There are 2 possible straight flushes, aces full of queens, or a bluff. Those are the only possible 4 hands for the opponent. A river bluff for $42k seems pretty unlikely at these stakes. All of the main action occurred on the river once more hands could be made. Pocket aces played this way doesn't make a lot of sense. Straight or royal flush makes most sense. I'd be calling the 6800, but not reraising with the intention of folding to a reraise.
It would really depend on the reg, but on that board I’d say they had a set of aces and thought they were up against a flush draw. But could’ve been straight flush. If she was playing within her bankroll, I’d just call and take the L if they show the straight flush and the go online and write up a bad beat story. Lol
Do you know the odds,??! I do it’s 1 in 7,000,000 so if you have had this happen to you twice? Your talking better odds than hitting the 6$ billion dollar power ball by like 2 to 3 odds
@@biggawinnacrapsa3870When have you seen a high-stakes reg 5-bet bluff on a river on a board like that. You can only be hoping someone was overvaluing aces full but even a high stakes reg wouldn't do that for a 5-bet.
Never a fold. I don't care what you say, the chances of him having AA are higher than the RF, and if I'm beat I have one of the best bad beat stories ever.
you actually want to have that bad beat coz that way youre more popular than if you win one hand and then every time you have a loseing session you can remember to everyone "i so unlucky i lost even with quads" its win win to call and even pray to lose butty!
Flatted pre, then checked all the way down to the river. It's more likely that they're bluffing with the Jd blocker than overvaluing AA with all that river action.
REMEMBER, when holding a monster you're praying for opponents with smaller monsters. Be careful what you wish for and don't psych yourself out in the process.
Is that a fact? I'm really asking, from listening to the story I put him on pocket deuces. And ended up with deuces full of Queens and assumed maybe she had the nut flush with the King of diamonds.
Don't fold sets - Doug Polk Fold quads - Jonathan Little Edit: In doing more study JL is dead right on his assesment of the hand, although horribly played by the hero imo. But my comment looking back is pretty funny!
@@PokerCoaching they're not, but as a general rule you don't fold sets, yet alone quads. If there are 4 diamonds on the board or an open ended straight 10 through King, and your read is he has a diamond or an ace in each case...Sure, you can fold if you get 3 bet on the river, or jammed on the turn if you think he has it.
@@CanadianLoveKnot Well in lower stakes if you are not folding sets you are a total fish as people way way underbluff.Even live higher stakes you wont see that many river bluff raises.
@@Gos1234567 I'm not disagreeing with you - just adding - in lower stakes players also don't consider your holdings so they will often re-raise with what they think is the best hand, tptk or two pair. That is why it's not -EV (total fish move) to fold sets, unless the river completes the obvious hands that beat a set.
I mean you’re definitely right it’s gotta depend on the line cause I bet I could get you to fold to my KK, representing A,K so yeah I would mix in some folds and some calls tho so I’m not getting exploited
You can't fold because he can easily have AA and think it's unbeatable. If he backed into a str8 flush so be it. You shouldn't play those stakes if you're afraid to call with quads.
100% agreed with you man. If you sticking 21k in already there’s no reason to not stick a bit more. You should have already made your decision of all in before you raising at those stakes game. If you try to save money, that just mean the stakes too high for you. Unless she can see through opponents cards to make that fold.
Is he (Reg) checking flop and turn with AA? No way, IMHO. I agree with John that I don't play at level to have a relevant opinion, BUT, I am surprised at the checked Turn...she let him get there. Make the draws pay to see the River. I certainly AM NOT good enough to make that fold, she is!
@@saladking2370 Wrong, this is a once in a lifetime situation. You can't make regular rules about it. If you are fine with playing stakes this high then how can you be this scared to call a min raise with quads?
Sir you hit the nail on the head, you can see the ego with professional poker players playing at lower levels shows that your weak she's playing over her head simple as that & that affects your analysis when your in the hand.
Not really cause I doubt she sat with 800bb, she probably stacked smone a couple of times, and you can't leave the table especially if it's the whale who also has a 800bb stack
Being uncomfortable losing is always something that a winning player is going to do. Your comment makes no sense. Being so deep stacked means you get more info. The idea is that this extra info creates a very rare betting pattern that justifies assuming this is the very improbably case where you are up against a straight flush with quads.
It would be wrong for me to fold in this spot as it would be a jackpot hand, and in my local £1/£1 game at the movement the quad Qs is worth 40,000 bb, I would call praying I was beat hahaha
This actually happened to me a couple years ago at a Station Casino poker room in LV. I was at my regular $2/4 limit holdem game when I flopped a set of jacks. The flop came Kc 10c Jd and all players checked before I made the minimum $2 bet. The SB called and everyone else folded. The turn card was Jc; the SB bet the $4 minimum and the board now had Jd Jc Kc 10c. There was a progressive bad beat jackpot which was worth $175k with quad 8s to qualify. The table rules allowed for no limit play when playing heads up; so I was all in before the river card. At showdown the SB turned over a 9-k straight flush to beat my quad jacks. I got 50% as the "lucky" loser; the winner got 15% and the rest was divided among all players seated at any Station Casino poker room when the bad beat jackpot was hit.
He brought out the digital calculator to punch out odds, and I'm like, Fool, I'm NEVER, EVER, EVER going to fold Quads! Regardless of what your poker, geeky analysis says. Take my money if you got better Quads, a Straight Flush, or better a Royal Flush. I can live with that.
There is not enough information to make a conclusion about Kym's play. The information that Jonathan either didn't know about or decided not to share was that later in Kym's tweets she states that she plays her own bank only and does not play cash games staked. The tone of her tweet also left me thinking that she was reluctant to put 42K more in the pot because of her bank. The other vital information that we don't know is, who is the reg that got her to fold? Does she know the reg very well? Has she played these stakes with the reg before? Is she almost certain to know that this particular reg is only going to shove with the nuts? Or is this reg capable of shoving without the nuts? The most important information of all that we don't know about the reg is, what is his bank? Is he a reg and a multi millionaire? Billionaire? Is the reg staked? Or is he similar to Kym, a grinder playing too deep in to his bank. I don't really have a problem with her folding just out of bankroll considerations. It's one hand of poker that got expensive. She put herself in to the position of bankroll being a deciding factor. I'm shocked that a gambler would do this to themselves :-) So perhaps Kym was being undisciplined with her bankroll prior to this hand but decided to reign it in and just cut her loss. I don't think a bankroll fold would mean she can be bluffed in the future more easily or more often.
Why is villain check KJdd on that flop multi way? Isn't this a bet 100? He has the range advantage and doesn't have a made hand. Then to check the turn when he makes the flush on a board where is hand is vulnerable to a lot of rivers And he could get a ton of value from all A x and Q x hands? I see this line being way more consistent with AA as opposed to a rivered Royal. I actually think J9dd is more likely to be present here than KJdd.
I mean, I’ve had quads once in live poker (aces) against an OMC. I checked it twice because I could tell he just didn’t have anything. Looking back on it, I’d probably just bet the turn, but I doubt he’d have called more than 20% of the time, if that.
Just a few days ago in an $11 dollar tournament, I led out on a river after I made a small flush on a 3 heart board (I can provide more context if needed), only to get raised all in afterward. I asked if he was capable of doing this with the naked Ace of hearts, then tanked called, and he showed up with Ah5x as a bluff. Here's the message, there are sickos at all levels of poker.
This is your best video in a long time. Your analysis is stellar and there are also many truths you mention which could be applied to both poker and life in general. Thank you for all the content you create.
Don't the two assumptions neccessary for this fold sort of work against each other? We're saying Villain is so good he never overvalues AA but he's not good enough to have the requisite one bluff that would justify our making the call. Also, if I made a fold like this I'm not telling anybody. Isn't it just going to be a nightmare when the good players you have to play against now know you can be bullied off quads with enough pressure?
Think it's still a call, maybe you find folds in 2-5 games against regs who would underbluff this spot to this point where it doesn't make up for the times they overplay AA. But unless this player was particularly nitty I think the amount of times they'll bluff in this spot (and it doesn't have to be that often) with the Jd justifies a call in a higher stakes game. The other thing about QQ is that it doesn't block AA - which can overplay occasionally and AJo with the Jd, which is the most plausible bluff. I do agree that this is a highly read-dependent spot, though, but I think it's important to note (and I think you did a decent job in the video of noting) that we shouldn't be making these kinds of folds against really good, aggressive players.
With AxJd as a bluff you are blocking both her possible AA and AQ, so what are you hoping to make her fold? Quads? You realize that's just 1 combo, right? I'm not sure there is a player in the world able to run a bluff like that, it would also be highly -EV.
Reg has pocket AA and flopped a boat. Checked in first position, hoping opponent had a Q, possibly another fullhouse, or a Flush. If you are going to fold quads, just give me your money and save the trip 😉
I think JdJx is a possibility as well which is why I wouldn't have folded. Does he open j9dd ep if not he has one value combo and 1 bluff combo but he could have more than 1 bluff combo.... Either way the odds make it a call.
90% sure it was AA, 5% JJ with jd, and 5% TT folding quads here makes no sense. Even though there are 2 possible stright flush, it’s actually just 1 because you need jd for both. So you are actually folding the effective second nuts. Is KJ or J9 really gonna open 200 in a 20/40 or is it more likely for AA to do it and she just flated with QQ?
If she put her opponent on as weak as KJ or J9 suited preflop, why didn’t she reraise then preflop? If she was afraid of the straight flush draw on the flop, then why didn’t she bet her quads, knowing someone can’t fold? Why does she just “all of a sudden” think he is good for quads? Why not raise a lesser amount on the river if you intend to fold to a reraise? Would you not raise less so that the reraise would be cheaper? With all of these illogical actions, how can we trust that her logic on the river is solid judgement? She’s playing way out of her limit. That’s all.
Yea i feel like every street in this hand was played absolutely horribly and she still somehow managed to get max value on the river and didnt take it. This may be the single worst played poker hand in history besides me bluffing 2/7 off for 3 streets every time its dealt at my home game
8s, 10s, As, AKd, JJd, all could have reasonably been played exactly like this. J9dd seems like an odd open raise in EP, so KJdd is really the only hand you absolutely have to worry about (also, why you shouldn't just check the flop when there is an A on the board), that's 23 hands I beat and 1 I don't. If I'm not going to call, then I'm certainly not 4-betting - so folding. If I get stacked with QQQQ, then I guess I'm going to go get a massage, enjoy a nice glass of scotch, take in a show, and probably not play for a couple days.
The only hands that would 3x 5B jam on the R for value is AA's and even that would be very thin. J9dd is a completely normal open from EP aswell. It definitely depends on the player but folding here is not terrible and her reasoning makes sense.
@@daneleblanc4636 Little was advising folding quads. My point was that villain could take this line with aces and hence hero should call quads because you beat some of the value shoving range.
