such households growing up... it would not even factor into your thinking as a plausible scenario.
My wife and I are on good salaries and we don't want children either. So if you got people who want children but can't afford it and those who can afford but don't want them (traitors! *FOR THE MOTHERLAND! *) it kinda leaves nations in a bit of bind. Not just China most western nations are also going through population stagnation through low birth rate.
@@jmgonzalez4 Excuse me? Like you literally going to throw this out as an acceptable fact? China has boomer generations as well. I have like more than 8 uncles and aunts, more than I can care to count. Mao made them breed like rabbits. The only reason why we don't have huge families today is a) child policy b) economic limitations.
Bingo, country gets richer, get raised better, get smarter earlier, then you get kids later, cause you were smart enough to realize what a drag having them is (in many ways). Heck I still think of it the same way I think of pets, if I'm at an office a third of the day, sleeping another third, and have to divide the last third between myself, my family, and getting from place to place, what time is left for a pet, let alone a kid. Maybe if working from home becomes the standard, and we knock off these stupid "8" hour work days, but fuck by the time that happens I'll be too old to care.
The replacement rates in all European countries, except maybe 1 or 2, are below 2.0. Sadly, in Eastern European countries, they're often as low as 1.2 or 1.1 thanks to the toxic influence of the former Soviet Union.
@@zjg3913 Take ur hate speech elsewhere, bigot. Families don't need to be as large because child mortality is decreasing, birth control methods are widespread and people rather focus on their own lives rather than spend their entire adulthood taking care of infants. You are just angry because no woman would want to carry your child.
@Smunstu Stinkymonster Well, it is kinda true, just like South Korea and Japan, our birth rate is declining fast. I think this is partly due to the culture and and partly due to the society. However, luckly, we have enough people, and who knows, maybe by 2050s we have robots to help us. BTW EU, US even India all have declining brith rate. This is a world problem, if we want to fix this, we should fight for The Fourth Industrial Revolution.
And Greek men don't see the light at the end of the tunnel therefore no dating and starting families? Hard to believe Singaporean and Thai men are reaching the same conclusion despite being better off financially. They just don't see good future ahead.
I am not entirely sure what culture will develop amongst 34 million single men. But I feel very safe in theorizing a keen appreciation for quality hand lotions as a shared attribute.
@@knoahbody69 they still are. Lol social security doesn't grow faster than inflation, so it's as worthless as having thrown money into a safe. The only way social security can work is from contributions from the younger workforce. So, yeah. Children and grandchildren are still social security. 😂 Now, if we had let that insane amount of money become invested... There wouldn't be any issue with it running out. It's just that congress can't simply dip into it when they want to fund some pork if it's invested.
Babies are the drivers of the whole economy. Husbands and Wives raise their children together, working, buying things, feeding kids, paying mortgage, etc. Run out of babies and your Nation goes extinct. The Most Valuable thing you can do, is fall in Love. Get Married, Have lots of kids. Babies DRIVE Demand, as they are, by definition - the largest consumers. New clothes as they grow, new furnature, new cars and homes, lots of food... so the ideal equation is to have 6 to 12 babies. USA cheap food helps turn surplus calories into human beings. A pallet load of potatoes has value, but convert that pallet load of potatoes into a dozen human beings and you have increased productivity and added value to profits. $$$
@@jr-wv4qw nowadays you do not need to import population any more. More and more robots will replace human beings. Robots are still way way cheaper than human beings, any human beings after all. Robots will never complain about salary and working environment .
I was in Germany in the 1980’s when I saw on my morning commute, trains carrying very large industrial machinery, later that month I saw a program about these very machines. They were heavy industrial machines from the German steel industry. They were being shipped to China. These were the machines that built Germany’s post war economy and were about to build Chinas new economy. I was seeing history in the making. Today China has been remarkably successful with their second hand industrial revolution.
@Normie meme your logic is flawed in so many ways I can't even begin LOL. You should think about why America moved the industries over. What environments supported that. Same in India, and rest of 2nd world and 3rd world countries. Also everyone "steals" or feel "inspired" on that technology spectrum. If you invented a gasoline engined car, does that mean everyone else who makes a gasoline engined car stole your technology? Plagiarism is not chinese nor even technology exclusive. It's just how the world works. Ancient cultures like China, Egypt, Greek etc have invented many things that western nations claimed they invented after copying. This is like the same thing...it's double standard to say it's okay one way but not the other, not to mention it's norm to do so
@Normie meme Excusez-moi, China has been the top economy in the world for hundreds of years and maintained trading surplus for a long time. It’s BIGGEST historic fault is didn’t invest her gaining into colonization as Western countries did. If wasn’t invaded and impoverished by the Western counties, and the global monetary system didn’t switch from silver to gold China was supposed to have resources and sovereignty to maintain its development. Your memory is just to short to remember a history long enough to tell the whole story.
USA has been sending factories to China for decade. They make the American workers train their Chinese replacements before they fire them and ship the whole factory to China. One of the things the Chinese bought when Nixon opened up trade with them was 3 707 Boeing jetliners. 2-3 years later they had built their own jet that looked EXACTLY like a 707, but it weighed twice as much.
As a little money eating machine which is starting to offer its first years of value to society i just wanna say: Those 25-ish years were the best time haha
Is it though? The baby boomers should have killed America, if that was the case. A that money used with no capital. You had more baby's than every other generation combined, yet it was the most explosive economic time in US history. And yet, when those baby's turned 45, they made things worse for their little money eaters.
@@patrickasplund The situation the US found itself in following WW2 was pretty unique: Europe in ruins and in debt, Japan bombed and occupied, most of Asia under authoritarian communism while the US mainland was almost untouched by war and had built a massive manufacturing industry.
As productivity requires less physical labor, why is it so hard to believe seniors can't contribute value to the economy? Retirement is a luxury. And let's not forget that it is the money of those older generations' retirement funds that invest in the start ups and continuing growth companies. And when they pass on, that money gets left behind. Folks, there's cause for optimism yet.
I am so happy you have studied the whole of the Chinese policy. Most on here relied on the CIA, Voice of America and CNN and other media for their information. Perhaps you are NOT brainwashed! (Sarcasm doesn't work o stupid people you know!)
@@onlyonecai nah all they have to do is point a gun at every family and simply require them to have three kids. If they were able to force thousands of families to undergo forced abortions to accomplish 100 days without birth they can probably do the direct opposite.
@@Windja69 Every Saturday, all married couples below 35 are required to attend marriage re-education meeting where films are shown. Food & alcohol are aplenty. Near end of night, couples are shown to stalls so they can discuss and act out what they have learned. Supervisors will monitor the stalls and if husbands cannot perform his duties, a willing volunteer will take his place. The Fatherland will be prosperous with tiny people in no time.
Western media is ideologically marxist and they are trying to bring about the collapse of capitalism. Hence why everything they do has an agenda and here is the thing most countries media is based on western media so they will follow suit.
@@bighands69 I think , it s recklessness. Just recklessness of "mighty, intelligent" people who control agenda more than anythinge else. We are about to pay a lot for that. So, this is the way, obviously.....
Japan is a prime example...no immigration...booming population and productivity in the 1900’s...and now they are literally destroying their currency and don’t even care.
This reminds me of something an Asian friend once said to me in a mild rage (in response to him graduating and his parents immediately asking him about a wife) "How did you expect me to go from study, study, study to wife in one go? All my life has been 'no girls, only work' and now you flip the script? How is that supposed to work?" So yeah, birth rates in east asian countries aren't doing so well, and haven't for decades in some cases
I sort of support this one child policy. There are just too many people in China. A lot of issues can't be solved and new problems emerge everyday because of its population. THe government and the people made a mistake early on to boom the population and now everyone should pay for it. Technology will make it easier for fewer people to support the aging group - they have to. It is better than having the same amount of people or more. The earth is not that resourceful to support 1.4 billion people for ever. When I heard that by the end of the this century, China's population will decrease to current's 50%, I am so happy about it. Unfortunately I can live to see that day but 6-700 million is more than enough.
@japanese 101✇ They do actually, just not the kind that could support a large military and a large economy that could be spent on imperialistic policies.
As an American who lived in China for six years, I must say - your B-roll game is spot on. Children studying all day then practicing piano, the parents working their asses off, while the grandpa plays xiangqi and grandma does tai chi in the park. This is day-to-day Chinese life in a nutshell.
Can you imagine If the US had 1.4 billion people rather than 330 million it would be a polluted deforested mess like China and India ,needing imports to feed itself. China has as many cars on the road as the US has people! www.rfidtires.com/how-many-cars-are-in-china.html and puts more C02 in the air than North America and Europe put together.
"practicing piano" its the real reason why the Chinese economy will collapse - a whole generation growing up with no real non-academic skills other than playing piano LOL
@F C this is from economicshelp.org “The biggest absolute emissions come from China and the United States. In terms of CO2 emissions per capita, China is ranked only ranked 47th, at 7.5 metric tonnes per capita.”
@@Crashed131963 (1) China is investing in EV very aggressively, much money so than in the west. Chinese startups has been producing increasingly affordable, common, and good EVs. (2) Europe and North America avoid pollution by shipping out their trash and move high pollution industry out of the country. How does this justify when they are blaming the very country they ship their trash and industry to for pollution?
@@KungKras REally? I don´t like that guy too much his china "will run out of people" is pure clickbait to take advantage of all the anti-china campain going on I refuse by the way to open that kind of videos yet they are poping up all the time on my feed
@@zaraiwzara While the government isn’t that bad they definitely took their time to introduce this policy. By now it’s too late and the culture has already revolved around having one child and won’t change for a while.
@@RoflcopterLamo the chinese are not shy to take inspiration from the fall of the soviet union, and stagnation of japan, they know what is going on and are ready to improve the conditions of people who have children, i agree it is a little late, but they plan way more ahead then western societies
@@zaraiwzara Gonna have to disagree because it literally took China the infamous “Great Leap Forward “ which caused mass famine and at least 20 million deaths for them to even come close to developed country status before they were just a backwater agricultural country with their only good resource being their population. Clearly Mao did not see that coming. The people before Mao were even worse cause they just let the country stagnant.Or ya know the whole gunning down people at a certain square.Not the best solution.
@@RoflcopterLamo The cost of "development" for western european countries was the exploitation of the americas and africa, the cost of "development" for the united states was the expansion of a english colony into mexico and indigenous territories which caused a genocide which is still happening today, the cost of industrialisation for england and the united states was the disgusting situation that the industrial workers found themselves in, and the even worse condition that the enslaved indians and africans found themselves throught the british empire, that said empire which killed dozens of millions of indians, china had become a agricultural country because of western economies forcefully pumping cheap products into the qing dinasty, which turned the qing from one of the greatest economies of their time to a nation which any domestic industries and businesses could not thrive due to cheap western products, they are only getting back where they belong, if you avaliate china's development by wertern standards, they will never be such country, even when such a shithole as the us is considered one, and what the fuck does this have to do with the planing of the chinese government? the chinese political elite thinks in terms of decades and centuries, the american one in terms of weeks, a country in which its citizens refuse to defend the nation and the state and only think about their private situation, and the elite thinks not for progress and the good of the people, but for expansion of power, deserves to be subjugated.
east asian countries by western standards are very much conservative yet somehow people in the comments still manage to blame feminism or "sjws" for their low birth rate. I'm betting these kind of people has had a hard time trying to find a partner
China currently has a surplus male population of approximately 45 million mostly under the age of 25 years old. Translation: soldiers for conscription or un-married men, which do you prefer >
Well, the calculations are based on monogamy, otherwise, one man, or one woman can have multiple offspring with multiple partners, making their number contribution to the older generation less than one. Humans aren't really monogamous, so it's not a realistic calculation.
5:45 detailed demographics 9:00 projections of demography 10:30 pre and post industrialization 13:00 Demography in Chinas future 14:20 population/Chinese vs WisconsinMaddison Uni claims its 1.18 15:30 high skill jobs and less manufacturing 17:50 lowest birth rate in recent memory 18:20 demography in Japan 20:00 it’s similar in America and although the guys analysis its locked behind nebula, I assume the US suffers less from demographics due to high immigration providing labor
The main difference is that the US is going to shed a lot of its aging population soon, had several hundred thousand immigrants in a year versus chinas singular thousand, and even still the birthrate is somehow higher in the US (even if you go by the questionable official rate from China). Plus the US has been supporting significant aging populations for a while already, we aren't going to be hit as hard as this spike continues. The USA is literally going through this right now, Babyboomers have become a massive burden on the economy but the US only has to hold out for another 10 or so years before they start fading significantly. The US will then have 30+ years before the next spike starting ramping up. Something that both countries are starting to experience at the moment though is male skewed births. Every demographic under the age of 38 has an increasingly significant male bias. This is about to bite many countries in the ass hard, as we can already see by the rising incel movement.
@@Outwardpd Yep, high immigration+extreme outsourcing of manufacturing and Chinas reliance on their manufacturing centres make the US suffer less from demographic changes. It does seem China is going to outsource manufacturing to Africa and South East Asia much more in the future so perhaps the demographic effects will be less damaging than we think.
As an Indian, I am fascinated by China. We existed for so long. Hope we dont get into unnecessary conflict. I dont want war. Edit: May have started a comment war. Dont go there.
It’s appears that quite a bit of anti-China fake news in India and YT. Usually only the Five Eye countries diving unfounded misinformation on China. Do people understand the differences?
You see in youtube people have a incentive to produce controversial and sensationalized videos. It would bring more views, would spur channel growth, subscriber count would increase, which means ad money. Plus China is one country, where silicon valley app isnt present. So that means a lot is unknown and people are curious. So theres a market for sensationalized China related videos. Fact checking or debunking of false calims doesnt get the same traction. Btw Chinese medias like Global Times too engages in anti India narrative. Its all a case of big corporation trying to curry favour with govts with "nationalistic narrative".
As someone born in China, I've been observing, learning about, and thinking about this problem for quite a while. At the end of the day, a shrinking workforce seems to be less of a problem to China than the burden of taking care of the incoming wave of retirees. When it comes to workforce, many people overlook the reality that much of China's population is still tied to low productivity agriculture. Urbanization rate in China is about 60% compared to that of 80%+ in the US. It's a reserve of workforce that can be unleashed with further adaption of industrialized farming and poverty alleviation efforts. That combined with automation and better educated workers means China has more workforce to give. But the large number of incoming retirees is not something the country can avoid. I would not be surprised if some sort of sacrifice will be demanded of these retirees in the coming years.
