I hope I can speak for everyone in saying the pleasure is all ours!! I tried to cut this convo down for time, but I genuinely enjoyed it too much. Thank you both for making predictions with me! It was a blast!
Ryan you're really knocking it out of the park with these collaborations. I echo Antony's sentiment; always a pleasure to spend some time with fellow cinephiles. So much still up in the air this time of Oscar season. One of the reasons I shaved my hair, to stop myself from pulling it out. It is an impossibility getting all of the categories right. Then you reflect on Oscars nomination morning and think to yourself, how did I not see that nomination coming? lol Best of luck, eagerly anticipating PGA, DGA, SAG & BAFTA nominations. Taking this opportunity Ryan to wish you, Jack & Antony a MERRY CHRISTMAS!! P.S. I wouldn't sleep on Fernanda Torres in Best Actress, that category is primed for a surprise nomination & major snub.
Thanks Dave!!! I can't wait for Golden Globes too because I think you're right in saying Torres could emerge victorious there. It's shaping out to be a very unpredictable season like Antony said with guilds going in different directions. Hope you have a Merry Christmas as well!!! Cheers!
44:40 it almost looks like the Northern Lights are in the background here haha. Don't lose the stats btw! And lovely video, great conversation. Got me thinking a lot on my own predictions.
i refuse to believe Wicked will miss the Makeup and Hairstyle nomination. do the branch really not care at all about hair? Wicked has BY FAR the best hair.
Ryan, I'm just adding to the chorus of fans who are asking you to keep the stats! To me, your brand here on TH-cam IS #OscarStats! You shouldn't stray away from that and I actually think you should lean into it even more! Give us even some more niche stats lol. Just my thoughts!
Love this collab!! I’m with Antony - I’m championing GUY PEARCE for the win in Supporting Actor. He’s an underrated but beloved actor with a solid career behind him. But most of all I think he has the toughest role in his film & in the category to pull off. He can make you laugh & make you hate him! It’s just a fine line to walk & he just stands out to me.
I want to say as someone who has been doing Oscar stats since 1999, you’ve done an excellent job. I’m almost kicking myself for not creating an Oscar channel from the beginning, but I think it’s safe in your hands. For years I’ve been thinking of turning all those stats into a book. Or several books because it would probably be over 1,000 pages.
BTW, there have been 2 movies since the 86th Academy Awards (2014) that were nominated for Editing and Sound yet did NOT get nominated for Best Picture. In 2016, it was "Star Wars: The Force Awakens" and in 2018 with "Baby Driver". I'm a very geeky cinephile and been collecting Oscar stats for decades, so I'm totally with ya' on providing and loving stats!
Emilia Perez should be up for Emmys, not Oscars. It's a TV movie. It's not a proper theatrical release, which is what the Oscars are supposed to be about.
EMILIA PÉREZ had a limited theatrical in the states just like ROMA, THE POWER OF THE DOG etc, and a large one in Europe. I saw it in France where it stayed for like 3 months in theaters. Stop talking nonsense and be serious.
@@siralphey this is serious. In America, Emilia Perez is a streaming movie… just because Netflix did the bare minimum to qualify doesn’t make it a real theatrical movie… There was no goal, no plan to keep it in theaters and make it accessible in theaters across the country. Same with any Netflix movie: They’re streaming first. The Oscars is supposed to be about theater-first movies… We have to stop giving Netflix a pass. You all are letting them leech off the Oscars to lend an air of legitimacy to their streaming movies… and they’re taking up spots that could go to proper theatrical movies. There must be a separation of Theatrical and TV… AGAIN, that’s what the Emmys are for! Keep your TV movies out of the Oscars! And, it’s funny, the joke is on Netflix… because for all the trolling of the Oscars they do, their movies still disappear quickly. Emilia Perez never even charted on Netflix itself.
@brandononbrand you must be new to the party There have been PLENTY of movies from the 70's and 80s that were released for 1 week in LA and NYC to qualify and did garner Oscar Nods This is no different
@ Ryan: Interesting pic for cinematography: The B/W movie from Denmark. Ten years ago another movie called "Ida", which won "Best International" for Poland 2014, also was nominated for "Best Cinematography". 2019 the Academy nominated a B/W movie called "Cold War" also for "Best Cinematography" (including Director and Best International) - the same year Roma (also B/W movie) won "Best Cinematography". The Academy tend to nominate such B/W movies for Cinematography.
