Honestly, this concerns me and has left me uneasy. Especially this potential depression, no more a recession. I'm unsure about my $130K account strategy, considering the uncertainty of this whole recession mostly.
Accurate asset allocation is crucial, I used hedging strategies to allocate part of my portfOlio to defensive assets for market downturns. Expert guidance is vital for achieving this. This approach has helped me stay financially secure for over five years, yielding nearly $1m in returns on investments.
A perfect storm is brewing in the United States. Inflation, bank collapse, severe drought in the agricultural belt, recession, food shortages, diesel fuel and heating oil shortages, baby formula shortages, available automobile shortages and prices, the price of living place. It's all coming together and it could lead to a real disaster towards the end of this year (or sooner). With inflation currently at about 6%, my primary concern is how to maximize my savings/retirement fund of about $300k which has been sitting duck since forever with zero to no gains.
These are the conditions in which life-changing money is made by those who remain calm, patient, and take controlled risks. Volatility goes both ways. The bigger the red candles, the bigger the green ones.
Investing in stocks can be a wise decision, especially if you have a dependable trading system that can lead to successful outcomes. Personally, I've been working with a financial advisor for about a year now. Starting with less than $200K and I'm now just $19,000 away from making half a million in profit.
Finding financial advisors like Jessica Lee Horst who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
Our economy struggling with uncertainties, housing issues, foreclosures, global fluctuations, and pandemic aftermath, causing instability. Rising inflation, sluggish growth, and trade disruptions need urgent attention from all sectors to restore stability and stimulate growth.
With the US dollar losing value to inflation and other currencies gaining traction, uncertainty looms. Yet, many still trust in the Dollar's perceived safety. Worried about my $420,000 retirement savings losing value, I seek alternative security for my money.
Yes, Angela Rodriguez Elias she is a great woman of God who has the great insight on QFS, NESARA, XRPL and the Humanitarian Project. She will guide you on how to switch to the qfs banking before the global currency reset takes place. Don't be a victim of that great reset. Get ready for Gesara Nesara, switch into the QFS for your own safety.
The market is panicking, and I'm concerned about the impact on my $350k portfolio. What are some recommendations to preserve and potentially profit from the current situation?
I've been in touch with a financial analyst ever since I started investing. Knowing today's culture The challenge is knowing when to purchase or sell when investing in trending stocks, which is pretty simple. On my portfolio, which has grown over $900k in a little over a year, my adviser chooses entry and exit orders
Every crash/collapse brings with it an equivalent market chance if you are early informed and equipped, I've seen folks amass up to $1m amid economy crisis, and even pull it off easily in favorable conditions. Unequivocally, the collapse is getting somebody somewhere rich
I totally agree, there are strategies that could be put in place for solid gains regardless of economy or market condition, but such execution are usually carried out by investment experts with experience since the 08' crash
The issue is people have the "I want to do it myself mentality" but not equipped enough for a crash, hence getting burnt. Ideally, advisors like Stella Cornwall are reps for investing jobs, and at first-hand encounters, my portfolio has yielded over 300% since 2020, just after the pandemic to date.
I'm a bit perplexed seeing her mentioned here I also Didn't know she has been good to so many people too this is wonderful, i'm in my fifth trade with him and it has been super.
Yet another crystal ball warning. Will there be a crash? Yeah. When? Nobody knows. Market timing is a losing strategy. 👎 So everybody has this advice now. When do we all sell our equities? Which day exactly? What time of the day exactly? 🙄 I will do nothing based on this “advice”. To me, articles like these are clickbait and are to ignored. Trying to predict market movements is a fools errand. Buy-and-hold the total global market using low cost index funds and turn off the noise. 👍
"Buy and hold is not a process... Buy and hold is a recipe to give back half or more of what you have earned over the last 5-10 years. Have a process and understand risk. You can make back money but not time." ~ Michael Lebowitz . Take profits and reinvest. Easy peasy! 😉
I would disagree if I could with your clickbait assessment. There are a lot of people out there that are twitching. His advice to ensure your asset allocation is solid according to your investment philosophy is spot on. His comment on “Time in the Market”, not “Timing the Market” should have been a solid clue to his thoughts. Rewatch, prove me wrong. B
I run an online retail business, and I can tell you that I've never seen a more difficult online retail environment, and I've been doing this for 22 years, so most of the internet age I've been in business. Even in 2009, things for us, weren't as bad as they are right now. The consumer is stopped spending in a serious way. There are ways for businesses like mine to pivot and deal with things like this, because there are things in my business that people HAVE to buy to maintain their equipment, but those new purchases of high value items, and purchases related to expansion of an enterprise have really, really dried up in a way I've never seen before. During Covid, and stimulus check euphoria, we had the best year we've had by over 100%. Now, this year, is shaping up to be our worst year in over ten years, in terms of gross sales. You're hearing this across the retail landscape too, from Best Buy, to malls, and so on. Even Amazon had a lousy quarter, and they seem immune to this sort of downturn usually.
Am I the only one who can see that the spikes in unemployment occur at the END of recessions, not the BEGINNING? Or does no one actually look at charts, not even the people who claim to be analyzing them?
