Wall Street’s Tom Narayan Says THIS is Bigger Than Auto
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 3 มี.ค. 2024
- Larry Goldberg is a serial entrepreneur (co-founder of Sapiens Decision), angel investor, and co-author of the book “The Decision Model”.
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Herbert
I was employee 0068 in 1970 for Environment Canada and we were talking about the Energy Business (Renewables) at that point so for 50+ years. It's value and ability to reduce our OIL consumption. We are over the moon with TESLA's making big money out of their Energy Business. Thanks for the info Larry.
My aunt has a friend that works for Tesla that has been sent to Mexico for something energy related. He isn’t allowed to tell her what for exactly. Very interesting 🤔
It’s the lithium mine with CATL partnership
I’ve been on all the Tesla channels for 3 years saying this . Sent Gary Black a DM last January on this . I’m so glad to see everyone on board . Tesla is an energy company that makes cars . Razors and blades
And how has the experience being over the years. Did you get to purchase a Tesla car of your own?
@@AlexSchaffer_ev nope never wanted one but I’ve owned the stock since 17 so it’s been great .
Wall St. didn't get the memo on Tesla not being a car company. 85% of current revenue comes from,,, uh,,, cars. Elon wants to sell 20 million of the "instruments/tools" (cars) by 2030. That's quite an objective for a company that purports NOT to be a car company. I get the diversity toward energy etc but to ignore the financials and data related to cars is not reality.
@@mattdecandia9607 You're a real investor, you can buy the New Tesla Shares, it's paying well too I bought over 10% worth of shares already
@@mattdecandia9607 You're a real investor, you can buy the New Tesla Shares, it's paying well too I bought over 10% worth of shares already
Thank you Larry. I trust your evaluations and opinions than others.
Just today, the Milwaukee Journal had a front page article stating that our major energy company, We Energies, needs $335,000,000 for new electric distribution infrastructure to serve Microsoft's data center development beginning nearby. And that data centers consume up to 50 times more energy than similar sized offices.
Larry is so good. Really excellent at explaining this stuff. Thank you, guys!
Tesla all time high was $391 a share! Right now it is $175 a share!😮
Outstanding discussion. Thank you both.
Thanks!
Larry is spot on 👏🏽👏🏽👏🏽🙏🏼
Look forward to these discussions every week
Scaling factories requires scaling raw battery materials in conjunction with scaling density increases in battery chemistry to most effectively generate the “best” margins at the back end. Sound right?
Tesla is building a lithium refinery just outside Corpus Christi. The site is on a rail line that connects to the Port of Corpus Christi. I posit that the joint venture battery plant with CATL will be in San Antonio on rail lines to Corpus Christi, Austin and Mexico via Laredo.
Regardless of what happens today or tomorrow, Tesla keeps building a major infrastructure network which will be an enormous powerhouse. Patience will pay. Stay patient and focus on the end goal.
Onya Herbert and Larry!
Great content, thank you! Can you do a show to unpack the income model and deferred income model for the mega pack? I'm thinking that it will produce residual revenue but I don't fully understand how it is structured.
Larry is a great resource. Energy storage is an iceberg of future revenue. There are major hurdles to deploy energy storage - and what are Tesla good at overcoming ? ( Answer - major hurdles...) Tesla seem more adept than most at fixing these barriers, regulatory, statutory or fiscal, and they are willing to talk to rule-makers to improve the trajectory and timescale of projects...
My math tells me one TWh is only .4% of the 240 TWh goal. Less than half of one percent. If my math is correct the potential for $TSLA Smart Energy Storage is even greater.
Are you an investor?
Except there will never be enough batteries on earth 🌎 to turn the planet's surface in a battery.
We would need tens of trillions of batteries
@@yourlogicalnightmare1014 you gonna see
Despite other useless comments... You are right. Additionally, I think the 240 TWh is the installed capacity needed to sustain the economy. The 1 TWh is the annual output.
@@Laskdanni.146 Big Fan of THE MISSION...... And investor as well.
A California state judge tentatively ruled that nearly 6,000 Black factory workers can sue Tesla, opens new tab as a group for the electric vehicle maker's alleged failure to address rampant race discrimination and harassment at its Fremont plant.
As I go over the numbers I am wondering: The 240 TWh refer to the total installed capacity and not the new installations per year, right? Then Tesla does not target only 4 % with there 1 TWh annual capacity. If the 240 TWh need to be replaced every 20 years, new installation per year is about 12 TWh. So marketshare would be more like 8 %. Or what did I miss?
