I bought my first house in 1989. There were no house price indexes or charts. The only information was property for sale adverts in the local newspaper. There were stories on TV about negative equity from the 1987 peak. To get a mortgage I think I just walked into a branch of a building society. I think it took about 5 weeks to move in from making the offer. Crikey, they were simpler times.
Halifax price index started in 1983. I know this because I shorted the index in 1989. Life was certainly simpler but also very unpleasant for the thousands plunged into negative equity who had also lost their job.
if only the BBC and respected newspapers etc. actually analysed press releases. Same to be said for meant other subjects that aren't subject to prosecution.
I would advise any young person do not put the hard earnt ££ into any property do not get caught up in all the BS!! live a life invest in Gold Silver do anything you can to get out of the hamster wheel, rat race, better choices for quality than quantity.
But what if part of living life means having a secure place that's yours which you can transform into an environment which suits you? What if you want to start a family? Renting means you ultimately feel transient in the place you live even if you've been there for years! At least the bank & lender will be happy to let you stay indefinitely so long as you make your payments, and you don't need to ask their permission to so much as change some cabinet doors or hang up a few pictures.
A lesson on borrowing; inflation and how it erodes debt: It makes sense to borrow money now spend all of it on assests, buy hard 'things' - because by the time lenders want their money back, it's going to be worth alot less than it is today. Let's say I borrow half a million today and buy half a million pounds worth of assests. I now owe half a million. In 25 years that half a million pounds worth of assets is now worth 3 million, 4 million because inflation increases the prices of assests. That is exactly what it does. That's the whole point of it. That's why the rich get richer and the poor stay poor. "Don't wait to buy. Buy now and wait."
Invest in frankincense and Myrrh. Gold is too obvious. Don't invest in property, just buy at the right time and at the rightprice. If only sound advice and research was available.....
You include Rightmove asking price index data in 5FF regularly. That "fact in isolation" tells you very little about what is happening to sold house prices. So your argument that 800,000 net migration is not relevant for 5FF because you do not know how many of them have cash is total nonsense. It tells you far more than the Rightmove asking price index that you repeat every month for a start. I am not interested in the illegals in this number - they are a side show. Most of the 800,000 net are coming legally with visas. That means they are either wealthy students (because they have to pay way more than the £9000 UK students pay) or coming with jobs that pay well (as that is the only way you get a visa now) High immigration impacts housing by definition. These impacts are magnified because 1) Successive Governments have failed to build enough houses. 2) They make the dysfunctional rental market even more nuts. This pushes some current renters into buying so they can escape the rental market. 3) Some migrants will buy as they can afford to and want to make UK their home on a more permanent basis. 4) Immigration is expected to be in the 100s of thousands for the foreseeable future.
But it's not NEW INFORMATION! We know about it. And there is no data to show a correlation, so it's not a verifiable fact that it affects it. In the rental market, absolutely it does, but not the sales market.
@@MovingHomewithCharlie There was a revision to last year data that was a 200,000 increase. to over 900,000 I would argue that is new information. However, even if not, there was BRAND NEW INFORMATION of over 800,000 net migration in the last 12 months. How you can argue that is not NEW INFORMATION is beyond me. Just admit you missed it. As for correlation, there is no data to suggest a correlation between right move asking price and SOLD house prices either but you include that every month! And if you think that immigration at these levels and the forecast that they will continue in the 100s of thousands for the foreseeable future coupled with the Governments (labour and tory) failure to enable building to accommodate the increase has no impact on sales market then I have a bridge to sell you!
I've only followed on and off. When i was watching you regularly (maybe a year ago) you were regularly saying the market would go down by 20% or more nominal prices. Did you abandon that prediction?
It wasn’t a prediction but an expectation and it remains in place. See the article in the telegraph today showing that ONS figures are overstated and the housing market is on the brink.
@MovingHomewithCharlie Thanks for the reply. I'm not sure I understand the semantic difference but happy to call it an expectation. Interesting that you're sticking to it. I honestly hope you're right, but after all the inflation we've had I don't see it. Time will tell. Thanks again for clarifying!
On Heart radio, they were claiming that there is an influx of buyers and that house prices are going to drasticly increase lol It's as if thease people never interact with the general population
“Buying a house is a bad investment” Inflation is devaluing house prices, So inflation must also be devaluing the debt you owe to the bank ?. And also devaluing any cash in savings. What would be the best thing to do with cash currently ?
