Tony Seba's Bold Prediction: $11K Cars by 2025, $5K by 2030
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 28 ก.พ. 2024
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Herbert, can you land a interview with Tony?! Would be EPIC
Would be very nice indeed Herbert! Get Toni on!
Yes he’s already agreed! Just need to wait till they get me in their schedule.
@@BrighterwithHerbert sick! I don't think he's really been interviewed by a tesla person! REALLY look forward to this!!
@@BrighterwithHerbertAwesome! I’ve been voraciously consuming Tony Sebas content for many years now, he is amazing.
BEAUTIFUL❤❤❤🎉🎉🎉@@BrighterwithHerbert
Tony Seba is the one I listen to for disruption relative to energy/transportation.He has been spot on in his predictions.
Stick a fork in the legacy auto companies.... they're done!
When you reduce battery cost and/or weight or increase battery capacity it is as if you made a new engine technology, like adding a supercharger or turbocharger or electronic igniton etc. It is different in that it happens more frequently and doesn't require that the carmaker revamp their facilities or supply chains. Doesn't require changes to engine bays or accessories.
I'm driving a 2015 Nissan Leaf 🍃 $4000 only 80 Mile range--- definitely see basic EV available in 5 Years in USA
Outstanding discussion. I'm so looking forward to the next six years to see what Tesla ushers in by 2030. Thank you both.
R. I. P. All legacy ICE automakers 😂
Years and years of no competition made all the car companies basically collude with each other to avoid inovation and lower prices.
Yeah. Bob kLutz discussed the emerging Model Y at the Ann Arbor Private Jet Club. None of those lazy schlubs liked the looks.
the opportunity is incredible to buy this stock at such a low price. It is ridiculous that the market doesn’t see what is being built here.
Have you run the numbers? Even in the best case scenario TSLA is still grossly overvalued.
In March 2024, BYD sold 34,830 Seagull cars. Looks like they have scale up fairly quickly. The car was launched of April 26, 2023
I don’t understand your estimate. You can’t buy a BYD in the US. Therefore cheapest EV in the US is $28k (the Chevy bolt). 11k by 2025 here makes no sense. 20k by 2025 would be great. What’s the actual US estimate?
If the hardware suite is $2,000 per vehicle today, the cost should drop significantly as volume increases and automakers buy in to the operating system. Soon it will be a no-brainer to drop in house efforts to recreate this operating system. Tesla could charge a few $k for licensing (at 80-90% margin) and still not impact affordability for everyone.
I am confused. Reports about EV batteries in the recent past said the supply of lithium and cadmium was limited to the point that scaling up would make prices go way up. Now, were told battery prices are dropping by 50% ??
Put a couple of question marks on BYD's price: (1) BYD is also a battery maker. (2) Complex relationship with government ( (subsidy and free loan). (3) Special government support (subsidy and free loan) for export purpose.
Second the motion for an interview with Tony. What I'd REALLY like to hear from him is if he's revised his 90%+ of all miles driven will be transportation as a service by 2030 prediction as a result of FSD delays.
And I see Tesla being hush hush as long as they can on an attempt to push the next gen out until FSD can be installed and they can go straight to robotaxi.
Tesla is a in-house manufactorer, thats a real manufacturer!
Very insightful, Hans.
If a robo taxi costs $5,000 and it works for you 10 hours a day making $25/hr, you'll have paid off the car in 20 days ($250/day x 20 days = $5,000) 😮👍
Optimus will make Tony Seba's predictions pale!
Even if AGI is harder than they think, it will be good enough to change the economic growth curve.
That's a new exponential growth curve, not even Tony Seba could have predicted. But he will give us a new one soon, I expect.
BYD compact will take developing countries by storm. Also Europe. Wow, I got goose bumps.
Canada - For Frunk Sake. We don't apply a punitive tariff.
What a mind blowing interview!!
Thanks for posting. I visited the BYD showroom in Chiang Mai Thailand two months ago and the seagull was selling for $25000 us. Where is the $11000 seagull is not going to happen in N America. Maybe a $11,000 in china but it will not happen in N America.
Hi Herbert. Another thing that short video didn’t mention was the NY building where the Tesla is going to build to place the super computer. I might not have stated that correct but I’m sure you know what I’m talking about 😊 oh yeah, what about The Tesla Bot in the factory as another cost reduction 😮
many times Herbert i click on your interview thinking the guest named in the video is going to be in the video then i see this guy Hans Nelson - cmon
You don’t like listening to Hans?
