I’m just not sure how Texas gets to 27. Both tackles are banged up and OSU’s ends are on an absolute tear. The only offense Oregon and Tennessee were able to generate at all was Gabriel and Nico running for their lives long enough to find someone open on a broken play. Ewers simply can’t do that. The numbers may not tell the story on this one. OSU annihilated Tennessee and Oregon and didn’t even have a turnover in either game. Those games looked bad enough, but frankly, they could have been even worse. If OSU shows up, I don’t think anyone can keep it close with them.
Howard had 1 interception against Tennessee. It was the play where He threw to Smith in the end zone, ball was tipped and caught as the Tenn player went out of bounds.
@ sorry I meant they didn’t force a turnover. In 2 games they combined to go -1 in TO margin and still won by a ton. Imagine how bad it gets when they go positive.
People aren't talking about that enough. OSU is getting teams out of there by the 2nd quarter off unbelivable offensive execution and sound/dominant defense..but they haven't even gotten any turnovers in the playoffs (yet). Caleb Downs had two (albeit difficult catches) interceptions through his hands & Cody Simon nearly missed a pick six in the Rose Bowl. If they start getting a few of those look out! Wouldn't count on Downs not making those plays in this game.
Oregon is the only team to get above 17 on Ohio State. I agree, I don't think the Texas offense can get to 27. The closest thing they've seen to the OSU defense is Georgia and they scored 34 total in 2 games. OSU's D is better than UGA.
Ignoring Playoffs just to refer back to the regular season worst games for Ohio State as evidence of something is the reason why you picked Oregon to win.
Some people never learn. Day ALWAYS has passing schemes for the playoffs. That's why Georgia was losing by 20 in '22. Too bad Marv got hurt (/targeted), he'd already have a championship.
Howard is the #2 ranked QB in the country, Ewers is #20. Howard has completed 75% of his passes and has completed 80% five times. He had one bad game, when he was concussed.
OSU struggles need to be looked at outside the stats. They aligned to (1) two significant injuries on the O line. Lost OT in Oregon and its best blocking TE too. Next game was Nebraska. Going into Michigan dealing with loss of Center. Those two linemen were playing at all American level. (2) Michigan play calling didn’t make sense. They won’t repeat that. (3) Freshman Jeremiah Smith at the beginning of the year was really good and Smith at the end of his Freshman year is the best a first round draft pick. Biggest question I have is can Texas DBs who are much better than Oregon and Tennessee players close the gap to keep first half close.
OSU fan just coming back to give you guys your flowers. You were right about how competitive this game would be and how Texas previously played down. Didn't agree with any of it initially, but sirs, you were right. #GoBucks!!
Not really though, I went back and counted 5 drives that, if our receivers didn't drop balls in their hands or we didn't have drive ending penalties we probably score. It could have easily been a 35 or 42 to 14 game. Texas also can claim some of the same but this was a game of two teams beating themselves, great defense and then Sawyer putting an end to it.
@@jaysonp9426I think all of that is probably more right than wrong but I still think we saw a very good performance from Texas' defense. The coverage was super solid for the majority of the game. Saw maybe 2 busts in coverage the entire game (one being the 75 yard screen play). Have to give them credit for that when they were facing a high powered offense and pretty good offensive scheme all night.
@@80zBaby absolutely, I was extremely impressed with Texas's defense, especially in the 2nd half. Some of those coverages and blitzes were extremely well masked and confusing. Def not trying to take anything away from Texas. They're the second best team in the country imo.
No problem saying Texas let up on the gas, because Ohio State could have scored 60 in both Tenn and Oregon games if Chip Kelly didn't call off the dogs in the 2nd half
I'm quickly becoming a believer in Chip Kelly as a play caller. The play calling in the last 2 games has been exceptional. I don't know what happened as far as the Michigan game but Chip has now been turned loose. He is making child's play of really good defenses. He is correctly diagnosing and calling. He has the personnel to do whatever he sees fit, and that personnel is executing to a high degree. I don't think he can be stopped. 42-20 Ohio State.
The model is actually going to be close. I think osu finds more than 26 pts though. The model simply cannot predict how much osu will score, but has done pretty well predicting how much they give up.
The trouble with using stats from the regular season is that teams can change during that season. Ohio State changed its defensive philosophy after Oregon and its offensive philosophy after Michigan. I think the 2 playoff games are relevant. OSU 38-24.
Hearing him compare the Michigan games between osu and Texas was completely asinine. Michigan rolled through like 4 starting QBs in their first couple games before finally figuring out their offensive identity late. In no world can you compare those two Michigan teams
@@ethanbates7734 yep and texas fans are doing the same. Its not relevant Oregon did the same thing to Michigan. I am convinced it was a teaching moment for the offense. they figured out what it took to run against the best D line in the nation (the one Michigan had) had to figure out a new strategy
@@ethanbates7734 Anyone who treats Michigan before their second bye like the Michigan that existed in the last month is dumb as shit. Michigan just handled Alabama without their 4 1st round picks on defense and Loveland on offense
I think he's putting too much faith in the inconsistency score which is basically a "Ohio State doesn't try too hard game planning in the regular season" score. Nebraska was a trap game (the ultimate one, really), right after Oregon and right before Penn State. I always hear about Nebraska, but those same people don't mention Iowa, who has a very similar D line. How'd OSU do in that game? Oh, 35-7, let's just pretend it didn't happen.
He claims to be data driven yet he admits they didn’t look at individual players. He also lets the anomaly game weigh much heavier on the scale. Almost going full Charlie Kelly, trying to connect the dots for Texas.
As a Buckeye fan, I find no fault with anyone doubting Ohio State to play at this elite of elite level after each blowout. That’s what make this run more impressive with each dominant win. The Cotton Bowl should be a close game, if it’s another Buckeye blowout, then it’s a third straight exception.
@@travismarshall4220 They didn't look like *this* throughout that run though. They had to come from being down 21-6 to beat Bama by 7 (which basically was the title game).
Both guys agree and reason this is the de facto Championship game. You also agree neither Penn State or Notre Dame can match OSUs talent. But Josh isn’t sure who will win. Of course you can’t ever be absolutely sure. But if Notre Dame crushed Georgia and Georgia beat Texas 2X. Then the above reasoning should lead you to believe that Ohio State shouldn’t have problem with Texas.
Very dumb to state that OSU passed at the normal rate vs Michigan. They attempted half of their passes on two 2 minute drills at the end of halves when Michigan knew they were passing. Please watch the games before commenting.
@@TheBBear86 I'm not convinced they bother watching the games, which I guess is implied with the name of their channel. But not everything is a spreadsheet.
The issue with the passing game against Michigan is that Howard was put in a box the entire game. Kelly put him in obvious passing downs where incompletions resulted in punts. He demanded that Howard bail him out of bad early down play calls which required Howard to play perfectly. This caused him to try and force plays that weren’t there resulting in mistakes. Letting howard play free is when he has been at his best all year
Josh clearly hasn't watched much Ohio State this year or he would know that they are a completely different football team today compared to every regular season game they played this year. Their own model is demonstrating this with the consistency score.
This is pure copium. "Texas hasnt played a full game".... Newsflash, at some point, what you are is what you are. They are going to have to play multiple levels above their best game this year to even simply compete with what OSU has brought the last two weeks. This is gonna be a slaughter
The Run pass ratio does it matter in the Ohio State game versus Michigan because their entire game plan was to run first and then pass after it was too late. And they were always put in bad passing situations. They were not playing the type of offense that they are playing in the playoffs right now and all of us can see that
One thing that’s different between this round versus the previous 2 is that there is only a week between games. The previous 2 games had 2 weeks to rest and prepare. I think that gives OSU the physical advantage due to the way they won their previous game.
Love how you're excusing some of Texas' running issues on missing some of their OL for the big games. OSU lost their starting LT Simmons in the first Oregon game and TreVeyon had about 7 ypc before the injury, afterwards OSU rushed for 19 yards on 12 carries. Then Michalski, the replacement LT, goes down in the very next game against Nebraska. Donovan Jackson, our starting LG, ends up sliding over to the LT spot and we have to put a new starter in the LG spot. And then our starting center goes down during midweek practice right before the Indiana game and only 1.5 weeks before THE GAME. Our interim starter at LG, Hinzman starts at center and OSU has to trot out a new face to fill in at the LG spot which is only vacant because our regular starter is playing LT with the two previous LTs out with injury. Playcalling issues, weird bounces (Howard fumbling out the back of the end zone as he's stretching for the goal line pylon vs Oregon is a play that could have been a TD and instead gave Oregon the ball as a touchback), and bad execution definitely played a part in some of those close wins and the loss against TTUN. Especially the playcalling. But you can't gloss over how much losing all of those OL within a such a short period really hurt OSU's offense. The playcalling has 100% seen a shift for the better, but they also had many weeks of practice to get their patchwork OL gelling together and that's definitely helped their offense look revitalized. OSU has been playing lights out against Tennessee and Oregon, but it's much easier to dominate when your line is performing well.
