Musk: Telsa is "GOING ALL IN" on FSD--With GROK!
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 13 พ.ค. 2024
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Do you not remember the movie, Soylent Green? Its human juice...
Tailoring FSD and route planning for each driver is compelling. Having a 'memory' in the car would reduce the frustration level caused by the car repeating the same move or route recommendation that the individual driver has rejected repeatedly. One example is my route planner recommends turning on a 'shortcut' through a neighborhood to save a few seconds... I reject it every time to be courteous to the neighborhood.
I think the local driving issue will become a non-issue. When FSD becomes ubiquitous it will determine the driving culture.
I have had the same thought in the past. A related topic is that once FSD becomes ubiquitous, the NHTSA may then require all cars with FSD to obey the letter of the law - coming to a full and complete stop at stop signs, obeying speed limits strictly, and so forth. It may not be so bad if we’re watching Netflix on our screens and being oblivious to how we’re being driven.
@@franklanham6936Not completely stopping at stop signs is just showing the Tesla is picking up bad habits and that there should be a way of manually coding in traffic rules.
It will have issues becoming ubiquitous if it is unable to adapt to the existing local driving culture.
FSD/GROK will be like having your own London cabbie driving you everywhere.
It's ok to dream. But remember, so many broken promises and hype and exaggeration from Elan over the years.
Skepticism is in order here.
This is why I follow your channel. Amazing analysis and speculation
Hmm, I do occasionally say to FSD, “Giddyup Horse!”
"Not one FSD ... one for every driver" sounds great. Much more useful. When available? Two weeks?
Especially just remembering preferred routes and preferred behaviors as indicated manually.
I would be extremely surprised if Tesla actually does what the Dr. is saying here..... namely make FSD drive in an individual manner using LMMs, etc.
Elon is convinced that true level 4 or higher is coming very soon. People will no longer have to pay attention to the drive. Once that happens the "local driving method" will no longer be of any consequence as it will quickly disappear as robo-taxis become the dominant vehicles on the road. In other words local driving variations will disappear and the way robo-taxis drive will become the norm.
REMEMBER THE MAXIM...."No process is the best process "
I just don't think Elon will bother with this.
Yeah, it seems like adding a huge amount of complexity for short term usage. It should not cater to the most aggressive drivers or the slowest drivers. There could be more predefined driving options such as “change lanes early” and “slower on curves” and “avoid unprotected left turns”. If you add too many variables it easily becomes more unpredictable and more difficult for Tesla to fix issues.
Yes, the sooner I don’t have to pay attention, then I won’t care if it drives like me or not.
Yeah, he seems to forget that most people stop caring about the driving style when they aren't driving.
@@Mark-kt5mh I think he might still care due to his, admitted, OCD issues. Or should I say "CDO" because he can't stand to have the letters unalphabetized??
🤣
Been waiting for this since the twitter interactions
Grok would make it really easy to tell the robotaxi where you want it to take you, even multiple short stops.
Your ideas address many comments I hear YT FSD reviewers make. "If I were driving, I'd do..."
One of John's better videos. When he comes prepared he is great, when he does stream of consciousness he's terrible. Reducing unnecessary waffle remains very important.
You are doing a great explaining this. Thank you.
I think the idea of individualized fsd isn't a good way to think about it. What fsd needs to do is drive in a manner that inspires confidence in the passengers that they will arrive safely. This means that fsd should be consistent, predictable and smooth. Things like hitting pot holes and scrubbing curbs, signalling and cancelling lane changes erode confidence. It's not so much about the local, or personal, driving culture, but about fsd knowing what the right thing to do is, and doing it competently so the passengers can relax. Over time as more cars have fsd I expect them to be able to talk to each other and negotiate to coordinate their speed and directions to avoid each other making travel even smoother. (Low latency communication is essential to this, another of Tesla's projects.)
What we need is for the FSD to remember where it has driven. In this way you could drive in your city everywhere and teach the FSD how to navigate the local area just as we do ONLY SAFER.
Fantastic information.
I really enjoy your videos but this one is my favorite. I'm very excited about a customized Grok!
I agree! Localized memory (context window) will be required for FSD as well as Optimus (where the vacuum is kept, where the dishes go etc.).
Alexa is pretty good, but having a chatbot in the car would be wonderful.
