I'm still NOT BUYING DBS shares yet... here's why... | Singapore Stocks To Buy 2024
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 11 พ.ค. 2024
- If you are a DBS shareholder or are looking to buy DBS shares, this sharing will cover what is the latest dividend as well as prospects moving forward.
Edit 2:15 1,000 shares x $33 = 1,100 shares x $30
#dbs #investing #stocks #sgshares
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0:00 Introduction
0:32 Dividend announcement
3:46 Is dividend sustainable
6:52 CEO DBS expectations on rates
7:37 Margin peak
9:17 Pay cut
10:18 P/B ratio and my reasons
We do not make any recommendations on whether a security is a buy/sell as every investor has different investment goals and risk profiles. The presentation of ideas from Josh Tan and TheAstuteParent are strictly for education purposes. You are advised to perform independent research yourself or seek a qualified financial adviser. We will not be liable for any losses directly or indirectly from the material. Some of the referral links in the video summary are products and services personally used by Josh Tan and they may pay an affiliate commission or referral bonus.
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Update: DBS Piyush Gupta sells 20,000 DBS shares in 7may24
Followup video: NOT BUYING DBS SHARES IN 2024? I got roasted with some harsh comments... th-cam.com/video/52OP5gl6PrE/w-d-xo.htmlsi=ENYpQa9gfcpP-F1l
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Edit 2:15 1,000 shares x $33 = 1,100 shares x $30
I bought quite a bit of DBS before I watched this video a month ago and I got a bit concerned. Was I overly bullish on DBS? I started to think whether I should reduce my holdings. But I thought despite the potential NIM compression, DBS is actually doing a good job growing their wealth management business and overseas expansion. Plus the dividend yield is pretty decent. So, I decided to keep the shares. Fast forward to today, DBS just closed at $35.66, up from less than $32 a month ago. Happy with my decision. 😄
Ive no issues with DBS rallying up. Happy for you
Josh Tan has right to his own opinions and just like many economists who foretold a global economic recession by now are all dead wrong😂. Just remember Caveat Emptor and stay invested. Time in market always beats timing the market and the truth is not far from this advice!
I have held DBS for more than 20 years. In my opinion, investing in DBS is essentially investing in Singapore's long-term economy. From time to time, DBS shares might be slightly overpriced or slightly underpriced, but it is seldom significantly so (it does happen occasionally though). Therefore, the learning from my over 20 years of investing is try to not time the market, at least not for the mere mortals like us. More often than not, we will be wrong. There are so many contributing factors to a bank's earnings. Trying to time the entry based on one or two factors would often result in sub-optimal results. For me, I just add to my portfolio as and when fresh funds become available, as long as the share is not ridiculously over-priced, which I don't think DBS is at the moment. Keep it for the long term, especially when the dividends are good. Over time, dividends will pay for the capital invested entirely.
Lower interest rates doesn’t necessarily mean less profits because there is more borrowing when interest rates are low
Yes I understand and ceo has mentioned.
But loans picking up is likely an offset of reduction in profits and there is a lag factor as corporates don’t jump to borrow immediately with a slight rate cut
HI Josh, Happy Lunar New Year to you and Family. 新年顺风顺水顺财神，有钱有闲有好运
Happy new year too :)
Nice analysis, Josh. I've checked the balance sheet and was surprised about the profitability ad resilience of DBS. Looks like it's a great buy & hold and check investment for the next 20 years. The customer loyalty and equity ratio are highlights here. And the bank covers the whole value chain. I just miss a clear dividend policy here. The payouts are quite cyclic.
Thank you for the praise =)
Over-analysis Paralysis 😂Well technically not a stock split… When a company conducts a stock split, it increases the number of outstanding shares while proportionally decreasing the stock's price per share. This has the effect of reducing the dividend paid per share, but the total amount of dividends a shareholder receives remains the same.
In DBS’s case… the dividend is not pared down. For dividend investors, this is gold! I think it’s great for long term dividend growth investing. BUY!
Also, in comparison to quality and yield…why would anyone choose to buy REITs instead?