2:11 maybe that’s because espn is literally partners with the sec and has a very clear bias toward them. They also have a clear bias of ranking players that are committed to the sec higher.
Talking about the "grind" of Ohio State makes no sense considering they basically played one half the last two games. Texas defense just played 90 snaps last week and had a competitive game into the 4th quarter against Clemson. They have to be way more beat up. Texas did not just sleep walk through the last couple weeks, they still had to prepare as much as anyone.
I know Ohio State is getting all this love, but I'm super nervous as a buckeye fan. I just hope the coachling staff isn't letting this get to the teams head. Love the show guys! Go Bucks!
I know, I look at the teams and who and how they have played. I only see upside for Ohio State, but Texas is gonna come out firing especially with all this talk about them having no chance to win from a large majority of people
@@templar1060 LOL quin can throw for 300+ yards and you still lose to a team twice that cant get 100 yards of passing lol. But tell me how good is that defense
What makes you think OSU NEEDS to have an A+ game to beat Texas? And what logic could anyone use to trust Texas plays their best suddenly and OSU won’t when that’s all we’ve seen in the playoffs at this point?
@@CollegeFootballNerds How do you explain your comment on OSU passing at a normal clip against Michigan? Context matters, and half of their passes were in the 2 minute drill when everyone knew they had to pass. Do you guys watch the games at all?
@@Bono703 They clear don't. Ohio State threw it 12 times in 2 minute drill. Outside of that it was 21 passes to 26 runs. Another 6 passes were on 3rd and 6 or longer. Against a dominant run defense and a poor pass defense.
“Texas is the more talented team” - You are stat nerds but keep saying things that are not fact based. A quick lookup on rosters shows OSU and Texas at the top on roster talent. At best they are even where Oregon and Tennessee were a a step down (not bad by any means). But OSU has had better recruiting classes over the past 5 years and has more 5 stars in their top 25 players. Both have older / 4 star heavy starters versus average teams.
OSU has not given up a sack in the CFP...you all told us Tennessee and Oregon D lies were top 10 very good.... they didn't get a sniff. UM game is low hanging fruit.
Caleb Downs and Lathan Ransom are easily the best safety duo in the country and fun to watch especially when Lathan comes up and absolutely smacks running backs like he did with Tennessee's running back who I can't think of his name right now and Jordan James from Oregon he was just laying the wood to them.
@TristenCoon-bw3sn The OSU defense has knocked out the starting RBs of both teams they've played in the playoffs! And cracked a helmet! I've never seen that before!
Great preview as always, guys. Don't take anything in these comments personally. We're a bunch of homers that think our teams deserve props. Ohio State is tough to gauge and it's tough when you put your personal opinions out for the public to see. You can't make everyone happy, just call it like you see it, which I think you do.
It’s because Texas throws the ball more and Ewers ratio of pressures to sacks is much worse than Howard’s. On many plays where Howard would easily evade pressure, Ewers trips over his own feet
@tygribble I would say that's probably bad news for Texas fans as Ohio State has been getting quite a bit of pressure the last two games. The last d-line they faced similar to Ohio State was Georgia, who owns 13 of those 33 sacks between their two games. Whatever they are running on the back end seems to have been confusing the heck out DG and Nico because they were both holding the ball longer than they should have been. If Ewers doesn't bring his A game, he will be in for a long evening. DG is much more mobile than Ewers and he got sacked 8 times.
Ohio State HAS NOT been doing any "bootleg". To a fault Ohio State has thrown very few screen passes. The Tenn and Oregon D-Lines both had good D-linemen and the Ohio State O-line did not give up a sack in either game
I think Sark has some matchups he can take advantage of to close the gap. One of those is Gunner Helm. Gunner Helm was awesome against Michigan because he was a matchup nightmare for Michigan’s linebackers. I like him against OSU’s linebackers as well. I just hope Sark makes a point of going to him a lot because he tends to be forgotten at times in this offense. I think Texas runs better this game with Cam Williams back. He’s a better run blocker than a pass blocker so not having him in, definitely impacts our run game to his right side. With him back next to DJ who pancakes everyone when running, we should run better this game. Our Offensive Line starters are finally all back and back to being somewhat healthy.
Lololol I love that before that last Oregon game everyone thinks they were extremely talented and by far the best team, and now all of a sudden they were over rated. Ok
Everybody always does this whenever Ohio State embarrasses somebody and it's always been this way. Same thing happened with Tennessee weeks ago, everybody even people who weren't Tennessee fans like Michigan fans, Alabama fans, Georgia fans, Ole Miss fans, Florida fans etc... were saying that Tennessee was going to kick Ohio State's shit in and destroy Ohio State and plant they're flag etc etc... and after Ohio State whooped them the excuse by everybody was "Tennessee really wasn't ever good in the first place anyway, they were overrated and didn't play anybody outside of Georgia and lost" it's always an excuse with these people when Ohio State wins but when Ohio State loses they're all in talking they're shit because they're just massive Ohio State haters for no reason.
A couple of points that I think we either raised without needed context or weren't raised at all: On the OSU underperformed against Neb, we need the context that that was the first game after losing Josh Simmons at LT. They tried a line composition that was an object failure and outlier on the season. On OSU against UM, it's not the volume of passing that was an issue there. Josh raised the lack of deep throws, but it's more nuanced than just that. OSU ran on an extremely high percentage of first Downs, notably running between backup guards against top flight DTs. This was a coaching error that I don't see repeated...18 dives for like 22 yards still hurts. Smith in the slot, this wasn't really used until the playoffs and appears to have unlocked the new gear this offense can reach, especially on drags and shallow crosses breaking big. On the OSU OL, every game played is more time provided for this unit to gel. I don't think it's a top 5 OL, but I don't think this is the same OL Josh aligned. I am biased, but I haven't taken Texas seriously since the second UGA loss. OSU is about on par talent wise with UGA, and this UT team just couldn't get it done. Outside of the game in AA, I just have not seen Texas play a dominant game. One last point relevant to Sark and scripting, I'm not sure enough people are talking about how quickly OSU jumped on UT and UO. To Daniel's point, if Texas gets stopped early, it could get ugly. OSU jumping out to 17- and 34-point leads to start the playoof games likely rocked all plans and schemes the opponents had cooked up, but then OSU has tended to slow up a little in the middle to late game. If Texas can whether the early storm, they have every chance to win. I see something like 38-17, OSU. This relies, however, on Howard playing clean. If he has a couple goofs, a la PSU or UO game 1, I'm looking more 24-21.
Great post. Only thing I would add is the reason OSU has appeared to "slow up a little" in the middle to late game is because they are protecting the W. When they've wanted to answer a touchdown in the second half they've done so easily.
Texas lost to us twice. TWICE. Just saying. Considering how we looked against Notre Dame, that’s not a compliment. I like Ohio State to roll again. I don’t think there’s another team on their level right now. 34-13
It's amazing that they are saying "if Ohio State plays like they did against Penn State" as a potential for loss. You know, the game where Ohio State went on the road to one of the hardest places to play in the country against a top 5 team and didn't give up an offensive touchdown. Against a QB arguably as good or better than Ewers.
@@CollegeFootballNerds Agreed that Texas has more overall talent then Penn State. Agreed that Ohio State didn't play it's best game. They still won by 7 and did not allow an offensive touchdown. Penn State scored exactly 3 points from 5 minutes to go in 1st quarter until the end of the game. I would ask you, what evidence has Texas presented that they would have performed better than Ohio State in that environment?
@@CollegeFootballNerds Has Texas beaten a team as good as Penn State? What's their best win on the year? Clemson? The idea that a 7 point road win vs a top 5 team goes in Texas's favor makes no sense, and I usually agree with you guys.
The model is actually going to be close. I think osu finds more than 26 pts though. The model simply cannot predict how much osu will score, but has done pretty well predicting how much they give up. It doesnt take into account form- which i genuinely believe in…
I love watching you two shift the goal posts every week. You say Texas plays down to their potential, maybe, just maybe that is their potential. They are going to get exposed like every SEC team this off season.
Have you not been watching the playoffs? What y'all don't understand is that OSU will not play like they played against UM because they've completely changed their offensive scheme.