Just ran this in solver, which recommends raising QQ pre at a 100% frequency at these stack depths. Checking through flop and turn is ok, but we do want to mix in bets at some frequency. River raise to $21k is far too large, solver likes $12k. Once villain re-jams, solver has this at a 100% call, with EV(call) being significantly higher than EV(fold).
for some reason I would've loved it if in this Spot one Player has the Jd and the other one plays Kd9d and both make the str8 flush impossible and the one who jams first wins the pot, lol
This video really put me in my place and I have to take that and learn from it of I want to be a better poker player and a better person for that matter. I was one of her critics, spewing my opinion on the matter as if I’ve ever had to make a decision for $42k in a poker game. That’s 2 years worth of my rent, for Christ’s sake. Thank you, Jonathan Little for posting this video. Sometimes we need to be put in our place and you’ve done that. I’m regretful and embarrassed of what I’ve said. I’m a low stakes grinder and I have no right to criticize the decision that someone like her makes. She’s an amazing poker player and if I want to ever have a shot to be as good as her, I need moments like this to humble me and keep my goddamned ego in check. Thanks again, Man.
Danny M I think you may have misread. The point I’m making is that I shouldn’t be offering my critique on someone who is playing stakes so high that the call is 42k when 42k is two years worth of rent for me. My bankroll can barely support 5/10 NL. I usually only play 1/2 NL and step up to 5/10 NL when I can, which isn’t often.
Michael Wilson hello sir, have you told her that youre sorry/were too ’fast’ ? Or should her twitter feed be filled with all these two-cents comments ?
Michael Wilson i read your comment correctly. Stop gambling. If you’re worried about losing money, regardless if it’s 1/2 or 100/200 big cash games, then you shouldn’t play at all.
I completely agree with your analysis. She definetly should have bet at least the turn. This is one of the spots where you just have to fold against a tight player and have to call against an aggressive player on the river. There is nothing else to say about that hand. She could have played the flop and the turn better, but the river was totally fine if she thinks her opponent isnt bluffing.
I think the challenge for most lower stakes players is they just can’t imagine a game where the reg will never be overvaluing AA /TT here. Your point about realizing where you have no useful knowledge is well taken, but I’m going to keep tweeting about sports :)
It's true that it may be the right fold, but the EP has AA and since he's a whale opening up front how can you fold when he might be thinking she can have AQ? By blocking AQ that seems quite possible. If she said she folded to someone good at hand reading that seems like a different story, but that is not the case. If she says nit of all nits then it's a different story. Am I wrong?
Shoving AA is not over valuing in this situation. You can beat all the full houses in which there are 12 combos (i have discounted Q8) and you are only losing to three combos of straight flushes and quads. So yeah.
Here's my line of thought. - The Reg cannot have AA because if he did, he would unblock the nuts (i.e. KdJd) plus 2 other better hands than AA (Jd9d and QQ), all of which Kym could have, so he would be crazy to 5-bet shove with the 4th best hand - This obviously rules out the Reg having any Full Houses - So then, the Reg must have Jd and the question becomes what his other card is - In other words, the crucial question is HOW WIDE HE IS OPENING FROM EARLY POSITION - Given that they are playing super deep with hundreds of blinds, I believe the Reg could be opening with the following hands (that contain Jd): AxJd (4 combos), KxJd (4 combos), pocket JxJd (3 combos) and Jd9d (1 combo) = 12 COMBOS in total - Kym loses to 2 combos (KdJd and Jd9d) and beats 10 combos of bluff - Mathematically, this means that Kym should call if she believes she's getting at least 12 to 10 pot odds (so only 1.2 to 1!) - Since she's actually getting more than 2:1, this implies a CLEAR CALL - Also, note that even if we assign the Reg a tighter opening range from EP and assume he only opens suited AdJd, suited KdJd and pocket JxJd (and NOT Jd9d), this is 5 combos but now Kym only loses to 1 combo (KdJd) and beats 4 combos of bluff, thereby still needing only 1.2 to 1 to call --> STILL A CALL
I like your logic here and of course, you have the right conclusion which is a call based on GTO, however, you must also understand most players will not be thinking this deep at that moment, so one can't "obviously" rule out the reg having a full house. Have you played in of the run of the mill card rooms?
@@ionalien I have seen it, actually won the pot myself because I had set of queens. The guy was drunk. Go play at Oaks in Oakland. what you describe won't be so out of ordinary.
Easiest way to look at this is to simplify the matter. Had the villian had KJdd, he would 100% show the table because everyone, even pros, show a royal flush just for the impact. He did not show his cards. Because he raised EP, him having J9dd is really pushing it. Especially after not betting on flop with a flush draw and turn with a flush to get value from A or Q. PLUS, again, while less impressive, usualy players do still tend to show even stright flushs for the fun of it. He did not show. As for bluffs, I don’t know what bluffs he could have other than just naked Jd- unsuited. And what’s more, there is a likely senerio that he would show if it was a bluff (but if he’s a pro, less likely). I really believe that he had AA- it’s makes the most sense. He raised EP, checked flop to trap with his boat, checked turn to again trap flushs and Q, and leads to river, and 3bets and goes all in. From his perspective, why would he think she has QQ when she just flats his EP open? AQ actually makes a lot of sense for her to have.
Maybe I’m crazy here, but a good reg could still “overvalue” AA here based on how it played out. He made it 2.5x from EP and she just flatted from EP/MP (this is the first deviation, as many players 3 bet QQ, so it becomes harder for him to put her on quads specifically because the hand that makes quads here is the 3rd best hand preflop and she didn’t 3 bet). Flop checks thru, a lot of people who raised KdJd pre are likely to bet their flopped royal draw and even Jd9d (much less likely for an EP open, though not completely out of range) might semi bluff a decent flush draw as a c bet, AA is more likely to check to let their opponents “catch up” or hope to get some action from the whale (the check with QQ makes sense, I see JL’s logic in betting to target an ace, but your opponent could be dead with JJ or TT and still improve to a FH or broadway if you let them). On the turn the villain has made either the nut flush or second nut flush (going with her final read) on a paired board with two opponents and he’s checking again? Again, AA makes more sense here, maybe he could bet hoping to find a slowplayed Q or a turned flush in one of his opponent’s hands, but checking to induce or let them further improve isn’t unheard of. On the river all of the betting happens, villain leads out (as he might with anything given the lack of action on previous streets), hero raises (let’s say 88 would have bet turn and take that out of her range, TT is still raising after rivering Ts full with no action on previous streets, also 3 combos of QTs and, assuming villain AA, 2 combos of AQ...all of these are more likely preflop flatting hands than QQ), villain 3 bets (AA still doing this, nut full house beats all 11 FH combos I listed above and the many hands containing the K of diamonds, which likely doesn’t read a $200 river bet as better than nut high flush), when she 4 bets you can probably drop K high flush, QT and TT combos from her range as those likely call or in some cases fold to the 3 bet. As the villain, facing a 4 bet with AA, now you are weighing one combo of QQ that beats you vs. 2 combos of AQ, all 3 hands makes sense in postflop action with similar logic to AA, let draws or underpairs try to catch up. You could call the 21k and be right most of the time against AQ or jam because QQ just doesn’t make sense with the preflop flat of your 2.5x open. Aces full isn’t a bluff here, it’s a cooler. Where this is tricky is that AQ is probably supposed to just call the 3bet on the river and not put in 1/3 of her stack with the second best FH, maybe the 4 bet angles her towards quads and destroys all of my logic, but I just think aces full is the only hand that checks both flop and turn, at some point the flush draw or made flush will want to bet to get information from his opponents and for the same reasons that he should bet KdJd, she should bet that or Jd9d by the turn when checked to twice, so he could have AA, discount the royal and straight flush from her range and believe that her range is two combos of AQ vs one combo of QQ.
Folding quads means you're not properly bankrolled and you must drop the stakes, ASAP! Folding quads my ass, are you nuts?! The very top of my range and I'm supposed to be folding. Ha! Go back down in stakes, make enough to have a legit bankroll and come back!
I wanted to say this too. But what's intriguing is, this is NOT talked about. Also no likes for this comment. It clearly shows that most of them are plain "gamblers" with no wholesome understanding of the game.
Lol she only lose to 1 combo and beat the rest . I would sell my wife to call this . If he have a StrFlush so be it . Because she check flop and turn so the raiser get cocky at the river with his AA or may be a K flush and put her on some Q or a weaker flush or a straight , end of story . Folding a quad here she might have a brain damged . I said 1 combo because KJd would value some A and Q and any flush at the turn .
Completely disagree. This is an insane fold, you have the nets up until the river, when you drop to the 2nd nuts. He has to have exactly Kd-Jd or Jd-9d. If I lose with quad queens here that's fine. I gladly hand over my money when I have this hand, there's nothing wrong with a cooler. Also I am pretty sure I win the bad beat pot. It's more realistic that he has Kd-x, completing the nut flush, since you slow played your queens, and then your quads. It's also very possible he had a pair of 8's or 10's, or maybe he slow played a hand like AA, but in all cases you're still ahead. If she is such a pro, why is she flatting pre-flop with QQ? Why is she checking the flop and the turn? Why are you raising to $21k if you have no plan to continue with a shove for $42k more? If you are that worried about him having Kd-Jd/Jd-9d then just flat call the $6,800. What does the $21k bet accomplish if you're not trying to get all your chips in?! There is no live reads to be had here, and no monsters in the closet, this is a moronic fold.
Yes, what are the odds of Quads and a Royal Flush in one hand? You can't be put of Q Q Q Q, if he has it he has it but the chances are bigger he doesn't have it so you have to go with it. Next time she gets quards will be in 5 years in a small hand with $200 in the pot, she should have taken her chance!!
@@PokerCoaching Obviously, but you have to consider how your opponent is reading your hand, and how you played each street. They're not putting you on quads. You slow played the hand up until the river that's what's important. The Reg here likely has 8-8 or 10-10, and also possible they slow played A-A, and you could make a case for AxKd.
Unless Reg is an Ultra tight player you have to call. 90% sure he had aces. Reg was thinking he was slow playing his monster. folded a bad beat hand. less than 5% chance your behind.
I like how he says if you disagree with this play you are not a good player at the start of video. I guess I suck if I think folding here means you are playing at a level you shouldn’t be in. I also fold here. Stakes are to high for me to call as well.
I don't think KJdd is checking turn after making the nuts when the flop checks through. I would be betting for value in that spot. Some people would certainly play AA or 10,10 that way. Not folding quads
825 bb is a ton. Folding QQ is definitely exploitable, but it might not be wrong. I feel like GTO becomes less precisely applicable as you become deeper and the action becomes more extreme. These parts of the game tree are so rarely touched that balance is almost a moot point because you're literally never going to be in that position again. Between stack depth, opponent strategy, and the rarity of the game tree branch, the odds of being in similar situations goes down and your "reads" become inversely more important.
