Tom Lee: The Fed may not have to do nine hikes this year
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 27 ก.ค. 2024
- Tom Lee, Fundstrat Advisors, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss his position in the market, how technology stocks will fare as the future for Treasurys becomes unclear and more. For access to live and exclusive video from CNBC subscribe to CNBC PRO: cnb.cx/2NGeIvi
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This guy is a broken record. No matter what he thinks market is going to go up. No real analysis. Priced in blah blah blah.
Yeah the guy is just a pawn used by our overlords. Classic case of getting the dumb money to bail out the smart
Right? Every time
All inflation is in housing market. Needs to crash big time
I've only known about Tom Lee for a few months (ever since I began watching these CNBC stock videos).
I used to have hope when hearing him talk about the market going up,
but, several months later and seeing a lot of the market continue to go down and stay down, I'm no longer optimistic from hearing him speak lol
Same. He gets our hopes up and then this lol
🤣🤣🤣🤣
guys we're talking about stocks here
He’s just terrible. He’s always bullish.
@@DaveOriginallyfromBrooklyn He’s pretty much a broken clock
tom is that guy that will tell you everything is alright when your house is burning
if your house is burning down, dont look for a fireman to come through the news
the only media analyst that called the bull market run since the pandemic. thomas lee is absolutely right on the fed's next moves and thinking outside the idiot box as usual. this is why he and bullish traders like myself continue to rake it in as traders. when you combine the likely prospect that the fed chair will absolutely NOT execute on rate hike threats, that this is all posturing, and that inflation is a GOOD thing for company profits, the stage is set for skyrocketing earnings season profits. let's all enjoy our inevitable cap gains to come after earnings from tesla, amd, apple, meta, oracle and baby berks. -hail to the ongoing stock market miracle. enjoy!
Amen.
You’re in denial about the global issues with supply chains and the issue of economic growth versus inflation conundrum. If true growth is less than inflation do you equate it as economically strong performance? There’s always a way to make money in the market. The fed is under extreme political pressure to stop the continual rise in inflation.
You don’t half talk a lot of rubbish,…yields are rising fast the s&p and Nasdaq are skating on thin ice
Spoken like the classic person in denial who's portfolio is about to get wrecked
huh ? lol many people predicted this. But Tom has been dead wrong for 6 months. The guy is a clown
Tom...I do agree with you on that the Fed may not have to do a ton of rate hikes....because everyone selling stock will do the Fed's job for them 🤣🤣🤣🤣
Selling stocks doesn’t change the price of food, rent, wages, etc.
Don’t understand all these negative comments. Tom has been saying the last 6 months that the first half of 2022 will be treacherous. His prediction is a rally in the 2nd half....time will tell but I don’t get all the hate until we see how it plays out
Treacherous with a violent rally in February - hmm
We need more hikes - the higher the better
He is forever bullish which I like. If one day even he is bearish, we are really doomed
Then its time to go all in..once Tom is bearish lol
All in today
4000 shares of affirm let’s go
Yikes...
You have confidence to beat the Fed, you have more money than the Fed, our saviour
@@whl23 the fed will pivot, the economy is already slowing
I sell call options to offset risk on the downside, I made $12,000 this week alone
This is the bottom before a rally to new all time highs
@@63nickmcd lol watch and learn
Tom lee speaking the truth
Tom Lee - the broken clock wrong for 6 months (Nov 2021) and still the fanboys are only 3rd to Cathie and Elon. Keep saying BUY BUY BUY Tom. It's right 70% of the time. You've only destroyed people for 6 months.
This one he nailed. He is right on here.
Tom Lee has been wrong for the last 7 months. Please stop bringing him on, it's getting embarrassing.
It’s more than embarrassing/ I’m surprised his firm still employs him
@@baldutt3223 Totally agree with you. Fundstrat is just wasting their money on him, plus cnbc just needs to stop bringing him on. Way better analysts out there.
excellent points！
Cramer said sell oil at the absolute bottom, he is now saying buy oil at absolute top and to sell tech.
It doesn't just matter how many times a hike occurs, it matters how much the hike is. Fine they don't do 9 they do 5 but 2 of them are 50bp see. It's about velocity of money
I love this guy
Yeah, beat this guy up while the market drops short term, he'll be laughing at you in February of next year
Don't worry, impotent powell will come out and save the rich and the markets if we start to drop a little too much.