This episode was a perfect encapsulation of film nerds vs analytic nerds. Anyone who knows film and watches film has said the Ohio State offensive scheme has been drastically different than the one they ran in the regular season. And the tempo at which their offense is running at is wildly different. If the OSU team that played Oregon in October played the OSU team that just beat Oregon, they'd lose by 25+
@@bucksncat1997 If you watch the film of the first half of the Oregon game then you would know that Oregon blew coverage on every explosive play. They allowed motion to unbalanced looks and did not adjust on the scheme until the 2nd half. Also, they tackled like dog poo. Basically Oregon played its worst game of the season. Now, I still think Ohio St. wins by 10, but it could be a 17 to 7 game. We'll see.
@@MrRjsnowden That's just wrong, Emeka was in triple coverage and still caught a ball with one hand, that was good coverage but an even better play by the receiver. The Jeremiah Smith touchdown to put Ohio State up 24-0 in the 2nd quarter where he was literally yards and yards away from anybody else he hit the safety with a double move and made the safety completely turn his body... That was not blown coverage, it was the receivers simply being better than anybody in Oregon's second.
@TristenCoon-bw3sn Yeah @MrRjsnowden is coping hard. Jeremiah Smith caught a jump ball on Orgeon in triple coverage and I don't see things going much differently for Texas little DBs.
Josh’s football analysis has an even worse consistency rating than Ohio State 😂😂😂 “Texas defense is a beast” and the best Ohio State has faced. Bucks have faced ranked as follows. Indiana - 2nd PSU - 6th Tenn. - 7th Mich. - 11th Oregon - 15th Nebraska - 18th Iowa - 20th Meanwhile Texas has faced; Mich. - 11th Oklahoma - 19th Georgia - 30th Arizona St - 38th Kentucky - 44th A&M - 63rd Clemson - 69th …… all the way down to Miss St -125th In case y’all were confused Ohio St has best defense in country….. but yeah Texas is the defense to worry about! 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
I don't think you paid attention to the video. They called out Ohio St as the best defense. Texas in their model is number 2. So yeah go back and pay better attention.
@ and then proceeded to rant and rave about Texas defense and Ohio State hasn’t seen anything like it. Georgia’s 30th ranked D absolutely terrorized Texas into 2 losses. Buckeye defense is light years better than any defense Texas has seen.
I’m not expecting Ohio State to put up an A+ performance but I expect them to put up an A performance. As long as the defense plays with a killer mentality they’ll win. I have Ohio State winning 27-20.
17:35 Excellent, excellent point. If Texas falls behind 7-0, they are likely done. I think the first two drives will let us know whether Texas will keep it within one score or even win, or lose by 14-21. Matter of fact, the first drive of this game is so important relative to most any other game because of State’s ability to dominate the first qtr of their last two. If Texas gets a 3 and out on defense, or, Texas methodically moves down the field and scores a touchdown, I think that will cause Ohio State to come back down to earth and it should come down to the wire. I have a feeling that Texas will be able to move the ball against Ohio State. Maybe not 500+ yards, but in the high 300’s to the low 400’s.
Wow what incredible analaysis. Either Ohio State is gonna win big, or win close.... Or lose. My god this is hard hitting stuff. I guess if you just say anything and everything eventually you gotta be right 👍😅😅😅
Do you all do any research outside of looking at the stats? Referencing Ohio State's first game vs. Oregon as an example of them being potentially vulnerable makes zero sense. After the Oregon game OSU changed their defensive scheme and went away from single high concepts. Since then they've been dominant in every single game, including against good offenses. (PSU, Indiana, Tennessee, Oregon) No one has been able to score on Ohio State's defense in this form. Texas won't be able to score 20 points unless it's garbage time.
This is college football nerds. They crunch numbers and try to predict outcomes based on those numbers. But Ohio State’s in-season (in)consistency score makes every prediction less certain. I think the believe Ohio State wins but they can’t jump too far off their stats since it’s their model.
Hey let me start by saying I agree with you. Ohio state has mad many changes. I also think they will beat Texas by 10. However, Oregon played horribly in the first half allowing the big lead. They blew coverage assignments and could not set an edge to save their life in that game. Just saying they made Ohio St. "look" even better then they are. Tennessee is pretty much the same story. Blown assignment and poor tackling on defense.
@@KarenDawkins The inconsistency is because Ohio State made huge changes on defense after the Oregon game and on offense after the Michigan game. If they want to provide relevant analysis they need to go a little beyond pure numbers. Or at least look at windows of the season instead of aggregate everything.
@@MrRjsnowden Ohio State is forcing the blown assignments. The reason Oregon looked better in the second half is because OSU stopped trying to run it up, not because Oregon magically got better.
I want to start out by saying I'm a Buckeye Fan. I always try to see both sides of these games. I've watched alot of videos/analysis on this game. I just do not see how Texas wins this. Yes it can happen and college football can be very week to week. Will the Buckeyes come out like they have the past two weeks? Probably not, but I think they will stay motivated. Texas will not be able to run the ball. Any elite team can stop the run game, and that is what Ohio State has done all year. Penn St, Michigan, Tenn, Iowa. Every great running back on those teams have been shut down. That alone will change the game. Ohio States questionable OL has had great pass protection all year, I see that staying put. Even if they get a bit more pressure, Ohio State will adjust. Ohio State is fresh and from what I read, Texas is banged up and just played an OT game. Don't get me wrong, Texas COULD win this game, I just do not see it happening. 34-20 OSU
It all hinges on Howard taking care of the ball. Ohio State only has to do what they do. Texas will have to do things they haven’t done all year. Weird crap happens. The one consistency has been the D for OSU since the first Oregon game. Lights out. Can’t see anybody scoring more than 21 pts and that is counting for garbage time. Tough task to win with that low of a scoring ceiling. Go Bucks!
Sark said everyone is healthy on Texas and will have all of their starters for Friday. Texas has also stopped the run all year except for the ASU game and a huge chunk of those yards were qb scramble yards. OSU has a better chance to win but I wouldn't be surprised if it's a 3 point game going into the 4th quarter. Texas has an incredible defense. But when the offense can't stay on the field and then the defense has to play 100 plays, they're going to be exhausted and allow some explosive plays. That was the story in the ASU game.
@@FrostTylerLeavitt had 60 but Skattebo had 148 so I wouldn’t say a “huge” part of the running yards was the QB. I think Judkins and Henderson compare favorably to Skattebo
Great points about Sark and his script. He is so good with scripted plays coming out in the 1st half. I wish he would start 3rd quarters with scripted plays too. In other words develop two scripts - one for the first few series in the first half and one for the first few series of the 3rd quarter.
So Josh's closing remark is that if OSU plays the way they played against 3 or 4 teams they lose. If Texas plays the way they played against any team besides Michigan they lose.
OSU, played into the game style of the Nebraska, Michigan and Penn State contests and won against Texas. I think it's time we start giving some credit to this team.
Once again, we have to hear that the team that OSU destroyed really wasn't that good. I'm sure if they destroy Texas and ND/PSU Josh will just say there weren't any good teams this year.
This run in the playoffs is who Ohio State is. The problem they had was throughout the entire regular season, they played not to lose instead of playing to win and after the Michigan game a switch was flipped and they started playing to their potential. Pedal to the floor, balls to the wall. If they come out this Friday with a mindset to play to win, they cant be stopped. If they play not to lose, they surely will.
Caleb Downs is the most insanely talented safety ive personally seen play the game since Ed Reed... Jeremiah Smith is the the most talented young WR ive seen play the game since R Moss at Marshall (i grew up 45 mins from Marshall campus so i got to see alot of Moss back then).
I definitely think Texas gets blown out, Ohio state is on a death march to a natty. That’s a foregone conclusion in my mind, and my focus is more on the fact that expansionists were so thrilled with inclusion and the feel good side of a 12 team playoff. I just find it hilarious the initial result is going to be a blue blood with the best roster by a mile fooled around in the regular season and dominated the playoff. We let NFL/fantasy/casual viewers dominate the narrative around CFB and it backfired immediately. Anyone who actually follows CFB knew this would be the result. I’m a fan of NIL in theory and think there’s a way to be fair to players, but everyone thought transfers and NIL would raise the field and hurt the top, when in reality it is just going to make elite teams even more elite.
This is a great point. The lower ranked Power Four teams and the Group of Five teams are going to be like the minor leagues for the blue bloods, with the occasional five star leaving a big program to follow the money
@@blankname6629 thanks grammar nazi, It’s obviously a tongue and cheek comment. Merriam-Webster: a march (as of prisoners of war) in which those unable to go on are left to die as they fall. Ohio state is killing everyone they’ve played in the playoff and I assume they’ll continue to.
Josh - Ohio States line isn’t very good. Since McLaughlin went down, sacks allowed and rushing yards; vs Indiana - 0 / 116 vs Michigan - 0 / 77 vs Tennessee - 0 / 157 vs Oregon - 0 / 184 Also “Texas defense is a beast” …… meanwhile back in reality torched for 1000 yards last two games because they didn’t take them seriously…… 😂😂😂😂 GTFOH
After playing Penn State, Oregon twice, Michigan & Tennessee Ohio State won't be shocked by the talent & speed of Texas..this game will be about execution. Texas hasn't seen anything close to Ohio State's offense.
