A friend viewed a flat in Amersham last week. 2 bed ground floor, garden in a pleasant road. But let's just say, it did not look like it's photos! (Tired, unkempt, in need of repair, and my friend could hear the people in the flat upstairs as if they were in the same room). Leasehold, high service charge. Anyway, it has a tonne of a viewings. My friend said to the agent she'd be very surprised they'd get offers let alone the asking due to the condition of the flat; the agent replied "well, all it takes is one mug to offer the asking and it keeps this whole thing going - not just for this property, but the road and the area, it's not right but it's how it works." I thought that was rather spot on.
When I did A level economics in the 80's the lecturer suggested we read the finance pages in the newspaper to understand what is happening. This was in the 80's and 40 years later I have never read advance warning of any of the financial crisis or any useful financial advice in the media. So I am really grateful to hear someone who goes against the weak journalism and speaks about the reality on the ground, because no one in main stream media is doing so.
I think a lot of this is to do with the fact the 'media class' have mortgages (prob high ltv if based in London or surrounding area), and also, speaking as an ex-journalist, what was mainstream 'serious journalism' has been replaced with short pieces, sound bite news and a lacking of taking the time to see the bigger picture, as well as journalists having the confidence to piece all the signs together and present a view based on that. But ultimately I think there's a fear-factor. Just a human-thing around not wanting to propagate fear by talking about what is happening. I am finding this with my 'outwardly affluent' friends - none of them want to talk or hear about the state of the UK economy. They might just say 'yeah, depressing' and quickly want to move on to another topic.
I feel the changes/drops or not in house prices are becoming increasingly irrelevant to the majority of ordinary working people. The majority of people can’t afford to buy a house, whether it’s 35 percent cheaper than it was or not. We don’t earn enough anymore, we have increasingly crappier “credit ratings” - even if we could meet the monthly payments, no lender will lend to us anyway. I mean …come on… , the majority of the population (over 50 percent) now can not meet the cost of living, running a house, energy, council tax, household bills AND keep eating, even on a full time wage. For the few of us still mortgaged and clinging on for dear life, inflation and massive increases in cost of living still to come, will ensure that many of us loose the home we have got in the coming couple of years, with no way to buy another . I think the reality is that it’s now only a small minority of the population in a relatively quite privileged position (not a criticism - just an observation) who can even contemplate buying a home, regardless of price drops or not. Most of us are totally fecked. As Charlie and Stig keep pointing out, this is simply an adult, realistic acknowledgement of what is ACTUALLY happening. Not “scaremongering”.
@@toiletrollholder indeed.I’m 52 and have a spare bedroom, which my ex- military son has just moved back into - he can’t afford to buy, I can’t afford to live alone anymore 🤷♀️
People are paying far higher interest on their debts/mortgages, and we also have the highest tax burden for years, and people still think house prices are going up it’s laughable really, it’s actually an impossibility. Working people are getting screwed because this government has given a load of money to their mates which needs to be repaid, and they have created a culture where millions of people can sit at home on the sick and be almost as well off as people who are working hard, the country is in a bad way, major changes are needed not just the usual blust and thunder we get from this incompetent government who never actually seem to get anything done!
I remember watching the short build up to the 2008 crash. All across the news the executive of Northan rock and other leading banks were dismissing the threat of a banking collapse here in the UK. Within a week Northan rock collapses, banks needed bailing out and the jobs market collapsed as businesses went into administration. The calm before the storm, thats where we are now. Teetering on the event horizon. Great videos, your measage doesn't go unheard and although its a shame to have to report on the calamity we're about to encounter, I and I'm sure others appreciate the honesty. It didnt come from the MSM before the 2008 crash and it sure won't come before this bust either.
Good points! Also: the build up for the 2008 crash could be seen as early as 2004 so it wasn't that short. But you are right there was noise circa 2005 when someone asked if MBS aren't just the latest emperor clothing ... followed by sustained MSM blathering for a good year... and then a short calm before the storm.
@@aidanapword I saw it coming in 2003 when the Panorama programme "Mortgage Madness" was broadcast. It is here on TH-cam in three parts if you want to watch. Halifax giving out 10 x salary mortgages / liar loans. I sold my Halifax shares the next day thinking they would lose their banking licence. Instead it all got swept under the carpet until the floor collapsed in 2008.
I just sold a house 25% drop from original listing..... not a decent other buyer interested. It's raucous.... nobody seems to want to take in the WHOLE economic situation....
I'm seeing drops in larger homes, but for 2nd step of the ladder, asking prices are still 10% higher than recent sold prices and noone wants to drop and usually just withdraws from market.
In Germany these kinds of dramatic price declines are looking all too realistic. Already down 10-15% in urban areas and no sign of things improving. Absolute bloodbath.
CHARLIE At about 14:20 minutes into "8 Reasons UK House Prices Will Collapse" (back in Autumn 2022) you definitely appeared to say that prices would be 10% lower by the end of that year and that by summer autumn 2023 we would have seen the bottom of this market. I have double checked and it really appears that's what you personally said. Why at 7 minutes into this video did you say that you have never ever given a timeline? Isn't that a timeline?
@@MovingHomewithCharlie 6:26 "I have never said that it would happen in 1 year" Was that true? I really hope I'm not pressing too much here, but I think you did at least that time indicate that you felt it would take about a year tops. When do you expect prices to _begin_ falling please? When will we see the start of this fall please?
Semi-detached and terraced properties in south Birmingham down 15-20% from peak so far. Indexes say nothing about this. No sign of the bottom yet. Our council tax will go up 10% this year, just another bit of squeeze to affordability.
honest money channel reports the same 20% real world. i wonder what will happen when the chinese defaults hit the world economy + the wars + USA election/boarder crisis + german economy and the fact that the uk is basically bankrupt(national debt&local councils), finally theres the pension issue where many will have to take a 'hair cut'.
Not seeing any house price falls in Birmingham B26 and B27 areas. 3 beds with ground floor extensions were 250k in 2022. Now asking around 270k. I know. I bought two.
@@ayyazmirza Just looked those up on Google Maps. This relates to what Charlie says: *regional variations will occur* and his price drops are averages. This is a good example of knowing local related factors. 👍 For the benefit of non-locals... B26 - just west of Birmingham Airport, north of the A45 (Coventry Road). Birmingham International Airport nearby, good rail links (local and Birmingham International), but also Birmingham Interchange HS2 station coming in the future - £3bn to be spend on a new district east of the M42 around the new interchange (housing, business parks etc). Jobs + Transport = demand. B27 - North West of Solihull. Solihull is improving their transport links around the station. Also, people are easily priced out of Solihull, so the surround areas are probably picking the overspill. Also not far from Jaguar Land Rover (large local employer). I'm looking more around B13, B14, B29, B30. ("Central south Birmingham" 🤔) Just shows that local research is important. I don't know B26 and B27 at all really!
@@ayyazmirza Ah yes, those areas are near Birmingham Airport (Huge business/residential area going in around HS2 Interchange station, plus JLR nearby and good transport) and near Solihull (resilient and probably has overspill into B27). Areas that probably would have been overlooked in recent years. My searches are more around B29/B30/B13/B14 ("Central South" Birmingham). Interesting to know how other areas are fairing!
Seeing what you say in SW London. Property prices have been held up by buyers moving out of central London. Check Richmond and Twickenham for those who need to see how Charlie is right about variation. However, there is a good chunk of probate property coming on to the market, not easy to sell and it is just sitting on the market and not selling. Not enough buyers want these properties. I fear sellers will "chase down the market".
in 3 areas of the South East that i keep an eye in recent months, a decent house with minimal renovation need and priced 10 % below true market price will attract a lot of interest and will go as fast as one weekend. I think people dont want to stretch themselves (or cant afford) to do more than minimal renovations.
It is still so hard to purchase a house for working class. Last week, i made 2 offers one is just 10 thousand less than the asking price and other is 6thousand above the asking price. Both get rejected 🙁
Flat in Edinburgh city centre identical to the one I rent just sold for £327k, this one sold in 2020 for £350k... nextdoor and same postcode and sq footage.