To your point batteries are new tech so lots of scope for ongoing price decrease.
By 2030 we will have solid state batteries, so yes the price of batteries will continue to decrease for another several years.
Seems like Tesla is on the right track. It will be interesting to see where the company is five years from now?
In 5 years $TSLA is on a trajectory to be the largest, most transformative & profitable company globally. Bar None.
6T$-compagny....
@@rudyromohave you looked at the stock price in the last 30 months … ? And what does it mean that in five years they will be on a trajectory of some sorts ? Should t they be now on such trajectory?
if BYD soon has an electric vehicle for $11,000, that will put a huge amount of pressure on Tesla. To my knowledge Tesla has nothing similar even remotely in the works, but I could be wrong.
@wengelder9256 I ignore the daily, even week to week, month to month fluctuations. I study, research and look closely at THE BUSINESS FUNDAMENTALS. I also listen to experts like Ron Baron. No doubt $TSLA will have multiple ChatGPT & NVDA moments in the next 1-3 years.
There is already delayed buying with the expectation of lower prices. Prices could be a lot lower if the battery price reduces 50%. Why wouldn’t folk wait and keep their aging ICE car another year or two?
With the US leadership judged as non compos mentis, I cannot see American EVs competing with Chinese EVs, the latter attracting only half as much tax
Beijing outlawed electric micro-vehicles (a/k/a elderly scooters," 老头乐 ) as of 12/31/2023. (I don't know whether other Chinese cities did so) The Dolphin comes along when people who drove them are looking for a replacement.
Giga Mexico was mentioned for Tesla's Next Gen $25k cars, but I didn't hear anything about Giga Texas, where Tesla plans to build the first Next Gen cars with their new "unboxed" assembly process. Once the process is proven, then Tesla plans to replicate in Mexico, Berlin, and probably Shanghai.
BYD's CEO recently said they are not planning to enter the US market, called it too complex.
Please explain how a 5k car can even pass safety requirements. Respect for Seba, but this looks over the top.
Moore's Law seems to be applicable to batteries as well as to computer chips. ie doubling the energy content per kilogram and halving the cost.....every 2 years.
Check out Wright's Law. It says cost to manufacture units declines as a factor of cumulative production.
Tony Seeba shows that the adoption of technological improvements follows roughly an S curve. This is not actually an exponential curve. The initial part of this curve looks somewhat exponential, but after 50% adoption the annual increases begin to slow down.
If a car can't be sold in the US because it doesn't conform to safety standards, it certainly can't be sold in Europe, which has more stringent standards for pedestrian safety than the US. China is a different story.
Byd already sells other models in Europe so they are considering adding the seagull to their European portfolio. The seagull will compete against the Dacia Spring, which with incentives, can be purchased for 12,500 euros.
The one fly in the ointment for mass adoption of cheap self driving cars is the road infrastructure. It isn't fit for purpose.
They need to improve the battery and range under load of the Cyber truck - Plus the charging stations for Cyber truck! Cannot charge with trailer on the back - the parking arrangement only suits single car . Not to mention they need the model 2 out yesterday! otherwise share price will drop further especially if Trump wins!
There would be NO REASON for them to sell them at $11K in 2025.
They would be overwhelmed with orders. They could price them at $18-20K and sell as many as they could build.
In the USA the price must include $10k to cover marketing, defense against lawsuits, and bribes to Supreme court justices. But a $20K car is still a big improvement.
You can buy a justice for a lot less.
I recognise Tesla's strategy of eliminating the competition by accepting lower margins. The legacy manufacturers have mostly missed the boat, and will never catch up.
Bonus shot: Petrol-heads hate seeing street EVs burn off their muscle cars.
Right now there is not enough lithium for EV’s to replace ICE cars. I have seen the $11,000 Chinese car, it’s a death trap. A $5,000 EV that will be licensed as a car will never happen.
Elon has stated that the Model 2 volume will be double the combined volume of all their current models. It will be produced in all their current and future giga-factories. Texas (first, to prototype the machine that builds the machine), Monterrey, Shanghai, Berlin, and future locations. Somewhere on the Mediterranean makes sense for Africa and the Middle East demand.
Optimus production will probably parallel the NGV production in both locations and volume.
Tony is talking about next gen car prices with 7500 usd off the prices of 25k 2025 27-7.5 is 17.5k
If next gen is 20k-7.5 = 12.5k
I don’t think Tony took into account possible credits as they can come and go and modify every few years.
tony seba is the one who convinced me tesla is the company to invest.