@@trackingthecoreofstuffandm2310 easy, they tax the shit out of companies using mass automation and then redistribute the wealth to citizens in the form of a universal income. They’re an authoritarian communist government. They can do things like that.
As a young Chinese, I said that most of them are worried about getting married and having children, mainly due to the high housing price and the cost of education
@@lubu2960 It may be difficult for people from other countries to understand. This only happened in the three East Asian countries, China, Japan and South Korea. The social culture here is full of extreme pressure and competition. This is also the main reason for the low birth rate and the aging population.
@@butterfly7562 but I don't think it is, all developed countries are suffering from housing crisis, low birth rates and aging population but they have been opened to a lot of inmigration. Does China have a lot of inmigrants?
@@lubu2960 The immigrants of the world do not like to go to China because China is not a developed country. This country has a large population and high employment pressure. Immigrants could not find good jobs in the china, so immigrants will only like to go to more developed countries, such as the West country.
@@fernandomaluenda4226 Edward Dutton would explain it better as he will go where these mild takes refuse to go. The finger pointing at china misses the point, they can recover as they haven't made the mistakes the west has yet, gorilla glue girl and saint floyd have 11 children between them, the wests fertility rate isn't better in any way, its far far worse in the saddest way possible.
@@churblefurbles Interesting. I'll have to look into Edward Dutton. Thanks for the reference. How could China recover from an aging population? What kind of mistakes regarding an aging population has the west made that China hasn't yet? I see Edward Dutton has a lot of videos to check out. If you are referencing a particular video I'd love to see it if you have the link :)
@@fernandomaluenda4226 As generations pass opportunities open up, shortage of workers creates better conditions as seen after the black plague when peasants gained power against the nobility. This only works under a closed and cohesive system, not a system under endless invasion, disrupted pandas don't breed. Some traditional values remain in china, filial piety not endless individualism, the leadership are practically minded, and believe in the welfare of their own citizens unlike ours who believe in misplaced guilt based original sin, a distorted legacy having shed christianity. As for his videos, Its mostly evolutionary psychology and examining modern selection pressures, I don't remember an exact one, but there are more of his videos on bitchute than youtube because of censorship, on here you can only promote the wrong things.
That's a shame, because your country has so much untapped potential. If the US can get its immigration policy simplified and streamlined, I hope more Nigerians consider immigrating here.
I don't know where he got Nigeria pyramid from. All internet results show extremely wide base of age pyramid and recent statistics paper projects higher Nigeria population than China in the future.
As someone who has been in Chinese internet spaces. r/incel and r/karen is the norm in their internet spaces. Meeting actual people? Everyone is okay like meeting people in every other country. Meeting people in internet spaces? Especially about political matters, just turn that computer off, man, it's not worth it.
The incel phenomenon makes sense when you think about it. Why would men want to contribute to a society where they both see no gain from it and don't consider it a society worth investing in? Not surprising that hypergamous societies end up being more violent.
I don't know why but this made me imagine some Japanese politician standing at a podium giving a speech about the declining birthrate. In the middle of a sentence he shakes the papers on the podium and screams "Why won't you **** more?!?"
Actually in initial years people didn't follow so the CCP came with harsher policies like imprisonment. This scared people and hence strictly limited to 1 child. The sad thing is, they are scared even today.
''what does a generation of young people think when they face far more challenging prospects than did their parents?'' We call 'em millennials and blame em for literally anything
It's mandatory for companies to follow, not the person. If they want, they can keep working. If they want to retire, the company has to let them. Though you don't see it a lot, sometimes doctors here work past the retirement age, but the majority of the workforce in China is manual labor. Those guys can't wait to retire and there would be a huge uproar if they weren't allowed to after 40+ years of grueling labor. That's where the problem comes from. The majority of the workforce will opt to retire the minute they hit that age. Working here, for the most part, sucks.
So Mandatory I was asked to renew my contract for a further 6 months when I was 65. But that was in the other China. Not the one reported on in the west. When will you people wake up to the crap you are feed my he media? China has changed a lot since all you keyboard experts were there!
Ironic how they only propagandize China having all these social problems yet most other countries have worse crime, development, and growth already despite all their supposed gender balance and yOuTh dEmOgRaPhIcS.
@@tritium1998 being incompetent doesn't mean you cannot criticize other incompetent people. We should all learn to receive criticism so that we can improve and grow.
Here after China declares the “third child policy” that permits, if not forcefully, the family to have three children. However, it might be too late, as the video suggested.
Mass immigration successfully solves the problem of low fertility. Look at Canada: its fertility rate is 1.47 and still they have doubled their population in the last 60 years.
@@ОнуфрийНечепуренко However, I don’t think there will be mass immigration to China shortly. First, the Chinese language is hard to learn as a second language. Compare to English 26 alphabets and 2000 vocabularies; an average person needs to remember at least 1000 alphabets and 2000 to 3000 vocabularies to have an essential Chinese ability to read and write. Second, China isn't as big as you think. Although China is around the same size as America, 99% of the population is located in less than 50% of its territory. The unequal development between the city and the country results in the insane housing price compared to the average salaries. Thirdly, China isn't as open as America, Canada, and some other European countries due to the singularity of ethnicity in China. More than 90% of the people in China are Han Chinese. Making it less tolerant and welcoming toward immigrants, especially when the purpose of immigration is to seek job opportunities, which will hurt the locals. Fourth, although China's growth in the economy is undoubtedly exceptional in the past 40 years, the personal wealth in China is still far less than that in developed countries. Making the stakes in working in China isn't as good as working in another country, especially for the professional workers who have more choice to work in different countries. Also, even if China is going to have fewer young people gradually. It is still very competitive in terms of job opportunities in China compare to some other countries. Fifth, and I think the most important one is the system; China is still under the rules of a very authoritarian and oppressive regime. Making the foreign workers have less security than other developed countries, especially those who move out of their native country because of political suppression. In conclusion, I don't think there will be mass immigration to China shortly. Still, everything might change in the future. However, China’s policies are mainly focused on the development of decades. I don't see a major change in China’s policy that will significantly boost immigration to China. Thus, making the challenge of demographic more unsolvable than other challenges in China.
Let's just force everyone to only have one child in a country where there is a massive preference towards having a son over a daughter, what could go wrong?
It’s easy to criticize the policy for all its flaws now, but it did dramatically reduce China’s outrageous population growth. My grandparents and great-grandparents had anywhere from 5 to 11 children per household because of old cultural norms and lack of knowledge on contraceptions. That is simply unsustainable as land, food, and other resources are finite. Fast forward to today, the TFR in many African countries are above 5 due to the same reasons I mentioned. And what did they get in return? Being the poorest continent? Having the highest rate of poverty and starvation? High TFR is obviously not the only reason, but it’s a significant one nonetheless. While I acknowledge China’s one-child policy was far from perfect, I would take gender imbalance over starving children any day. Moreover, the preference for boys is not unique to China. It’s simply an old-school and sexist view on gender that exists in nearly every civilization. With time, however, attitudes shift as people become educated. This preference for boys is definitely decreasing in China as parents become more educated and progressive.
@@edwink1467 Men are seen as workers and more important industrially. Women are seen as cooks and homeworkers, more important for making men. Yeah its ch
@@finish_my_projects No he's not. No one should jump to that conclusion based on what he wrote (unless that's all you care about). He's simply pointing out how, at the time, such a policy was seen as necessary given how out-of-control China's population growth had become and how it did, in a way, do its job by slowing that growth down. Obviously, it's perfectly fair to ask "yeah, but" and "at what cost," but it's too easy to overlook why it took effect in the first place.
There is a more crucial problem: with falling fertility rates, Jonathan Swift's restaurants will need to increase prices due to falling supply. This could have serious consequences for the fine dining industry
Hey fine dining can suck it. As long as the take out places are open I’m ok. Plus, gives people motivation to become better cooks on their own. Fine dining is for snobs
It's already happening in America where ~85 percent of men are not sexually active. Our birth rate is pretty low as a consequence, though not as low as Europe's.
@@animewatch4213 No I actually follow channels like Laowhy86 and SerpentZA. But often the average world politics, geography and economics channels will boast how good China is supposedly doing.
@Pajeet Patel There's the fact that China is doing well in many areas and then there's what many news articles and youtubers say which is often overblown like "Xi Jinping will practically rule the world by 2030"
@PW - 10ZZ 917528 The Woodlands SS trump isn't president anymore and if anything boomers were his support base so why would he want to reduce the amount of potential voters supporting him?
@PW - 10ZZ 917528 The Woodlands SS so it was trump not governors like como who put elderly at risk by putting covid patients into th nursing homes. So trump is responsible for 15,000 deaths cause como said to put them in nursing homes. While trump provided the virtually unused javit center, or navy medical ship that was less the 20% full?
As someone who was born and raised in China, I can say that the trend of aging population will likely continue in China if the gov doesn’t intervene. There’s been a significant shift in attitude toward marriage and child-bearing amongst young women since the implementation of the one-child policy, with more and more young women gravitating towards higher education, careers and self-fulfillment, many are feeling reluctant to get married and have children as early as their parents did, citing work stress, the high cost of raising children and a general lack of interest in family/domestic duty. The fertility rate will continue to drop - that is if the gov doesn’t intervene. But given what we know about the Chinese gov - they likely will. After all, in the 50s/60s Mao did heavily promote large families size & condemn/outlaw abortion and contraceptives - which led to the population explosion hence why China needed the one-child policy in the first place. It’s sad to think one day these educated and empowered young women might be forced/brainwashed to become baby making machines.
It only makes sense, it is what happened in the rest of the world without the one child policy. This is probably going to be a large challenge for China in the future
@@pepega7015 Why do you care if people are getting more feminine traits? I’m pretty sure a Pepe the frog profile pic isn’t the greatest indicator of masculinity
Dang that’s kind of depressing to think about too. In a video game you can repeat and try to do better, but irl once you miss the window, you miss the only chance in life. Then your body decays and you die.
This happened 5th time in this month. Some one quoted a portion of the video and while I was reading it I heard the same thing on the video. Is anyone else experiencing this dejavu?
@@e7venjedi I'm in my early 20's and it seems that I've graduated at such inconvenient times. Idk what I'm doing lol. At this point, idk actually what's worth doing
This analysis could work for Japan, where you have all of the population integrated into the modern economy. But China is different, China still has a massive population of poor people in the countryside. Their situation now is rather unique because of their scale, and those internal differences. Japan only stopped growing when it caught up to the west economically, if something similar happens to China they'll be much bigger in absolute terms just because of their scale...
@@dirremoire I'm sorry, I didn't mean to say they are miserable in rural China. Just saying they don't need external immigrants to replace population growth in urban China since they can still count on internal migration from their countryside for a few more decades at least.
@@dirremoire Rural China isn't doing well at all. While China is bragging about eliminating extreme poverty, they are using numbers that very poor countries use (some of the poorest in the world). To make this claim, the Chinese government uses a poverty line of about $2.25 a day, in 2011 prices and adjusting for purchasing power. The World Bank believes that a threshold of $1.90 a day is appropriate for countries with per capita incomes of less than $1,000 or so, such as Ethiopia. For lower-middle-income countries such as India-with per capita incomes between $1,000 and about $4,000-it recommends a poverty line of $3.20 a day. For upper-middle-income countries like China, it reckons that a reasonable poverty line is $5.50 a day. In other words, the Chinese government uses a poverty line appropriate for a country making the transition from low- to lower-middle-income, even though China is 10 times as wealthy. www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2021/01/25/deep-sixing-poverty-in-china/
If China caught up well developed country gdp per capital as Japan, It will be 4 times size economic of US. It depends future technologies, we might not need as many ppls as usual.
Very well analysed. I am Chinese and used to think the rise of China to the top was unstoppable. Now I see only a window of opportunity from now to 2030. If China cannot be No.1 then, it is likely that she would have lost that opportunity forever.
Honestly I think it’s inevitable that China will gain hegemony over the eastern hemisphere, but whether they remain the number two or become the number one super power remains to be seen. I think the US will maintain hegemony over the Western Hemisphere, at the very least North America and Western Europe will remain in the USA’s sphere of influence.
@@JollyOldCanuck idk dude, i would say that probable if they had India on their side. China has pissed of a lot of it's neighbor's including Vietnam, India, Japan, Taiwan and even Russia.
it's too bad the countries of the world care more about being 1st than being better than they were yesterday. There's so much we could do besides a space race/nuclear arms race/aircraft carrier race...
To me China has reached the limits of it's system. Now that Xi, having made himself president for life, a charlaton has taken over and increases government intrusion in people's lives China's sucesses arein jeopardy. If Dengs model had been followed things would be different.
Peter Zeihan makes an analysis & commentary on why China will never become a global superpower it so badly craves. Demographic collapse, dependence on natural resources & commodities from non-friendly/hostile countries, potential economic collapse (housing and credit crunch) and weak military (esp. navy).
China, for most of my life (50 years), has had a one child policy, and I wondered how that would play out eventually. This is a very interesting video. Very interesting. Thank you.
1 child was a temporary policy for the big cities to prevent births of poor people since rich people could pay a fine to have children in the big cities, in rural areas you could have 3 children and smaller cities 2.
Heyyy I made a video on the same topic a while back. While one child policy has certainly played a role, the industrialization and development of China is the major factor responsible for this. The increased cost of living and working parents are some of the factors which force parents to have lesser and lesser children
Honestly Chinese birth rates are said to be extreme by people but in actual fact they are better than Japan, Germany or South Korea. This idea that China is in a uniquely bad position is quite inaccurate.
I don't think it was claimed it was uniquely bad. But at least for Germany and other similar western countries, they have more immigration to compensate. That's why the us is predicted to grow at a faster rate than China in the next century
Some perspective: most Chinese youths (35 and under) are actually seeing the shrinking birthrate as a great sign of hope. The country is moving past the stage of labor intensive industrialization, but much of its corporate world is still stuck in the old mind set of relying on plenty supply of cheap and quality labor, resulting in long working hours, toxic work place culture, and other exploitative practices. The corporations' assumption is that "if you don't do it, there are plenty of others who are qualified to take your place". In some way it is quite similar to early 20th century US prior to the labor movement. Given how labor movement is not really an option in China, the younger generation is taking a more obvious route: having fewer kids or no kids at all, so that the corporation will be eventually forced to treat all their employees better when they dont have many to choose from. In some sense this is already working. A fun saying on the Chinese internet: "population dividend means the population is the dividend, not dividend for the population".