I truly love this channel. Been watching and liking every video since 2017. Recently stopped watching Pate, not a conscious decision but just can’t stand the “everyone and everything is great all the time” thing he does, to the point that idk if he believes anything he ever says. You guys shoot it straight and say your opinions, without being rude or being scared to be wrong. Love all the content yall put out and wish yall had the numbers that Pate gets.
@8bitbanana they havent been consistent for sure. The interesting thing is that OSU just started playing lights out 2 games ago so you never know. With that said, we'll find out.
The model is predicting essentially the same as it did for oregon. And that score is pretty close to the Tennessee game. I think its pretty fair to say its within a decent confidence interval for the defense that osu allows… but not great at osu offense
I have no reason to think that the Ohio State offense we have seen the last two games will not show up on Friday. Maybe Texas is good enough to slow them down a bit. But then Texas has to score points on an Ohio State defense that does not give up many points to teams not named Ducks. Give the points; take the Buckeyes.
Big Notre Dame fan, and quite frankly, I think you guys are correct about us. We do not have the talent to knock off OSU or Texas if they play their A game. But I have hope. I would not put money on us beating OSU, for sure, but I do think we could knock off Texas. If Texas can somehow manage to beat the buzzsaw that seems to be OSU at this point in the season, then I think ND can beat them. If OSU runs through Texas, and we manage to go on to the Natty, I think we will get flattened. But then again, sometimes, weird things happen.
I don't think Notre Dame can beat Texas if Texas plays mistake free. But a special teams TD or turnover and it's anyone's game. And Ewers *loves* to make mistakes in big games and especially against elite defenses.
OSU fan here but Don't see Notre Dame scoring more than 13-14 points on Penn State without special teams or big defensive play setting up for easy points like in the Sugar. Penn State is more sound than Georgia, imo just as a good of a defense..a better running back duo..a WR comin gup in Evans & a monster Tight End.
I'm worried about all the money on OSU and Texas can definitely win this but against the top half of the SEC they scored 15 and 16 against UGA in regulation and 17 vs A&M. 3 games vs the top half of the conference. Not very tested and still couldn't score 20 points.
Not really a spoiler when you don't like PSU. Lmao no PSU fan is gonna ever expect Josh to pick the team or say anything half decent. Can't wait for the video 😂
“If Ohio St plays like they did vs Nebraska, PSU, NW, MSU, or Michigan they’ll lose”……. vs Nebraska - 21-17 / 285 yards vs PSU - 20-13 / 358 yards vs NW - 31-7 / 420 yards vs MSU - 38-7 / 486 yards vs Michigan - 10-13 / 252 / 2 TO / 0 sacks Meanwhile Georgia in their 2 wins vs Texas Game 1 - 30-15 / 283 / 3 TO / 1 sacks Game 2 - 22-19 / 277 / 2 TO / 3 sacks So literally all Ohio State has to do is play their worst game and can STILL beat Texas! Yes Texas offense played horrible in those games. Georgia defense doesn’t hold a candle to Buckeyes defense. Josh I’m hammering you in this comment section cause this was some next level terrible analysis in this video from you.
My man said Osu defence didn't play that good against Oregon then turns around and said Osu played A+ game.. Can't be both ways young fellas. Come on now
When I run the model it is different than what you showed in this video. I would think not much has changed since then. The model now shows OSU 27.5 to 16.5. And all the unit vs unit data is all green on the OSU side. But a point to the people who did the seeding, how does it feel that none, NONE, not one top seed made it to the top 4.
Ohio State 45 - Texas 10 When you're hot you're hot. Ohio State has had the talent the entire year - Day/Knowles/Kelly finally caught up in terms of game planning and management.
The Texas offense has real weaknesses that will be their undoing against an elite team. They’ve had redzone issues and are about to go against the best redzone D in the country. Their run game has been very hit or miss lately. They’ve given up 33 sacks. They get penalized a lot. Their offense frequently goes into black holes in the middle of the game. Their D will probably play well but they will get gassed because the O cant sustain drives.
Who has Texas beat and lost to? Also Texas has the best total defense but they don’t have the best DL we’ve played. Games are won up front and you’re ignoring what OSU did to Oregon who has a better DL.
I’m just not sure how Texas gets to 27. Both tackles are banged up and OSU’s ends are on an absolute tear. The only offense Oregon and Tennessee were able to generate at all was Gabriel and Nico running for their lives long enough to find someone open on a broken play. Ewers simply can’t do that. The numbers may not tell the story on this one. OSU annihilated Tennessee and Oregon and didn’t even have a turnover in either game. Those games looked bad enough, but frankly, they could have been even worse. If OSU shows up, I don’t think anyone can keep it close with them.
I was at the rose bowl it could have been a lot worse...Oregon got completely smashed...
Howard had 1 interception against Tennessee. It was the play where He threw to Smith in the end zone, ball was tipped and caught as the Tenn player went out of bounds.
@ sorry I meant they didn’t force a turnover. In 2 games they combined to go -1 in TO margin and still won by a ton. Imagine how bad it gets when they go positive.
People aren't talking about that enough. OSU is getting teams out of there by the 2nd quarter off unbelivable offensive execution and sound/dominant defense..but they haven't even gotten any turnovers in the playoffs (yet). Caleb Downs had two (albeit difficult catches) interceptions through his hands & Cody Simon nearly missed a pick six in the Rose Bowl. If they start getting a few of those look out! Wouldn't count on Downs not making those plays in this game.
Oregon is the only team to get above 17 on Ohio State. I agree, I don't think the Texas offense can get to 27. The closest thing they've seen to the OSU defense is Georgia and they scored 34 total in 2 games. OSU's D is better than UGA.
Solid analysis.
W/o the self inflicted penalties, OSU smashes Texas.
Suddenly Oregon isn’t so dominant. But Texas (2 losses to UGA) is the juggernaut… 😂
😂😂
Who said Texas is the juggernaut
It's like boxing styles makes fights can also be said in college football
@@elimendoza820 Ohio State would be 3 touchdown favorites over Arizona State & Clemson today. While Oregon would still be favorites over Texas.
lol agreed! Comical how quickly everyone has gone from Oregon being the best to completely disregarding them. 😂
Ignoring Playoffs just to refer back to the regular season worst games for Ohio State as evidence of something is the reason why you picked Oregon to win.
He's sounds dumber and dumber each week.
Correct. X and O guys have been ranting and raving about OSUs changes to their offensive game-plan.
Some people never learn. Day ALWAYS has passing schemes for the playoffs. That's why Georgia was losing by 20 in '22. Too bad Marv got hurt (/targeted), he'd already have a championship.
@tehhammer you didn't lose because a receiver got hurt
@@johnnyoldenjr.that isn't what he said. 22 Is the year 2022
Howard is the #2 ranked QB in the country, Ewers is #20. Howard has completed 75% of his passes and has completed 80% five times. He had one bad game, when he was concussed.
Someone actually has sense. Tired of the Howard haters.
The fact Josh says it’s gonna be close and Ohio State can’t keep up their dominance lets me know it’s going to be a blow out
I have to remind myself that Josh is a lawyer and practices just talking for long periods of time whether he's right or not.
@@NopeNopeNopeNotGonnaHappenso that's the problem....like HR and Hospital administrators...worthless.
OSU struggles need to be looked at outside the stats. They aligned to (1) two significant injuries on the O line. Lost OT in Oregon and its best blocking TE too. Next game was Nebraska. Going into Michigan dealing with loss of Center. Those two linemen were playing at all American level. (2) Michigan play calling didn’t make sense. They won’t repeat that. (3) Freshman Jeremiah Smith at the beginning of the year was really good and Smith at the end of his Freshman year is the best a first round draft pick.
Biggest question I have is can Texas DBs who are much better than Oregon and Tennessee players close the gap to keep first half close.
Cool story bro
@@ml1754didn’t realize lawyers are worthless…
OSU fan just coming back to give you guys your flowers. You were right about how competitive this game would be and how Texas previously played down. Didn't agree with any of it initially, but sirs, you were right. #GoBucks!!
Not really though, I went back and counted 5 drives that, if our receivers didn't drop balls in their hands or we didn't have drive ending penalties we probably score.
It could have easily been a 35 or 42 to 14 game. Texas also can claim some of the same but this was a game of two teams beating themselves, great defense and then Sawyer putting an end to it.
@@jaysonp9426I think all of that is probably more right than wrong but I still think we saw a very good performance from Texas' defense. The coverage was super solid for the majority of the game. Saw maybe 2 busts in coverage the entire game (one being the 75 yard screen play). Have to give them credit for that when they were facing a high powered offense and pretty good offensive scheme all night.
