As far as I read from local media, the plane crashed right next to a house, 12 people were evacuated from the house. The house was barely touched by the debris. My condolences to all involved. I wish quick recovery for the injured ones.
@@most-average-athelete I hear 2700' pretty clear but still that's no factor for the crash. There are no obstacles that affect to establish the glideslope at 2500' or even 2300' as others have mentioned. You descend below the glidepath, yes, but that's ot likely the cause of the crash. 2300' is altitude check on 5 miles. They crashed 1 mile short.
Incredible that anybody survived at all given the size of the fireball. My thoughts go out to the deceased person's family, and I hope for a speedy recovery of the three injured participants. Exellent work, Victor! Thank you!
According to local news, crew cabin during the crash, got separated from the burning fuselage. Person who was not in the cockpit has relatively minor injuries, however cockpit crew was not as lucky, with 1 dead, 1 unconscious whole time and 1 who was initially conscious but ... Not at the moment.
probably 2 factors that helped, 1 they're a cargo flight. So whole crew in the front(4 ppl if the info is correct), nobody in the back. So the after part can take most of the impact, 2nd, they configured for landing( with gear out/flaps) and had a low approach speed, so the impact will be less. But yeah, fly blue sky.
Wow. This was a quick grab and upload. Thanks for this information, Victor. My sincerest condolences to the family of the deceased, and well wishes for swift recovery to those injured in this incident.
I was checking in at Vilnius airport when this crashed and didn't hear anything, I was very surprised to only hear about it once I'd landed in Luton. Our flight was delayed but the pilot just said due to an incident with the fire brigade.😳 crazy times. R.I.P to the pilot.
I guess with the crash happening outside the airport boundary, the only direct impact on the airport is that they don't have their fire engines because they have left the airport to respond to the crash. They can't operate without fire engines. So technically your pilot was accurate - it was the absence of the fire brigade rather than the crash itself that delayed you.
I'm sorry to hear that, and thanksfor the quick upload. My condolences to the victim's family. I hope the others make a full recovery, and the cause of the accident is found quickly.
Should be noted that approach gave the wrong ATC frequency (Vilnius tower is 118.205, the given frequency was 118.5 and the read back was 118.05). That's possibly a distraction factor and that's most likely why after the transfer we didn't hear from postman again. That's also why both frequencies gave a landing clearance, in hopes that postman was on one of them
Nice point. After watching again I realize that Approach indeed says ONE ONE EIGHT TWO ZERO FIVE. Quite fast, difficult to hear. Then for Postman I clearly hear ONE ONE EIGHT ZERO FIVE. Definitely read back the wrong frequency. Shouldn't be much of a factor since frequencies are listed in charts. You call a couple times without reply, either you come back to previous frequency for confirmation or you switch to the correct frequency yourself.
@@VASAviation the issue with that is it might not be a factor at 10 miles or more, but you don't have much time at 4 miles, could be quite a distracting factor taking into account they were overspeeding (judging by the localiser overshoot which only happens when people don't follow speed restrictions) and also considering they were in full IFR weather up until 800-900 FT. You won't be looking at charts for the frequencies at this stage of flight
It was so lucky that there wasn't more deaths from people inside their homes, my thoughts are with the family of the deceased. Lets hope this isn't anything narfarious.
Flown into Vilnius countless times. The approach is a straightforward one. The behavior of the plane looks like it dropped suddenly the last few hundred feet- be that wind sheer, control input error or mechanical, its a sad day for those involed.
Pure speculation but more likely autopilot/autothrottle related failure or misuse/misunderstanding by the pilots, could be similar to the AMS crash - ILS capture without autothrottle (for various reasons), attempting to capture the glide from above with incorrect modes etc. Source - pilot with over 10,000hrs on Boeings
@@g1344304 Like you said pure speculation but from the CCTV footage the aircraft appears to be on a fairly stable glide, looks right for a 3 degrees glide and the V/S increases rapidly a few feet from the ground. Could be something with the A/T like you said with the AMS crash but I don't think it was related to capturing the glide from above as it looks stable for a few seconds there.
At 2:16 She said "...contact Tower 118.205." Readback was "118.05, Postman 18Delta" No comms after that. It's at least second incorrect readback. At 1:38 He said "Postman 18Zero, eh, 18Delta". Could this somehow contribute to the accident? Was the pilot too tired?
Not to discourage speculation, as I do enjoy it but we don't have nearly enough information without the black box. Loose cargo, wind shear, mechanical fault, software fault, icing, radar fault, etc etc etc. First observation shows a large deviation followed by immediate attempted correction in the critical stage before landing. My speculation is we can't rule out most causes at this stage. Even the door falling off, it is a boeing. Even something like a bird strike through the cockpit could kill or incapacitate the cockpit crew, medical incident, and so much more. My point is, if you guys can rule out possible explanations or reason them less likely it'd be more impressive.
There were bombs detonating at DHL in Germany in the last time, this may have been a sabotage, given the proximity to the current war, it may have been an issue too. A German spokeperson for the secret services should give a press conference soon today...