I didn’t sell any of my stocks in 2008-2009 or during the downturn during Covid. I have plenty of cash and retirement income, so I will just ride out any downturn during the recession. I’m not worried in the least because I have lived through many recessions over the past 70 plus years. If some investors are scared and feel like they need to get out of the market, they shouldn’t be in the stock market to begin with. Recessions are a fact of life in the economy and obviously some people just don’t understand this fact. Just remember, the rich get richer because the market goes down when investors sell and the rich can come in and buy stocks at much lower prices.
Agreed. I'm 57, retired, and collect a generous pension. 70% of my portfolio is invested in stock/equities which is my long-term bucket (7+ year bucket). If the market drops I will acquire more stock/equities at discounted prices. Enjoy your retirement.
2008-2009 is when I bought big time I could list 15 examples but a few bought on the cheap and made, or sitting on thousands Pnc, CSL, mo, SYY, HSY, VZ, and 10 more
Not clickbait. The BOA analysis may be wrong or right, but it’s what you reported and the resulting question is a natural response. I stand with Azul on this one.
Retiring in two years, well that's the plan. I'm ready to eat beans and rice to make it last regardless of what's left. Sick of worrying about this dumpster fire of America we live in nowadays!
@@DannyBrooks1And pray too the right guy is elected to straighten out America (& world) financial/economic, crazy:unnecessary wars, energy, and other problems affecting the world of America projecting weakness and incompetence! Vote vote vote…. make sure your family & friends vote.. no sitting out!!
I am the worst investor in the history of the world. Somebody has to have that title and I am it. I am going to be forced to retire next year at 59 far sooner than I wanted.Since 2000 I have made every mistake you are not supposed to make as an investor by watching Jim Cramer and cnbc. All they do is encourage trading and doing your own research. A friend of mine similarly situated as me just let his investments sit there and kept adding like clockwork. He now has 3 times what I have. You only get one chance to do this right. Don’t end up like me. Regretting the lost time doing it all wrong. Just life and focus on saving money and investing on automatic. Don’t even think about it.
As Azul said, he doesn’t know your situation. I’m 1 year from retirement and have been considering moving a larger portion of my retirement savings from stocks to bonds. Bonds suffered in this tightening cycle and are poised to do well when the cuts start. I’d like to see a video on bond funds and TIPS funds.
This dilema has roots back to at least 1971 and all the selfish greed that flourished from that point forward. Central Banks such as the Fed have no concern about the welfare of the citizenery.
I know it's easier said than done, but don't get emotional about money. It will cloud your financial judgement. Block out the noise and stay the course.
Not at all. Construct a suitable portfolio when close/in retirementc and you'll be fine e.g. money market and single gilts/treasury ladder to mitigate sequencing risk. Do it ahead of time i.e. now....😊
@@JohnBeeblebrox This is more of a discussion on stocks. I'm all for T-Bill and Chill but there are a lot of people that are all-in on stocks right now because of the rally from November.
My wife and I have visited Hawaii 15 times over the last 25 years and 13 of those visits have been to Maui.We always loved vacationing in Hawaii for a month each time we visited but now it seems like the natives of Hawaii really don’t want tourists anymore. My wife and I discussed it after watching the show on ABC last week about the fire in Lahaina. We had planned on traveling to Maui in April of next year but after seeing how so many natives seem to dislike tourists now, we have changed our plans and decided to visit Australia and New Zealand instead. I don’t begrudge the attitude of the native Hawaiians regarding tourists but I would rather spend time in an area where the people appreciate visitors from other states or countries. I have heard a lot of great things about Australia and New Zealand and look forward to visiting those countries.
@@Jimwood-tt2je I've been to Hawaii many times and also lived in Sydney, Australia for several years (visited New Zealand, too). You'll wonder why you didn't venture past Hawaii sooner. And yes, the Hawaiians don't like us "haoles".
Dude, you're going down the wrong path with this type of content. Be true to your fee-based advisor roots, don't put this type of content out there. Your tail end message rings true, but your title and initial body of content is BS. Keep this crap within the four walls B of A.
A broken clock is correct twice a day. I wouldn't be forecasting doom when the employment rate they reference is essentially full employment. It really can't go down. I agree with many here. Trying to time the market is foolish.
My daughter works for a 3rd party booking agency for all the big cruise lines , for the last month her work has been nonstop ,,, lots of people going on cruises … I don’t doubt there will be a big downturn but sometimes it’s just best to stay the course.. A couple years ago the utubers were encouraging me to fill my pantry because food was going to be in short supply , well it wasn’t… my financial advisor has “ talked me off the ledge “ several times over the years and every time he was right , it came back, took awhile , but it came back..I don’t get near as anxious as I used to , I just stop watching my portfolio in the bad times..
Side note: speaking in the long term, I feel that unemployment will inevitably go up as automation takes a ton of entry level jobs, and some intermediate ones too. Not every job lost to a machine is going to be replaced by a different job for that person to work. Many will not. While there will always be some positions for humans to occupy, there will eventually be only so many positions to go around, and more and more people won't get one.