Some high level economics for the UK: UR still decreasing (published today) 13/02. This is not good for the BoE. Interest rates are trying to slow growth (inflation) which should in then lead to job cuts. This is happening, don’t get me wrong, but the ‘gig’ economy is doing well. People can still find plenty of ‘unskilled’ labour work. With low UR companies have to compete for talent and therefore high wages remain. Wage growth spurs inflation. The longer inflation stays, the longer Interest rates stay high -> longer interest rates stay high the more crushing rent and mortgages. We are seeing the devastation of the working and middle class. In turn young adults will not be able to get mortgages and purchase houses. Eventually resulting in LOWER and lower demand for housing. I don’t know where house prices will go but I can see the negative outlook.
Can’t speak for everywhere but I can absolutely see it in Hastings East Sussex. £15-£20k drops on 1 bed flats. They are going on so overvalued and sitting around. To be fair to some agents, one told me they valued a place £10k less than it went on for. Seller insisted they try it higher first 🙄
I'm seeing properties overvalued by 10% when they come to market, so any subsequent drop isn't an actual fall in price, just bringing them more in line with recent sale prices. Most sellers seem to just give up as they don't want to reduce prices.
House prices are pretty irrelevant if you need a home and have continued employment. If you haven’t over burdened yourself with the repayments from the start you should be oblivious to the underlying value. If you choose to sell you can expect any hit to be off set with your new purchase.
House prices will fall 50% during this crash which will finish in 2025/2026. Most peeps have no idea of the present and future economic carnage world wide.
In general I agree with you BUT 1. Someone is buying the big properties, they are not sitting empty. 2. Flats in Essex flat not fallen yet. However an Estate agent told me business is real slow and sellers need to accept a £20K price drop from last year
1. yes they are, but for much less money, hence the higher registered price falls in asking prices and sold prices at the high end 2. That's unsurprising. The smallest/cheapest properties are the ones falling the least, and in some areas may well be being propped up by much downsizing.
It’s so annoying Charlie. In my area West Wales there are some agents who are trying to price realistically and then there are others who are way overpricing. Well sellers are going to use the ones they think they are going to get more with. All thats happening though is they’ll have plenty of overpriced houses on their books that they’ll struggle to sell. Stagnating the market.
What is being overlooked is that we are in the middle of the 3rd industrial revolution (see Jeremy Rifkin: The Third Industrial Revolution, The Zero Marginal Cost Society, The End Of Work and Tony Seba: Rethinking Humanity). They have been predicting this for the past 30 years, ok 10 in the case of Mr Seba. Point is they have been bang on the money (no pun intended) all along. Based on what they forecast my expectation is that the fossil fuel industry and the internal combustion engine will become economically nonviable over the next 6 years. What we are seeing now Charlie is the beginning of this process. Note that it will affect all western economies. Tony Seba sees this as a "bright new dawn" for humanity but, think about it, how many jobs are dependant on these industries and, also the impact of AI technologies. I am apprehensive that we may be at the beginning of a 1929 type depression and for much the same reasons (think of the step change in technologies that happened 1900-1929). I fear your instincts may be correct Charlie but may be much more significant and profound than just the UK housing market. Having thoroughly depressed everyone I shall bid you all good night.
9:12 I thought fleecehold has nothing to do with leasehold or flats. This is a term for a freehold house located on an estate with third parties owning the estate. Worth asking for clarification on this issue on the conveyancer stream maybe?
I agree with you. We own the freehold of our block and self manage everything with a volunteer unpaid, experienced, residents management committee who all have a vested interest in maintaining services for the best price. There is no fleecing here, just graft to provide value for money and full accountability.
Fleecehold isn’t a real term. You’re right it was used to describe what you say, but I think it’s usage has crept into leaseholds as a criticism as well
Leaseholds are actually fleecing the owners especially flats with their extortionate service charges which do not seem to have to be justified by the company/housing associations managing the properties, there are lots of companies doing making a lot of money and doing extremely well from fleecing the leaseholders! Labour have said they will do something about it but I’m not holding my breath
Spencer, May I suggest you please read my earlier reply on this particular thread. It is easy to conflate all leasehold set-ups as bad. They are not. Thank you.
And Germany too ... though I haven't looked closely at the numbers. Evergrande and China might ripple out in the market exacerbating the CoL and inflation stuff too.
22:00 I think you have got that the wrong way round. As long as house prices keep increasing people feel rich and spend in other parts of the economy. Seeing the value of their house go down makes people feel poor and causes a recession. I have first hand experience of that in the 1990s. I was never in negative equity but could sell at a 20% loss six years after I bought a house in 1989. I'm not sure about your timings either. things could stretch out longer. It took me ten years to get my money back on the house I bought in 1989.
when the pension system implodes alot of old timers may need to sell propertts and even middle ages will have to sell or down size too and theres many other factors when next financial collapse comes to make prices lower..
The pension system was geared towards sensible bond yields etc. The upside of falling house prices is that all the pensioner BTLers might have second thoughts about their "portfolios".
@@MrDuncl yes but as interest rates likely will reach much higher .. bonds purchased in recent decade or so will become worthless and pension funds will lose alot of value for most people and many other knock on effects
Energy costs falling, food prices lowering, fixed interest rates mortgages dropping and still a mass lack of property and migration rising substantially each year, I think this kind of thinking is very hopeful and more than unlikely then likely but there’s always hope I guess.
I don’t think you’re going to see 50% falls …25% yes ……35% in. Some areas not all.. With cost of materials already gone up to build a house price to going up 10%/15% again in March & shortage or properties being built may be they won’t fall as much as expected but then the cost of living may force a collapse……but there is trouble brewing on the horizon…..
Car prices are another factor. New cars are up around 30% on average since 2019. This has resulted in used car prices being at riduculous prices due to lack of supply during the pandemic. New sales for Jan were down 15% YOY. Those who are remortgaging and need to buy a car could be in massive trouble.
True but in 2008 it was a global thing and the global permission (of sorts) bailouts and ZIRP ('emergency interest rates' which last 15 years!) ... this time I wonder if there is scope for BoE to "go it alone" ...
Interested in your opinion on my situation: I have a 2 bedroom flat in a SE England commuter town - it's gorgeous, 28% shared ownership. I have just gone to market and have interest out the door, but I cannot sell yet due to nomination period ending next Monday -- semi-identical flat had 4 asking price offers in 1 week in August 2023 (their flat is uglier lol). Now, I am selling my shared ownership flat for exactly the same price in full market value terms as I am paying for a 2 bed Victorian freehold house in London zone 3. Not gorgeous, but solid - ex-BTL recently un-tenanted. Is the London market collapsing, or is shared ownership the only way most young people can start building any equity at all, so it's ridiculously popular?
Won’t happen in Cheltenham, average 4 bed on a private estate near me. Friends put on market at £725k and sold to a young (30s) couple for £710k within a few weeks. The bank of Mum and Dad is strong in these parts and will keep propping up the market. I’ve seen some reductions but properties don’t hang around too long and prices still unfeasibly high (but family money is the thing propping things up). There are a lot of people with deep pockets out there still.
@@pilkers745 how do you mean? Influx of buyers from places like London and Oxford who see Cheltenham as good value and have pushed prices up during and since Covid (this is what I have heard)? Or something different? My example of my friends house on the face of it doesn’t make much sense. Let’s say that buying couple have an income of £150k combined, their purchase is still 5x their income, which suggests family money is helping a lot. In my road (less expensive as newish build but with social housing on the estate which keeps prices a bit more realistic), it still wouldn’t be easy for a young family to buy, as the bigger 4 beds go for up to £600k.
Evergrande. Where is the mainstream media on this? FT-paywalled stuff sometimes. Otherwise complete radio silence (as with so many other things now and in the past).
Hi Charlie, QUESTION ?????? Please can you make a video discussing whether or not the high number of ex-rental properties are having or going to have an effect on house prices? I am seeing a large number of very poorly maintained properties from ex-rentals. They need such a lot of work doing to them and a lot are flooding the market. There are fewer owner occupied houses to choose from - I am talking about terraced in the North West and West Yorkshire. However, I am seeing a small number of ex-rentals for sale which are renovated, but of those, recent roof works are showing poor workmanship with water ingress from roofs still not rectified despite agents saying owners will take another look. What I am getting at is that, on the surface, these houses 'appear' renovated but, in my opinion, it's surface stuff and there are cracks appearing structural rather than plaster work, painted over etc. So, this large amount of ex-rentals, which are not renovated, mostly in a very poor state, showing extensive black mould and old windows etc, alongside the ones just tarted-up, .... are these properties going to pull down th prices if unsold in another 6 - 12 months? I am asking this question in light of yout discussion on downsizers which are having an impact on lower value terraced properties. I have to add, not all ex-rentals are in poor condition. The odd one or two I have viewed are in good condition, and in some cases landlords are trying to sell with their tenants in situ.