Based on the given data, pilots were flying IRKAL 2B arrival with ILS Z RWY 19 approach. MIZOP point minimums are 5000 feet and max 230 kt. After that, take the right turn heading 104 to VI412 (to intercept the ILS beacon), which you need to intercept at 3000 feet (max 210 kt). Next, fly the runway heading at 194 to D6.2 at 2700 feet, which is 6.2 miles from the runway threshold. This is the point where G/S must be alive, and the 3-degree descent must be maintained. It must have a stabilized approach (the aeroplane must be fully prepared for landing). From 3:04 to 3:07, you can observe a good 3-degree descent. However, at 3:08, you might notice the "dive" manoeuvre. I'm not sure about the pilot flying, but at least the pilot monitoring felt distracted. Lithuanian authorities have little to no experience in air crash investigations. As it was a US plane, NTSB will provide all the help needed. I would bet on a pilot error or technical failure as two major factors, with minor mistakes from ATC.
That´s a disturbing start into the new week.😯 Thank you very much for publishing the relevant radio communication so quickly. My condolences to the family and friends of the deceased pilot.
I am very curious to see the preliminary report on this. Reaching a conclusion a few a hours after an accident like this based only on a video and the final radio transmissions, is far fetched. Thank you very much for the upload and your hard work.
A person that lives in Grigiškės says that the plane was rattling when flying above the city, hope they interview ground witnesses and get as much info as possible.
I listened back twice and clearly heard "two thousand, three hundred feet". I also see a few comments where the CG may have shifted, but I think that the pilot may have realized they were going down and tried to avoid some houses or larger buildings perhaps? CG is definitely a real possibility, but he could have also been trying to mitigate ground casualties.
Judging by the flight data just before the crash, they appear to have been on a wildly unstabilized approach, likely coming in both too fast and too high. Descent rates of over 2,000 fpm at 3,700 ft, and over 1,100 fpm at 1,000 ft. At one point they began to climb before rapidly sinking again. Very unfortunate event, I'm curious to see what the cause turns out to be.
Anyone else getting stall vibes from that rate of descent? I'm seeing the comments about missing the glideslope, but surely they would realise that degree of drop.
Condolences to the crewmember's family and all on the ground who lost their homes. Awful. I wonder if the incorrect QNH readback is the root cause... Damn. Not a good start to the week. Thanks for all your hard work Vas.
No it isnt. They were flying an ILS which means the glidepath is independent of altimiter setting. And even if it would have been an approach without vertical guidance then 1hpa difference is 27ft. At 1 mile from rwy they should have been at aroud 300ft.
3:05 You can see the angle of landing lights suddenly changes and go down about 4 seconds later, like the descending flightpath changed abruptly to steeper. Many possibilities: sudden loss of elevator control, unintended deactivation of ILS approach on autopilot, intended deactivation for manual final and trim settings wrong, sudden stalling due to deactivated speed/ thrust control, flaps not extended enough...
Did they really read back 2700 feat? It's not clearly understandable. I hear twothousandtwelvehundred what makes no sense. Perhaps they understood 2200 and were way below the glidepath while flying manually.
Airplane was very slow, very low, quite safe and airport and emergency services were nearby. And probably everybody was sitting at the front so didnt get into the "mincer".
Pure speculation but most likely autopilot/autothrottle related failure or misuse/misunderstanding by the pilots, could be similar to the AMS crash - ILS capture without proper autothrottle (for various reasons), attempting to capture the glide from above with incorrect modes etc. My personal opinion with over 10,000hrs on Boeings
The aircraft seems stable in the video up until it suddenly plummets from the sky. Based on the lights remaining pretty much in the same position the whole time this looks like a loss of airspeed close to the ground and likely not caused by weather or anything like that. Very sad for all involved.
The landing lights seem too high in my opinion, like they either didn’t have flaps out and were too slow, or did have flaps out - but were also too slow. Sounds like an unstable approach and they were behind the plane (asking for ILS clearance repeatedly so close to the ground.)
Yeah, angle of the landing lights seem to indicate a big nose-up attitude until stall and then the nose was dropped to recover from the stall, I don't remember if there is a stick pusher in the 737
@@EstorilEm So close to the ground? They were asking for approach clearance confirmation well before mizop which is ~16NM before runway and minimum 5000ft .
A lot of speculation going on here… 737 only has a stick shaker. Stall recovery is like in every other conventional plane: nose down, wings level, thrust increase smoothly, flight path recover smoothly
While the incorrect altitude read-back may not be a factor as far as terrain obstacles, it does potentially point to an overall problem of fatigue, task saturation, other factors, etc. Also approach giving the incorrect ATC frequency just adds to the swiss cheese model. RIP to the pilot and healing energy to the survivors, friends, and families affected by this horrible event.
I hear the pilot reading back the correct altitude. However he got wrong the QNH first, then his own callsign, then the frequency (although bad spoken by ATC)... Cargo pilots are more prone to fatigue. That's a fact.
@@VASAviation Indeed. The video of the plane appearing to be stable on final, then suddenly *not* stable is interesting. Not familiar with whatever Lithuanian investigative branch that handles plane crashes but hope to see a thorough report in the future.
At 1:32 the pilot was given 2700 but sounds like the read back was 2300 and the pilot asks tower to confirm. However, the tower’s reply was stepped on. Not sure if that 400 foot difference would cause a crash, but it seems there was definitely some confusion about the ILS.
