Lily Gladstone and Emma Stone both have spectacular performances that are clear highlights of their respective films. If they were in separate years they both could have easily won
Emma had a spectacular performance and best in the category, so she would win. Lily should be in supporting and I do not believe it was an award winning performance.
@@tonyg76True, her acting skills are below average! she fails to bring a character to life! emma and carey should have been the competitors! people talk about the versatility of emma's character but forget about how good carey's performance was! she should have won a golden globe for best drama actress!
Academy has to go the Globes route and separate categories. How to you choose best with apples and oranges? Lily, drama (tho I don’t think she is a lead performance) and Emma, comedy. IMO Stone, who is the core of the film, completely overwhelms Gladstone’s performance. Stone dominates in range, physicality, and acting skill set. And IMO Lily should have competed in supporting category. Stone deserves both SAG and Oscar.
Gladstone made the 'Michelle Williams' mistake by going lead - had she remained supporting where she belongs, she'd have a lock on it. Emma will win, and deservedly so.
@@charlesfranklinlambeth3944 jamie lee, yes Michelle yeoh was the most awarded actress of the past awards season with 38 awards, more than any contender Whereas jamie lee won nothing individually
One factor you missed: the overall likeability of the film. Poor Things have been better received across the board, while KOTFM has lost a lot of awards season momentum. It didn't get the Oscar nomination for screenplay either. How much the voters like a film also decides which actress will get their vote. So, yeah, Emma is getting it.
1:34 I think you hit the nail on the head there. The Globes, CC and BAFTA are all their own voting groups with their own interests. SAG on the other hand, seems like very much an overlap of voters and hence has much greater inside influence. I'd say whoever wins SAG will win the Oscar for the time being, unless of course they change the schedule around and BAFTA again becomes the last one before the big one.
All true. With SAG on Netflix - I don’t think they’ll change the schedule around again, but I guess we’ll first have to see how it plays out on Netflix this year
@@spielsonreelsuh calm down with Oppenheimer yes he can win awards but I have the impression that you forget Killers Of The Flower Moon this film deserves to be rewarded for best director, best film and best actress oppenheimer is not going to win everything when Killers Of The Flower Moon will win you go tell oscars steal
I will take your word for it. It's just weird that there's always someone in the category with no chance and she seems to be the one in this case as well as Annette.
i will be pissed if Gladstone gonna win the oscar. Emma Stone really gave us one of the best perfomances ever and she might lose just because she previously won an oscar and is white? i hate that narrative thing, oscar should be given based only on the perfomance
Yes, but it is human nature. We all have bias. Some people will put that to one side, but some just can't help themselves. The Academy has a long history of this, such as last year when Curtis won her "career achievement award".
@@dj71162 last year supporting actress race was just pretty weak, so i understand why Curtis won that award. a lot of people said that Bassett should've won and yeah, she had good scenes but she was in 20 minutes of 2,5h movie, so i was fine with Curtis winning and i would vote for her also
It's not too soon for Emma ! Remember that Frances McDormand won TWO Oscars beetween 2018 and 2021 !! And years ago , Meryl won 2's as well for " Kramer vs Kramer " and " Sophie's Choice " in a short period of time ... GO EMMA !!!!!
@@chriswright4677 yes I do watch them and yes they are becoming more and more US-centered, but at the end of the day it's supposed to be about UK cinema, it's the British Academy.
I’m rooting for Sandra Huller. Hoping for that Olivia Colman factor to kick in: the best performance in the best movie. In my mind it makes sense. It is a movie of a generation and it was undernominated, if that is a word. It is killing it everywhere. Original Screenplay is in the bag. But one Oscar is not enough. And between Actress and Editing (Picture and Director are too out of reach), my money is on acting. Gladstone is never gonna get it, let’s be honest. Stone already has one. I think it’s Huller’s. Actually what I think is that Oppenheimer is hanging by a thread. If they added a week or two… only Nolan is getting the statue.
The thing is that it's very hard to predict. Glenn Close was all set to win her Oscar in 2019, she won the SAG, Golden Globe and Critics Choice Awards. Yet Olivia Colman took home the award much to everyone's shock. And she was technically not the lead. The narrative was actually about Emma Stone, who was nominated as a supporting actress. So I wouldn't be surprised if Lily ends up winning. Personally, I love Emma Stone's performance in Poor Things, and I really liked Lily Gladstone's performance, and I strongly feel that Emma Stone will have more opportunities to have further nominations. She has already been nominated 4 times for her acting within a decade, winning one the year when she was far from being the absolute best - Natalie Portman and Isabelle Huppert were the most critically acclaimed that year. Actually, many of the most critically acclaimed actresses of the year don't end up winning the Oscar. Lily's win will be more culturally impactful. And she has less chance than Emma to bag another nomination.