Yes please do a video on GROQ & GROK, and Lama 3 - thanks - you are awesome!!
Really good, dr.😅
Yes. Localisation. Yes
seems to me like grock should be able to be the navigator - look at the video and mapped route and make decisions about when to get in the turn lane, if it really is a turn lane etc. basically fix the planning challenge
Grok is an LLM. It's trained on social media comments and other text. It's not going to be good at route planning unless it were trained on millions of examples of optimal routes.
@@gnargnargnar John’s point is that Grok will in fact be able to perform logical thinking processes and that it would thus be able to do route planning. I would feel much more comfortable using FSD safely if Grok were to be able to provide such logical thinking to supplement the driving of the car.
@@franklanham6936That's not how LLMs work.
Some people believe that to admit a fault is to cure it. Think about it, John.
Yes. I would like to see a video on GROQ.
All TESLA bulls need to do marketing on their channels… this tells a lot!
would you not want to make a few bucks if you had a channel ?
FSD + GROK could actually be a big step forward for this effort. Possibly the reason to go to V13, and for the stock price to finally trend up for a substantial period. And "memories" as you describe them could lead to the next big step towards AGI. Not fully AGI, but close enough for "FSD" to actually become FSD. Thank you, sir, the future is definitely looking brighter.
Soylent Green is People!
Saying that everyone needs their own version of FSD is like saying that everyone requires their own personal taxi driver. With FSD it doesn’t matter what sort of driver you are …. You aren’t driving.
FSD isn't driving either. It is being *supervised* for *every* *second* on the road, by a human.
@@DerekDavis213 I believe. DrNIA was talking about when FSD will eventually be unsupervised, as was I
@@andrewpaulhart Oh ok. You mean eventually, in the distant future.
Because today, FSD is a simple minded Level 2 assistant that makes many mistakes. 100% human supervision is required.
@@DerekDavis213 depends on your definition of distant I suppose. Regardless, DrNIA was talking about how FSD should be ultimately designed, and a clue is in the name that full autonomy is the design goal.
Thx John. I think they really should 'Gio-tag' all their training input and that should get it closer to 'Local Driver' mode. For instance, if you go to a town / city were the driving mannerisms diver, fsd will adjust.
While I don’t like “sponsor ads”, your enthusiasm makes them palatable.
This is not a memory of model (GPT-4), only a saved conversation in database and when you get back and ask something, is sends max context size of the chat back to API. If OpenAI doesn't remove it, it will stay there for years. Even with different model like GPT-5, you can ask same question and it will continue. Lot of improvement that we see is only because of programming on top of LLM models.
Regarding "Balls to the wall," heard someone suggest it might be steam train engine related, it seems to have referred to an era of airplanes, with ball handled Engine RPM, Mixture and prop speed controls, that would all be maxed out for full power.
Do they do Soylent in Green .. that's the tastiest I hear.
@6:31 wow DR.KNOW your kitchen look EERILY similar to mine. same appliances and counter tops. if your fridge is behind the camera to the right.... that's creepy lol!
The concept of localized and individualized FSD will meet some limitations. First if I start with FSD it won’t have had a chance to learn my preferences. Second when FSD is common on cars, the FSD will likely communicate and negotiate with other autos in a networked traffic management scheme. At some point this could (and in China will) be used to restrict where or when passengers travel. With FSD you are no longer a driver, you are a passenger. How does that fit with the male psyche? FSD proponents (of which I am one) seldom seem to factor this in. They bank FSD on the hassle and time-saving of driving without consideration of the joys and tradition of old school driving . It’s likely that there will be holdouts from electrification who want undetected freedom of movement. Culture wars here we come. Can you imagine the FSD Formula One Grand Prix or Daytona 500.?
Very interesting thoughts on Grok integration with fsd.
I do agree that localisation is key. Not sure how essencial personlisation is, we already have the chill, average and agressive modes, not sure it can or should be more customisable.
timestamp 10:27 ~ 'Grok will be able to form memories' ... reminds me of Blade Runner ... where memories were pre-installed in the Replicants before they were awakened ... makes me wonder if we could have multiple 'personalities' or 'styles' for our Tesla ... let's say we want the driving style of a race car driver ... or that of a city cab driver ... or that of a retiree simply out for a lazy morning drive just to see the sunrise ... we could even catalog our styles like 'playlists' and have even more fun ..