There is a divergence between the headline and the detail. Looking at the Headline anyone's reaction is how can you fold Quads? Yet when you break it down it is not only possible but logical to a point even if you start from the perspective of "how can you fold quads" I would interested in a view on the absence of action on the turn not from UTG Reg. If he was running a bluff some sort of strength on the turn would be necessary to carry a bluff on the river
I highly question this fold. It's important that $740 was in the pot on the flop, no money went in on the flop or turn, and the first river bet was only $200. Let's look at how this would go down with pot-sized betting if the opponent has AA and he isn't slow playing. The betting easily could have been 100% pot with call on flop and turn, which would mean the river would start with $6,300 in it, or 1/10th the effective stacks. Then a GTO solver would have her commit her whole stack. There are three ways for him to him to have aces full but only one royal flush (J9s is way off the charts for an early position raiser by now), plus he can can have AK with the K of diamonds blocking royal flush, aces over queens, queens over aces, and the King high flush and that probably should be turned into a bluff. Which is to stay that four quads here is a good enough hand to put that much money in on the river because you would put that much money if the money was going in along the way. We can look at it several other ways as well. A tight early position raiser might not have KJs (or J9s) in their range at all, so aces full is their best possible hand. Assuming a much wider range playing with a whale on the button he might have AA-66, two suited broadways, AK & AQ, A9s-A8s, and A5s-A4s. But then he has KJs and is winning only 1.27% of the time. If you divide 100 by 1.27 and multiply by $740, that justifies $58,000 going in, which is much closer to $63,000 than to $21,000, which rounds to a call here. And is absolutely necessary if he ever finds a bluff with JJ and the jack of diamonds, or AK and the kind of diamonds, or a value push with aces full thinking he's roped a dope with QTs or lucked into her having AQ. Even if he has aces full, there are two ways she can have queens full of aces and only one way she can have quad queens! That's one rational for his pushing all-in with aces full here--if he thinks she would have raised often with QQ but call with AQ and JJ and TT. She could be bluffing the JJ and she could be behind with queens full and tens. The initial bet on the river was so small that even when she reraises, it's still effectively a three-pot sized bet when it gets back to him not a four-pot sized bet. He should call if he thinks she plays right but raise if she either calls too much or folds quads on the river, like she did.
But for sure she got herself in this position by not betting the flop and criminally not betting the turn. There were dead hands that would have paid off on draws. There were AA and TT she could have stacked. And you don't actually want to give free cards to straight flush draws and backdoor straight flush draws with extremely deep stacks and quads or a full house. That's what David Sklansky calls a mathematical catastrophe. If just a little more goes in before the river, then it makes it easy to call with quad queens and win a huge pot and have peace of mind that you protected your hand if you did lose to a straight flush. If he had KJs he would have had to pay for his lottery ticket to beat her. If he had J9s he would have folded. And if he had AA, she'd be $126,000 richer
And as a general matter, I think you can't slow play giant hands until the river and then give up on them against human beings. By slow playing twice, you have encouraged someone to believe that his aces full is good or that you are trying to bluff him and he has an even better re-bluffing hand. In my view, you four-bet QQ if you are willing to call the five-bet all-in on the odds you tricked aces full or induced a bluff, or else you do keep the pot small and call his three bet now that you've lost the nuts to two hands.
I have folded quads, by the way, once. But so much money went in before the river, his only logical hand was the big full before the top card paired. Picture a hand without a possible straight flush. He checks, I pot quads, and he calls the flop. Then he checks the turn, I pot, he repots, and I pot again. Four pot-sized bets are in. He calls. Now an ace peels on the river and he pushes all for a lot more money. That's the situation where I would fold QQ here deep stacked.
He thought he was good because he had aces full, did not put you on quads at all. These are the types of hands where if the villan has a royal flush then it's a hell of a sight seeing! Royal flush vs. Quads! DON'T YOU EVER FOLD QUADS!
I could be wrong but I think she may have had him beat. Only because she flatted the raise preflop and dude didn’t put her on QQ . If he didn’t show the Royal for a promo or j9 for badbeat jackpot then he just courageously outplayed her with the Jd 😅
There’s no way I could ever fold quads, there’s way too good a chance he could be playing AA, KdK. I mean what’s the point of hero check checking her quads if she’s just gonna fold when billions equity improves? Either bet earlier to deny equity or call the river jam that you hoping for since the flop… if you’re beat your beat Edit: in my mind, you under repped your hand for a reason, and that is to expand his range and allow him to add in a couple more light card raises and more bluffs, you can’t do that to expand his range and then fold assuming he has the absolute nuts within that range.
I feel this is not even real, she flipped 4 of a kind and then folds in the river to a minimum raise. Bullshit. I would snap call with my house on the line
Jonathan Little contradicts himself saying we only need 2 combos of bluffs to call, tells us any Jd is a good bluff of which there are more than 2 combos, but then tells us a fold is good? Then tells us our opinion is worthless.
Just because a potential bluffing hand exists does not mean it will bluff every time (or ever). It is up to you to determine the proportion of the opponent's range that are bluffs. I personally do not see too many people blasting loads of big blinds into the pot on the river in a spot where they could be against an extremely strong hand. Just to be clear, most peoples' opinions about poker strategy are worthless (because they are not strong winning players), especially in extremely abnormal situations (because they have essentially no experience in them due to a lack of volume). If you do not like honesty, feel free to go elsewhere. I will not be offended.
@@PokerCoaching It seems you do not like honesty given you've gotten a little salty being called out on your contradiction. For what it's worth I agree with you about most people's opinion being utterly worthless, the irony was in someone stating a contradictory point then saying everyone else's opinion is rubbish. If you were the villain in that spot, holding the Jd, what % of the time are you bluff shoving the river assuming you didn't have the nuts?
I mean yes it’s possible but so is getting struck by lightning 2 times in one day. I guess he could have had AA or J9 or KJ of diamonds so idk. I agree with Jonathan as I would of just called his raise instead of reraise if she was thinking that this could be a possibility. Save money while also possibly making money if she wins the hand or lose the hand either way. 🤷🏾♂️
That’s the thing-villain can easily be value betting worse hands which Quad QQ’s beat. So, take all the value hands you beat, all the flush blocker bluffs that do stupid things, and then the only 2 hands that beat you, and you can see this is a clear call (even being 825 bb’s deep!)
Yeah there’s no rational argument for a fold here. If you’re beat it’s literally a once in a lifetime experience and at least you walk away with a good story to tell.
@@JC-is1nl well when the only counter-argument people can put forth is 'quads good never fold' then I would lean more towards the side which actually had a rational argument. Maybe that's just me though
Very good analysis Little! I think the extreme stack depth is the most important factor. I have played a lot of 300-600bb deep cash game (and quite often also even deeper like 1k bb, but of course at MUCH lower stakes, not higher stakes than 5-10.....). Such stack depth does change the game A LOT vs very good players, suddenly getting 500bb all in set vs higher set isnt a cooler.... it may just be a bad play... for example. And here.... having the third nuts....Hmm I dont know. Depends mostly on if she thinks opponent is capable of turning a value hand (with the Jd) into a bluff here. And there arents that many hands with the Jd left to have....most would be suited combos opening from EP 800bb (or so) deep, AJdd, KJdd, QJdd, JTdd.., and maybe J9dd... and notice what? Only two combos possible (out of those) are the ones actually making straight flush. Other hands to turn into a bluff would AKo with Kd, and AJo (also with Jd). I just dont think those hands make it into that river line.... they are some of the best bluff catchers too...blocking aces full.... and blocking nut flush/str flush... So i think villain can call her first raise instead (depending of how much villain perceives her to be bluffing). These hands can also (and would often) go for a check-call on the river. Her decision is back on to how possible she thinks it is villain turns such a hand (or some huge value hand, like TT full) into a sick bluff. Against the likes of Dwan maybe its a pure call. I dont know. And btw I appreciate your comment about ""being qualified to comment", i experience totally unqualified individuals commenting all the time on poker.... And I DO realize that I myself am NOT qualified at all to comment on her our your level ofplay...by a far skill difference.
i gotta say, calling it the 3rd nuts is a _bit_ misleading since 3rd nuts usually means theres around 10-40 combos that beat you. Here theyre only behind 2 combos of hands. Not saying the fold was bad. I have _no_ idea idk the player this was against. I don’t think a solver would fold here but I didn’t run the sim. Just saying that “losing to 2 combos” is probably more accurate. They both mean the same thing technically but probability wise there’s a pretty significant distinction
I think part of the problem is that Kym under repped her hand. Why wouldnt you 3 bet preflop to try and gather info on what kind of hand the tight reg had? I imagine that AKo and high pockets would have a higher 4 bet frequency and most broadway hands would be flatting to see a flop. If you face a strong 4 bet, you are very likely facing AA-KK which you could flat and see flop.
ofc... :) especially KJ THE NUTS!... hopping for flushes, full house or even better, quads :))) she should have call the small amount, not raise. bad play.
I’m definitely not laying down the quads with my sole reasoning being “he probably doesn’t have it right?” But maybe I’ll think a little more after watching this video.
It all comes down to her knowing the player. There are some players who will never go all in for that much without the stone cold nuts, and they're also never bluffing with the jack of diamonds.
I folded quads once. I had 44 8-way to the flop for $50 each in a 2/5 NL game. Board came 44J and I am first to act. Checked around. Turn J. I decided to check again and it checked around. River J. I spasm a little and bet $200. Next to act insta shoves for $1500. I reverse reverse reverse mindfucked myself into a fold. He didn't show but he either had the J or more likely he was slowplaying QQ KK or AA. After some introspection, I decided it is ALWAYS better to lose with quads then risk folding quads incorrectly. Folding quads incorrectly is seppuku warranting. I'm just glad I've never owned a sword.
thats your own fault sadly for letting it get to the river. you should have Value bet from the flop bro especially if it was 8 way and $50 calls. the pot was $400. Should have bet $200+ off the flop and taken your money
Maybe I could understand if there's a one card royal/straight flush then you can justify a fold some what. But 2 cards to a royal/straight flush you have to show me and if you have it it's just your day.
@@PokerCoaching There really is no hands to get value from when she makes it 21k, AA becomes a bluff catcher and I imagine she's virtually never bluffing, combine that with the action thus far this would be a very strangely played AA by him, overlay both these things and making it 21k is a bit of a mistake (I mean this is all in hindsight, and I would have gotten stacked in this spot 90%+ of the time im sure haha)
@@maxev2533 I think a huge factor in whether we get stacked is how we are enotionally at that exact point on the river. If I were playing well and not tired or tilty, I would hope I woukd take the time to think it all through BUT we all know how its easyto get caught in the moment and boom you're out 800bb with a bluff catcher. 🤪. It's also important to note that she would be calling off not going in as the aggressor. I think it's inportant to be far more careful when calling than betting.
She let him draw cheaply to about the only dangerous board to her hand and then 4 bet the river and folded quads to a 5-bet shove? Do you make that 4-bet with the intention of folding your quads to a shove? If so, then why not just call the 3-bet.
@@greasyweasel774 She was hoping for a call from a full house, I suppose. Aces full could make the same play, if he put you on the nut flush or TT. She only loses to 2 possible straight flushes J9dd and KJdd. Both are in villiain's range, but so are all the flushes, straights, and boats. Does villain have a straight flush 1/3 of the time when he makes this bet? Does he put her on quads or aces full looking to get value from his straight flush? I think that before you 4- bet, you have to consider what you're going to do if villain shoves. If you're going to fold to two 10,000 to 1 hands, maaaybe you don't make that bet.
The argument that someone can learn something watching this is also pretty trivial. How many of those 141.000 watchers actually play 20/40/80 800bb deep. My guess is something between 0 and 1 if you miscount Kym Lim who has probably watched this analysis.
I've actually folded quad queens in a live game, but it was plo. AQdJdQAd board vs an utg nit - the guy opened one pot in 6 hours and it was full pot utg. I thought he had AAxy, and but he only showed KdTd after the hand for a Royal. Never did find out if he had quads as well.
