I was waiting for the burst part. Right now, all I saw were huge price increases so that the seller gets the price they wanted. Example. If I want to sell my home for 650K then i will list it for 700K and settle at 650K. You haven't really shown the burst. Only tactic being used. I see the game being played.
Shawn, As alway, great data-driven analysis without the hype and panic button pushing. You really have your finger on the pulse of the Phoenix-area real estate market.
Sky rocketing interest rates? They are where they should be. The 2% was an anomaly caused by the market crash of 2008. I bought a house in 1989 and my interest rate was over 8%. In the late 1970’s I had CD’s earning 18% interest and interest for a home purchase was 21%. Nothing is skyrocketing.
History shows people always make irresponsible financial decisions..The crash will absolutely happen it’s only a matter of time. Talk about overpaying..yikes.
I know your focus seems to be on Phoenix and the East Valley and I enjoy your videos, but I'd like to see you throw in more concentration on the West Valley too which is in many ways more affordable than the other areas.
Thanks, Shan; I am not looking for a house in Phoenix, but your analysis and advice are proving useful for me. Thanks for being clear and efficient without your presentation.
Shawn, this is a really great and informative video. It really breaks down the different segments of the market. I think we are finally starting to see the higher interest rates have an effect on the overall inventory of homes for sale. Some markets are obviously still hot but when we see things start to flatten out, that can be a positive sign for buyers.
I agree, the flattening of prices as well as those homes that have been on the market for a while. These sellers have to negotiate to get the home sold. Buyers have more negotiating power.
Excellent analysis balanced and data driven, but no bubble burst, specially when the fed starts lowering interest rates… but if you review other TH-camrs, every year is nothing but “ the bubble is bursting “ and of course all backed by their inconsistent data and charts and making references to things being worse than 2007… so in 2020 during the pandemic because people were losing their jobs, then 2022 with the end of forbearance, then in 2023 with the high interest rates, 2024 with the so called short term rental bubble… but yet in Tempe and Scottsdale, prices have only gone higher… regardless of how much everyone says there is a bubble popping. Yeah sure, sit on the sidelines and you’ll see prices drop, right… then 4 years later homes are up 30% to 40% 😒😟
There is a a big difference between 2007 and now! Very different market conditions. Yet you are right the “crash bros” continue talking about how the market is “crashing” hoping that if they say it long enough it will be right. They use made up charts & anyone who challenges them they will be kicked off their channel. I know a few this has happened to.
If you're going to buy a house in Maricopa county make sure to get a top home inspector. Do not get someone recommended by the realtor. And avoid HOAs like the plague. For the last decade the houses built here are trash.
Look at 2637 N 83rd Pl, Scottsdale. Pending in 1 day. 2718 N 8th St, Phoenix. 2 days. 6117 N 71st Ln, Glendale. Same day. 2430 E Boulder Ave, Apache Junction. Same day. 1961 S 242nd Ave, Buckeye. Same day. And there are many others. The market looks RED HOT to me.
Issue at hand is buyer an individual that moves his family in or an investor/ group that artificially inflates value for their benefit, then flees area when bottom drops out and spends profit in Caymans? Thanks. Joy for neighbors who remain and enjoy falsely valued tax rates because 1 house sold to fool for an exorbitant high level Thanks again. Stepford - like Fountain Hills is not economically disadvantaged. Stepford-like.
@@DouglasMcLaughlin-kq7hk Explain how an investor/group artificially inflates value. Explain how 1 house sale can significantly affect tax rates for the neighbors.
@@joevarga5982 existing house price boosted by 9% affects neighbors as average is also boosted. Have others do same float and assessor sees tax dollars available. Friend bought 2 story home for $145k. One story across the street built at same builder, same time frame, just sold for $450k. You figure tax rate is uniform?
Normally great videos from you Shawn. I was hoping for a more representative analysis. Yes, each sub-market is different, but selecting Chandler, Fountain Hills, Scottsdale, PV & Cave Creek to "drill down" into is certainly curated and was a missed opportunity to provide a fair analysis across the board.