The acft was a bit high on the approach, what happened on short final, the rate of descent did not seem harsh (on the video) how they crashed in front the rwy. Interesting what happened in the cockpit on the last 2 miles before the crash
The approach attitude of the aircraft seemed to on a stable 3 or maybe 3.5 degree angle as it descended …Also,……. .It looks as if the aircraft is being completely controlled all the way to impact. It also appears that the weather / landing visibility would allow the pilots to see the runway / airport environment ……. I’m only guessing here, but unless there was some sort of freak two-engine failure on short final (or) an auto flight mode /. Panel malfunction, (or) sudden flight control failure… the pilots should have been in a position to perform a go around….. If the ILS was being flown,.. obviously they would have below glideslope indications at or below the DA that far from the runway…..AND if no runway lHIRLS insight… shouldn’t be going below 100’ …….a Go-around would be performed… 🤔🤔🤔🤔
@@jonasbaine3538last 10 seconds the hat to pitch down, soomething happened, dont think it was pilots fault. Another video was released where u can see that in the last moment the pitch full up trying to survive. terrifing. RIP for the spanish pilot and wishing a speed and good recover to the crew.
They were on an ILS .. even if their QNH was wrong .. and ILS doesn’t suffer from “QNH blunder error “ so if followed correctly it would guide them all the way to the runway safely. Had they been on an Rnav ( non precision ) in that case yes .. QNH could have played a factor .. however .. it seems apparent they were visual With the runway .. so even if their QNH was incorrect .. they could have clearly corrected visually .. so overall I do t think QNH was a factor.
@@davidmichael5573I think they stalled it based on behind behind the plane in audio and the angle of the landing lights. CFIT is hard to do when you can see the obstacles and you’re obviously going to be looking since you’re in landing phase.
So it was dark, clouds at 500 or 700 feet. No indications of engine problems or any other reported malfunction. It looks like they were able to see the runway, judging on the footage at the end of this video, and visibility was according to the Metar 10.000 meters. Wind was 17 knots, direction 180 degrees, which is nearly runway heading. What went wrong on final?
Don't want to get ahead of the investigation but cargo pilots are sometimes the ones rejected by the airlines. Like in the Prime air crash on approach in Houston TX some time ago....
I hear him say 'two thousand three hundred feet'. That startled me on the first listen, and that is all I hear when I repeat, with good headphones (and old ears!) 1:30 is the timestamp.
Looks like he was aiming for the wrong aimpoint short of RWY. The descend rate looked nice or maybe a bit steep but not crazy from the video. Do we know if its any windsheer in the place?
What I noticed from the radar ads-b is that they seem to overshoot the localizer, but that happens more often, has not to be in any connection to the crash. From the video images it looks like a stable descend. Not a sudden loss of control. Maybe a cfit (controlled flight into terrain) caused by the low clouds, overcast at 700 ft? But that is a speculation...
I'm looking at the METAR data provided and am wondering if icing may be at play. Not necessarily airframe/engine icing, but windshield icing causing PIC to misidentify the runway. 01/M01 is pretty saturated along with a low ceiling at night.
Hm so no longer fire in the cargo bay as expected by many (maybe you heard about a package burning in a parcel hub some weeks ago, suspected to be a sabotage activity also aiming at air transport between Germany and the Baltics)
the video shows a dive near the end so loose cargo or stall maybe? Even its a stall for it to nosedive seems more like runaway trim or some flight control related issue. You guys think stall?
That’s sad, but a miracle that anyone survived. As far as speculation, I don’t know… sounds like they were behind the plane for the entire approach and likely confused, hence asking for ILS multiple times. I don’t think the plane “was fine, then dropped out of the sky all of a sudden like wind shear” as some are saying - if you look at the angle of the landing lights, it seems like a VERY high AoA to me - like they either weren’t configured correctly but continued to slow, or perhaps were configured but just didn’t monitor their speed.
Not wanting to seem cold, but theres no need to inconvenience everyone else because of this crash. The runway is clear, departures could all leave, and arrivals use the opposite direction landing.
So sad to hear of this tragic event with the loss of life and I’m sure life changing injuries. Thoughts go out to all involved. Maybe I’m hearing things but I’m sure he read back 2500 ft. 1:30. Not knowing the area. Does anyone know if it’s a high wind shear area?
These events are luckily so rare within the EU that they somehow hit different (no pun intended). Hope those who are injured are making a speedy recovery.
Clearly something wrong happened with intercepting that localizer. V/S at -1200 ft when in the glide, no readback from the pilots, they should have done a missed approach if it was even possible
Cupple of things i noticed: They ask if they are cleared for the ILS after MIZOP -> tower does not answer to that; tower then cleares them for ILS, normally i would expect a „turn heading XXX cleared ILS 19“ but that did not occur. Then they overshot the centerline of ILS19 and had to come back (which should not be a big deal normally) and when tower cleares them for ILS 19 she says 2700 and the reply sounds to me like 2300 feet.
In the rough area of the crash just ahead on the flight path are some long buildings basically on the runway alignment. Wonder if the pilot spotted those and thought runway. Too soon would account for the sudden attitude change and increased descent rate.
Condolences to all those involved. Although I may be mistaken but it sounds like on the readback for the altitude to establish on the localizer the pilot said either 2300 or 2500 feet, and not the 2700 feet the subtitle says.
He was cleared down to 2700 feet, but it sounded to me like he read back 2300. Not saying that’s why he crashed, but it’s another hole in the Swiss cheese. That and the wrong tower frequency.
Hmmm, all seemed fairly well until the part the CCTV shows...sudden power loss due to bird strike or fuel starvation 🤔 RIP to the deceased and best wishes to the survivors, I'm amazed looking at that sink rate.
5:30 am the controllers were probably at the end of their night shift and the pilots had to start flying in the middle of the night so everyone's tired
The Pilot asked several times whether the ILS aproach is aviable, this was confirmed several times too. But it looks like the ILS was faulty, they changed suddenly the glideslope and the nose gone steeper down. May be pilot error Or ILS error? Technical issues?