Azul, we are in an election cycle, and it is imperative that the economy is kept afloat. The worst thing Democrats want now is a huge recession before the November election. The mantra of a soft landing has gone out, and the majority of the electorate BELIEVES that is the case... A rate cut is needed now to keep the economic debt cycle going, keeping people in debt and buying. But I think the rate cut will come just before the election ~ to favor the "Democrats. ~~ Can we really believe what the media puts out ??? But people DO.~~
I’m on the cusp of retirement. As a sailor the time to shorten sail when a storm is coming is the first notion to do so… should not wait. I’m prepared to “go to the mattresses” (quote from the godfather) and take a much safer tack. Our national debt is through the roof and wars are raging.
Good video and important message to make sure one has an asset allocation that one can stick with in the ups and downs of the market. As you say in the video, “time in the market, not timing the market”.
Hallelujah 🙌🏻!!!!! The daily jesus devotional has been a huge part of my transformation, God is good 🙌🏻🙌🏻. I was owing a loan of $49,000 to the bank for my son's brain surgery, Now I'm no longer in debt after I invested $11,000 and got my payout of $290,500 every month…God bless Mrs Susan Jane Christy ❤️
As of March 30, 2024, Bank of America shows a loss (paper loss) on their held to maturity bond portfolio of $110B on a total portfolio of $595B. I'd be careful about putting too much stock in their economic predictions. Not to mention their commercial real estate exposure!
Good post Azul - many thanks. Also, cautious and nuanced - which is appreciated. You are right to draw attention to a possible downturn in the market - to avoid people losing their money in the coming months. However, some people do not want to hear any such message - but that attitude is not helpful. We are at risk right now : be aware and protect your money
I agree equities are elevated however the US taxpayer had to bail BOA out in 2009. Also the accounting board’s arm was twisted so hard that they modified the mark to market rules on Derivatives to save the bank. I do disagree that Bank of America are “ Smart guys”. Like all big financial institutions there is a lot of incompetence and complacency imbedded in the system. It’s going to be a soft landing from where I sit.
Thank you for your thoughts, Albert. I tend to agree with you about the soft landing. But, I place the odds of a recession at about 1/3. How about you? Thanks for taking the time to watch and to comment. Azul
It was time to act and move to Gold, Cash, and Treasuries a few months ago. Anyone still with 60%+ stocks should be able/willing to withstand a 25-50% drop coming up here. Old folks (like me), beware.
Tourism downturn - I was thinking the downturn was a result of the high inflation. When everything is costing more (remember the days when a $60 meal for two was a "nice" meal?) I'm thinking people start pulling back on spending.
Besides reviewing your long term asset allocation (which might mean selling some stocks if the stock component is too high because of the great market we have had this year), have some cash or cash equivalents available to deploy if the market drops substantially and you need to buy more stocks to get back to that long term allocation.
The weight of the evidence has always been that rate cuts drop markets. Sometimes not, but mostly yes. So why did the narrative get out that rate cuts were good for investors? Propaganda.
Business Insider is pure clickbait. This “story” may be accurate, but their past drives me to disregard anything BI publishes. Now it’s time to find support for this. Does any reputable source agree? You quoting BI is troubling.
The day before you posted this, “The CEO of Bank of America, Brian Moynihan, told CBS’ Face the Nation Sunday that his analysts are no longer predicting a recession”. What has happened to you? In a matter of days you gone from calm and reasonable to full fear mongering.
Interesting the negative information, These guys are putting out makes you wonder what their agenda or their motive. They have nothing positive to say, is it to create fear?
Yep. In retirement, I want the 3-year bucket of cash. I would normally "level up" annually if the market was OK, otherwise I would wait. In the case of this year, I would "level up" after that rate drop coming in September (if it does), and just take a year of stocks into cash at that time instead of January 1.
Disappointed in you. Sahm herself says this isn't a law of the universe. Rates are getting cut to NOT continue suppressing the economy to control inflation. Completely opposite reason when rates were flat and a recession develops. You are so WRONG on this one.
We’re definitely in a recession. A family member of mine has 2 construction companies in the San Francisco, Ca area and business has drastically slowed down. Went from having 250 workers down to about 50 people including office personnel. More people getting laid off weekly. I see my neighbors moving out, sub-leasing, some getting evicted. More and more homeless every where. Things are bad.
Money supply is lower than July 2022, has contracted, and growing at only 0.6%. Only 4 other times in history has M2 contracted and each time has either resulted in a recession or depression 1929-33.
I was ready to pull the trigger on the day in July when the S & P hit its all time high. I flinched and it dropped 10% within a few days. I'll take this as a heads up. I started dollar cost averaging in 1986 so I've been in the market a long time. I can afford to take a break. Especially since I can at least earn a few percent with money on the sideline.
People are still everywhere spending money like drunken sailors. Just look around when you go places, and you’ll see long lines, crowded spaces, and low supplies. The home renovation boom is still going strong. There is still too much money floating around in the economy. We need a rate INCREASE not a decrease.
I read that B of A is in financial trouble. (Maybe bad RE loans or bond losses-I don't know) And may go bankrupt. I'm not holding my breath (would get bailed out by you the taxpayer) but it would be a time for celebration if BofA went belly up.
This isn't that big a reveal, there's almost always a market slump or correction at the First rate cut of an easing cycle, though arguably that's usually in a recession so if this analyst is going by that, he could be wrong.
