Jwin rarely, if ever, has a loose jack. Once in a blue moon he might have ace-jack, which Hai also loses to. You can absolutely print money by folding trips no kicker when people put in postflop raises. Maybe look at a solver and see what Jwin's bet-3-bet river bluffs are supposed to be, and ask yourself if he is ever doing that, and determine that the answer is absolutely not because he is trying to exploit you and you obviously have at least a jack, if not something stronger that he's just igniting his stack against. I would find this quite an easy fold actually.
Hello Jonathan. Thank you for the content and I did notice the poker coaching shark lid! YES, that late in the game and that board, JWIN probably would have shoved with only 3 Js.
Yep. Unless I'm missing something Q-Q, J-Q and 2-2 are only hands that beat you. Those are pretty good odds a J is good especially when you block J's. And if I had a 2 or J, I'd probably think they were good especially a J.
When Jwin shoves for 286 BB total after a 90 BB raise, I don't like it but I hope I would get away from it. What do you think Jwin's range is here? At best you think is running a fantastic play with QTs, KTs, and T9s (11combos) and he runs it +40% of the time. As well as believing he would overvalue a J(4) and you're chopping? The most probable is you lose to QJ (1)-QQ(3)-22(1). If you assume he bluffs @40% then you win ~33%, chop ~30%, and lose ~37%. This then makes me agnostic and you flip a coin to see if I call or fold. If you believe Jwin has no bluffs and only a J or better then it is an easier fold. Looking at Jwin's Actions they were Raise, Bet, Bet, Bet, Raise All-In. When the turn bricks all the flush draws if Jwin had Jxs from +1 I believe he would be checking a lot of the time for pot control as his hand is clearly marginal, but betting a lot of the bluffs and value hands above. Jwin's turn action is what discounts a Jxs 3! shove on the river. Additionally, Jwin may have a tell here when he shoves as he very deliberately places the stack of chips with the highest denominations when he goes all in vs his normal flick. I have noticed this slow deliberate movement leans to strength and is something I would monitor going forward.
I think we may have very different definitions of bad beats. Never used that term for the player with the strongest hand having the strongest hand on every single street...
I like 1/2 pot on the turn to give open-ended a mildly bad price (they have 18% and need 25%, and the board is paired) and get in some decent value vs queens… Dont like the river sizing. Board is now double-paired. I think we should make a polarized sizing (like 1.5x - 2x pot) which we should use with all our jacks. We are targeting a few deuces (A2s) and his jacks. Which means we need to also have some big bluffs in here which I think should come from KT and T9 that missed. [edit. Whoo I didn’t even think of trying to get raised!]
I feel like if he were bluffing on the flop with a gutshot backdoor flush they have to give up on the rainbow board-pairing turn. I may call turn with my bluff catcher but certainly not a river bet
May be exploitable but I think I find a crying fold here. Queens or deuces probably play similarly on each street to QJ all of which beat us. Too nitty?
I don't play with people who 3-bet bluff this at any reasonable frequency, so I'd assume I'm calling to chop which I don't have the price to do (putting in 8K to win 6.2K I think) so I hate everything and fold. If I thought my opponent's have 1-2 bluff hands then I'd need to call at those stakes maybe people have them.
Do you think JWIN would 3-bet shove on the river with just a jack?
Jwin rarely, if ever, has a loose jack. Once in a blue moon he might have ace-jack, which Hai also loses to. You can absolutely print money by folding trips no kicker when people put in postflop raises. Maybe look at a solver and see what Jwin's bet-3-bet river bluffs are supposed to be, and ask yourself if he is ever doing that, and determine that the answer is absolutely not because he is trying to exploit you and you obviously have at least a jack, if not something stronger that he's just igniting his stack against. I would find this quite an easy fold actually.
Hello Jonathan. Thank you for the content and I did notice the poker coaching shark lid! YES, that late in the game and that board, JWIN probably would have shoved with only 3 Js.