Varied Boards, you call with quads and I have AA I’m laughing at you when you call saying WHEW why wouldn’t you re raise and you said I thought you had a royal. Lol you had quads and you thought I had a royal? Like this is absolutely mind blowing people say this. I’ve played idk how many 100,000’s of hands I’ve got 2 royal flushes and one was like 3 years ago the other on full tilt in a 200$ buy in tournament. Did get much value out of it either time. But out of those 2x times I’ve gotten it maybe seen 500 boards where a str8 flush and royal are possible! And I’ve seen all ins on those textures some not paired some paired usually the coolers are Nut flush vs full house that’s the best I’ve seen. I don’t remember seeing quads vs full house cooler and the guy said why didn’t you raise?? “ I was scared of the royal flush!! “ everyone would laugh at you,
How do you not have a read at 6800$ and you reraise to 21k$ but then magically "get a read" when villain shoves 42k$ more over the top? No way- horrible fold!
I get what you are saying, but don't fully agree. You have to see yourself through they eyes of your op too, meaning the op came over the top despite your re-re-re sooo....??
Who says she didn’t have a read at $6800? A read that someone’s strong when they 3-bet represents a much wider range than a read that someone’s strong when they 5-bet. Imagine you flop the nut flush with A5 on a JT9 board. If you get 3-bet and your opponent looks strong you’re going to be feeling pretty good. They can certainly be betting lower flushes that don’t want the naked ace to draw cheaply. But if you get 5-bet and your opponent is still looking strong you have to be pretty concerned. I mean, are they really 5 betting a K high flush?
I went into this video assuming that the answer was going to be about how bad of a fold it was, and in a way it kind of is, but only because, as you pointed out, other mistakes had happened along the way. If she calls the 6800 it's still a cool story either way. It's not often that quads gets beat,. So as bad as losing that much would be, if it happened, it's still a decent enough story to be worth it. That being said, once she'd committed 1/3 of her stack to it, I do genuinely feel like she has to call and take the bad beat. My reason for this is simple enough. Why did she re-raise to 21K if she didn't want to showdown? Did she honestly make that bet, saying to herself, Imma throw it away if he shoves? If those thoughts are going through her head, why not just call the 6800?
I have a hard time believing with the action stated the reg had a Royal. Firstly the open from EP for 200 seems like a tighter range of more premium (AA good possibility), KJ is more of a later opening and some EP opening. When the flop comes AQQ the reg is likely thinking along the same lines as Kim, I have a nutted hand and I will give the others the opportunity to bluff or catch up. With KJ of diamonds the more likely line would be to bet for many reasons, if everyone folds you pick up the pot with K high and likely the worst hand, if they call it builds a pot for the possibility of a big payout if you hit the 10d and it gives you information on the strength of the other players hands. The turn check is still both sitting nutted hoping someone bluffs or catches up enough to give some value, with the KJ of diamonds the reg would still want to get some value with a flush and bet. On the river if the reg has AA and is raised, they still have to put the opponent on either a K high flush or a smaller boat and shove for value. The fact that Kim didn't 3 bet pre flop would cause a pro to put quad Q's as a very low probability.
Omg I’ve been making this same argument against “Jonathan” who I honestly think is saying I agree with a fold so he gets comments and likes. But literally everything you have said is exactly why you can’t fold! Soooo... a couple other factors right? If there’s any chance the person has AA it’s 3 wins to 2 Losses of str8 flush and royal. She’s committed 21k, I was assuming she had 80k or something. No she had 42k total so she shoved half her stack in there hoping to get a call and got raised. She later says it was most of my bank roll, well idk wTF your doing at these stakes if that’s even close to most of your bank roll and no one has you staked or action. Honestly the more I here about this KYM gal the more she seems like she isn’t a professional or semi-pro.
Also, thanks it just feels good that someone on here has enough logic to stop go through the analysis. And understand the situation. I think Reg maybe plays AK AJ AA and 10’s like this granted this based off missing info So. If you run this in a sim, you’d get 3 combos of AA 3x 10’s (real bold 5x bet IMO) but maybe just had a bad read on KYM she did flat call check check. Thanks for pointing out this is why you don’t flat call queens here!!! Ever!!!! Because if he’s got AA your most likely going to see a 4x bet call flop the NUTZ get it in game over! Instead you played a line slow playing so he could catch up??? The. He does you get 5x bet and assume it’s the NUTZ right!!!!? He only had 2 combos of nuts and about 20 total combos full houses and semi bluffs with blockers of full houses and Str8 flushes. So run the sim you have 42k behind 43k in the middle getting 50% equity and 2 to 1 pot odds with quads. Your winning about 90% of the time. This is a dream come true. Lol I think KYM needs to play smaller stakes because if she folds quads to a 2combo hand and assumes “reg” never bluffs. He’s at least taking this line with AA no doubt. I mean the whole point of check check is disguising your hand but to be to scared to call lol that’s what it comes down to is she couldn’t afford to lose the money. Jonathan just trying to get likes I made a 5,000$ side bet over 6.5 pros say you don’t fold here. Waiting to here back from him.
Like the only line that your losing top is Jdiamond 9 diamond and got scared with 2 queens? Which doesn’t make sense cause assuming someone had the Boat on the flop or turn they would lead. So I see a check on the flop out of position. But When I hit the flush on the turn after it goes. Check check I 3x bet to 600. Whale leaves KYM stays I hit the Gin card on the river you bet out 2,100 most likely I’m not going 4x bet then 5x bet. I’m going to try to polarize my bet by shoving after you make it $6,400 because there 12k I’m the pot you have 60k behind I want a call but you seem like a player who never goes all in, especially idk why you buy in for money you can’t lose, your play doesn’t make sense neither does your fold. And I bet you show Quads to the table and everyone is mind blown Reg prolly says amazing fold I had the royal but doesn’t show. And in his head says wtf is wrong with this girl next time she 4x bets I’m shoving on her because she’s always folding!!!
The stupidest thing in all this is that she would have gotten a small fortune here with her quards. Next time she has quads it will be in a $200 pot and nobody will care and she will win. How often do we get the chance of so much money with quads? She was so lucky to get so much money in with a super rare hand and she folds. It doesn't become weaker then that. She couldn't stand the pressure and was relieved to find an excuse to fold, that's just all there is to it.
Love you Jonathan but there’s no way you fold QUADS in her position, and there’s especially no way you fold Kings I’m your spot. You’re better at poker than me there’s no doubt about that like way better, but on both of those takes youre flat out wrong.
Well, if you butcher basically every street this is what happens. I think the reg thinks she is capped at TT coz she played it so passively. He has all the nutted AQ, AA, QQ in his range when she checks twice. His AA or AQ is basically the nuts as played from his perspective.
I would rather die in my hand than fold quads idc
I'm never folding quads. Take my money.
right he could have trip AAA, what are the chances the person has a royal flush lol
Exactly... i’m never folding quads fuck me if he had something better it’s not my fault
There are 2 possible straight flushes, aces full of queens, or a bluff. Those are the only possible 4 hands for the opponent. A river bluff for $42k seems pretty unlikely at these stakes. All of the main action occurred on the river once more hands could be made. Pocket aces played this way doesn't make a lot of sense. Straight or royal flush makes most sense. I'd be calling the 6800, but not reraising with the intention of folding to a reraise.
It would really depend on the reg, but on that board I’d say they had a set of aces and thought they were up against a flush draw. But could’ve been straight flush. If she was playing within her bankroll, I’d just call and take the L if they show the straight flush and the go online and write up a bad beat story. Lol
@@sonnyvakil9193 did you just say trip AAA ??? Please don’t talk about poker ever again
That’s why I always fold queens preflop. Quads vs royals happen too often.
standard local home game on a friday night type of cooler
And when you open pre, people always put you on a nitty range and stack you with 54s.
Lol what your folding QQ preflop? Lol that’s not true at all quads vs royals do not happen to often
Do you know the odds,??! I do it’s 1 in 7,000,000 so if you have had this happen to you twice? Your talking better odds than hitting the 6$ billion dollar power ball by like 2 to 3 odds
@@colequitiquit9487 it's a joke...
Jonathan little trying to soften the field telling people folding quads is a good play.
🤫
If I have QQQQ and they aren’t good you are just gonna take my money.
No shit. Has she never heard of people attempting to bluff?
@@biggawinnacrapsa3870When have you seen a high-stakes reg 5-bet bluff on a river on a board like that. You can only be hoping someone was overvaluing aces full but even a high stakes reg wouldn't do that for a 5-bet.
@@silentbovo1 it would be a pretty sick jam with JhJx he doesn't open AJ off ep so I can't see any other bluffs
@@AH17293 AxKd?
They started the hand with nearly 1k bigs though, its a completely different game when your that deep.
Never a fold. I don't care what you say, the chances of him having AA are higher than the RF, and if I'm beat I have one of the best bad beat stories ever.
you actually want to have that bad beat coz that way youre more popular than if you win one hand and then every time you have a loseing session you can remember to everyone "i so unlucky i lost even with quads" its win win to call and even pray to lose butty!
And they could could be jamming JJ would be pretty sick
Flatted pre, then checked all the way down to the river. It's more likely that they're
bluffing with the Jd blocker than overvaluing AA with all that river action.
Bad beat jackpot.....
REMEMBER, when holding a monster you're praying for opponents with smaller monsters. Be careful what you wish for and don't psych yourself out in the process.
If I had folded quads in that spot, I would have never told anyone except if the guy showed the straight flush.
Yes, absolutely. Now everyone knows she's capable of folding quads. Bad, bad move.
If I had folded, I would have also arranged for him to show me his cards. Name your price for me to see that MONSTER hand or bluff.
@@percyblok6014 … so calling
People tend to show straight flushes and royals cuz they’re so rare. The reg probably had aq lol
@@OshawaStateOfMind well not possible considering hero has all the queens but I get your point
The guy had 7-2, he knows shes capable of folding quads
Now everyone knows she's capable of folding quads. Crazy move.
Is that a fact? I'm really asking, from listening to the story I put him on pocket deuces.
And ended up with deuces full of Queens and assumed maybe she had the nut flush with the King of diamonds.
Guarantee he was shoving with either kd Ahcs or maybe aa tt 88.
@@akafox91 there wasn't a 2 on the board.
@Klere Zooi
Awesome strategy...
Don't fold sets - Doug Polk
Fold quads - Jonathan Little
Edit: In doing more study JL is dead right on his assesment of the hand, although horribly played by the hero imo. But my comment looking back is pretty funny!
Why do you think hand values are static?
@@PokerCoaching they're not, but as a general rule you don't fold sets, yet alone quads. If there are 4 diamonds on the board or an open ended straight 10 through King, and your read is he has a diamond or an ace in each case...Sure, you can fold if you get 3 bet on the river, or jammed on the turn if you think he has it.
@@CanadianLoveKnot Well in lower stakes if you are not folding sets you are a total fish as people way way underbluff.Even live higher stakes you wont see that many river bluff raises.