The reason The Father was nominated for production design is that it is not a static set. There are subtle changes in the set over the course of the movie in order to reflect the confusion of the title character. The nomination was deserved.
@@scottcopeland3730 I agree. I didn’t mean the nomination confuses me because it wasn’t deserved. But more so confuses me because the Academy doesn’t recognize modern movies often. Cheers
I want to stick my head out for All We Imagine as Light, it’s very underrated and in any other universe where it was sent by a country for international, it could have competed in best film, director and screenplay. But since it’s not, I am hoping the critics love transcends to mainstream Oscars
Adrien Brody, Timothée Chalamet, Daniel Craig, Colman Domingo and Ralph Fiennes For supporting actor I have Kieran Culkin, Yura Borisnov, Edward Norton, Guy Pearce and Denzel Washington
3 movies WON Picture and noting else (BROADWAY MELODY (1929), GRAND HOTEL (1932), and MUTINY ON THE BOUNTY (1935)). GRAND HOTEL is the only ever film in Oscars history to have Picture as its sole nomination and win it.
Original Screenplay I have Anora, The Brutalist, Hard Truths, The Substance and A Real Pain Adaptad Screenplay I have Conclave, Dune Part II, Emilia Perez, Wicked and Nickel Boys
I loved Anora! Dune2! A Complete Unknown Was phenomenal Timothee Chamelet was amazing I saw it 2x already I felt like the fly on the wall I haven’t seen the Brutalist that’s it. Brody is a fabulous actor I feel Ralph was doing his usual let go with the future of Hollywood it need a boost so give to Timothee he’s a great ambassador for Hollywood quick on his feet inventive willing to go the extra mile to promote it could be fun !
Someone explain to me why the Better Man song got shortlisted AND THEN they found out it allegedly plagiarized a big music branch of the academy boss? It was then when they showed it to him or what?
I don’t understand why Zoe Saldana would be in a supporting category when she’s in 95% of the movie. I hope she does get a supporting nod because then her chances of winning the Oscar is far greater than in the actress category. I think that Zoe‘s chances of winning that category is because she has done a phenomenal role in the lion us and I think that Academy voters would look at her TV performance as well as her acting performance. They could see that she goes from one side of the spectrum to the other side of the spec trim, showing that she is really a great actress. I think her nomination is going to put her in the upper class of actress that she has never been on. Selena Gomez, on the other hand, does a fantastic acting job, however, as a celebrity, she carries a lot of baggage with her. It’s the same with Timothy Chalamet, His chances of winning will be cut by a certain percentage over the fact that he is dating a member of the Kardashian family and people may say that his connection with one of them can hurt his chances by the members of the Academy over 30. You may saythat this may not influence the membership, however, I believe than many of them read the tabloids daily for the gossip.
I'm calling it now that Alice Brooks receives a cinematography nomination for Wicked purely because of the song and dance sequences alone. That's my final guess. If she got in at the critics choice, she can get in at the Oscars and the bafta.
The cinematography is awful and would never, ever get nominated. The critics choice always has some dumb nominations, most of them aren't even real critics, much less individuals who really understand the art/craft of the technical categories.
@Zuranthium I think solely because Nosferatu is horror, they're going to disqualify it from the Oscars or even just nominated but something else will win. La La Land won cinematography Les Mis was nominated and so was Chicago. It's not definite, but it will definitely be a contender just for those reasons alone. The academy will think otherwise.
@@AntsTheaterCorner2698 Nosferatu might not get nominated, but Wicked never would. Its lighting is nowhere close to the level of La La Land and Chicago. Les Mis did not get nominated, btw.
Cinematographers branch are consistently solid from a nominations standpoint. Also, don't forget that branches nominate (cinematographers vote for Cinematography, costume designers for Costume Design, directors for Directing etc.) while EVERYONE votes for the winner. WICKED has been particularly criticized for cinematography, and I think the cinematographers branch will notice that during nominations voting. Let us not forget that THE LIGHTHOUSE (from the same director as NOSFERATU) received its only nomination in this category.
I think film twitter, Oscar pundits and critics are overestimating Dune Part Two….😬 It’s a good movie…but if it’s not blowing people away months later, does it still have momentum? We can blame the early release date but EEAAO and Get Out were released early in the year as well and had the advantage of “surprising people” - I don’t think Dune Part Two surprised people. As mentioned in the video, everyone was expecting it to be better than part one
Agreed. And while it was better, many could argue that it's going to get the same treatment as Avatar. 2 at the Oscars. Four nominations and maybe one win. For Dune 3, it might be different. They might actually give the director his due for his final trilogy installment.