What are your thoughts on the emerging crisis in China (mortgage payment strikes and systemic risk from fractional-reserve banking) and it's likely impact on emerging markets?
In a word scary. Because ultimately the global market is so interlinked and the world has been decoupling from China. This creates massive economic stress and a scenario no model or econometric analysis would have predicted.
@@sebastianspiegler5801 Great question, I think it's a really interesting area and so many factors in play right now. I wouldn't let any macro news affect the way I invest at all, otherwise you'd probably never invest a single penny - but that being said, it's a reminder to be well diversified!
@@sebastianspiegler5801 There is only bad news out there but yet stock prices are up which shows that even though the market is meant to be forward looking it is clear the string results are the only things they are interested in. some bad market news will come out and the bear will return. But then again who knows, we could all be riding that bull "to the moon"
@Chloe Baker The stock market is definitely the most awkward teenager with the wildest mood swings! I searchon Katherine using her full name and found her reachout-page, read through her resume, educational background, qualifications and it was really impressive. She is a fiduciary who will act in my best interest. So, I booked a session with her
Cool ! I'm 60 and worn out from working all my life. Had a great life and it won't be long before I'm ready for "The big dirt nap !" Best of luck to the new generations coming because I'm sure technology will see a bright and happy future for everyone.... Meanwhile.....take care everyone !!
I have a different view. I have lived at the pinnacle period of human achievement. Its going to be all downhill for centuries to come, until everything is reduced to barbarism and begins again. Life today is heinous compared to what it was 20 or 30 years ago, its getting worse very fast...and technology is the reason. The only thing I will miss if I died today is the schadenfreude I would draw from seeing everything collapse.
@@charliepearce8767 Why are the Mad Max, Terminator and Snake Plisskin movies among the most popular ever? Did the 100 million killed in ww2 "want it to"...you live in a rose tinted world I fear.
@@alexspareone3872 High school musical was pretty popular too but I don't see people looking at that going "Yup, sign of the times, people are gonna start randomly bursting out into song and dance." There are countless times in history where people thought they were at the peak but were proven wrong over and over. Sure, one day someone will adopt your bleak view and be right but it'll be by chance rather than any great vision. I get it, having a dreary view of the world means you can say "I told you so" if it does turn bad and never get your hopes up, exposing yourself to the disappointment. You miss out on a lot of life that way though. I hope that, as you grow up, you'll realise its better to hope and try for more than to give in and let your life fall into a darkness of your own creation.
@Ksthy Simmons the answer to that is absolutely NO GOVERNMENT steps in and aids children in need unless they themselves are predatory & have a use for those children. my view point is that the african countries that caved-in to china’s request for their children, should have simply said “no”.
@Ksthy Simmons What are you talking about? Who colonized Africa for hundreds of years? 90% of African territory was independent until 1870s and European empires started collapsing by 1945. Until then Europeans only dotted the coastline with ports here and there (with a notable exception of South Africa). Incidentally, Africa spent least time being colonized among all continents (except Europe - if you dont count Europeans conquering each other as an equivalent act). In fact, modern African states are now independent about as long as the time they spent as colonies. The European involvment in African slave trade (Atlantic triangle) did last for hundreds of years though, so you maybe mixed those two things up. European involvment in African slave trade essentially began for two reasons: 1) Ottomans, trough conquest, monopolized the Black Sea slave trade, which used to be Genoan business. 2) Discovery of Americas and native population dying due to smallpox The American countries on the other hand, will have to be independent for another 100 years to be independent for the same amount of time as they were colonized.
China still have a lot of farmers. They don't retire and just working on their land till death. It is a important aspect that you dont consider.（400 million people in China do not have pension insurance because they are not worker）.For me my grandfather is 80 years old and still farming on his land. My dad is a worker and the real problem will come at the time when my dad’ generation retire and it is about 10 years later.
Also,as people get old and retire....there will be less consumers ...that’s bad for the nation economy including the government...they will lose a lot money from consumers tax and business taxes
They’re old on the farms, but they work until they drop, since Junior has run off to the city, so there is some productivity value squeezed out of the unfortunate rural aged. And they are already used to a bowl of rice a day and crappy (cheap) health care.
About 25 % of the Chinese workforce work in agriculture vs. maybe 2 % in Germany. That’s a lot of potential for people to work in other areas, especially when you consider that China is advancing rapidly in technology.
17:44 Very true. Humans SUCK at solving long term, relatively invisible problems. Jakarta's sinking issue comes to mind. Vox did a pretty good video on it.
@P Ciprian yes, also propaganda. In Europe in school they teach you that it's bad have children because imaginery "bad" climate change. Lack knowledge and common sense is alarming in Europe right now.
@@fraided88 Hey, CFS levels are falling fast here in the States too. Common Fucking Sense is becoming a dusty museum piece, only quietly discussed as ancient lore and mythology.
A second point I want to add is due to the high cost of raising children, a lot of people are reluctant to have children. That’s why relaxing the policy to 2 children per family is not having much effect. China needs to improve its severe inequality in resources distribution and provide better support for child care to be able to start turning the problem around. But both of those issues will also take years to solve. If inequality is not addressed and welfare cannot improve, we might have a nation with a dwindling young population who in turn is having even less children per household than the previous generation.
In short, free market capitalism fucks over countries like Marx realized because eith consolidates all the wealth in the hands of a greedy few who now can’t sustain their lifestyles as nobody will continue to want to be exploited
Not to mention that valuing men over women also compounds that problem. If your society values families with few children and likes boys more than girls then you're gonna have a generation of incels.
@@Theturtleowl the school of life generally does teach one resistance to poor decisions. The decades in which one collects such a database is empirical knowledge: based on, concerned with, or verifiable by observation or experience rather than theory or pure logic. Your grandmother found interactions with certain persons distasteful and the strategy she developed was essentially hello followed by continuing on her way. I employed another form of declining to engage with the jerk that made the previous comment: jerks are best dealt with by ignoring them completely.
Another empirical conclusion based on decades of observations: haters spew hatred because they themselves recognize their own failures and failings but because they are haters they blame others rather than take responsibility for their own shortcomings. Socialism and communism originate from that same poisonous well of hatred for everyone that proves wiser than themselves.
@@curtislowe4577 Man can you be my grandparent? Jk just kidding. God I love talking to wise people. All my grandparents do is to b*tch on one another. I crave to listen to wise and intelligent people.
As a beekeeper I confirm that if you don't have bees in all stages ( eggs , larvae , capped brood ) no matter if you have 60000 bees in one colony this will collapse very fast during one generation and you realise you have 5000 bees
I remember years ago telling my daughter that the gender imbalances in China and India was going to lead to a large conventional war. The huge number of unattached men can be too destabilizing for society. I didn't factor in nuclear weapons keeping both countries on a leash.
And the fact governments are not doing enough to counter global warming would you want to leave your kids with the fact our lifestyles are killing our home.
Man, your writing is marvelous! I am at awe at your simple yet accurate choice of words. Your sentences are on point. Every one of them is crafted beautifully. Well done!
Most of this I was already aware of. The CCP has maybe a twenty year window to do what it wants, then countervailing forces weigh it down. This is one of the key things driving CCP policy. An excellent post, thank you.
I doubt it, the population pyramid for China in 2000s was in a similar shape to the current model and in those years they have massively flourished. That is all without counting for the increased automation, Belt and Road initiative, and the revert back to the 2 child policy.
@@tomjing8921 Of course, you're factually wrong. As so many people have pointed out before, China is going to get old before it gets rich. China hasn't avoided the middle income trap, in other words. This was brought up in the video, by the way. Ecological and environmental issues weren't addressed to speak of, in this video. China is squandering a lot of cheap and easy cash now that it will need later. But let's take your point of view further, let's talk about AI. China is literally banking on reaching the Singularity before any other country, but even assuming it does it may still not work out for China. Are you in the pay of the CCP? Edit: An afterthought, you also forget the sex ratio, which this video mentioned, three men for two women is a serious limit on the number of children that can be born. You COULD argue women should or could have more children, but it's highly unlikely given modern trends and history. The number of women is key. More women, more babies.
I think one very important aspect, that you scratched, but not really mentioned is that most of the economic revenue isn't produced by the 1.3 billion chinese, but more by like 300 million living mainly in the east of china. So the impact of a smaller population or earning-class isn't that hard hitting, because there are still enough people to fill in the gap.
That’s actually what I was thinking throughout the video. The Chinese government should be able to use this as an opportunity to transition the majority poor population into middle class jobs as the population decreases. They could stabilise the population growth and bring the average value of Chinese citizens up.
That is absolutely true, but first off: jobs are starting to move away from China to places like Vietnam. Second, the fertility decline is ALSO affecting rural peasants. So even though they will subsidize the remaining manufacturing jobs, that just kicks the can down the road until the remaining 1.1 billion people evaporate from the the demographic collapse.
@@Zei33 Also, the number of jobs isn't increasing to compensate new rural peasants moving into the east. So while there will be a steady stream of rural immigrants, that is economic stagnation; not growth.
@@guacre2675 at the size China is, stagnation is really not a problem. It’s like paying off a loan. You have a big amount of money suddenly, but your worth stabilises once you buy the house. You then spend 20-30 years paying off the loan before you start to increase your net worth more dramatically. China will reduce its population while keeping its economy steady. Then once they’re able to stabilise the population for a number of years, they can once again start working on economic growth in place of population growth.
@@Zei33 I think polymatter explains in the video that population growth is how nations grow their GDP. Developed countries (minus Japan) have small population growth, so their economies grow slowly. China after Mao had a rapid population growth, so it had a rapid economic growth. China's and Japan's economies are doomed, which is what the video is about.
One more problem: Chinas loss in absolute numbers is so huge, it cannot be countered by selective immigration, unlike in Europe, Canada, Australia, etc
@CK H that’s more to do with the culture of China being an ethnocentric society. Very few Han Chinese want to see more foreigners in their society so the government couldn’t open up even if it wanted to as we can see in democratic japan where the public don’t want large immigration even with a shrinking population so the government doesn’t do it
As an American immigrant, I really wish you had included the nebula bonus section in this version. Far too often are my people vilified for coming to this country, and the people that do that don’t realize how important immigration is to the USAs success.
@@meneither3834 He talks about that in the extended Nebula section. American immigrants assimilate very very well and much better than immigrants to China. The culture of the American dream is very strong, and almost all immigrants come here to experience that culture rather than attempt to turn the US into their homeland. Otherwise why come at all.
@@MegaDman34 it's more than that. Immigrants don't "assimilate well" in America. It's that America is a multicultural nation that accepts that you can be both American& something else (it doesn't work 100% of the time but relative to the rest of the world it's pretty good.) Countries with an established single dominant culture like in Europe or China can't integrate immigrants as easily. And I'm not sure why but east Asian countries (China, Kora, Japan ) are even worse than the monocultural countries west of them.
@@meneither3834 Yeah I get what your point is. The end result is still the same, immigrants assimilate well in America. What factors contribute the most to that are up for debate, but I agree with everything you mentioned above.
@@MegaDman34 "the end result is still the same" Well yeah but as a European I'm interested in how we can take inspiration from the American system without crushing local cultures.
One thing that videos about ageing populations always fail to mention is the increase in automation. We're always being told how millions of low skilled manufacturing jobs and service jobs are about to disappear forever, which would mean less demand for labour. I'm not saying this will fix all demographic issues but I would like to see it factored into the analysis as it would probably make a big difference to the conclusion.
Biggest issue with automation is that robots aren’t consumers. If you have millions of low-skilled workers, they all need housing, food, transportation and drive up GDP. Replacing it with robots is increasing GDP for the factory owner, but less so for housing, retail, agriculture and car manufacturers.
@@LaidbackLuc9 If there is any country that will be able to deal with wealth redistribution from automation, that is China. You should worry more about your country when millions of poor third worlders lose their jobs and start to get restless...
@@enterchannelnamehere2922 Why? China hasn't coped with wealth distribution in its modern history, mostly because the cake grew bigger so it wasn't that much of an issue how the slices were shared. But it's not just old age pensioners who have certain lifestyle expectations, it's single children, born under the 1 child policy, with good grades and solid education who also be hurt by automation if they assume that China will easily go from industrial powerhouse to services country in one generation. My country may also face some adversity from automation, but is spending ~10k USD per inhabitant on social security. In China, it's more like $ 0,3k USD per inhabitant per annum on social security. This will ramp up even regardless of any job losses due to automation.
@@Emperorick2 i highly doubt that is feasible within this century, maybe even later or ever. Human biology is far too complex and rigid to get people to rejuvenate back to youth.
@@jimcherry685 an estimate of the remaining fuel left in our Sun before it goes Red Giant class and the inner pressure of explosions expands it's surface, thus crisping Mercury and making life a beach on Earth. Least that's what I recall learning in school
*No 1: Don't Only Hope On Government For Income,* *No 2: As An Individual Look For Different Self Income Not Only Waiting on Monthly Wages,* *No 3: Always Save The Little You Can And Think Of What To Do With It When It Become Good For Capital.* It's 100% Good To Have Different Ways To Gain Income, because Government have failed us so therefore let's try and survive
Yes ! For real It is very important to have different streams of income and a diversified portfolio as for me I have already invested in crypto which is very profitable and easy to gain
My son was in Hong Kong. He dated a 25 yr old single woman. A survivor of the 1 child policy. They going to get married. But she had to take care of elderly grandma. There was one else. Many of these single woman are career oriented. That 14,000,000 birth rate calculates out to .01%, Normal birth is about .04 - .05% about 1/4 normal replacement. But most industrial countries are self destructing..
This is why immigration is increasingly important for sustaining a country. It allows the host to pick out those motivated enough to adapt, with those who don't make the cut either getting ejected or departing on their own (a labor flexibility not so easy to perform with citizens). Likely we'll see Old World ethnostates like NE Asia failing to find a second wind, and more openly adoptive competitors eventually passing them in the longer marathon of generations.
@@doujinflip “let’s completely ignore the core reason for the issue (1st world country economic aspects) and try to fix it by importing people from completely different cultural backgrounds who will in the long term only serve to destroy local autochrome demographics and one’s core national identity”
Not really a survivor, plenty of my relatives had more than one child, you just need to pay fines for it, and I'm pretty sure that access to insurance may be less, but after all most families are more than happy to make that contribution for an extra child. Also, the fine is nothing dramatic, if you have a job you can handle it.
