RECESSION?! Is My Money at Risk?! | Dr. Karsten Jeske (Big ERN) EXPLAINS
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 13 ม.ค. 2025
- Economist Dr. Karsten Jeske, who retired at 44, discusses the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut, its implications, and how the market anticipates and reacts to these changes.
He explains how markets often anticipate interest rate changes before they happen. Karsten challenges traditional views on inflation and unemployment, telling us that textbook models don't always match reality.
Karsten shares his personal investing experiences, covering both market highs and lows. He emphasizes the value of consistent investing regardless of market conditions.
For those eyeing retirement, Karsten dives into safe withdrawal rates. He advises paying close attention to current market valuations when planning. On the topic of mortgages, he offers clear guidance on when refinancing makes sense.
We also touch on economic history, discussing the Weimar Republic's hyperinflation. Karsten uses this to critique modern monetary theory, expressing skepticism about unrestricted money printing.
Throughout our conversation, Karsten explains complex economic concepts in accessible terms. He draws on his background as both an academic and a Wall Street professional to provide well-rounded insights.
Karsten, also known as Big ERN, is the author of EarlyRetirementNow.com, where he writes about safe withdrawal rates and personal finance while enjoying his retirement.
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Thanks for inviting me! This episiode turned out really great and all the topics covered were very timely!
My comment on "buy the rumor, sell the news" aged quite well. Right around the Fed decision was the trough for the 10y yield, around 3.6%. Now at 4%+ again. 30y mortgage rates also up again by 30+bps since then! So, the ideal time for a refi was right around the Fed decision. But we will see how the next few months work out...
Thank you for sharing your insights, Karsten! You've helped so many people with your blog and talks. I can't thank you enough for your selfless contributions to the personal finance field! Thank you for what you do 💙
Great guest choice! I always enjoy listening to Karsten's thoughts on economics and finance. Also appreciate his work in the FI space as well. Thanks Karsten and Paula!
Glad you enjoyed it!
Always enjoy hearing Big ERN’s perspective - he does an excellent job making sense of the markets and economy. His work on safe withdrawal rates for retirees is authoritative in my view and hugely valuable.
Smartest Person Ever!!!
He is absolutely brilliant!
Back in 2021-2022. Interest rates were so low, they had nowhere to go but up.
Can someone explain the rent comments here? If I purchased a building that has 4 apts in it @3% rate. Why does the changing interest rate 3 years after that affect the rental cost?
How do most of you guys still making profit? Even with the downturn of economy and ever increasing life standards
I do it by giving my money to all the scammers in the comments. There are some really great scammers that you can search for. They put fake comments all over you tube videos with fake likes.
Invest in an S&P 500 ETF, keep adding to it regardless of what the economy is doing. 5 years from now, you will definitely see increases in your portfolio. SPLG is a good one.
The continuously changing economic conditions in our society have made it necessary for people to find additional sources of income. I am a Data Scientist, but currently looking at the stock market to fuel my retirement goal of $4m. My only concern is the recent market crash. Do I stay 100% cash and wait for a bull market, or go ahead and invest anyway?
Buying the dip is actually a good investing strategy, but it is more ideal to find solutions in the specialized expertise of advisors.
@MaphylBrones I've worked in real estate for over 25 years and have neglected a major stock portfolio. However, I need a different plan now. Mind if I look up the professional guiding you, please?
Just give your money to the scammers in the comments. They will get you to your goal of 0 in no time!
13:20
How will the instability caused by fascism and climate change denial affect stock market returns going forward?
That's what I want to know too,
but I would also like to know the additional impacts of tariffs and poorly functioning government agencies.
MMT = just print money. 1:11:49
Straw man alert 🚨
It’s the theory that if you have a sovereign currency, you can print money without any revenue limitations because your nation cannot become insolvent, unless its lawmakers decide to declare it so. It supposes that rampant government spending will put new money into the economy, and the tax policy can be used to control the amount of money leaving the economy and also that taxes will keep inflation in check.
@@affordanything Part of the theory is that inflation is tantamount to a constraint on spending. To leave that part out and strawman the theory as one that recognizes no constraints is misleading and a failure to understand a crucial point of the theory.
Paula, I respect your journalistic credentials, but that puts the onus on you to represent a competing theory well. Your and Karsten's characterizations of MMT as having no spending constraints is a misrepresentation. That tack does nothing to further intelligent debate about the matter.
That’s a fair criticism, and I believe that you are correct. Karsten and I both briefly, and flippantly, mentioned MMT as a casual passing at the end of the interview. A rigorous deep dive into MMT is warranted - perhaps that should be the topic of my next interview with Karsten.
@@affordanything Thank you for your magnanimous reply, Paula. I appreciate it and find it consistent with the grace and emotional intelligence you consistently show on your podcast. Even better than going into it with Karsten, I would love to see you have Stephanie Kelton on. If you ever do, please ask her if the debt-to-GDP ratio is a constraint on spending, too. That's a question I've never seen her get asked, but that ratio worries me and I'd like to hear how she handles it. Or maybe a debate between Stephanie and Karsten or someone else would be good. Karsten doesn't yield the floor for give and take very well, so not sure he'd be the best for something like that. Thanks for the interview with him, in any case, and thanks for your work in general.