One big problem with the electric cars is the cost of insurance it's 80% more and that's for a 2023 Modern 3 basic rear wheel drive
Have you talked to State Farm. They'll beat Tesla Insurance rates - 'cause Teslas are 9 times LESS likely to get into an accident.
I have a 2022 model Y performance with State Farm and my insurance is $91 a month
@@timsailors Thanks I will definitely check
they aren’t 80% more. My M3 was about $160 a month. My 16’ Land Cruiser is $220. Motorcycle is $200 electric cake bike is $110
@@ssing7113 My 2022 Nissan Titan is $1150 a year the Tesla is $ 1825 a year the Titans book is more than the Tesla Safeco insurance
Honda Fit is a GREAT car 6:31
No longer sold in Canada. I think the 'Jazz' was canned in Europe too,
I studied a lot of physical relationships and God thinks in dB, I.e. exponential/log.
I and most people I know will strongly resist buying Chinese cars. I support Tesla but I hope they can move more battery production to the USA
Just like you probably strongly resisted buying Japanese or Korean cars? Price and quality are what drive people in the long term. People talk ideology, but it the wallet that counts.
A lot of people are driving Chinese-made cars and don’t even know it. Honda Fit, for example. . .
@@AKJammer1Indeed. We talk ideology, but vote with our wallets
Strongly resist? Just don’t buy one, is that strong resistance? 😂
Good move. Ready to pay $30,000-60,000 more if there is any.
Tesla Gen 2 drive train $1000
Yes some tech grows on exponential basis. But all not. Look at self driving. Musk said several yrs ago that those buying current ice cars as tesla to have self driving cars now with this having just only software update in next yr and then like level 5 and can use our cars as taxis with no drivers. Many others in the field too saying same with exponential growth in tech. Here today and still majority ev with just level 2 - just couple maybe could say level 3. Again some maybe like chips growth exponentially but much just linear growth.
The overall cost of owning and operating EVs is heading down while for ICE vehicles those same costs are diametrically opposed and accelerating. Such is the modus operandi of disruptive technologies. So the choice for ICE vehicle manufacturers is clear; adapt or die.
If the US Government stops subsidizing refineries, the petroleum industry dies the next day.
Mexico Tesla opens, then California Tesla closes?
2003 video quality - great content though
The EV resale values are going to be giga-lolz. My $85k Model X coming in March will resell for $2,500 in 2030 😂
Unless it holds its value like some classic Porsches do. 👍
Welcome to early adoption.
@gasser5001
It's not about early... Tessy has been making cars for 10 years. It's about the cost of manufacturing going to zero.
No one is safe from falling prices.
That has been the way for Mercedes S-Class forever. A 10 year-old S-Class typically sells for 1/10th new price. New buyers have never cared. They're surgeons!
At least you can have some peace of mind by knowing you helped reduce some portion of exhaust and further EV adoption.
Adoption of EVs would get a big boost if the $/kwh would go down. 33.7 kwh = same energy as 1 gallon of gasoline. If you are paying $0.30/kwh, then you are basically paying $10/gallon gasoline equivalent. My gym in TX has free charging & only pays $0.07/kwh commercial rate. If I’m there for an hour I get 40 miles range & he pays$0.77 for the ⚡️. Brighter with Herbert needs to do a deep dive in the cost of electricity, why rates vary with region & what can bring the cost down. Otherwise $0.30/kwh will slow down EV adoption because it is too expensive & might as well keep driving ICE vehicles.
Isn't the average cost of electricity in texas is $0.14/kwh? At $0.30/kwh, there is an arbitrage opportunity. Install rooftop solar and you energize your home and vehicle for a fraction of retail price.
@@northernouthouse $0.14 is the residential rate, $0.07 is the commercial rate (if one purchases between $2,000 to $3,000 per month) & the industrial rate is even lower.
You had me until you said this 11k would be sold in Europe. No chance.
👍
Bring on Steven Mark Ryan.
Hmmm. . . “Not Crashworthy”. . . The extra money required to make the cars USA crashworthy is effectively a North American “Bad Driver Tax”.
The people that are not invested in Tesla it’s like you put your shoes on and ran into a wall. Why would you not wanna invest in this company? Why would you put your shoes on and run into a wall?
lol lol
The USD$11K BYD EV probably needs ~ $2000 in parts to be US street legal. And 0-60 performance is not great, especially for EV. Also, demand is not a sure thing... econo cars have all but disappeared in the US in favor of SUVs & trucks. And, convincing US dealers to carry them might be an uphill battle (low profit margins + not much long term income from repairs/maint).