@@Gos1234567 I'm not disagreeing with you - just adding - in lower stakes players also don't consider your holdings so they will often re-raise with what they think is the best hand, tptk or two pair. That is why it's not -EV (total fish move) to fold sets, unless the river completes the obvious hands that beat a set.
@@CanadianLoveKnot I'm pretty sure Doug Polk means, don't fold sets for 100bb, not 800 fkn bb buddy !
I can fold QQ on a AAAQQ board
I mean you’re definitely right it’s gotta depend on the line cause I bet I could get you to fold to my KK, representing A,K so yeah I would mix in some folds and some calls tho so I’m not getting exploited
Easy laydown❤️
🤣🤣🤣
You fold?? It’s a cash game. There’s no badbeat jackpot at your casino? :p
you definitely get a jackpot if you don't fold - at most of the casinos. so, don't fold
You can't fold because he can easily have AA and think it's unbeatable. If he backed into a str8 flush so be it. You shouldn't play those stakes if you're afraid to call with quads.
100% agreed with you man. If you sticking 21k in already there’s no reason to not stick a bit more. You should have already made your decision of all in before you raising at those stakes game. If you try to save money, that just mean the stakes too high for you. Unless she can see through opponents cards to make that fold.
Is he (Reg) checking flop and turn with AA? No way, IMHO. I agree with John that I don't play at level to have a relevant opinion, BUT, I am surprised at the checked Turn...she let him get there. Make the draws pay to see the River. I certainly AM NOT good enough to make that fold, she is!
I don't think you're ev is very good, using that logic
@@saladking2370 Wrong, this is a once in a lifetime situation. You can't make regular rules about it. If you are fine with playing stakes this high then how can you be this scared to call a min raise with quads?
I agree
In no universe am I folding quads. If I lose, I lose.
I'd rather go broke than fold quads, literally.
In this situation I agree with you
I have a hard time folding a set - quads - stack me please. That hand deserves a showdown.
Quads definitely, a set is very foldable though
I'd rather lose with quads, than to fold lol straight up
I think one of the more important lessons here is to not have over 800 BB’s deep if you are uncomfortable loosing that amount.
Spot on! Terrible bankroll management
Sir you hit the nail on the head, you can see the ego with professional poker players playing at lower levels shows that your weak she's playing over her head simple as that & that affects your analysis when your in the hand.
Not really cause I doubt she sat with 800bb, she probably stacked smone a couple of times, and you can't leave the table especially if it's the whale who also has a 800bb stack
Being uncomfortable losing is always something that a winning player is going to do. Your comment makes no sense. Being so deep stacked means you get more info. The idea is that this extra info creates a very rare betting pattern that justifies assuming this is the very improbably case where you are up against a straight flush with quads.
It would be wrong for me to fold in this spot as it would be a jackpot hand, and in my local £1/£1 game at the movement the quad Qs is worth 40,000 bb, I would call praying I was beat hahaha
This actually happened to me a couple years ago at a Station Casino poker room in LV. I was at my regular $2/4 limit holdem game when I flopped a set of jacks. The flop came Kc 10c Jd and all players checked before I made the minimum $2 bet. The SB called and everyone else folded. The turn card was Jc; the SB bet the $4 minimum and the board now had Jd Jc Kc 10c. There was a progressive bad beat jackpot which was worth $175k with quad 8s to qualify. The table rules allowed for no limit play when playing heads up; so I was all in before the river card. At showdown the SB turned over a 9-k straight flush to beat my quad jacks. I got 50% as the "lucky" loser; the winner got 15% and the rest was divided among all players seated at any Station Casino poker room when the bad beat jackpot was hit.
Ofc its wrong to fold quads, it always is.
He brought out the digital calculator to punch out odds, and I'm like, Fool, I'm NEVER, EVER, EVER going to fold Quads! Regardless of what your poker, geeky analysis says. Take my money if you got better Quads, a Straight Flush, or better a Royal Flush. I can live with that.
#math
@@PokerCoaching based
There is not enough information to make a conclusion about Kym's play. The information that Jonathan either didn't know about or decided not to share was that later in Kym's tweets she states that she plays her own bank only and does not play cash games staked. The tone of her tweet also left me thinking that she was reluctant to put 42K more in the pot because of her bank. The other vital information that we don't know is, who is the reg that got her to fold? Does she know the reg very well? Has she played these stakes with the reg before? Is she almost certain to know that this particular reg is only going to shove with the nuts? Or is this reg capable of shoving without the nuts? The most important information of all that we don't know about the reg is, what is his bank? Is he a reg and a multi millionaire? Billionaire? Is the reg staked? Or is he similar to Kym, a grinder playing too deep in to his bank. I don't really have a problem with her folding just out of bankroll considerations. It's one hand of poker that got expensive. She put herself in to the position of bankroll being a deciding factor. I'm shocked that a gambler would do this to themselves :-) So perhaps Kym was being undisciplined with her bankroll prior to this hand but decided to reign it in and just cut her loss. I don't think a bankroll fold would mean she can be bluffed in the future more easily or more often.
Were people having a sandwich and playing all loosey goosey?
winner
you have to know that everything on the tables conveys information
Asking the real questions. That's GTO thinking
I see what I did there
Worst case, you folded quads to a *maybe* full house w (MAYBE!)/Aces full. If you can fold quads here, best to take up bingo instead....
I'm never folding quads, but I'm also a low stakes grinder and that thought process is probably a part of the reason why lol.
Even though this is hypothetical, Daniel Negreneau still knows what villain has.
If you play poker and fold quad. Just stop play poker and try to play badminton.
😂😂😂
Badminton is much better though
Why is villain check KJdd on that flop multi way? Isn't this a bet 100? He has the range advantage and doesn't have a made hand. Then to check the turn when he makes the flush on a board where is hand is vulnerable to a lot of rivers And he could get a ton of value from all A x and Q x hands? I see this line being way more consistent with AA as opposed to a rivered Royal. I actually think J9dd is more likely to be present here than KJdd.
Sounds like her opponent knew Kim well, too
Not rly. Cuz there's no way in hell they put her on quads and tried to bluff her off.
One time I folded quads and then I woke up and realized I peed in my bed.
It was a nightmare lol
@@royalflush4567 There is an actual board where i would fold quads which is 2d 2h 3d 4d 5d and not the one that the lady showed in this video
Imagine checking your quads twice.
Ikr
I mean, I’ve had quads once in live poker (aces) against an OMC. I checked it twice because I could tell he just didn’t have anything. Looking back on it, I’d probably just bet the turn, but I doubt he’d have called more than 20% of the time, if that.
@@nate296 checking once is fine. If you're going to fold to a scarecard on the river you have to barrel turn
Patrick Antonius checked his quads 3 times against Tony G
@@uncle_durrr you have no clue.
Just a few days ago in an $11 dollar tournament, I led out on a river after I made a small flush on a 3 heart board (I can provide more context if needed), only to get raised all in afterward. I asked if he was capable of doing this with the naked Ace of hearts, then tanked called, and he showed up with Ah5x as a bluff.
Here's the message, there are sickos at all levels of poker.
No one cares about your eleven dollar hero calls lol.
This is your best video in a long time. Your analysis is stellar and there are also many truths you mention which could be applied to both poker and life in general. Thank you for all the content you create.
Thanks!
Don't the two assumptions neccessary for this fold sort of work against each other? We're saying Villain is so good he never overvalues AA but he's not good enough to have the requisite one bluff that would justify our making the call.
Also, if I made a fold like this I'm not telling anybody. Isn't it just going to be a nightmare when the good players you have to play against now know you can be bullied off quads with enough pressure?
Baller Larva your right, that was a very slippery slop argument
How many times is there a high 3 cards straight flush on the board?
Can't fold once you have committed that much with quads
Could be value pushing aq and aa easily
@@billjones2472 Pretty sure Villain can't have AQ here man.
Think it's still a call, maybe you find folds in 2-5 games against regs who would underbluff this spot to this point where it doesn't make up for the times they overplay AA. But unless this player was particularly nitty I think the amount of times they'll bluff in this spot (and it doesn't have to be that often) with the Jd justifies a call in a higher stakes game. The other thing about QQ is that it doesn't block AA - which can overplay occasionally and AJo with the Jd, which is the most plausible bluff.
I do agree that this is a highly read-dependent spot, though, but I think it's important to note (and I think you did a decent job in the video of noting) that we shouldn't be making these kinds of folds against really good, aggressive players.
With AxJd as a bluff you are blocking both her possible AA and AQ, so what are you hoping to make her fold? Quads? You realize that's just 1 combo, right? I'm not sure there is a player in the world able to run a bluff like that, it would also be highly -EV.
Reg has pocket AA and flopped a boat. Checked in first position, hoping opponent had a Q, possibly another fullhouse, or a Flush.
If you are going to fold quads, just give me your money and save the trip 😉
I think JdJx is a possibility as well which is why I wouldn't have folded. Does he open j9dd ep if not he has one value combo and 1 bluff combo but he could have more than 1 bluff combo.... Either way the odds make it a call.
90% sure it was AA, 5% JJ with jd, and 5% TT
folding quads here makes no sense. Even though there are 2 possible stright flush, it’s actually just 1 because you need jd for both. So you are actually folding the effective second nuts.
Is KJ or J9 really gonna open 200 in a 20/40 or is it more likely for AA to do it and she just flated with QQ?
If she put her opponent on as weak as KJ or J9 suited preflop, why didn’t she reraise then preflop? If she was afraid of the straight flush draw on the flop, then why didn’t she bet her quads, knowing someone can’t fold? Why does she just “all of a sudden” think he is good for quads? Why not raise a lesser amount on the river if you intend to fold to a reraise? Would you not raise less so that the reraise would be cheaper? With all of these illogical actions, how can we trust that her logic on the river is solid judgement? She’s playing way out of her limit. That’s all.
none of that makes any sense. her decision(s) is informed by the actions on the river, not fleeting pre/post flop reads
I agree
I agree she feigned weakness then massive strength with no real info but the river.
Yea i feel like every street in this hand was played absolutely horribly and she still somehow managed to get max value on the river and didnt take it. This may be the single worst played poker hand in history besides me bluffing 2/7 off for 3 streets every time its dealt at my home game
8s, 10s, As, AKd, JJd, all could have reasonably been played exactly like this. J9dd seems like an odd open raise in EP, so KJdd is really the only hand you absolutely have to worry about (also, why you shouldn't just check the flop when there is an A on the board), that's 23 hands I beat and 1 I don't. If I'm not going to call, then I'm certainly not 4-betting - so folding. If I get stacked with QQQQ, then I guess I'm going to go get a massage, enjoy a nice glass of scotch, take in a show, and probably not play for a couple days.
The only hands that would 3x 5B jam on the R for value is AA's and even that would be very thin. J9dd is a completely normal open from EP aswell. It definitely depends on the player but folding here is not terrible and her reasoning makes sense.
I truly believe reg would also slow play aces this way and just based on math, it's 3x more likely he has aces than a royal.
Also 10s probably
The fact that you think there are 3x more combos of aces than straight flushes here proves Little’s point...
@@daneleblanc4636 Little was advising folding quads. My point was that villain could take this line with aces and hence hero should call quads because you beat some of the value shoving range.