Start by saying that the economy is (virtually) in recession now and that is well communicated. Indeed your message is clear though a note from a property investor and degree in Maths, I look at data and all indecies have elements of judgment though if you take trend of all shows direction and trend small drops overall - neither here nor there picking fault with certain indecies Indeed house prices not going up, though at the moment your approximation and prediction of 35 per cent drop about 33 per cent off latest ONS figures (albeit 6 months off) and with the lack of any data to support other than anecdotes. I understand you are saying buy but don't overpay, trouble is what with that prediction does not add up that if you believe this drop it only makes sense to rent rather than buy.
Bear in mind Charlie's 35 % drop is about house prices , not average house prices. With popular than ever downsizing, housing prices can fall much larger % than average house prices (more expensive large houses change hand than before).
Where is the evidence that downsizing is more popular than ever? Just imagine you are sitting in your nice £750K home. We are told by Charlie that these houses (along with flats) are the most difficult to sell so will have the biggest price falls. So you think to yourself - lets sell up and buy somewhere smaller to release some cash. You then find out you can only get £650 for your place but the semis you have your eye on are keeping their value much better (again according to Charlie) . Oh and to move it is going to cost you around £50,000 in stamp duty, removal costs, estate agent fees and solicitor costs. And then there is the associated stress of moving. Why would you bother?! @@SilverWong-yo5iu
Do you have any actual data to back up "the great downsizing?" You state elsewhere that larger properties have seen some of the larger falls in price. So what you are saying is that large numbers of people are going to sell up at a time when their large house has fallen significantly in price, incurring huge costs (lets say circa £50,000) and buy somewhere smaller where prices are holding up really well. It does not pass the smell test.
Why do you (incorrectly) assume they’re “incurring losses”? If they’ve owned said large detached house for 5 years or more there will still be a healthy gain even after the falls of the last year or so.
I did not state that they are "incurring losses". I said they will be "incurring huge costs." Estate agent fees, removal costs, solicitor costs and of course the wonderful stamp duty. Could easily be £50,000 Add on the stress of moving then it seems very unlikely to me that larger numbers of people than usual are going to choose to downsize in this market. I asked if you have any actual data. Do you? @@MovingHomewithCharlie
@@Leapops and yet here you still are! I repeatedly state that there's no data to back me up, that's the problem. (Also there's no data for the future, anywhere, obvs, and so we won't know until 2026 will we?)
In the absence of data it is usual to apply logic. I gave my logic above. All you did was misquote what I had written. What is your counter logic that explains why people are going to give themselves huge costs for the privilege of downsizing? @@MovingHomewithCharlie
When i look at areas that affect me, i think youre wrong about 35% - which means nothing because my sector of interest is primarily the cheapest 3 bed houses in cities. But when I look at the london market, particularly the help-to-buy clusterfk, I think you're right. But since you're talking about the UK, and im talking about south manchester, Liverpool and Coventry, we arent taoking avout the same thing. 😂
@@andrewlam5021 there's a lot of high end in South Manchester. Low end is very limited and rents are high, so I don't think the 220k 3 beds will lose value. Stockport is another matter.
Hold on, we ain't reached 2025, we are yet to see the demographic time bomb for who is going to buy 3 bedroom detached houses over the next few years. Would the doubters about the 30/35٪ drop explain who the buyers of these properties are going to be. A whole tier by the numbers is getting harder. Birth rate per 1000. 1964, 14. 1974, 13.98. 1984, 12.99. And 2023 was the most insolvencies since 2008/2009. I think he going to about right. FFS it could be worse.
How can you prop up and maintain the current housing prices with a declining economy? Either the house prices are maintained because the economy starts to rebound and thrive or house prices fall to reflect the failing economy you can’t have high prices with a tanking economy one has to shift. I agree with your expectations Charlie 100% I’m standing on that beach shouting tsunami too 😂😂😂
Yes I did. It has taken longer than I expected, but also we won't know what Autumn 23 prices were doing for another 3 months until the Land Registry publishes it's "March" completions reflecting autumn 2023 deals.
I bought a property in need of modernisation back at the start of October. Was it a good price? Who knows. Can I afford it, yes. Is it better than renting, yes. Do I want prices to fall, no. Its bad for everyone. Do I think 35%? I hope not, 15% combined with stagnant prices would be better swallowed but, its dependant on too much to worry about.
@@MovingHomewithCharlie Time will tell. House prices only matter once you want or need to sell. Overpaying is still a vague term, I honestly think it that mostly relates to those stuck in bidding wars back at the peak of the market. I don't doubt I see a lot of crazy prices still but generally prices are still up
If you count total mortgage cost house prices are up 75% 😂. I think you're not wrong yet.. my guess would be they're down 20% right now and who is to say they wont go that extra 15%.
@@MovingHomewithCharliethe “falls to come” are a nonsense, you’ve been stringing people along this narrative for years all to give yourself a platform and some TH-cam revenue.
Let's say a house was fairly priced last year at 300k,it will have sold by now, 35% off is 100 grand off, never going to happen, fair priced stuff are still the same prices, yes vastly overpriced property will take a knock.
@@MovingHomewithCharlie well, firstly your not going to see a fairly priced house worth, say 300k last year be 200k this year, or any time in the future, secondly most people will owe say, 80% of when they bought the property, they're absolutely unable to reduce it 35%, 3rd,people with loads of equity or fully owned property are unlikely to be pushed to need to reduce it, 4th rates aren't too bad now, seems the worst is over, 5th plenty of money around, not like in the 90s when I started buying properties, 6th I saw something the other day about 99%mortgages, I don't know anything about them, but it'll actually put up prices. I've been buying, renting, flipping properties since early 90s, so I do have some idea. Having said that I nearly got wiped out in 2008 credit crunch days, I was totally exposed on property and couldn't sell, I actually had one sell (forced) for 50%less, problem in those days wasn't rates, just that no one would lend and that happened overnight, leaman bros and all that, I've worked thru it now but it ruined a good few years.
I started to notice a lot of random acts of anger around London over the last 6 months, has anyone else noticed that? I noticed it when I first moved to London in 2009 as well.
Peak Prosperity did a video a while back about an experiment where rats in a cage are given electric shocks and then they start attacking other rats. People are being shocked at the moment by rising rents, mortgages, utilities, groceries etc. They're getting angry and taking it out on random people on the street.
Yes, I’ve noticed it in small towns, big cities, suburbs. It’s why I will be getting a couple of German Shepherds soon and need to move to a bigger place. After experiencing the housing market for the first time in 20 years, I realised how few people have a moral compass. I’m grateful for my mild Catholic upbringing with a mother who was gentle and kind and guided me to always try to be good.
@@EastoftheDanube Diversity plays a key part. When you mix multiple conflicting cultures you get an uptick in crime and disharmony. If you want safety and community spirit choose areas that lack diversity.
Lots of “when the financial market collapses” and “When the Pension System implodes” in these comments, go on then lads, when are these hypothetical scenarios going to happen? Also, I’ll never understand this bitterness from you doom mongerers around sellers pricing their properties too high. They own the house, they choose the price. If they aren’t forced to sell, which is 95% of the selling market, they won’t.
Can’t understand why Charlie always works on nominal prices not inflation factored actual prices. Actual prices gives a much greater measure of true value.
I don't get real prices as everyone's wage increases at different rates, so taking a price index and adjusting house prices for it doesnt make sense for most, except for economists and others with an interest in the general (macro) movement of a market
@@sjt627 I mean when inflation is a couple of percent a year the effect on stagnant house prices is small but when inflation is high say anywhere between 10 and 15 percent, house prices are falling behind at an accelerated rate and becoming more affordable in real terms
I honestly think the 35% is a bit too strong. It infers some properties will drop as high as 50% which I just don't see. However this is just like Labour and their £28bn pledge. Your detractors are just waiting for you to reduce it so that they can use it as an angle of attack. To quote you: I would just tell them to rearrange the following two words into a well know phrase "off, fuck".