This is a great point - and I really do think it will factor in the academy member’s decision making in the sense that they might think it’s Lily Gladstone’s time this year and there may not be another one soon.
I hate a “narrative”. How about people just vote for who they liked in their film. I bet most of the voters don’t even watch all the performances and just vote for who they know or like so it’s largely bullshit
I love how even after SAG it’s still a race, Emma has the stronger film. Lily a more heartfelt possible win. Both are deserving, and both clearly adore each other! Regardless of who wins, they both have won big awards, and so they can be considered winners!
my prediction is Emma, but i won't be surprised if Lily wins, another thing is if Lily lose the Oscar, probably Killers of the Flower Moon won't win another award, so probably they are pushing for Lily knowing she is the only opportunity to win and people really liked KOTFM. I See this similar to the last year when Cate won everything and Michelle was pushing saying Cate don't need another Oscar and she could've the first asian best actress in years, but this years but Emma have agains her age, her recent Oscar and people that want Lily wins (and Sandra, because we are not talking about her but people LOVED her and it's pushing for her or Lily). Let's see tomorrow, but i think that if Emma wins the SAG, Lily doors still open for what her win can means to Oscar story, but if Lily wins SAG, Emma race it's over. For now i think Academy will not care about people opinion and this is Emma year! (love your videos btw)
so what's the point of other actors showing up to the oscars if they know they'll lose based off of the pre-awards like sag, bafta, globes, critics etc
IF Lily Gladstone wins the SAG and IF Lily Gladstone has an incredible speech, she has a good shot at the Oscar. If Emma Stone wins at SAG, the Oscar is hers…done deal, ship it.
This year's Oscar was LARGELY based on the BAFTA wins except for Best Visual Effect in which Godzilla snagged the Oscar. So I think BAFTAs will have a stronger premonition in predicting the Oscars than SAG.
Good system. 2018 and 2022 were the most recent years, where the Best Actress winner didn't have the most (or tied for the most) major precursor wins. The problem was that The Wife only had one nomination. Single nominations rarely win, unless there were no other contenders out there. Last year, we saw that the Guilds absolutely loved EEAAO. It won all the major Guilds, except for SAG Actor, which there were no eligible nominees. In 2020 or 2021, Frances McDormand had the same number of wins as Mulligan, Davis, and Day. But I think the Academy was higher than Nomadland than they were on Ma Rainey, Promising, and Billie. I am not sure if I get the whole "Was it a real lead or not?" The Academy had no issue giving Kidman for The Hours, Coleman for Favourite, or Lawrence for Silver. After seeing KOTFM, I don't see why she should ever be considered supporting. Without giving much away, she is very much main symbol of the picture, and has the second most screen time, behind Leo.
The “real lead” is pretty subjective, and probably relates more to whether there’s a case of category fraud in the mix. I suppose also actresses in female-perspective films are the ones who have a higher chance of winning (the story is told from her perspective rather than a combo or male protagonist perspective)
@spielsonreels Why do you use the phrase "category fraud"? Fraud implies illegal activity. The system allows actors and actresses to decide which category they want to be considered in. Unlike SAG or the Emmys, the Academy has the freedom to place the actor in the category they feel best represents the picture. Gladstone choose to campaign as lead. Gosling choose to campaign as supporting. Academy members felt that Gladstone was indeed lead and Gosling was indeed supporting. I am not sure why people don't understand that concept. I am okay with putting "grey performances" in lead or supporting. It is more of a comfort level and awards posturing thing.
@gregfeasel5874 the term “category fraud” is a term coined by film journalists and cinephiles for actors that don’t potentially fit their categories. Usually the actors and their chosen lead or supporting category get submitted by film producers and filmmakers to the Academy. The term “category fraud” isn’t in any way saying it’s illegal, it is just what the film industry use when they don’t think actors match their submitted category. If you’re interested, my last video explains it a bit more thoroughly :) th-cam.com/video/6kn4sC5PgoI/w-d-xo.htmlsi=02bCT6uzT_MuYdbO
I love both of them, they’re amazing. But I think the role of Emma Stone is more difficult than the role of Lily Gladstone. Definitely a ‘Stone’ is going to win… 😀
The "Narrative" of who should win is the most ridiculous factor the Academy is "considering" when voting for a winner. The winner should be voted based on merit, nothing more. This Oscar campaigning and politics is so annoying that it veers away from the rightful and true deserving winners.
