18:10 98 sometimes needs TJQ to make a straight, which also makes a straight for AK, which will be a huge part of a squeeze (or squeeze caller's) range
Correct answer. I can add „reverse implied odds“. @Pete: Do we chatpros now get teached so that we can evolve to real poker pros and maybe ask these questions to the fans in the future, so that they can answer, get teached… #circleoflizardlife.
AK isn’t a part of the squeeze callers range. I’m really curious y he said especially with the caller. Maybe our 98 is dominated by the callers T9 J9 Q9 K9 A9 A8? Ig being sandwiched is great either
Just wanna say Im enjoying the content. They way you frame your heuristic for range analysis and it's relationship to bet size really helped me a ton. Ran up a 500bb stack in micros yesterday hitting that flow state and really feeling like I could understand the table
Really enjoy this format - very educational to hear your throught process as your work through spots in real-time. And nice to know I am not the only one with the time bank running down so low 😃
At 24:25 with the KJo vs BB on the turn when villain leads you say you would be more likely to call or raise if you have a spade in your hand. Can you elaborate as to why that would be? I would assume not having the spade would be better since we are unblocking more of villains turn bluffs. Obviously without the spade we wouldn't want to raise but can't you explain in a little more detail your thought process please.
Turn with the AK hand is actually a spot where having the ace or king of spades in your hand is a bad thing, rather than a positive thing as stated. The opponent will be more likely to call the flop with those cards (with an unmade hand), and therefore it's more likely he's bluffing when you do not hold the ace or king of spades. Not easy to recognize that while playing, and on first thought it's easier to think the opposite is true, but that's the truth of the matter!
Im aware of this blocker effect but I don’t think it constitutes as much of the picture as you might think. A few things here in response to this: 1. Our spade also reduces the outs and therefore equity of these hands when villain has them. 2. In theory a flush draw is still entitled to a lot of the pot against our hand and range - it has a lot of implied odds and we sometimes fold the best hand vs it when it doesn’t get there. Deeming these hands ‘bluffs’ is misleading as their pot entitlement in EV is still quite high when checked to in position. They are much better for villain than having air in the river where pot entitlement is close to zero. 3. In GTO (solver land) the hands with the spades have higher EV than those without spades and are therefore further from a fold. Humans tend to over emphasise the blocker effects and how good it is when villain holds a flush draw here whole ignoring the extra equity and higher implied odds on rivers of having the spade when that card pairs. The effect you describe is more applicable on the river after draws miss than it is on the turn.
@@CarrotCornerPoker Good points, and without considering the flip side, your arguments are great. However, now taking into account the downsides, and not just the upsides - Blocking their bluffs is a greater negative than reducing their equity with some hands is a positive. I do agree with your turn call, but because of the below reasoning, not because of your suit reasoning, and because it's a more significant reason - Opponents in most pools that call flop with the correct range tend to bet too often when checked to on the turn. Can I ask - Do you call turn with other variants of AK? If yes, then the world is good. If no, then I would say there's an issue of assigning AK(with a spade as being better, when it's not)
V shouldn't squeeze 54/65/76s so 98s gets coolered by better straights but almost never coolers itself (Especially since AK is so prevalent in Vs range if QJT is on the board)? Same with flushes?
I have some thoughts about the AK hand on 58246sss board SBvBB. You mention that this is an overbluffed spot. It would seem that I don't really understand what spots are overbluffed or underbluffed. I would have thought that on a 3-flush board, where any 3 or 7 makes a straight, would be more likely to be underbluffed than overbluffed. Villain has condensed by calling flop, then polarised twice by betting turn and river. Spots where an opponent takes a condensing action on one street and then a polarising action on the next street (or vice-versa) tend to confuse me as well. I feel as though the only way to really know what spots are over/underbluffed is by having access to MDA. I assume Pete does.