The Fed still has to be able to Service it’s huge debt and the higher the rates go the tougher it’s going to be. Tom is right the market is already doing some of the work that the Fed intended to do. Once the selling has exhausted itself big money is going to be going on a buying spree again.💰 hold some dry powder for opportunity
The fed doesn't have debt. The govt has debt. Fed just buys govt debt. Rates dont hurt fed just us tax payers
Millionaires will be made
@@jasonf9916 Technically, the Feds profits are given back to the Treasury. In reality the US Govt pays 0% interest. You actually thought the man paid interest? 🤣
@@jasonf9916 Interest rates have an impact on the gov servicing it's debt as well as other obligations such as social security. The FED is not an independent entity anymore so there is political pressure.
It's poor people's fault that they're poor, let them eat cake
How do you find out what the current Federal interest rate is currrently
He says in 6 to 9 months. That seems reasonable
Buckle up ppl it’s about to be a bumpy ride. It’s going to get ugly
Awesome.
If Tom Lee ever goes bearish hit the sell button immediately.
The opposite
The biggest thing he overlooks is how inflation has a compounding effect, the fear that rates will rise causes price to go up and eventually wages will not be in line with inflation.
That’s not how it works at all
the hero we need but dont deserve
Tom Lee is the man!!!!!!
this is exactly what I tell my friends and family, especially when they panic sell tech. forget stock price and valuation especially if your long for at least % years which most of them are. these are the only company that year after year can grow there earnings.
I have a friend who just sold all his tech last week and is buying back and crying.
selling at a loss kids in the short term and buying back a company days later can have huge connateness.
WASH SELL Rule
We should call him Tommy Chill now. Jimmy is gone too sisi
Tom is wildly bullish, has been for years. The expression on his face at the start here says everything lmfao "why isn't BTC over $100k :( why isn't the Dow over $40k :( " LOL
He gave good advice before the 08 crash
Liking the EV DIP Plays.... * FFIE..... * SOLO...... * IQST......and XOS. 3 out of 4 GREEN Today. Other Down Less than 1 %.
J Powel and the fed are teaching Tom Lee and other investors that they're in charge and there's no such thing as "free market". The fed is the market 😁
fed was responsible for market going up during covid, and is responsible for volatile market now and for the foreseeable future.
@@stant7122 I think the same thing....if the Fed artificially caused a boom in the markets during the pandemic, then it stands to common sense that they have to create an artificial slowdown or even a recession to get things in balance again, right??
@Mike Hundt not a bull or a bear. Just wanna make money. Even though right now I have been having to short more than go long...and I certainly hope you are right. But I am very pessimistic right now. You don't just dump 95 billion per month into the bond market and expect a soft landing. Mortgage rates are at 5.25 percent. Consumer borrowing is at 41 billion even though 15 billion was expected....I can see them crashing the housing market. I am here with the regular people and they are complaining already about mortgages
@Mike Hundt Mike I really really hope you are right brother!! ☺️ be safe ✌️
Fed is clueless or lying
Hell yah bring on the fed hikes
Long end bond rising with short end bc they are both starting from basically zero!
All I want to know is... When the fk are car prices going to go down so I can buy my Mustang!? 😡😡😡
Guys does not know why he is talking about, market will tank furthe
This notion of 7-9 rate hikes by the Fed is preposterous. This isnt the 1970's all over again with the US Dollar being taken off the perceived gold standard and oil embargoes by the Middle East nations driving prices higher. This inflation is from price gouging by shipping companies to screw over consumers, oil trading hedge funds and brokerage houses seeing the opportunity to jump on the bandwagon and everyone else is caught in the middle.
The most profitable way to get through this is to buy companies that are producing the things people need and use on a daily basis from food, tires and gasoline to diapers, toilet paper and clothing.
Lmao. Its the money supply stupid. What do you think it going to happen when economy/ production shuts down and at the same time the Gov expands money supply to unprecedented levels. This inflation is caused by policy mistakes and supply chain issues are a result of that.
this is worse than the 70s, much worse
@@chrischoir3594 yes it's the worst inflation ever if measured the same way as 70s and 80s
@@chrischoir3594 It's not even close to being as bad as the 1970's. This is manipulated inflation from corporations, bordering on collusion with shipping companies.