When regarding to the narrative campaign I think this is hurting lily bc whenever actors/actresses of color use making potential history with a Oscar win as part of their campaign, it’s always better to make it PART of their narrative not be the main, sole or driving point to the narrative, this is what helped Michelle yeoh and Halle berry, alongside the potential history they can make with their Oscar win, there was also the career journey that was attached to it, for Michelle it was the fact that she was a established Hollywood/international film legend who’s been overlooked due to the prejudice surrounding genre films, her race and age and is giving the best performance of her career, while halle was being a Hollywood sex symbol who was finally breaking through into becoming a seriously talented prestigious, dramatic actress, lily don’t have a strong part to that, initially her narrative and campaign started out as the young ingenue talented actress who’s been a acclaimed fan favorite fixture in the indie film scene making her mainstream breakthrough in killers of the followers moon AND she can make history by becoming the first indigenous woman to win the best actress Oscar, but that latter part has low key overshadowed her campaign and narrative and it’s going into borderline tokenism from predominantly white Oscar fantastics/cinephiles on social media, it only makes it more complicated that she’s getting pushed in the leading category for a supporting performance, it’s more subtle and understated and killers of the follow moon has lost a lot of buzz it almost underperformed for Oscar nominations
I do not like the narrative part of your formula as it should be all about the performance. Besides that, it is a good points system. I like these videos that you, Ryan Casselman and Greg Feasel do that look at the data. I loved your best picture video last year. Doing it again this year? In any event, keep up the good work and I will keep being one of your loyal subscribers! Also, if Emma wins SAG, she is my prediction. If Lilly wins, maybe her, but I will still be hopedicting Emma :)
I haven’t seen neither movie. I’m just rooting for Oppenheimer. That movie was amazing! I’m also rooting for Across the spider-verse & Godzilla Minus One! Amazing films!! Regardless, I love Emma Stone, but I’m rooting for Lily Gladstone because she has a stronger narrative as you said. Both Killers of the flower moon & poor things look really good.
ه * Best actross: What happend to lilly gladston In golden globe She was nomnase in Drama catogory of leading acting So she face sandra huller And she win agains her. But she dont face emma stont in golden globe Becase emma dont face lilly and dont face sandra. But in bafta Emma face sandra huller alone Without lilly gladston And emma stone win against sandra huller. So emma she win When she dont face Sandra huller in golden golden globe Becase she was in comedy category. After she win again when in critics choice awards When she face sandra and lilly gladstone togther. So untill now Sandra or lilly Dont defeat emma at all Becase she dont face them In golden globe And she defeat them in critics and in bafta as a winer. So we can not say Lilly gladston Defeat emme in golden globe Becase two win golden in diffrent category. Comedy or drama. Lilly win one but not defeat emma at all in any awards Becase her wining seperate. In sag Will be clearly who the big front runner. If emma when saag That mean lilly win golden globe Becase she was contender without emma. And if emma win sag Will make oscar member Confused Becade she sweep all awards of seasion Sooo if they want give the award To diversty Or to new person same sandra Will be diffcult. Becase bafta and critics and sag give emma stone all awards. Unfair emme stone Dont win oscar if the resean is she get one oscar early career before Becase poor thing Better than lala land And unfair if the oscar go to divirsty not to the best white. If lilly gladstone dont win sag Will be same emelly blant in bafta Audiance make posippilty dont happend. Ungenerall Lilly gladston Must from the first seasion Face davine joy rondolph In race and win as native amrican If lilly in supporting category She defeat dvain joy randolph.
The roof went DOWN when Lily’s name got called at SAG. People wanted her to win. She has that Oscar in the bag now. Plus Emma won an Oscar not too long ago
uh calm down with Oppenheimer yes he can win awards but I have the impression that you forget Killers Of The Flower Moon this film deserves to be rewarded for best director, best film and best actress oppenheimer is not going to win everything when Killers Of The Flower Moon will win you go tell oscars steal
Good video but assigning 3 points to SAG n only 1 pt to Bafta is...a choice. U r over-confident o SAG's influence n under-estimating Bafta's reach! They r both equally impt industry awards precursors n I'd assign them equal weightage like 2 pts? Just bcos Bafta got them all wrong n SAG got all 4 correct last yr doesn't mean we shld immediately dismisses 1 n elevates the other 1. Alws rem actors only make up 13% to 14% o the 9000+ voting members of the academy. They maybe the biggest grp by % but they r not the majority
The best actress in this season is Sandra Hüller, german 🇩🇪 Her work un "Anatomy of a Fall" Is of another planet. But, well, USA is USA, Hollywood is Hollywood. Stone and Gladstone are "americans" 😖🤦🏻♂️ but the REAL WINNER Is Hüller 👊🏻
Sometimes, the perception of a movie as being divisive colors the awards outcome. Poor Things is that movie where the biggest fans seem to be MEN particularly straight men. It would seem that many women voters might be be put off by the hyper sexualized depiction of Emma Stone's character in PT . Those brothel scenes with numerous unattractive men foisted upon a young actress by a male director's vision seem over indulgent. The movie is about a woman's growth - largely through sex. Lily on the other hand, has the classic female protagonist role; the strong, beautiful and tragic heroine undone by the love (and callousness) of men.