Good Job Pete. Quick question about the B/X/B opportunity with A7c, if Villain is supposed to be probing most of his Kx and good 8x along with missed straight draws and gutters due to massive favourability, but most human players including myself will fail to protect our checking range on river and be really capped with Jx, pocket pairs and Ahigh. In your opinion, in similar spots with this hand in games, could we factor in this subjective but common leak and exploit accordingly, by putting the low SDV hands like medium to low Ahigh and most of our Tier 6 hands into our bluffing range? Especially in live games 3way pots IP and get checked to, where players will have extremely condensed and capped checking range, do you think the EV of betting big with these hands driven by our value range would be more higher than of checking's? Would love to hear your advice on this subject. Cheers!
I think most regs still understand that these hands are bluff catcher and will call a lot vs Bet-Check-Bet in this spot. It's very player dependent and some people do overfold but I don't think this is a case where a capped landing range equates to overfolding as it does in some spots where there's been less filtering.
@@CarrotCornerPoker thats true, thank you. is it safe to say that sticking to theoretical factors as primary consideration might be better especially against reg?
You are an absolute crusher! Thank you for CPS and the great content. Have you considered selling action and playing in some of the triton hold'em cash games? Even if there are super pros there, with a couple billionaire recs in there, I think you can crush in the long run!
Honestly, no. I might take a foray into live poker at some point but for now I quite like my life being simple and wholesome. I'm happy in my little bubble I guess.
Could I suggest that you consider creating a mini-course focused on bvb dynamics? I hear many players complaining about their shortcomings in those configurations. Personally, I have always struggled with them."
Something I like to think about to get over my short term annoyance at variance (and also to remind myself that variance comes in many forms) is: Imagine a reg berating me about their bad variance and angrily asking me “Yeah? Well, how often do you get a walk?!” Makes me chuckle to myself and I say it whenever I get annoyed about any aspect of the short term. Compare my annoyance to a hypothetical number of walks to BB played ratio and think of how ridiculous it would be to be annoyed at something so arbitrary. On another note, loving the content!
Awesome content as always Pete! Have to ask do you have any opinions on GG rake structure? I have been crushing microstakes, started with 50$ at the end of last year and now moving between 1.5k-2k$ playing 50nl. I havent played that pool a long time yet, but so far feels tougher to find a good winrate. Only things i find good in GG are leaderboards and bad beat jp. Also i havent really used any solvers/ theory study to learn. Only free content and my tournament poker backround. Feels like now is the time to invest money and time to studying more if i wanna reach higher stakes :) Would love to hear your thoughts on the subject! Anyways keep up the YT grind, insane free content EV
Impressive result mate, cant imagine if you start studying theory and physics of poker! Based on your experience in GG, as GG rakes 3bet pots preflop, do you think its better for players including myself who get used to paly 3bet or fold strategy on all position except BB and BTN to play on other sites? Or how would you adjust your preflop ranges with this rake structure? Would love to hear your thoughts and Pete's on this. Good Luck.
@@LivingKingKai I basically 3bet or fold against every reg and only deviate against weaker players. If there is a rec on bb i flat way more since i really want him in the pot. But overall 3 bet or fold worked for me just fine. I was checking some GTO wizard free stuff and it had solved ranges for GG poker 50nl preflop. Atleast theory wise it likes to flat more. It had flatting ranges from co, bu, sb and even a limping range from sb. Thats prob something i need to adjust now, since i was doing 3 bet or fold only before. Gl to your grind aswell!