Seems like you stirred the passive crowd up. Passive has worked well under the assumption that passive doesn’t impact market outcomes. But as it’s gotten bigger it has begun to be the big deadhand at the wheel. What could possibly go wrong? Lots.
What do we do? Hold a DIVERSIFIED portfolio ...ALWAYS! The majority of ours is diversified. I leave about 10% for "timing" trades. This looks like an interesting opportunity to "play" with a few $s. Note that Buffett's own portfolio has more cash on hand NOW then they ever have had previously. Keep some dry powder
Buy and hold is about the only strategy in a company 401k, but it's not a great when you have control over your brokerage and IRA's. You should take profits when you see volatility. It's truly the best way to make that money in the market. Buy low, sell high!
Sell which stocks? The stocks that will do better in a lower-rate environment will probably go up, while other stocks will be in trouble. There may be a rotation from cyclicals to growth again....or maybe not. The thing to do is only to have good companies - they will always do better in all markets.
Thanks for the info for sure, at least i got it. but i think it is fast rate cuts that seem to go with stock market losses, if it is slow and steady the market will keep going up.. we will see... but i am staying in..
two weeks ago, well since mid-July, when the markets were hitting lows not seen since 2020? hope you bought low, because two weeks ago with few exceptions (e.g., 31-July) the markets were generally down (since mid-July) FWIW, I was buying the dips; and I expect even bigger dips before the end of the year, especially if Kameltoe and Wartz are installed.
Honestly, this concerns me and has left me uneasy. Especially this potential depression, no more a recession. I'm unsure about my $130K account strategy, considering the uncertainty of this whole recession mostly.
If you lack knowledge about market investing tactics, get advice from a financial counselor.
Accurate asset allocation is crucial, I used hedging strategies to allocate part of my portfOlio to defensive assets for market downturns. Expert guidance is vital for achieving this. This approach has helped me stay financially secure for over five years, yielding nearly $1m in returns on investments.
That does make a lot of sense, unlike us, you seem to have the Market figured out. Who is this coach?
Her name is Annette Marie Holt can't divulge much. Most likely, the internet should have her basic info, you can research if you like
I just looked her up on the web and I would say she really has an impressive background in investing. I will write her an email shortly.
A perfect storm is brewing in the United States. Inflation, bank collapse, severe drought in the agricultural belt, recession, food shortages, diesel fuel and heating oil shortages, baby formula shortages, available automobile shortages and prices, the price of living place. It's all coming together and it could lead to a real disaster towards the end of this year (or sooner). With inflation currently at about 6%, my primary concern is how to maximize my savings/retirement fund of about $300k which has been sitting duck since forever with zero to no gains.
These are the conditions in which life-changing money is made by those who remain calm, patient, and take controlled risks. Volatility goes both ways. The bigger the red candles, the bigger the green ones.
Investing in stocks can be a wise decision, especially if you have a dependable trading system that can lead to successful outcomes. Personally, I've been working with a financial advisor for about a year now. Starting with less than $200K and I'm now just $19,000 away from making half a million in profit.
How can one find a verifiable financial planner? I would not mind looking up the professional that helped you
Finding financial advisors like Jessica Lee Horst who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
I just looked her up on the web and I would say she really has an impressive background in investing. I will write her an email shortly.
Our economy struggling with uncertainties, housing issues, foreclosures, global fluctuations, and pandemic aftermath, causing instability. Rising inflation, sluggish growth, and trade disruptions need urgent attention from all sectors to restore stability and stimulate growth.
With the US dollar losing value to inflation and other currencies gaining traction, uncertainty looms. Yet, many still trust in the Dollar's perceived safety. Worried about my $420,000 retirement savings losing value, I seek alternative security for my money.
I think QFS, XRPL and the Humanitarian Project are the solution for this.
Do you know how I can switch to QFS banking?
Yes, Angela Rodriguez Elias she is a great woman of God who has the great insight on QFS, NESARA, XRPL and the Humanitarian Project. She will guide you on how to switch to the qfs banking before the global currency reset takes place. Don't be a victim of that great reset. Get ready for Gesara Nesara, switch into the QFS for your own safety.
How do I contact her?
The market is panicking, and I'm concerned about the impact on my $350k portfolio. What are some recommendations to preserve and potentially profit from the current situation?
This could be a good time to profit from the market, due to the current volatility, but it's best to consult a financial advisor.
I've been in touch with a financial analyst ever since I started investing. Knowing today's culture The challenge is knowing when to purchase or sell when investing in trending stocks, which is pretty simple. On my portfolio, which has grown over $900k in a little over a year, my adviser chooses entry and exit orders
Please can you leave the info of your lnvestment advsor here? I’m in dire need for one
*Marissa Lynn Babula* is the licensed advisor I use. Just search the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.
Sorry Azul, I don’t trust anything Bank of America and Wells Fargo say at all!
Who do you trust?
@@PittsburghPat Definitely not those banks!