+1 for BAFTA is ludicrous. This is where a human must intervene and insert the asterisk that Emma Stone is a white woman and Lily is not. Emma winning BAFTA as a white woman should be +0.3 at best. Critics Choice is another laughable +1, it is not a guild award and has no business holding the same importance as a Golden Globe.
Gladstone did amazing but Stone did the imposible, let’s be real
The academy needs to reward based on performance alone
Lily Gladstone and Emma Stone both have spectacular performances that are clear highlights of their respective films. If they were in separate years they both could have easily won
Emma had a spectacular performance and best in the category, so she would win. Lily should be in supporting and I do not believe it was an award winning performance.
Gladstones wasnt even a lead performance though. She's barely even in the movie.
@@tonyg76True, her acting skills are below average! she fails to bring a character to life! emma and carey should have been the competitors! people talk about the versatility of emma's character but forget about how good carey's performance was! she should have won a golden globe for best drama actress!
@@shadysorkin9214it's good for the movie, isn't it? lol. because she doesn't pull off emotional and tragic roles that well..!!
Academy has to go the Globes route and separate categories. How to you choose best with apples and oranges? Lily, drama (tho I don’t think she is a lead performance) and Emma, comedy. IMO Stone, who is the core of the film, completely overwhelms Gladstone’s performance. Stone dominates in range, physicality, and acting skill set. And IMO Lily should have competed in supporting category. Stone deserves both SAG and Oscar.
Lily is gonna win the Oscar, the public wants it. Bet
@@orangesliicesI will be very happy if either one wins, but honestly Stone’s performance was one in a lifetime thing and she crushed it
Lily just won the SAG award!!
YESSS I THINK LILY MIGHT WINN the oscar
NVM EMMA WONNN1!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I really do believe that Emma is the most deserving oscar wins for best actress this year. HER PERFORMANCE IS SO OUTSTANDING
She already won an Oscar in 2016 for La La Land, even though I never saw that movie!
I really hope that Emma Stone wins that Oscar!
No, Lily Gladstone will win.
@@encheknizam no Donald trump will win 2024 election and the Democratic Party will be doomed forever. amen.
Me, too!
Gladstone made the 'Michelle Williams' mistake by going lead - had she remained supporting where she belongs, she'd have a lock on it. Emma will win, and deservedly so.
I hope lily wins but Emma winning I think everyone could agree would still be good as she gives an Oscar worthy performance
Poor things has made 100 million dollars at the box office.
SAG getting THREE points is SO unhinged
I don’t know. It made all the difference to Michelle Yeoh and Jamie Lee Curtis last year.
olivia colman won bafta and oscar without sag
@@charlesfranklinlambeth3944
@@charlesfranklinlambeth3944historically (with really the only exception being last year) BAFTA has been the strongest predictor of Oscar acting wins.
@@rhythmorientedI know. But they missed them ALL last year and SAG got them all correct. Go figure.
@@charlesfranklinlambeth3944 jamie lee, yes
Michelle yeoh was the most awarded actress of the past awards season with 38 awards, more than any contender
Whereas jamie lee won nothing individually
I can assure that Oscar will be given to the one with "stone" in her last name.
let's hope not
@@merveben4753 actually hoping for an upset win for legendary Benning, exceptional Mulligan, or phenomenal Sandra Huller.
If Lilly Gladstone wins she would be making history with the first Native American to Win.
I hope it’s a tie. It’s happened before.
One factor you missed: the overall likeability of the film. Poor Things have been better received across the board, while KOTFM has lost a lot of awards season momentum. It didn't get the Oscar nomination for screenplay either. How much the voters like a film also decides which actress will get their vote. So, yeah, Emma is getting it.
That’s a great point! Definitely worth factoring that in
I hope Lily Gladstone wins.
@@encheknizam Go Emma Stone!
@@spielsonreels why Killers Of The Flower Moon shouldn't win an Oscar
1:34 I think you hit the nail on the head there. The Globes, CC and BAFTA are all their own voting groups with their own interests. SAG on the other hand, seems like very much an overlap of voters and hence has much greater inside influence. I'd say whoever wins SAG will win the Oscar for the time being, unless of course they change the schedule around and BAFTA again becomes the last one before the big one.