Numbers have shown me REITs are leaking money. None of my REITs had held its value. 😅
Haha can hear your joy. Congrats 👏
Hi Josh, I just want to share my point of view regarding stock split. For other contents in this video, I do agree with what you have said and you have supported this with data. But for stock split, I somehow do agree with this guy's point of view. In the event of a stock split, it will not be a 1-for-10 bonus issue, it will be your current holding being doubled by splitting each stock into 2, no more no less. And indeed the the stock price and the dividends will also be adjusted to accommodate the stock split. You can take a leaf out of OCBC stock split conducted years back. 😅
Keppel Pacific Oak US REIT (KORE) suspended distribution... Will you consider making a video about the REIT?
Ok if there's enough demand for it Id make one.
Do upvote here or in our official telegram group
As always well researched and well resented Josh Tan👍🏻
Thank you for the high praise
Hey Josh, it's been a month since this video. I've also been monitoring the DBS stocks the past month and noticed it's been rising rather quickly compared to OCBC and UOB, most probably due to the upcoming bonus shares. Maybe you could do a video to share your thoughts on DBS again? Maybe before or after dividends/bonus shares. Also maybe a video on the three bank stocks in Singapore?
Hi Jeff, sure. Maybe after 1Q when there’s new biz updates. Stay tuned
In 2009 DBS is $14.00 plus. Today its value X2. LONG term buyers just need to buy at a good P/B ratio or wait for a recession.
Covid 19, it was well below $18, did you pick up some? sub prime time is a bit too long ago!
Hi Josh could make a video for money market fund like united sgd fund. What do they means by yield, do they pay monthly interest regardless of nav up or down. Is it worth in 2024? Thanks in advance.
Stay tuned.
Projected yield in my understanding is just the bonds they own, at this price, what is the coupon rate they are getting. In the UOBAM cash portfolio, it does not pay it out but accumulated in NAV. Price of bond still fluctuates based on interest rates
NIM Expense lag, but some loans also lag eg fixed home loans that were loaned out when interest rate was lower. Does the effect of the two cancel each other?
Working backwords judging by the profit growth, the NIM expense lag has a much bigger impact. Maybe its because $ made from home loans is the spread (not the SORA/SIBOR part)?
Not 100% sure.
Great video. One question. I bought 300 shares of DBS using CPF-OA last year. When I log into my CPF investment account on Posbank, I still see 300 shares. When does DBS plan to pay the additional share bonus?
Here www.dbs.com/investors/financials/dividend-information
Invest safely and see you around
Hi Josh, Gong Xi Fatt Chai..great analysis as usual. 👍👍
Can you do a analysis video on Wilmar also? Waiting ..😊
Hi Jeff thanks.
Many defend dbs vehemently but it’s ok la :)
When dbs comes down we buy together. Wilmar businesses on other hand is complex and better as a trade?
May i know which Apps or website that u use 6:20 minutes. I like the graph trend view. Tq
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true , keep accumulating DBS
Pagi Boss ! Happy CNY ! Draw my excess cpf OA 2 buy some DBS on tue at $32.48 ! Quarterly dividend of 54 cts given out in 5th Apr , might also 54 cts in May,Aug n Nov . My yearly dividend yield be 6.6% ! Not yet include 60 bonus share issue plus 03 quarterly dividend this yr . Even if Feds cut 75 basis this yr , loan rate will be slight cheaper,more loan sale . I will buy some more after Bonus share issue XD , price likely drop below $29 ! Just like when keppel 's SMM bonus issue XD ,price drop below $5.40 , which i buy some.🤣🇸🇬
Haha good good =)
Josh, pls do a video on the new CPF changes
"The Enhanced Retirement Sum (ERS) will also be increased from three times the Basic Retirement Sum, to four times. "This means that the ERS next year will be S$426,000 and this will allow more members aged 55 and above to fully commit their accumulated CPF savings to receive higher payouts, should they wish to do so," Wong said.
The CPF system will also be rationalised.
From 2025, the CPF Special Account (SA) will be closed for those aged 55 and above. Currently, CPF members aged 55 and above have an SA and a retirement account (RA).