14:19 I think if every driver had one it’s too many versions. But I think it should localise the best versions of drivers at different points in each complicated part of the city. It doesn’t have to drive just like the person in the driver seat. The whole point is it should driver correctly like a very good taxi driver who knows the city.
FSD 12.x is like the movie Memento.
If you've seen it, you know.
This may be unrelated, but I would think VERY SOON FSD would be 10 out of 10 confidence on certain roads and could inform the driver 'there should be no need for intervention the next 30 minutes or so' with like I said, a 10 out of 10 confidence. However, when the system drops to 9 out of 10 for whatever reason, it lets the driver know to be aware just in case.
I think that would be an excellent intermediate step before the FULL FSD for anywhere and everywhere point and would give more users a reason to jump in.
So you are driving for one hour somewhere, the FSD at first suggests there may be reason to pay attention in a busy area with construction etc, but then you get to a certain road and it says, next 34 miles and approx 25 minutes, all good, so the person can just kick back and do something else. If people experienced that, I think more people would adopt it earlier on because they could observe for themselves the system does understand when it should have full confidence, and when it demonstrates that time after time after time, the user will say.... WOW! I am in!!
The system really does understand to let me know if I need to pay attention, and if I don't, it knows that also!
_I would think VERY SOON FSD would be 10 out of 10 confidence on certain roads_
Sure, when you drive 10 minutes to the grocery store.
On any modestly challenging drive, the latest FSD still makes mistakes. Every day. Human must intervene.
Driving behavior must be tunable based on many factors. For instance, 90+ percent of the time I prefer that the car is driven gently and at a moderate speed. Every now and then, I need the car to be quicker off the line and to optimize the drive to reduce travel time, while still driving safely and with an eye to avoid a ticketing. Fundamentally, I want there to be a difference between the results of “Home, Jarvis” and what results when I add “and step on it!”
Balls to the wall = $10B on FSD compute. The only way TSLA can spend $10B is to buy NVDA H100 hardware. The bet is that neural nets using imitation learning will reach full autonomous driving almost purely by scaling the compute. Other AI scientists differ, but overall it’s an “article of faith” by the current AI giants (OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta, MS) that scaling will work. Place your bet.
Important to know that advertising, customer service, product design, and existing model update/refresh are being sacrificed to pay the NVDA compute bill. This will become clearer after the call today.
Dr Never delivered a production product, how will they update FSD when they do this to it?
Cool insight on customization. I would add that road and weather conditions change how people drive and would want to be driven by FSD.
Should do a video on GROQ
I agree that FSD will allow tweaking to match drivers' preferences. I think that legal concerns will limit the amount of tweaking and I think that this limited tweaking will be close enough for most of us. Maybe DRKIA will be frustrated on a few paths through Athens, but there is probably some therapy that could help.
YES! Please explain "groq" v. "grok" as each being upcoming parts of the AI revolution.
Fsd should be required to follow the law. On that note, people should too.
No, dah
FSD cannot even see broken glass in the road, or a gate that is down, or a big sign that says DO NOT ENTER.
FSD is a simple minded Level 2 assistant. Nothing more.
I hope the bleeding edge stuff that is 6 months ahead of what we see is already doing something like this.
At 04:25 you mention a name that I can't quite make out. Who is that and where can I find this research?
Soylent has 400 cal. (this is good) & 0% cholesterol. Plant base is great.
👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻✌🏻
I've known since 2003 Tesla would have the current impact on the economy, and have had faith in the idea of EC since.
I couldn't fathom at the time FSD,but WoW two decades later and we almost have JohnnyCab. Once Grok ai is tied into FSD we can all have a knight rider kit car companion.
The GROK integration sounds really cool but can the current HW4 handle that? Is there enough RAM? Can they add RAM in a service call (paid)? Does the car have enough compute/ What about HW3?
I think so many FSD novices give up on, or hate FSD, is because FSD does not drive exactly the way they would. Some give up because they can’t stand the constant nag since they can’t master how to put a slight pressure on the steering wheel. Some get angry because FSD is too meek or too aggressive. When robo taxis finally arrive, they may just sit back and enjoy the ride like they would in on an Uber ride.
