Great Channel IMO please allocate more time to fear and doubt orientated content & guests so that this will motivate sellers to complete their good work and asset price will be on bargain prices again
The solution to higher rates is simple. I’m getting out my WIN button and will be wearing it every day until inflation comes down to 2%. Thank you President Ford.
“The great inflations of our age are not acts of God. They are man-made or, to say it bluntly, government-made. They are the off-shoots of doctrines that ascribe to governments the magic power of creating wealth out of nothing and of making people happy by raising the ‘national income.’” - The Theory of Money and Credit by Ludwig von Mises
So two weeks ago bond market update with Mary Ellen Stanek it was the case for "Why Bonds are back" I'm confused? Maybe its just past my bedtime. Long, Longtime fan of Consuelo & James Grant. Cash remains king perhaps.
We've had QE and QT and now I predict we'll soon have QF...Quantitative Forgiveness. Each year the Fed will simply write off a chunk of the Treasury Bonds it holds. A simple application of MMT. That will allow long rates to stay higher. Savers and foreign investors will get a better yield and not dump Treasuries. It will allow the US government to run high deficits without getting overwhelmed with debt and interest costs. When you can't pay then you won't!
Don't disagree with more QE, but that keeps adding to government debt and QF may be a way around that. In 2008/9 there was a massive transfer of debt to the government, but this time it may be different because the huge debt is already with the government. Who wants the debt?
He spoke of Volker and 70s inflation.The amount of the debt was a way much lower than now .The old economist tends to go into this argument with their vivid memory .33 trillion of the debts (122% of GDP)can not simply bear much higher level of the rate .The delinquency of the credit card and auto loans are growing quite rapidly.He speaks of historical trends etc. The Japanese debt is 260% of GDP .Despite of the recent statement of the central banker of BOJ,the rates have not gone up much .There is not much power to observe the higher rate.I followed and invested in his idea of PHIX ETF back in 2021 and am thankful to his idea then .2X of money after two years and took profits . Since October this year ,I have been buying 20 year plus treasuries ETF . I can not agree with his opinion this time .
So, as long as one is young enough, and lucky enough not to need to sell before maturity, we can do OK... Seems like the viable propositional set keeps shrinking...
There is a nice tailwind if the dollar goes lower. Foreign investment would likely come back to some extent in longer dated treasuries. It could soak up some level of the offerings. Right now those buyers have been largely out and on par have made the current situation worse than it would have been. If demand is increased, no need to keep pumping rates even higher. The treasury should have rolled the maturities into the long end of the curve when they could have!! Now, at the moment, they are really trapped. I cant see them “allowing” the maturities to be rolled over into the longs at the current rates bankrupting the US. Something will happen (to make something give!). The puzzle pieces will come together miraculously.
Bond prices will likely rebound higher in the short to medium-term. But I think Grant is right that higher rates are here to stay around for a long time.
I gave up on taking duration risk about 2 years ago. From then on it was only short term Treasuries and CDs for me. The yield curve has been inverted and the Fed has been raising the fund rate so this strategy has worked and has been a good diversifier to stocks.
@@robs2579 the funny part is that several bond "gurus" advised last year to go with long term Treasuries with the assumption that the Fed would start lowering the interest rate in 2023. Whoever followed this absurd advice lost money.
@@PassivePortfolios the gov will continue to inflate away it's debt, that is the only constant amidst the market uncertainty. Stocks are more preferred and inflation protected than bonds, ironically
![Interest Rates and Market Speculation with Financial Historian James Grant [2023]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/77CU6FGVRbQ/mqdefault.jpg)
![Interest Rates and Market Speculation with Financial Historian James Grant [2023]](/img/tr.png)
![Investment Strategies: Conflicting Trends [2023]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/7fOZXoT-l1s/mqdefault.jpg)
![High-Yield Bonds: Exploring Profitable Opportunities in Fixed Income [2023]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/s53zg022P98/mqdefault.jpg)
Thank you Consuelo. I enjoyed this one and I enjoyed Part II as well ( Interest Rates and Speculation ).
Well for the first time in many, many years Jim Grant has an interest rate to observe.
hahaha, good one. pretty amazing that a guy can make a career out of "interest rate observing" while they sat effectively at ZERO for a decade.
i does seem a good time for small caps which soared a week ago after last CPI reading. Mr. Jim Grant is just amazing as usual
That was fantastic!
Love
Jim Grant❤
JG is always a great interview! Thanks!
He's always interesting. Thanks.
James Grant is the Robert Crumb of investment commentary.
Great Channel IMO please allocate more time to fear and doubt orientated content & guests so that this will motivate sellers to complete their good work and asset price will be on bargain prices again
The solution to higher rates is simple. I’m getting out my WIN button and will be wearing it every day until inflation comes down to 2%. Thank you President Ford.
Whip inflation now😂..mid 70's Gerald Ford...what a rough time ⏲️
The solution to higher rate is even higher rates.