I own the LEAST valuable detached home, in Scottsdale AZ, 85260 zip code. When I bought it, 21 years ago, it was the least valuable. After spending over $60K on improvements (over the past 7 years, half of that in 2024), it’s still the least valuable home in 85260.. It makes me sad 😢
@@shawn.shackelton Seems any agent who has ever come up with a list price for this house, always suggests pricing lower than any other comparable listing in 85260. Though the last time that was done was prior to the latest $30K worth of remodeling. Last September it was suggested to list for $549K. I see the current lowest price in 85260, for a true detached house, is $560K.. And this is 10 months later. See what I mean..
Classifying all of Phoenix as one market is ridiculous. I'm sure sales numbers vary greatly by zipcode or community. Comparing the Phoenix market to smaller places like Fountain Hills or Chandler doesn't show the big picture .
Paradise schools are the worst ever, the families go to private schools. Scottsdale schools are horrible too, the parents that care go to private schools so all your left with is divorced families in the public schools in those two areas.
@@shawn.shackelton , yes we had to hire lawyers, and most of my neighbors in Arcadia pulled their kids out of the public schools after only a few years. Maybe you are fine with the wokeness and bullying.
@@timothyyoung4061 Was this at Hopi or another school in Arcadia? I ask because I've had clients wanting to get their kids into that school, and it has been one of the only schools that is full, so you have to live within the boundaries. Not Ok with wokeness or bulling at all!
Your videos are very informative and thorough. Thank you.
I was waiting for the burst part. Right now, all I saw were huge price increases so that the seller gets the price they wanted. Example. If I want to sell my home for 650K then i will list it for 700K and settle at 650K. You haven't really shown the burst. Only tactic being used. I see the game being played.
Shawn, As alway, great data-driven analysis without the hype and panic button pushing. You really have your finger on the pulse of the Phoenix-area real estate market.
Thanks so much!!
Sky rocketing interest rates? They are where they should be. The 2% was an anomaly caused by the market crash of 2008. I bought a house in 1989 and my interest rate was over 8%. In the late 1970’s I had CD’s earning 18% interest and interest for a home purchase was 21%. Nothing is skyrocketing.
I agree 4.5%, 5%, 6% and 6.5% are the sweet spot. I just wish the prices were lower
History shows people always make irresponsible financial decisions..The crash will absolutely happen it’s only a matter of time. Talk about overpaying..yikes.
Time will tell but the numbers are not showing a crash...
@@shawnshackelton2908 I’ve lived long enough to see a few there’s no way people can sustain this inflation…
I know your focus seems to be on Phoenix and the East Valley and I enjoy your videos, but I'd like to see you throw in more concentration on the West Valley too which is in many ways more affordable than the other areas.
Thanks for letting me know, I will work on adding more information about these areas!
@@shawn.shackelton Thanks Shawn!
Thanks, Shan; I am not looking for a house in Phoenix, but your analysis and advice are proving useful for me. Thanks for being clear and efficient without your presentation.
You are so welcome!
400k for a cardboard coffin in goodyear waooo ! We got californicated .
Shawn, this is a really great and informative video. It really breaks down the different segments of the market. I think we are finally starting to see the higher interest rates have an effect on the overall inventory of homes for sale. Some markets are obviously still hot but when we see things start to flatten out, that can be a positive sign for buyers.
I agree, the flattening of prices as well as those homes that have been on the market for a while. These sellers have to negotiate to get the home sold. Buyers have more negotiating power.
Excellent analysis balanced and data driven, but no bubble burst, specially when the fed starts lowering interest rates… but if you review other TH-camrs, every year is nothing but “ the bubble is bursting “ and of course all backed by their inconsistent data and charts and making references to things being worse than 2007… so in 2020 during the pandemic because people were losing their jobs, then 2022 with the end of forbearance, then in 2023 with the high interest rates, 2024 with the so called short term rental bubble… but yet in Tempe and Scottsdale, prices have only gone higher… regardless of how much everyone says there is a bubble popping. Yeah sure, sit on the sidelines and you’ll see prices drop, right… then 4 years later homes are up 30% to 40% 😒😟
There is a a big difference between 2007 and now! Very different market conditions. Yet you are right the “crash bros” continue talking about how the market is “crashing” hoping that if they say it long enough it will be right. They use made up charts & anyone who challenges them they will be kicked off their channel. I know a few this has happened to.
