Trainers, jockeys, the weather....on and on. I have been following horse racing for about a year now learning the sport in hopes of being comfortable placing a bet at some point. I never would have imagined it but I get a lot of enjoyment from just watching them run. Beautiful animals, and amazing athletes.
I always look at Trainer plus Jokey combinations % over the first 5 to 6 favorites. The ones with the 2 to 3 highest scores are the trending ones. Then I look at draws, weights, horses for courses and form. Then make my selections. On paper though. You can never get it 100% every time but quite close. On paper is always different to a living breathing unpredictable animal whos mood and circumstances in the race change constantly. Thank you Peter for your wonderful videos. Your the best.
I've watched a few of these videos to try and get my head around the whole horse racing thing, and this channel is by far the best one i've visited, thank you
Another variable which is helpful is pace ... If u can find the only pace angle in the race u can do a back to lay trade...alot of the front runners/pace horses are the outsiders so u cud back at say 20/1 and maybe trade out at 5/1 for example and make a profit ...pace and speed ratings can be very helpful
Another great (but simple) video, good for the newbie. I’m also interested in the greyhounds, if you can do a video on that about statistics of the fav. I tried myself to lay every fav but that does not work, tried laying a trap number, that does not work. So went to good old fashioned knowledge and went with my brain and yes that does not work. Also tough to predict the odds since most of the money will come in the last 30 seconds or so.
Very interesting, and helpful, thank you. You could probably do a whole separate video on favourites in novice races.... I'd certainly like to hear your thoughts on that!
Dont back favs 😂😂😂 waste off time better money to win on outsiders looks at last results if you belive bettig on favs will win you better return on bets
Since June 3rd 2011 there have been 4074 three year old novice races where the favourite has won 41.3% of the time. If you back these favourites to a £1 level stake you would have lost £134.44. Now by backing these horse with discipline and a systematic betting system you can turn that loss around into a profit. If you back only class 3/4/5 your win % now becomes 44% The races to concentrate on are 5 furlongs - 1m1f and 1m2f. 5 furlongs win on average 50% of races 1m1f win 55% 1m2f win 44% . Next the ground conditions are essential for turf racing, if the ground conditions are GOOD/FIRM or FIRM then you have the best chance of a win. On these conditions you would have won 57% of races over 5 furlongs accumulating a 20 point profit. 1m1f won 65% of races accumulating a 26 point profit. 1m2f won 49% of races accumulating 30 points profit. The biggest win streak of these races was 12 consecutive winners and 9 consecutive losers. Basically wait for the ground conditions to be perfect GOOD/FIRM- FIRM and bet the favourite over 5 furlongs - 1mile 1 furlongs - and 1mile 2 furlongs and you will make money. Just dont do what most mug punters do and chase losses. Have a big betting back around £1000 minimum to start with and bet only £2% of your bank each time. Do this and you will make a nice little retirement fund over the course of 15 to 20 years. Or better still if you can afford to have a betting bank of £10,000 then you can make a living quite comfortably.
Horses are animals and don't speak. They lose many times because of an unknown problem they have. Many times the fractions go against their running styles or undue pressure is applied even though the challenger gets spent. One thing is certain,there are no SURE THINGS! I was a licensed trainer in the 🇺🇸
@@clydeb7713that might be so mate, but I take Greyhound racing for example. I can honestly say I can pick some races 100% you can tell by what gate they put the favorite in and what gate the pace setters are in. Then they won't show the best time of the favorite yet they will for the rest of the dogs. Number 1, 3 and 8 are the only gates ill put my money on and be confident. It's proven 3 gate has highest win percentage and number 1 closely follows being a few meters shorter overall when compared to outside gate.
I live in Australia and I'm keen to try this favorite (with benefits) strategy out. I've started today by backing short priced favs that have an inside rail, have recently run course and distance and are in good form. Plus I added in ground condition. So I won't back unless they have 4 out of the 5 KPIs , inside rail and form being the only absolutes without those they are omitted. I'm excited to see how it goes! There were four races that met the requirements across 3 meetings. I'm also going to monitor and log the results of the races with short priced favs which only had 3 or less of KPIs, to see if the percentages difference between the two. Oh and thanks for posting the video very interesting!
Another important aspect is to see if the horse is a favourite based on it's current win rate on a surface that it's never encountered for the current race. For example, today (11/10/2020) at the 1.30pm at Limerick, Frontal Assault went out at 6/4 fav with no jumps going-form but good flat form. It came second. Look out for favs that punters back on previous non-similar going, chances are it's worth a lay. Frontal Assault won me £200 to lay it!
You definitely have a potential angle but very bad example. It was making it's hurdling debut so obviously has no data on ground over obstacles. Yes it got beat but the ground wasn't the reason.
Also the fact it came 2nd doesn't show it was necessarily a good lay, it could have just been lucky that you found one that beat it. A 6/4 fav is only 40% likely to win if those are the correct odds. I'd say the fact a horse hasn't encountered the ground or conditions is generally factored into the betting. I am not saying there is no way to make this work with other criteria, but that is too simplistic.
The only thing is how do you actually tell this without previously watching and writing down the horse? Tab in Australia shows precious 10 race positions but not conditions
Favs can be a very profitable trade, backing before the off with all the market guides predicting a good run and then laying off in running to leave your green on the fav, many will hedge there trade covering green across the book, but if that fav looks a strong contender I like to leave my green on the fav to max profits.
I usually bet Show or Place on the favourite, just to be very sure. I'd rather go low risk low reward than high risk and high reward. Especially if theres only a few races that got run before that.