Yes inflation devalues debt, but given that the debt is usually less than the value of the house, it's not enough to offset what inflation does to that. With cash you don't want to actively manage, you could spread it around and diversify, and hold those positions long term.
Also, when buying a residential property, the buyer only puts a 10% deposit down, and the bank lends the other 90%. Meaning that most of the money used is the banks anyway. Properties, on average, double every 10 years, so NOW is always the best time to buy. Trying to 'time' the market is not smart. There's a saying in property: "Time in the market, beats timing the market."
I think those updated immigration figures have already fed into rental prices at least where I am in the midlands. Rents up 10.3% on average in the city I am in according to ONS data. This is likely coupled with landlords leaving the market.
That is my point. An already dysfunctional rental market is going to get much worse. 800,000 in the most recent period and forecast to be 100s of thousands for the foreseeable future. If you think that has no impact on house prices (especially given the failure to build new houses) then I have a bridge to sell you!
A one off is fair if based on mortgage increases. Worth asking if it went up next year, Why it's gone up again. Ask politely. Prior to this year, in 19 years I kept rents the same unless a new tenant. I have mostly had great tenants because I always reference and self managed 50:50 approx. Unfortunately you can't do much about it but at least find out what the attitude is. You could also ask, when you next get a pay rise and before the next rent increase is due what the intention is on renewal. You could also as a separate question ask what they want for the property. Should be 10 to 15% of market value. I have sold to 3 of my tenant at an advantageous price. One tried to market for 50% more after 6 months and after a further 4 months tried to rent at double the rent I was charging. You can't be evicted for polite questions. Good luck.
Spot on about Halifax. If it has improved why is the market dead? Someone hasn't thought that through.
I bought my first house in 1989. There were no house price indexes or charts. The only information was property for sale adverts in the local newspaper. There were stories on TV about negative equity from the 1987 peak. To get a mortgage I think I just walked into a branch of a building society. I think it took about 5 weeks to move in from making the offer. Crikey, they were simpler times.
Halifax price index started in 1983. I know this because I shorted the index in 1989. Life was certainly simpler but also very unpleasant for the thousands plunged into negative equity who had also lost their job.
Yep and that was before emails! Everything was done by post and still they managed it in under 8 weeks! Does make you wonder what the fluff happened!
if only the BBC and respected newspapers etc. actually analysed press releases. Same to be said for meant other subjects that aren't subject to prosecution.
"many" auto corrected.
Northern ireland is an absolute joke at the moment... the prices are just stupid
I was thinking of moving to Northern Ireland from Sheffield. Can you elaborate a bit?
My wages have gone up, but the reality is that every thing has gone up so much I feel my money doesn't go as far as it used to.
Exactly.
@@MovingHomewithCharlie its called inflation caused by gov. & central banks
Health and safety. Guff should not be gaslit.
How many completions involve landlords selling up, 20%? Also FTB rush ahead of stamp duty changes?
I would advise any young person do not put the hard earnt ££ into any property do not get caught up in all the BS!! live a life invest in Gold Silver do anything you can to get out of the hamster wheel, rat race, better choices for quality than quantity.
But what if part of living life means having a secure place that's yours which you can transform into an environment which suits you? What if you want to start a family? Renting means you ultimately feel transient in the place you live even if you've been there for years! At least the bank & lender will be happy to let you stay indefinitely so long as you make your payments, and you don't need to ask their permission to so much as change some cabinet doors or hang up a few pictures.
A lesson on borrowing; inflation and how it erodes debt:
It makes sense to borrow money now spend all of it on assests, buy hard 'things' - because by the time lenders want their money back, it's going to be worth alot less than it is today. Let's say I borrow half a million today and buy half a million pounds worth of assests. I now owe half a million. In 25 years that half a million pounds worth of assets is now worth 3 million, 4 million because inflation increases the prices of assests. That is exactly what it does. That's the whole point of it. That's why the rich get richer and the poor stay poor.
"Don't wait to buy. Buy now and wait."
Invest in frankincense and Myrrh. Gold is too obvious. Don't invest in property, just buy at the right time and at the rightprice. If only sound advice and research was available.....
I love that film to specially when he dries his face with John Candys big under pants.
One of my all time favourite films!
You include Rightmove asking price index data in 5FF regularly. That "fact in isolation" tells you very little about what is happening to sold house prices.