“The great inflations of our age are not acts of God. They are man-made or, to say it bluntly, government-made. They are the off-shoots of doctrines that ascribe to governments the magic power of creating wealth out of nothing and of making people happy by raising the ‘national income.’” - The Theory of Money and Credit by Ludwig von Mises
So two weeks ago bond market update with Mary Ellen Stanek it was the case for "Why Bonds are back" I'm confused? Maybe its just past my bedtime. Long, Longtime fan of Consuelo & James Grant. Cash remains king perhaps.
And how right that self-annointed prophet of interest rates turned out to be.
"Shinplasters" were paper currency valued at 25 cents. Hitherto coinages were tied to the amount of copper in a penny or silver dollar.
I love how these videos seem like they were filmed by PBS in the 90’s. Good content though
Laughed! Could it be her hair?
Nothing actionable here. I love folks like Grant & Jim Rogers. They talk & talk. But we don't learn a great deal.
National debt is still increasing. It's only becoming
less favorable.
We've had QE and QT and now I predict we'll soon have QF...Quantitative Forgiveness. Each year the Fed will simply write off a chunk of the Treasury Bonds it holds. A simple application of MMT. That will allow long rates to stay higher. Savers and foreign investors will get a better yield and not dump Treasuries. It will allow the US government to run high deficits without getting overwhelmed with debt and interest costs. When you can't pay then you won't!
We'll be back to QE, savers and retirees will go broke as long bond yields plunge back to 3 percent.
Don't disagree with more QE, but that keeps adding to government debt and QF may be a way around that. In 2008/9 there was a massive transfer of debt to the government, but this time it may be different because the huge debt is already with the government. Who wants the debt?
sound seems soft on this vid
Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is still watching this very informative content cheers Frank as subscriber 😊
He spoke of Volker and 70s inflation.The amount of the debt was a way much lower than now .The old economist tends to go into this argument with their vivid memory .33 trillion of the debts (122% of GDP)can not simply bear much higher level of the rate .The delinquency of the credit card and auto loans are growing quite rapidly.He speaks of historical trends etc.
The Japanese debt is 260% of GDP .Despite of the recent statement of the central banker of BOJ,the rates have not gone up much .There is not much power to observe the higher rate.I followed and invested in his idea of PHIX ETF back in 2021 and am thankful to his idea then .2X of money after two years and took profits .
Since October this year ,I have been buying 20 year plus treasuries ETF .
I can not agree with his opinion this time .
You mean the bear market in bonds just happened, right? Would be a shame to advise people against short-term bonds right now.
Chairman Jerome Powell does not have a PhD, his has a law degree from Georgetown. He does not have an economics degree.
The Super Bond Man Like Clark Kent.
So, as long as one is young enough, and lucky enough not to need to sell before maturity, we can do OK... Seems like the viable propositional set keeps shrinking...
A swing and a miss!
This is a permanent bear who has been wrong so many times😂
Did not know that Chair Powell was a Ph.D economist!
He took a long time to basically say nothing of substance or actionable...pretty disappointing for such a smart guest.
Thats generally Finance gurus for you
Agreed. Grant is like Jim Rogers. They talk a lot & are very interesting but they don't tell us a great deal.
There is a nice tailwind if the dollar goes lower. Foreign investment would likely come back to some extent in longer dated treasuries. It could soak up some level of the offerings. Right now those buyers have been largely out and on par have made the current situation worse than it would have been. If demand is increased, no need to keep pumping rates even higher. The treasury should have rolled the maturities into the long end of the curve when they could have!! Now, at the moment, they are really trapped. I cant see them “allowing” the maturities to be rolled over into the longs at the current rates bankrupting the US. Something will happen (to make something give!). The puzzle pieces will come together miraculously.
Grant is 2 years too late with his warning about bond duration risks. The Fed's tightening is almost finished so the bond bear market is nearly over.
Bond prices will likely rebound higher in the short to medium-term. But I think Grant is right that higher rates are here to stay around for a long time.
I gave up on taking duration risk about 2 years ago. From then on it was only short term Treasuries and CDs for me. The yield curve has been inverted and the Fed has been raising the fund rate so this strategy has worked and has been a good diversifier to stocks.
Lol sounds like you read too much WSJ... There is no indication interest rate increases are off the table, at all
@@robs2579 the funny part is that several bond "gurus" advised last year to go with long term Treasuries with the assumption that the Fed would start lowering the interest rate in 2023. Whoever followed this absurd advice lost money.
@@PassivePortfolios the gov will continue to inflate away it's debt, that is the only constant amidst the market uncertainty. Stocks are more preferred and inflation protected than bonds, ironically
Jim Grant the Gold bug
The Fed will have to start QE again.
Consuelo is more serious than this wannabe stand up comic.
Nothing funny about that saying.
40 years of being wrong 😳
Please tell us more?
The words he is searching for, are "Fatal Conceit".
Get to the point, Jim!