@@jaysonp9426also, I think we can agree that Texas looked significantly better on defense than they did in the ASU game.
@@80zBaby absolutely, I was extremely impressed with Texas's defense, especially in the 2nd half. Some of those coverages and blitzes were extremely well masked and confusing. Def not trying to take anything away from Texas. They're the second best team in the country imo.
No problem saying Texas let up on the gas, because Ohio State could have scored 60 in both Tenn and Oregon games if Chip Kelly didn't call off the dogs in the 2nd half
I'm quickly becoming a believer in Chip Kelly as a play caller. The play calling in the last 2 games has been exceptional. I don't know what happened as far as the Michigan game but Chip has now been turned loose. He is making child's play of really good defenses. He is correctly diagnosing and calling. He has the personnel to do whatever he sees fit, and that personnel is executing to a high degree. I don't think he can be stopped. 42-20 Ohio State.
The model is actually going to be close. I think osu finds more than 26 pts though.
The model simply cannot predict how much osu will score, but has done pretty well predicting how much they give up.
The trouble with using stats from the regular season is that teams can change during that season. Ohio State changed its defensive philosophy after Oregon and its offensive philosophy after Michigan. I think the 2 playoff games are relevant. OSU 38-24.
Hearing him compare the Michigan games between osu and Texas was completely asinine. Michigan rolled through like 4 starting QBs in their first couple games before finally figuring out their offensive identity late. In no world can you compare those two Michigan teams
@@ethanbates7734 yep and texas fans are doing the same. Its not relevant Oregon did the same thing to Michigan. I am convinced it was a teaching moment for the offense. they figured out what it took to run against the best D line in the nation (the one Michigan had) had to figure out a new strategy
@@ethanbates7734 Anyone who treats Michigan before their second bye like the Michigan that existed in the last month is dumb as shit. Michigan just handled Alabama without their 4 1st round picks on defense and Loveland on offense
Josh will doubt Ohio State to the very end. He's probably still talking about their tackles.
I think he's putting too much faith in the inconsistency score which is basically a "Ohio State doesn't try too hard game planning in the regular season" score. Nebraska was a trap game (the ultimate one, really), right after Oregon and right before Penn State. I always hear about Nebraska, but those same people don't mention Iowa, who has a very similar D line. How'd OSU do in that game? Oh, 35-7, let's just pretend it didn't happen.
@@tehhammer josh is well known for ignoring results that don't fit the narrative.
@@tehhammer Hearing him talk about OSU being inconsistent when Texas has been the most inconsistent team in the cfp is kinda funny
lol Buckeye oline so terrible they haven’t given up a sack in last 4 games and have rushed for 116, 77 (Mich), 157, 187 in those games.
He claims to be data driven yet he admits they didn’t look at individual players. He also lets the anomaly game weigh much heavier on the scale. Almost going full Charlie Kelly, trying to connect the dots for Texas.
As a Buckeye fan, I find no fault with anyone doubting Ohio State to play at this elite of elite level after each blowout. That’s what make this run more impressive with each dominant win. The Cotton Bowl should be a close game, if it’s another Buckeye blowout, then it’s a third straight exception.
2014 OSU went on a 3 game run, I believe
@@travismarshall4220 They didn't look like *this* throughout that run though. They had to come from being down 21-6 to beat Bama by 7 (which basically was the title game).
Both guys agree and reason this is the de facto Championship game. You also agree neither Penn State or Notre Dame can match OSUs talent.
But Josh isn’t sure who will win.
Of course you can’t ever be absolutely sure. But if Notre Dame crushed Georgia and Georgia beat Texas 2X. Then the above reasoning should lead you to believe that Ohio State shouldn’t have problem with Texas.
@EulogyfortheAngels True, but they were dominating Bama otherwise even when they went down 21-6, it was their own mistakes that got them in a hole.
@@EulogyfortheAngels They shouldn't have been down 21-6 in that game. But after going down 21-6 they DOMINATED
Very dumb to state that OSU passed at the normal rate vs Michigan. They attempted half of their passes on two 2 minute drills at the end of halves when Michigan knew they were passing. Please watch the games before commenting.
And it was on late downs.
@@TheBBear86 I'm not convinced they bother watching the games, which I guess is implied with the name of their channel. But not everything is a spreadsheet.
The issue with the passing game against Michigan is that Howard was put in a box the entire game. Kelly put him in obvious passing downs where incompletions resulted in punts. He demanded that Howard bail him out of bad early down play calls which required Howard to play perfectly. This caused him to try and force plays that weren’t there resulting in mistakes. Letting howard play free is when he has been at his best all year
Damn. Y’all’s model killed it.
So now all the sudden Oregon is mid after one game. 😂 Happens every time after OSU wins these games.
“Texas in terms of talent is a much more talented team overall than osu has faced” - college football nerds 2025.
Every single year vs penn state and when we were dominating scUM pre-cheating
Josh clearly hasn't watched much Ohio State this year or he would know that they are a completely different football team today compared to every regular season game they played this year. Their own model is demonstrating this with the consistency score.
This is pure copium. "Texas hasnt played a full game".... Newsflash, at some point, what you are is what you are. They are going to have to play multiple levels above their best game this year to even simply compete with what OSU has brought the last two weeks.
This is gonna be a slaughter
The Run pass ratio does it matter in the Ohio State game versus Michigan because their entire game plan was to run first and then pass after it was too late. And they were always put in bad passing situations.
They were not playing the type of offense that they are playing in the playoffs right now and all of us can see that
One thing that’s different between this round versus the previous 2 is that there is only a week between games. The previous 2 games had 2 weeks to rest and prepare. I think that gives OSU the physical advantage due to the way they won their previous game.
That's a great point. However, the time off is effectively the same as a bye.
Love how you're excusing some of Texas' running issues on missing some of their OL for the big games. OSU lost their starting LT Simmons in the first Oregon game and TreVeyon had about 7 ypc before the injury, afterwards OSU rushed for 19 yards on 12 carries. Then Michalski, the replacement LT, goes down in the very next game against Nebraska. Donovan Jackson, our starting LG, ends up sliding over to the LT spot and we have to put a new starter in the LG spot. And then our starting center goes down during midweek practice right before the Indiana game and only 1.5 weeks before THE GAME. Our interim starter at LG, Hinzman starts at center and OSU has to trot out a new face to fill in at the LG spot which is only vacant because our regular starter is playing LT with the two previous LTs out with injury.
Playcalling issues, weird bounces (Howard fumbling out the back of the end zone as he's stretching for the goal line pylon vs Oregon is a play that could have been a TD and instead gave Oregon the ball as a touchback), and bad execution definitely played a part in some of those close wins and the loss against TTUN. Especially the playcalling. But you can't gloss over how much losing all of those OL within a such a short period really hurt OSU's offense. The playcalling has 100% seen a shift for the better, but they also had many weeks of practice to get their patchwork OL gelling together and that's definitely helped their offense look revitalized. OSU has been playing lights out against Tennessee and Oregon, but it's much easier to dominate when your line is performing well.
2:11 maybe that’s because espn is literally partners with the sec and has a very clear bias toward them. They also have a clear bias of ranking players that are committed to the sec higher.
Talking about the "grind" of Ohio State makes no sense considering they basically played one half the last two games. Texas defense just played 90 snaps last week and had a competitive game into the 4th quarter against Clemson. They have to be way more beat up. Texas did not just sleep walk through the last couple weeks, they still had to prepare as much as anyone.
I know Ohio State is getting all this love, but I'm super nervous as a buckeye fan. I just hope the coachling staff isn't letting this get to the teams head. Love the show guys! Go Bucks!
Dont be. Texas cannot finish games at all.
Bro don't be nervous......it's time
I know, I look at the teams and who and how they have played. I only see upside for Ohio State, but Texas is gonna come out firing especially with all this talk about them having no chance to win from a large majority of people
@ i think “all this talk” is not happening in texas.
Dudes. Tx almost gave up 1000 yards in the last 2 games against playoff competition. The big bad TX defense?😂😂😂😂
people keep ignoring that and I cant believe it. Their stats are padded from their cupcake schedule
Yeah Texas is flawless according to this dude
Thank you. Facts matter
And OSU went from mediocre to super status?
Give us a break
@@templar1060 LOL quin can throw for 300+ yards and you still lose to a team twice that cant get 100 yards of passing lol. But tell me how good is that defense
What makes you think OSU NEEDS to have an A+ game to beat Texas? And what logic could anyone use to trust Texas plays their best suddenly and OSU won’t when that’s all we’ve seen in the playoffs at this point?