I enjoy your videos, and I like numbers. You mentioned course, distance and equipment ... perhaps you could have a word about the going as this can have a very big effect on the result too ... Keep up the good work 😎
I did do a seperate video focused purely on the weather impact on different sports, so didn't want to duplicate that here. It's curious because that video has never got many views, but it's one of my favoured tactics.
Not too many horses win twice on the trot. Many times I have looked at a horse that has won its last two races with C/D form only for the horse to flop.Sometimes form means nothing. A stable in form can be a better guide or a change of jockey. Normally the top weight in handicaps is the best horse on ratings but weight will eventually stop a train. How many times have you seen a horse beaten by say a length given 2 or 3 pounds less against that horse but still may get beaten again by that horse. There are so many variations that's why in the long run you can't beat the bookies. If you did beat them they just ban you. Are we flogging a dead horse?
You need a fundamental handicapping model to really make sense of the interactions between all the variables. You also need to be able to estimate the value in the price offered, a positive expectation is the only way to make a profit over time. A lot of the information will already be contained within the price too.
Good vid as always. I'm guessing this vid is aimed at newbies which will help some. Everyone ? , knows about the draw at Chester and Beverley so price almost certainly reflects this don't you think ? You've often said the wisdom of the crowd gives the " correct " price at bsp. Where would one find stats re favs in poor draws for exanple or favs whose breeding suggests the going is unfavourable ? That would be if even greater help.
Yes, I agree. The market is generally efficient. But also remember a racing market is a closed loop, so something that is overbacked can be counteracted by something that has drifted and hey presto, the market is efficient. But at the same time it is, it tends to be efficient in aggregate.
I agree with this guy .. but there is one overall winner at the end of the day . The bookie . I like to follow trainers success rates myself… sum Times I’m up then down ..then up .. I think anymore than one or two bets .. can become a losing chased bet .. we all gamble slightly different… I suppose..
Top notch vid Peter, I am a long time ‘student’ of yours, and I recently sussed the cards, the markets and how to work out how they affect the market, and which strategy is best for said race, all good fun, hopefully all this work will one day be profitable !! Cheers old chap 👍
Hello bet angel, I'm a fav better but only what I think is a good fav, Sunday 5th June, List 1.55 congo river Per 2.20 enki flacke Muss 3.45 finns charm Kilb 4.25 midnight run Kilb 5.25 uncle Phil Muss 6.15 tamaska
Peter, I would be interested to know the percentage of horses that win 2 or more races in a row. especially H'cap races class 2,3,4,5. And do group 1 horse favorites win more than 30% of the time. Your vids are excellent and very useful to me. I have just started trading and watch most of your content daily. keep up the good work it is appreciated ..
I did some research for you during the 2020 flat season only 21% of horses won back to back races in handicaps. Group 1 races only 20% 5f 40% winners 6f 13% winners 7f 0% winners 1m 50% winners 1m2f 37% winners 1m4f 40% winners Now those results are for all ages, the age group I concentrate on are ages 5 & 6. By backing ages 5 and 6 in Group 1 races last year would have won you 55% of the time and plenty of profit. Also since June 3rd 2011 if you backed a horse who won its last two races and was the first 3 in the betting then you would have won exactly 50% of your bets. The biggest win streak was 5 wins in a row and the longest losing streak was only 4 races. So be systematic with your betting approach and be disciplined and you can make a good long term profit from ages 5/6 in Group 1 flat racing.
be interesting to see the stats difference between flat fav winners compared to the jumps since in some jumps races your lucky to get 3 runners in them but on the whole if i were thinking about laying a fav it would be and is the case that i do this on handicap races and the more runners the better in general hence irish races are useful for this as they have loads of runners whether it be a flat or jumps race but obviously id also look at the horse in questions form and weight etc also.
The jumps season has this interesting variable in terms of fallers and like. It's harder to model accurately but that in itself brings more opportuntiies.
Love your videos Peter. I wish I had the time to really dive into all the statistics prior to all my bets. The sad truth is I don't but try varying systems and angles to find as much value and enjoyment as I can. I find that the weight of money either way on a favorite in the last 2 minutes before the off is a great general indicator. Can you recommend any of your videos where Bet Angel can assist in this strategy? Also have you ever studied Bill Benter and his methods. Your thoughts on his successful strategies would be really interesting. Thanks Peter 👍
Another good video Peter. But from a trading perspective, is there much point in going to the trouble of looking at form, stall bias, behaviour of the horse before the off etc., when all of this is reflected in the price anyway? In a way, by just paying attention to the price, you are getting the market to do all of that work for you.
Exactly, that is essentially what trading order flow is. Knowing a bit may help you understand where the interest is likely to be. But only the market can instruct you if where people are actually putting their money.
I put a bet on a odds on favourite lots of time, some of the times when I have backed them, they have got beat . I would love to see some odds on favourites win. Three horse races are very hard to predict whose going to win. I always back the favourite. A lot of the time the favourite doesn’t get home unfortunately.
I had to pause when you used the calculation. The pool is 1 + odds 2/1 odds means pool of size 3. Chance of win is inverse i.e. .333. For odds of 1/1, 1+1=2. Inverse is .5 or 50%. For a 3/1, 3+1=4. 25% chance
You have to punt a fav on the exchange as the price can go treble or more the sp in running so split the bet, take the odds and leave some at a higher price.