Why they are not using their cash and constructing for mega factories worldwide at the same time, why wait when there is demand?!
Perhaps a bottleneck exists such as battery supply
I have not heard anyone say this, but I wonder if Tesla will float different divisions separately on the Stock Exchange - perhaps even sell the operation of its chargers to another company.
We have auto manufacture, battery cell manufacture, cell packaging for auto, Megapack and home systems, Optimus manufacture, Charging Station manufacture, AI for FSD, Optimus, Grok and whatever else, solar cell products, charger installation and operation, plus R&D and design for all manufacturing.
I just think that as the streams ramp up and continue to spread over the world in different locations, one company will be too unwieldy, and the market may see more value in more focused segments of this sprawling beast.
Larry G 👍
Look for your pure play BESS companies like EOS Energy and Fluence. The whole space is has so much room to grow.
Availability of batteries is the limitation for scaling up storage. We also need 4680 scaling or US LFP battery production to maximize margins.
Yep. Trying to create a world 🌎 based on batteries is giga-lolz.
Tessy's manufacturing has slowed to a crawl because they can't find enough batteries
FSD and Robo Taxi still central to the investment case and why TSLA retains such a high multiple. The reality is that FSD is years away still. Yes, the energy business has value but not at the multiples the stock trades at. Earnings growth even with the energy business has not exploded as is neccesary to sustain this valuation. This is a car company trading like a hot tech stock.
I just gonna keep buying. I’m almost to 200 shares
Buy it while it's DIRT CHEAP!
@@eugeniustheodidactus8890 $241 average cost . I have bought all over the spectrum. In my mind dirt cheap every time . We see in 20 years
@@alexjeffs7092
20yrs?
How old are you😅?
107 here
Splendid, can you help me out
I want to be an investor, can I HMU privately???
Today: 0.0147TwH = $6bn rev = $1.1bn profit. In 2030, @ 1.0 TwH = $408.16 bn rev = $74.83 bn profit.
Gross profit or Net profit???
What are these mega energy factories in this discussion? Tesla are using our source batteries now and their solar energy business is struggling. So I am kind of confused.
Will Tesla get into manufacturing Transformers for the energy grid since Elon predicted this would be a bottleneck after silicon as more amd more compute for data centres comes online?
Larry kept saying that deferred revenue is three times last year's profits for energy, but you cannot compare deferred revenue to profits. Deferred revenue will not flow directly to the bottom line when it is recognized. There are costs associated with the deferred revenue, which will be recognized concurrently as the revenue is recognized.
The costs involved producing the MegaPacks that produced that deferred revenue have already been accounted for.
That deferred revenue is pure profit.
I had moved out of Tesla and into ETFs with Tesla. Mainly $PP. This was such a cogent analysis, I moved back into TSLA.
Have you ever heard shares with any car company before over the period of your experience?
@@AlexSchaffer_ev I assume heard meant held. Never an ice company. EVs: RIVN, GOEV, ARVL, AYRO, SOLO and BYDDY. Have some LEV now. I just bought etf BATT for the Chinese car companies.
@@robitmcclain6107 That's astonishing, I never knew about the Chinese ETF BATT
I'm interested, how can I own one?
Do you have a social media handle?
TH-cam won't allow you to drop any external links here, my IG handle is on my description
You can invest in the New Tesla Innovations shares
The dip is a good window to be a shareholder
@@robitmcclain6107 That's astonishing, I never knew about the Chinese ETF BATT
I'm interested, how can I own one?
Do you have a social media handle?
TH-cam won't allow you to drop any external links here, my IG handle is on my description
I agree, 100% that the energy business will be bigger than the car business but it’s possible that the robot business will be bigger than that.
Should have talked of the number of power plants Tesla has already installed and how many are on the books. I've heard of uit a few.
That information isn’t public.
Is it irony that TSLA drops another 8+% on the same day and hour?
Do you also invest in tesla shares?
One of my great frustrations when in the manufacturing business would be people who showed up with nothing but air quotes to express their opinion.
Make a graph and post it Larry
Thank you, Herbert and LARRY! This was a great presentation; learned a great deal. Exciting future! Forward to a sustainable future!
one more "believer in future"
@@rimantasauzinis8467 I have a huge amount invested in $TSLA. I don't base my investment on daily stock movements. Neither does Larry.
have you been following Tesla recent innovations? Because you said exciting future they must be so much you have to say.