Just ran this in solver, which recommends raising QQ pre at a 100% frequency at these stack depths. Checking through flop and turn is ok, but we do want to mix in bets at some frequency. River raise to $21k is far too large, solver likes $12k. Once villain re-jams, solver has this at a 100% call, with EV(call) being significantly higher than EV(fold).
Wouldn't he call the 21k or fold in that case?
for some reason I would've loved it if in this Spot one Player has the Jd and the other one plays Kd9d and both make the str8 flush impossible and the one who jams first wins the pot, lol
This video really put me in my place and I have to take that and learn from it of I want to be a better poker player and a better person for that matter. I was one of her critics, spewing my opinion on the matter as if I’ve ever had to make a decision for $42k in a poker game. That’s 2 years worth of my rent, for Christ’s sake.
Thank you, Jonathan Little for posting this video. Sometimes we need to be put in our place and you’ve done that. I’m regretful and embarrassed of what I’ve said. I’m a low stakes grinder and I have no right to criticize the decision that someone like her makes. She’s an amazing poker player and if I want to ever have a shot to be as good as her, I need moments like this to humble me and keep my goddamned ego in check. Thanks again, Man.
Bro if you're thinking about rent money, then you shouldn't be playing at these stakes.
Danny M Dude literally said he’s a low stakes grinder... sooo... he obviously doesn’t play at those stakes 🙄
Danny M I think you may have misread. The point I’m making is that I shouldn’t be offering my critique on someone who is playing stakes so high that the call is 42k when 42k is two years worth of rent for me. My bankroll can barely support 5/10 NL. I usually only play 1/2 NL and step up to 5/10 NL when I can, which isn’t often.
Michael Wilson hello sir, have you told her that youre sorry/were too ’fast’ ?
Or should her twitter feed be filled with all these two-cents comments ?
Michael Wilson i read your comment correctly. Stop gambling. If you’re worried about losing money, regardless if it’s 1/2 or 100/200 big cash games, then you shouldn’t play at all.
I completely agree with your analysis. She definetly should have bet at least the turn. This is one of the spots where you just have to fold against a tight player and have to call against an aggressive player on the river. There is nothing else to say about that hand. She could have played the flop and the turn better, but the river was totally fine if she thinks her opponent isnt bluffing.
Where can I find the video plz
No video, sorry.
I think the challenge for most lower stakes players is they just can’t imagine a game where the reg will never be overvaluing AA /TT here.
Your point about realizing where you have no useful knowledge is well taken, but I’m going to keep tweeting about sports :)
It's true that it may be the right fold, but the EP has AA and since he's a whale opening up front how can you fold when he might be thinking she can have AQ? By blocking AQ that seems quite possible. If she said she folded to someone good at hand reading that seems like a different story, but that is not the case. If she says nit of all nits then it's a different story. Am I wrong?
@@johnthepalm EP and the whale are not the same person.
If that’s true than why make the video? Comical discussion here. Waste of my time here
Shoving AA is not over valuing in this situation. You can beat all the full houses in which there are 12 combos (i have discounted Q8) and you are only losing to three combos of straight flushes and quads. So yeah.
@@GHE-bv1pf um only 2 straight flushes possible. KJ d and J9 d
So do we know what the reg had??
No.
Here's my line of thought.
- The Reg cannot have AA because if he did, he would unblock the nuts (i.e. KdJd) plus 2 other better hands than AA (Jd9d and QQ), all of which Kym could have, so he would be crazy to 5-bet shove with the 4th best hand
- This obviously rules out the Reg having any Full Houses
- So then, the Reg must have Jd and the question becomes what his other card is
- In other words, the crucial question is HOW WIDE HE IS OPENING FROM EARLY POSITION
- Given that they are playing super deep with hundreds of blinds, I believe the Reg could be opening with the following hands (that contain Jd): AxJd (4 combos), KxJd (4 combos), pocket JxJd (3 combos) and Jd9d (1 combo) = 12 COMBOS in total
- Kym loses to 2 combos (KdJd and Jd9d) and beats 10 combos of bluff
- Mathematically, this means that Kym should call if she believes she's getting at least 12 to 10 pot odds (so only 1.2 to 1!)
- Since she's actually getting more than 2:1, this implies a CLEAR CALL
- Also, note that even if we assign the Reg a tighter opening range from EP and assume he only opens suited AdJd, suited KdJd and pocket JxJd (and NOT Jd9d), this is 5 combos but now Kym only loses to 1 combo (KdJd) and beats 4 combos of bluff, thereby still needing only 1.2 to 1 to call --> STILL A CALL
I like your logic here and of course, you have the right conclusion which is a call based on GTO, however, you must also understand most players will not be thinking this deep at that moment, so one can't "obviously" rule out the reg having a full house. Have you played in of the run of the mill card rooms?
@@ttouran When was the last time you saw a 5-bet river bluff 800bbs deep.
@@ionalien I have seen it, actually won the pot myself because I had set of queens. The guy was drunk. Go play at Oaks in Oakland. what you describe won't be so out of ordinary.
@@ionalien Literally every day at 1/2 2/5 and 5/10.
Easiest way to look at this is to simplify the matter. Had the villian had KJdd, he would 100% show the table because everyone, even pros, show a royal flush just for the impact. He did not show his cards.
Because he raised EP, him having J9dd is really pushing it. Especially after not betting on flop with a flush draw and turn with a flush to get value from A or Q. PLUS, again, while less impressive, usualy players do still tend to show even stright flushs for the fun of it. He did not show.
As for bluffs, I don’t know what bluffs he could have other than just naked Jd- unsuited. And what’s more, there is a likely senerio that he would show if it was a bluff (but if he’s a pro, less likely).
I really believe that he had AA- it’s makes the most sense. He raised EP, checked flop to trap with his boat, checked turn to again trap flushs and Q, and leads to river, and 3bets and goes all in. From his perspective, why would he think she has QQ when she just flats his EP open? AQ actually makes a lot of sense for her to have.
AA plays the exact same way here enough of the time that calling the river shove is +EV.
There's essentially never a time to fold quads.
If he was a good reg, he could have had AJ with a Jd and turned his hand into a bluff?
For sure!
Maybe I’m crazy here, but a good reg could still “overvalue” AA here based on how it played out. He made it 2.5x from EP and she just flatted from EP/MP (this is the first deviation, as many players 3 bet QQ, so it becomes harder for him to put her on quads specifically because the hand that makes quads here is the 3rd best hand preflop and she didn’t 3 bet). Flop checks thru, a lot of people who raised KdJd pre are likely to bet their flopped royal draw and even Jd9d (much less likely for an EP open, though not completely out of range) might semi bluff a decent flush draw as a c bet, AA is more likely to check to let their opponents “catch up” or hope to get some action from the whale (the check with QQ makes sense, I see JL’s logic in betting to target an ace, but your opponent could be dead with JJ or TT and still improve to a FH or broadway if you let them). On the turn the villain has made either the nut flush or second nut flush (going with her final read) on a paired board with two opponents and he’s checking again? Again, AA makes more sense here, maybe he could bet hoping to find a slowplayed Q or a turned flush in one of his opponent’s hands, but checking to induce or let them further improve isn’t unheard of. On the river all of the betting happens, villain leads out (as he might with anything given the lack of action on previous streets), hero raises (let’s say 88 would have bet turn and take that out of her range, TT is still raising after rivering Ts full with no action on previous streets, also 3 combos of QTs and, assuming villain AA, 2 combos of AQ...all of these are more likely preflop flatting hands than QQ), villain 3 bets (AA still doing this, nut full house beats all 11 FH combos I listed above and the many hands containing the K of diamonds, which likely doesn’t read a $200 river bet as better than nut high flush), when she 4 bets you can probably drop K high flush, QT and TT combos from her range as those likely call or in some cases fold to the 3 bet. As the villain, facing a 4 bet with AA, now you are weighing one combo of QQ that beats you vs. 2 combos of AQ, all 3 hands makes sense in postflop action with similar logic to AA, let draws or underpairs try to catch up. You could call the 21k and be right most of the time against AQ or jam because QQ just doesn’t make sense with the preflop flat of your 2.5x open. Aces full isn’t a bluff here, it’s a cooler. Where this is tricky is that AQ is probably supposed to just call the 3bet on the river and not put in 1/3 of her stack with the second best FH, maybe the 4 bet angles her towards quads and destroys all of my logic, but I just think aces full is the only hand that checks both flop and turn, at some point the flush draw or made flush will want to bet to get information from his opponents and for the same reasons that he should bet KdJd, she should bet that or Jd9d by the turn when checked to twice, so he could have AA, discount the royal and straight flush from her range and believe that her range is two combos of AQ vs one combo of QQ.
this!
Folding quads means you're not properly bankrolled and you must drop the stakes, ASAP! Folding quads my ass, are you nuts?! The very top of my range and I'm supposed to be folding. Ha! Go back down in stakes, make enough to have a legit bankroll and come back!
I wanted to say this too. But what's intriguing is, this is NOT talked about. Also no likes for this comment.
It clearly shows that most of them are plain "gamblers" with no wholesome understanding of the game.
Lol she only lose to 1 combo and beat the rest . I would sell my wife to call this . If he have a StrFlush so be it . Because she check flop and turn so the raiser get cocky at the river with his AA or may be a K flush and put her on some Q or a weaker flush or a straight , end of story . Folding a quad here she might have a brain damged . I said 1 combo because KJd would value some A and Q and any flush at the turn .
Does anyone know what the reg actually had? I would love to see this validated.
Nope. That is why poker is a fun game!
If they have more than one combination of bluffs, we should call* [around 9:18]
Completely disagree. This is an insane fold, you have the nets up until the river, when you drop to the 2nd nuts. He has to have exactly Kd-Jd or Jd-9d. If I lose with quad queens here that's fine. I gladly hand over my money when I have this hand, there's nothing wrong with a cooler. Also I am pretty sure I win the bad beat pot. It's more realistic that he has Kd-x, completing the nut flush, since you slow played your queens, and then your quads. It's also very possible he had a pair of 8's or 10's, or maybe he slow played a hand like AA, but in all cases you're still ahead. If she is such a pro, why is she flatting pre-flop with QQ? Why is she checking the flop and the turn? Why are you raising to $21k if you have no plan to continue with a shove for $42k more? If you are that worried about him having Kd-Jd/Jd-9d then just flat call the $6,800. What does the $21k bet accomplish if you're not trying to get all your chips in?! There is no live reads to be had here, and no monsters in the closet, this is a moronic fold.
You also lose to J9dd
@@charlieivey175 yes, thanks! 2 possible combos. Hardly a reason to fold quads.
Yes, what are the odds of Quads and a Royal Flush in one hand? You can't be put of Q Q Q Q, if he has it he has it but the chances are bigger he doesn't have it so you have to go with it. Next time she gets quards will be in 5 years in a small hand with $200 in the pot, she should have taken her chance!!
Your flopped hand does not matter too much on the river.
@@PokerCoaching Obviously, but you have to consider how your opponent is reading your hand, and how you played each street. They're not putting you on quads. You slow played the hand up until the river that's what's important. The Reg here likely has 8-8 or 10-10, and also possible they slow played A-A, and you could make a case for AxKd.
Unless Reg is an Ultra tight player you have to call. 90% sure he had aces. Reg was thinking he was slow playing his monster. folded a bad beat hand. less than 5% chance your behind.