Hey congrats on your promising results so far. I'm not sure about the GG rake structure. It's certainly worse than sites which don't rake preflop, but this isn't the only factor. Soft games can compensate for higher rake within reason. If you think the time is right to invest in strengthening the mechanics of your game in preparation for the next phase of your poker career then I would recomend the Carrot Poker School. It's a complete academic journey in poker theory and will help plug any holes in your understanding as well as arm you to the teeth with an understanding of all common nodes on the game tree and how ranges behave in them. You can find it here: www.carrotcorner.com/carrot-poker-school/
I don't play close to enough volume these days to know. The amount of volume needed to get a verdict close to a true win-rate in high standard deviation games like 200 ZOOM is a lot greater than what I've been playing in the last few years. I'd prefer to say insufficient sample size than quote you a fairly random observed win-rate over the small recent sample I have. When I played professionally, I'd run a 5-6bb/100 win-rate at these stakes with table selection, but this was a while ago now and the games were easier then. I will say that 200 ZOOM is a game I play mostly for content. If I was grinding for a living, this would not be my main choice of game.
I don't think I can find that fold with AA I reckon I just continue and if I get stacked I get stacked . Shrug Probably why I'm not the coach I guess. I like the format btw . Cheers
easy fold on that turn, if you are talking about 20:00 time, too many combos that are crushed AA there, no point for hero call there, looking for better spots :)
It might help to acknowledge that we can only beat bluffs in this spot; not value bets. Then consider how easy it is to bluff this spot after this action squence. Another thing that might help is getting rid of the word 'cooler' from your poker vocabulary 🙂
Wish these were 2-3 hours long. 👌🏽 love all the content. Thank you so much.
98 is straightminated by AK
18:10 98 sometimes needs TJQ to make a straight, which also makes a straight for AK, which will be a huge part of a squeeze (or squeeze caller's) range
Correct answer. I can add „reverse implied odds“.
@Pete: Do we chatpros now get teached so that we can evolve to real poker pros and maybe ask these questions to the fans in the future, so that they can answer, get teached… #circleoflizardlife.
AK isn’t a part of the squeeze callers range. I’m really curious y he said especially with the caller. Maybe our 98 is dominated by the callers T9 J9 Q9 K9 A9 A8? Ig being sandwiched is great either
Just wanna say Im enjoying the content. They way you frame your heuristic for range analysis and it's relationship to bet size really helped me a ton. Ran up a 500bb stack in micros yesterday hitting that flow state and really feeling like I could understand the table
thanks as always mr. carroters for the free training material that is both highly informative and entertaining 💋
Live play content is the best because it puts theory into practice. Showing application on a hand by hand basis is where it’s at for me
Yeah the good news is that I also find these the most fun to create.
What an amazing play. just gg , mate!
Really enjoy this format - very educational to hear your throught process as your work through spots in real-time. And nice to know I am not the only one with the time bank running down so low 😃
Very refreshing and motivating, good video as usual
Really liking your content
Best poker content on YT by a mile...Thanks Pete
Love this format
Excellent work Pete!
This was excellent, well played sir 💯 👌
Thanks, 'Sean who folded 99'
amazing content, thank you so much.
At 24:25 with the KJo vs BB on the turn when villain leads you say you would be more likely to call or raise if you have a spade in your hand. Can you elaborate as to why that would be? I would assume not having the spade would be better since we are unblocking more of villains turn bluffs. Obviously without the spade we wouldn't want to raise but can't you explain in a little more detail your thought process please.
In the first AK hand would it be a better play to check jam the river? To get rivered straights to fold? Since we hold the Aof spades.
Love to see more of you sitting there with your coffee playing poker.
Turn with the AK hand is actually a spot where having the ace or king of spades in your hand is a bad thing, rather than a positive thing as stated. The opponent will be more likely to call the flop with those cards (with an unmade hand), and therefore it's more likely he's bluffing when you do not hold the ace or king of spades. Not easy to recognize that while playing, and on first thought it's easier to think the opposite is true, but that's the truth of the matter!
Im aware of this blocker effect but I don’t think it constitutes as much of the picture as you might think. A few things here in response to this:
1. Our spade also reduces the outs and therefore equity of these hands when villain has them.
2. In theory a flush draw is still entitled to a lot of the pot against our hand and range - it has a lot of implied odds and we sometimes fold the best hand vs it when it doesn’t get there. Deeming these hands ‘bluffs’ is misleading as their pot entitlement in EV is still quite high when checked to in position. They are much better for villain than having air in the river where pot entitlement is close to zero.