They don't
@@CollegeFootballNerds How do you explain your comment on OSU passing at a normal clip against Michigan? Context matters, and half of their passes were in the 2 minute drill when everyone knew they had to pass. Do you guys watch the games at all?
@@Bono703 They clear don't. Ohio State threw it 12 times in 2 minute drill. Outside of that it was 21 passes to 26 runs. Another 6 passes were on 3rd and 6 or longer. Against a dominant run defense and a poor pass defense.
“Texas is the more talented team” - You are stat nerds but keep saying things that are not fact based. A quick lookup on rosters shows OSU and Texas at the top on roster talent. At best they are even where Oregon and Tennessee were a a step down (not bad by any means). But OSU has had better recruiting classes over the past 5 years and has more 5 stars in their top 25 players. Both have older / 4 star heavy starters versus average teams.
OSU has not given up a sack in the CFP...you all told us Tennessee and Oregon D lies were top 10 very good.... they didn't get a sniff. UM game is low hanging fruit.
Then so is Arizona State ... works both ways see 😂
Did u say Texas might have the best safety of the country?! Good lord my guy. If downs played in the sec you 100 percent would not say that.
Caleb Downs and Lathan Ransom are easily the best safety duo in the country and fun to watch especially when Lathan comes up and absolutely smacks running backs like he did with Tennessee's running back who I can't think of his name right now and Jordan James from Oregon he was just laying the wood to them.
The funny part is Downs literally played in the sec last year and was the best safety as a freshman lol
@@techlorknight338 I mean I know that. Surely the guy in the video does not lol
@TristenCoon-bw3sn The OSU defense has knocked out the starting RBs of both teams they've played in the playoffs! And cracked a helmet! I've never seen that before!
@@RickyBullock Yup them boys hitting and they're hitting hard, and I like it.
Great preview as always, guys. Don't take anything in these comments personally. We're a bunch of homers that think our teams deserve props. Ohio State is tough to gauge and it's tough when you put your personal opinions out for the public to see. You can't make everyone happy, just call it like you see it, which I think you do.
No, they are inconsistent and blatantly inaccurate in their analysis and are being called out.
It’s interesting that Texas has given up 33 sacks this season and Ohio State has only given up 12. Is their o-line actually that good?
It’s because Texas throws the ball more and Ewers ratio of pressures to sacks is much worse than Howard’s. On many plays where Howard would easily evade pressure, Ewers trips over his own feet
@tygribble I would say that's probably bad news for Texas fans as Ohio State has been getting quite a bit of pressure the last two games. The last d-line they faced similar to Ohio State was Georgia, who owns 13 of those 33 sacks between their two games. Whatever they are running on the back end seems to have been confusing the heck out DG and Nico because they were both holding the ball longer than they should have been. If Ewers doesn't bring his A game, he will be in for a long evening. DG is much more mobile than Ewers and he got sacked 8 times.
Ohio State HAS NOT been doing any "bootleg". To a fault Ohio State has thrown very few screen passes. The Tenn and Oregon D-Lines both had good D-linemen and the Ohio State O-line did not give up a sack in either game
I just rolled my eyes when he said that. Doesn’t sound like he watches OSU
I think Sark has some matchups he can take advantage of to close the gap. One of those is Gunner Helm. Gunner Helm was awesome against Michigan because he was a matchup nightmare for Michigan’s linebackers. I like him against OSU’s linebackers as well. I just hope Sark makes a point of going to him a lot because he tends to be forgotten at times in this offense.
I think Texas runs better this game with Cam Williams back. He’s a better run blocker than a pass blocker so not having him in, definitely impacts our run game to his right side. With him back next to DJ who pancakes everyone when running, we should run better this game.
Our Offensive Line starters are finally all back and back to being somewhat healthy.
Yeah the same guys that kept Tyler Warren in a seat belt all game. Gunner Helm might not be a factor at all.
Lololol I love that before that last Oregon game everyone thinks they were extremely talented and by far the best team, and now all of a sudden they were over rated. Ok
This.
Everybody always does this whenever Ohio State embarrasses somebody and it's always been this way. Same thing happened with Tennessee weeks ago, everybody even people who weren't Tennessee fans like Michigan fans, Alabama fans, Georgia fans, Ole Miss fans, Florida fans etc... were saying that Tennessee was going to kick Ohio State's shit in and destroy Ohio State and plant they're flag etc etc... and after Ohio State whooped them the excuse by everybody was "Tennessee really wasn't ever good in the first place anyway, they were overrated and didn't play anybody outside of Georgia and lost" it's always an excuse with these people when Ohio State wins but when Ohio State loses they're all in talking they're shit because they're just massive Ohio State haters for no reason.
@TristenCoon-bw3sn They hate us 'cause they ain't us!
@@RickyBullock Exactly 💯
A couple of points that I think we either raised without needed context or weren't raised at all:
On the OSU underperformed against Neb, we need the context that that was the first game after losing Josh Simmons at LT. They tried a line composition that was an object failure and outlier on the season.
On OSU against UM, it's not the volume of passing that was an issue there. Josh raised the lack of deep throws, but it's more nuanced than just that. OSU ran on an extremely high percentage of first Downs, notably running between backup guards against top flight DTs. This was a coaching error that I don't see repeated...18 dives for like 22 yards still hurts.
Smith in the slot, this wasn't really used until the playoffs and appears to have unlocked the new gear this offense can reach, especially on drags and shallow crosses breaking big.
On the OSU OL, every game played is more time provided for this unit to gel. I don't think it's a top 5 OL, but I don't think this is the same OL Josh aligned.
I am biased, but I haven't taken Texas seriously since the second UGA loss. OSU is about on par talent wise with UGA, and this UT team just couldn't get it done. Outside of the game in AA, I just have not seen Texas play a dominant game.
One last point relevant to Sark and scripting, I'm not sure enough people are talking about how quickly OSU jumped on UT and UO. To Daniel's point, if Texas gets stopped early, it could get ugly. OSU jumping out to 17- and 34-point leads to start the playoof games likely rocked all plans and schemes the opponents had cooked up, but then OSU has tended to slow up a little in the middle to late game. If Texas can whether the early storm, they have every chance to win.
I see something like 38-17, OSU. This relies, however, on Howard playing clean. If he has a couple goofs, a la PSU or UO game 1, I'm looking more 24-21.
Great post. Only thing I would add is the reason OSU has appeared to "slow up a little" in the middle to late game is because they are protecting the W. When they've wanted to answer a touchdown in the second half they've done so easily.
You had us waiting!!!!!
Nobody will never mimic the psychological factor of Michigan.
Texas vs Michigan was the 1st game of the season… Lots have changed since.
Second.
2nd
Texas played Colorado State in week one.
@@utspoh1 lol, first or second, makes no difference. That was an eternity ago. Michigan improved down the stretch and just beat Bama.
@@supirman oregon also did the same thing to Michigan as texas late in the season
Josh was dead ass wrong about his “gut feeling” last week lmao
Texas stats are bloated.
Texas lost to us twice. TWICE. Just saying. Considering how we looked against Notre Dame, that’s not a compliment. I like Ohio State to roll again. I don’t think there’s another team on their level right now. 34-13
Texas was 1 field goal away from beating yall the 2nd time around - don't overlook that
It's amazing that they are saying "if Ohio State plays like they did against Penn State" as a potential for loss. You know, the game where Ohio State went on the road to one of the hardest places to play in the country against a top 5 team and didn't give up an offensive touchdown. Against a QB arguably as good or better than Ewers.
Texas is better than Penn State. Ohio State didn't play great that day.
@@CollegeFootballNerds Agreed that Texas has more overall talent then Penn State. Agreed that Ohio State didn't play it's best game. They still won by 7 and did not allow an offensive touchdown. Penn State scored exactly 3 points from 5 minutes to go in 1st quarter until the end of the game. I would ask you, what evidence has Texas presented that they would have performed better than Ohio State in that environment?
@@CollegeFootballNerds Has Texas beaten a team as good as Penn State? What's their best win on the year? Clemson? The idea that a 7 point road win vs a top 5 team goes in Texas's favor makes no sense, and I usually agree with you guys.
@@CollegeFootballNerds 🤦♂️
@@CollegeFootballNerds Why do you say that? Because Texas played by far the weakest schedule in the BAD SEC?
The model is actually going to be close. I think osu finds more than 26 pts though.
The model simply cannot predict how much osu will score, but has done pretty well predicting how much they give up.
It doesnt take into account form- which i genuinely believe in…
I love watching you two shift the goal posts every week. You say Texas plays down to their potential, maybe, just maybe that is their potential. They are going to get exposed like every SEC team this off season.
Yup...
They've shown who they are/were.
Arizona State scores 30+ on Texas. But Ohio State will struggle…. K
Josh is struggling with facts.
Glad to see you guys cutting against the grain a bit here. Makes me feel a bit better going into this game.