@@rimantasauzinis8467sure a true believer but there’s more than being a believer have you had shares with any car company before?
1TWh of storage equals about 260 megapacks.
That is 1GWh. 1 TWh is 260,000 mega packs.
@@jasons1838 You are correct. Thank you.
lol 😂when is the stock going to move ?? NVDA looking pretty good right now 🤣
Hardware revenue
Software revenue
Maintenance revenue
Any energy profit sharing
I request these be discussed
TESLA is definitely "Running On All Cylinders" !! 😀
Running out of batteries on all cylinders.
Semi production 🐌
Model S production 🐌
Model X production 🐌
Refreshed Model 3 production 🐌
CyburrTruk production 🐌
Megapacks 🐌
Cell phones??
@@yourlogicalnightmare1014
To short, or not to short, that is the question.
For sure the stock is dropping to 150 with all the capex and low sales. 😂
$600/kWh? In B.C. electricity prices from home are 10cent/kWh. I think that’s off by several orders of magnitude.
he said $600/ MEGA WATT hour - Not kilo watt
@@SHAMWOW388its kilo
The $600/kWh is the price Tesla is getting for MegaPack STORAGE and has nothing to do with the price of electricity.
@@fredbloggs5902 I see. So that's retail sales price for an individual megapack unit, then there would be a running SaaS component collected for balancing load?
@@thewayoftea The $600 is what you get when you divide the total MegaPack system price by its storage capacity. The batteries alone are currently around $120/kWh individually.
I have no idea what the ongoing support/maintenance prices are.
Why don’t they build data centres underground? Much cooler, less aircon
Please explain how being underground is cooler.
Earth is a heat insulator.
HVAC units are not buried underground.
🔋🔋🔋
Elon said that a long time ago.
It is $188 right now. You have been talking about this for two years now
$300 ?!!!! not with the way Elon is behaving lately and the multi $B company left without a PR team to deal with Elon's mess in the media !
Grow up
Remember Tesla split more than once. The company is going to be massive.
How do stock-splits relate to company size?
@@fredbloggs5902 typo
"You can imagine Elon going: We're going to build the largest data warehouse out there, its going to require the most amount of battery packs to power it and we're going to be the only player who can afford this" - This line is sadly not true, I wish it was. But China has a trick up its sleeve, which is the ability to copy design illegally and then be able to combine the hard working yet cheap labor they have, along with sheer numbers of people in China, that would surpass Tesla in battery mega pack production scale, to the point where even though Tesla will be one step ahead in technology, the massive scale China will have will mean that they can compete and possibly outcompete Tesla. It could reach a point where Tesla is seen by China as the most important source of new design ideas for China manufacture. The only way to solve this is a world government which can enforce patent protection laws, but I doubt a world government will ever happen.
The battery storage will only be successful if Tesla can have access to a very large equanimity of batteries, and this we aren't sure Tesla has the battery supply in place
Powered by Neveready 😂
Elon really needs to focus back on tesla. It feels like he has abandoned tesla and is letting tesla run on autopilot.
When Tesla buys property in other countries they usually buy quite a bit of land, enough for a Giga-Factory as well as a Meg-Pack Factory & other factories such as Battery Factory. I don't see why India couldn't have both, they certainly need another Giga-Factory in Asia given the political overtures between the US & China coming. If they decide on India I could see them building both a Giga-Factory & Mega-Pack Factory over time as well as a Battery factory. My guess to why they haven't announced another factory could be because they are battery & supply chain restrains, cash restrains meaning not spending too much when the macro economy is unstable & finding the right partner.
Berlin is constantly at risk from environmentalits, Mexico seems to be stuck in beaurocratic red tape & regulations & we have seen what Deleware has done to Tesla/Elon which affects their financials, cash flow & future quite frankly. They have to be incredibly conservative, patient & suspicious of every government they deal with, it's easy for us to want more factories, but the after sale beaurocracy for Tesla in these countries is always going to be concerning. For all the political Anti-China talk the Shanghaifactory has been their best most productive factory they have.
Berlin is not different from Mexico
It will be 2026 when the next gen car starts to ramp. All other models are pretty much capped out.
That only means there’s still time to buy stock at a reasonable price
YE 2024
only if data centers for ai are powered by green energy.