I've got to be honest. I think having FSD alter its driving behavior to accommodate the driving personality of each individual driver would be a negative development. The ultimate expression of FSD, imo would be the efficiency shown in the movie Minority Report (I think that's the movie). To that end, it should develop driving habits that are both safe and the most efficient for the driving conditions.
KITT.
Kinetically Intelligent Tesla Transformer.
Katastrophically Inept Tesla Timebomb
Groq please do a video about it!
Yep. Probably 90%+ of my disengagements and interventions while using FSD (supervised) are due to preference mismatch. The car isn’t handling a scenario the way I would like it to or not going the route I want to go
OR, FSD is:
hitting a curb
failing to make a Left turn
going full speed over a speed bump
going down a road with DO NOT ENTER sign
It's not just a mismatch of preferences.
You will be able to speak to grok in a robotaxi and give it instructions that grok can then feed into fsd. For example: drive around the corner and drop me off because this door is usually locked. Or, STOP immediately
As a tesla owner, how can I help further improvements with FSD?
I have two shares I got recently via Webull but have no idea how or if I can vote.
big improvement would be if it could remember a speedbump instead of having to see it. I see FSD videos all the time where the car makes exactly the same mistake every time. Speed limits and where exactly to stop are commonly having to be adjusted by supervising driver again and again at the same spot. Would be great if you could tell the car "the speed limit is 55 here, not 35", and have it remember that.
_I see FSD videos all the time where the car makes exactly the same mistake every time_
And that shows very clearly that FSD's 8 cameras cannot see like *one* *pair* of human eyes. FSD is very primitive, and has poor situational awareness.
@@DerekDavis213 Wrong. It shows FSD's 8 cameras see exactly like human eyes. What is different from humans is that it does not learn, and you can't teach it. When it thinks the speed limit is different from what it is, this is because it has not seen a speed limit sign yet, and it is going off mapping data that is incorrect. I wish you could tell it the speed limit for that place and it would remember it. In fact it has better situational awareness, because it has 8 eyes instead of 2, and is constantly monitoring all directions.
As more cars have FSD, driving will average out to a good safe model. There are so many problem drivers that one needs to watch for. This is commonly known as defensive driving.
I see😀
Sponsoring Solient? Does it come in green?
Wouldn't this case data storage issues if everyone had their own individual profiles?
Compared to the amount of data that Tesla is collecting and processing today? No, it's nothing.
When is the shareholder vote?
I think there is merit in tailoring FSD to each user as you say, but for mass appeal and ease of use it would perhaps be better to divide it into both having a Generically Good Driver (with options for level of assertiveness in traffic) as well as giving the possibility to Fully Individualize your driving experience to better match your own driving style. In both cases it could take inference from the local driving culture as well as feedback from the user.
With Grok getting baked into FSD, I'm excited to see when we'll be able to give the sort of feedback you'd be able to give to a human driver, eg. if you're having a sore back, you could ask it to temporarily go over bumps more softly or accelerate a bit slower.
Those who can, do. Those who can't talk.
Localizing FSD is a good thing but individualizing it is somewhat too much to ask for now, I think.
I really enjoy your content John, i like the way you think outside of the box. Just a bit of constructive criticism (hopefully you'll take it this way), I've noticed recently when you do your product adverts, it just sounds a bit fake, i appreciate you've got a script to follow but it's like you're doing a parody of a radio advert. Just be yourself 👍
I do think there needs to be multiple different driving modes but not area specific. Rather something along the lines of driver profiles. Area specific modes require the car knows where it is at all times, possible but not ideal. Also the fase change between different area's would be a pain, who / what determines the mode change and how? Also when your car starts to react differently to situations depending on the area it is in it will be nerve wracking to a lot of people if they don't know how the car is going to react. Maybe it would work locally if you visit the same plases often but then what is the point? Verry unlikely cenario if you ask me. You as a driver adapt to traffic circumstances depending on your character profile so some level of adaptability will always be present depending on density and behaviour of other drivers but your personal driver characteristics don't change. It would be better to be able to set a personal driver profile in wich you can set preferences for assertiveness, patience, distance keeping, speed profile, etc. That would be a lot easier to implement in the first place, you would always know within certain parameters how your car is going to react and have a much better experience as a result. And of course safety has top priority for Tesla so if need be I would assume the car would veer out of the profile set in safety critical situations but that's only logical.