@@salomez-finnegan7952 but mate, immigrants are all doctors and don't get old or use resources themselves. It's not like we could just invest in better technology. You must be waycist.
Great video. I’ve been following the world’s demographic slowdown for more than 20 years, it’s always amazing how the vast majority think we have nothing but a population explosion, 40 years after that ceased to be the real problem.
It's odd how environmentalists love to say "there's too many humans, so you are morally obligated to have no more than 1 kid!" But if you look at demographic predictions most of the world will experience an aging population followed by a drastic drop in numbers. We need more humans so we don't fuck our economy 2-3 decades from now.
When showing the "unrealistic" extremes, it exposes the "reality" of history in the US. Baby boom, which spawned the child care industry. This was followed by the Production boom, which largely contributed to low reproduction rates. All of which now leaves us currently in the Senior boom, where many can't leave the work force, and opportunities continue to shrink for the new Producers and Babies.
Regarding the one child policy, it only was really followed in urban areas and people with a certain socio-economic background. When I worked in China a couple of years ago I had multiple students who had 4 brothers and sisters. Regarding these urban areas, it's also important to keep in mind that not everyone working in, say Guangzhou or Shanghai, are officially living there. The parents work there, but their residence is actually some other province that could be far away, and their children live back in that province and are raised by the grandparents in the villages. The villages consist of kids and old people, with money being sent back from the parents working in the urban centers. Therefore part of the population of these urban areas (the parents references above) always were having more than one child, those children just were and are being raised far from the urban areas. I point these things out because in the video you seem to use the one child policy to cast doubt on the CCP's official 1.6 births per woman number. While I have no idea what the real number is and I don't trust anything said or written by the CCP, the reasoning that the policy must have caused a lower rate than that is faulty.
Assuming the 1-child policy is completely followed, the TFR would have been at 1.0. A TFR of 1.6 already shows that people from somewhere, especially in rural areas where its hardly enforced, are having more than 1 child per family. 1.18 would mean it is working a lot more than the official Chinese statements. Although I would agree that a TFR of 1.6 is a bit dubious and the numbers would slightly be higher than that, Japan has a TFR of 1.42, South Korea has a TFR of 0.98, without any 1-child policy to affect that. While the rural areas are still far from developed, the urban centers where it is starting to look like any other modern city, would start to follow a similar trend of low birthrates like its neighbors.
@@AshlandInsuranceOregon Yes and I specifically acknowledged that. If you read what I said it was pointing out that his reasoning for doubting that number (other than the fact that you cannot trust any information from the CCP on their say-so alone), namely that there were so many more than 1 child born for every woman when there had been a one-child policy in effect, tacitly assuming that the CCP was willing and able to enforce this policy strictly, was flawed logic.
@@madensmith7014 Muddying the whole "guessing by massaging the data" situation is that most likely China made the one child policy knowing that it wouldn't be strictly followed. They would have known that a TFR of 1.0 would be terrible. They were worried about extremely high TFRs that they couldn't handle. Perhaps they underestimated the drop off in desire to have more children that would occur in the future, but they clearly never intended for it to be strictly followed. It's safe to assume they weren't that dumb. I am not arguing that one number is right and another is wrong. The point of my post was solely to point out the reasoning that "china had a one child policy and it should have had a better effect than to cause a 1.6 TFR" is flawed, and to give examples of how it's flawed. The 1.18 figure may be entirely correct. It's got nothing to do with my post in the end.
⭐️ If you have Nebula, go watch this there for the full, extended version. If you don't, why not? It's only $15/year and gives you extra-
long versions of these videos: curiositystream.com/polymatter
Also, Part 2 of this series is here: th-cam.com/video/EgVXRtq5EIg/w-d-xo.html
Meh
Meh
Meh
Heyyy despite my profile picture I am not chinese, just a great sino phile and I think one thing you didn't mention in the video is the fact that in china seniors work literally until their deaths and are able to do so because they have much better diets and are far more active and healthy then their western counterparts, however I know this only slightly delays the problems you have touched upon in the video.
Meh
this dude got assigned to make a powerpoint presentation for history class once and just never stopped
He’s crushing it this shit slaps
@Jordie Wrong place mate, you should write this on the Housing Crisis video :)
ROFL!!!!!!
@@tadoshka5170 chinese housing crisis or just general housing crisis video?
@Jordie cool, you read one article huh? Lol
“3 single men for every 2 single women”.
Ah yes the good old “Love Pentagon”
More like a 1 to 1 plus a love triangle
@@liamanderson6424 Absolutely not. _Ménage à cinq!_
China might need to import ladies. Lol
@@jie1379 they do already from North Korea, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Philippines
That's good for us gay lol
I learned this whole concept from a game called Banished. I wasn't producing enough food or clothing so I didn't add more houses for people to have more babies. Suddenly almost everyone was too old to have babies. I build some houses and had a few babies, but my population plummeted over the next 20 years. From a town of 600 to 200 within a few years. Now every other house was abandoned, outposts unmanned, not enough firewood to trade for livestock, fields going unharvested. It was pretty bad and I learned a valuable lesson about linear population growth instead of exponential.
Banished is really a good game.
Here is how things look in the world. To have a stable population the birth rate needs to be 2.0 and that is not counting disease or natural disasters.
Every western country right now has a birth rate below two. Hungary has realized this and is actively trying to build their marketplace to encourage an increase in birth rate.
Germany for the last 40 years has had a birth rate of about 1.3 and its average age is about 45 years old. Pakistan has a birth rate of 3.5 and an average age of 21 years of age.
Western populations have only been growing through immigration and not the birth rate.
Banished just received a much needed update
you can now open up the southern border & allow mexicans to bolster the ranks of your populace
plus they will work for cheap!
gotta love unfettered immigration
yes,except banished era doesnt have a Robot and AI to replace the worker
Ah banished the Game where an entire-40hrs city can banish in like two years. And pray to god not to run out of food for even a milisecond
its true. my first thought was "they could just have more children"
then i thought about me and my wife, living with both my parents and her parents on a meager salary. would i want more than 1 kid? would i want any? especially if both of us only grew up as only children?
its a death spiral.
Hmm. Hadn't thought about that. Why would the average single child grow up thinking that they should have many children? Chinese individuals were most likely never even exposed to any such households growing up... it would not even factor into your thinking as a plausible scenario.
My wife and I are on good salaries and we don't want children either.
So if you got people who want children but can't afford it and those who can afford but don't want them (traitors! *FOR THE MOTHERLAND! *) it kinda leaves nations in a bit of bind. Not just China most western nations are also going through population stagnation through low birth rate.
@@jmgonzalez4 Actually many Chinese youths don't even want 1 child now because it is simply too tiring in China to raise a Child.
@@jmgonzalez4 Excuse me? Like you literally going to throw this out as an acceptable fact? China has boomer generations as well. I have like more than 8 uncles and aunts, more than I can care to count. Mao made them breed like rabbits. The only reason why we don't have huge families today is a) child policy b) economic limitations.
Bingo, country gets richer, get raised better, get smarter earlier, then you get kids later, cause you were smart enough to realize what a drag having them is (in many ways).
Heck I still think of it the same way I think of pets, if I'm at an office a third of the day, sleeping another third, and have to divide the last third between myself, my family, and getting from place to place, what time is left for a pet, let alone a kid. Maybe if working from home becomes the standard, and we knock off these stupid "8" hour work days, but fuck by the time that happens I'll be too old to care.
"what was the last time you saw a headline about declining births"
Me living in europe: Every day
Really ? That's happening in Europe ? I would of thought Europe was booming
The replacement rates in all European countries, except maybe 1 or 2, are below 2.0. Sadly, in Eastern European countries, they're often as low as 1.2 or 1.1 thanks to the toxic influence of the former Soviet Union.
@@knowledgeispower3212
why would you think that lol
@@zjg3913 Take ur hate speech elsewhere, bigot. Families don't need to be as large because child mortality is decreasing, birth control methods are widespread and people rather focus on their own lives rather than spend their entire adulthood taking care of infants. You are just angry because no woman would want to carry your child.
@@knowledgeispower3212 Western nations have been below 2 for decades, we were talking about this in the 80's is social studies.
As a former baby i can confirm it is all true
You have proof of that claim?
Suddenly everyone in this comment section were former babies. Curious
Lmaooo
@Smunstu Stinkymonster Well, it is kinda true, just like South Korea and Japan, our birth rate is declining fast. I think this is partly due to the culture and and partly due to the society. However, luckly, we have enough people, and who knows, maybe by 2050s we have robots to help us.
BTW EU, US even India all have declining brith rate.
This is a world problem, if we want to fix this, we should fight for The Fourth Industrial Revolution.
while other countries with lower birthrate are developed countries, China isn't. which is problem.
0:45 As a Greek its simultaneously funny and tragic that my country ends up in almost every financial graph, even when completely unrelated 🤣
I got confused when I saw the graph and asked myself what is Greece doing there 😂
@@chubs2312 The worst-hit countries in the 2008 financial crisis: USA and Greece.
Δεν μας λέει όμως ο πολιματερ πως να βγούμε από την κρίση.
And Greek men don't see the light at the end of the tunnel therefore no dating and starting families?
Hard to believe Singaporean and Thai men are reaching the same conclusion despite being better off financially. They just don't see good future ahead.
at least greek people have an escape hatch with being in the EU
I am not entirely sure what culture will develop amongst 34 million single men. But I feel very safe in theorizing a keen appreciation for quality hand lotions as a shared attribute.
@BluPill that would be counter productive as hell, especially since they really want to take over Taiwan, and you can’t do that with fem boys
@BluPill rise in prostitution and rapes. huge demand of girls. Plus, huge men converting to gays due lack of girls. Very weird situation
@@ankitaharwal5886 I’m pretty sure people don’t choose to be gay like choosing if they want to drive or walk to work one day.
@@ankitaharwal5886 damn dude what's this "gay" your talking about where can I buy it? If so then is there a discount? /s
@@ankitaharwal5886 people don't convert to gays, just like gays don't convert to straight if they cant find a partner, ignorant
"Assuming it takes 2 people to make a baby"
I need to see studies on that topic
[citation needed]
I don't know about that. Just ask me, my wife and my wife's boyfriend.
@@mrRunist We have a term for people like you.
@@mrRunist Oof
@@antediluvianclockwork9769 Happy, since his wife's boyfriend just got him the new xbox!
"Most useless of them - babies"
"Little money eating machines"
6:48
Seems like you are a father
😂😂😂
No lie detected tho
@@tulaldrete IN the old days, your children and grandchildren were "social security".
@@knoahbody69 they still are. Lol social security doesn't grow faster than inflation, so it's as worthless as having thrown money into a safe.
The only way social security can work is from contributions from the younger workforce.
So, yeah. Children and grandchildren are still social security. 😂
Now, if we had let that insane amount of money become invested... There wouldn't be any issue with it running out. It's just that congress can't simply dip into it when they want to fund some pork if it's invested.
Babies are the drivers of the whole economy. Husbands and Wives raise their children together, working, buying things, feeding kids, paying mortgage, etc. Run out of babies and your Nation goes extinct. The Most Valuable thing you can do, is fall in Love. Get Married, Have lots of kids.
Babies DRIVE Demand, as they are, by definition - the largest consumers. New clothes as they grow, new furnature, new cars and homes, lots of food... so the ideal equation is to have 6 to 12 babies. USA cheap food helps turn surplus calories into human beings. A pallet load of potatoes has value, but convert that pallet load of potatoes into a dozen human beings and you have increased productivity and added value to profits. $$$
"Consider the last time you saw a news headline about declining birth."
Since I live in Japan, roughly every couple of months or so.
Oof
Norwegian here, hear about it often too!
@@jr-wv4qw When you notice that we're just outsourcing fucking to third world countries a lot of strange cultural trends start to make sense
@@jr-wv4qw nowadays you do not need to import population any more. More and more robots will replace human beings. Robots are still way way cheaper than human beings, any human beings after all. Robots will never complain about salary and working environment .
@@hidalgobc we need more robots instead of humans. All human beings will be replaced by AI in the end.
I was in Germany in the 1980’s when I saw on my morning commute, trains carrying very large industrial machinery, later that month I saw a program about these very machines. They were heavy industrial machines from the German steel industry. They were being shipped to China. These were the machines that built Germany’s post war economy and were about to build Chinas new economy. I was seeing history in the making. Today China has been remarkably successful with their second hand industrial revolution.
Bought at the price of scrap iron.
@Normie meme your logic is flawed in so many ways I can't even begin LOL.
You should think about why America moved the industries over. What environments supported that. Same in India, and rest of 2nd world and 3rd world countries.
Also everyone "steals" or feel "inspired" on that technology spectrum. If you invented a gasoline engined car, does that mean everyone else who makes a gasoline engined car stole your technology?
Plagiarism is not chinese nor even technology exclusive. It's just how the world works. Ancient cultures like China, Egypt, Greek etc have invented many things that western nations claimed they invented after copying. This is like the same thing...it's double standard to say it's okay one way but not the other, not to mention it's norm to do so
They have been successful in the short-run but the country will pay, sadly, in the long-run.
@Normie meme Excusez-moi, China has been the top economy in the world for hundreds of years and maintained trading surplus for a long time. It’s BIGGEST historic fault is didn’t invest her gaining into colonization as Western countries did.
If wasn’t invaded and impoverished by the Western counties, and the global monetary system didn’t switch from silver to gold China was supposed to have resources and sovereignty to maintain its development.
Your memory is just to short to remember a history long enough to tell the whole story.
USA has been sending factories to China for decade. They make the American workers train their Chinese replacements before they fire them and ship the whole factory to China. One of the things the Chinese bought when Nixon opened up trade with them was 3 707 Boeing jetliners. 2-3 years later they had built their own jet that looked EXACTLY like a 707, but it weighed twice as much.
My man roasting babies and kids with absolute zero chill. 10/10
lol
Mm yum
Delicious
@@grey3247
CANNIBAL
Boomer: Why don´t you have a job!?
GenZ: sir, I am 8yo"
Boomer: I had TWO jobs at your age!
“Little money eating machines which conveniently wait several decades before offering anything of value.” That’s surprisingly accurate.
As a little money eating machine which is starting to offer its first years of value to society i just wanna say: Those 25-ish years were the best time haha
Is it though? The baby boomers should have killed America, if that was the case. A that money used with no capital. You had more baby's than every other generation combined, yet it was the most explosive economic time in US history. And yet, when those baby's turned 45, they made things worse for their little money eaters.