This is a great call out. I'm consinder this myself and I think the potential can be massive. As AI Data centers scale to accomodate the mass amount of entities building their own AI infrastructure, energy consumption is going to scale will it. For entities with sustainability goals as part of their entity strategy, it would only make sense to source AI center's energy needs using renewable energy, which will require the best in class energy storage solution to be as cost efficient as possible - I believe Tesla will be a top supplier of said solutions. *shakes hands*
his numbers dont add up.. 5.4 b rev 1.1profit is not a 15% margin
Batteries plus wind/solar compete with gas. As megapacks finally face competition, years from now, gas will be obviated.
So why is the stock doing so poorly
Wall Street analysts are blind and „Elon bad”
Shares of Tesla (TSLA) continue to drop as the EV maker struggles with overall performance, issues with leadership culture, and rising profitability concerns from Wall Street.
Tesla toasted. Pipe dream
Yet here you are 🙄
Tesla should not be selling MegPacks they should deliver the to the Utilities for free and take the arbitrage profits, according to many accounts from Australia the ROI on these MegaPacks is about 2 years. After 2 years the profits from the revenue from the batteries would be near 100% every year.
So what your saying is READ Teslas master plans I II and III because they tell us, every time, where they are going and how they’re going to get there? Lol
I'll believe it when I see it......might be another Tesla Mirage on the Horizon....like FSD
MegaPacks are real.
You need to grow up.
@@fredbloggs5902 KMA
Tesla stock just going in one direction now! Jimmy Cramer hates Tesla and Elon too!😮
TSLA -7,5%/187,5$ 300$ 😅
Do you also invest in tesla shares?
I think the wheels beginning to fall off slowly until Tesla can prove it is not a car company. Progress is slow and new investors are losing patience even with all the pumps. It may not recover until May. Interest rate is the key.
today a big drop
Stock is tanking on weak China sales
Chinese New Year
It’s tanking on the $6 billion lawyers fees.
Megapak Is a Trojan horse. The real revenue will come from grid services. Autobidder for one. Grid stabilisation and frequency control. Energy services revenue will be much larger than megapack revenue over time. Autobidder revenue is cumulative based on total Megapacks installed. The real question is how much revenue does Autobidder make over the life span of a Megapack? Making a big battery is all well and fine but Tesla have worked out how to get paid a least twice a day every day. Now that IMO is where the real money is.
Autobidder isn't even a nickels & dimes business... It's a fractions of a cent business. Won't do anything for the bottom line
I'm about to loosing my faith in Tesla.
Tesla stock down again… and again..
Tesla stock down 7 % on the basis of virtually no news, what a fun ride being a Tesla investor is.
Having to potentially pay lawyers $6 billion is NOT ‘no news’.
And the stock drops 5%😅😅
Make it -6%
Waiting for Cramer to say "dont buy the stock"
Tessy will go nowhere in 2024. I've been right since the summer of 2023 via prior posts.
Tessy goes WAY below $100 if FSD fails to reach level 4 this year
dreamersssssssssssssssssssssssssss tesla blunder
down 6% as you speak 🤣
good, buy more!
I really dont know how these tesla experts/bulls/pseudoprophets get the energy to speak about tesla. At this moment watching the stock being the situation is so pathetic...i am so fed up...
*Stop watching the stock price.* Who the fk cares about the stock price in 2024? Keep your eye on 2030 and beyond!
@eugeniustheodidactus8890 bro this is a continuous 🐎 💩 show for 3 years straight. We bet on the wrong horse.
Lmao
@diogenez471 3 years, so you bought in at the peak, proably sold during the crash and then most likely bought in again when it was knocking on 3 hondo. Relax and dollar cost average.
@@mrspeigle1 are you ok ?
Elon Musk announces the pending release of the Roadster. Completely stupid! It does NOT advance any of the long term goals of Tesla or the accelerate the transition to sustainable energy etc. Misplaced valuable resources selling a 250,000 dollar car as part of an ego exercise. This is why Tesla needs to adopt a "Co CEO" management structure. Elon focusing his vision and innovation. A counterpart "Co CEO" focusing Tesla's overarching business goals and application of resources aimed at the objectives of the organization, not solely the vision of Elon Musk. Tesla needs to move beyond the organization of being Elons toy box. Elon is awesome,,,, no doubt, but given the board of directors is not doing its job of governance a Co CEO is needed to maintain business focus and shareholders expectations.
Wrong. What it really means is the Next-gen car is now fully finished in terms of production ready so the guys on that have been moved to Roadster.
Consequently we’ll be seeing Next-gens being produced as early as Q3-24.