I like how he says if you disagree with this play you are not a good player at the start of video. I guess I suck if I think folding here means you are playing at a level you shouldn’t be in. I also fold here. Stakes are to high for me to call as well.
I don't think KJdd is checking turn after making the nuts when the flop checks through. I would be betting for value in that spot. Some people would certainly play AA or 10,10 that way. Not folding quads
825 bb is a ton. Folding QQ is definitely exploitable, but it might not be wrong. I feel like GTO becomes less precisely applicable as you become deeper and the action becomes more extreme. These parts of the game tree are so rarely touched that balance is almost a moot point because you're literally never going to be in that position again. Between stack depth, opponent strategy, and the rarity of the game tree branch, the odds of being in similar situations goes down and your "reads" become inversely more important.
There is a divergence between the headline and the detail. Looking at the Headline anyone's reaction is how can you fold Quads? Yet when you break it down it is not only possible but logical to a point even if you start from the perspective of "how can you fold quads"
I would interested in a view on the absence of action on the turn not from UTG Reg. If he was running a bluff some sort of strength on the turn would be necessary to carry a bluff on the river
I highly question this fold. It's important that $740 was in the pot on the flop, no money went in on the flop or turn, and the first river bet was only $200. Let's look at how this would go down with pot-sized betting if the opponent has AA and he isn't slow playing. The betting easily could have been 100% pot with call on flop and turn, which would mean the river would start with $6,300 in it, or 1/10th the effective stacks. Then a GTO solver would have her commit her whole stack. There are three ways for him to him to have aces full but only one royal flush (J9s is way off the charts for an early position raiser by now), plus he can can have AK with the K of diamonds blocking royal flush, aces over queens, queens over aces, and the King high flush and that probably should be turned into a bluff. Which is to stay that four quads here is a good enough hand to put that much money in on the river because you would put that much money if the money was going in along the way.
We can look at it several other ways as well. A tight early position raiser might not have KJs (or J9s) in their range at all, so aces full is their best possible hand. Assuming a much wider range playing with a whale on the button he might have AA-66, two suited broadways, AK & AQ, A9s-A8s, and A5s-A4s. But then he has KJs and is winning only 1.27% of the time. If you divide 100 by 1.27 and multiply by $740, that justifies $58,000 going in, which is much closer to $63,000 than to $21,000, which rounds to a call here. And is absolutely necessary if he ever finds a bluff with JJ and the jack of diamonds, or AK and the kind of diamonds, or a value push with aces full thinking he's roped a dope with QTs or lucked into her having AQ. Even if he has aces full, there are two ways she can have queens full of aces and only one way she can have quad queens! That's one rational for his pushing all-in with aces full here--if he thinks she would have raised often with QQ but call with AQ and JJ and TT. She could be bluffing the JJ and she could be behind with queens full and tens. The initial bet on the river was so small that even when she reraises, it's still effectively a three-pot sized bet when it gets back to him not a four-pot sized bet. He should call if he thinks she plays right but raise if she either calls too much or folds quads on the river, like she did.
But for sure she got herself in this position by not betting the flop and criminally not betting the turn. There were dead hands that would have paid off on draws. There were AA and TT she could have stacked. And you don't actually want to give free cards to straight flush draws and backdoor straight flush draws with extremely deep stacks and quads or a full house. That's what David Sklansky calls a mathematical catastrophe. If just a little more goes in before the river, then it makes it easy to call with quad queens and win a huge pot and have peace of mind that you protected your hand if you did lose to a straight flush. If he had KJs he would have had to pay for his lottery ticket to beat her. If he had J9s he would have folded. And if he had AA, she'd be $126,000 richer
And as a general matter, I think you can't slow play giant hands until the river and then give up on them against human beings. By slow playing twice, you have encouraged someone to believe that his aces full is good or that you are trying to bluff him and he has an even better re-bluffing hand. In my view, you four-bet QQ if you are willing to call the five-bet all-in on the odds you tricked aces full or induced a bluff, or else you do keep the pot small and call his three bet now that you've lost the nuts to two hands.
I have folded quads, by the way, once. But so much money went in before the river, his only logical hand was the big full before the top card paired. Picture a hand without a possible straight flush. He checks, I pot quads, and he calls the flop. Then he checks the turn, I pot, he repots, and I pot again. Four pot-sized bets are in. He calls. Now an ace peels on the river and he pushes all for a lot more money. That's the situation where I would fold QQ here deep stacked.
I should say it was PLO and so you have to use both cards in your hand.
He thought he was good because he had aces full, did not put you on quads at all. These are the types of hands where if the villan has a royal flush then it's a hell of a sight seeing! Royal flush vs. Quads! DON'T YOU EVER FOLD QUADS!
3 combos of AA, 2 of SF. With that info alone it has to be a call
Exactly. There are exactly two hands that beat you and with two streets checked, villain could easily have 88 or TT also.
I could be wrong but I think she may have had him beat. Only because she flatted the raise preflop and dude didn’t put her on QQ . If he didn’t show the Royal for a promo or j9 for badbeat jackpot then he just courageously outplayed her with the Jd 😅
There’s no way I could ever fold quads, there’s way too good a chance he could be playing AA, KdK. I mean what’s the point of hero check checking her quads if she’s just gonna fold when billions equity improves? Either bet earlier to deny equity or call the river jam that you hoping for since the flop… if you’re beat your beat
Edit: in my mind, you under repped your hand for a reason, and that is to expand his range and allow him to add in a couple more light card raises and more bluffs, you can’t do that to expand his range and then fold assuming he has the absolute nuts within that range.
I feel this is not even real, she flipped 4 of a kind and then folds in the river to a minimum raise. Bullshit. I would snap call with my house on the line
Folding your KK preflop to that action is light years apart from the quad QQ hand.
Jonathan Little contradicts himself saying we only need 2 combos of bluffs to call, tells us any Jd is a good bluff of which there are more than 2 combos, but then tells us a fold is good? Then tells us our opinion is worthless.
Just because a potential bluffing hand exists does not mean it will bluff every time (or ever). It is up to you to determine the proportion of the opponent's range that are bluffs. I personally do not see too many people blasting loads of big blinds into the pot on the river in a spot where they could be against an extremely strong hand.
Just to be clear, most peoples' opinions about poker strategy are worthless (because they are not strong winning players), especially in extremely abnormal situations (because they have essentially no experience in them due to a lack of volume).
If you do not like honesty, feel free to go elsewhere. I will not be offended.
@@PokerCoaching It seems you do not like honesty given you've gotten a little salty being called out on your contradiction. For what it's worth I agree with you about most people's opinion being utterly worthless, the irony was in someone stating a contradictory point then saying everyone else's opinion is rubbish.
If you were the villain in that spot, holding the Jd, what % of the time are you bluff shoving the river assuming you didn't have the nuts?
I make decent income, but i would have an aneurysm playing at a 50% of these stakes
I mean yes it’s possible but so is getting struck by lightning 2 times in one day. I guess he could have had AA or J9 or KJ of diamonds so idk. I agree with Jonathan as I would of just called his raise instead of reraise if she was thinking that this could be a possibility. Save money while also possibly making money if she wins the hand or lose the hand either way. 🤷🏾♂️
That’s the thing-villain can easily be value betting worse hands which Quad QQ’s beat. So, take all the value hands you beat, all the flush blocker bluffs that do stupid things, and then the only 2 hands that beat you, and you can see this is a clear call (even being 825 bb’s deep!)
Yeah there’s no rational argument for a fold here. If you’re beat it’s literally a once in a lifetime experience and at least you walk away with a good story to tell.
@@seblahideh Jonathan Little put forth a rational argument to fold in the video, you just dont wanna listen cause "quads good hand"
@@lircox just because he put forth a rational argument, doesn't mean its right!
@@JC-is1nl well when the only counter-argument people can put forth is 'quads good never fold' then I would lean more towards the side which actually had a rational argument. Maybe that's just me though
9:50 dude gets someone drilling over his head while filming *gets happy about being able to edit that out, great energy
Reg could play with 5 hole cards and I'm still not folding QQQQ
hand not even recorded. for all we know she tried to 5bet bluff with Ax and got jammed on and claimed she folded quads on twitter
This makes total sense
Very good analysis Little! I think the extreme stack depth is the most important factor. I have played a lot of 300-600bb deep cash game (and quite often also even deeper like 1k bb, but of course at MUCH lower stakes, not higher stakes than 5-10.....). Such stack depth does change the game A LOT vs very good players, suddenly getting 500bb all in set vs higher set isnt a cooler.... it may just be a bad play... for example. And here.... having the third nuts....Hmm I dont know. Depends mostly on if she thinks opponent is capable of turning a value hand (with the Jd) into a bluff here. And there arents that many hands with the Jd left to have....most would be suited combos opening from EP 800bb (or so) deep, AJdd, KJdd, QJdd, JTdd.., and maybe J9dd... and notice what? Only two combos possible (out of those) are the ones actually making straight flush. Other hands to turn into a bluff would AKo with Kd, and AJo (also with Jd). I just dont think those hands make it into that river line.... they are some of the best bluff catchers too...blocking aces full.... and blocking nut flush/str flush... So i think villain can call her first raise instead (depending of how much villain perceives her to be bluffing). These hands can also (and would often) go for a check-call on the river.
Her decision is back on to how possible she thinks it is villain turns such a hand (or some huge value hand, like TT full) into a sick bluff. Against the likes of Dwan maybe its a pure call. I dont know.
And btw I appreciate your comment about ""being qualified to comment", i experience totally unqualified individuals commenting all the time on poker.... And I DO realize that I myself am NOT qualified at all to comment on her our your level ofplay...by a far skill difference.
i gotta say, calling it the 3rd nuts is a _bit_ misleading since 3rd nuts usually means theres around 10-40 combos that beat you. Here theyre only behind 2 combos of hands. Not saying the fold was bad. I have _no_ idea idk the player this was against. I don’t think a solver would fold here but I didn’t run the sim. Just saying that “losing to 2 combos” is probably more accurate. They both mean the same thing technically but probability wise there’s a pretty significant distinction
I think part of the problem is that Kym under repped her hand. Why wouldnt you 3 bet preflop to try and gather info on what kind of hand the tight reg had? I imagine that AKo and high pockets would have a higher 4 bet frequency and most broadway hands would be flatting to see a flop. If you face a strong 4 bet, you are very likely facing AA-KK which you could flat and see flop.
does KJ diamonds or J9 diamonds check turn often after making flush? especially after opening in ep?
That's a good point.
ofc... :) especially KJ THE NUTS!... hopping for flushes, full house or even better, quads :))) she should have call the small amount, not raise. bad play.
I’m definitely not laying down the quads with my sole reasoning being “he probably doesn’t have it right?” But maybe I’ll think a little more after watching this video.
It all comes down to her knowing the player. There are some players who will never go all in for that much without the stone cold nuts, and they're also never bluffing with the jack of diamonds.