Yep. Unless I'm missing something Q-Q, J-Q and 2-2 are only hands that beat you. Those are pretty good odds a J is good especially when you block J's. And if I had a 2 or J, I'd probably think they were good especially a J.
When Jwin shoves for 286 BB total after a 90 BB raise, I don't like it but I hope I would get away from it. What do you think Jwin's range is here? At best you think is running a fantastic play with QTs, KTs, and T9s (11combos) and he runs it +40% of the time. As well as believing he would overvalue a J(4) and you're chopping? The most probable is you lose to QJ (1)-QQ(3)-22(1). If you assume he bluffs @40% then you win ~33%, chop ~30%, and lose ~37%. This then makes me agnostic and you flip a coin to see if I call or fold. If you believe Jwin has no bluffs and only a J or better then it is an easier fold.
Looking at Jwin's Actions they were Raise, Bet, Bet, Bet, Raise All-In. When the turn bricks all the flush draws if Jwin had Jxs from +1 I believe he would be checking a lot of the time for pot control as his hand is clearly marginal, but betting a lot of the bluffs and value hands above. Jwin's turn action is what discounts a Jxs 3! shove on the river.
Additionally, Jwin may have a tell here when he shoves as he very deliberately places the stack of chips with the highest denominations when he goes all in vs his normal flick. I have noticed this slow deliberate movement leans to strength and is something I would monitor going forward.
@@hymnofashes learn how to play poker first. Aj is the same full house. U play 5 cards not 6
What is Freddy Mercury doing at the table? LOL
Hai was behind on every street. Definitely a cooler but where was the bad beat?
What's Freddie Mercury's favourite EPT tourney? Barcelona!
There are no bad beats in poker, it's just a process! - Johnathan Little
until rakes eaten you alive with bunch of pros on table right? Lol
I think we may have very different definitions of bad beats. Never used that term for the player with the strongest hand having the strongest hand on every single street...
There was a recent EPT where the last hand was top full house vs quads ouch
i would consider it. But would have called. In most cases this is a split pot.
I like 1/2 pot on the turn to give open-ended a mildly bad price (they have 18% and need 25%, and the board is paired) and get in some decent value vs queens…
Dont like the river sizing. Board is now double-paired. I think we should make a polarized sizing (like 1.5x - 2x pot) which we should use with all our jacks. We are targeting a few deuces (A2s) and his jacks. Which means we need to also have some big bluffs in here which I think should come from KT and T9 that missed.
[edit. Whoo I didn’t even think of trying to get raised!]
what does Hai's raise on the river accomplish?
him losing a LOT more money.
Raising was fine. Trying to get value from aq kq aa. But calling off all in was very bad. U have to put him on qq qj 22
I very often try bluffs by looking at my hand first and then raising the river.. and for some reason, it didnt work that often 😅😂
No
Just call with the J9
I feel like if he were bluffing on the flop with a gutshot backdoor flush they have to give up on the rainbow board-pairing turn. I may call turn with my bluff catcher but certainly not a river bet
Great vlog as usual, if i had the jq id run into qq, lol.
Freddie Mercury is alive!
May be exploitable but I think I find a crying fold here. Queens or deuces probably play similarly on each street to QJ all of which beat us. Too nitty?
I don't think I ever would have folded. But in my defense, there are too many crazy people at my tables.
I don't play with people who 3-bet bluff this at any reasonable frequency, so I'd assume I'm calling to chop which I don't have the price to do (putting in 8K to win 6.2K I think) so I hate everything and fold. If I thought my opponent's have 1-2 bluff hands then I'd need to call at those stakes maybe people have them.
Bad Beat is right. Is there any better situation in poker than have the unlikely nuts and have your opp think they are golden? Great video as always.
no fold so many value hands you are beating
I WOULD FOLD
Definitely folding a percentage of the time
Why limp 100$ if BigBlind is 50$?
Blinds are: 25/50+50/100.