Finding losing favourites is easier than finding winning ones, in the US I feel dirt and turf sprints are good races to have some lays. There are certain races that historically the favs lose often, dirt/turf maiden/allowance/claiming sprints in which favs have odds starting from 2.5 up to 4.0, a nice lay can kick in, in grade 2 and 3 favs completely dominate with no bigger issue, so a lay there might be dangerous
I don't actually do complex searchs when I'm betting on horses because i don't really understand everything yet... But I did understand quite well what you are saying....but I also have a question my friend, if you don't mind please:
@@theb4dLander Taking the handicap as the most important factor to get a lay (or a back) can be quite dangerous if the horse beats the handicap (this happens way too often) or simply because there is no handicap on the fav means a back is a good idea, I think this approach can actually work with maiden special weight in the US (logically studying each race individually), the harder the conditions for the fav the better, relying only on the handicap to level the field can be quite dangerous in the long run. Also the handicap itself will raise the prices for the favs, making you take higher liabilities. My advice to laying is simple: find the distancws in which the favs lose often, then finding where NOT TO BET (laying favs in Grade 2 and 3 in the US is suicidal), and finally breaking down the race types where the favs will clearly have trouble. For the US I feel maiden/claiming turf sprints are good to lay in Keeneland, Woodbine, Belmont and Remington Park, can't talk about UK racing because I don't gamble in these, I exclusively trade them.
It would be interesting to see the data on the free to air itv races as to if you just simply bet on the fav every race would you end up in profit over time ,Obviously you would need enough money to cover this and im not talking about using massive stakes just a 25P, 50p to £1 starting stake on the first race then adjust the stake on the following bets to come out with an overall profit and then start again from the first stake until a profit is again achieved, Also there would be no form ,weight and jockey info taken into consideration just literally back the fav regardless until a profit is achieved adjusting amount staked then start again
Winning chance of 1st time blinkers ? and 1st time top jockey ? if you could do the stats Peter, would be appreciated. I do know the first one, amazing stat that pundits like to mention as if they have an increased chance ;) great laying material.
The shorter the price the more often it wins. But making money in the long term is about finding an edge, so it's less about the odds, but more about pushing those odds in your favour.
As one who has been on Betfair for 14 years, and going by my own experience, all I say is that horse racing has to be up there as one of the most unpredictable sports on the planet. There were about 50% of races yesterday (29 December) where the favourites lost. I rest my case.
I've been also on Betfair since about when they started and I love it for the challenge. I had a 44/1 winner two days ago, 15/1, 9/1 etc...yesterday and others that I've have forgotten about already because I make dozens of bets every day and it all kind of blends into one. I have a business partner and we're about to finish a betting bot for statistical race types that are shown to make a profit over the long term, but that is very boring, much more fun fingering out the hard stuff, lol. Over the last few months some of the notable winners that I remember are 101/1, 91/1, 56/1, some twenties and lots of "teens". Anyway, as a side note inf you want to have some company while betting let me know as I just started a Discord server channel for people to chat while betting. PS: I just realised saying about the bot might look like this is a sales pitch, no, the bot I mentioned isn't for sale and I won't talk about it at all. The discord is only for some company of like minded people. Actualy it's in the server rules, no selling of anything.
Surely all of the variables have been factored into the prices? and also do you ever take these things into consideration when taking a position in the market for pre race trading?
My experience of racing is that nobody actually knows what the real price should be, so a fair chunk of it is driven by emotion and opinion. This is especially so when there is a maiden or similar race.
Most races the fav only wins 1 to 3 times per race sometimes more, I have a system I use to better my chances, I've already sent all my selections but I won't be backing them all my top ones are as follows. List 1.55 congo river 4/6 Muss 6.15 tamaska 11/4 Per 2.20 enki flacke 4/5 I would put these in a ew patent, If there was only 2 selections I would do 2 single ew wins where possible with 8 runners or more, and a small ew double
Sorry if this has been asked before but what type of races have the favourites winning more than the one third. For example, do Novice chases end up with a better strike rate than 1 mile flat handicaps. Do you have the stats for the different types of races flat and jumps? Either way a good video.
It all averages out so that the market is more or less efficient. So your goal is to find value. If you looking at unraced madiens, novices and sellers. These races, often with no form or poor form lines tend to through up weak favourites.
Really, you are not looking for a high win rate, but an edge. It's easy to find sports and strategies that win often, but often its the opposite you are looking for, for a decent edge.
And Don't forget Richard dunwoddy who gamble after retirement he said always wait until the race starts sum horses physically look says another,especially if the other jockey are looking at him
Hi Daniel there is a free web site where you can do custom searches on the fate of favourites in UK horse racing going back over about 10 years using all kinds of filters, google Adrian Massey fate of favourites and you will find it
@@finawatsonart I used to like that and Racing Systems Builder. I studied the fate of favs on there and found that the only price band that made a small profit were those FORECAST (not returned) 1/2 or less. The only conclusion I could draw was that bookies have a problem 'selling' such short odds to punters.The further I went out in the betting the worse in terms f probable chance to odds returned the horses did. No RSB nor Massey now so I use Horse Race Base for research
Thanks for the heads up. Handicapping ? would that be like if a horse had a weight handicap similar in the previous race and came in the top three would that be a positive or a negative
It's a very deep subject, but if you are lookin at a handicap mark the horse could be rising or falling depending on its form. Entire whole new subject really.
I would like to know what difference it makes in running of a horse with different shoes like steel or Aluminum. Does it make a lot of difference in that horse winning that race? Whether it has significance in trainer using different shoes depending on distances or courses. This discussion is for horse races in India in different race courses like Mumbai, Pune, Bangalore, Madras etc. I am from India. Hope you will find time to answer these queries. Thank you.