All true. With SAG on Netflix - I don’t think they’ll change the schedule around again, but I guess we’ll first have to see how it plays out on Netflix this year
@@spielsonreelsuh calm down with Oppenheimer yes he can win awards but I have the impression that you forget Killers Of The Flower Moon this film deserves to be rewarded for best director, best film and best actress oppenheimer is not going to win everything when Killers Of The Flower Moon will win you go tell oscars steal
Your scoring system makes a lot of sense😊 And now Lily has won SAG, shaking things up for the Oscars. Loving it!!!
Well, didn't shake MUCH as Emma won.
I'm gonna CRY when she wins, it's going to be so more meaningful and impactful. You heard it here first 🎉
It would've but Emma won. AS SHE SHOULD. I love Lily!
love them both, but my love will always be for Sandra ❤
let's be honest, Sandra Huller smoked them both acting-wise this year.
I will take your word for it. It's just weird that there's always someone in the category with no chance and she seems to be the one in this case as well as Annette.
i will be pissed if Gladstone gonna win the oscar. Emma Stone really gave us one of the best perfomances ever and she might lose just because she previously won an oscar and is white? i hate that narrative thing, oscar should be given based only on the perfomance
Yes, but it is human nature. We all have bias. Some people will put that to one side, but some just can't help themselves. The Academy has a long history of this, such as last year when Curtis won her "career achievement award".
@@dj71162 last year supporting actress race was just pretty weak, so i understand why Curtis won that award. a lot of people said that Bassett should've won and yeah, she had good scenes but she was in 20 minutes of 2,5h movie, so i was fine with Curtis winning and i would vote for her also
Unfair if emma stone lose oscar becase she white and she win before
Becase her acting in this film better than lala land
It's not too soon for Emma !
Remember that Frances McDormand won TWO Oscars beetween 2018 and 2021 !! And years ago , Meryl won 2's as well for " Kramer vs Kramer " and " Sophie's Choice " in a short period of time ...
GO EMMA !!!!!
@@fabiencoze9829 Don't forget Hilary Swank and Jodie Foster.
I wish the Oscar goes to Emma, she was amazing and her rol was more complete and memorable for me.
Is Lily time to shine! Not only she is so deserving,it will also be a landmark moment in the history of the Oscars.
Sorry, Emma won the oscar.
@@lizmariasoji109 I’m aware of that
Bafta should be worth more than 1 point. Aside from last year where they went 0/4, they're usually accurate in deciding who nets the oscar
BAFTA is about UK, not US cinema.
@@adilelnhaily6014have you actually seen the Baftas?
@@chriswright4677 yes I do watch them and yes they are becoming more and more US-centered, but at the end of the day it's supposed to be about UK cinema, it's the British Academy.
Bafta there's no relevance in Oscar race at all.
Lily Gladstone Will win the Oscar! Her performance iconified indeed the imploded pain and suffer Osage women went through. She's the one!❤
I hope so!
sorry but emma >>>>
I’m rooting for Sandra Huller. Hoping for that Olivia Colman factor to kick in: the best performance in the best movie. In my mind it makes sense. It is a movie of a generation and it was undernominated, if that is a word. It is killing it everywhere. Original Screenplay is in the bag. But one Oscar is not enough. And between Actress and Editing (Picture and Director are too out of reach), my money is on acting. Gladstone is never gonna get it, let’s be honest. Stone already has one. I think it’s Huller’s.
Actually what I think is that Oppenheimer is hanging by a thread. If they added a week or two… only Nolan is getting the statue.
I wholeheartedly agree with you
The thing is that it's very hard to predict. Glenn Close was all set to win her Oscar in 2019, she won the SAG, Golden Globe and Critics Choice Awards. Yet Olivia Colman took home the award much to everyone's shock. And she was technically not the lead. The narrative was actually about Emma Stone, who was nominated as a supporting actress. So I wouldn't be surprised if Lily ends up winning. Personally, I love Emma Stone's performance in Poor Things, and I really liked Lily Gladstone's performance, and I strongly feel that Emma Stone will have more opportunities to have further nominations. She has already been nominated 4 times for her acting within a decade, winning one the year when she was far from being the absolute best - Natalie Portman and Isabelle Huppert were the most critically acclaimed that year. Actually, many of the most critically acclaimed actresses of the year don't end up winning the Oscar. Lily's win will be more culturally impactful. And she has less chance than Emma to bag another nomination.
This is a great point - and I really do think it will factor in the academy member’s decision making in the sense that they might think it’s Lily Gladstone’s time this year and there may not be another one soon.