If you normalize your monthly numbers by dividing by the number of days in the month, the February dip may go away on the graph.
IT'S TO HOT HERE, THE HOMES THAT ARE 500,000 were 175,00 5 years AGO SO YEAH THEY NEED TO GO DOWN IN PRICE.
If you're going to buy a house in Maricopa county make sure to get a top home inspector. Do not get someone recommended by the realtor. And avoid HOAs like the plague.
For the last decade the houses built here are trash.
Look at 2637 N 83rd Pl, Scottsdale. Pending in 1 day. 2718 N 8th St, Phoenix. 2 days. 6117 N 71st Ln, Glendale. Same day. 2430 E Boulder Ave, Apache Junction. Same day. 1961 S 242nd Ave, Buckeye. Same day. And there are many others. The market looks RED HOT to me.
Issue at hand is buyer an individual that moves his family in or an investor/ group that artificially inflates value for their benefit, then flees area when bottom drops out and spends profit in Caymans? Thanks. Joy for neighbors who remain and enjoy falsely valued tax rates because 1 house sold to fool for an exorbitant high level Thanks again.
Stepford - like Fountain Hills is not economically disadvantaged. Stepford-like.
@@DouglasMcLaughlin-kq7hk Explain how an investor/group artificially inflates value.
Explain how 1 house sale can significantly affect tax rates for the neighbors.
@@joevarga5982 existing house price boosted by 9% affects neighbors as average is also boosted. Have others do same float and assessor sees tax dollars available. Friend bought 2 story home for $145k. One story across the street built at same builder, same time frame, just sold for $450k. You figure tax rate is uniform?
Yup, sure is. Seeing a +30% decline in areas were monitoring near Phoenix in the past 3-6 months alone. It's glorious. Enjoy the ride. 🎉
The market will move down after the record-breaking heat of summer, 2024, and winter will be warm.
What makes you think this?
Normally great videos from you Shawn. I was hoping for a more representative analysis. Yes, each sub-market is different, but selecting Chandler, Fountain Hills, Scottsdale, PV & Cave Creek to "drill down" into is certainly curated and was a missed opportunity to provide a fair analysis across the board.
Happy to tell you more about a city you are interested in. I did also talk about the 3 at the bottom of the list...
I own the LEAST valuable detached home, in Scottsdale AZ, 85260 zip code. When I bought it, 21 years ago, it was the least valuable. After spending over $60K on improvements (over the past 7 years, half of that in 2024), it’s still the least valuable home in 85260.. It makes me sad 😢
Did someone tell you what the value was?
@@shawn.shackelton Seems any agent who has ever come up with a list price for this house, always suggests pricing lower than any other comparable listing in 85260. Though the last time that was done was prior to the latest $30K worth of remodeling. Last September it was suggested to list for $549K. I see the current lowest price in 85260, for a true detached house, is $560K.. And this is 10 months later. See what I mean..
There is no burst
Classifying all of Phoenix as one market is ridiculous. I'm sure sales numbers vary greatly by zipcode or community. Comparing the Phoenix market to smaller places like Fountain Hills or Chandler doesn't show the big picture .
That’s exactly what I talked about… 😊
This vid is not going to age well.
Paradise schools are the worst ever, the families go to private schools. Scottsdale schools are horrible too, the parents that care go to private schools so all your left with is divorced families in the public schools in those two areas.
This is not my experience at all & I have kids in school in Scottsdale.
@@shawn.shackelton , yes we had to hire lawyers, and most of my neighbors in Arcadia pulled their kids out of the public schools after only a few years. Maybe you are fine with the wokeness and bullying.
@@timothyyoung4061 Was this at Hopi or another school in Arcadia? I ask because I've had clients wanting to get their kids into that school, and it has been one of the only schools that is full, so you have to live within the boundaries. Not Ok with wokeness or bulling at all!