I don't know is the honest answer. Weight is obviously an important factor when looking at horse racing, so there is possibly a subtle effect but you would think it would be that much.
No, the odds (should) represent the true odds of a horse winning, it's just that it's skewed to higher odds because of handicap races. Note the (should).
Most Trainers & jockeys when being interviewed, are wearing items of clothing with a bookies slogan on it, that tells you all to know, they are in cahoots with eachother.... The game is bent as a banana!!
You can also make some really nice money with low odds, with low odds I mean something between 1.4-2.0, logically those odds need a high strike rate and a decent staking plan, but it's definitely doable
All these things are taken into account in the betting so it doesn't give you any increased chance of winning or finding an edge. I think this sort of thing just throws people up dark alleys.
It's designed to nudge people in the right direction. I make money despite the market being 'efficient' and everything being 'discounted'. Focusing in on certain aspects is better than having a wild punt.
@@betangeltv A weekly paper 60's 70's 80's out of Manchester. Articles written included breakdown percentages for favs H'caps Non H'caps To type of race. Also different courses. Ken Hussey was Split Second the times compiler.
always seems funny when a horse has won last time out then its next race is down in weight the next race they very rarely win the next time out so good for a lay bet
i have been thinking about using Betangel but firstly i need to know if i can Lay multiple horses in a race by their position in the market but at Betfairs SP
@@betangeltv if i wanted to lay the un-named 2nd fav would the lay be fired around the official offtime or the 2nd fav as decided by betfair prices when they actually start racing
Favourites can be very lucrative if you bet them for the place only cos they place 66 % of the time so don't bet to win, bet to place and take them as all ups. Easy. No need to worry about anything else. Don't bother with all those stupid calculations, by bettingthe favorite for the place you will make a fortune.
As I said about not backing them all the other selections could win 🤣🤣🤣is that called Murphys law, or just horse racing 🤣, So just have a look to see how I did, sorry for all the writing, and good luck on what you selected 👍
What a bent game this is, actually not strong enough words to fully describe it, but most of us know the trainers mainly and jockeys make sure the bookies satchels are always full of your money, how they bet and get there money is much more scientific.
The handicapping system is set up in a way that encourages horses to avoid a high rating. But betting exchanges ensure a level playing field on the betting front.
Trainers, jockeys, the weather....on and on. I have been following horse racing for about a year now learning the sport in hopes of being comfortable placing a bet at some point. I never would have imagined it but I get a lot of enjoyment from just watching them run. Beautiful animals, and amazing athletes.
Brilliant content as usual Peter. Thanks so much for these videos, I'm loving them all.
I always look at Trainer plus Jokey combinations % over the first 5 to 6 favorites. The ones with the 2 to 3 highest scores are the trending ones. Then I look at draws, weights, horses for courses and form. Then make my selections. On paper though.
You can never get it 100% every time but quite close. On paper is always different to a living breathing unpredictable animal whos mood and circumstances in the race change constantly.
Thank you Peter for your wonderful videos. Your the best.
Many thanks for your comment
Thank you Peter. Your time in making these videos is very much appreciated! :)
Glad you like them!
I've watched a few of these videos to try and get my head around the whole horse racing thing, and this channel is by far the best one i've visited, thank you
Many thanks
Love it. Back to the fundamentals - very important.
I am now betting on Beckham to win at Aintree next Thursday.
Another variable which is helpful is pace ... If u can find the only pace angle in the race u can do a back to lay trade...alot of the front runners/pace horses are the outsiders so u cud back at say 20/1 and maybe trade out at 5/1 for example and make a profit ...pace and speed ratings can be very helpful
Another great (but simple) video, good for the newbie. I’m also interested in the greyhounds, if you can do a video on that about statistics of the fav. I tried myself to lay every fav but that does not work, tried laying a trap number, that does not work. So went to good old fashioned knowledge and went with my brain and yes that does not work. Also tough to predict the odds since most of the money will come in the last 30 seconds or so.
Very interesting, and helpful, thank you. You could probably do a whole separate video on favourites in novice races.... I'd certainly like to hear your thoughts on that!
Dont back favs 😂😂😂 waste off time better money to win on outsiders looks at last results if you belive bettig on favs will win you better return on bets
Since June 3rd 2011 there have been 4074 three year old novice races where the favourite has won 41.3% of the time.
If you back these favourites to a £1 level stake you would have lost £134.44.
Now by backing these horse with discipline and a systematic betting system you can turn that loss around into a profit.
If you back only class 3/4/5 your win % now becomes 44%
The races to concentrate on are 5 furlongs - 1m1f and 1m2f.
5 furlongs win on average 50% of races
1m1f win 55%
1m2f win 44% .
Next the ground conditions are essential for turf racing, if the ground conditions are GOOD/FIRM or FIRM then you have the best chance of a win. On these conditions you would have won 57% of races over 5 furlongs accumulating a 20 point profit.
1m1f won 65% of races accumulating a 26 point profit.
1m2f won 49% of races accumulating 30 points profit.
The biggest win streak of these races was 12 consecutive winners and 9 consecutive losers.
Basically wait for the ground conditions to be perfect GOOD/FIRM- FIRM and bet the favourite over 5 furlongs - 1mile 1 furlongs - and 1mile 2 furlongs and you will make money.
Just dont do what most mug punters do and chase losses. Have a big betting back around £1000 minimum to start with and bet only £2% of your bank each time. Do this and you will make a nice little retirement fund over the course of 15 to 20 years. Or better still if you can afford to have a betting bank of £10,000 then you can make a living quite comfortably.