@@patrickasplund boomers did kill America
@@patrickasplund The situation the US found itself in following WW2 was pretty unique: Europe in ruins and in debt, Japan bombed and occupied, most of Asia under authoritarian communism while the US mainland was almost untouched by war and had built a massive manufacturing industry.
As productivity requires less physical labor, why is it so hard to believe seniors can't contribute value to the economy? Retirement is a luxury. And let's not forget that it is the money of those older generations' retirement funds that invest in the start ups and continuing growth companies. And when they pass on, that money gets left behind.
Folks, there's cause for optimism yet.
Wendover Productions: Airplanes
Real Life Lore: Toyota Corolla
PolyMatter: China
Ahhh yes, the three horsemen of educational videos
@@Alex-uc8qc Except you forgot kurzgesagt
true
Nomad lol
@@Alex-uc8qc I think you forgot about me
Today, 90 days after uploading this video the Chinese government declared emergency measures and now recommend that every family has 3 children.
Won't work if they don't provide some meaningful benefits for those with more children.
I am so happy you have studied the whole of the Chinese policy. Most on here relied on the CIA, Voice of America and CNN and other media for their information. Perhaps you are NOT brainwashed! (Sarcasm doesn't work o stupid people you know!)
@@onlyonecai nah all they have to do is point a gun at every family and simply require them to have three kids. If they were able to force thousands of families to undergo forced abortions to accomplish 100 days without birth they can probably do the direct opposite.
@@stephenlee1664 how are they supposed to point a gun at every family?
@@Windja69 Every Saturday, all married couples below 35 are required to attend marriage re-education meeting where films are shown. Food & alcohol are aplenty. Near end of night, couples are shown to stalls so they can discuss and act out what they have learned. Supervisors will monitor the stalls and if husbands cannot perform his duties, a willing volunteer will take his place. The Fatherland will be prosperous with tiny people in no time.
I ve always been finding it completely insane how modern people underestimate demographic policy and how few we see about that in medias.
Western media is ideologically marxist and they are trying to bring about the collapse of capitalism.
Hence why everything they do has an agenda and here is the thing most countries media is based on western media so they will follow suit.
@@bighands69 I think , it s recklessness. Just recklessness of "mighty, intelligent" people who control agenda more than anythinge else. We are about to pay a lot for that. So, this is the way, obviously.....
Japan is a prime example...no immigration...booming population and productivity in the 1900’s...and now they are literally destroying their currency and don’t even care.
@@bighands69 are you high?
@@bighands69 LMAOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
This reminds me of something an Asian friend once said to me in a mild rage (in response to him graduating and his parents immediately asking him about a wife)
"How did you expect me to go from study, study, study to wife in one go? All my life has been 'no girls, only work' and now you flip the script? How is that supposed to work?"
So yeah, birth rates in east asian countries aren't doing so well, and haven't for decades in some cases
True
India fixes this problem with arranged marriages. If you cant find a girl, no worries your family will find one for you.
true!
Stephen He did a video on this. 😁
Now no job to do if u know China now unemployment rate …
“Stocks”? “Retirement Funds”? Expensive “vacations”? What are these strange things you speak of, wizard?
It’s all boomer talk to me
Things we can only dream of
@@TotemicClaw4228 to be fair, anyone can do stocks.
@Nastasiya i said anyone can, not anyone should.
@Nastasiya Most people should invest.
China: Runs out of people
Everyone Else: Well, that's ironic
I sort of support this one child policy. There are just too many people in China. A lot of issues can't be solved and new problems emerge everyday because of its population. THe government and the people made a mistake early on to boom the population and now everyone should pay for it. Technology will make it easier for fewer people to support the aging group - they have to. It is better than having the same amount of people or more. The earth is not that resourceful to support 1.4 billion people for ever. When I heard that by the end of the this century, China's population will decrease to current's 50%, I am so happy about it. Unfortunately I can live to see that day but 6-700 million is more than enough.
@@weixin9270 sure but then China can’t be worlds power.
@japanese 101✇ They do actually, just not the kind that could support a large military and a large economy that could be spent on imperialistic policies.
@@henrik3775 I'm sure he doesn't care about that as much
Sir and/or Madam, your post made me laugh!
Dude this rules. Fascinating and insightful
Nice insight.
Agree
Yes
Your channel rules.
Ahh captain stede, aargh.
As an American who lived in China for six years, I must say - your B-roll game is spot on. Children studying all day then practicing piano, the parents working their asses off, while the grandpa plays xiangqi and grandma does tai chi in the park. This is day-to-day Chinese life in a nutshell.
Can you imagine If the US had 1.4 billion people rather than 330 million it would be a polluted deforested mess like China and India ,needing imports to feed itself.
China has as many cars on the road as the US has people! www.rfidtires.com/how-many-cars-are-in-china.html and puts more C02 in the air than North America and Europe put together.
"practicing piano"
its the real reason why the Chinese economy will collapse - a whole generation growing up with no real non-academic skills other than playing piano LOL
@@Crashed131963 so, another hatred opinion toward China again？Why not calculate Co2 per capita ?
@F C this is from economicshelp.org
“The biggest absolute emissions come from China and the United States. In terms of CO2 emissions per capita, China is ranked only ranked 47th, at 7.5 metric tonnes per capita.”
@@Crashed131963 (1) China is investing in EV very aggressively, much money so than in the west. Chinese startups has been producing increasingly affordable, common, and good EVs.
(2) Europe and North America avoid pollution by shipping out their trash and move high pollution industry out of the country. How does this justify when they are blaming the very country they ship their trash and industry to for pollution?
"China is running out of people.....
...sponsored by CuriosityStream."
Dammit CuriosityStream!
Tomorrow's headline: "CuriousityStream taken offline by massive cyberattack" 🇨🇳👨💻👨💻👩💻
@@doujinflip Naw.
That´s not even original there is a russian guy (caspia report) that made a video monthe ago with the same title.
@@kitnascimento0 CaspianReport is Azeri
@@KungKras REally? I don´t like that guy too much
his china "will run out of people" is pure clickbait to take advantage of all the anti-china campain going on
I refuse by the way to open that kind of videos yet they are poping up all the time on my feed
Anyone watching it today when China announced 3 child policy. This is quite reinforcing on the analysis done in the video above.
Thing is, he describes china a stagnent nation about to collapse, not a dynamic nation with a competent government that knows what is happening
@@zaraiwzara While the government isn’t that bad they definitely took their time to introduce this policy. By now it’s too late and the culture has already revolved around having one child and won’t change for a while.
@@RoflcopterLamo the chinese are not shy to take inspiration from the fall of the soviet union, and stagnation of japan, they know what is going on and are ready to improve the conditions of people who have children, i agree it is a little late, but they plan way more ahead then western societies
@@zaraiwzara Gonna have to disagree because it literally took China the infamous “Great Leap Forward “ which caused mass famine and at least 20 million deaths for them to even come close to developed country status before they were just a backwater agricultural country with their only good resource being their population. Clearly Mao did not see that coming. The people before Mao were even worse cause they just let the country stagnant.Or ya know the whole gunning down people at a certain square.Not the best solution.
@@RoflcopterLamo The cost of "development" for western european countries was the exploitation of the americas and africa, the cost of "development" for the united states was the expansion of a english colony into mexico and indigenous territories which caused a genocide which is still happening today, the cost of industrialisation for england and the united states was the disgusting situation that the industrial workers found themselves in, and the even worse condition that the enslaved indians and africans found themselves throught the british empire, that said empire which killed dozens of millions of indians, china had become a agricultural country because of western economies forcefully pumping cheap products into the qing dinasty, which turned the qing from one of the greatest economies of their time to a nation which any domestic industries and businesses could not thrive due to cheap western products, they are only getting back where they belong, if you avaliate china's development by wertern standards, they will never be such country, even when such a shithole as the us is considered one, and what the fuck does this have to do with the planing of the chinese government? the chinese political elite thinks in terms of decades and centuries, the american one in terms of weeks, a country in which its citizens refuse to defend the nation and the state and only think about their private situation, and the elite thinks not for progress and the good of the people, but for expansion of power, deserves to be subjugated.
China: makes one child policy
Korea, whose fertility rate has already been at 1.1: laughs, slowly starts to sob
No, Korea birth rate is 0.8
@@ribos2762 ahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha how much precentage Korean childern mixed race? If just 5% did not make lot different
Taiwan has actually 1.07. East asia has a real problem with babys.
east asian countries by western standards are very much conservative yet somehow people in the comments still manage to blame feminism or "sjws" for their low birth rate. I'm betting these kind of people has had a hard time trying to find a partner
China currently has a surplus male population of approximately 45 million mostly under the age of 25 years old. Translation: soldiers for conscription or un-married men, which do you prefer >
I think I found my new favorite description of babies 6:48 "little money eating machines."
Oof
Can confirm.
machines that consume money to produce poop
@@Duck-wc9de a worthy addition
mine was the useless part
"Assuming it takes two people to make a baby"
Me: I request elaboration
Please, no! He'll talk another 20 minutes!
Haha XD
Joseph has left the room.
Clearly a bigoted assumption against pod babies.
Well, the calculations are based on monogamy, otherwise, one man, or one woman can have multiple offspring with multiple partners, making their number contribution to the older generation less than one.
Humans aren't really monogamous, so it's not a realistic calculation.
5:45 detailed demographics
9:00 projections of demography
10:30 pre and post industrialization
13:00 Demography in Chinas future
14:20 population/Chinese vs WisconsinMaddison Uni claims its 1.18
15:30 high skill jobs and less manufacturing
17:50 lowest birth rate in recent memory
18:20 demography in Japan
20:00 it’s similar in America and although the guys analysis its locked behind nebula, I assume the US suffers less from demographics due to high immigration providing labor
The main difference is that the US is going to shed a lot of its aging population soon, had several hundred thousand immigrants in a year versus chinas singular thousand, and even still the birthrate is somehow higher in the US (even if you go by the questionable official rate from China). Plus the US has been supporting significant aging populations for a while already, we aren't going to be hit as hard as this spike continues.
The USA is literally going through this right now, Babyboomers have become a massive burden on the economy but the US only has to hold out for another 10 or so years before they start fading significantly. The US will then have 30+ years before the next spike starting ramping up.
Something that both countries are starting to experience at the moment though is male skewed births. Every demographic under the age of 38 has an increasingly significant male bias. This is about to bite many countries in the ass hard, as we can already see by the rising incel movement.
@@Outwardpd Yep, high immigration+extreme outsourcing of manufacturing and Chinas reliance on their manufacturing centres make the US suffer less from demographic changes.
It does seem China is going to outsource manufacturing to Africa and South East Asia much more in the future so perhaps the demographic effects will be less damaging than we think.
@@Outwardpd Ditto on Immigration. China has none. Welfare is not-existent. Housing is unaffordable.
As an Indian, I am fascinated by China. We existed for so long. Hope we dont get into unnecessary conflict. I dont want war.
Edit: May have started a comment war. Dont go there.
India needs a good dictator..
Not really though. Thats a stupid way of thinking.
It’s appears that quite a bit of anti-China fake news in India and YT. Usually only the Five Eye countries diving unfounded misinformation on China. Do people understand the differences?
You see in youtube people have a incentive to produce controversial and sensationalized videos. It would bring more views, would spur channel growth, subscriber count would increase, which means ad money. Plus China is one country, where silicon valley app isnt present. So that means a lot is unknown and people are curious. So theres a market for sensationalized China related videos. Fact checking or debunking of false calims doesnt get the same traction.
Btw Chinese medias like Global Times too engages in anti India narrative. Its all a case of big corporation trying to curry favour with govts with "nationalistic narrative".
You won’t get war. In fact by the end of this decade India will probably be in a stronger position that the PRC
As someone born in China, I've been observing, learning about, and thinking about this problem for quite a while. At the end of the day, a shrinking workforce seems to be less of a problem to China than the burden of taking care of the incoming wave of retirees. When it comes to workforce, many people overlook the reality that much of China's population is still tied to low productivity agriculture. Urbanization rate in China is about 60% compared to that of 80%+ in the US. It's a reserve of workforce that can be unleashed with further adaption of industrialized farming and poverty alleviation efforts. That combined with automation and better educated workers means China has more workforce to give. But the large number of incoming retirees is not something the country can avoid. I would not be surprised if some sort of sacrifice will be demanded of these retirees in the coming years.
oh boy when auto mation comes how is china going to give real income to ppl
What it seems to me (from afar) that Korea did was simply abandon the generation that made the country wealthy, I hope China doesn't do that.
@@trackingthecoreofstuffandm2310 easy, they tax the shit out of companies using mass automation and then redistribute the wealth to citizens in the form of a universal income. They’re an authoritarian communist government. They can do things like that.
@@Zei33 you know every ifiicial i corrupt a hell
The retirement age will bave to be raised.
As a young Chinese, I said that most of them are worried about getting married and having children, mainly due to the high housing price and the cost of education
sounds like in the rest of the world really.
@@lubu2960 It may be difficult for people from other countries to understand. This only happened in the three East Asian countries, China, Japan and South Korea. The social culture here is full of extreme pressure and competition. This is also the main reason for the low birth rate and the aging population.
@@butterfly7562 but I don't think it is, all developed countries are suffering from housing crisis, low birth rates and aging population but they have been opened to a lot of inmigration. Does China have a lot of inmigrants?
@@lubu2960 The immigrants of the world do not like to go to China because China is not a developed country. This country has a large population and high employment pressure. Immigrants could not find good jobs in the china, so immigrants will only like to go to more developed countries, such as the West country.
@@pykejack6198 but developed countries are hard to get in, it is easier to go developing countries that is stable and growing
You're one of the first TH-camrs to explain this well. Nicely done
Agreed. I've been watching his channel since I discovered it an hour ago xD
@@fernandomaluenda4226 Edward Dutton would explain it better as he will go where these mild takes refuse to go. The finger pointing at china misses the point, they can recover as they haven't made the mistakes the west has yet, gorilla glue girl and saint floyd have 11 children between them, the wests fertility rate isn't better in any way, its far far worse in the saddest way possible.