The SA savings will be transferred to the RA up to the full Full Retirement Sum, and the remaining savings will be transferred to the Ordinary Account (OA)."
Upvote if agree. Stay tuned
Josh, I don’t understand the new CPF when you have money between the amount of FRS and ERS in the new system. What if you have $400k in RA and what’s the payout? I don’t have access to payout calculator so can’t imagine that .
The issue confuse is whether the payout include interest earned etc
Hey Josh, liked your content especially this episode! Do you mind to share your opinion on my situation?
I am Malaysian working in Malaysia and planning to venture my entire savings and Bursa shares into SGX market, roughly about RM30k (plan to all in into DBS shares for long term dividend & future exchange rate).
Should I buy with a fixed amount monthly or can I just go all in to purchase DBS shares?
But it doesn't seems a good time to enter cause the price are very high IMO.
Reason of doing this is because I foresee MYR to SGD will be 1:4.40 by the time of 2034.
Thanks!
Hi thank you for support.
I cannot provide specific advice without knowing full context.
In general, I discourage making drastic moves. Even if you are certain to move entire savings, slow down and do so over the next few years so that you give yourself ample time to reconsider while learning more.
Never be too sure
Hope it answers, see you around
Smart invest sgx money also getting bigger.
But sgx only bank can buy.
I personal all in dbs at covid time until now
So what if dbs drop just buy for long term sure win.
Hi,Josh, do you think DBS share will keep on rising before ex- bonus date or not?
Hi, I don’t have a crystal ball but I’m not buying yet suggest my vote
share price in apr will definitely drop under 30 once ex div, unless share price can push above 33. If you're talking about under 30 without ex div, i doubt it will happen given higher cpi data just now. No reason to lower if inflation is trending upwards again
POV noted
If I'm not wrong August 2022 Fixed Deposit in UOB was 2.9%
You may be right. I Was using it to Describe the lagging factor only
For sustainability of dividend, you only discussed about NIM trend. Analysis is rather narrow and that DBS also has other significant contributors besides interest income. How about payout ratio? Unless a company pays out almost all of its earnings after tax to shareholders, whatever it retains over the years will surely be helpful to maintain dividend payout across high/low seasons.
Of course I’m aware of other income. Net interest income is the key component
Thinking out loud for investing in banks now.
It’s already clear that rates are no longer going higher and somewhere down in the near future, rates will start coming down.
Bulk of banks’ earnings comes from their income from interest earned from their loans.
Three scenarios for the economy moving forward:
1) hard landing. Loan volumes will crash. Fed will cut rates aggressively. Interest income will crash.
2) soft landing aka minor recession. Fed will cut rates, and likely as planned (3 this year). Loan volume will drop a bit due to sluggish economy. Interest rates lower. Interest income will fall.
3) no recession. Everything hunky dory. Fed will cut rates slowly. Loan volumes remain high.
For scenarios 1,2, both will not be good for banks and scenario 3 is positive. But given the elevated levels of the banks’ pb ratio relative to their historical means, the risk rewards not seem to attractive to me at this point. For long term investors, just ignore the above and dca or buy and don’t look at it anymore.
Although dbs had pledged that dividend per share will remain high even with the bonus issues of shares, as Josh had said, for existing shareholders, percentage of ownership of the company remains the same as it’s simply an expansion of share base. Dividend yield on its own, should never been used in isolation for any stock picking.
P.S this is not a bashing of banks shares. I am an owner of the three local banks as well since years ago.
Good sharing above
Hmm... analysis is a bit too simplistic. Higher interest rate environment is correlated to higher NIM is a given. Shouldn't take 12 mins to just to explain that but should include a deeper look at other important factors driving overall earnings potentials.
Sure. Do leave what else you feel would impact overall earning
@@joshconsultancy An analysis of the rates to NIM compression sensitivity would be a good start. For example, lower rates could mean lower loan rates but CASA ratio could potentially increase. Although NIM might go down, but volume might go up. What are the net impact on NIM and profits? That will form a quantitative baseline of potential risk to future dividend are we looking at.
Then a deeper dive into DBS regional expansion as well as other business strategies that are not NIM dependent, eg. wealth management, would also be good insights. As investors we would then make an educated risk/reward judgement.