@@id10t98 it is much worse than the 70s. First off look at how they calculated inflation in the 70s vs now. Consider home prices going up 35% in the last year. How is that manipulated by shipping companies? lol health care costs? tuition? the list goes on. this is all caused by excessive money printing and stimulus. Supply chain and price gouging is all BS.
Preach it Tom! 9 freak'in hikes priced in. What happens in this market if/when the Fed doesn't do 9 hikes this year? Accumulate! They are giving away Tesla shares at these low low prices.
you don't know what youre' talking about - typical cnbc follower
TSLA at low low prices? What are you smoking?
Was with you till you said tesla lol overpriced
Haha. $700 was low. $1000 is not dude
tom is the guy that has been right the whole time, until the one time you choose to trust him and buy in, and then he is wrong
Inflation is done!? Bro this inflation needs to be reversed unless all of us are gonna get like 25% pay increases then this bs needs to be reversed
This guy always has such an incredible grasp of the obvious ! Seldom right - just don’t get the point . Oh we have these open blocks of time and ads to sell - genius as Trump would say.
I think the Fed should begin rapid balance sheet reduction first, before raising any Fed interest rates.
The current inflation is mainly due to the Ukraine war, Covid-19 disruption, deglobalization, and QE, which cannot be solved via interest rates.
Raising the interest rates will only let ordinary people suffer more, especially with the increase in the mortgage/rent payment.
For ordinary people, the effect of double the mortgage/rent payment is much higher than double the energy & food bill. People can go through the unavoidable increase in their energy & food bills, but why should the Fed add a much heavier layer of higher mortgage/rent to them quickly before they can go through the higher bills first?
The rapid expansion Fed balance sheet via the QE program is unhealthy, and it mainly creates inflation and helps the people in the financial world, while the interest rate affects the living cost of every ordinary people.
I think the Fed should start the rapid balance sheet reduction first, while raising the interest rates only after the reduction is finished, and give some time to the ordinary people to let them have enough income to pay for their monthly bills.
Recently, lots of investment banks and financial institutions urge a quicker increase of the Fed rates, which will only benefit themselves but not the general public, as the investment banks have already purchased lots of derivatives against the well-informed rates rise. The quicker raising rates make the financial cost and holding time value premium of the hedging derivatives lower, and the higher rates let the banks earn much higher interest payments after these hedgings. While ordinary people have not done any hedging.
Originally, the bankers should not earn so much profit from these hedgings. But if the rates are raised much higher and quicker, the bankers can get big profits from the lower cost derivatives, and also enjoy higher interest payments from their fixed-income securities holdings after this profit, while they also earn the money from the loss which Fed made during the selling of their holdings with a lower price after its rates rise.
Rates up first -> bonds price down -> later Fed reduce balance sheet with a lower price -> public Fed lost money to private bankers -> BAD.
Reduce balance sheet first with a normal price before rates up -> public Fed does not lose -> raise the rates after balance sheet reduction -> GOOD.
After transferring so much wealth from the public into the private bankers via a quick hudge rates rise, If the balance sheet is still not reduced, a recession will come as every ordinary people are suffering from the rapid huge rates disruption without hedging, and Fed will just see the increase and later reduce the rates, as well as, create an even bigger unhealthy balance sheet!
What is more, in order to maintain the US dollar hegemony, both reducing the Fed balance sheet and keeping the Fed rates stable are very important, as no one wants to hold a volatile and massive expansion thing.
In history, the last several rate hike cycles have never brought the US equity market down. Please compare the full chart of SP500 and federal funds rate! How could the raising rates reduce the price of assets?
If the fed reduce the balance sheet without raising rates, the house price will go down, and the monthly mortgage payment will be steady. People will find an easier life.
If the fed raise the rates without reducing its balance sheet, the house price will still be super high, and the people have to pay much higher mortgage. People are suffering!
Forget bullishness, he's in bulshitness territory at this point
Big Tom does not look through the prism of high inflation, Fed tempering, high-interest rates, Bottlenecks in global supply chains, INSTEAD through his very very thick glasses. It's all foggy🤣
Fed doesn’t need to hike crap!!!! All waste
I don’t know who is worse cramer or lee
Cramer. It's not even close
TOMMMMMM
inflation overrated.
only sustained inflation is in housing and private equity.
raising funds rate will barely affect food and energy prices, will only stunt growth.
prices have already stabilized, and congress needs to actually do its job and not just depend on monetary policy to do the impossible.