3. In GTO (solver land) the hands with the spades have higher EV than those without spades and are therefore further from a fold. Humans tend to over emphasise the blocker effects and how good it is when villain holds a flush draw here whole ignoring the extra equity and higher implied odds on rivers of having the spade when that card pairs. The effect you describe is more applicable on the river after draws miss than it is on the turn.
@@CarrotCornerPoker
Good points, and without considering the flip side, your arguments are great.
However, now taking into account the downsides, and not just the upsides - Blocking their bluffs is a greater negative than reducing their equity with some hands is a positive.
I do agree with your turn call, but because of the below reasoning, not because of your suit reasoning, and because it's a more significant reason -
Opponents in most pools that call flop with the correct range tend to bet too often when checked to on the turn.
Can I ask - Do you call turn with other variants of AK?
If yes, then the world is good.
If no, then I would say there's an issue of assigning AK(with a spade as being better, when it's not)
V shouldn't squeeze 54/65/76s so 98s gets coolered by better straights but almost never coolers itself (Especially since AK is so prevalent in Vs range if QJT is on the board)? Same with flushes?
Yeah pretty much
I have some thoughts about the AK hand on 58246sss board SBvBB. You mention that this is an overbluffed spot. It would seem that I don't really understand what spots are overbluffed or underbluffed. I would have thought that on a 3-flush board, where any 3 or 7 makes a straight, would be more likely to be underbluffed than overbluffed. Villain has condensed by calling flop, then polarised twice by betting turn and river. Spots where an opponent takes a condensing action on one street and then a polarising action on the next street (or vice-versa) tend to confuse me as well. I feel as though the only way to really know what spots are over/underbluffed is by having access to MDA. I assume Pete does.
Is your course good enough to beat the gg rush games?
Good Job Pete. Quick question about the B/X/B opportunity with A7c, if Villain is supposed to be probing most of his Kx and good 8x along with missed straight draws and gutters due to massive favourability, but most human players including myself will fail to protect our checking range on river and be really capped with Jx, pocket pairs and Ahigh. In your opinion, in similar spots with this hand in games, could we factor in this subjective but common leak and exploit accordingly, by putting the low SDV hands like medium to low Ahigh and most of our Tier 6 hands into our bluffing range? Especially in live games 3way pots IP and get checked to, where players will have extremely condensed and capped checking range, do you think the EV of betting big with these hands driven by our value range would be more higher than of checking's? Would love to hear your advice on this subject. Cheers!
I think most regs still understand that these hands are bluff catcher and will call a lot vs Bet-Check-Bet in this spot. It's very player dependent and some people do overfold but I don't think this is a case where a capped landing range equates to overfolding as it does in some spots where there's been less filtering.
@@CarrotCornerPoker thats true, thank you. is it safe to say that sticking to theoretical factors as primary consideration might be better especially against reg?
“Fold Aces pre cause I know your leaks” 😂
You are an absolute crusher! Thank you for CPS and the great content. Have you considered selling action and playing in some of the triton hold'em cash games? Even if there are super pros there, with a couple billionaire recs in there, I think you can crush in the long run!
Honestly, no. I might take a foray into live poker at some point but for now I quite like my life being simple and wholesome. I'm happy in my little bubble I guess.
whats ur thoughts on regular tables (not zoom)?
and why dont you play those?
I think regular tables are great for winrate and that table selection is essential for professional grinders. I play zoom as it’s better for content.
@@CarrotCornerPoker oh. understand. same approach here. although table selection not possible here in germany where I´m from.
Could I suggest that you consider creating a mini-course focused on bvb dynamics? I hear many players complaining about their shortcomings in those configurations. Personally, I have always struggled with them."
Yeah this is certainly a very tough spot with ranges being super-wide. I'lll think about something along these lines.