Will and Harper is also a friendship story and about trans rights so not a typical biopic documentary. No Other Land will get nominated but it is cowardly that no studio has stepped up to distribute it. Also I feel the Incredible Life of Ibiblean may be close.
Wonderful to chat with a fellow cinephile! Thanks to Ryan and his community for welcoming us this episode. Happy holidays!
I hope I can speak for everyone in saying the pleasure is all ours!! I tried to cut this convo down for time, but I genuinely enjoyed it too much. Thank you both for making predictions with me! It was a blast!
Thanks for having us on!! We had a blast! 😁
The stats are awesome, don't stop!
Ryan you're really knocking it out of the park with these collaborations. I echo Antony's sentiment; always a pleasure to spend some time with fellow cinephiles. So much still up in the air this time of Oscar season. One of the reasons I shaved my hair, to stop myself from pulling it out. It is an impossibility getting all of the categories right. Then you reflect on Oscars nomination morning and think to yourself, how did I not see that nomination coming? lol Best of luck, eagerly anticipating PGA, DGA, SAG & BAFTA nominations. Taking this opportunity Ryan to wish you, Jack & Antony a MERRY CHRISTMAS!! P.S. I wouldn't sleep on Fernanda Torres in Best Actress, that category is primed for a surprise nomination & major snub.
Thanks Dave!!! I can't wait for Golden Globes too because I think you're right in saying Torres could emerge victorious there. It's shaping out to be a very unpredictable season like Antony said with guilds going in different directions. Hope you have a Merry Christmas as well!!! Cheers!
44:40 it almost looks like the Northern Lights are in the background here haha.
Don't lose the stats btw! And lovely video, great conversation. Got me thinking a lot on my own predictions.
Yo, another nice collab, awesome!
I agree with Jack on Dune 2 underperforming more than people will expect!
i refuse to believe Wicked will miss the Makeup and Hairstyle nomination. do the branch really not care at all about hair? Wicked has BY FAR the best hair.
Agreed. Cynthia Erivo's hair is one of the best I've seen and it's so authentic. They gave personality.
The Ox-Bow Incident from 1943 is the most recent film to be nominated for Best Picture and nothing else.
Was just about to type that in. I love that movie! Bought the dvd as soon as it was released!
Oh wow. Such a great film too. That should have gotten Screenplay. Thanks for finding that out!
Yoooooo 3 of the best predictors on this video we love to see it
Ryan, I'm just adding to the chorus of fans who are asking you to keep the stats! To me, your brand here on TH-cam IS #OscarStats! You shouldn't stray away from that and I actually think you should lean into it even more! Give us even some more niche stats lol. Just my thoughts!
10:30 I watch you FOR the stats, and because you’re easily one of the cutest pundits out there, even holding your own this week against a Jaegernaut.
Kneecap is Ireland’s submission not United Kingdom (Santosh). Had to point out the correction.
Great discussion guys! Loved it
Love this collab!! I’m with Antony - I’m championing GUY PEARCE for the win in Supporting Actor. He’s an underrated but beloved actor with a solid career behind him. But most of all I think he has the toughest role in his film & in the category to pull off. He can make you laugh & make you hate him! It’s just a fine line to walk & he just stands out to me.
To me , stats are the best part of your videos ❤
Demi Moore, Mikey Madison, Nicole Kidman, Cynthia Erivo and either Angelina Jolie or Marie-Jean Baptiste
Demi Moore for sure.The Best 2024 performace.Perfect 👏👏
I want to say as someone who has been doing Oscar stats since 1999, you’ve done an excellent job. I’m almost kicking myself for not creating an Oscar channel from the beginning, but I think it’s safe in your hands. For years I’ve been thinking of turning all those stats into a book. Or several books because it would probably be over 1,000 pages.
I'd definitely turn those stats into a book, so I can buy and read it. And thanks!! I'm glad I'm doing the stats justice!
BTW, there have been 2 movies since the 86th Academy Awards (2014) that were nominated for Editing and Sound yet did NOT get nominated for Best Picture. In 2016, it was "Star Wars: The Force Awakens" and in 2018 with "Baby Driver". I'm a very geeky cinephile and been collecting Oscar stats for decades, so I'm totally with ya' on providing and loving stats!
Finally someone saying what I feel, about Joker 2 being worthy of a cinematography nom!!!