Every crash/collapse brings with it an equivalent market chance if you are early informed and equipped, I've seen folks amass up to $1m amid economy crisis, and even pull it off easily in favorable conditions. Unequivocally, the collapse is getting somebody somewhere rich
I totally agree, there are strategies that could be put in place for solid gains regardless of economy or market condition, but such execution are usually carried out by investment experts with experience since the 08' crash
The issue is people have the "I want to do it myself mentality" but not equipped enough for a crash, hence getting burnt. Ideally, advisors like Stella Cornwall are reps for investing jobs, and at first-hand encounters, my portfolio has yielded over 300% since 2020, just after the pandemic to date.
Stella Cornwall is really a good investment advisor. Was privileged to attend some of her seminars. That's how I started my own crypto investment.
Stella Cornwall stands out from other brokers because she takes a realistic approach, unlike those who set unrealistic targets and fail to deliver.
I'm a bit perplexed seeing her mentioned here I also Didn't know she has been good to so many people too this is wonderful, i'm in my fifth trade with him and it has been super.
Yet another crystal ball warning. Will there be a crash? Yeah. When? Nobody knows.
Market timing is a losing strategy. 👎
So everybody has this advice now. When do we all sell our equities? Which day exactly? What time of the day exactly? 🙄
I will do nothing based on this “advice”.
To me, articles like these are clickbait and are to ignored.
Trying to predict market movements is a fools errand.
Buy-and-hold the total global market using low cost index funds and turn off the noise.
👍
"Buy and hold is not a process... Buy and hold is a recipe to give back half or more of what you have earned over the last 5-10 years. Have a process and understand risk. You can make back money but not time." ~ Michael Lebowitz .
Take profits and reinvest. Easy peasy! 😉
Clickbait. Sorry Azul, but we buy to hold. We don’t try to time the market.
Agreed. Poor content video designed for more views.
But I do try to time my buys to hold
CBS and Fox report that "Bank of America no longer forecasts a U.S. recession in 2024" - things change fast...
I would disagree if I could with your clickbait assessment. There are a lot of people out there that are twitching. His advice to ensure your asset allocation is solid according to your investment philosophy is spot on. His comment on “Time in the Market”, not “Timing the Market” should have been a solid clue to his thoughts.
Rewatch, prove me wrong. B
These thumbnails are totally doomer boomer.
I run an online retail business, and I can tell you that I've never seen a more difficult online retail environment, and I've been doing this for 22 years, so most of the internet age I've been in business. Even in 2009, things for us, weren't as bad as they are right now. The consumer is stopped spending in a serious way. There are ways for businesses like mine to pivot and deal with things like this, because there are things in my business that people HAVE to buy to maintain their equipment, but those new purchases of high value items, and purchases related to expansion of an enterprise have really, really dried up in a way I've never seen before. During Covid, and stimulus check euphoria, we had the best year we've had by over 100%. Now, this year, is shaping up to be our worst year in over ten years, in terms of gross sales. You're hearing this across the retail landscape too, from Best Buy, to malls, and so on. Even Amazon had a lousy quarter, and they seem immune to this sort of downturn usually.
As Warren Buffett says, no one knows anything...
Probably right, but he did just drop a ton of Apple shares the other day, and is now sitting on a boatload of Cash.
Berkshire Hathaway now owns more bonds than the FED.
@@ggfinger1 Maybe he knows something we don't. He just may be positioning BH for things to go on sale in the near future.
Am I the only one who can see that the spikes in unemployment occur at the END of recessions, not the BEGINNING?
Or does no one actually look at charts, not even the people who claim to be analyzing them?
I didn’t sell any of my stocks in 2008-2009 or during the downturn during Covid. I have plenty of cash and retirement income, so I will just ride out any downturn during the recession. I’m not worried in the least because I have lived through many recessions over the past 70 plus years.
If some investors are scared and feel like they need to get out of the market, they shouldn’t be in the stock market to begin with. Recessions are a fact of life in the economy and obviously some people just don’t understand this fact.
Just remember, the rich get richer because the market goes down when investors sell and the rich can come in and buy stocks at much lower prices.
Agreed. I'm 57, retired, and collect a generous pension. 70% of my portfolio is invested in stock/equities which is my long-term bucket (7+ year bucket). If the market drops I will acquire more stock/equities at discounted prices. Enjoy your retirement.
2008-2009 is when I bought big time
I could list 15 examples but a few bought on the cheap and made, or sitting on thousands
Pnc, CSL, mo, SYY, HSY, VZ, and 10 more
Because the rich have cash because they weren’t fully invested as the market crashed. They time markets. Refer Buffett selling Apple.
When your financial advisor starts to panic it’s time to get a new financial advisor.
Not clickbait. The BOA analysis may be wrong or right, but it’s what you reported and the resulting question is a natural response. I stand with Azul on this one.
Amen.
Yes Azul, let’s just start trying to time the market because all of us are REALLY good at that. 🙄
I need to unsubscribe.
@@scottmetzger7621don’t be a fatalist. Take some agency. Manage your risk exposure.
Retiring in two years, well that's the plan. I'm ready to eat beans and rice to make it last regardless of what's left. Sick of worrying about this dumpster fire of America we live in nowadays!
Retired July 1st! That is exactly what I said and still think! Don’t have one regret, best move in my life!!!! 🙏🙏🙏🙏
Yep! There will be places around the world where you can live well on just social security if you have a nest egg to fall back on.