So your argument that 800,000 net migration is not relevant for 5FF because you do not know how many of them have cash is total nonsense. It tells you far more than the Rightmove asking price index that you repeat every month for a start.
I am not interested in the illegals in this number - they are a side show. Most of the 800,000 net are coming legally with visas. That means they are either wealthy students (because they have to pay way more than the £9000 UK students pay) or coming with jobs that pay well (as that is the only way you get a visa now)
High immigration impacts housing by definition. These impacts are magnified because
1) Successive Governments have failed to build enough houses.
2) They make the dysfunctional rental market even more nuts. This pushes some current renters into buying so they can escape the rental market.
3) Some migrants will buy as they can afford to and want to make UK their home on a more permanent basis.
4) Immigration is expected to be in the 100s of thousands for the foreseeable future.
It’s the only fact that is relevant. And the only reason why a 30-35% drop in nominal house prices is impossible. 🙅
But it's not NEW INFORMATION! We know about it. And there is no data to show a correlation, so it's not a verifiable fact that it affects it. In the rental market, absolutely it does, but not the sales market.
@@MovingHomewithCharlie There was a revision to last year data that was a 200,000 increase. to over 900,000 I would argue that is new information. However, even if not, there was BRAND NEW INFORMATION of over 800,000 net migration in the last 12 months. How you can argue that is not NEW INFORMATION is beyond me. Just admit you missed it.
As for correlation, there is no data to suggest a correlation between right move asking price and SOLD house prices either but you include that every month!
And if you think that immigration at these levels and the forecast that they will continue in the 100s of thousands for the foreseeable future coupled with the Governments (labour and tory) failure to enable building to accommodate the increase has no impact on sales market then I have a bridge to sell you!
I've only followed on and off. When i was watching you regularly (maybe a year ago) you were regularly saying the market would go down by 20% or more nominal prices. Did you abandon that prediction?
It wasn’t a prediction but an expectation and it remains in place. See the article in the telegraph today showing that ONS figures are overstated and the housing market is on the brink.
@MovingHomewithCharlie Thanks for the reply. I'm not sure I understand the semantic difference but happy to call it an expectation. Interesting that you're sticking to it. I honestly hope you're right, but after all the inflation we've had I don't see it. Time will tell. Thanks again for clarifying!
Transaction jump prob prior stamp duty changes ?
Quite possibly but already too late given time to complete.
Cash buyers still able to do I'm told (and hoping)
Fix Housing. Fix Everything.
Fix the government, fix everything
On Heart radio, they were claiming that there is an influx of buyers and that house prices are going to drasticly increase lol
It's as if thease people never interact with the general population
Like O"Brien on LBC.
80/90s music intro
noice
“Buying a house is a bad investment”
Inflation is devaluing house prices,
So inflation must also be devaluing the debt you owe to the bank ?.
And also devaluing any cash in savings.
What would be the best thing to do with cash currently ?
Yes inflation devalues debt, but given that the debt is usually less than the value of the house, it's not enough to offset what inflation does to that. With cash you don't want to actively manage, you could spread it around and diversify, and hold those positions long term.
Also, when buying a residential property, the buyer only puts a 10% deposit down, and the bank lends the other 90%. Meaning that most of the money used is the banks anyway. Properties, on average, double every 10 years, so NOW is always the best time to buy. Trying to 'time' the market is not smart. There's a saying in property: "Time in the market, beats timing the market."
I think those updated immigration figures have already fed into rental prices at least where I am in the midlands.
Rents up 10.3% on average in the city I am in according to ONS data. This is likely coupled with landlords leaving the market.
That is my point. An already dysfunctional rental market is going to get much worse. 800,000 in the most recent period and forecast to be 100s of thousands for the foreseeable future. If you think that has no impact on house prices (especially given the failure to build new houses) then I have a bridge to sell you!
A one off is fair if based on mortgage increases. Worth asking if it went up next year, Why it's gone up again. Ask politely. Prior to this year, in 19 years I kept rents the same unless a new tenant. I have mostly had great tenants because I always reference and self managed 50:50 approx. Unfortunately you can't do much about it but at least find out what the attitude is. You could also ask, when you next get a pay rise and before the next rent increase is due what the intention is on renewal. You could also as a separate question ask what they want for the property. Should be 10 to 15% of market value. I have sold to 3 of my tenant at an advantageous price. One tried to market for 50% more after 6 months and after a further 4 months tried to rent at double the rent I was charging.
You can't be evicted for polite questions.
Good luck.