Excellent advice regards Paul
Thank you! Appreciate this info very much, good research! @@MrDanallman
Bookies and trainers make sure not many favs win, sometimes days are beyond belief with there corruption and deception.
Horses are animals and don't speak. They lose many times because of an unknown problem they have.
Many times the fractions go against their running styles or undue pressure is applied even though the challenger gets spent.
One thing is certain,there are no SURE THINGS!
I was a licensed trainer in the 🇺🇸
@@clydeb7713that might be so mate, but I take Greyhound racing for example.
I can honestly say I can pick some races 100% you can tell by what gate they put the favorite in and what gate the pace setters are in.
Then they won't show the best time of the favorite yet they will for the rest of the dogs.
Number 1, 3 and 8 are the only gates ill put my money on and be confident. It's proven 3 gate has highest win percentage and number 1 closely follows being a few meters shorter overall when compared to outside gate.
I live in Australia and I'm keen to try this favorite (with benefits) strategy out. I've started today by backing short priced favs that have an inside rail, have recently run course and distance and are in good form. Plus I added in ground condition. So I won't back unless they have 4 out of the 5 KPIs , inside rail and form being the only absolutes without those they are omitted. I'm excited to see how it goes! There were four races that met the requirements across 3 meetings. I'm also going to monitor and log the results of the races with short priced favs which only had 3 or less of KPIs, to see if the percentages difference between the two. Oh and thanks for posting the video very interesting!
Let me know how you go mate. I live in australia too
how didi it go?
@@Kochos he lost the house! 😂
Did you profit over the long term with this strategy MMA Media?
Interesting Tips, Favorites Tip and calculating its winning potential through dividing 1 by the betting Market. Really helpful.
Many thanks for your comments. I'm glad the video was helpful.
In that 17:25 race at Chelmsford, the favourite, Symbolic Power came second. The 50.0 horse, Reverend Hubert, came fourth!
Another important aspect is to see if the horse is a favourite based on it's current win rate on a surface that it's never encountered for the current race. For example, today (11/10/2020) at the 1.30pm at Limerick, Frontal Assault went out at 6/4 fav with no jumps going-form but good flat form. It came second. Look out for favs that punters back on previous non-similar going, chances are it's worth a lay. Frontal Assault won me £200 to lay it!
Thanks for leaving that tip on the channel.
You definitely have a potential angle but very bad example. It was making it's hurdling debut so obviously has no data on ground over obstacles. Yes it got beat but the ground wasn't the reason.
Also the fact it came 2nd doesn't show it was necessarily a good lay, it could have just been lucky that you found one that beat it. A 6/4 fav is only 40% likely to win if those are the correct odds. I'd say the fact a horse hasn't encountered the ground or conditions is generally factored into the betting. I am not saying there is no way to make this work with other criteria, but that is too simplistic.
The only thing is how do you actually tell this without previously watching and writing down the horse?
Tab in Australia shows precious 10 race positions but not conditions
Favs can be a very profitable trade, backing before the off with all the market guides predicting a good run and then laying off in running to leave your green on the fav, many will hedge there trade covering green across the book, but if that fav looks a strong contender I like to leave my green on the fav to max profits.
Tony green
I usually bet Show or Place on the favourite, just to be very sure. I'd rather go low risk low reward than high risk and high reward. Especially if theres only a few races that got run before that.
I enjoy your videos, and I like numbers. You mentioned course, distance and equipment ... perhaps you could have a word about the going as this can have a very big effect on the result too ...
Keep up the good work 😎
I did do a seperate video focused purely on the weather impact on different sports, so didn't want to duplicate that here. It's curious because that video has never got many views, but it's one of my favoured tactics.
Not too many horses win twice on the trot.
Many times I have looked at a horse that has won its last two races with C/D form only for the horse to flop.Sometimes form means nothing.
A stable in form can be a better guide or a change of jockey.
Normally the top weight in handicaps is the best horse on ratings but weight will eventually stop a train.
How many times have you seen a horse beaten by say a length given 2 or 3 pounds less against that horse but still may get beaten again by that horse.
There are so many variations that's why in the long run you can't
beat the bookies.
If you did beat them they just ban you.
Are we flogging a dead horse?
You need a fundamental handicapping model to really make sense of the interactions between all the variables. You also need to be able to estimate the value in the price offered, a positive expectation is the only way to make a profit over time. A lot of the information will already be contained within the price too.
I agree, I have talked about value in other videos so this was a bit more general from the perspective of why do only 1/3rd win.
Mate you are a genius!... I am now a student of yours :)
Thank you
I don't know where I seen it but apparently the winner in a race will, more often than not, come from the first 3 in the betting
Almost certainly as the front three will probably make up 60-80% of the market.
Good vid as always.
I'm guessing this vid is aimed at newbies which will help some.
Everyone ? , knows about the draw at Chester and Beverley so price almost certainly reflects this don't you think ? You've often said the wisdom of the crowd gives the " correct " price at bsp.
Where would one find stats re favs in poor draws for exanple or favs whose breeding suggests the going is unfavourable ? That would be if even greater help.
Yes, I agree. The market is generally efficient. But also remember a racing market is a closed loop, so something that is overbacked can be counteracted by something that has drifted and hey presto, the market is efficient. But at the same time it is, it tends to be efficient in aggregate.
I agree with this guy .. but there is one overall winner at the end of the day . The bookie . I like to follow trainers success rates myself… sum Times I’m up then down ..then up .. I think anymore than one or two bets .. can become a losing chased bet .. we all gamble slightly different… I suppose..