EV's are far, far more expensive to repair, and maintenance costs (at least Tesla's) are slightly higher than comparable ICE, PHEV's and Hybrids, many of which include free maintenance for the first few years. Dealer maintenance departments love EV's.
@@free-qe6wx The idea is to NOT need to fix them though... so it's irrelevant.
Bruh, meintenance on a tesla is allmost 0. Meintenance onn ice vehicles is high!@@free-qe6wx
@@gasser5001 That idea applies to all vehicles. ICE vehicles today can easily go 10 years without minor/major repairs. How is that EV battery after 10 years?
If Tesla is “Fully Automated “, why are they building that humongous parking garage at GigaTexas?
Just like humans, the robots will go home at the end of their shift.
To keep the rain off the Cybertrucks???
Your blinders are still on.
Tourists? Disney guests?
Tesla FSD will get Tesla the margin of a $5k car. And they might licence it to!
Tesla have a dilemma with the next Gen vehicle. As soon as word gets out sales on the 3 and Y will be impacted. Tesla need to have the release as close to when delivery is available. Then Tesla needs to be able to ramp up production quickly. If Tesla is only producing in Texas that means production will be limited. Production from Mexico needs to be close behind Texas or Tesla could create a demand vacuum that it cannot fill while 3s and Y buyers put off purchases
If that was the case then any other car above a MY wouldn’t sell. They do. There’s 35 million cars made. Tesla made 1.8 million. Where did 33 million sales go then
I find your channel interesting but you might consider posting links to information directly from Seba. I don't trust anyone who doesn't "show their work." This sort of reaction to comments on other comments isn't convincing.
They said they'll begin production of the next gen in the second half of '25. Did Hans mean we'll see the cars in the first quarter of '26, not '25?
There is one thing I don't agree with Tony: he is predicting the world will move to eating some kind of weird kind of fermented factory frankenfood. I think I will stick with nature's food.
Just looking at the US, most people are certainly moving in that direction. There are no Oreos in nature. People sticking with the basics are a fringe minority.
Do you know what’s in your hot dog?
We will be eating Soylent Green
only if you can afford it
@@ordinaryhuman5645 Tony mainly talked about precision fermentation producing milk proteins. This wipes out dairy farming. Compared to AI this is very easy to achieve. Milk proteins plus fat and water equals milk.
Has anyone heard Elon is going bust within the next 5 years?
What do you think Mr. Tony Seba?
"Buy a nice petrol engine car while you can, EVs are a dead duck, much like Elon"
There isn't going to be a $5k car....
tesla bot will be produced in mass scale at giga mexico
Any vehicle coming out of China into the US market should be hit with a 100% tariff. It is a national security issue.
100% agree.
So, we're willing to import chinese spy technology onto our roads as long as we're willing to pay double for it? 😉
I guess you don't have an iPad. Or a phone. Or use the internet. You typed your Comment on a computer made where? Ask China: they can tell you 👻
😂😂😂ok
By the time anything like this makes it to the US it’ll be costing $25k-$30k.
Canada will take them. No 28% tariff here!
LOL… there is no import duty for cars made in Mexico shipped into America.
Just a question, are there Unions in China? Or the fear of losing a job, makes the workers more dedicated.
We can't say Seba projections were correct. Look at his video Keynote - 100% electric transportation and 100% solar by 2030 at the 17:00 mark, his chart says that the avg US car in 2020 31k and 22k in 2022 but the Nissan Leaf is 36k for 212 miles in 2024 in US. He can't change it now to a car sold in China with no safety standards and say he was right.
Our brains have evolved, Hans? I thought it was God who made it right away.
You ARE god, buddy, and YOU’re evolving.
people that believe in evolution accept it on faith. Ironic .
@@thomasanderson7439 Learn, there is more evidence than you could read about in a lifetime. All hail the flying spaghetti monster!
@@thomasanderson7439 Uh, No. It's called science. Evolution has been experimentally tested and proven accurate.
Theistic Evolution my friend. You really stooping to attack his religion?
Be very careful believing anything from Seba....He's a conman..... Is wrong on a lot more than he's been right on...
The Tesla Echo Chamber just keeps on giving. Zero credibility here folks, but still entertaining 😂
Just another clueless perma pumper.
Agree you are clueless
That byd car is ugly and there badge is unappealing just doesn't have the wow factor regardless of price, wouldn't even want it if it was free 😂
Many of us don't give a shyt about "wow factors".