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Fooled by randomness in horse racing?
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 16 ส.ค. 2024
- In a special edition of Form Factor Hugh and James Willoughby give you some expert advice for your punting. Here our expert pair discuss randomness in racing.
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This is some amazing advice, especially for beginners. Don't let yourself get fooled by the gambler's fallacy. Look at things in context of the long term. Never let yourself get discouraged by losing streaks. This is why it's important to keep track of your wins and losses over the betting season.
really interesting BeginnersGuideToHorseBettingmy 2nd book is out on amazon it is called (The Game of Money) by Paul Campbell my sports trading career and only $1not only does it help the gamblers and traders, it is a true story I go deep in to the days I could lose £30,000 in a day chasing the dragon I talk about what it takes to take a hit Book over viewSports trading
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As the old saying goes - we know the price of everything and the value of nothing. Many of us didn’t have a good education so it is not surprising that so many of us fall into bad habits.
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ATR has the best discussions on Horse Racing.
Hugh I tip my hat to you my man , brilliant you really burn the midnight oil and your results are the proof,
Read the great book BLINK where the author promotes the significant idea that MANY decisions are based with greater success with LESS INFORMATION
Hence beginners luck... Started on horses 2016, picked loads of winners at prices first few months... Think I went 1 month then before Xmas without a winning day, changed to dogs, landed a big acca before new year day.... By Paddy's day I'd another big lose run, switched back to Horse
Probably because it's difficult not to get confused by conflicting pointers when looking at a lot of information before making your decision. It's a mental thing - you don;t know which way to turn after trying to consider everything
Hugh I tip my hat to you , you really burn the midnight oil my man and dig deep , pity the racing post wouldn't get rid of most of the so called experts they have , people might start buying it again , add a few like yourself ,garry o brien , with gerald delemere , Alan sweetman , tom Segal, Steve boo , Steve palmer , might have missed one but not two in the racing post absolutely drivel for advice .
Stop betting based on stats. Learn how to use the form and rely on yourself. But it is A LOT of work.
To give every player the very best chance of making consistent daily profits, through the skilful interpretation of horse race betting markets’
With a. 10 percent strike rate the bottom side is number of runners.if avg 14 or more then you can get a number 10to 1. Or more betting opportunities over course of meets.study trust your reasons and learn and im prove.i bet a first timer at 25 -30 to 1 breaking from the out side at 6.he broke well but fell back racing wide.two weeks latter he in entered again and draws the rail.had good works blow out 35and change.off at 40 tob1.i doubled down on him and he won broke out the gate went to lead was hooked with other horse and went gate to wire.a k.y.bred running a MSWT IN NOR CAL FAIR AS TWO YEAR OLD.ONLY RACE HE EVER WON IN ABOUT 6 OTHER RACES AT 2 AND THREE
Hugh Taylor hasn't had a winner in ages he must be due! Definitely a fallacy 😂😂😂
True, but remember that I have never seen a poor bookie, and they set the odds. So in a 2 horse race (both equal horses), the bookies offer $1.80 for each horse. Given both horses have an equal chance of winning, the odds should be $2 for each horse. Bookies never lose in the long run. But punters lose even when they 'win' because the bookie has got his cut regardless which horse wins.
When I get seconditis I use my head- bet my horses place and show- then get pissed off when they WIN!!!!
pay attention to the winners from a specific post position at the track you are handicapping instead of a trainers strike numbers. those strike numbers are probably taken from a different track which has no bearing on a given days race
The key is not to bet on jump racing it simply is to random the flat is far easier to find value
funny I think its the opposite....flat racing is more random...its all probably a fallacy either way though
@TheHotcrumbs most of the skullduggery in racing is on the flat, non-triers etc, it's easier to spot jumps non-triers obviously because of the longer distances, more time to spot offenders...
@TheHotcrumbs The toughest game is life itself.....
I have to say I cannot agree. Ive tried all of them, I kept records between 2016-2019 when I first started... All my winners were jumps, in particular chase races. I looked for chase races with short priced favs who had good form over hurdles who hadn't run chases yet, there was loads... Soni would find a horse in that race with decent chase record.
Flat is too random. Stuck in the stalls, stuck on the rails, jockey falls off, run too wide.
The best sport I have though to bet on.... Irish greyhounds. Strike rate is very good, even ran my own tipping page for free at one point because I was picking 3-4 out of 5-7 every night. Barking out the traps what it was called. Great fun, had a bachelor party go to youghal track solely to follow my tips 5/6 won.
But for horses my strike rate is much lower but as most horses that I pick are over 6/1 generally it makes up for it.
Try that strategy yourself, look just in chase races for short priced horse with little form over fences but good hurdle... And try and beat it... Had a double the other day 15/2 and 6/1.... Only play small stakes though, €3 max
I've had 'seconditis' since 2012 its ridiculous the amount of 2nds I get...its like a joke with all my friends that my horses always come 2nd its been going on for years...basically my horses are always beaten by A: The favourite or B: a dark horse outsider. This has made me realize I am never going to win in the long term because of this factor.
Then back the horse to finish 2nd.
In all my years as a punter n follower of racing its my opinion (probably worthless) that racing is inherently crooked. The only people in the know are the owners, trainers, jockeys and of course the only overall winners are the bookies. Now i know this bht i still continue to have small bets but only on long priced winners. Its simply a matter of luck if the owners, trainers n jockeys are also on it on the right day.
the first lesson is trust your gut and first instinct and dont change it , i wouldnt listen to anyone and especiallly these guys as they get paid to talk shite
see this vid to see, how it is dun (The Highway To Wealth)
Paul Campbell the
thanks Darrell Montgomery really interesting my 2nd book is out on amazon it is called (The Game of Money) by Paul Campbell a much more updated book on my sports trading career and only $1
For horse racing tips go to Tipstrr.com/tipster/top-rated-value/
So much shit you can’t use stats they are utter bollocks so shut the fuck up