Tom Lee always bullish.. even nasdaq down to 10K.
Why does Sara always sound like an angry wife? She needs to chill tf out
Lol
Tom liked Zoom at 500$ :)
Is she being deliberately flirtatious
being bullish pays since stocks go up 73% of the time on average. no strategy or insights.. just being bullish worked past decade so he keeps following it.
Yes max of 3 hikes. No way we can do 9 or 13 rofl
This guys been so wrong so often
Was looking for a comment like this haha. Too accurate lol
Not true at all. He called the record breaking bull market we have had and you not knowing that reflects only on you.
No, he said the first half of the year would be treacherous
Ohh men, you don't need to go even to high school to talk about casino market $$$
🙏🙏🙏✌🏻🤞✌🏻
Alot bullish then thí blonde
this guy has been so wrong lately.
remember, he's paid to be bullish.
You can see that his boyfriend has kept him up late....same guy that was predictjng a huge rally in Feb....full of BS
Fundstrat Tom and Jerry is desperate! He's always bullish, but timing is always wrong, always buy the dip for the last 10 years when inflation has been nowhere! Now tha China has lockdown again, which coming to the west, there will be more inflationary pressure, but Tom will be buy the dip for the next 2 years...
Stocks are sh*t.
Cautious or retreating bull? He has lost a good deal of courage.
He is always bullish.
Who is this scared little pumper?! Hahaha
this clown is always wrong
EPIC crash coming. Good luck to all. Cash, gold, and silver will reign supreme
What do you see the S&P dipping to this year?
@@ConestogaCreek 1,800
@@mikehawk4856 wow ok that’s bold. Not sure the trading algorithms would allow that. Also I think there is enough pent up demand for goods and services by the post-lockdown public that a major recession like you are calling for would not come through until 2024. But that’s just my take, I’ve been wrong before and you could be proven correct.
One more thing - you could make a fortune going short if 1800 happens.
@@ConestogaCreek SPY 200 puts 2024 expiry locked and loaded
Tom lee bullish 7/24/365
4 months ago he said we'd have 5100 S&P in January lul
Worried about Tom. He was providing some solid S&P guidance through 2021, then stumbled, and now looks like a fall to me. His base case says no recession. That is some very shaky ground. Connect these dots.... Russia is going off line = upward price pressure on energy, commodities for the "foreseeable" future = inflationary pressures increasing = a more aggressive FED (higher and higher rates) = economic slowdown that (IMO) leads to a recession at least to some degree. I see new lows ahead for the S&P. Note that Tom had a 100K target price on BTC throughout 2021 and so we know he is far from infallible.
Tom has been more right on the S&P than anyone the last 5 years. As for crypto - your guess is as good as mine.
@@ConestogaCreek I've followed a number of analysts over the years and noticed that virtually none are consistently right over the long term, which explains why very few fund managers beat their baseline index. However, it seems like the better analysts do quite well in specific market environments. I think Tom will be shown to be a good performer in bull markets, but in the market we have now (I consider it to be a bear market), he may continue to struggle.
@@jlvandat69 I see your point. There does seems to be something in the air, shortages of basic everyday items that we have not seen in post WWII America. Add to that inflation, good jobs going away, lawlessness being actively promoted by some in government, uncertainties everywhere.
@@ConestogaCreek I am an optimist at heart, but agree with you- there's "something in the air". The war is going to have much more far-reaching effects than most realize, IMO. We are basically taking Russia off line for an extended period, for example, and it turns out that country is a major contributor to the supply chains in everything from energy to precious metals and food. There's a domino effect in play = higher inflation than most predict. FED has no choice but to raise rates faster than expected, leading to a recession, even if shallow. I've been net short for a month and will remain that way, and also holding BITO put options as I see crypto continuing south long term, with some serious retracements.
@@jlvandat69 yes I own some SDS shares an ETF that shorts the S&P. Good luck!
SAD THIS HOT CHICK DONT KNOW WTF THE 10 YYC IS LOL
"We think in 6-9 months, some Growth stocks could be outperformers."
That's nice. Still waiting for that violent, V-shaped February rally.
Blonde host ......"Mega cap is under pressure today!" ...... Yeah that means its a dip and you buy dummy!