Something I like to think about to get over my short term annoyance at variance (and also to remind myself that variance comes in many forms) is:
Imagine a reg berating me about their bad variance and angrily asking me “Yeah? Well, how often do you get a walk?!”
Makes me chuckle to myself and I say it whenever I get annoyed about any aspect of the short term. Compare my annoyance to a hypothetical number of walks to BB played ratio and think of how ridiculous it would be to be annoyed at something so arbitrary.
On another note, loving the content!
I love this. Variance is indeed so multifaceted but we pick and choose random appearances of it to get annoyed at.
16 combos of AK that opponent always has
Awesome content as always Pete! Have to ask do you have any opinions on GG rake structure? I have been crushing microstakes, started with 50$ at the end of last year and now moving between 1.5k-2k$ playing 50nl. I havent played that pool a long time yet, but so far feels tougher to find a good winrate.
Only things i find good in GG are leaderboards and bad beat jp. Also i havent really used any solvers/ theory study to learn. Only free content and my tournament poker backround. Feels like now is the time to invest money and time to studying more if i wanna reach higher stakes :) Would love to hear your thoughts on the subject! Anyways keep up the YT grind, insane free content EV
Impressive result mate, cant imagine if you start studying theory and physics of poker! Based on your experience in GG, as GG rakes 3bet pots preflop, do you think its better for players including myself who get used to paly 3bet or fold strategy on all position except BB and BTN to play on other sites? Or how would you adjust your preflop ranges with this rake structure? Would love to hear your thoughts and Pete's on this. Good Luck.
@@LivingKingKai I basically 3bet or fold against every reg and only deviate against weaker players. If there is a rec on bb i flat way more since i really want him in the pot. But overall 3 bet or fold worked for me just fine. I was checking some GTO wizard free stuff and it had solved ranges for GG poker 50nl preflop. Atleast theory wise it likes to flat more. It had flatting ranges from co, bu, sb and even a limping range from sb. Thats prob something i need to adjust now, since i was doing 3 bet or fold only before. Gl to your grind aswell!
Hey congrats on your promising results so far. I'm not sure about the GG rake structure. It's certainly worse than sites which don't rake preflop, but this isn't the only factor. Soft games can compensate for higher rake within reason.
If you think the time is right to invest in strengthening the mechanics of your game in preparation for the next phase of your poker career then I would recomend the Carrot Poker School. It's a complete academic journey in poker theory and will help plug any holes in your understanding as well as arm you to the teeth with an understanding of all common nodes on the game tree and how ranges behave in them. You can find it here: www.carrotcorner.com/carrot-poker-school/
can i request more jordan peterson and old school poker commentator impressions
Certainly won’t be a problem.
What's ur winrate on NL200 zoom if you don't mind?
break even low sample
I don't play close to enough volume these days to know. The amount of volume needed to get a verdict close to a true win-rate in high standard deviation games like 200 ZOOM is a lot greater than what I've been playing in the last few years. I'd prefer to say insufficient sample size than quote you a fairly random observed win-rate over the small recent sample I have. When I played professionally, I'd run a 5-6bb/100 win-rate at these stakes with table selection, but this was a while ago now and the games were easier then. I will say that 200 ZOOM is a game I play mostly for content. If I was grinding for a living, this would not be my main choice of game.
Pete
98 when the board is Tjq, you lose to better value AK
I don't think I can find that fold with AA
I reckon I just continue and if I get stacked I get stacked . Shrug
Probably why I'm not the coach I guess.
I like the format btw . Cheers
easy fold on that turn, if you are talking about 20:00 time,
too many combos that are crushed AA there, no point for hero call there, looking for better spots :)
It might help to acknowledge that we can only beat bluffs in this spot; not value bets. Then consider how easy it is to bluff this spot after this action squence. Another thing that might help is getting rid of the word 'cooler' from your poker vocabulary 🙂
98s is bad because you do not like it
easy