NAHHH EMMA WONNNN
@@lizmariasoji109 yes and even she was suprised.
Marcia Gay Harden in Pollock won an Oscar without Golden Globe, Critics Choice, BAFTA and SAG.
I hate a “narrative”. How about people just vote for who they liked in their film. I bet most of the voters don’t even watch all the performances and just vote for who they know or like so it’s largely bullshit
I’ve noticed KOTFM loosing a lot of momentum in the Oscar conversation which makes me worried. But I’d be happy to see either of them win the Oscar.
Becase the film lose in all seasion
Just lilly win golden and have chance to win sag and oscar
Peaple talk about the winer more and front runer
I think Huller made best Job but since she is not American she won't be the winner
Based on your scoring system, Lily Gladstone is now the frontrunner.
Yep! I'm in shock!
EMMA WONNNN LOL
I love how even after SAG it’s still a race, Emma has the stronger film. Lily a more heartfelt possible win. Both are deserving, and both clearly adore each other! Regardless of who wins, they both have won big awards, and so they can be considered winners!
my prediction is Emma, but i won't be surprised if Lily wins, another thing is if Lily lose the Oscar, probably Killers of the Flower Moon won't win another award, so probably they are pushing for Lily knowing she is the only opportunity to win and people really liked KOTFM. I See this similar to the last year when Cate won everything and Michelle was pushing saying Cate don't need another Oscar and she could've the first asian best actress in years, but this years but Emma have agains her age, her recent Oscar and people that want Lily wins (and Sandra, because we are not talking about her but people LOVED her and it's pushing for her or Lily). Let's see tomorrow, but i think that if Emma wins the SAG, Lily doors still open for what her win can means to Oscar story, but if Lily wins SAG, Emma race it's over. For now i think Academy will not care about people opinion and this is Emma year! (love your videos btw)
You forgot to mentioned that Lily won national board of review also which is equal as Emma so far
I still belive Emma will win oscar even she has no sag because leading or supporting, male or female,,, she did the top finest performance.
so what's the point of other actors showing up to the oscars if they know they'll lose based off of the pre-awards like sag, bafta, globes, critics etc
IF Lily Gladstone wins the SAG and IF Lily Gladstone has an incredible speech, she has a good shot at the Oscar. If Emma Stone wins at SAG, the Oscar is hers…done deal, ship it.
what has a speech gotten to do with it?
WELL EMMA WON WITHOUT WINNING SAG SO...
Lily Gladstone for the WIN!!
EMMA STONE WON
@@lizmariasoji109 What an amazing speech & it’s an amazing performance. So happy to be wrong!!
@@scottscarboro1973 I COMPLETELY AND WHOLE-HEARTEDLY AGREE
Looks like Lily will win the Oscar then. She snagged the SAG. I had predicted Emma, because she was doing so well for the other award shows.
I thought the same. But we will see tonight!
This year's Oscar was LARGELY based on the BAFTA wins except for Best Visual Effect in which Godzilla snagged the Oscar. So I think BAFTAs will have a stronger premonition in predicting the Oscars than SAG.
I for one think Emma Stone will win the Oscar for one very important reason: Lilly Gladstone did not even get a BAFTA nomination
Yes exactly
I really hope Lilly Gladstone wins best actress she did an amazing performance in killers of the flower moon
sorry dude whats done is done
@@lizmariasoji109 I know 😢
@@Themarvelnerd2016 Emma deserved it, let's be fr.
stone
Good system. 2018 and 2022 were the most recent years, where the Best Actress winner didn't have the most (or tied for the most) major precursor wins. The problem was that The Wife only had one nomination. Single nominations rarely win, unless there were no other contenders out there. Last year, we saw that the Guilds absolutely loved EEAAO. It won all the major Guilds, except for SAG Actor, which there were no eligible nominees. In 2020 or 2021, Frances McDormand had the same number of wins as Mulligan, Davis, and Day. But I think the Academy was higher than Nomadland than they were on Ma Rainey, Promising, and Billie.
I am not sure if I get the whole "Was it a real lead or not?" The Academy had no issue giving Kidman for The Hours, Coleman for Favourite, or Lawrence for Silver. After seeing KOTFM, I don't see why she should ever be considered supporting. Without giving much away, she is very much main symbol of the picture, and has the second most screen time, behind Leo.