@@cola98765Now I have read the pilot died, the co-pilot is in critical conditions. It would be really strange that someone survived without injuries. Even without fireball.
Holy.. I don't know if it caused the accident or not but.. - wrong QNH readback - wrong ILS altitude readback - wrong tower frequency readback none of them were corrected by the controller?..
@@VASAviationMaybe it's the language barrier, but I hear a read back of 2,300 ft. Regardless, a 500ft below intercept alone wouldn't have been a causal factor.
@@VASAviation 0:39 0:40 QNH 1020 and readback was 1019 I am aware, 1 hP of difference does not make a huge change, and I am also aware that it can change by air conditions, still unless there is part cut at 0:39 the readback was not correct.
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This comment will be continuously updated as more information releases.
Please leave your condolences here.
As far as I read from local media, the plane crashed right next to a house, 12 people were evacuated from the house. The house was barely touched by the debris.
My condolences to all involved. I wish quick recovery for the injured ones.
13:30 did the pilot replied saying 2500 ft instead of 2700 that was commanded by approach? ?
@@Mr.Laidukas I hear him say 2700'.
@@VASAviation I've listened it 200 times at least only after your comment :) I think he says 2500
@@most-average-athelete I hear 2700' pretty clear but still that's no factor for the crash. There are no obstacles that affect to establish the glideslope at 2500' or even 2300' as others have mentioned. You descend below the glidepath, yes, but that's ot likely the cause of the crash. 2300' is altitude check on 5 miles. They crashed 1 mile short.
Incredible that anybody survived at all given the size of the fireball. My thoughts go out to the deceased person's family, and I hope for a speedy recovery of the three injured participants.
Exellent work, Victor! Thank you!
According to local news, crew cabin during the crash, got separated from the burning fuselage. Person who was not in the cockpit has relatively minor injuries, however cockpit crew was not as lucky, with 1 dead, 1 unconscious whole time and 1 who was initially conscious but ... Not at the moment.
What a tragedy...😭
that is insane that anyone survived a crash like that
Cute sergal
the cockpit was separated from the burning part of the aircraft
probably 2 factors that helped, 1 they're a cargo flight. So whole crew in the front(4 ppl if the info is correct), nobody in the back. So the after part can take most of the impact,
2nd, they configured for landing( with gear out/flaps) and had a low approach speed, so the impact will be less.
But yeah, fly blue sky.
That's a really fast upload. Thanks for all your effort!
Wow. This was a quick grab and upload. Thanks for this information, Victor. My sincerest condolences to the family of the deceased, and well wishes for swift recovery to those injured in this incident.
Rest in peace, I hope for a speedy recovery for all those injured
I was checking in at Vilnius airport when this crashed and didn't hear anything, I was very surprised to only hear about it once I'd landed in Luton. Our flight was delayed but the pilot just said due to an incident with the fire brigade.😳 crazy times. R.I.P to the pilot.
Why should he put into unnecessary stress all the passengers in his airplane? You never know how people can react including unmanaged panic attacks.
@@Ig86 I'm not suggesting he told us🙄doh ., I'm just surprised that at the airport it was all very quiet and business as normal.
I guess with the crash happening outside the airport boundary, the only direct impact on the airport is that they don't have their fire engines because they have left the airport to respond to the crash. They can't operate without fire engines. So technically your pilot was accurate - it was the absence of the fire brigade rather than the crash itself that delayed you.
@@thomasdalton1508 Indeed.
Sheeshhh how anyone inside that plane survived is beyond crazy
the cockpit was separated from the burning part of the aircraft
@@LuKas_146 another 2 crew members were behind pilots ? Front part of the plane.. ?
Rest in peace pilot 💔
Got goosebumps hearing the twr controller after the crash :(
Yes - his shaken voice and obvious attempt to stay calm.
I'm sorry to hear that, and thanksfor the quick upload. My condolences to the victim's family. I hope the others make a full recovery, and the cause of the accident is found quickly.
It's a horrible day for aviation... my condolences to everyone's families affected by this.
R.I.P
What else happened?
@@tombley5760Russian Sukhoi superjet 100 had a bad landing and caught fire in Antalya, Turkey.
@VASAaviation would you be able to look into that one? A45051 Sochi to Antalya. Thank you!!!
I heard of this crash jusd 5 minutes ago, yet Victor's upload is 2 hours old. Nice work.
RIP to rhe FO.
Thank you Victor, for the speedy upload. Much appreciated.
Should be noted that approach gave the wrong ATC frequency (Vilnius tower is 118.205, the given frequency was 118.5 and the read back was 118.05). That's possibly a distraction factor and that's most likely why after the transfer we didn't hear from postman again. That's also why both frequencies gave a landing clearance, in hopes that postman was on one of them
Nice point. After watching again I realize that Approach indeed says ONE ONE EIGHT TWO ZERO FIVE. Quite fast, difficult to hear. Then for Postman I clearly hear ONE ONE EIGHT ZERO FIVE. Definitely read back the wrong frequency. Shouldn't be much of a factor since frequencies are listed in charts. You call a couple times without reply, either you come back to previous frequency for confirmation or you switch to the correct frequency yourself.
Should also be noted that at 1:31 18D doesn't read back the correct altitude.