I'm in a county outside of London, so commuter belt land. Houses especially 2 beds, are selling in the last couple of weeks at the fastest pace I've seen since when we came out of lockdown and stamp duty was cut. Like a buying frenzy. Obvs not privy to sold prices, but suspect they are holding out and getting the inflated prices as they are rejecting lower offers (as I know!) then selling. Going to market asking prices are stable here...and high. I can hear you but can't unfortunately see it round here where I need to buy. Suspect people are cash rich around here, horrifically.
Same - I'm in a Herts county with excellent transport links into London (Overground, underground station and mainline - all 18-30 minutes into central zone 1). 2 beds are absolutely flying out. Especially buying schemes like shared ownership, sold before they're finished. All the priced-out-of-London young people are desperately buying up the housing stock here in a certain type of home. Multimillion pound houses sit for months. I can't see a drop in prices around here, at all.
I wonder if there's a few factors going on. People are desperate to get out of the very corrupt, expensive rental market and they are trusting the media and mortgage companies with their 'house prices are rising' rhetoric....... Look what happened after COVID! We live in a country full of sheep, unfortunately 😞
I asked an FOI question to ONS as to why they compare one month in the current year to the same month in the previous year. e.g. July 22 to Jul 21. They replied it is a well known statistical practice to compare different months in statistics. I agree 100%. However you can not compare July 22 to July 21 as they would cover all transactions from 1st July 2021 to 31st July 2022. They are full months and that is 13 months. If you compared it to Aug 2021 to July 2022 that is a year. July 2022 they reported a yearly rise of 15.5% and the true rise was 8.4%. Do the sums.
I've lost and gained and gained divorced and divorced because because because of and now work for myself and life is realy good.New partner and a wealthy one it's a learning process but big thing is this. MOST OF U ARE ASSES AND MATERIALISTIC AND HOUSES ARE NOT THE WAY TO MAKE MONEY U ARE CONDITIONED BY THE CRAPPY SYSTEM THAT RUNS U LIVES.Think small cos the little things make big big things and please educated u kids the rite way.Going down soon housing market its a plan its not going to get better well not in the way u all want.U baby boomers.
@@MovingHomewithCharlie Charlie Charlie , your on cuckoo land, all your predictions about 35% drop in house prices failed miserably. I feel sorry for your sheep listening to your jackanory stories. You waffle on each and every day that you have 25 years experience in the property Industry and you know the market. Well don't ever get the urge to gamble because you will go bankrupt. Listened to you and your fellow rep stig for a few months now, blowing cold smoke from your ears predicting the market. You couldn't predict a wet paper bag falling in front of you. You had your whole channel thinking prices were falling , then you back track and say no no I didnt say that, I meant I 2025. When 2025 comes you will back track again. Its all about money for you . Why do you charge for telephone consultation if your out to help the people. Your are fleecing your audience's pockets, giving them false hope about the market and what you would do in this market. Your the dreamer, and high at the same time. You can't accept when you habe been proven wrong. Now carry on with your doom and gloom market predictions which will come back to haunt you 😉 tapa tapa.
@@MovingHomewithCharlieYou talk a load of bull 🐂 . Feel sorry for all the people who listen to you and use your services . Complete shambles of a channel.
To be fair Charlie's 35% prediction is in nominal terms. Since the peak in June 2022 we've had 15% inflation and an 8% house price fall. So 23%. It should bottom out at 20% and 12% so 32%.
@@MovingHomewithCharlie Yes. My mistake. Corrected. But why people think you predicted a 35% fall in headline price is beyond me. Inflation still above 4.3% Wages growing 6%. No more base rate reduction til at least the August meeting.
Anechdotes and ignoring all data as it shows that it was not what he wanted and denying indices are accurate when they don't say what he wants. Credibility is hurting rather than just saying he made a prediction, and that any prediction can be wrong as with predicting who will win the world cup! A bit of honesty was amiss in this video or maybe he is deluded. In no area has prices fallen by 50% as he predicted and is obviously false if just look at asking prices being around the same or only slightly down and valuations by valuers only being slightly down. He made a prediction and got it wrong so what? but to dodge and pretend like he is seems childish and dishonest (or deluded). Personally I predict rises soon when interest rates drop but maybe that prediction will be off.
You’re one of the numpties who hasn’t listened to the 2025 part of my expectations and not realised that it’s not 2025 yet. Of course nowhere has fallen 50% YET. You great noodle. 🤦🏻♂️
I have been following you a few years now @movinghomewitcharlie and after watching the Russel Quirke video. I now believe there are two sides to the coin. Here is my honest opinion. I’m losing faith in what you have been saying Charlie. You do seem to be moving the date of the housing price decline each year. At this moment, there aren’t any massive price reductions here in the NW of the UK, I believe it’s the opposite. You may have lost a subscriber here and I was watching your show live when you celebrated the milestone of subscribers with the bottle of champagne. Sorry Charlie 😢
The good news is that as of February 2024, house prices have risen for four months in a row and will continue to rise when interest rates come down. People who can't afford a decent house will always try to talk the market down.
A friend viewed a flat in Amersham last week. 2 bed ground floor, garden in a pleasant road. But let's just say, it did not look like it's photos! (Tired, unkempt, in need of repair, and my friend could hear the people in the flat upstairs as if they were in the same room). Leasehold, high service charge. Anyway, it has a tonne of a viewings. My friend said to the agent she'd be very surprised they'd get offers let alone the asking due to the condition of the flat; the agent replied "well, all it takes is one mug to offer the asking and it keeps this whole thing going - not just for this property, but the road and the area, it's not right but it's how it works."
I thought that was rather spot on.
When I did A level economics in the 80's the lecturer suggested we read the finance pages in the newspaper to understand what is happening. This was in the 80's and 40 years later I have never read advance warning of any of the financial crisis or any useful financial advice in the media. So I am really grateful to hear someone who goes against the weak journalism and speaks about the reality on the ground, because no one in main stream media is doing so.
I think a lot of this is to do with the fact the 'media class' have mortgages (prob high ltv if based in London or surrounding area), and also, speaking as an ex-journalist, what was mainstream 'serious journalism' has been replaced with short pieces, sound bite news and a lacking of taking the time to see the bigger picture, as well as journalists having the confidence to piece all the signs together and present a view based on that.
But ultimately I think there's a fear-factor.
Just a human-thing around not wanting to propagate fear by talking about what is happening.
I am finding this with my 'outwardly affluent' friends - none of them want to talk or hear about the state of the UK economy. They might just say 'yeah, depressing' and quickly want to move on to another topic.
you were likely taught keynesian style 'economics' basically politicians economic system of lies
look into austrian economic theory
I usually find the signals within the MSM, but its buried amongst all of the positive spin.
Some places in Manchester already seen 10-15% drop
I feel the changes/drops or not in house prices are becoming increasingly irrelevant to the majority of ordinary working people. The majority of people can’t afford to buy a house, whether it’s 35 percent cheaper than it was or not. We don’t earn enough anymore, we have increasingly crappier “credit ratings” - even if we could meet the monthly payments, no lender will lend to us anyway. I mean …come on… , the majority of the population (over 50 percent) now can not meet the cost of living, running a house, energy, council tax, household bills AND keep eating, even on a full time wage.
For the few of us still mortgaged and clinging on for dear life, inflation and massive increases in cost of living still to come, will ensure that many of us loose the home we have got in the coming couple of years, with no way to buy another . I think the reality is that it’s now only a small minority of the population in a relatively quite privileged position (not a criticism - just an observation) who can even contemplate buying a home, regardless of price drops or not. Most of us are totally fecked. As Charlie and Stig keep pointing out, this is simply an adult, realistic acknowledgement of what is ACTUALLY happening. Not “scaremongering”.
@@toiletrollholder indeed.I’m 52 and have a spare bedroom, which my ex- military son has just moved back into - he can’t afford to buy, I can’t afford to live alone anymore 🤷♀️
@@toiletrollholder ah that’s really very kind. The same to you and your family.