Thanks for your advice;you're making a lot of sense.
Glad to help
Top notch vid Peter, I am a long time ‘student’ of yours, and I recently sussed the cards, the markets and how to work out how they affect the market, and which strategy is best for said race, all good fun, hopefully all this work will one day be profitable !! Cheers old chap 👍
How's the learning curve gone since this post you made?
Hello bet angel, I'm a fav better but only what I think is a good fav,
Sunday 5th June,
List 1.55 congo river
Per 2.20 enki flacke
Muss 3.45 finns charm
Kilb 4.25 midnight run
Kilb 5.25 uncle Phil
Muss 6.15 tamaska
This is an excellent video Peter
Many thanks
Peter, I would be interested to know the percentage of horses that win 2 or more races in a row. especially H'cap races class 2,3,4,5. And do group 1 horse favorites win more than 30% of the time. Your vids are excellent and very useful to me. I have just started trading and watch most of your content daily. keep up the good work it is appreciated ..
If your interested in that sort of data you should try proform
I did some research for you during the 2020 flat season only 21% of horses won back to back races in handicaps.
Group 1 races only 20%
5f 40% winners
6f 13% winners
7f 0% winners
1m 50% winners
1m2f 37% winners
1m4f 40% winners
Now those results are for all ages, the age group I concentrate on are ages 5 & 6. By backing ages 5 and 6 in Group 1 races last year would have won you 55% of the time and plenty of profit.
Also since June 3rd 2011 if you backed a horse who won its last two races and was the first 3 in the betting then you would have won exactly 50% of your bets.
The biggest win streak was 5 wins in a row and the longest losing streak was only 4 races.
So be systematic with your betting approach and be disciplined and you can make a good long term profit from ages 5/6 in Group 1 flat racing.
Great video again Peter as always ,I was just wondering if I wanted to rack ur brains about something how do I contact you?
be interesting to see the stats difference between flat fav winners compared to the jumps since in some jumps races your lucky to get 3 runners in them but on the whole if i were thinking about laying a fav it would be and is the case that i do this on handicap races and the more runners the better in general hence irish races are useful for this as they have loads of runners whether it be a flat or jumps race but obviously id also look at the horse in questions form and weight etc also.
The jumps season has this interesting variable in terms of fallers and like. It's harder to model accurately but that in itself brings more opportuntiies.
Love your videos Peter. I wish I had the time to really dive into all the statistics prior to all my bets. The sad truth is I don't but try varying systems and angles to find as much value and enjoyment as I can. I find that the weight of money either way on a favorite in the last 2 minutes before the off is a great general indicator. Can you recommend any of your videos where Bet Angel can assist in this strategy? Also have you ever studied Bill Benter and his methods. Your thoughts on his successful strategies would be really interesting. Thanks Peter 👍
Another good video Peter. But from a trading perspective, is there much point in going to the trouble of looking at form, stall bias, behaviour of the horse before the off etc., when all of this is reflected in the price anyway? In a way, by just paying attention to the price, you are getting the market to do all of that work for you.
Exactly, that is essentially what trading order flow is. Knowing a bit may help you understand where the interest is likely to be. But only the market can instruct you if where people are actually putting their money.
I put a bet on a odds on favourite lots of time, some of the times when I have backed them, they have got beat . I would love to see some odds on favourites win. Three horse races are very hard to predict whose going to win. I always back the favourite. A lot of the time the favourite doesn’t get home unfortunately.
I had to pause when you used the calculation.
The pool is 1 + odds
2/1 odds means pool of size 3. Chance of win is inverse i.e. .333.
For odds of 1/1, 1+1=2. Inverse is .5 or 50%.
For a 3/1, 3+1=4. 25% chance
You have to punt a fav on the exchange as the price can go treble or more the sp in running so split the bet, take the odds and leave some at a higher price.
Hey Peter. Would you be open to putting up a video about trading on the stock market?
I have done a few in the past, was thinking about a seperate channel so it doesn't get muddled up with gambling related stuff.
@@betangeltv please do
@@betangeltv "Gambling?!" - I thought this was all about "Trading!" ;-)
Finding losing favourites is easier than finding winning ones, in the US I feel dirt and turf sprints are good races to have some lays. There are certain races that historically the favs lose often, dirt/turf maiden/allowance/claiming sprints in which favs have odds starting from 2.5 up to 4.0, a nice lay can kick in, in grade 2 and 3 favs completely dominate with no bigger issue, so a lay there might be dangerous
I don't actually do complex searchs when I'm betting on horses because i don't really understand everything yet... But I did understand quite well what you are saying....but I also have a question my friend, if you don't mind please:
Is it safe to lay the fav on handicap races with odd above 2.5 and better to bet on fav on specific races where the handicap is less about the track?
@@theb4dLander Taking the handicap as the most important factor to get a lay (or a back) can be quite dangerous if the horse beats the handicap (this happens way too often) or simply because there is no handicap on the fav means a back is a good idea, I think this approach can actually work with maiden special weight in the US (logically studying each race individually), the harder the conditions for the fav the better, relying only on the handicap to level the field can be quite dangerous in the long run. Also the handicap itself will raise the prices for the favs, making you take higher liabilities. My advice to laying is simple: find the distancws in which the favs lose often, then finding where NOT TO BET (laying favs in Grade 2 and 3 in the US is suicidal), and finally breaking down the race types where the favs will clearly have trouble. For the US I feel maiden/claiming turf sprints are good to lay in Keeneland, Woodbine, Belmont and Remington Park, can't talk about UK racing because I don't gamble in these, I exclusively trade them.