@@VASAviation the issue with that is it might not be a factor at 10 miles or more, but you don't have much time at 4 miles, could be quite a distracting factor taking into account they were overspeeding (judging by the localiser overshoot which only happens when people don't follow speed restrictions) and also considering they were in full IFR weather up until 800-900 FT. You won't be looking at charts for the frequencies at this stage of flight
@@samiraperi467 he, he did read it back correctly.
@@VASAviationour lithuanian atc rules demand that you say "decimal" when mentioning comma. She didnt and that added to the mistake list.
Condolences to the family of deceased and 🙏 for those injured. Amazing quick footage, Victor.
It was so lucky that there wasn't more deaths from people inside their homes, my thoughts are with the family of the deceased.
Lets hope this isn't anything narfarious.
I think anything nefarious is very unlikely. We will all be aware of the DHL fire, but there is nothing here to suggest an explosion or fire.
Something "nefarious"? Like a member of the crew intentionally crashed it? What evidence is there to suggest that???
@@donmoore7785 People suspect Putin, but there's no evidence for that
Condolences to all involved
Flown into Vilnius countless times. The approach is a straightforward one. The behavior of the plane looks like it dropped suddenly the last few hundred feet- be that wind sheer, control input error or mechanical, its a sad day for those involed.
Pure speculation but more likely autopilot/autothrottle related failure or misuse/misunderstanding by the pilots, could be similar to the AMS crash - ILS capture without autothrottle (for various reasons), attempting to capture the glide from above with incorrect modes etc.
Source - pilot with over 10,000hrs on Boeings
@@g1344304 something like that seems plausible yes, it looks like the plane goes in a lineair way all the way down to the crash site.
Seems like sudden loss of power maybe?
@@g1344304 Like you said pure speculation but from the CCTV footage the aircraft appears to be on a fairly stable glide, looks right for a 3 degrees glide and the V/S increases rapidly a few feet from the ground. Could be something with the A/T like you said with the AMS crash but I don't think it was related to capturing the glide from above as it looks stable for a few seconds there.
looks like a CG shift to me. Maybe a sudden cargo move
Look at that established approach and then sudden change right before terrain.. man, RIP.
atmintis amžina. May that poor pilot's soul rests in peace.
At 2:16 She said "...contact Tower 118.205."
Readback was "118.05, Postman 18Delta"
No comms after that.
It's at least second incorrect readback. At 1:38 He said "Postman 18Zero, eh, 18Delta".
Could this somehow contribute to the accident? Was the pilot too tired?
Not to discourage speculation, as I do enjoy it but we don't have nearly enough information without the black box. Loose cargo, wind shear, mechanical fault, software fault, icing, radar fault, etc etc etc. First observation shows a large deviation followed by immediate attempted correction in the critical stage before landing. My speculation is we can't rule out most causes at this stage. Even the door falling off, it is a boeing.
Even something like a bird strike through the cockpit could kill or incapacitate the cockpit crew, medical incident, and so much more.
My point is, if you guys can rule out possible explanations or reason them less likely it'd be more impressive.
There were bombs detonating at DHL in Germany in the last time, this may have been a sabotage, given the proximity to the current war, it may have been an issue too.
A German spokeperson for the secret services should give a press conference soon today...
Not a birdstrike through a window for sure. Saw a post crash picture with intact cockpit windows.
Indeed. At the moment the reason for this crash can be everything. We simply don´t know it at the moment.
Based on the given data, pilots were flying IRKAL 2B arrival with ILS Z RWY 19 approach. MIZOP point minimums are 5000 feet and max 230 kt. After that, take the right turn heading 104 to VI412 (to intercept the ILS beacon), which you need to intercept at 3000 feet (max 210 kt). Next, fly the runway heading at 194 to D6.2 at 2700 feet, which is 6.2 miles from the runway threshold. This is the point where G/S must be alive, and the 3-degree descent must be maintained. It must have a stabilized approach (the aeroplane must be fully prepared for landing). From 3:04 to 3:07, you can observe a good 3-degree descent. However, at 3:08, you might notice the "dive" manoeuvre. I'm not sure about the pilot flying, but at least the pilot monitoring felt distracted.
Lithuanian authorities have little to no experience in air crash investigations. As it was a US plane, NTSB will provide all the help needed. I would bet on a pilot error or technical failure as two major factors, with minor mistakes from ATC.
An episode of Mayday- Air Crash Investigation is mandatory
Three people survived the disaster, let's hope they will still be alive.
Condolences to the victim’s family.
💜💜💜
Wow, RIP to the member who perished, and well-wishes for a full and speedy recovery to the ones who survived.
As always, you're the best source of information on an incident or accident.
Thanks for your invaluable work!
That´s a disturbing start into the new week.😯 Thank you very much for publishing the relevant radio communication so quickly.
My condolences to the family and friends of the deceased pilot.
th-cam.com/video/3A4ZuT-aFLs/w-d-xo.html
th-cam.com/video/5MHfeqvaBP0/w-d-xo.html
apparently few cctv footage from nearby
Am I seeing it wrong in the first video, or one of the planes' wings (right) goes down and touches the ground? So the plane flipped on the side?
first clip looks like bank angle and wingstrike, while second looks like massive pitch up.
Stall as they tried to recover too late?
Better quality of the first clip: th-cam.com/video/MXyXgSu5CBE/w-d-xo.html
I am very curious to see the preliminary report on this. Reaching a conclusion a few a hours after an accident like this based only on a video and the final radio transmissions, is far fetched. Thank you very much for the upload and your hard work.