LOVE the stats. Keep em coming
Keep up the stats
Emilia Perez should be up for Emmys, not Oscars. It's a TV movie. It's not a proper theatrical release, which is what the Oscars are supposed to be about.
EMILIA PÉREZ had a limited theatrical in the states just like ROMA, THE POWER OF THE DOG etc, and a large one in Europe. I saw it in France where it stayed for like 3 months in theaters. Stop talking nonsense and be serious.
@@siralphey this is serious. In America, Emilia Perez is a streaming movie… just because Netflix did the bare minimum to qualify doesn’t make it a real theatrical movie… There was no goal, no plan to keep it in theaters and make it accessible in theaters across the country. Same with any Netflix movie: They’re streaming first.
The Oscars is supposed to be about theater-first movies… We have to stop giving Netflix a pass. You all are letting them leech off the Oscars to lend an air of legitimacy to their streaming movies… and they’re taking up spots that could go to proper theatrical movies.
There must be a separation of Theatrical and TV… AGAIN, that’s what the Emmys are for! Keep your TV movies out of the Oscars!
And, it’s funny, the joke is on Netflix… because for all the trolling of the Oscars they do, their movies still disappear quickly. Emilia Perez never even charted on Netflix itself.
@brandononbrand you must be new to the party
There have been PLENTY of movies from the 70's and 80s that were released for 1 week in LA and NYC to qualify and did garner Oscar Nods
This is no different
I can see All We Imagine as Light getting a boost at the BAFTAS and making it to the BP and BD lineup
@ Ryan: Interesting pic for cinematography: The B/W movie from Denmark. Ten years ago another movie called "Ida", which won "Best International" for Poland 2014, also was nominated for "Best Cinematography". 2019 the Academy nominated a B/W movie called "Cold War" also for "Best Cinematography" (including Director and Best International) - the same year Roma (also B/W movie) won "Best Cinematography". The Academy tend to nominate such B/W movies for Cinematography.
A subdued film like the conclave is harder to direct than a film that is over the top or unique.
The reason The Father was nominated for production design is that it is not a static set. There are subtle changes in the set over the course of the movie in order to reflect the confusion of the title character. The nomination was deserved.
@@scottcopeland3730 I agree. I didn’t mean the nomination confuses me because it wasn’t deserved. But more so confuses me because the Academy doesn’t recognize modern movies often. Cheers
I want to stick my head out for All We Imagine as Light, it’s very underrated and in any other universe where it was sent by a country for international, it could have competed in best film, director and screenplay. But since it’s not, I am hoping the critics love transcends to mainstream Oscars
I want this! If All We Imagine pops up in Director or Picture I’ll be out of my chair so excited.
I absolutely LOVE stats!
Stats are great!!!
Adrien Brody, Timothée Chalamet, Daniel Craig, Colman Domingo and Ralph Fiennes
For supporting actor I have Kieran Culkin, Yura Borisnov, Edward Norton, Guy Pearce and Denzel Washington
Also I think Grand Hotel was the last film to only get nominated in Picture (and win…)
3 movies WON Picture and noting else (BROADWAY MELODY (1929), GRAND HOTEL (1932), and MUTINY ON THE BOUNTY (1935)). GRAND HOTEL is the only ever film in Oscars history to have Picture as its sole nomination and win it.
Cinematography I have Dune Part II, Conclave, Maria, The Brutalist and Nosferatu
We love a stat! Specially in prep for your science content come the new year!
Original Screenplay I have Anora, The Brutalist, Hard Truths, The Substance and A Real Pain
Adaptad Screenplay I have Conclave, Dune Part II, Emilia Perez, Wicked and Nickel Boys
No Sing Sing?
more stats! please give us all the stats
I know the chances are slim, but I still hope “how to make millions before grandma dies” gets nominated. This film feels so personal to me.
I loved Anora! Dune2!
A Complete Unknown
Was phenomenal Timothee Chamelet was amazing I saw it 2x already I felt like the fly on the wall I haven’t seen the Brutalist that’s it. Brody is a fabulous actor I feel Ralph was doing his usual let go with the future of Hollywood it need a boost so give to Timothee he’s a great ambassador for Hollywood quick on his feet inventive willing to go the extra mile to promote it could be fun !
I saved this video in my film/oscar category.. lol
Someone explain to me why the Better Man song got shortlisted AND THEN they found out it allegedly plagiarized a big music branch of the academy boss? It was then when they showed it to him or what?