Hahah well, Josh is just sharing and generate income from TH-cam. For investment , ppl need to think before buying.. tbh nobody know whether to buy more now or wait. Nobody know leh.
Josh Tan has right to his own opinions and just like many economists who foretold a global economic recession by now are all dead wrong😂. Just remember Caveat Emptor and stay invested. Time in market always beats timing the market and the truth is not far from this advice!
My sharing is a pov of me not buying now in view of the cycle. Agree with staying invested if you own DBS and are happy with it
❤❤come right time, waiting to buy dbs?
It appears that DBS has a trifecta of green flags: high dividend yield, fast dividend growth, and good history of paying dividends. Even if NIM decreases, still seems like a steady hold for years to come while collecting +6% in growing dividends per year
pov noted
Have this on my watch, looking for a good entry. Cheers Josh 🙏
Cheers and all the best too :)
DBS kept going up even after the bonus shares and dividend. Nice.
One day it may be nice
😂just to thank you after se your video cannot buy dbs keep going up even cb.
trolling? if not, no probs happy for u
Would rather they do an actual stock split say 2:1. This is cosmetic and used to cheat the ignorant. This split might cause you to have odd lots that are harder to sell in future.
DBS CEO said that S$10 billions profit can still be achieved in 2024 and they can still pay you 54 Cents dividend per qtr for 2024.
Im aware, read it and listened in as recorded. Can be achieved depends on business climate remaining stable also
5 days ago DBS was 32.5.... 5 days later it closed at 33.87.... think Mr Market disagrees with ur thoughts for now..... DBS until April for the dividend and bonus shares is a no brainer....
That’s just 5days. Which could have gone any direction
But I’m ok to be wrong, no probs 👌🏻
Actually the bonus shares are good news for dividend payout of higher increment - I am hopeful that they will maintain. As to why DBS is not skyrocketing , I put it to their China exposure which as a macro drag on China stocks including stocks with substantial exposure to China . It is a macro story . I expect China stocks to rebound in the dragon year and this will support the upward move after the bonus share price adjustment. I have been investing and adding DBS since the price was $15 and it has been my greatest return for my impending retirement in 5 years’ time.
Noted on your pov 👍
If analysis did wrongly, feel free to point out and all learn together. As for whether to buy or sell, make your own decision 😂. Happy New Year Josh. Best of luck for 2024 🎉🎉🎉
Yes I agree. Thank you and happy new year too =)
Thx josh for the meaningful video.about to buy dbs share as ak suggests it😂
You make ur decision k :)
I’ve some findings as presented here on forward earnings expected for 2024
Jai Hinduja. If the banks can lend me the money, I will buy up DBS right now.
I am also waiting to buy DBS so this video is timely.
Hope it’s useful and share with someone too 👌🏻
Just buy it monthly… why care about all these up down? unless u r a punter. Zzz
that should be the way
Me too! 😂
Buy at $33/share today translate to $30/ share post bonus.
CEO committed at least $2.16 dividend per year. This will translate to 7.2% on $30 share price.
7.2% yield on a growing blue chip business - Where to find? Especially when interest rates fall, DbS 7.2% will become even more attractive to dividend investors. Which will push prices above $30.
Conclusion - better buy now.
"CEO committed at least $2.16 dividend per year." - this part NOT committed do note.
The term used was annualised. Which can be met if profit level stays... something which I'm suggesting is not easy
@@joshconsultancy this is from the DBS announcement in their website
Barring unforeseen circumstances, the annualised ordinary dividend going forward will be SGD 2.16 per share over the enlarged share base, which represents a 24% increase from the SGD 1.92 per share for financial year 2023.
---
It is good that you are cautious, but I think DBS commitment and confidence is quite clear here.
DBS earnings easily down 8-10% in 2024 due to lower NIM
Agree that there is a chance it could dip abit which is just part of a business cycle
😂 u said cannot buy
Up alot how u feel.
😂
no worries
It’s an Indian bank so I won’t buy.
70% revenue sg
All time high coming 😂 2024
Okok huat ah :)