A person that lives in Grigiškės says that the plane was rattling when flying above the city, hope they interview ground witnesses and get as much info as possible.
I listened back twice and clearly heard "two thousand, three hundred feet". I also see a few comments where the CG may have shifted, but I think that the pilot may have realized they were going down and tried to avoid some houses or larger buildings perhaps? CG is definitely a real possibility, but he could have also been trying to mitigate ground casualties.
Judging by the flight data just before the crash, they appear to have been on a wildly unstabilized approach, likely coming in both too fast and too high. Descent rates of over 2,000 fpm at 3,700 ft, and over 1,100 fpm at 1,000 ft. At one point they began to climb before rapidly sinking again. Very unfortunate event, I'm curious to see what the cause turns out to be.
it culd be a cargo not fixed coretly
They also seemed to have flown through the ILS localizer and had to turn back to capture it from the other side.
Looks like they made a large heading change, of course this would be inevitable for an intercept of much more than 30 degrees or so.
Anyone else getting stall vibes from that rate of descent? I'm seeing the comments about missing the glideslope, but surely they would realise that degree of drop.
ADS-B suggests 149 knots so not getting stall vibes here, but if the glide slope antenna was bent maybe (i think there was a storm?)
Icing.
@@IslandSimPilot Nope.
@@foobarf8766😂
Listen to the communication: Descend 2700 ft, readback: descend 2500.
Contact tower 118.205, readback 118.05
Condolences to the crewmember's family and all on the ground who lost their homes. Awful. I wonder if the incorrect QNH readback is the root cause... Damn. Not a good start to the week. Thanks for all your hard work Vas.
Only 0.01 off on the QNH. From the video I would guess icing is a factor.
No it isnt. They were flying an ILS which means the glidepath is independent of altimiter setting. And even if it would have been an approach without vertical guidance then 1hpa difference is 27ft. At 1 mile from rwy they should have been at aroud 300ft.
Terrible tragedy. Rest in peace.
3:05 You can see the angle of landing lights suddenly changes and go down about 4 seconds later, like the descending flightpath changed abruptly to steeper. Many possibilities: sudden loss of elevator control, unintended deactivation of ILS approach on autopilot, intended deactivation for manual final and trim settings wrong, sudden stalling due to deactivated speed/ thrust control, flaps not extended enough...
Fastest upload 😮 RIP for those who lost their lives 😢
Did they really read back 2700 feat? It's not clearly understandable. I hear twothousandtwelvehundred what makes no sense. Perhaps they understood 2200 and were way below the glidepath while flying manually.
two thousand svn hundred feet. Too fast. But definitely 2700'.
1.31, he readback 2500 feet.
@@petereef4001 I hear 2700' pretty clear.
He's flying an ILS so doesn't really matter if he got the altitude wrong by a couple hundred feet. He can see the Glideslope/altitude he should be at.
They are below the cloud cover. PAPI should be plainly in sight. Also, they 100% have a radioaltimeter.
How did 3 out of 4 people on that plane survive that?!
Airplane was very slow, very low, quite safe and airport and emergency services were nearby. And probably everybody was sitting at the front so didnt get into the "mincer".
@@tadass.2675Do we know if the three evacuated, or did they have to be extracted?
@@tadass.2675 Well 150kts is not slow :D
@@DanielsPolitics1 At least some of them had to be extracted according to local news.
@ Oh, that’s not good. Do we know how quickly the airport fire service got to the scene?
So sad to hear about it.
Pure speculation but most likely autopilot/autothrottle related failure or misuse/misunderstanding by the pilots, could be similar to the AMS crash - ILS capture without proper autothrottle (for various reasons), attempting to capture the glide from above with incorrect modes etc.
My personal opinion with over 10,000hrs on Boeings
I agree with you here. this was my thought.
Seems to roll left and pitch nose down….
The aircraft seems stable in the video up until it suddenly plummets from the sky. Based on the lights remaining pretty much in the same position the whole time this looks like a loss of airspeed close to the ground and likely not caused by weather or anything like that. Very sad for all involved.
Same thoughts...
At 3:07 the angle of the landing lights suddenly tilt down. With this the sinkrate increased as well as well.
The landing lights seem too high in my opinion, like they either didn’t have flaps out and were too slow, or did have flaps out - but were also too slow. Sounds like an unstable approach and they were behind the plane (asking for ILS clearance repeatedly so close to the ground.)
Yeah, angle of the landing lights seem to indicate a big nose-up attitude until stall and then the nose was dropped to recover from the stall, I don't remember if there is a stick pusher in the 737
@@EstorilEm So close to the ground? They were asking for approach clearance confirmation well before mizop which is ~16NM before runway and minimum 5000ft .
A lot of speculation going on here…
737 only has a stick shaker. Stall recovery is like in every other conventional plane: nose down, wings level, thrust increase smoothly, flight path recover smoothly
While the incorrect altitude read-back may not be a factor as far as terrain obstacles, it does potentially point to an overall problem of fatigue, task saturation, other factors, etc. Also approach giving the incorrect ATC frequency just adds to the swiss cheese model. RIP to the pilot and healing energy to the survivors, friends, and families affected by this horrible event.
I hear the pilot reading back the correct altitude. However he got wrong the QNH first, then his own callsign, then the frequency (although bad spoken by ATC)... Cargo pilots are more prone to fatigue. That's a fact.
@@VASAviation Indeed. The video of the plane appearing to be stable on final, then suddenly *not* stable is interesting. Not familiar with whatever Lithuanian investigative branch that handles plane crashes but hope to see a thorough report in the future.