"Dial it back a bit"
Not just when the wife is on board, but anytime you are not alone
That 's the way I am, and I suspect most 'aggressive' drivers do this as well
I wonder if FSD-G could figure that out by itself, after watching you alone and not alone?
IMO Tesla will have one FSD setting which is to be the safest driver it can possibly be and if you don't like how that drives you can drive yourself. The simple fact is if Tesla allows FSD to drive more aggressively cuz you want it too, then it gets in an accident. They, not you will get sued.
It’s not people
I think some of what you’re asking for might need training capability on board but some could be considered to be matching the car’s personality via a lot of complex hidden configuration with your own - interesting… - what we’re saying therefore is that the car is becoming an extension of yourself and should act thusly…
Maybe the car needs to keep an eye on you and decide when you’re looking impatient and then drive more aggressively or when you’re very chilled it can step it down a bit
We are almost talking giving the car emotions
Tesla needs a full time CEO…
And maybe someone with an Engineering background? Elan is not that guy.
At some point someone needs to give embodied AI a sense of smell and taste, otherwise they will never cook well. Btw, does Soylent come in green?
What's a Telsa?
Why would Elon go to INDIA right now when they are 6 months delayed in breaking ground in Mexico. If the Mexico plant was started then and we were eyeing the next plant then by all means get to the place. But Elong is in cash preservation mode. They have stated they are hoarding cash because next year will be tough and tougher if there is a recession. I wish they were growing and that is tesla I bought into 4 years ago but right now with now new plants coming on line for at least 2 years its a little hard to see. I know that is cash preservation mode is for the better but still sad to see.
You are saying you are an considerate driver.
Where I'd most want Groq or the like is in the audio parsing of asks to the car. The current system is dumb as rocks. Soylent is people.
Robotaxi will happen so fast that this fine tuning for supervised FSD is unnecessary.
Typo: Telsa instead of Tesla in title
"Links to all this stuff are in the description below."
Nope.
"According to Elon Musk".......Ok. Great.
Elon sees the big picture: just about anything AI is the way to go. And, jokingly, how can OEMs possibly license FSD when Consumer Reports rates them behind almost everyone else.
Ford wont go all in on FSD until FSD is completed to level 5 and Tesla take the first mover liability hit. Tesla would make Ford reposition Cameras and give other some portions of design for function to Tesla. And I don't see Ford doing that until FSD is completed in a level 5 since. For Ford to move now it would be too much of liability on their part.
Soylent green a good name for food with 2nd ingredient of maltodextrin. Not healthy
Please send me a link to vote for elon
If you can not tell if AI is human, can you kill it. ?????? 😮
FSD is embodied AI ....just a body with doors, cameras, ...and wheels. Both my X and 3 still have ultrasound sensors too.
Hmmm. Not sure that tesla can rely on open Ai to provide key IP. This would mean that Tesla will bleed funding between two Elon controlled entities and that should worry the board.
How is it the human brain can do so much with such little power?
Sabin H's video "AI More Energy Efficient than Humans, New Study Finds" reports that the brain is very power inefficient, about 1000x more efficient. But because our brains run if we are being productive or not the picture changes. In other words the AI is much more efficient but we have to power the human anyway so may as well use it.
how much of this plan is hampered on Elon's request of 25% of the company. As much I want FSD+GROK+any other AI function that would make the car product more attractive to buyers. How much of this is speculative if ELON says well I did not get 25% so Tesla only gets regular FSD no GROK or anything like that. And the Shareholders get a less premium product because I CEO wont move toward that ultimate end because he does not have enough control.
I just wrote a similar comment. This sounds like a big risk to Tesla shareholders. And if Elon leaves Tesla he may refuse to allow grok to support FSD. Or jack up the price to support. This may not end well
I don't agree. Unless we solve generalized AI driving it will never be enough. Luckily diffusion will get us there.
If yur eyes are not on the road in a robotaxi, why would driving culture be relevant.
Is there a touch of Amphetamine in that Soylent Green?
You seemed to be "speeding" through the content today, way too fast for me to follow 😃