Nassim Nicholas Taleb: Why Correlation is Unreliable
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 21 มี.ค. 2022
- At the 2022 Greenwich Economic Forum-Miami, Black Swan author, Nassim Nicholas Taleb explains why correlation is unreliable at a due diligence tool. Coming as it does during on ongoing pandemic and in the middle of Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine, Taleb also discusses Wars and Pandemics and puts them into their proper risk buckets.
@universainvestments8068 www.universa.net - ภาพยนตร์และแอนิเมชัน
![[THE DIGITAL FACTORY] Nassim Nicholas Taleb on Antifragile](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/g2LYTUEOn20/mqdefault.jpg)
This guy is tops, I have followed his writing ever since I realized he exposed who really pushed to repeal Glass-Steagall, Robert Rubin was a snake among snakes, He took advantage of a young President who didnt really understands Major League economics, I commend you Mr. Taleb for being on top of that story !
Great stuff.
Nassim truly doesn't give much of a hoot about following the crowd, telling a group that has benefitted from the historical decline in interest rates to get in cash or not invest is ballsy af 😂
I think he also hints at waiting for a black swan event or future unknown crisis to then invest, the only issue is it could happen 10 years from now or 10 days, we just don't know. Patience, which lends to Charlie Munger wisdom "the big money is not in the buying or selling but in the waiting ".
"It requires a lot of gullibility to believe in these methods" !!!
I love Nassim. Super smart guy. His books have made me view the world differently.
Inflation favors debtors (I owe same money on my house, but houses increases in value) and deflation favors creditors (guy making payments to me has to pay original price, but value of asset has reduced). Is there anything more to Taleb's point than this?
also inflation reduces the real price of the debt as well, since debt is a promise to pay cash, if the real cash of cash decreases, the value of debt decreases, as well ya if you buy a house, those prices tend to go up. But that's the whole point of finance, the management of risk, they TEND to go up.
@@plainguy3567 what i said isn't backwards bro, i read your like muddled all of the place response, you have some weird ass understanding of economics and finance. The thing i typed was like finance 101 stuff, you can look it up if you want but.
What you typed is like some schizo shit, take your meds dude.
if you choose too ignore all the references about fat-tail event which is his main point...then...even then there are more points
Yes. Don't be a bildungsphilister.
If you can't hedge your fat-tail risks, don't invest.
My, if ever there was someone who thinks he's the smartest in the room, this chap is the one. And, how much money does he manage? Not much, from the available information we have. Now, there's a correlation for you.
Talk the talk, walk the walk.
Uma pergunta para todos:
Utilizando a estratégia barbell de Nassim Taleb, no quê vocês investiriam os 90% do lado super conservador e os 10% do lado super agressivo?
Obrigado
Conservador: uma casa para habitação, comida e mantimentos não perecíveis para aguentar a família durante vários anos (em rotação de stock), ouro físico, obrigações do tesouro americano de curta maturidade. Agressivo: bitcoin (custódia própria), puts do sp com strike nos 3500 para meados de 2023, calls de petróleo 200 usd para meados de 2023. E tu o que sugeres?
@@luisrei8689 muito obrigado. Eu ainda estou aprendendo. Obrigado pela sua disposição em ajudar. Eu ainda não tenho uma estratégia pronta. Estou estudando. Muito interessante sua estratégia barbell!!
@@luisrei8689 ótima resposta! No 10% arriscado, 30-yr US bonds (upside caso o cenário mude de inflação pra deflação), German bonds tmb de longa duração (upside caso a zona do Euro dissolva e um Deutschemark 2.0 seja criado e precificado acima do Euro atual), ouro físico (upside caso haja um bank run em paper gold, estimado em 50x1 com ouro físico), BTC como vc mencionou ou até mesmo uma altcoin (upside se o Fed relaxar a política monetária)
I like and appreciate much of what Mr. Taleb writes-and-says; however, I once made a critical remark on Twitter about one of his Tweets, and Mr. Taleb blocked me!! Ha!! Thus, in this way, he is just like other public intellectuals who automatically reject any criticism. Delbert Blanton, Kokomo, Indiana.
Can't explain how unclear and at the sametime logical he talks
He uses logic to expose what we imagine to be commonsense as nebulous at best.
His books are also like that. Confusing and kind of mind blowing at the same time.
True, I'm reading Fooled by randomness now 😂
@@dorsia6938 I found his books to be quite articulate even with all the rambling.
He is simplifying it to the general public. He prefers technical audience.
Haha...coin base is sponsoring nassim taleb...what a mockery of advertising. And how painful it is to see all this...
Great talk! Inflation is always monetary and leads to a debasement of the currency which is the broadly used unit of account. So Inflation is always a rise in ALL assets since the pricing function is disrupted to the downside. When there is "inflation" and only some assets rise in price (with well-known non-monetary causal reasons like shut-downs, wars, fires in Taiwan, trucker protests in Canada, and so on) then this is a price increase caused by supply shocks (not by money printing).