I folded quads once. I had 44 8-way to the flop for $50 each in a 2/5 NL game. Board came 44J and I am first to act. Checked around. Turn J. I decided to check again and it checked around. River J. I spasm a little and bet $200. Next to act insta shoves for $1500. I reverse reverse reverse mindfucked myself into a fold. He didn't show but he either had the J or more likely he was slowplaying QQ KK or AA. After some introspection, I decided it is ALWAYS better to lose with quads then risk folding quads incorrectly. Folding quads incorrectly is seppuku warranting. I'm just glad I've never owned a sword.
thats your own fault sadly for letting it get to the river. you should have Value bet from the flop bro especially if it was 8 way and $50 calls. the pot was $400. Should have bet $200+ off the flop and taken your money
Maybe I could understand if there's a one card royal/straight flush then you can justify a fold some what. But 2 cards to a royal/straight flush you have to show me and if you have it it's just your day.
Never ever folding quads here. Losing play in the long run.
Sorry Jonathan but I will pay you off any day, all day with quads!! I'm calling 100% of the time!
Never ever a fold simple as that. The chances the other person has a straight flush playing it that exact way is unfathomable.
What are the odds of making the right call for folding with quads? Play the odds you over analyzing fools.
Precisely
Making the big lay-down could be a sign of discipline, or it just might mean you're playing cards in the wrong room.
If you're going to fold don't make it 21k on the river. Some "regs" could do this with aces...
A good player in a $20/$40/$80 game will not do this with aces though.
thankfully you don't have to be a good player to be a reg :)
@@pokerbruh Indeed!
@@PokerCoaching There really is no hands to get value from when she makes it 21k, AA becomes a bluff catcher and I imagine she's virtually never bluffing, combine that with the action thus far this would be a very strangely played AA by him, overlay both these things and making it 21k is a bit of a mistake (I mean this is all in hindsight, and I would have gotten stacked in this spot 90%+ of the time im sure haha)
@@maxev2533 I think a huge factor in whether we get stacked is how we are enotionally at that exact point on the river. If I were playing well and not tired or tilty, I would hope I woukd take the time to think it all through BUT we all know how its easyto get caught in the moment and boom you're out 800bb with a bluff catcher. 🤪. It's also important to note that she would be calling off not going in as the aggressor. I think it's inportant to be far more careful when calling than betting.
What a nit... if you gonna bet 21k why fold the 42k more ? You literally are asking for it.
She let him draw cheaply to about the only dangerous board to her hand and then 4 bet the river and folded quads to a 5-bet shove?
Do you make that 4-bet with the intention of folding your quads to a shove? If so, then why not just call the 3-bet.
Kyle Looper i think so too. She let him drew cheaply.
Exactly. What does she hope to happen once she raises to 21k?
A fold??
No, that's the type of bet used to induce a shove.
Kym messed up, bottom line.
@@greasyweasel774 She was hoping for a call from a full house, I suppose. Aces full could make the same play, if he put you on the nut flush or TT.
She only loses to 2 possible straight flushes J9dd and KJdd. Both are in villiain's range, but so are all the flushes, straights, and boats. Does villain have a straight flush 1/3 of the time when he makes this bet? Does he put her on quads or aces full looking to get value from his straight flush?
I think that before you 4- bet, you have to consider what you're going to do if villain shoves. If you're going to fold to two 10,000 to 1 hands, maaaybe you don't make that bet.
If I knew my opponent folded quads I would play accordingly. I might fold quads if nobody finds out.
Wonder how many more tough spots for big bucks she's found herself in since? My guess is probably more.
No way am I ever folding quads. Even if there's a one-liner to a straight flush on the board, I'm still not folding quads.
I will fold quads if is deep stack and there’s one card straight flush showing
Only a experience player could lay down quads cause they seen to many coolers
The argument that someone can learn something watching this is also pretty trivial. How many of those 141.000 watchers actually play 20/40/80 800bb deep. My guess is something between 0 and 1 if you miscount Kym Lim who has probably watched this analysis.
I've actually folded quad queens in a live game, but it was plo. AQdJdQAd board vs an utg nit - the guy opened one pot in 6 hours and it was full pot utg. I thought he had AAxy, and but he only showed KdTd after the hand for a Royal. Never did find out if he had quads as well.
Some people don’t fold 3rd pair
And they are perpetually losing, this fold makes perfect sense.
at that point, show me the royal flush......
i'd have tanked at 6.8k and called too, i like to consider how much i'm willing to lose on varied boards like this
Varied Boards, you call with quads and I have AA I’m laughing at you when you call saying WHEW why wouldn’t you re raise and you said I thought you had a royal. Lol you had quads and you thought I had a royal? Like this is absolutely mind blowing people say this. I’ve played idk how many 100,000’s of hands I’ve got 2 royal flushes and one was like 3 years ago the other on full tilt in a 200$ buy in tournament. Did get much value out of it either time. But out of those 2x times I’ve gotten it maybe seen 500 boards where a str8 flush and royal are possible! And I’ve seen all ins on those textures some not paired some paired usually the coolers are Nut flush vs full house that’s the best I’ve seen. I don’t remember seeing quads vs full house cooler and the guy said why didn’t you raise?? “ I was scared of the royal flush!! “ everyone would laugh at you,
How do you not have a read at 6800$ and you reraise to 21k$ but then magically "get a read" when villain shoves 42k$ more over the top? No way- horrible fold!
I get what you are saying, but don't fully agree. You have to see yourself through they eyes of your op too, meaning the op came over the top despite your re-re-re sooo....??
Who says she didn’t have a read at $6800? A read that someone’s strong when they 3-bet represents a much wider range than a read that someone’s strong when they 5-bet.
Imagine you flop the nut flush with A5 on a JT9 board.
If you get 3-bet and your opponent looks strong you’re going to be feeling pretty good. They can certainly be betting lower flushes that don’t want the naked ace to draw cheaply.
But if you get 5-bet and your opponent is still looking strong you have to be pretty concerned. I mean, are they really 5 betting a K high flush?
@@nicks210684 or the same thing can be a bluff or bad play. Both of which seems more likely on this specific hand imo
I went into this video assuming that the answer was going to be about how bad of a fold it was, and in a way it kind of is, but only because, as you pointed out, other mistakes had happened along the way. If she calls the 6800 it's still a cool story either way. It's not often that quads gets beat,. So as bad as losing that much would be, if it happened, it's still a decent enough story to be worth it.
That being said, once she'd committed 1/3 of her stack to it, I do genuinely feel like she has to call and take the bad beat. My reason for this is simple enough. Why did she re-raise to 21K if she didn't want to showdown? Did she honestly make that bet, saying to herself, Imma throw it away if he shoves? If those thoughts are going through her head, why not just call the 6800?
I have a hard time believing with the action stated the reg had a Royal. Firstly the open from EP for 200 seems like a tighter range of more premium (AA good possibility), KJ is more of a later opening and some EP opening. When the flop comes AQQ the reg is likely thinking along the same lines as Kim, I have a nutted hand and I will give the others the opportunity to bluff or catch up. With KJ of diamonds the more likely line would be to bet for many reasons, if everyone folds you pick up the pot with K high and likely the worst hand, if they call it builds a pot for the possibility of a big payout if you hit the 10d and it gives you information on the strength of the other players hands. The turn check is still both sitting nutted hoping someone bluffs or catches up enough to give some value, with the KJ of diamonds the reg would still want to get some value with a flush and bet. On the river if the reg has AA and is raised, they still have to put the opponent on either a K high flush or a smaller boat and shove for value. The fact that Kim didn't 3 bet pre flop would cause a pro to put quad Q's as a very low probability.
Omg I’ve been making this same argument against “Jonathan” who I honestly think is saying I agree with a fold so he gets comments and likes. But literally everything you have said is exactly why you can’t fold! Soooo... a couple other factors right? If there’s any chance the person has AA it’s 3 wins to 2 Losses of str8 flush and royal. She’s committed 21k, I was assuming she had 80k or something. No she had 42k total so she shoved half her stack in there hoping to get a call and got raised. She later says it was most of my bank roll, well idk wTF your doing at these stakes if that’s even close to most of your bank roll and no one has you staked or action. Honestly the more I here about this KYM gal the more she seems like she isn’t a professional or semi-pro.
Also, thanks it just feels good that someone on here has enough logic to stop go through the analysis. And understand the situation. I think Reg maybe plays AK AJ AA and 10’s like this granted this based off missing info So. If you run this in a sim, you’d get 3 combos of AA 3x 10’s (real bold 5x bet IMO) but maybe just had a bad read on KYM she did flat call check check. Thanks for pointing out this is why you don’t flat call queens here!!! Ever!!!! Because if he’s got AA your most likely going to see a 4x bet call flop the NUTZ get it in game over! Instead you played a line slow playing so he could catch up??? The. He does you get 5x bet and assume it’s the NUTZ right!!!!? He only had 2 combos of nuts and about 20 total combos full houses and semi bluffs with blockers of full houses and Str8 flushes. So run the sim you have 42k behind 43k in the middle getting 50% equity and 2 to 1 pot odds with quads. Your winning about 90% of the time. This is a dream come true. Lol I think KYM needs to play smaller stakes because if she folds quads to a 2combo hand and assumes “reg” never bluffs. He’s at least taking this line with AA no doubt. I mean the whole point of check check is disguising your hand but to be to scared to call lol that’s what it comes down to is she couldn’t afford to lose the money. Jonathan just trying to get likes I made a 5,000$ side bet over 6.5 pros say you don’t fold here. Waiting to here back from him.
(Just everything he said above)
Like the only line that your losing top is Jdiamond 9 diamond and got scared with 2 queens? Which doesn’t make sense cause assuming someone had the Boat on the flop or turn they would lead. So I see a check on the flop out of position. But When I hit the flush on the turn after it goes. Check check I 3x bet to 600. Whale leaves KYM stays I hit the Gin card on the river you bet out 2,100 most likely I’m not going 4x bet then 5x bet. I’m going to try to polarize my bet by shoving after you make it $6,400 because there 12k I’m the pot you have 60k behind I want a call but you seem like a player who never goes all in, especially idk why you buy in for money you can’t lose, your play doesn’t make sense neither does your fold. And I bet you show Quads to the table and everyone is mind blown Reg prolly says amazing fold I had the royal but doesn’t show. And in his head says wtf is wrong with this girl next time she 4x bets I’m shoving on her because she’s always folding!!!
The final shove seems unlikely to me with AA.
I would play this in a casino with quad jackpot.
The stupidest thing in all this is that she would have gotten a small fortune here with her quards. Next time she has quads it will be in a $200 pot and nobody will care and she will win. How often do we get the chance of so much money with quads? She was so lucky to get so much money in with a super rare hand and she folds. It doesn't become weaker then that. She couldn't stand the pressure and was relieved to find an excuse to fold, that's just all there is to it.
I’d love to eat quads with 8 high.
Love you Jonathan but there’s no way you fold QUADS in her position, and there’s especially no way you fold Kings I’m your spot. You’re better at poker than me there’s no doubt about that like way better, but on both of those takes youre flat out wrong.
Idc if I’m playing against the lord Jesus Christ if I flop quads I’m getting it in end of story
At least with kings you can win about 20% of the time
Well, if you butcher basically every street this is what happens.
I think the reg thinks she is capped at TT coz she played it so passively. He has all the nutted AQ, AA, QQ in his range when she checks twice. His AA or AQ is basically the nuts as played from his perspective.