Have you not been watching the playoffs? What y'all don't understand is that OSU will not play like they played against UM because they've completely changed their offensive scheme.
This episode was a perfect encapsulation of film nerds vs analytic nerds. Anyone who knows film and watches film has said the Ohio State offensive scheme has been drastically different than the one they ran in the regular season. And the tempo at which their offense is running at is wildly different. If the OSU team that played Oregon in October played the OSU team that just beat Oregon, they'd lose by 25+
@@bucksncat1997 If you watch the film of the first half of the Oregon game then you would know that Oregon blew coverage on every explosive play. They allowed motion to unbalanced looks and did not adjust on the scheme until the 2nd half. Also, they tackled like dog poo. Basically Oregon played its worst game of the season. Now, I still think Ohio St. wins by 10, but it could be a 17 to 7 game. We'll see.
@@MrRjsnowden That's just wrong, Emeka was in triple coverage and still caught a ball with one hand, that was good coverage but an even better play by the receiver. The Jeremiah Smith touchdown to put Ohio State up 24-0 in the 2nd quarter where he was literally yards and yards away from anybody else he hit the safety with a double move and made the safety completely turn his body... That was not blown coverage, it was the receivers simply being better than anybody in Oregon's second.
@TristenCoon-bw3sn Yeah @MrRjsnowden is coping hard. Jeremiah Smith caught a jump ball on Orgeon in triple coverage and I don't see things going much differently for Texas little DBs.
@@RickyBullock Yeah
Daniel was on it with 31-17. Nice prediction. The model was pretty good too.
37-17 OSU. OSU’s defense is playing out of their minds and Uber-talented
Are you guys gonna do the Penn state Norte dame game?
I can hear it in Josh’s voice even though he qualifies his pick I can hear in that slight tremor he would really like to see Ohio State loose.
Model cooked, coming for flower shower! Hard on yall but also will give credit where credit is due!
These guys hate picking OSU!
Josh’s football analysis has an even worse consistency rating than Ohio State 😂😂😂
“Texas defense is a beast” and the best Ohio State has faced. Bucks have faced ranked as follows.
Indiana - 2nd
PSU - 6th
Tenn. - 7th
Mich. - 11th
Oregon - 15th
Nebraska - 18th
Iowa - 20th
Meanwhile Texas has faced;
Mich. - 11th
Oklahoma - 19th
Georgia - 30th
Arizona St - 38th
Kentucky - 44th
A&M - 63rd
Clemson - 69th
…… all the way down to Miss St -125th
In case y’all were confused Ohio St has best defense in country….. but yeah Texas is the defense to worry about!
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
I don't think you paid attention to the video. They called out Ohio St as the best defense. Texas in their model is number 2. So yeah go back and pay better attention.
@ and then proceeded to rant and rave about Texas defense and Ohio State hasn’t seen anything like it. Georgia’s 30th ranked D absolutely terrorized Texas into 2 losses. Buckeye defense is light years better than any defense Texas has seen.
I’m not expecting Ohio State to put up an A+ performance but I expect them to put up an A performance. As long as the defense plays with a killer mentality they’ll win. I have Ohio State winning 27-20.
17:35 Excellent, excellent point. If Texas falls behind 7-0, they are likely done. I think the first two drives will let us know whether Texas will keep it within one score or even win, or lose by 14-21. Matter of fact, the first drive of this game is so important relative to most any other game because of State’s ability to dominate the first qtr of their last two. If Texas gets a 3 and out on defense, or, Texas methodically moves down the field and scores a touchdown, I think that will cause Ohio State to come back down to earth and it should come down to the wire.
I have a feeling that Texas will be able to move the ball against Ohio State. Maybe not 500+ yards, but in the high 300’s to the low 400’s.
Howard is #3 in pass efficiency
Ewers is #23
Howard is 72.6% 32 TD 9 INT
Ewers id 66.5% 29 TD 11 INT
I would say Howard has been consistent.
Wow what incredible analaysis. Either Ohio State is gonna win big, or win close.... Or lose. My god this is hard hitting stuff. I guess if you just say anything and everything eventually you gotta be right 👍😅😅😅
😂😂😂
Supertramp wrote a song about these guys, anybody know the name of it?
Goodbye Stranger?
Bloody Well Right
Texas D was very good. The backend was excellent. Both defense. Both offenses ran into problems they both experienced during season. Good call
Do you all do any research outside of looking at the stats? Referencing Ohio State's first game vs. Oregon as an example of them being potentially vulnerable makes zero sense. After the Oregon game OSU changed their defensive scheme and went away from single high concepts. Since then they've been dominant in every single game, including against good offenses. (PSU, Indiana, Tennessee, Oregon) No one has been able to score on Ohio State's defense in this form. Texas won't be able to score 20 points unless it's garbage time.
This is college football nerds. They crunch numbers and try to predict outcomes based on those numbers. But Ohio State’s in-season (in)consistency score makes every prediction less certain. I think the believe Ohio State wins but they can’t jump too far off their stats since it’s their model.
Hey let me start by saying I agree with you. Ohio state has mad many changes. I also think they will beat Texas by 10. However, Oregon played horribly in the first half allowing the big lead. They blew coverage assignments and could not set an edge to save their life in that game. Just saying they made Ohio St. "look" even better then they are. Tennessee is pretty much the same story. Blown assignment and poor tackling on defense.
@@KarenDawkins The inconsistency is because Ohio State made huge changes on defense after the Oregon game and on offense after the Michigan game. If they want to provide relevant analysis they need to go a little beyond pure numbers. Or at least look at windows of the season instead of aggregate everything.
@@MrRjsnowden Ohio State is forcing the blown assignments. The reason Oregon looked better in the second half is because OSU stopped trying to run it up, not because Oregon magically got better.
@yessum44 I know that. I was only talking about first half.
I want to start out by saying I'm a Buckeye Fan. I always try to see both sides of these games. I've watched alot of videos/analysis on this game. I just do not see how Texas wins this. Yes it can happen and college football can be very week to week. Will the Buckeyes come out like they have the past two weeks? Probably not, but I think they will stay motivated. Texas will not be able to run the ball. Any elite team can stop the run game, and that is what Ohio State has done all year. Penn St, Michigan, Tenn, Iowa. Every great running back on those teams have been shut down. That alone will change the game. Ohio States questionable OL has had great pass protection all year, I see that staying put. Even if they get a bit more pressure, Ohio State will adjust.
Ohio State is fresh and from what I read, Texas is banged up and just played an OT game. Don't get me wrong, Texas COULD win this game, I just do not see it happening. 34-20 OSU
It all hinges on Howard taking care of the ball. Ohio State only has to do what they do. Texas will have to do things they haven’t done all year. Weird crap happens. The one consistency has been the D for OSU since the first Oregon game. Lights out. Can’t see anybody scoring more than 21 pts and that is counting for garbage time. Tough task to win with that low of a scoring ceiling. Go Bucks!
Sark said everyone is healthy on Texas and will have all of their starters for Friday. Texas has also stopped the run all year except for the ASU game and a huge chunk of those yards were qb scramble yards. OSU has a better chance to win but I wouldn't be surprised if it's a 3 point game going into the 4th quarter. Texas has an incredible defense. But when the offense can't stay on the field and then the defense has to play 100 plays, they're going to be exhausted and allow some explosive plays. That was the story in the ASU game.
Then keep your eyes closed all game and you wont have to see it.
@@FrostTylerLeavitt had 60 but Skattebo had 148 so I wouldn’t say a “huge” part of the running yards was the QB. I think Judkins and Henderson compare favorably to Skattebo
You probably shouldn't even watch then. Just go ahead and make your plans for the national championship.
Great points about Sark and his script. He is so good with scripted plays coming out in the 1st half. I wish he would start 3rd quarters with scripted plays too. In other words develop two scripts - one for the first few series in the first half and one for the first few series of the 3rd quarter.
Didnt this josh guy say he just had a feels for these things and that oregon was gunna win?
So Josh's closing remark is that if OSU plays the way they played against 3 or 4 teams they lose. If Texas plays the way they played against any team besides Michigan they lose.
Idek if they “lose”
Osu defense is genuinely just allowing 13-20 pts max
Once through the season that was broken
Ohio St 38
Texas 17
Been waiting on this 4 damn days!!!! Think about me not your children lol
OSU, played into the game style of the Nebraska, Michigan and Penn State contests and won against Texas. I think it's time we start giving some credit to this team.
Unless you're making fat stacks on betting outcomes you can miss me with how great your system is.
Yes, I am an OSU fan and I think Josh just over thinks things. OSU will continue to play well and win by 10. OSU is focused.
I tend to agree, but the Vegas stat makes me nervous though.