@@churblefurbles Interesting. I'll have to look into Edward Dutton. Thanks for the reference. How could China recover from an aging population? What kind of mistakes regarding an aging population has the west made that China hasn't yet? I see Edward Dutton has a lot of videos to check out. If you are referencing a particular video I'd love to see it if you have the link :)
@@fernandomaluenda4226 As generations pass opportunities open up, shortage of workers creates better conditions as seen after the black plague when peasants gained power against the nobility. This only works under a closed and cohesive system, not a system under endless invasion, disrupted pandas don't breed. Some traditional values remain in china, filial piety not endless individualism, the leadership are practically minded, and believe in the welfare of their own citizens unlike ours who believe in misplaced guilt based original sin, a distorted legacy having shed christianity. As for his videos, Its mostly evolutionary psychology and examining modern selection pressures, I don't remember an exact one, but there are more of his videos on bitchute than youtube because of censorship, on here you can only promote the wrong things.
9:13 - oof, as a Nigerian, this was painful. And yes, the main problem is the utterly corrupt government
yup
Heads up.
Nigerians are very resourceful, their early adoption of crypto will create an African Renaissance , look hopefully to the future
That's a shame, because your country has so much untapped potential. If the US can get its immigration policy simplified and streamlined, I hope more Nigerians consider immigrating here.
I don't know where he got Nigeria pyramid from. All internet results show extremely wide base of age pyramid and recent statistics paper projects higher Nigeria population than China in the future.
"what culture will develop in a nation with very negative dating prospect for men"
Me: "reddit'
Or worse, violent criminals and political instability coming soon 😬
As someone who has been in Chinese internet spaces. r/incel and r/karen is the norm in their internet spaces.
Meeting actual people? Everyone is okay like meeting people in every other country.
Meeting people in internet spaces? Especially about political matters, just turn that computer off, man, it's not worth it.
Nazis
@@madisont3123 considering what's happening with the Uighurs, it's yesterday's news
The incel phenomenon makes sense when you think about it. Why would men want to contribute to a society where they both see no gain from it and don't consider it a society worth investing in? Not surprising that hypergamous societies end up being more violent.
'we are talking about the number of unique humans'
identical twins: ...
N-word
Fuck em!
@@rockyrockyroad 3 minutes ago
Ah, this is why the English language needs different adjectives for the two kinds of "same".
Pareil and même, gleich and selbe
@@israellai meme? where?
I love how every time it shows Chinese seniors, when it does it shows them doing Thai Chi xD
🤣
They aren't gonna do falun gong in camera I suppose
Either that or Xiangqi (chinese chess)
🤣
@@yevaka What do you mean "do" Falun Gong. Falun Gong is an organization, not a practice. They meditate and do Taichi like lots of Chinese.
Meanwhile, in nearby Japan: *"Eyyy, uh, this is yer boi Abe... Here's some government-sponsored anime/manga encouraging you to MAKE BABIES PLS!"*
I don't know why but this made me imagine some Japanese politician standing at a podium giving a speech about the declining birthrate. In the middle of a sentence he shakes the papers on the podium and screams "Why won't you **** more?!?"
Abe hasn't been in charge for some time. It's his lackey Suga who's PM now.
Sees multiple tentacles...
@@unclefester1840 *Hey, I've seen this one before!*
Seeing doujin are getting new regulations regarding censorship (no more censor bar I think), your statement aren't wrong
China: make 1 child policy.
People of china actually follow that policy.
Also china: make pikachu face at demographic disaster.
it is believed if they didn't do it back then, the public system might just overclock from both the adult, teen, and the newborn altogether
@@mrskoous9159 wrong go too jail and government kill babies.
One child policy did damage but the "great leap forward" and "Cultural Revolution" did probably more damage long term.
@@BeKindToBirds The Cultural Revolution and it's consequences have been a disaster to the chinese races.
Actually in initial years people didn't follow so the CCP came with harsher policies like imprisonment. This scared people and hence strictly limited to 1 child. The sad thing is, they are scared even today.
''what does a generation of young people think when they face far more challenging prospects than did their parents?''
We call 'em millennials and blame em for literally anything
Those millenials, no one likes them. They are all new and shiny.
It was exactly the same for "generation X".
@@eldahalas7015 They are not shiny, they appear irritating and jagged.
old women like me think all the new shiny people are just delightful even though we envy them their youth. youth flies by; DON'T WASTE IT.
@El Dimos Karam "Chad" zoomers in their safe places.
The part he misses here is the mandatory retirement age in China. For men it's 60, for women it's either 50 or 55. That amplifies the problem.
no it's not mandatory
It's mandatory for companies to follow, not the person. If they want, they can keep working. If they want to retire, the company has to let them.
Though you don't see it a lot, sometimes doctors here work past the retirement age, but the majority of the workforce in China is manual labor. Those guys can't wait to retire and there would be a huge uproar if they weren't allowed to after 40+ years of grueling labor. That's where the problem comes from. The majority of the workforce will opt to retire the minute they hit that age. Working here, for the most part, sucks.
@@atari460 That's a sight of relief. I was shocked that the Chinese government would force its people to retire.
So Mandatory I was asked to renew my contract for a further 6 months when I was 65. But that was in the other China. Not the one reported on in the west. When will you people wake up to the crap you are feed my he media? China has changed a lot since all you keyboard experts were there!
@@RickBlaine Idk something smells fishy on this one. Something tells me you're not 65+
Expensive, cry a lot and quite dumb.
I identify myself as a 27 year-old baby.
I am a 26 year old baby
Ok Borrower ;)
Ironic how they only propagandize China having all these social problems yet most other countries have worse crime, development, and growth already despite all their supposed gender balance and yOuTh dEmOgRaPhIcS.
@@tritium1998 ok and? Atleast in Austria I can shit over our Corrupt Leaders as much as I want :P
@@tritium1998 being incompetent doesn't mean you cannot criticize other incompetent people. We should all learn to receive criticism so that we can improve and grow.
Next video on Wendover Productions:
The logistics of Chinese population control
POLYMATTER
Lol
Lol
对韭当割 人生几何
Next video on RealLifeLore: How Toyota Corolla sales will be affected by China’s ageing
"Babies: Expensive, Cry a lot, Quite dumb" - PolyMatter
Basically millennial views on having child.
It’s ok.
@@josearmandoguerrerochairez3454 dude, millennials are starting to be 40 years old by now.
I mean, he's not wrong.
Also ::: CCP: =)
Here after China declares the “third child policy” that permits, if not forcefully, the family to have three children.
However, it might be too late, as the video suggested.
It's still optional though, which means it will have little effect. Eventually the children will be mandatory by law.
Mass immigration successfully solves the problem of low fertility. Look at Canada: its fertility rate is 1.47 and still they have doubled their population in the last 60 years.
@@ОнуфрийНечепуренко However, I don’t think there will be mass immigration to China shortly.
First, the Chinese language is hard to learn as a second language. Compare to English 26 alphabets and 2000 vocabularies; an average person needs to remember at least 1000 alphabets and 2000 to 3000 vocabularies to have an essential Chinese ability to read and write.
Second, China isn't as big as you think. Although China is around the same size as America, 99% of the population is located in less than 50% of its territory. The unequal development between the city and the country results in the insane housing price compared to the average salaries.
Thirdly, China isn't as open as America, Canada, and some other European countries due to the singularity of ethnicity in China. More than 90% of the people in China are Han Chinese. Making it less tolerant and welcoming toward immigrants, especially when the purpose of immigration is to seek job opportunities, which will hurt the locals.
Fourth, although China's growth in the economy is undoubtedly exceptional in the past 40 years, the personal wealth in China is still far less than that in developed countries. Making the stakes in working in China isn't as good as working in another country, especially for the professional workers who have more choice to work in different countries. Also, even if China is going to have fewer young people gradually. It is still very competitive in terms of job opportunities in China compare to some other countries.
Fifth, and I think the most important one is the system; China is still under the rules of a very authoritarian and oppressive regime. Making the foreign workers have less security than other developed countries, especially those who move out of their native country because of political suppression.
In conclusion, I don't think there will be mass immigration to China shortly. Still, everything might change in the future. However, China’s policies are mainly focused on the development of decades. I don't see a major change in China’s policy that will significantly boost immigration to China. Thus, making the challenge of demographic more unsolvable than other challenges in China.
@SilveR LancE Did you reply to the wrong person? I didn't mention immigration.
How can you force people to have children?
Let's just force everyone to only have one child in a country where there is a massive preference towards having a son over a daughter, what could go wrong?
It’s easy to criticize the policy for all its flaws now, but it did dramatically reduce China’s outrageous population growth. My grandparents and great-grandparents had anywhere from 5 to 11 children per household because of old cultural norms and lack of knowledge on contraceptions. That is simply unsustainable as land, food, and other resources are finite. Fast forward to today, the TFR in many African countries are above 5 due to the same reasons I mentioned. And what did they get in return? Being the poorest continent? Having the highest rate of poverty and starvation? High TFR is obviously not the only reason, but it’s a significant one nonetheless.
While I acknowledge China’s one-child policy was far from perfect, I would take gender imbalance over starving children any day. Moreover, the preference for boys is not unique to China. It’s simply an old-school and sexist view on gender that exists in nearly every civilization. With time, however, attitudes shift as people become educated. This preference for boys is definitely decreasing in China as parents become more educated and progressive.
@@edwink1467 Men are seen as workers and more important industrially. Women are seen as cooks and homeworkers, more important for making men.
Yeah its ch
@@edwink1467 you are trivializing the slaughter of untold millions of babies...
@@finish_my_projects No he's not. No one should jump to that conclusion based on what he wrote (unless that's all you care about). He's simply pointing out how, at the time, such a policy was seen as necessary given how out-of-control China's population growth had become and how it did, in a way, do its job by slowing that growth down. Obviously, it's perfectly fair to ask "yeah, but" and "at what cost," but it's too easy to overlook why it took effect in the first place.
@@finish_my_projects No he didn’t. He stated fact.
12:00 "at the end of this century, its total population will be cut in half"
*THANOS INTENSIFIES*
I don't get it.
There is a more crucial problem: with falling fertility rates, Jonathan Swift's restaurants will need to increase prices due to falling supply. This could have serious consequences for the fine dining industry
Very tacky, but voted up. Especially relevant to China in some special ways.
Hey fine dining can suck it. As long as the take out places are open I’m ok. Plus, gives people motivation to become better cooks on their own. Fine dining is for snobs
Perhaps that's why China is so interested in Africa... plenty to import from here!
@@dustyjackson7584 bruh
Underrated comment for sure
34 million single men.
So the Chinese market would be the Adult entertainment industry's wet dream.
It's already happening in America where ~85 percent of men are not sexually active. Our birth rate is pretty low as a consequence, though not as low as Europe's.
The underground AV market is insane in China.
@@One.Zero.One101 Not with a strong underground sex industry. That has been increasing steadily.
😂😂😂
@@CountArtha There are 5 grown ass men at my work past the age of 25 and they're still virgins. It's sad reall.
First video by anyone I've seen in a while that's not just: "How China will take over the entire world without even trying"
You follow pro china channels? most videos from Western media are also about how China collapse. Predicted 1000 out 0 collapses since 1945.
@@animewatch4213 No I actually follow channels like Laowhy86 and SerpentZA. But often the average world politics, geography and economics channels will boast how good China is supposedly doing.
It's ironic because Polymatter is one of so few channels in TH-cam not resolutely Anti-China
@@richhornie7000 I really quite like it that way too. It's nice seeing a very neutral perspective
@Pajeet Patel There's the fact that China is doing well in many areas and then there's what many news articles and youtubers say which is often overblown like "Xi Jinping will practically rule the world by 2030"
You missed the obvious speedy solution: The "One Grandparent" policy.
Ooh that's dark.
It's called Covid-19
@PW - 10ZZ 917528 The Woodlands SS trump isn't president anymore and if anything boomers were his support base so why would he want to reduce the amount of potential voters supporting him?
@PW - 10ZZ 917528 The Woodlands SS so it was trump not governors like como who put elderly at risk by putting covid patients into th nursing homes. So trump is responsible for 15,000 deaths cause como said to put them in nursing homes. While trump provided the virtually unused javit center, or navy medical ship that was less the 20% full?
Ah yes. Late turn abortions
The production quality being pumped out on this channel is just insane
Huh? The graphs are decent, the rest is just stock footage that anyone can buy.
@@TheUrbanEpicure that's not true lmfao
fancy graphic but the information is pretty barebond. copy and paste from old articles and videos.
The information in this video is basically recycled from Peter Zeihan (along with a number of other geo strategists). Nothing ground breaking here..
@@Mikey-Moto people are really impressed by cute graphics and effects. The average person is really stupid
Interestingly Japan who's know for low birth/fertility rate still has the highest birth/fertility rate out of east asian countries with 1.4
It is fake news there is mongolia at 2.6
@@АрсаланНанзатов-и4ь Mongolia isnt apart of china nor Japan.
@@youwouldntclickalinkonyout6236 They said East Asian countries; Mongolia is in East Asia.
@@АрсаланНанзатов-и4ь Someone got a fact slightly wrong? FAKE NEWS!!!!!!!😡
@@von3689 Mongolia is more associated with central Asia.
As someone who was born and raised in China, I can say that the trend of aging population will likely continue in China if the gov doesn’t intervene. There’s been a significant shift in attitude toward marriage and child-bearing amongst young women since the implementation of the one-child policy, with more and more young women gravitating towards higher education, careers and self-fulfillment, many are feeling reluctant to get married and have children as early as their parents did, citing work stress, the high cost of raising children and a general lack of interest in family/domestic duty. The fertility rate will continue to drop - that is if the gov doesn’t intervene. But given what we know about the Chinese gov - they likely will. After all, in the 50s/60s Mao did heavily promote large families size & condemn/outlaw abortion and contraceptives - which led to the population explosion hence why China needed the one-child policy in the first place. It’s sad to think one day these educated and empowered young women might be forced/brainwashed to become baby making machines.
I heard that alot of young men in china are becoming more feminine like south korea.
It only makes sense, it is what happened in the rest of the world without the one child policy. This is probably going to be a large challenge for China in the future
@@pepega7015 Why do you care if people are getting more feminine traits? I’m pretty sure a Pepe the frog profile pic isn’t the greatest indicator of masculinity
@@quentin9287 #rekt
@@quentin9287 why you so butthurt
Polymatter: "During our 30s and 40s we reach the peak of our earning potential."
My wallet: ...
exactly, and that's what "potential" means instead of "facts"
Dang that’s kind of depressing to think about too. In a video game you can repeat and try to do better, but irl once you miss the window, you miss the only chance in life. Then your body decays and you die.