Don’t forget to vote!
2 years for me too. Is what it is. We have done extremely well over the past 12 years or so. Stay the course.
@@DannyBrooks1And pray too the right guy is elected to straighten out America (& world) financial/economic, crazy:unnecessary wars, energy, and other problems affecting the world of America projecting weakness and incompetence! Vote vote vote…. make sure your family & friends vote.. no sitting out!!
Hartnett was bearish during the 2023 rally, so how did that work out for his investors? A broken clock is correct twice a day.
I am the worst investor in the history of the world. Somebody has to have that title and I am it. I am going to be forced to retire next year at 59 far sooner than I wanted.Since 2000 I have made every mistake you are not supposed to make as an investor by watching Jim Cramer and cnbc. All they do is encourage trading and doing your own research. A friend of mine similarly situated as me just let his investments sit there and kept adding like clockwork. He now has 3 times what I have. You only get one chance to do this right. Don’t end up like me. Regretting the lost time doing it all wrong. Just life and focus on saving money and investing on automatic. Don’t even think about it.
Good advice.
As Azul said, he doesn’t know your situation.
I’m 1 year from retirement and have been considering moving a larger portion of my retirement savings from stocks to bonds.
Bonds suffered in this tightening cycle and are poised to do well when the cuts start.
I’d like to see a video on bond funds and TIPS funds.
Muni bonds are already climbing. I believe you are right
I’ve started doing the same.
NO SALE! Dust off the cash reserves for a buying frenzy IF that does happen.
This dilema has roots back to at least 1971 and all the selfish greed that flourished from that point forward. Central Banks such as the Fed have no concern about the welfare of the citizenery.
Don’t just do something, stand there !
Love Bogle!
I'm an investor not a trader Azul. Btw. What if you're wrong like the majority of youtube financial "experts"?
Love the pooch. English Golden?
Cream golden
I know it's easier said than done, but don't get emotional about money. It will cloud your financial judgement. Block out the noise and stay the course.
If you're younger and dollar-cost-averaging, you should be fine. This is more of a potential issue for those closer to retirement or already retired.
Not at all. Construct a suitable portfolio when close/in retirementc and you'll be fine e.g. money market and single gilts/treasury ladder to mitigate sequencing risk. Do it ahead of time i.e. now....😊
@@JohnBeeblebrox This is more of a discussion on stocks. I'm all for T-Bill and Chill but there are a lot of people that are all-in on stocks right now because of the rally from November.
We appreciate your information and advice. It’s up to individuals to decide what to act on
Yeah, whatever, I will refuse to panic.Hawaii hates tourists, it is well documented. We will not go back there.
My wife and I have visited Hawaii 15 times over the last 25 years and 13 of those visits have been to Maui.We always loved vacationing in Hawaii for a month each time we visited but now it seems like the natives of Hawaii really don’t want tourists anymore.
My wife and I discussed it after watching the show on ABC last week about the fire in Lahaina. We had planned on traveling to Maui in April of next year but after seeing how so many natives seem to dislike tourists now, we have changed our plans and decided to visit Australia and New Zealand instead.
I don’t begrudge the attitude of the native Hawaiians regarding tourists but I would rather spend time in an area where the people appreciate visitors from other states or countries. I have heard a lot of great things about Australia and New Zealand
and look forward to visiting those countries.
@@Jimwood-tt2je I've been to Hawaii many times and also lived in Sydney, Australia for several years (visited New Zealand, too). You'll wonder why you didn't venture past Hawaii sooner. And yes, the Hawaiians don't like us "haoles".
Dude, you're going down the wrong path with this type of content. Be true to your fee-based advisor roots, don't put this type of content out there. Your tail end message rings true, but your title and initial body of content is BS. Keep this crap within the four walls B of A.
A broken clock is correct twice a day. I wouldn't be forecasting doom when the employment rate they reference is essentially full employment. It really can't go down. I agree with many here. Trying to time the market is foolish.
Azul is never right
My daughter works for a 3rd party booking agency for all the big cruise lines , for the last month her work has been nonstop ,,, lots of people going on cruises … I don’t doubt there will be a big downturn but sometimes it’s just best to stay the course.. A couple years ago the utubers were encouraging me to fill my pantry because food was going to be in short supply , well it wasn’t… my financial advisor has “ talked me off the ledge “ several times over the years and every time he was right , it came back, took awhile , but it came back..I don’t get near as anxious as I used to , I just stop watching my portfolio in the bad times..
Side note: speaking in the long term, I feel that unemployment will inevitably go up as automation takes a ton of entry level jobs, and some intermediate ones too. Not every job lost to a machine is going to be replaced by a different job for that person to work. Many will not. While there will always be some positions for humans to occupy, there will eventually be only so many positions to go around, and more and more people won't get one.
How does that work exactly?
@@angelasmith1112 We're at a unique point in human history. Nobody knows.
Sell the news. Buy the rumor.
Sorry Azul, exhausted with your repetitive content. I'm out - wish you well. BTW - be sure to hire a fee only financial advisor...blah, blah.
Why do they need to stimulate the economy when this Administration keeps telling us everything is fine.
This is very good information and is well balanced and measured. Azul is providing this information for us to consider. Thank you, Azul.