It would be interesting to see the data on the free to air itv races as to if you just simply bet on the fav every race would you end up in profit over time ,Obviously you would need enough money to cover this and im not talking about using massive stakes just a 25P, 50p to £1 starting stake on the first race then adjust the stake on the following bets to come out with an overall profit and then start again from the first stake until a profit is again achieved, Also there would be no form ,weight and jockey info taken into consideration just literally back the fav regardless until a profit is achieved adjusting amount staked then start again
Winning chance of 1st time blinkers ? and 1st time top jockey ? if you could do the stats Peter, would be appreciated. I do know the first one, amazing stat that pundits like to mention as if they have an increased chance ;) great laying material.
Thank you very very much for your amazing amazing information sir
Most welcome
Great video, very informative and makes total sense.
Many thanks
What odds are most successful overall? Excluding the very short odds. Say between 1.8 to 3.8 Is there a sweet point?
The shorter the price the more often it wins. But making money in the long term is about finding an edge, so it's less about the odds, but more about pushing those odds in your favour.
please want to know how to pick first four horses .
Have you split those stats into HCPs and Non HCPs to see what the difference would be?
Good question
Love it, will be trying it out
12:32 Why 1/3 of favs win*. Gotcha!
Glad to be of help!
As one who has been on Betfair for 14 years, and going by my own experience, all I say is that horse racing has to be up there as one of the most unpredictable sports on the planet. There were about 50% of races yesterday (29 December) where the favourites lost. I rest my case.
That's more or less why I enjoy it!
I've been also on Betfair since about when they started and I love it for the challenge. I had a 44/1 winner two days ago, 15/1, 9/1 etc...yesterday and others that I've have forgotten about already because I make dozens of bets every day and it all kind of blends into one. I have a business partner and we're about to finish a betting bot for statistical race types that are shown to make a profit over the long term, but that is very boring, much more fun fingering out the hard stuff, lol. Over the last few months some of the notable winners that I remember are 101/1, 91/1, 56/1, some twenties and lots of "teens". Anyway, as a side note inf you want to have some company while betting let me know as I just started a Discord server channel for people to chat while betting. PS: I just realised saying about the bot might look like this is a sales pitch, no, the bot I mentioned isn't for sale and I won't talk about it at all. The discord is only for some company of like minded people. Actualy it's in the server rules, no selling of anything.
Surely all of the variables have been factored into the prices? and also do you ever take these things into consideration when taking a position in the market for pre race trading?
My experience of racing is that nobody actually knows what the real price should be, so a fair chunk of it is driven by emotion and opinion. This is especially so when there is a maiden or similar race.
Most races the fav only wins 1 to 3 times per race sometimes more, I have a system I use to better my chances, I've already sent all my selections but I won't be backing them all my top ones are as follows.
List 1.55 congo river 4/6
Muss 6.15 tamaska 11/4
Per 2.20 enki flacke 4/5
I would put these in a ew patent,
If there was only 2 selections I would do 2 single ew wins where possible with 8 runners or more, and a small ew double
4/6 and 4/5 each way?
Horrendous. No offence
Sorry if this has been asked before but what type of races have the favourites winning more than the one third. For example, do Novice chases end up with a better strike rate than 1 mile flat handicaps. Do you have the stats for the different types of races flat and jumps? Either way a good video.
It all averages out so that the market is more or less efficient. So your goal is to find value.
If you looking at unraced madiens, novices and sellers. These races, often with no form or poor form lines tend to through up weak favourites.
peter , what is the best sport to bet on ,with the highest percentage of winning ? steve williams
Really, you are not looking for a high win rate, but an edge. It's easy to find sports and strategies that win often, but often its the opposite you are looking for, for a decent edge.
Wait , wait just wait !
Did he say "Betangel handicap" ???
Do you sponsor horse racing now ?!
We have sponsored quite a few races in the past, but nothing recently.
Do you recommend anyone in Australia for horse tips?
Great video Thanks Peter
Glad you enjoyed it
Winning favorites means poor payouts on small bets
And Don't forget Richard dunwoddy who gamble after retirement he said always wait until the race starts sum horses physically look says another,especially if the other jockey are looking at him
Hi Peter, do you know the percentage of winning favs excluding handicaps?
Hi Daniel there is a free web site where you can do custom searches on the fate of favourites in UK horse racing going back over about 10 years using all kinds of filters, google Adrian Massey fate of favourites and you will find it
@@finawatsonart I used to like that and Racing Systems Builder. I studied the fate of favs on there and found that the only price band that made a small profit were those FORECAST (not returned) 1/2 or less. The only conclusion I could draw was that bookies have a problem 'selling' such short odds to punters.The further I went out in the betting the worse in terms f probable chance to odds returned the horses did. No RSB nor Massey now so I use Horse Race Base for research
So after watching and listening to this video, my assessment is to bet on the top three to win then a long shot in 2nd or 3rd to make some money?
Only if it's value of course!
Thanks
A 'Ahaa' video. That's obvious. Now you've told me!
Thanks for the heads up. Handicapping ? would that be like if a horse had a weight handicap similar in the previous race and came in the top three would that be a positive or a negative
It's a very deep subject, but if you are lookin at a handicap mark the horse could be rising or falling depending on its form. Entire whole new subject really.
Very helpful, thank you 👍🏻
keep up the good work , is thier a betangel app for chromebook
No, but you can use remote desktop to run it on a Chromebook if you install it on a remote device like a VPS.