At 1:32 the pilot was given 2700 but sounds like the read back was 2300 and the pilot asks tower to confirm. However, the tower’s reply was stepped on. Not sure if that 400 foot difference would cause a crash, but it seems there was definitely some confusion about the ILS.
He said 2700'. Anyway that wouldn't cause a crash.
The acft was a bit high on the approach, what happened on short final, the rate of descent did not seem harsh (on the video) how they crashed in front the rwy. Interesting what happened in the cockpit on the last 2 miles before the crash
The approach attitude of the aircraft seemed to on a stable 3 or maybe 3.5 degree angle as it descended …Also,…….
.It looks as if the aircraft is being completely controlled all the way to impact.
It also appears that the weather / landing visibility would allow the pilots to see the runway / airport environment ……. I’m only guessing here, but unless there was some sort of freak two-engine failure on short final (or) an auto flight mode /. Panel malfunction, (or) sudden flight control failure… the pilots should have been in a position to perform a go around…..
If the ILS was being flown,.. obviously they would have below glideslope indications at or below the DA that far from the runway…..AND if no runway lHIRLS insight… shouldn’t be going below 100’ …….a Go-around would be performed… 🤔🤔🤔🤔
The FACT i almost was a victim of this crash is crazy. I saw it on a BUS
wings level entire descent?
@@jonasbaine3538last 10 seconds the hat to pitch down, soomething happened, dont think it was pilots fault. Another video was released where u can see that in the last moment the pitch full up trying to survive. terrifing. RIP for the spanish pilot and wishing a speed and good recover to the crew.
@@mariohurtado260 how you know it was a spanish pilot? here in Germany they only say "it was a crew member" on the news...
@@btudrus Confirmed as Spanish a few hours ago.
They read back the wrong QNH value (1019 instead of 1020). That's not good. Well, I guess they would be too high, but still not good.
That's no factor. They read it back correctly just before the approach when Approach repeats the QNH 1020.
You know QNH changes due to weather conditions.... So early QNH was 1019 and later was updated...
1 millibar error makes just 26 feet difference, not much
They were on an ILS .. even if their QNH was wrong .. and ILS doesn’t suffer from “QNH blunder error “ so if followed correctly it would guide them all the way to the runway safely. Had they been on an Rnav ( non precision ) in that case yes .. QNH could have played a factor .. however .. it seems apparent they were visual
With the runway .. so even if their QNH was incorrect .. they could have clearly corrected visually .. so overall I do t think QNH was a factor.
That looks more like controlled flight into terrain to me.
That’s what I’m thinking based on radar return and video. It looked stabilized all the way in.
@@davidmichael5573I think they stalled it based on behind behind the plane in audio and the angle of the landing lights. CFIT is hard to do when you can see the obstacles and you’re obviously going to be looking since you’re in landing phase.
@ based on where they were when they broke out of the soup is the reason for my guess. They were way to low being that far out.
So it was dark, clouds at 500 or 700 feet. No indications of engine problems or any other reported malfunction. It looks like they were able to see the runway, judging on the footage at the end of this video, and visibility was according to the Metar 10.000 meters. Wind was 17 knots, direction 180 degrees, which is nearly runway heading. What went wrong on final?
Don't want to get ahead of the investigation but cargo pilots are sometimes the ones rejected by the airlines. Like in the Prime air crash on approach in Houston TX some time ago....
100% pilot said 2300, on 0.25 playback clear as day it's not 2700
Did i mishear it or did the Pilot read back 2300ft? It sounds like it
He said 2700'.
I heard the same 2300. They did not say 2700 vas.
I hear him say 'two thousand three hundred feet'. That startled me on the first listen, and that is all I hear when I repeat, with good headphones (and old ears!) 1:30 is the timestamp.
@@jinitom I hear 2700'.
Sorry, You are wrong. He said 2500 ft. If you reduce the speed to 0,5 times you can hear it loud and clear.
Looks like he was aiming for the wrong aimpoint short of RWY. The descend rate looked nice or maybe a bit steep but not crazy from the video. Do we know if its any windsheer in the place?
RIP, Postman!
What I noticed from the radar ads-b is that they seem to overshoot the localizer, but that happens more often, has not to be in any connection to the crash. From the video images it looks like a stable descend. Not a sudden loss of control. Maybe a cfit (controlled flight into terrain) caused by the low clouds, overcast at 700 ft? But that is a speculation...
Landing lights appear to be at a higher up angle? Could nose up approach have caused a stall?
I'm looking at the METAR data provided and am wondering if icing may be at play. Not necessarily airframe/engine icing, but windshield icing causing PIC to misidentify the runway. 01/M01 is pretty saturated along with a low ceiling at night.
My guess is that a sudden move of cargo caused a CG shift. Do we have AOA data?
Hm so no longer fire in the cargo bay as expected by many (maybe you heard about a package burning in a parcel hub some weeks ago, suspected to be a sabotage activity also aiming at air transport between Germany and the Baltics)
the video shows a dive near the end so loose cargo or stall maybe? Even its a stall for it to nosedive seems more like runaway trim or some flight control related issue. You guys think stall?