Azul, we are in an election cycle, and it is imperative that the economy is kept afloat. The worst thing Democrats want now is a huge recession before the November election. The mantra of a soft landing has gone out, and the majority of the electorate BELIEVES that is the case... A rate cut is needed now to keep the economic debt cycle going, keeping people in debt and buying. But I think the rate cut will come just before the election ~ to favor the "Democrats. ~~ Can we really believe what the media puts out ??? But people DO.~~
Nothing tells me a commenter is a state sponsored bot more than a USER id like yours, Mr. state sponsored bot. Nice try IVAN.
lol Not sure they’d make it that obvious!
I’m on the cusp of retirement. As a sailor the time to shorten sail when a storm is coming is the first notion to do so… should not wait. I’m prepared to “go to the mattresses” (quote from the godfather) and take a much safer tack. Our national debt is through the roof and wars are raging.
Great breakdown, thanks!
Good video and important message to make sure one has an asset allocation that one can stick with in the ups and downs of the market. As you say in the video, “time in the market, not timing the market”.
Don’t care. Time in the market beats timing the market. Every time.
I wonder what someone investing in 1965 would say to that. It was 1995 before it retuned to the 1965 level.
@@rickmossop3733 only if you stopped investing in 1965. If you kept buying in you would be doing pretty well.
You always buy the 3rd rate cut. That's when you don't fight the Fed.
I buy puts to protect a few of my big positions when I feel the need.
Hallelujah 🙌🏻!!!!! The daily jesus devotional has been a huge part of my transformation, God is good 🙌🏻🙌🏻. I was owing a loan of $49,000 to the bank for my son's brain surgery, Now I'm no longer in debt after I invested $11,000 and got my payout of $290,500 every month…God bless Mrs Susan Jane Christy ❤️
Azul please chill out on this stuff...
people voted for it - jarkarases
And, 17 hrs later, BofA reverses itself and says it doesn't see any signs of recession and sees growth for the next 6 quarters.
CFO a few days ago vs CEO news. The CFO is always right. The CEO is a salesman
Economists are like meteorologists. They can’t predict future.
As of March 30, 2024, Bank of America shows a loss (paper loss) on their held to maturity bond portfolio of $110B on a total portfolio of $595B. I'd be careful about putting too much stock in their economic predictions. Not to mention their commercial real estate exposure!
Good post Azul - many thanks. Also, cautious and nuanced - which is appreciated. You are right to draw attention to a possible downturn in the market - to avoid people losing their money in the coming months. However, some people do not want to hear any such message - but that attitude is not helpful. We are at risk right now : be aware and protect your money
I agree equities are elevated however the US taxpayer had to bail BOA out in 2009. Also the accounting board’s arm was twisted so hard that they modified the mark to market rules on Derivatives to save the bank. I do disagree that Bank of America are “ Smart guys”. Like all big financial institutions there is a lot of incompetence and complacency imbedded in the system. It’s going to be a soft landing from where I sit.
Thank you for your thoughts, Albert. I tend to agree with you about the soft landing. But, I place the odds of a recession at about 1/3. How about you? Thanks for taking the time to watch and to comment. Azul
Maui burned to the ground... perhaps that is why tourism is down?
I wouldn't worry to much about all this. I am absolutely certain we will have plenty of $$ for Israel/Ukraine.
Close to retirement gotta have an allocation that can tolerate big swings without forcing you to sell low. Cash is a good buffer.
It was time to act and move to Gold, Cash, and Treasuries a few months ago. Anyone still with 60%+ stocks should be able/willing to withstand a 25-50% drop coming up here. Old folks (like me), beware.
My AA is 60-40 stocks and bonds.
Tourism downturn - I was thinking the downturn was a result of the high inflation. When everything is costing more (remember the days when a $60 meal for two was a "nice" meal?) I'm thinking people start pulling back on spending.
Besides reviewing your long term asset allocation (which might mean selling some stocks if the stock component is too high because of the great market we have had this year), have some cash or cash equivalents available to deploy if the market drops substantially and you need to buy more stocks to get back to that long term allocation.
The weight of the evidence has always been that rate cuts drop markets. Sometimes not, but mostly yes. So why did the narrative get out that rate cuts were good for investors? Propaganda.
Business Insider is pure clickbait. This “story” may be accurate, but their past drives me to disregard anything BI publishes. Now it’s time to find support for this. Does any reputable source agree? You quoting BI is troubling.
Does it make sense within a 401k to move fund to a principal protection money market at age 57?
Yes
Terrible advice. There's no crystal ball. Anybody that tells you to sell based on "fears" of anything, is going to gain from your fear. Hard pass.
The day before you posted this, “The CEO of Bank of America, Brian Moynihan, told CBS’ Face the Nation Sunday that his analysts are no longer predicting a recession”. What has happened to you? In a matter of days you gone from calm and reasonable to full fear mongering.
Make America Affordable Again!
Interesting the negative information, These guys are putting out makes you wonder what their agenda or their motive. They have nothing positive to say, is it to create fear?
Perhaps they want to discredit the current wh administration ahead of the election.
But Biden says he cured the economy! 😂😂😂
Vote Trump
Keep 3 years in cash.......