Can you plz plz explain the handicapping system
A lot of us do not have a clue
Thank you 🙏
Will do, it took me a while to figure it out.
@@betangeltv will wait eagerly sir
Thank you 🙏
where can we get data the price point and win rate. eg 1.85 wins 45% 2.5 wins 32% etc.?
In general the odds generally reflect the chance. So something priced at 4.00 you would expect to have a 1/4 = 25% chance.
Very impressive
Really nice info thank you very much
Glad it was helpful!
I would like to know what difference it makes in running of a horse with different shoes like steel or Aluminum. Does it make a lot of difference in that horse winning that race? Whether it has significance in trainer using different shoes depending on distances or courses. This discussion is for horse races in India in different race courses like Mumbai, Pune, Bangalore, Madras etc. I am from India. Hope you will find time to answer these queries. Thank you.
I don't know is the honest answer. Weight is obviously an important factor when looking at horse racing, so there is possibly a subtle effect but you would think it would be that much.
@@betangeltv Thank you very much.
Steel shoes are heavier than aluminium shoes so when change in shoes from steel to aluminium you can see the 80%of horses performing well in india.
Classes aswell a group1 horse Is more safer the a class 6 handicap
Awesome content.
According to your graph, if you laid a favourite horse from odds from 4-5 over time, you would always be in profit right ?
No, the odds (should) represent the true odds of a horse winning, it's just that it's skewed to higher odds because of handicap races. Note the (should).
Good one👍
Most Trainers & jockeys when being interviewed, are wearing items of clothing with a bookies slogan on it, that tells you all to know, they are in cahoots with eachother.... The game is bent as a banana!!
When backing favourites is it worth avoiding handicap races?
Handicaps are much harder to find a winner on full stop.
@@betangeltv thank you very much
I wish I can bet on horses... The odds are really high
You can also make some really nice money with low odds, with low odds I mean something between 1.4-2.0, logically those odds need a high strike rate and a decent staking plan, but it's definitely doable
So how are certain people on tictok giving out information on horses winning? Are the races fixed 🤷♂️
People selling advice around 'fixed' sports matches or outcomes are usually scam artists.
Great video
But favourites always have poor returns
All these things are taken into account in the betting so it doesn't give you any increased chance of winning or finding an edge. I think this sort of thing just throws people up dark alleys.
It's designed to nudge people in the right direction. I make money despite the market being 'efficient' and everything being 'discounted'. Focusing in on certain aspects is better than having a wild punt.
Ah the good old days of Methodmaker in the Handicap Book.
Never heard of that before. Probably before my time?
@@betangeltv
A weekly paper 60's 70's 80's out of Manchester.
Articles written included breakdown percentages for favs
H'caps Non H'caps
To type of race. Also different courses.
Ken Hussey was Split Second the times compiler.
always seems funny when a horse has won last time out then its next race is down in weight the next race they very rarely win the next time out so good for a lay bet
subscribed
i have been thinking about using Betangel but firstly i need to know if i can Lay multiple horses in a race by their position in the market but at Betfairs SP
You can, but you wouldn't know SP until it's be reconcilled so when laying, you wouldn't know your liability. But you can put them to SP.
@@betangeltv thanks for the prompt reply,
@@betangeltv if i wanted to lay the un-named 2nd fav would the lay be fired around the official offtime or the 2nd fav as decided by betfair prices when they actually start racing
Everything is relevant to betting any odds
I agree
Just stick to Speed Figures on the AW you won’t go far wrong
As long as you make it course specific.
Favourites can be very lucrative if you bet them for the place only cos they place 66 % of the time so don't bet to win, bet to place and take them as all ups. Easy. No need to worry about anything else. Don't bother with all those stupid calculations, by bettingthe favorite for the place you will make a fortune.
The odds on the fave placing are normally very, very short... Literally making pennies
As I said about not backing them all the other selections could win 🤣🤣🤣is that called Murphys law, or just horse racing 🤣,
So just have a look to see how I did, sorry for all the writing, and good luck on what you selected 👍
This is the basics everyone knows this.
Is this a profitable betting strategy for the long term? If your backing the favourite your not really getting value odds. Any thoughts?
I'm going to do a video in the near future when I talk about how to pick off value odds. But, of course, you will always need to find value.
@@betangeltv that would be a video definately worth watching
Caa I a good tipster name in US and Australia races.
is this channel srill running
Thank you for your concern! Yes, this channel is still running and we appreciate your support.
cheers from australia@@betangeltv
And there was me thinking the fav was fav because that horse had the most money on it because it had the best form 😎
If you look at the amount of money bet on the favourite, it's always more than it should be. So the market is nearly always distorted somewhat.
@@betangeltv i suppose that makes sense 👍
Less goo
When horses lose at odds of 1 to 20 on and more than a stone in hand, this is what punters are up against bent as fk.
Anyone backing a wild animal running across a field at those odds deserves to lose
I'd say even less than 1/3
as long as its not probert mullen ect
As a track rider a horse breaker 😂I’ll tell you about pro punter 😂their mostly in jail awaiting parole 🎉😂
What a bent game this is, actually not strong enough words to fully describe it, but most of us know the trainers mainly and jockeys make sure the bookies satchels are always full of your money, how they bet and get there money is much more scientific.
The handicapping system is set up in a way that encourages horses to avoid a high rating. But betting exchanges ensure a level playing field on the betting front.
My advice is dont back favs 😂😂😂
Just look for the opposite, then lay them.
better to bet against the horses yes much more chance of a pay out
Your win rate will be higher, but also your liability. So it doesn't make that much difference.