@@fredbloggs5902One of Teslas BHAGs (big hairy audacious goals) is to be producing 20 million cars annually by 2030. The Roadster does not further that objective. In fact it pulls resources away from that objective. Tesla needs to have a portfolio of vehicles at affordable prices that results in substantially more Teslas on the roads. This expands the installed base for more future FSD sales as well. A 250,000+ dollar limited sports car does not contribute toward either of those goals. It's simply an ego product of Elon Musk. It's a cool thing,,, but a stupid thing. Especially for shareholders and those buying into the original intention of advancing the transition to sustainable energy (Teslas very purpose for existing). Elon Musk calls this a Tesla/SpaceEx collab. If any revenues or profits are shifted to SpaceEx it means moving revenue from Tesla a public company to a private company which Elon Musk has greater holdings. Potential conflict of interest. Elon Musk untethered. Hmmmm
@@sunrisejak2709 The Next-gen car gets them to 20m/year.
You’re clueless.
@@fredbloggs5902 Yes, I agree about the next gen! That's not what we're talking about. Frankly next gen should have come to market many years ago. This is about the Roadster not the next gen. I own a Tesla model 3 dual motor. I also own some Tesla shares. Far from clueless. BYD for example has released 6 new models, MG 6 models, while Tesla has relied solely on 3/Y. 85% of Tesla revenue is 3/Y. In fact Y is 67% of those sales meaning Tesla is inordinately dependent upon one model which is high risk. This is why Wall St is punishing the stock. You are indeed clueless.
@@sunrisejak2709 blocked
Sick of these predictions. Meanwhile last i saw its at 192. Wish i sold at 260. My average is 140 Uggg. All we can do is wait.
YOU PEOPLE. lol
BYD is going to take the biggest part of the EV market in the future... So if tesla is going to be valued higher it can not be because of the amount of cars they can make. FSD is far from where it was supposed to be. So The bot is the only thing now... But even that is getting some heavy comeptition.
You bulls need to be realistic. Do not be a dreamer any more.
So tell what’s good? What do you recommend?
I respect all the Tesla bulls team, but most of you are living in clouds...Tesla as stock - do not have respect from market in various reasons and would be nice you pick up the veil about it. thank you
Long game != short game. Tesla is laying the pipe to be unassailable in the future. Semi is coming. 4680s and Cybertruck is scaling. Megapacks are sold out. Cars are best on the planet. Autonomous driving is close. Optimus is coming. Big war chest. No debt. Vertical integration. Most agile big company on the planet. I don't care what the stock market is doing today. As an all-in TSLA investor, I'm going profit mightily 5 years from today.
@@carlkelley4566 appreciate your reaction and comments. I'm in Tesla allin from 2021 and know all the things you are talking about. Sad, but my finance result is very bad on "believing" on Tesla future, esp. knowing that Elon do not care about investers and stock price and reputation....he is very very big EGO
@@carlkelley4566 I guess you go broke if you are wrong seeing as you are not diversified. Consider SEMI is a flop due to range/load constraints and the cost of MEGA charger installation, 4680 battery tech is not a game changer like folks thought and Tesla is even using blade batteries in some cars, and Cybertruck is never going to ramp up like a the 3 or Y. Optimus is 1 of dozens of bots in development and may not succeed. 29 billion war chest (meanwhile Elon wants his 55 billion back) is not alot... but good luck I hope you are right.
@@paulfun8720 nice to hear a sober , rational realistic voice. all the best to you
How can I buy and invest in Tesla?
BS , Tesla to 75
For everyone crying on here. Please cut your losses and sell your Tesla stock.
Yes!
…so I can buy them
@@fredbloggs5902 exactly.
Your news Is BS
How?
You know HOW keep LOSING
@@tp7592 cluelessness confirmed
Blocked
This stock is dead people! Move on!
If it’s dead why don’t YOU move on. 🤔?
stop the bs take on tsla as long as em is with the company it will never get proper valuation csuse everyone despises em they will work behind the scenes to mske sure company stsys low value
tsla struggling just as much and this guy only streams bullish stories.
How is Tesla ‘struggling’ ?
YOU PEOPLE HAVE BEEN SAYING THIS FOR AT LEAST 1 YEAR!
Why is that important?
WHY ARE YOU YELLING?!
@@nicottscole:D
@@ReasonableExpectations He is literally repeating what a key analyst (among others) has indicated… he’s not making it up. WTF…. They also SAY it’s not investment advice, it’s speculation.
Tesla to the moon 🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉 ooopppsss -7.7% today 😂😂😂