Looks like UTN7022 wanted to look what happen on the crash site... 🤪
Just saw the news on DW. Came here straight afta that
That’s sad, but a miracle that anyone survived. As far as speculation, I don’t know… sounds like they were behind the plane for the entire approach and likely confused, hence asking for ILS multiple times. I don’t think the plane “was fine, then dropped out of the sky all of a sudden like wind shear” as some are saying - if you look at the angle of the landing lights, it seems like a VERY high AoA to me - like they either weren’t configured correctly but continued to slow, or perhaps were configured but just didn’t monitor their speed.
Not wanting to seem cold, but theres no need to inconvenience everyone else because of this crash. The runway is clear, departures could all leave, and arrivals use the opposite direction landing.
So sad to hear of this tragic event with the loss of life and I’m sure life changing injuries. Thoughts go out to all involved.
Maybe I’m hearing things but I’m sure he read back 2500 ft. 1:30.
Not knowing the area. Does anyone know if it’s a high wind shear area?
These events are luckily so rare within the EU that they somehow hit different (no pun intended). Hope those who are injured are making a speedy recovery.
My fear of flying as somebody from this country has just increased.
Clearly something wrong happened with intercepting that localizer. V/S at -1200 ft when in the glide, no readback from the pilots, they should have done a missed approach if it was even possible
Tired cargo pilots trying to finish the night?
Cupple of things i noticed:
They ask if they are cleared for the ILS after MIZOP -> tower does not answer to that; tower then cleares them for ILS, normally i would expect a „turn heading XXX cleared ILS 19“ but that did not occur. Then they overshot the centerline of ILS19 and had to come back (which should not be a big deal normally) and when tower cleares them for ILS 19 she says 2700 and the reply sounds to me like 2300 feet.
Cleared via MIZOP. No vectoring required.
In the rough area of the crash just ahead on the flight path are some long buildings basically on the runway alignment. Wonder if the pilot spotted those and thought runway. Too soon would account for the sudden attitude change and increased descent rate.
Quick recovery to persons on board. Glad that there were no ground casualties.
I didn't even see this in the news feed
Condolences to all those involved. Although I may be mistaken but it sounds like on the readback for the altitude to establish on the localizer the pilot said either 2300 or 2500 feet, and not the 2700 feet the subtitle says.
He said 2700 feet pretty clear. Spanish accent and I'm Spanish.
Yes, sounds like 2500 to me.
@@saintchuck9857 I heard also 2500
I also hear two thousand FIVE hundred feet
He was cleared down to 2700 feet, but it sounded to me like he read back 2300. Not saying that’s why he crashed, but it’s another hole in the Swiss cheese. That and the wrong tower frequency.
I hear him say 2700'.
Hmmm, all seemed fairly well until the part the CCTV shows...sudden power loss due to bird strike or fuel starvation 🤔 RIP to the deceased and best wishes to the survivors, I'm amazed looking at that sink rate.
I will be checking Juan Browne's TH-cam Channel on his take on this crash.
And what's about SSJ100 AZO5051 at LTAI any recordings???
This makes no sense at all. I have no idea why this happened, it appeared that the airplane was in control in VFR conditions.
it seems that the horizon level is shifted?
1:30 it sounds the pilot said 2500 feet instead of 2700 feet
I don't think so.
@@VASAviation I don't hear the 2700 at all
@@novelhawk i agree it doesnt even come close to seven
All involved sound quite tired...fatigue???
Can already hear certain Swedish guy explain concept of Circadian Low once again.
Of course they're tired at 5:30am
5:30 am the controllers were probably at the end of their night shift and the pilots had to start flying in the middle of the night so everyone's tired
How non visual approach was possible?
There was a question asked to confirm ILS-Z after MIZOP -- but ATC just gave it to them? Overshot the localiser too :-/
If you survived this, would you fly again. Condolences to the family of the pilot.
Pilot read back 2500' instead of controller's 2700'. Not sure if factor.
At 03:11 you can see something from the tail of the plane - might be flames or smoke from explosion.?? Just after passing the trees
The Pilot asked several times whether the ILS aproach is aviable, this was confirmed several times too. But it looks like the ILS was faulty, they changed suddenly the glideslope and the nose gone steeper down.
May be pilot error
Or ILS error?
Technical issues?
How can there be survivors with this fireball?
It's a cargo plane, so everyone is in front, the fireball is obviously from fuel in the back.
@@cola98765Now I have read the pilot died, the co-pilot is in critical conditions. It would be really strange that someone survived without injuries. Even without fireball.
Vau, you can fill tower controller(s) voice, when they(him ?) realized that bad shit happened :|
Holy.. I don't know if it caused the accident or not but..
- wrong QNH readback
- wrong ILS altitude readback
- wrong tower frequency readback
none of them were corrected by the controller?..
He read back the CORRECT QNH, he read back the CORRECT altitude.
@@VASAviation I'd bet my right foot that he's reading back 2500 feet, no doubt whatsoever. He does not say 2700.
@@VASAviationMaybe it's the language barrier, but I hear a read back of 2,300 ft. Regardless, a 500ft below intercept alone wouldn't have been a causal factor.
@@VASAviation 0:39 0:40 QNH 1020 and readback was 1019
I am aware, 1 hP of difference does not make a huge change, and I am also aware that it can change by air conditions, still unless there is part cut at 0:39 the readback was not correct.
@@jm-holm I hear him say 2700'.
2024 is not good for aviation. My prayers to all who passed away in this accident.
I'm lithuanian and my uncle lived at that place he was scared
Were they too low when they intercepted the glide slope?
No.
Can you please turn down the engine sound at the beginning
❤
3:08 instant direction change
Lights pointed down. Did they stall?