People are paying far higher interest on their debts/mortgages, and we also have the highest tax burden for years, and people still think house prices are going up it’s laughable really, it’s actually an impossibility.
Working people are getting screwed because this government has given a load of money to their mates which needs to be repaid, and they have created a culture where millions of people can sit at home on the sick and be almost as well off as people who are working hard, the country is in a bad way, major changes are needed not just the usual blust and thunder we get from this incompetent government who never actually seem to get anything done!
High energy costs, food etc. £10 for a subway sandwich these days too ! We are 30% poorer without the interest rates.
I remember watching the short build up to the 2008 crash. All across the news the executive of Northan rock and other leading banks were dismissing the threat of a banking collapse here in the UK. Within a week Northan rock collapses, banks needed bailing out and the jobs market collapsed as businesses went into administration.
The calm before the storm, thats where we are now. Teetering on the event horizon.
Great videos, your measage doesn't go unheard and although its a shame to have to report on the calamity we're about to encounter, I and I'm sure others appreciate the honesty. It didnt come from the MSM before the 2008 crash and it sure won't come before this bust either.
Good points!
Also: the build up for the 2008 crash could be seen as early as 2004 so it wasn't that short.
But you are right there was noise circa 2005 when someone asked if MBS aren't just the latest emperor clothing ... followed by sustained MSM blathering for a good year... and then a short calm before the storm.
@@aidanapword I saw it coming in 2003 when the Panorama programme "Mortgage Madness" was broadcast. It is here on TH-cam in three parts if you want to watch. Halifax giving out 10 x salary mortgages / liar loans. I sold my Halifax shares the next day thinking they would lose their banking licence. Instead it all got swept under the carpet until the floor collapsed in 2008.
People need to wake up this is not scaremongering.
Hard times ahead unfortunately you must be blind if you don’t see it coming
I just sold a house 25% drop from original listing..... not a decent other buyer interested. It's raucous.... nobody seems to want to take in the WHOLE economic situation....
location?
Saw a few houses dropping locally like stones 320 to 270 . 350 to 290 . 450 to 380. People are in the shit and it’s starting to show .
Place? I dont see
Same in Berkshire. Two flats next to me was 375 now 290
Same here (Yorkshire)
I'm seeing drops in larger homes, but for 2nd step of the ladder, asking prices are still 10% higher than recent sold prices and noone wants to drop and usually just withdraws from market.
In Germany these kinds of dramatic price declines are looking all too realistic. Already down 10-15% in urban areas and no sign of things improving. Absolute bloodbath.
10%? Bloodbath? What's 70% then, apocalypse?
I think it is a bloodbath when prices fall meaningfully and there is nothing there to halt the decline.
CHARLIE At about 14:20 minutes into "8 Reasons UK House Prices Will Collapse" (back in Autumn 2022) you definitely appeared to say that prices would be 10% lower by the end of that year and that by summer autumn 2023 we would have seen the bottom of this market. I have double checked and it really appears that's what you personally said. Why at 7 minutes into this video did you say that you have never ever given a timeline? Isn't that a timeline?
The timeline was something I said in this video has taken longer than I initially expected. I’m not right about everything!
@@MovingHomewithCharlie 6:26 "I have never said that it would happen in 1 year" Was that true?
I really hope I'm not pressing too much here, but I think you did at least that time indicate that you felt it would take about a year tops. When do you expect prices to _begin_ falling please? When will we see the start of this fall please?
@marcus 22:19 this video
No one can consistently predict the economy or house prices.
Semi-detached and terraced properties in south Birmingham down 15-20% from peak so far. Indexes say nothing about this. No sign of the bottom yet. Our council tax will go up 10% this year, just another bit of squeeze to affordability.
honest money channel reports the same 20% real world. i wonder what will happen when the chinese defaults hit the world economy + the wars + USA election/boarder crisis + german economy and the fact that the uk is basically bankrupt(national debt&local councils), finally theres the pension issue where many will have to take a 'hair cut'.
Not seeing any house price falls in Birmingham B26 and B27 areas. 3 beds with ground floor extensions were 250k in 2022. Now asking around 270k. I know. I bought two.
@@ayyazmirza Just looked those up on Google Maps. This relates to what Charlie says: *regional variations will occur* and his price drops are averages. This is a good example of knowing local related factors. 👍 For the benefit of non-locals...
B26 - just west of Birmingham Airport, north of the A45 (Coventry Road). Birmingham International Airport nearby, good rail links (local and Birmingham International), but also Birmingham Interchange HS2 station coming in the future - £3bn to be spend on a new district east of the M42 around the new interchange (housing, business parks etc). Jobs + Transport = demand.
B27 - North West of Solihull. Solihull is improving their transport links around the station. Also, people are easily priced out of Solihull, so the surround areas are probably picking the overspill. Also not far from Jaguar Land Rover (large local employer).
I'm looking more around B13, B14, B29, B30. ("Central south Birmingham" 🤔)
Just shows that local research is important. I don't know B26 and B27 at all really!
@@ayyazmirza Ah yes, those areas are near Birmingham Airport (Huge business/residential area going in around HS2 Interchange station, plus JLR nearby and good transport) and near Solihull (resilient and probably has overspill into B27). Areas that probably would have been overlooked in recent years.
My searches are more around B29/B30/B13/B14 ("Central South" Birmingham). Interesting to know how other areas are fairing!
Seeing what you say in SW London. Property prices have been held up by buyers moving out of central London. Check Richmond and Twickenham for those who need to see how Charlie is right about variation. However, there is a good chunk of probate property coming on to the market, not easy to sell and it is just sitting on the market and not selling. Not enough buyers want these properties. I fear sellers will "chase down the market".
in 3 areas of the South East that i keep an eye in recent months, a decent house with minimal renovation need and priced 10 % below true market price will attract a lot of interest and will go as fast as one weekend. I think people dont want to stretch themselves (or cant afford) to do more than minimal renovations.
Exactly , the cost of improvement is very high...So a nicely done house has value
It is still so hard to purchase a house for working class. Last week, i made 2 offers one is just 10 thousand less than the asking price and other is 6thousand above the asking price. Both get rejected 🙁
Flat in Edinburgh city centre identical to the one I rent just sold for £327k, this one sold in 2020 for £350k... nextdoor and same postcode and sq footage.
Surely over pricing a property is a form of fraud and there should be a law against it.
It’s not illegal to set any asking price you like. It doesn’t mean someone will pay for it! Overpricing is a form of estate agency self harm.
Overprice a property in a rising market and it will soon get to that price. Overpricing in a falling market gets you nowhere.
Bring on the 50% drop 😂😂😂 some people are ready for the 💩 to hit fan
😱
It could go that far
@@exploringsuffolk 😎
Or buy 1 get 1 free. That would be even better 🤣👍
@@RabJ973 ye if you don't have a tone of debt 🤣
Some high level economics for the UK:
UR still decreasing (published today) 13/02.
This is not good for the BoE. Interest rates are trying to slow growth (inflation) which should in then lead to job cuts.
This is happening, don’t get me wrong, but the ‘gig’ economy is doing well. People can still find plenty of ‘unskilled’ labour work.
With low UR companies have to compete for talent and therefore high wages remain. Wage growth spurs inflation.
The longer inflation stays, the longer Interest rates stay high -> longer interest rates stay high the more crushing rent and mortgages.
We are seeing the devastation of the working and middle class. In turn young adults will not be able to get mortgages and purchase houses.
Eventually resulting in LOWER and lower demand for housing. I don’t know where house prices will go but I can see the negative outlook.
Can’t speak for everywhere but I can absolutely see it in Hastings East Sussex. £15-£20k drops on 1 bed flats. They are going on so overvalued and sitting around. To be fair to some agents, one told me they valued a place £10k less than it went on for. Seller insisted they try it higher first 🙄
This is consistent with reports, there are ups ad downs throughout the UK (averaging to small drops overall) and Hastings was near top region of falls
I'm seeing properties overvalued by 10% when they come to market, so any subsequent drop isn't an actual fall in price, just bringing them more in line with recent sale prices. Most sellers seem to just give up as they don't want to reduce prices.