The “real lead” is pretty subjective, and probably relates more to whether there’s a case of category fraud in the mix. I suppose also actresses in female-perspective films are the ones who have a higher chance of winning (the story is told from her perspective rather than a combo or male protagonist perspective)
@spielsonreels Why do you use the phrase "category fraud"? Fraud implies illegal activity. The system allows actors and actresses to decide which category they want to be considered in. Unlike SAG or the Emmys, the Academy has the freedom to place the actor in the category they feel best represents the picture. Gladstone choose to campaign as lead. Gosling choose to campaign as supporting. Academy members felt that Gladstone was indeed lead and Gosling was indeed supporting. I am not sure why people don't understand that concept. I am okay with putting "grey performances" in lead or supporting. It is more of a comfort level and awards posturing thing.
@gregfeasel5874 the term “category fraud” is a term coined by film journalists and cinephiles for actors that don’t potentially fit their categories. Usually the actors and their chosen lead or supporting category get submitted by film producers and filmmakers to the Academy. The term “category fraud” isn’t in any way saying it’s illegal, it is just what the film industry use when they don’t think actors match their submitted category. If you’re interested, my last video explains it a bit more thoroughly :)
th-cam.com/video/6kn4sC5PgoI/w-d-xo.htmlsi=02bCT6uzT_MuYdbO
I love both of them, they’re amazing. But I think the role of Emma Stone is more difficult than the role of Lily Gladstone. Definitely a ‘Stone’ is going to win… 😀
Gladstone. 👏
STONEEE
The "Narrative" of who should win is the most ridiculous factor the Academy is "considering" when voting for a winner. The winner should be voted based on merit, nothing more.
This Oscar campaigning and politics is so annoying that it veers away from the rightful and true deserving winners.
I would love for Sandra Huller to win the trophy
However if she doesn't, Lily would be a deserving winner as well
Hoping Paul Giamatti is victorious!
Lily looks like Brie Larson
When regarding to the narrative campaign I think this is hurting lily bc whenever actors/actresses of color use making potential history with a Oscar win as part of their campaign, it’s always better to make it PART of their narrative not be the main, sole or driving point to the narrative, this is what helped Michelle yeoh and Halle berry, alongside the potential history they can make with their Oscar win, there was also the career journey that was attached to it, for Michelle it was the fact that she was a established Hollywood/international film legend who’s been overlooked due to the prejudice surrounding genre films, her race and age and is giving the best performance of her career, while halle was being a Hollywood sex symbol who was finally breaking through into becoming a seriously talented prestigious, dramatic actress, lily don’t have a strong part to that, initially her narrative and campaign started out as the young ingenue talented actress who’s been a acclaimed fan favorite fixture in the indie film scene making her mainstream breakthrough in killers of the followers moon AND she can make history by becoming the first indigenous woman to win the best actress Oscar, but that latter part has low key overshadowed her campaign and narrative and it’s going into borderline tokenism from predominantly white Oscar fantastics/cinephiles on social media, it only makes it more complicated that she’s getting pushed in the leading category for a supporting performance, it’s more subtle and understated and killers of the follow moon has lost a lot of buzz it almost underperformed for Oscar nominations
I do not like the narrative part of your formula as it should be all about the performance. Besides that, it is a good points system. I like these videos that you, Ryan Casselman and Greg Feasel do that look at the data. I loved your best picture video last year. Doing it again this year? In any event, keep up the good work and I will keep being one of your loyal subscribers! Also, if Emma wins SAG, she is my prediction. If Lilly wins, maybe her, but I will still be hopedicting Emma :)
The way it should be is not the way it is
@@rafaelcruz9973 So? That does not mean it can't change or that I will stop advocating for the change.
@@tonyg76 that's not what the video is about, but you do you
Thanks for watching! Yeah, stay tuned for the best picture prediction in a few days!
Lily
If Annette Bening wins SAG that will make things interesting at Oscar’s
If Annette Bening wins SAG, I’ll sell all my Nvidia stock and buy Florida swampland.
Ohhhh yes
I haven’t seen neither movie.
I’m just rooting for Oppenheimer. That movie was amazing!
I’m also rooting for Across the spider-verse & Godzilla Minus One!
Amazing films!!
Regardless, I love Emma Stone, but I’m rooting for Lily Gladstone because she has a stronger narrative as you said.
Both Killers of the flower moon & poor things look really good.
As always, blown away by this video!!
Thanks!!
ه * Best actross:
What happend to lilly gladston
In golden globe
She was nomnase in
Drama catogory of leading acting
So she face sandra huller
And she win agains her.
But she dont face emma stont in golden globe
Becase emma dont face lilly and dont face sandra.
But in bafta
Emma face sandra huller alone
Without lilly gladston
And emma stone win against sandra huller.
So emma she win
When she dont face
Sandra huller in golden golden globe
Becase she was in comedy category.
After she win again when in critics choice awards
When she face sandra and lilly gladstone togther.
