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Betting Strategies in Horse Racing: Hugh Taylor and Kevin Blake
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 14 พ.ค. 2020
- In part two of this exclusive attheraces.com Betting Special, ‘Backing Winners’, Hugh Taylor and Kevin Blake home in on their betting strategies and the all-important winner-backing process. The two experts cover topics such as value betting, the importance of price when betting on horses, stride data and the significance of staking plans. Enjoy as Hugh and Kevin feed off their incomparable experience and expertise to explain the best way to back winners in horse racing.
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These are the two top judges in mainstream racing media, the shrewdies know this.
Does kev still have his no lose Ladbrokes account ? And can he make it pay without it (I bet odds on no)
To calculate your EXPECTED LOSING RUN (EPL) … say from 500 selections
EPL = log(500) / (-(log(1-SR)
Where SR = strike rate ❤
I think the key thing is to work out in your mind which horse is going to win the race you are looking to. Which horse is likely to be in peak form on the day. Som eof my better selections are horses than ran very poorly last time or are making their seasonal reappearance. Probably works better in lower-grade racing rather than the biggest races, though and in particular at the lower-grade meetings on the bigger racing days,
I combine that by considering what class of race a horse ran well in, and the abilities of horses it beat. "Hot races" are a valid way of looking at things, even if they are rather old-school nowadays. In fact, fact they are somewhat old-school, means that less people use these ways of looking at races, which means you are probably getting better value.
It’s got nothing to do with which horse you think will win the race . If you are not BEATING the SP on a regular basis you are DOOMED .
Are you a long term winner ?
I’d say definitely not ❤
@@RoyChadwick51 Most punters beat SP. To be profitable a punter needs to beat SP by a fairly significant margin. I was once on a Grand National Preview panel with a bookmaker rep . In the interval I asked why they'd closed my account when imo I was not that much in profit? He said they were no different to any other bookmaker; if the punter 's winners beat SP by an average of over 20% then the account is closed... To save them losing more money.
Liquid cash from betting in your account is value, if you strongly fancy a horse that wins above levels that’s value.
Only one horse is a value price. The winner. People waffle on about value without knowing what it actually is.
Chiv . Your parents made one big mistake having you .
not correct, if you bet on red or black at roulette and you were offered 5/4 against red, that would be a value bet win or lose, and in the long term you would be a winner
A value bet for me, is I back dogs normally, other night I backed a dog early price 6/1, went off 5/2, came 2nd.... That's value. I didn't back each way. I got good run for my money
I think the key thing is whether you are betting your winners at a bigger price than SP. If you regularly do this, then you have obtained overall value
Hugh looks like a young Sean O'Rourke 😁
This video would have been better value without all the crappy ads!
I generally back bigger value horses .The horses 16 /1 up .i dont bother much with form however if it gets the trip or has been running over the trip then thats good .going well that a main .Also i try to imagine the end of the race and i do ew all the time
"16/1 and up" is not what they mean as "value" William... And not what true value is when it comes to making a profit from horse racing. What the word "value" means to different punters is the reason why they talked about "Probabilities" instead. If the punter believes a horse has a 75% (fair 1/3) chance of winning then 4/6 is (for him) big value. If he thinks a horse has a 20% (fair 4/1) chance then 6/1 is big value. If believing it a 6% (fair 16/1) then 25/1 is big value... etc etc
This is all very outdated lads tbh if you think the big syndicates do not factor all of this in already you are deluded
Don't let the cat out of the bag john ffs
Taylors records on his tipster services are fixed. Try and find any bookie that had the odds he quotes..these fuckers work for the bookies and get a percentage of losing punters losses..
It just goes to show how worthless Hugh Taylor’s tips are to the general public . It’s because price is EVERYTHING and you will NEVER be able to get his advised prices !!
At advised prices he shows a healthy profit year on year out but at SP you will show a serious loss ❤
The only thing his column is good for is the info as to how he arrived at the selection ❤
Be lucky .
Ahhh, Hugh the fraud. nice