House prices are pretty irrelevant if you need a home and have continued employment. If you haven’t over burdened yourself with the repayments from the start you should be oblivious to the underlying value. If you choose to sell you can expect any hit to be off set with your new purchase.
Unless you’re not making a new purchase, or if you’re downsizing.
Agreed that’s how we should look at our homes,trouble is it’s also a personal asset that has the effect of making us feel better off
House prices will fall 50% during this crash which will finish in 2025/2026. Most peeps have no idea of the present and future economic carnage world wide.
Are you stupid?
In general I agree with you BUT
1. Someone is buying the big properties, they are not sitting empty.
2. Flats in Essex flat not fallen yet.
However an Estate agent told me business is real slow and sellers need to accept a £20K price drop from last year
1. yes they are, but for much less money, hence the higher registered price falls in asking prices and sold prices at the high end
2. That's unsurprising. The smallest/cheapest properties are the ones falling the least, and in some areas may well be being propped up by much downsizing.
It’s so annoying Charlie. In my area West Wales there are some agents who are trying to price realistically and then there are others who are way overpricing. Well sellers are going to use the ones they think they are going to get more with. All thats happening though is they’ll have plenty of overpriced houses on their books that they’ll struggle to sell. Stagnating the market.
Happening everywhere unfortunately. The over valuers will be the first to go under when they don't have any income from sales though.
@@Bubbles77418 oh that's interesting. It seems like they are clinging as Charlie said, and that cling is what he didn't anticipate.
I think there still will be a massive fall . In house prices falls .
When as mortgage rates decreasing
What is being overlooked is that we are in the middle of the 3rd industrial revolution (see Jeremy Rifkin: The Third Industrial Revolution, The Zero Marginal Cost Society, The End Of Work and Tony Seba: Rethinking Humanity). They have been predicting this for the past 30 years, ok 10 in the case of Mr Seba. Point is they have been bang on the money (no pun intended) all along. Based on what they forecast my expectation is that the fossil fuel industry and the internal combustion engine will become economically nonviable over the next 6 years. What we are seeing now Charlie is the beginning of this process. Note that it will affect all western economies. Tony Seba sees this as a "bright new dawn" for humanity but, think about it, how many jobs are dependant on these industries and, also the impact of AI technologies. I am apprehensive that we may be at the beginning of a 1929 type depression and for much the same reasons (think of the step change in technologies that happened 1900-1929).
I fear your instincts may be correct Charlie but may be much more significant and profound than just the UK housing market.
Having thoroughly depressed everyone I shall bid you all good night.
9:12 I thought fleecehold has nothing to do with leasehold or flats. This is a term for a freehold house located on an estate with third parties owning the estate. Worth asking for clarification on this issue on the conveyancer stream maybe?
I agree with you. We own the freehold of our block and self manage everything with a volunteer unpaid, experienced, residents management committee who all have a vested interest in maintaining services for the best price. There is no fleecing here, just graft to provide value for money and full accountability.
Fleecehold isn’t a real term. You’re right it was used to describe what you say, but I think it’s usage has crept into leaseholds as a criticism as well
Leaseholds are actually fleecing the owners especially flats with their extortionate service charges which do not seem to have to be justified by the company/housing associations managing the properties, there are lots of companies doing making a lot of money and doing extremely well from fleecing the leaseholders! Labour have said they will do something about it but I’m not holding my breath
Spencer, May I suggest you please read my earlier reply on this particular thread. It is easy to conflate all leasehold set-ups as bad. They are not. Thank you.
by looking at the house prices in asia like china, hong kong, korea, housing price drop for 35% is just the matter of time.
Vancouver, Auckland, Sydney ...too
And Germany too ... though I haven't looked closely at the numbers.
Evergrande and China might ripple out in the market exacerbating the CoL and inflation stuff too.
22:00 I think you have got that the wrong way round. As long as house prices keep increasing people feel rich and spend in other parts of the economy. Seeing the value of their house go down makes people feel poor and causes a recession.
I have first hand experience of that in the 1990s. I was never in negative equity but could sell at a 20% loss six years after I bought a house in 1989. I'm not sure about your timings either. things could stretch out longer. It took me ten years to get my money back on the house I bought in 1989.
when the pension system implodes alot of old timers may need to sell propertts and even middle ages will have to sell or down size too and theres many other factors when next financial collapse comes to make prices lower..
The pension system was geared towards sensible bond yields etc. The upside of falling house prices is that all the pensioner BTLers might have second thoughts about their "portfolios".
@@MrDuncl yes but as interest rates likely will reach much higher .. bonds purchased in recent decade or so will become worthless and pension funds will lose alot of value for most people and many other knock on effects
Energy costs falling, food prices lowering, fixed interest rates mortgages dropping and still a mass lack of property and migration rising substantially each year, I think this kind of thinking is very hopeful and more than unlikely then likely but there’s always hope
I guess.
Right now I feel you’re even more likely to be proved right than ever before
All guess work. Perhaps a small drop in houses £800k plus, up to £5/600k still selling ok in Cheshire.
I don’t think you’re going to see 50% falls …25% yes ……35% in. Some areas not all..
With cost of materials already gone up to build a house price to going up 10%/15% again in March & shortage or properties being built may be they won’t fall as much as expected but then the cost of living may force a collapse……but there is trouble brewing on the horizon…..
Car prices are another factor. New cars are up around 30% on average since 2019. This has resulted in used car prices being at riduculous prices due to lack of supply during the pandemic. New sales for Jan were down 15% YOY. Those who are remortgaging and need to buy a car could be in massive trouble.
Give it 12 months of coming recesion. People will max credit cards before default on mortgage. Remember 2008 😂
True but in 2008 it was a global thing and the global permission (of sorts) bailouts and ZIRP ('emergency interest rates' which last 15 years!) ... this time I wonder if there is scope for BoE to "go it alone" ...
Interested in your opinion on my situation: I have a 2 bedroom flat in a SE England commuter town - it's gorgeous, 28% shared ownership. I have just gone to market and have interest out the door, but I cannot sell yet due to nomination period ending next Monday -- semi-identical flat had 4 asking price offers in 1 week in August 2023 (their flat is uglier lol). Now, I am selling my shared ownership flat for exactly the same price in full market value terms as I am paying for a 2 bed Victorian freehold house in London zone 3. Not gorgeous, but solid - ex-BTL recently un-tenanted. Is the London market collapsing, or is shared ownership the only way most young people can start building any equity at all, so it's ridiculously popular?
shitttttt.....its nearly 2 bloody years I been watching you....wtf the time gone!?
Won’t happen in Cheltenham, average 4 bed on a private estate near me. Friends put on market at £725k and sold to a young (30s) couple for £710k within a few weeks. The bank of Mum and Dad is strong in these parts and will keep propping up the market. I’ve seen some reductions but properties don’t hang around too long and prices still unfeasibly high (but family money is the thing propping things up). There are a lot of people with deep pockets out there still.
Downsizing trend is also benefiting cheltenham / cotswolds a lot.
@@pilkers745 how do you mean? Influx of buyers from places like London and Oxford who see Cheltenham as good value and have pushed prices up during and since Covid (this is what I have heard)? Or something different? My example of my friends house on the face of it doesn’t make much sense. Let’s say that buying couple have an income of £150k combined, their purchase is still 5x their income, which suggests family money is helping a lot. In my road (less expensive as newish build but with social housing on the estate which keeps prices a bit more realistic), it still wouldn’t be easy for a young family to buy, as the bigger 4 beds go for up to £600k.
150 K combined ...these guys are not exactly working class heroes :😂 @@simonworsley8631
Influx of buyers from places like London and Oxford who see Cheltenham as good value and have pushed prices up.
Yes exactly.@@simonworsley8631
Evergrande.
Where is the mainstream media on this?
FT-paywalled stuff sometimes.
Otherwise complete radio silence (as with so many other things now and in the past).
Location x3...heading back to 2019 levels.No big deal.
Hi Charlie,
QUESTION ??????
Please can you make a video discussing whether or not the high number of ex-rental properties are having or going to have an effect on house prices?
I am seeing a large number of very poorly maintained properties from ex-rentals. They need such a lot of work doing to them and a lot are flooding the market. There are fewer owner occupied houses to choose from - I am talking about terraced in the North West and West Yorkshire.