This happened 5th time in this month. Some one quoted a portion of the video and while I was reading it I heard the same thing on the video. Is anyone else experiencing this dejavu?
I feel that. I done goofed in my 20s. Well, better late than never to take your career seriously?... XD ... :'-(
@@e7venjedi I'm in my early 20's and it seems that I've graduated at such inconvenient times. Idk what I'm doing lol. At this point, idk actually what's worth doing
This analysis could work for Japan, where you have all of the population integrated into the modern economy. But China is different, China still has a massive population of poor people in the countryside. Their situation now is rather unique because of their scale, and those internal differences. Japan only stopped growing when it caught up to the west economically, if something similar happens to China they'll be much bigger in absolute terms just because of their scale...
The population in the countryside isn't nearly as poor as you would think. Actually, rural China is doing quite well.
@@dirremoire I'm sorry, I didn't mean to say they are miserable in rural China. Just saying they don't need external immigrants to replace population growth in urban China since they can still count on internal migration from their countryside for a few more decades at least.
@@dirremoire China has been known to give 1 cow to each person in rural communities in order to kickstart industry soooo...
@@dirremoire Rural China isn't doing well at all. While China is bragging about eliminating extreme poverty, they are using numbers that very poor countries use (some of the poorest in the world).
To make this claim, the Chinese government uses a poverty line of about $2.25 a day, in 2011 prices and adjusting for purchasing power. The World Bank believes that a threshold of $1.90 a day is appropriate for countries with per capita incomes of less than $1,000 or so, such as Ethiopia. For lower-middle-income countries such as India-with per capita incomes between $1,000 and about $4,000-it recommends a poverty line of $3.20 a day. For upper-middle-income countries like China, it reckons that a reasonable poverty line is $5.50 a day. In other words, the Chinese government uses a poverty line appropriate for a country making the transition from low- to lower-middle-income, even though China is 10 times as wealthy.
www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2021/01/25/deep-sixing-poverty-in-china/
If China caught up well developed country gdp per capital as Japan, It will be 4 times size economic of US. It depends future technologies, we might not need as many ppls as usual.
Very well analysed. I am Chinese and used to think the rise of China to the top was unstoppable. Now I see only a window of opportunity from now to 2030. If China cannot be No.1 then, it is likely that she would have lost that opportunity forever.
Honestly I think it’s inevitable that China will gain hegemony over the eastern hemisphere, but whether they remain the number two or become the number one super power remains to be seen. I think the US will maintain hegemony over the Western Hemisphere, at the very least North America and Western Europe will remain in the USA’s sphere of influence.
@@JollyOldCanuck idk dude, i would say that probable if they had India on their side. China has pissed of a lot of it's neighbor's including Vietnam, India, Japan, Taiwan and even Russia.
it's too bad the countries of the world care more about being 1st than being better than they were yesterday. There's so much we could do besides a space race/nuclear arms race/aircraft carrier race...
To me China has reached the limits of it's system. Now that Xi, having made himself president for life, a charlaton has taken over and increases government intrusion in people's lives China's sucesses arein jeopardy. If Dengs model had been followed things would be different.
Peter Zeihan makes an analysis & commentary on why China will never become a global superpower it so badly craves. Demographic collapse, dependence on natural resources & commodities from non-friendly/hostile countries, potential economic collapse (housing and credit crunch) and weak military (esp. navy).
China, for most of my life (50 years), has had a one child policy, and I wondered how that would play out eventually.
This is a very interesting video. Very interesting. Thank you.
I thought China's one child policy dates back to the 1970's? ? ? ?
@@JohnSmith-eo5sp yes that checks out. 2020 - 1970s = +-50
the one child policy was not applied draconic ally, dozen of millions of couple would has more than 1 child, without the government intervene,
I think, since the policy has lasted so long, it will be very hard to get rid of in the populous, its imprinted in it culture now.
1 child was a temporary policy for the big cities to prevent births of poor people since rich people could pay a fine to have children in the big cities, in rural areas you could have 3 children and smaller cities 2.
Heyyy I made a video on the same topic a while back. While one child policy has certainly played a role, the industrialization and development of China is the major factor responsible for this. The increased cost of living and working parents are some of the factors which force parents to have lesser and lesser children
Cool channel man
I watched your video. It was pretty amazing
dope username
Honestly Chinese birth rates are said to be extreme by people but in actual fact they are better than Japan, Germany or South Korea. This idea that China is in a uniquely bad position is quite inaccurate.
I don't think it was claimed it was uniquely bad. But at least for Germany and other similar western countries, they have more immigration to compensate. That's why the us is predicted to grow at a faster rate than China in the next century
Some perspective: most Chinese youths (35 and under) are actually seeing the shrinking birthrate as a great sign of hope. The country is moving past the stage of labor intensive industrialization, but much of its corporate world is still stuck in the old mind set of relying on plenty supply of cheap and quality labor, resulting in long working hours, toxic work place culture, and other exploitative practices. The corporations' assumption is that "if you don't do it, there are plenty of others who are qualified to take your place". In some way it is quite similar to early 20th century US prior to the labor movement. Given how labor movement is not really an option in China, the younger generation is taking a more obvious route: having fewer kids or no kids at all, so that the corporation will be eventually forced to treat all their employees better when they dont have many to choose from. In some sense this is already working. A fun saying on the Chinese internet: "population dividend means the population is the dividend, not dividend for the population".
So it is, some are worried about it, while others (mostly workers) are cheering 😂
What are your thoughts on the emerging crisis in China (mortgage payment strikes and systemic risk from fractional-reserve banking) and it's likely impact on emerging markets?
In a word scary. Because ultimately the global market is so interlinked and the world has been decoupling from China. This creates massive economic stress and a scenario no model or econometric analysis would have predicted.
@@sebastianspiegler5801 Great question, I think it's a really interesting area and so many factors in play right now. I wouldn't let any macro news affect the way I invest at all, otherwise you'd probably never invest a single penny - but that being said, it's a reminder to be well diversified!
@@sebastianspiegler5801 There is only bad news out there but yet stock prices are up which shows that even though the market is meant to be forward looking it is clear the string results are the only things they are interested in. some bad market news will come out and the bear will return. But then again who knows, we could all be riding that bull "to the moon"
@Chloe Baker The stock market is definitely the most awkward teenager with the wildest mood swings! I searchon Katherine using her full name and found her reachout-page, read through her resume, educational background, qualifications and it was really impressive. She is a fiduciary who will act in my best interest. So, I booked a session with her
Cool !
I'm 60 and worn out from working all my life.
Had a great life and it won't be long before I'm ready for "The big dirt nap !"
Best of luck to the new generations coming because I'm sure technology will see a bright and happy future for everyone....
Meanwhile.....take care everyone !!
Thank you for your dedication to life!
I have a different view. I have lived at the pinnacle period of human achievement. Its going to be all downhill for centuries to come, until everything is reduced to barbarism and begins again. Life today is heinous compared to what it was 20 or 30 years ago, its getting worse very fast...and technology is the reason. The only thing I will miss if I died today is the schadenfreude I would draw from seeing everything collapse.
@@alexspareone3872
Gee...I bet your fun at partys...
The skys falling since time begun
Only if you want it to...
@@charliepearce8767 Why are the Mad Max, Terminator and Snake Plisskin movies among the most popular ever? Did the 100 million killed in ww2 "want it to"...you live in a rose tinted world I fear.
@@alexspareone3872 High school musical was pretty popular too but I don't see people looking at that going "Yup, sign of the times, people are gonna start randomly bursting out into song and dance."
There are countless times in history where people thought they were at the peak but were proven wrong over and over. Sure, one day someone will adopt your bleak view and be right but it'll be by chance rather than any great vision.
I get it, having a dreary view of the world means you can say "I told you so" if it does turn bad and never get your hopes up, exposing yourself to the disappointment. You miss out on a lot of life that way though. I hope that, as you grow up, you'll realise its better to hope and try for more than to give in and let your life fall into a darkness of your own creation.
UNITED NATIONS: “Child slave labor is now outlawed.”
CHINA: “Fine then. No more children.”
AFRICA: "Hello Ladies."
@Ksthy Simmons i 100% blame africa for that
[i’m a black american male for context]
@Ksthy Simmons the answer to that is absolutely NO GOVERNMENT steps in and aids children in need unless they themselves are predatory & have a use for those children. my view point is that the african countries that caved-in to china’s request for their children, should have simply said “no”.
@Ksthy Simmons What are you talking about? Who colonized Africa for hundreds of years?
90% of African territory was independent until 1870s and European empires started collapsing by 1945. Until then Europeans only dotted the coastline with ports here and there (with a notable exception of South Africa).
Incidentally, Africa spent least time being colonized among all continents (except Europe - if you dont count Europeans conquering each other as an equivalent act).
In fact, modern African states are now independent about as long as the time they spent as colonies. The European involvment in African slave trade (Atlantic triangle) did last for hundreds of years though, so you maybe mixed those two things up. European involvment in African slave trade essentially began for two reasons:
1) Ottomans, trough conquest, monopolized the Black Sea slave trade, which used to be Genoan business.
2) Discovery of Americas and native population dying due to smallpox
The American countries on the other hand, will have to be independent for another 100 years to be independent for the same amount of time as they were colonized.
Careful man or TH-cam might ban u
"Oldest median ages: 2. Japan 4. Germany 5. Italy"
*HMMMMMMMMM*
Lol
Gonna be honest, I had to read that twice to get it lol
The conclusion is clear: fascism elongates lifespan. Now I know what to vote in the next elections, tnx!!
Actually, it looks like the conclusion is that fascism crushes the traditional views of marriage and family.
@@FLPhotoCatcher Losing a war does.
This is an excellent video, and I'm using it a lot in my debates. Well done, PolyMatter
China still have a lot of farmers. They don't retire and just working on their land till death. It is a important aspect that you dont consider.（400 million people in China do not have pension insurance because they are not worker）.For me my grandfather is 80 years old and still farming on his land. My dad is a worker and the real problem will come at the time when my dad’ generation retire and it is about 10 years later.
That's the Generation he is mainly referring. Your dad's generation. Because there won't be enough of the younger population to care for them.
Also,as people get old and retire....there will be less consumers ...that’s bad for the nation economy including the government...they will lose a lot money from consumers tax and business taxes
They’re old on the farms, but they work until they drop, since Junior has run off to the city, so there is some productivity value squeezed out of the unfortunate rural aged. And they are already used to a bowl of rice a day and crappy (cheap) health care.
About 25 % of the Chinese workforce work in agriculture vs. maybe 2 % in Germany. That’s a lot of potential for people to work in other areas, especially when you consider that China is advancing rapidly in technology.
@@daniel_berlin food is currency. You can't eat an iPhone.
17:44
Very true. Humans SUCK at solving long term, relatively invisible problems. Jakarta's sinking issue comes to mind. Vox did a pretty good video on it.
Vox is very biased though, especially against two things, Conservatives and China
@@richhornie7000 I know, but I don't see how that's relevant for a video on Indonesia
@@richhornie7000 Vox is definitely biased but their videos are just so good lmao
@@nithinsrivatsa4726 If they are biased against one thing, what makes you sure they aren't about other stuff? Why trust them at all?
@HMS Blackprice I'm making that point precisely, that all media is biased and untrustworthy. Learn to read first
China: Why is my population shrinking?!
Europe, America & Russia: First time?
@P Ciprian yes, also propaganda. In Europe in school they teach you that it's bad have children because imaginery "bad" climate change. Lack knowledge and common sense is alarming in Europe right now.
@@fraided88 Hey, CFS levels are falling fast here in the States too. Common Fucking Sense is becoming a dusty museum piece, only quietly discussed as ancient lore and mythology.
You forgot korea, Singapore, hong kong, taiwan and most importantly japan.
Now it's China's time to face high inflation, high cost of living, high unemployment, homelessness problem, housing crisis and decreasing population.
I forget to add high debt, high taxes.
A second point I want to add is due to the high cost of raising children, a lot of people are reluctant to have children. That’s why relaxing the policy to 2 children per family is not having much effect. China needs to improve its severe inequality in resources distribution and provide better support for child care to be able to start turning the problem around. But both of those issues will also take years to solve. If inequality is not addressed and welfare cannot improve, we might have a nation with a dwindling young population who in turn is having even less children per household than the previous generation.
That and societies have become accustomed to fewer children.
@@Sedna063 yes. The 2020 census result is out. I still see some people saying "each couple to have only one children" in the social media reactions.
In short, free market capitalism fucks over countries like Marx realized because eith consolidates all the wealth in the hands of a greedy few who now can’t sustain their lifestyles as nobody will continue to want to be exploited
Not to mention that valuing men over women also compounds that problem. If your society values families with few children and likes boys more than girls then you're gonna have a generation of incels.
"High debt :)"
Me: Hi, debt.
*High interest rate*
"Wait.... she's interested in me?"
Dad: hi debt, im dad
Hi, debt this is dad.
Hello, debt, my ole friend....
Damn, a 21 minute long video from polymatter. Just what I needed in the middle of the week. 😍🥰
"Richer, Longer Lives have more value on their own". Yeah right, time to invest in adult diapers companies stock.
I assume the baby diapers factory could easily produce the adult version when the needs arise
they already make more in japan than they do selling baby diapers
holy shit, thanks for the great dd!
My dude's literally creating full on professional documentaries for us to watch for free.
This dude makes the most informative and high-minded documentaries I have ever seen, TH-cam or otherwise
joke's on you, I'll be useless to society even AFTER im 20
Wow your trash
@@jarenong what about his trash?
@@jarenong even trash can be recycled for other uses but people like me and the op are useless
@@jimyi2305 lol good one 😂😆
优秀
Seniors are "annoyingly wise". 😅😅😅😅😅 Best insult anyone has ever thrown my way.
Doesn't mean you specifically
@@Theturtleowl the school of life generally does teach one resistance to poor decisions. The decades in which one collects such a database is empirical knowledge: based on, concerned with, or verifiable by observation or experience rather than theory or pure logic. Your grandmother found interactions with certain persons distasteful and the strategy she developed was essentially hello followed by continuing on her way. I employed another form of declining to engage with the jerk that made the previous comment: jerks are best dealt with by ignoring them completely.
You will never know wisdom kid. Pathetic.
Another empirical conclusion based on decades of observations: haters spew hatred because they themselves recognize their own failures and failings but because they are haters they blame others rather than take responsibility for their own shortcomings. Socialism and communism originate from that same poisonous well of hatred for everyone that proves wiser than themselves.