You clearly do not know ohio state football. We always save our cards for the playoff. Horns down by 2 tugs min
You can give me a tug
😂😂😂
@ remind me Friday, go ahead and @ me or pin my comment. You’re an idiot if you think Texas has a chance. There are critical stat issues.
@@valuecat 🤐🤐😂😂😂
@ pretty quite now aren’t you
Once again, we have to hear that the team that OSU destroyed really wasn't that good. I'm sure if they destroy Texas and ND/PSU Josh will just say there weren't any good teams this year.
Josh been wrong 2 weeks in a row and willing to do it for a 3rd :)...
This run in the playoffs is who Ohio State is. The problem they had was throughout the entire regular season, they played not to lose instead of playing to win and after the Michigan game a switch was flipped and they started playing to their potential. Pedal to the floor, balls to the wall. If they come out this Friday with a mindset to play to win, they cant be stopped. If they play not to lose, they surely will.
Day was sandbagging for the playoffs.
Putting JJ Smith and Caleb Downs on the same field against the dudes that won the individual awards over them… GL Texas
Caleb Downs is the most insanely talented safety ive personally seen play the game since Ed Reed... Jeremiah Smith is the the most talented young WR ive seen play the game since R Moss at Marshall (i grew up 45 mins from Marshall campus so i got to see alot of Moss back then).
Every week “Ohio State just ain’t gonna do it”
Also every week - 20 point blowout
Except for that one...
I definitely think Texas gets blown out, Ohio state is on a death march to a natty. That’s a foregone conclusion in my mind, and my focus is more on the fact that expansionists were so thrilled with inclusion and the feel good side of a 12 team playoff. I just find it hilarious the initial result is going to be a blue blood with the best roster by a mile fooled around in the regular season and dominated the playoff.
We let NFL/fantasy/casual viewers dominate the narrative around CFB and it backfired immediately. Anyone who actually follows CFB knew this would be the result. I’m a fan of NIL in theory and think there’s a way to be fair to players, but everyone thought transfers and NIL would raise the field and hurt the top, when in reality it is just going to make elite teams even more elite.
This is a great point. The lower ranked Power Four teams and the Group of Five teams are going to be like the minor leagues for the blue bloods, with the occasional five star leaving a big program to follow the money
I don’t think you know what a death March is lol you used this term completely incorrectly hahahaha
NIL is a thing because the NCAA kept getting sued and losing. They had to find a way to pay the players.
@@blankname6629 thanks grammar nazi, It’s obviously a tongue and cheek comment.
Merriam-Webster: a march (as of prisoners of war) in which those unable to go on are left to die as they fall.
Ohio state is killing everyone they’ve played in the playoff and I assume they’ll continue to.
Josh - Ohio States line isn’t very good.
Since McLaughlin went down, sacks allowed and rushing yards;
vs Indiana - 0 / 116
vs Michigan - 0 / 77
vs Tennessee - 0 / 157
vs Oregon - 0 / 184
Also “Texas defense is a beast” …… meanwhile back in reality torched for 1000 yards last two games because they didn’t take them seriously……
😂😂😂😂 GTFOH
I also think this is the fastest defense OSU has faced this year. We have great team speed on defense.
After playing Penn State, Oregon twice, Michigan & Tennessee Ohio State won't be shocked by the talent & speed of Texas..this game will be about execution. Texas hasn't seen anything close to Ohio State's offense.
I like college football nerds but you guys didn’t talk about Texas struggles with Georgia one time lol
I truly love this channel. Been watching and liking every video since 2017. Recently stopped watching Pate, not a conscious decision but just can’t stand the “everyone and everything is great all the time” thing he does, to the point that idk if he believes anything he ever says. You guys shoot it straight and say your opinions, without being rude or being scared to be wrong. Love all the content yall put out and wish yall had the numbers that Pate gets.
This is the type of game where Texas will randomly play lights out after we all kept thinking that they might put it together and failing 😂
What game has Texas played lights out this season? id say maybe the OU game but OU was not a very good team
@8bitbanana they havent been consistent for sure. The interesting thing is that OSU just started playing lights out 2 games ago so you never know. With that said, we'll find out.
@8bitbanana Against Michigan who they put the beat down on. Something that Ohio State failed to do.
@@dlux917Michigan was dogshit early in the season.
As a Buckeye fan, I’ll always be the first to say anything is possible that includes Texas playing lights out when everyone doubted them.
“Texas has been without their two best offensive lineman” 😂 uh so has OSU 🤔
38-14 tOSU
The model is predicting essentially the same as it did for oregon. And that score is pretty close to the Tennessee game.
I think its pretty fair to say its within a decent confidence interval for the defense that osu allows… but not great at osu offense
Great video. Any idea when you will put out the Penn State Notre Dame video?
It's out
@ i just saw it pop up. Shout out to you guys!
I have no reason to think that the Ohio State offense we have seen the last two games will not show up on Friday. Maybe Texas is good enough to slow them down a bit. But then Texas has to score points on an Ohio State defense that does not give up many points to teams not named Ducks.
Give the points; take the Buckeyes.
Big Notre Dame fan, and quite frankly, I think you guys are correct about us. We do not have the talent to knock off OSU or Texas if they play their A game. But I have hope. I would not put money on us beating OSU, for sure, but I do think we could knock off Texas. If Texas can somehow manage to beat the buzzsaw that seems to be OSU at this point in the season, then I think ND can beat them. If OSU runs through Texas, and we manage to go on to the Natty, I think we will get flattened. But then again, sometimes, weird things happen.
I don't think Notre Dame can beat Texas if Texas plays mistake free. But a special teams TD or turnover and it's anyone's game. And Ewers *loves* to make mistakes in big games and especially against elite defenses.
OSU fan here but Don't see Notre Dame scoring more than 13-14 points on Penn State without special teams or big defensive play setting up for easy points like in the Sugar. Penn State is more sound than Georgia, imo just as a good of a defense..a better running back duo..a WR comin gup in Evans & a monster Tight End.
I'm worried about all the money on OSU and Texas can definitely win this but against the top half of the SEC they scored 15 and 16 against UGA in regulation and 17 vs A&M.
3 games vs the top half of the conference. Not very tested and still couldn't score 20 points.
Not really a spoiler when you don't like PSU. Lmao no PSU fan is gonna ever expect Josh to pick the team or say anything half decent. Can't wait for the video 😂
“If Ohio St plays like they did vs Nebraska, PSU, NW, MSU, or Michigan they’ll lose”…….
vs Nebraska - 21-17 / 285 yards
vs PSU - 20-13 / 358 yards
vs NW - 31-7 / 420 yards
vs MSU - 38-7 / 486 yards
vs Michigan - 10-13 / 252 / 2 TO / 0 sacks
Meanwhile Georgia in their 2 wins vs Texas
Game 1 - 30-15 / 283 / 3 TO / 1 sacks
Game 2 - 22-19 / 277 / 2 TO / 3 sacks
So literally all Ohio State has to do is play their worst game and can STILL beat Texas! Yes Texas offense played horrible in those games. Georgia defense doesn’t hold a candle to Buckeyes defense.
Josh I’m hammering you in this comment section cause this was some next level terrible analysis in this video from you.
Should be easy then, why even show up 😂😂😂😂😂
My man said Osu defence didn't play that good against Oregon then turns around and said Osu played A+ game.. Can't be both ways young fellas. Come on now
When I run the model it is different than what you showed in this video. I would think not much has changed since then. The model now shows OSU 27.5 to 16.5. And all the unit vs unit data is all green on the OSU side. But a point to the people who did the seeding, how does it feel that none, NONE, not one top seed made it to the top 4.
We added more data about 2 hours ago.
Ohio State 45 - Texas 10
When you're hot you're hot. Ohio State has had the talent the entire year - Day/Knowles/Kelly finally caught up in terms of game planning and management.
Honestly, I see Texas as a team similar to Ohio State's 2002 team. "Championship defense and just enough offense."
The Texas offense has real weaknesses that will be their undoing against an elite team. They’ve had redzone issues and are about to go against the best redzone D in the country. Their run game has been very hit or miss lately. They’ve given up 33 sacks. They get penalized a lot. Their offense frequently goes into black holes in the middle of the game.
Their D will probably play well but they will get gassed because the O cant sustain drives.
It sounds like Josh is scared that Ohio State is really just that good.
He can't accept it. Talking about how bad Ohio state played months ago. He sounds so biased.
@jordygamesbad that's because he is
Josh is by far the biggest SEC homer i've ever heard lol. and to say OSU shouldn't have been in the playoffs? idk man
Who has Texas beat and lost to?
Also Texas has the best total defense but they don’t have the best DL we’ve played.
Games are won up front and you’re ignoring what OSU did to Oregon who has a better DL.
You keep talking about who osu has or hasn’t played but who has texas played?