So untill now
Sandra or lilly
Dont defeat emma at all
Becase she dont face them
In golden globe
And she defeat them in critics and in bafta as a winer.
So we can not say
Lilly gladston
Defeat emme in golden globe
Becase two win golden in diffrent category.
Comedy or drama.
Lilly win one but not defeat emma at all in any awards
Becase her wining seperate.
In sag
Will be clearly who the big front runner.
If emma when saag
That mean lilly win golden globe
Becase she was contender without emma.
And if emma win sag
Will make oscar member
Confused
Becade she sweep all awards of seasion
Sooo if they want give the award
To diversty
Or to new person same sandra
Will be diffcult.
Becase bafta and critics and sag give emma stone all awards.
Unfair emme stone
Dont win oscar if the resean is she get one oscar early career before
Becase poor thing
Better than lala land
And unfair if the oscar go to divirsty not to the best white.
If lilly gladstone dont win sag
Will be same emelly blant in bafta
Audiance make posippilty dont happend.
Ungenerall
Lilly gladston
Must from the first seasion
Face davine joy rondolph
In race and win as native amrican
If lilly in supporting category
She defeat dvain joy randolph.
Best Leading Actress is the only award the juries can give for KOTFM so yes, Lily Gladstone will win.
The roof went DOWN when Lily’s name got called at SAG. People wanted her to win. She has that Oscar in the bag now. Plus Emma won an Oscar not too long ago
So what? Jodie Foster won 1988 and 1990. Frances in 2017 and 2020...
Just like the year before, the ethnicity of the actress will probably define the victory
uh calm down with Oppenheimer yes he can win awards but I have the impression that you forget Killers Of The Flower Moon this film deserves to be rewarded for best director, best film and best actress oppenheimer is not going to win everything when Killers Of The Flower Moon will win you go tell oscars steal
Good video but assigning 3 points to SAG n only 1 pt to Bafta is...a choice.
U r over-confident o SAG's influence n under-estimating Bafta's reach!
They r both equally impt industry awards precursors n I'd assign them equal weightage like 2 pts?
Just bcos Bafta got them all wrong n SAG got all 4 correct last yr doesn't mean we shld immediately dismisses 1 n elevates the other 1.
Alws rem actors only make up 13% to 14% o the 9000+ voting members of the academy. They maybe the biggest grp by % but they r not the majority
If Emma stone doesn't win for this amazing performance, it will feel very crappy to look back and remember ahhh yeah she lost.
Emma is clearing
Annette Bening...for the win
nahhh sis sorry
Do same for best actor please
If you don’t get nominated in any of the other ceremonies then you should be disqualified from the Oscars
Well I guess Lilly Gladstone is winning the Oscar! She just won the SAG! 😉
All my homies know Sandra Hüller is gonna take this one home.
She was amazing and I really thought she could win the BAFTA which would give her a chance at the Oscar
sorry to burst ur bubble
The best actress in this season is Sandra Hüller, german 🇩🇪 Her work un "Anatomy of a Fall" Is of another planet.
But, well, USA is USA, Hollywood is Hollywood. Stone and Gladstone are "americans" 😖🤦🏻♂️ but the REAL WINNER Is Hüller 👊🏻
Sometimes, the perception of a movie as being divisive colors the awards outcome.
Poor Things is that movie where the biggest fans seem to be MEN particularly straight men. It would seem that many women voters might be be put off by the hyper sexualized depiction of Emma Stone's character in PT . Those brothel scenes with numerous unattractive men foisted upon a young actress by a male director's vision seem over indulgent. The movie is about a woman's growth - largely through sex.
Lily on the other hand, has the classic female protagonist role; the strong, beautiful and tragic heroine undone by the love (and callousness) of men.
You are simplifying poor things too much. There is much more to it than sex.
You don't think the brothel scenes seemed excessive?@@tonyg76
Lily has had my support ever since I came out of the auditorium.
looks like its lily :(
nah
I need lily Gladstone to happen.
Oppenheimer Should win best picture.
Enough with the forced diversity already! Emma Stone better win that Oscar
Hahaha! Fail!
Emma will win because she sold out!
How is that?
+1 for BAFTA is ludicrous. This is where a human must intervene and insert the asterisk that Emma Stone is a white woman and Lily is not. Emma winning BAFTA as a white woman should be +0.3 at best. Critics Choice is another laughable +1, it is not a guild award and has no business holding the same importance as a Golden Globe.
The Academy is eager to get rid of the " #oscarssowhite" narrative, so likely Lily will win, just like Michelle over Cate
Instead going #oscarssowoke?
Stop this prediction! Lily Gladstone is winning. Better luck chasing your 2nd Oscar next time Ms. Desperate Emma Stone.