However, I am seeing a small number of ex-rentals for sale which are renovated, but of those, recent roof works are showing poor workmanship with water ingress from roofs still not rectified despite agents saying owners will take another look. What I am getting at is that, on the surface, these houses 'appear' renovated but, in my opinion, it's surface stuff and there are cracks appearing structural rather than plaster work, painted over etc.
So, this large amount of ex-rentals, which are not renovated, mostly in a very poor state, showing extensive black mould and old windows etc, alongside the ones just tarted-up, .... are these properties going to pull down th prices if unsold in another 6 - 12 months?
I am asking this question in light of yout discussion on downsizers which are having an impact on lower value terraced properties.
I have to add, not all ex-rentals are in poor condition. The odd one or two I have viewed are in good condition, and in some cases landlords are trying to sell with their tenants in situ.
Start by saying that the economy is (virtually) in recession now and that is well communicated.
Indeed your message is clear though a note from a property investor and degree in Maths, I look at data and all indecies have elements of judgment though if you take trend of all shows direction and trend small drops overall - neither here nor there picking fault with certain indecies
Indeed house prices not going up, though at the moment your approximation and prediction of 35 per cent drop about 33 per cent off latest ONS figures (albeit 6 months off) and with the lack of any data to support other than anecdotes.
I understand you are saying buy but don't overpay, trouble is what with that prediction does not add up that if you believe this drop it only makes sense to rent rather than buy.
Only if you think base financial gain is more important than security of owning a home.
Bear in mind Charlie's 35 % drop is about house prices , not average house prices. With popular than ever downsizing, housing prices can fall much larger % than average house prices (more expensive large houses change hand than before).
Where is the evidence that downsizing is more popular than ever?
Just imagine you are sitting in your nice £750K home. We are told by Charlie that these houses (along with flats) are the most difficult to sell so will have the biggest price falls. So you think to yourself - lets sell up and buy somewhere smaller to release some cash. You then find out you can only get £650 for your place but the semis you have your eye on are keeping their value much better (again according to Charlie) . Oh and to move it is going to cost you around £50,000 in stamp duty, removal costs, estate agent fees and solicitor costs. And then there is the associated stress of moving. Why would you bother?! @@SilverWong-yo5iu
Do you have any actual data to back up "the great downsizing?" You state elsewhere that larger properties have seen some of the larger falls in price. So what you are saying is that large numbers of people are going to sell up at a time when their large house has fallen significantly in price, incurring huge costs (lets say circa £50,000) and buy somewhere smaller where prices are holding up really well. It does not pass the smell test.
Why do you (incorrectly) assume they’re “incurring losses”? If they’ve owned said large detached house for 5 years or more there will still be a healthy gain even after the falls of the last year or so.
I did not state that they are "incurring losses". I said they will be "incurring huge costs." Estate agent fees, removal costs, solicitor costs and of course the wonderful stamp duty. Could easily be £50,000
Add on the stress of moving then it seems very unlikely to me that larger numbers of people than usual are going to choose to downsize in this market.
I asked if you have any actual data. Do you? @@MovingHomewithCharlie
@@MovingHomewithCharlie. As usual the answer is no data to back up your assertion. So just more of the daily Charlie guff.
@@Leapops and yet here you still are! I repeatedly state that there's no data to back me up, that's the problem. (Also there's no data for the future, anywhere, obvs, and so we won't know until 2026 will we?)
In the absence of data it is usual to apply logic. I gave my logic above. All you did was misquote what I had written. What is your counter logic that explains why people are going to give themselves huge costs for the privilege of downsizing? @@MovingHomewithCharlie
Charlie don't take it personally you're stressing yourself too much. Take it easy.
When i look at areas that affect me, i think youre wrong about 35% - which means nothing because my sector of interest is primarily the cheapest 3 bed houses in cities. But when I look at the london market, particularly the help-to-buy clusterfk, I think you're right. But since you're talking about the UK, and im talking about south manchester, Liverpool and Coventry, we arent taoking avout the same thing. 😂
I think the NW will catch up with the rest of the country. Im already seeing reductions in south manchester stockport area.
@@andrewlam5021 there's a lot of high end in South Manchester. Low end is very limited and rents are high, so I don't think the 220k 3 beds will lose value. Stockport is another matter.
Hold on, we ain't reached 2025, we are yet to see the demographic time bomb for who is going to buy 3 bedroom detached houses over the next few years. Would the doubters about the 30/35٪ drop explain who the buyers of these properties are going to be. A whole tier by the numbers is getting harder. Birth rate per 1000. 1964, 14. 1974, 13.98. 1984, 12.99.
And 2023 was the most insolvencies since 2008/2009. I think he going to about right. FFS it could be worse.
Wait for health insurance and United Healthcare
You ll be proved right
How can you prop up and maintain the current housing prices with a declining economy? Either the house prices are maintained because the economy starts to rebound and thrive or house prices fall to reflect the failing economy you can’t have high prices with a tanking economy one has to shift. I agree with your expectations Charlie 100% I’m standing on that beach shouting tsunami too 😂😂😂
Unless you have a colossal bail out (as in 2008, though that was globally sanctioned!) or prices must fall.
Or 1970s style Stagflation. House prices went up. But not by as much as wages and those barely kept up with price increases in things like petrol.
In a previous vlog you stated the trough would be autumn 23 , " 8 reasons uk house prices will collapse autumn 22"
Yes I did. It has taken longer than I expected, but also we won't know what Autumn 23 prices were doing for another 3 months until the Land Registry publishes it's "March" completions reflecting autumn 2023 deals.
I bought a property in need of modernisation back at the start of October.
Was it a good price? Who knows. Can I afford it, yes. Is it better than renting, yes.
Do I want prices to fall, no. Its bad for everyone.
Do I think 35%? I hope not, 15% combined with stagnant prices would be better swallowed but, its dependant on too much to worry about.
It sounds like you made the right choice for yourself, and if you didn't overpay, you likely won't see price falls as big as others will.
@@MovingHomewithCharlie Time will tell. House prices only matter once you want or need to sell. Overpaying is still a vague term, I honestly think it that mostly relates to those stuck in bidding wars back at the peak of the market. I don't doubt I see a lot of crazy prices still but generally prices are still up
If you count total mortgage cost house prices are up 75% 😂.
I think you're not wrong yet.. my guess would be they're down 20% right now and who is to say they wont go that extra 15%.
Exactly, that’s why they are going to have to fall a lot
The falls to come will be steeper than the falls so far.
@@MovingHomewithCharliethe “falls to come” are a nonsense, you’ve been stringing people along this narrative for years all to give yourself a platform and some TH-cam revenue.
Let's say a house was fairly priced last year at 300k,it will have sold by now, 35% off is 100 grand off, never going to happen, fair priced stuff are still the same prices, yes vastly overpriced property will take a knock.
Why never going to happen? Why not?
@@MovingHomewithCharlie well, firstly your not going to see a fairly priced house worth, say 300k last year be 200k this year, or any time in the future, secondly most people will owe say, 80% of when they bought the property, they're absolutely unable to reduce it 35%, 3rd,people with loads of equity or fully owned property are unlikely to be pushed to need to reduce it, 4th rates aren't too bad now, seems the worst is over, 5th plenty of money around, not like in the 90s when I started buying properties, 6th I saw something the other day about 99%mortgages, I don't know anything about them, but it'll actually put up prices. I've been buying, renting, flipping properties since early 90s, so I do have some idea. Having said that I nearly got wiped out in 2008 credit crunch days, I was totally exposed on property and couldn't sell, I actually had one sell (forced) for 50%less, problem in those days wasn't rates, just that no one would lend and that happened overnight, leaman bros and all that, I've worked thru it now but it ruined a good few years.
I started to notice a lot of random acts of anger around London over the last 6 months, has anyone else noticed that? I noticed it when I first moved to London in 2009 as well.
Overpopulated and dropping living standards.
People pushed to their max overworked with no relief probably.
Also more angry motorists on the roads.
Peak Prosperity did a video a while back about an experiment where rats in a cage are given electric shocks and then they start attacking other rats. People are being shocked at the moment by rising rents, mortgages, utilities, groceries etc. They're getting angry and taking it out on random people on the street.