Yep. In retirement, I want the 3-year bucket of cash. I would normally "level up" annually if the market was OK, otherwise I would wait. In the case of this year, I would "level up" after that rate drop coming in September (if it does), and just take a year of stocks into cash at that time instead of January 1.
I’m keeping 5 years.
Disappointed in you. Sahm herself says this isn't a law of the universe. Rates are getting cut to NOT continue suppressing the economy to control inflation. Completely opposite reason when rates were flat and a recession develops. You are so WRONG on this one.
And here I thought you were going to tell us to sell.
He is right. Happens everytime. Buffet sold aapl for a reason. 😅
We’re definitely in a recession. A family member of mine has 2 construction companies in the San Francisco, Ca area and business has drastically slowed down. Went from having 250 workers down to about 50 people including office personnel. More people getting laid off weekly. I see my neighbors moving out, sub-leasing, some getting evicted. More and more homeless every where. Things are bad.
Hi Azul, I will not sell any stocks. Bought some AMZN on last monday when the maket went crazy.
Sounds like it'll be a great time to buy!
Money supply is lower than July 2022, has contracted, and growing at only 0.6%. Only 4 other times in history has M2 contracted and each time has either resulted in a recession or depression 1929-33.
I was ready to pull the trigger on the day in July when the S & P hit its all time high. I flinched and it dropped 10% within a few days. I'll take this as a heads up. I started dollar cost averaging in 1986 so I've been in the market a long time. I can afford to take a break. Especially since I can at least earn a few percent with money on the sideline.
People are still everywhere spending money like drunken sailors. Just look around when you go places, and you’ll see long lines, crowded spaces, and low supplies. The home renovation boom is still going strong. There is still too much money floating around in the economy. We need a rate INCREASE not a decrease.
what are the others commerical banks are staying as well?? is only BofA saying that we will be heading into recession "??
Chief of B of A was on with Margaret Brennan yesterday saying they do not predict a recession.
If stocks fall, then its good news for me. I have my watchlist ready to pick up at a discount. I can't wait.
Azul- need keep a portion in fixed securities. The doom and gloom is not good.
I read that B of A is in financial trouble. (Maybe bad RE loans or bond losses-I don't know) And may go bankrupt. I'm not holding my breath (would get bailed out by you the taxpayer) but it would be a time for celebration if BofA went belly up.
I am not looking for rate cuts, I like getting a return on my money market accounts, Fed loves to punish savers and reward debtors.
This isn't that big a reveal, there's almost always a market slump or correction at the First rate cut of an easing cycle, though arguably that's usually in a recession so if this analyst is going by that, he could be wrong.
this is bs, the unemployment rate is going down.
Just invest in an index fund like the s&p500, Russel 2000 or a total market ETF and you'll be fine.
Seems like you stirred the passive crowd up.
Passive has worked well under the assumption that passive doesn’t impact market outcomes. But as it’s gotten bigger it has begun to be the big deadhand at the wheel.
What could possibly go wrong? Lots.
High inflation, lower interest rates, and rising unemployment. Save your pennies, people, gonna be hard to generate income to keep up.
What do we do? Hold a DIVERSIFIED portfolio ...ALWAYS! The majority of ours is diversified. I leave about 10% for "timing" trades. This looks like an interesting opportunity to "play" with a few $s. Note that Buffett's own portfolio has more cash on hand NOW then they ever have had previously. Keep some dry powder
I’ll go with Tom Lee. I am in it to win it!
follow Azul to time the market
The model for today is 1984
Stocks cannot fall under MMT.
It is getting very nervous, call corrections are healthy for very long term it is a part of market cycles.
Buy and hold is about the only strategy in a company 401k, but it's not a great when you have control over your brokerage and IRA's.
You should take profits when you see volatility. It's truly the best way to make that money in the market.
Buy low, sell high!
Sell which stocks? The stocks that will do better in a lower-rate environment will probably go up, while other stocks will be in trouble. There may be a rotation from cyclicals to growth again....or maybe not.
The thing to do is only to have good companies - they will always do better in all markets.
Thanks for the info for sure, at least i got it. but i think it is fast rate cuts that seem to go with stock market losses, if it is slow and steady the market will keep going up.. we will see... but i am staying in..
Why sell 'growth' stocks ? maybe value stock will be in trouble.
I finally started making money in the stock market many years ago when I stopped trying to time the market.
Market down is a good time to buy stock for when they recover Not necessarily in your 401K but separately
What if we are long-term investors and use a dollar cost average strategy 🤔.
Should we sell?
Nope
lol Michael wants to buy stocks cheap and he missed the boat.
So, you’re advocating market timing? Hmmm.
Two weeks ago, I rebalanced my portfolio to 90% bonds 10% stocks. I smell a recession.
two weeks ago, well since mid-July, when the markets were hitting lows not seen since 2020? hope you bought low, because two weeks ago with few exceptions (e.g., 31-July) the markets were generally down (since mid-July)
FWIW, I was buying the dips; and I expect even bigger dips before the end of the year, especially if Kameltoe and Wartz are installed.
@@zoomzoom3950 I sold at the high when Nasdaq was around 40,500 around 2 weeks ago.