@@curtislowe4577 Man can you be my grandparent? Jk just kidding. God I love talking to wise people. All my grandparents do is to b*tch on one another. I crave to listen to wise and intelligent people.
"Succumb to biology" is my favorite phrase for a while.
An inconvenient truth. 😭
Transgenders take note!
Time to go
@@Admiral_Jezza as "a transgender" I can confirm I've submitted to biology, that's why I'm taking hormones and getting a biology degree :)
@@thehuman2cs715 gj
As a beekeeper I confirm that if you don't have bees in all stages ( eggs , larvae , capped brood ) no matter if you have 60000 bees in one colony this will collapse very fast during one generation and you realise you have 5000 bees
I remember years ago telling my daughter that the gender imbalances in China and India was going to lead to a large conventional war. The huge number of unattached men can be too destabilizing for society.
I didn't factor in nuclear weapons keeping both countries on a leash.
I just remember thinking "haha well ur idiots aren't you! Where do you think that's gonna go huh?"...
And the fact governments are not doing enough to counter global warming would you want to leave your kids with the fact our lifestyles are killing our home.
@Kordell swoffer sorry polluting seas and air and killing all animals for food and agriculture to the point were very little can survive.
Man, your writing is marvelous! I am at awe at your simple yet accurate choice of words. Your sentences are on point. Every one of them is crafted beautifully. Well done!
Most of this I was already aware of. The CCP has maybe a twenty year window to do what it wants, then countervailing forces weigh it down. This is one of the key things driving CCP policy. An excellent post, thank you.
@CA148 They are both correct, welcome to the world of translations.
ure so smart
@@Wtahc no u!
I doubt it, the population pyramid for China in 2000s was in a similar shape to the current model and in those years they have massively flourished. That is all without counting for the increased automation, Belt and Road initiative, and the revert back to the 2 child policy.
@@tomjing8921 Of course, you're factually wrong. As so many people have pointed out before, China is going to get old before it gets rich. China hasn't avoided the middle income trap, in other words. This was brought up in the video, by the way. Ecological and environmental issues weren't addressed to speak of, in this video. China is squandering a lot of cheap and easy cash now that it will need later. But let's take your point of view further, let's talk about AI. China is literally banking on reaching the Singularity before any other country, but even assuming it does it may still not work out for China. Are you in the pay of the CCP? Edit: An afterthought, you also forget the sex ratio, which this video mentioned, three men for two women is a serious limit on the number of children that can be born. You COULD argue women should or could have more children, but it's highly unlikely given modern trends and history. The number of women is key. More women, more babies.
Who’s here after hearing that China’s population fell for the first time in decades?
I think one very important aspect, that you scratched, but not really mentioned is that most of the economic revenue isn't produced by the 1.3 billion chinese, but more by like 300 million living mainly in the east of china. So the impact of a smaller population or earning-class isn't that hard hitting, because there are still enough people to fill in the gap.
That’s actually what I was thinking throughout the video. The Chinese government should be able to use this as an opportunity to transition the majority poor population into middle class jobs as the population decreases. They could stabilise the population growth and bring the average value of Chinese citizens up.
That is absolutely true, but first off: jobs are starting to move away from China to places like Vietnam. Second, the fertility decline is ALSO affecting rural peasants. So even though they will subsidize the remaining manufacturing jobs, that just kicks the can down the road until the remaining 1.1 billion people evaporate from the the demographic collapse.
@@Zei33 Also, the number of jobs isn't increasing to compensate new rural peasants moving into the east. So while there will be a steady stream of rural immigrants, that is economic stagnation; not growth.
@@guacre2675 at the size China is, stagnation is really not a problem. It’s like paying off a loan. You have a big amount of money suddenly, but your worth stabilises once you buy the house. You then spend 20-30 years paying off the loan before you start to increase your net worth more dramatically.
China will reduce its population while keeping its economy steady. Then once they’re able to stabilise the population for a number of years, they can once again start working on economic growth in place of population growth.
@@Zei33 I think polymatter explains in the video that population growth is how nations grow their GDP. Developed countries (minus Japan) have small population growth, so their economies grow slowly. China after Mao had a rapid population growth, so it had a rapid economic growth. China's and Japan's economies are doomed, which is what the video is about.
One more problem: Chinas loss in absolute numbers is so huge, it cannot be countered by selective immigration, unlike in Europe, Canada, Australia, etc
Jesus. What authoritarianism will do to a nation.
@CK H who wants to live in China anyway
@CK H that’s more to do with the culture of China being an ethnocentric society. Very few Han Chinese want to see more foreigners in their society so the government couldn’t open up even if it wanted to as we can see in democratic japan where the public don’t want large immigration even with a shrinking population so the government doesn’t do it
@@sirsurnamethefirstofhisnam7986 yeah, south korean also don't want to receive immigrants even our birth rate is 0.84
@@성이름-e8l7x Jeez... What the hell happened in South Korea? Too much K-Pop? Expecting a North Korean invasion?
As an American immigrant, I really wish you had included the nebula bonus section in this version. Far too often are my people vilified for coming to this country, and the people that do that don’t realize how important immigration is to the USAs success.
If we talk about the worthiness of immigration we also need to talk about assimilation/integration.
@@meneither3834 He talks about that in the extended Nebula section. American immigrants assimilate very very well and much better than immigrants to China. The culture of the American dream is very strong, and almost all immigrants come here to experience that culture rather than attempt to turn the US into their homeland. Otherwise why come at all.
@@MegaDman34 it's more than that. Immigrants don't "assimilate well" in America. It's that America is a multicultural nation that accepts that you can be both American& something else (it doesn't work 100% of the time but relative to the rest of the world it's pretty good.)
Countries with an established single dominant culture like in Europe or China can't integrate immigrants as easily. And I'm not sure why but east Asian countries (China, Kora, Japan ) are even worse than the monocultural countries west of them.
@@meneither3834 Yeah I get what your point is. The end result is still the same, immigrants assimilate well in America. What factors contribute the most to that are up for debate, but I agree with everything you mentioned above.
@@MegaDman34 "the end result is still the same"
Well yeah but as a European I'm interested in how we can take inspiration from the American system without crushing local cultures.
Damn you really gonna make me go out and get Nebula for these extended cuts, this is far and away some of the best economics content on YT
One thing that videos about ageing populations always fail to mention is the increase in automation. We're always being told how millions of low skilled manufacturing jobs and service jobs are about to disappear forever, which would mean less demand for labour. I'm not saying this will fix all demographic issues but I would like to see it factored into the analysis as it would probably make a big difference to the conclusion.
Biggest issue with automation is that robots aren’t consumers. If you have millions of low-skilled workers, they all need housing, food, transportation and drive up GDP. Replacing it with robots is increasing GDP for the factory owner, but less so for housing, retail, agriculture and car manufacturers.
Most likely will hurt china even more since they're economy is still based of jobs that will taken away by automation
Edit: wrote chins lol
@@LaidbackLuc9 If there is any country that will be able to deal with wealth redistribution from automation, that is China. You should worry more about your country when millions of poor third worlders lose their jobs and start to get restless...
@@enterchannelnamehere2922 Why? China hasn't coped with wealth distribution in its modern history, mostly because the cake grew bigger so it wasn't that much of an issue how the slices were shared. But it's not just old age pensioners who have certain lifestyle expectations, it's single children, born under the 1 child policy, with good grades and solid education who also be hurt by automation if they assume that China will easily go from industrial powerhouse to services country in one generation. My country may also face some adversity from automation, but is spending ~10k USD per inhabitant on social security. In China, it's more like $ 0,3k USD per inhabitant per annum on social security. This will ramp up even regardless of any job losses due to automation.
@@Emperorick2 i highly doubt that is feasible within this century, maybe even later or ever. Human biology is far too complex and rigid to get people to rejuvenate back to youth.
Predicting the future has been exceedingly difficult and it will continue this way moving forward.
The only thing that's predictable is that, humanity is rushing towards a cliff of doom
@Abhinavv Arora Only 500 million years before the Sun heats up too much to keep liquid water, unless we can move the planet.
That good enough for you?
Is that a prediction?
@@jimcherry685 an estimate of the remaining fuel left in our Sun before it goes Red Giant class and the inner pressure of explosions expands it's surface, thus crisping Mercury and making life a beach on Earth. Least that's what I recall learning in school
I see what you did there.
As a Chinese, thank you so much for making so many videos about China
Wish we had as many videos. Indian media is shit. Can't get any usefull information from them.
@@bcp6086 Yea, as an American a lot of Indian media comes off as a joke like almost like a parody.
Boy did this video age well
*No 1: Don't Only Hope On Government For Income,*
*No 2: As An Individual Look For Different Self Income Not Only Waiting on Monthly Wages,*
*No 3: Always Save The Little You Can And Think Of What To Do With It When It Become Good For Capital.*
It's 100% Good To Have Different Ways To Gain Income, because Government have failed us so therefore let's try and survive
Yes ! For real It is very important to have different streams of income and a diversified portfolio as for me I have already invested in crypto which is very profitable and easy to gain
Exactly I'm also happy to start investing too than to have my money sleeping in bank
Stocks are good but we have to make the right plans
Yes Stocks are good but they are alot of businesses more convenient than stocks
That’s the fact well I only invested in stocks and will love to know a better investment too
My son was in Hong Kong. He dated a 25 yr old single woman. A survivor of the 1 child policy. They going to get married. But she had to take care of elderly grandma. There was one else. Many of these single woman are career oriented. That 14,000,000 birth rate calculates out to .01%, Normal birth is about .04 - .05% about 1/4 normal replacement. But most industrial countries are self destructing..
This is why immigration is increasingly important for sustaining a country. It allows the host to pick out those motivated enough to adapt, with those who don't make the cut either getting ejected or departing on their own (a labor flexibility not so easy to perform with citizens). Likely we'll see Old World ethnostates like NE Asia failing to find a second wind, and more openly adoptive competitors eventually passing them in the longer marathon of generations.
and the eldest daughter is supposed to care for the parents in old age, even when there are multiple children
@@doujinflip “let’s completely ignore the core reason for the issue (1st world country economic aspects) and try to fix it by importing people from completely different cultural backgrounds who will in the long term only serve to destroy local autochrome demographics and one’s core national identity”
Not really a survivor, plenty of my relatives had more than one child, you just need to pay fines for it, and I'm pretty sure that access to insurance may be less, but after all most families are more than happy to make that contribution for an extra child. Also, the fine is nothing dramatic, if you have a job you can handle it.
@@salomez-finnegan7952 but mate, immigrants are all doctors and don't get old or use resources themselves. It's not like we could just invest in better technology. You must be waycist.
Great video. I’ve been following the world’s demographic slowdown for more than 20 years, it’s always amazing how the vast majority think we have nothing but a population explosion, 40 years after that ceased to be the real problem.
It's odd how environmentalists love to say "there's too many humans, so you are morally obligated to have no more than 1 kid!" But if you look at demographic predictions most of the world will experience an aging population followed by a drastic drop in numbers. We need more humans so we don't fuck our economy 2-3 decades from now.
"we're referring to the number of unique humans"
identical twins: pepe.jpg
I am going to be honest. I am learning so much more vocabulary. Your videos have such high level of vocabulary its crazy.
When showing the "unrealistic" extremes, it exposes the "reality" of history in the US. Baby boom, which spawned the child care industry. This was followed by the Production boom, which largely contributed to low reproduction rates. All of which now leaves us currently in the Senior boom, where many can't leave the work force, and opportunities continue to shrink for the new Producers and Babies.
just started the series as you drop the third part and would be binge watching them.
Thank you again for great content 🔥🔥
Polymatter makes some of the best videos on TH-cam. Thank you
This was amazing. A great teacher is one who helps you forget you’re learning!
Ccp learn from US.UK. Forget the pass.
@@thiamchuakoh9292 I think not.
7:14 nice easter egg how you colored the bars like the old flag of china
Regarding the one child policy, it only was really followed in urban areas and people with a certain socio-economic background. When I worked in China a couple of years ago I had multiple students who had 4 brothers and sisters. Regarding these urban areas, it's also important to keep in mind that not everyone working in, say Guangzhou or Shanghai, are officially living there. The parents work there, but their residence is actually some other province that could be far away, and their children live back in that province and are raised by the grandparents in the villages. The villages consist of kids and old people, with money being sent back from the parents working in the urban centers. Therefore part of the population of these urban areas (the parents references above) always were having more than one child, those children just were and are being raised far from the urban areas.
I point these things out because in the video you seem to use the one child policy to cast doubt on the CCP's official 1.6 births per woman number. While I have no idea what the real number is and I don't trust anything said or written by the CCP, the reasoning that the policy must have caused a lower rate than that is faulty.
Assuming the 1-child policy is completely followed, the TFR would have been at 1.0. A TFR of 1.6 already shows that people from somewhere, especially in rural areas where its hardly enforced, are having more than 1 child per family. 1.18 would mean it is working a lot more than the official Chinese statements.
Although I would agree that a TFR of 1.6 is a bit dubious and the numbers would slightly be higher than that, Japan has a TFR of 1.42, South Korea has a TFR of 0.98, without any 1-child policy to affect that. While the rural areas are still far from developed, the urban centers where it is starting to look like any other modern city, would start to follow a similar trend of low birthrates like its neighbors.
He specifically said he was citing stats provided by the Chinese government, which can be unreliable.
@@AshlandInsuranceOregon Yes and I specifically acknowledged that. If you read what I said it was pointing out that his reasoning for doubting that number (other than the fact that you cannot trust any information from the CCP on their say-so alone), namely that there were so many more than 1 child born for every woman when there had been a one-child policy in effect, tacitly assuming that the CCP was willing and able to enforce this policy strictly, was flawed logic.
@@madensmith7014 Muddying the whole "guessing by massaging the data" situation is that most likely China made the one child policy knowing that it wouldn't be strictly followed. They would have known that a TFR of 1.0 would be terrible. They were worried about extremely high TFRs that they couldn't handle. Perhaps they underestimated the drop off in desire to have more children that would occur in the future, but they clearly never intended for it to be strictly followed. It's safe to assume they weren't that dumb. I am not arguing that one number is right and another is wrong. The point of my post was solely to point out the reasoning that "china had a one child policy and it should have had a better effect than to cause a 1.6 TFR" is flawed, and to give examples of how it's flawed. The 1.18 figure may be entirely correct. It's got nothing to do with my post in the end.