Yes, I’ve noticed it in small towns, big cities, suburbs. It’s why I will be getting a couple of German Shepherds soon and need to move to a bigger place. After experiencing the housing market for the first time in 20 years, I realised how few people have a moral compass. I’m grateful for my mild Catholic upbringing with a mother who was gentle and kind and guided me to always try to be good.
@@EastoftheDanube Diversity plays a key part.
When you mix multiple conflicting cultures you get an uptick in crime and disharmony.
If you want safety and community spirit choose areas that lack diversity.
£150k off every property will give you right value according to interest rates and real home wages .
Would also put hundreds of thousands into poverty.
mental you think some houses will drop 50%
Not sure happening and mortgage rates dropping . Shame wish they had crashed by now
You wished house prices would crash? Which would’ve put the country into financial ruin and probably had people in genuinely crippling debt? How sad.
Lots of “when the financial market collapses” and “When the Pension System implodes” in these comments, go on then lads, when are these hypothetical scenarios going to happen?
Also, I’ll never understand this bitterness from you doom mongerers around sellers pricing their properties too high. They own the house, they choose the price. If they aren’t forced to sell, which is 95% of the selling market, they won’t.
Charlie will be right if given enough time
It’s transitory
Do you think house builders are going to give up / go bust over next 5 years?
Some and some.
Can’t understand why Charlie always works on nominal prices not inflation factored actual prices. Actual prices gives a much greater measure of true value.
They do, I agree. But the majority of people don’t think in inflation adjusted terms.
@@MovingHomewithCharlie I don't get the nominal v actual. If you can explain again that would be great. I only think in real.
I don't get real prices as everyone's wage increases at different rates, so taking a price index and adjusting house prices for it doesnt make sense for most, except for economists and others with an interest in the general (macro) movement of a market
Good advice
You’d have to be mad to get a new mortgage right now
When you take inflation into account I don't think you're out of the park with your forecast,
I'm being thick, what do you mean?
@@sjt627 I mean when inflation is a couple of percent a year the effect on stagnant house prices is small but when inflation is high say anywhere between 10 and 15 percent, house prices are falling behind at an accelerated rate and becoming more affordable in real terms
His forecast is 35% nominal falls. High inflation makes this highly unlikely.@@bobpearson896
I honestly think the 35% is a bit too strong. It infers some properties will drop as high as 50% which I just don't see.
However this is just like Labour and their £28bn pledge. Your detractors are just waiting for you to reduce it so that they can use it as an angle of attack.
To quote you: I would just tell them to rearrange the following two words into a well know phrase "off, fuck".
I'm in a county outside of London, so commuter belt land. Houses especially 2 beds, are selling in the last couple of weeks at the fastest pace I've seen since when we came out of lockdown and stamp duty was cut. Like a buying frenzy. Obvs not privy to sold prices, but suspect they are holding out and getting the inflated prices as they are rejecting lower offers (as I know!) then selling. Going to market asking prices are stable here...and high. I can hear you but can't unfortunately see it round here where I need to buy. Suspect people are cash rich around here, horrifically.
Same - I'm in a Herts county with excellent transport links into London (Overground, underground station and mainline - all 18-30 minutes into central zone 1). 2 beds are absolutely flying out. Especially buying schemes like shared ownership, sold before they're finished. All the priced-out-of-London young people are desperately buying up the housing stock here in a certain type of home. Multimillion pound houses sit for months. I can't see a drop in prices around here, at all.
I wonder if there's a few factors going on. People are desperate to get out of the very corrupt, expensive rental market and they are trusting the media and mortgage companies with their 'house prices are rising' rhetoric....... Look what happened after COVID! We live in a country full of sheep, unfortunately 😞
@@impamiizgraa Inflation hike allegedly coming tomorrow, 14 Feb, hopefully will dampen the enthusiasm!
I asked an FOI question to ONS as to why they compare one month in the current year to the same month in the previous year. e.g. July 22 to Jul 21. They replied it is a well known statistical practice to compare different months in statistics. I agree 100%. However you can not compare July 22 to July 21 as they would cover all transactions from 1st July 2021 to 31st July 2022. They are full months and that is 13 months. If you compared it to Aug 2021 to July 2022 that is a year. July 2022 they reported a yearly rise of 15.5% and the true rise was 8.4%. Do the sums.
Not wrong yet, think overshoot above 50%
I've lost and gained and gained divorced and divorced because because because of and now work for myself and life is realy good.New partner and a wealthy one it's a learning process but big thing is this. MOST OF U ARE ASSES AND MATERIALISTIC AND HOUSES ARE NOT THE WAY TO MAKE MONEY U ARE CONDITIONED BY THE CRAPPY SYSTEM THAT RUNS U LIVES.Think small cos the little things make big big things and please educated u kids the rite way.Going down soon housing market its a plan its not going to get better well not in the way u all want.U baby boomers.
You ok hun?
Thete are no 35% falls , not even 10%, prices are sky high and selling
Hi Dar. I mean “high Dar” 😉 you’ve never told us where this fantasy place is with ever-rising prices even in a mortgage cost crunch. Sounds wonderful.
@@MovingHomewithCharlie Charlie Charlie , your on cuckoo land, all your predictions about 35% drop in house prices failed miserably. I feel sorry for your sheep listening to your jackanory stories. You waffle on each and every day that you have 25 years experience in the property Industry and you know the market. Well don't ever get the urge to gamble because you will go bankrupt. Listened to you and your fellow rep stig for a few months now, blowing cold smoke from your ears predicting the market. You couldn't predict a wet paper bag falling in front of you. You had your whole channel thinking prices were falling , then you back track and say no no I didnt say that, I meant I 2025. When 2025 comes you will back track again. Its all about money for you . Why do you charge for telephone consultation if your out to help the people. Your are fleecing your audience's pockets, giving them false hope about the market and what you would do in this market. Your the dreamer, and high at the same time. You can't accept when you habe been proven wrong. Now carry on with your doom and gloom market predictions which will come back to haunt you 😉 tapa tapa.
@@MovingHomewithCharlieYou talk a load of bull 🐂 . Feel sorry for all the people who listen to you and use your services . Complete shambles of a channel.
To be fair Charlie's 35% prediction is in nominal terms. Since the peak in June 2022 we've had 15% inflation and an 8% house price fall. So 23%.
It should bottom out at 20% and 12% so 32%.
Um no! He said 35% nominal which is well over 50% real. I am not sure he actually understands inflation and its impact on house prices.
Nominal! Real will be worse...!
@@MovingHomewithCharlie Yes. My mistake. Corrected. But why people think you predicted a 35% fall in headline price is beyond me.
Inflation still above 4.3% Wages growing 6%. No more base rate reduction til at least the August meeting.
Anechdotes and ignoring all data as it shows that it was not what he wanted and denying indices are accurate when they don't say what he wants. Credibility is hurting rather than just saying he made a prediction, and that any prediction can be wrong as with predicting who will win the world cup! A bit of honesty was amiss in this video or maybe he is deluded. In no area has prices fallen by 50% as he predicted and is obviously false if just look at asking prices being around the same or only slightly down and valuations by valuers only being slightly down. He made a prediction and got it wrong so what? but to dodge and pretend like he is seems childish and dishonest (or deluded). Personally I predict rises soon when interest rates drop but maybe that prediction will be off.
You’re one of the numpties who hasn’t listened to the 2025 part of my expectations and not realised that it’s not 2025 yet. Of course nowhere has fallen 50% YET. You great noodle. 🤦🏻♂️
I have been following you a few years now @movinghomewitcharlie and after watching the Russel Quirke video. I now believe there are two sides to the coin. Here is my honest opinion. I’m losing faith in what you have been saying Charlie. You do seem to be moving the date of the housing price decline each year. At this moment, there aren’t any massive price reductions here in the NW of the UK, I believe it’s the opposite. You may have lost a subscriber here and I was watching your show live when you celebrated the milestone of subscribers with the bottle of champagne. Sorry Charlie 😢
Bye 👋
The good news is that as of February 2024, house prices have risen for four months in a row and will continue to rise when interest rates come down. People who can't afford a decent house will always try to talk the market down.