Best foreign film
×------------------------×
manjummel boys🤯
The goat life 😢
Anyone tell me what do I do with shorts? Do the GD five and call it a day?
The makeup stat is that it usually corolates with transformative acting nominees. However I do believe Karla might get snubbed.
TH-cam podcasting has surpassed network television in quality and content. 🎉
Ryan. We are here for the stats. We are not bored by stats. Don’t second guess your audience interest in stats. We always need more stats, stat!!
Haha! Good to hear! I wasn’t sure if people rolled their eyes at stats or enjoyed them. Thanks for the feedback!
I don’t understand why Zoe Saldana would be in a supporting category when she’s in 95% of the movie. I hope she does get a supporting nod because then her chances of winning the Oscar is far greater than in the actress category. I think that Zoe‘s chances of winning that category is because she has done a phenomenal role in the lion us and I think that Academy voters would look at her TV performance as well as her acting performance. They could see that she goes from one side of the spectrum to the other side of the spec trim, showing that she is really a great actress. I think her nomination is going to put her in the upper class of actress that she has never been on. Selena Gomez, on the other hand, does a fantastic acting job, however, as a celebrity, she carries a lot of baggage with her. It’s the same with Timothy Chalamet, His chances of winning will be cut by a certain percentage over the fact that he is dating a member of the Kardashian family and people may say that his connection with one of them can hurt his chances by the members of the Academy over 30. You may saythat this may not influence the membership, however, I believe than many of them read the tabloids daily for the gossip.
Cillian Murphy should win for Best Actor and "Small Things Like These" should win for Best Picture.
I still think Nicole Kidman will be one of the nominees. Would also not be surprised to see Marie-Jean Baptiste
Do the stats!!!!
I'm calling it now that Alice Brooks receives a cinematography nomination for Wicked purely because of the song and dance sequences alone. That's my final guess. If she got in at the critics choice, she can get in at the Oscars and the bafta.
The cinematography is awful and would never, ever get nominated. The critics choice always has some dumb nominations, most of them aren't even real critics, much less individuals who really understand the art/craft of the technical categories.
@Zuranthium I think solely because Nosferatu is horror, they're going to disqualify it from the Oscars or even just nominated but something else will win. La La Land won cinematography Les Mis was nominated and so was Chicago. It's not definite, but it will definitely be a contender just for those reasons alone. The academy will think otherwise.
@@AntsTheaterCorner2698 Nosferatu might not get nominated, but Wicked never would. Its lighting is nowhere close to the level of La La Land and Chicago. Les Mis did not get nominated, btw.
Cinematographers branch are consistently solid from a nominations standpoint. Also, don't forget that branches nominate (cinematographers vote for Cinematography, costume designers for Costume Design, directors for Directing etc.) while EVERYONE votes for the winner. WICKED has been particularly criticized for cinematography, and I think the cinematographers branch will notice that during nominations voting. Let us not forget that THE LIGHTHOUSE (from the same director as NOSFERATU) received its only nomination in this category.
@@axr7149 well said.
Demi Moore the Next Academy Awards Best Actress 👏👏👏👏👏👏
I think film twitter, Oscar pundits and critics are overestimating Dune Part Two….😬
It’s a good movie…but if it’s not blowing people away months later, does it still have momentum? We can blame the early release date but EEAAO and Get Out were released early in the year as well and had the advantage of “surprising people” - I don’t think Dune Part Two surprised people. As mentioned in the video, everyone was expecting it to be better than part one
Agreed. And while it was better, many could argue that it's going to get the same treatment as Avatar. 2 at the Oscars. Four nominations and maybe one win. For Dune 3, it might be different. They might actually give the director his due for his final trilogy installment.
Will and Harper is also a friendship story and about trans rights so not a typical biopic documentary.
No Other Land will get nominated but it is cowardly that no studio has stepped up to distribute it.
Also I feel the Incredible Life of Ibiblean may be close.
I don't think Poor Things won make up for Emma Stone's character so I don't think it's fair to draw parallels.
Ryan. are you actor ? you are so handsome
Challengers deserves more love. A far superior film than Queer IMO
Kneecap is submitted by Ireland. Jesus….🤦♂️
"The Whoreness" . . . ditto Ryan, ditto
Do you really lixes Emília Perez? Really?
I only like The Oscar Expert channel. These guys are too stoopid with their choices 😂😂😂😂😂
Among these three one is very cute 🥺 and other two are very hot 🥵. A hot bunch of film critics lol
Lol so funny you are doubting The Substance. You definitely have no balls lol