And on top, there is the FED setting interest rates for their government "money", and financing government checks by debt, which is not the same as the globally used credit-money that is used in world-trade. The US-Governments and FEDs actions inflate the price of US-Markets. So all in all you have multiple phenomena. In simple terms: there are asset bubbles in housing, stonks, crypto (not inflation), there are price increases due to reptiloids playing war and pandemic (which is clearly not inflation because it is not caused by money printing)....
and then there is the real money aka credit economy in the shadows of the offshore market (much bigger than the FED and all countries together) where we simply don´t know what it is going on. No one knows how much "dollar" aka dollar-denominated credit is out there. No one knows if global credit is collapsing (deflation). What we know is that the world economy is for sure not booming because families are not booming. People in China, Germany, Japan, Taiwan, Thailand, Indonesia, Brazil, and so on stopped reproducing, they show higher suicide rates than ever in human history.
So it is much more complex than the simple "money printer goes brrr" narrative. As Taleb said, CASH is the asset to hold, because when asset bubbles collapse, the whole world runs into dollar-denominated assets. Dollar cash is not the same as the US-Dollar banknotes printed by the US-treasury. Both are assets denominated in USD. That's the thing why most people don't understand this "paradox". Most dollars out there (in the offshore aka euro-dollar market) are not US-Dollar. And cash is not what the layman calls "cash". Cash is an inflation hedged basket "numeraire" and has nothing to do with your paper money and simplified world view. But when you really think your paper house is worth 2 Million dollars (because of the almighty FED) while no person is able to pay rents justifying that price, then no one can help you. Go buy more stonks, Bitcoin, and houses.
hey can you suggest me some books to understand this stuff better, thanks
@@wilhelm.reeves He's more confusing that Taleb.
1:51 Yes, but you didn't just "jump straight into it" did you?
🔥🔥🔥
Sei como é mestre eles perdem até a voz. Fica abalado emocionalmente. Imagino vocês no pentágono.
The sound quality was really bad. Sounded like he is speaking from a 1920 old radio. No noise reduction at all neither sound sufficient balance.
@@---nu4ed really? how is bad sound work my problem? lol
Think of nations as assets (their people, universities, parks, buildings, land, resources, etc.) and that qualify assets tend to maintain value over time. Therefore, with worldwide low interest rates benefiting assets and the wealthy as he posits, then the US, the wealthiest nation ever, should benefit the most under current threats. Thus, quality assets, in general, within the US should do fine over time.
@@passiveaction Trillion dollar coins, backed by some of these assets could erase much of the debt, if needed. So far, the world understands this and buys its debt to receive dollars. Plus, current inflation reduces the impact of the debt, as it grows GDP..
@@passiveaction The same misinformation as in 1971 when we went off the gold standard. Wake up! As long as millions of people are risking their lives to come to the US and the 4th Industrial Revolution continues - digitization, the latest being AI, and CA’s Nvidia the latest trillion dollar company, only good news except for the US states which want to go back to the 1700’s.
1000th like ❤️
Value investors are the same, in times of uncertainty, get out, stick with cash.
I just have a bad feeling about crypto. Unless it’s government backed in some way, it may just be a sinister tool to offset the creation of money (M1 to M3 exponential) by way of global busts (incredible losses).
You're right about 99% of cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin is fundamentally different from any other however. It doesn't need government backing in the same way that gold doesn't because of its intrinsic monetary properties (scarcity, portability, durability, divisibility, immutability etc). People tend to think that all money needs "government backing" because we live in an age of fiat currency, whereas historically this hasn't been the norm.
😂 Good instincts on that one :)
15:35 How does cash protect from inflation ? That was the question here
He jumped ahead of himself but they're a hedge against the contraction of asset prices he talks about at the end of the talk.
@@ihave3heads No disrespect. But i think you are fooling yourself that you understood. How is having cash instead of asset protects against inflation. The only way is to invest the money in something that is tied to the inflation. If there is no answer to this, then it should have been explicit instead of giving a confused answer
@@johnhammer8668 Well the question was "what's the best way to hedge against fat tails", not just inflation. Cash is a solid answer; but regarding inflation, it is at like 9% now, whereas SP500 is -16% YTD.
@@12345krillin Was this consistent all the time . i.e SP500 was always worse than cash during inflation?
@@johnhammer8668 Interesting question. I see that from 1967 to 1983 was a period of very high inflation in the US. The SP500 was at around 850-900 in 1967 and was at 480 at the end of 1983. This period was marked by multiple recessions and massive interest rate hikes and drops in attempts to combat inflation, a crazy time overall.
According to USInflationCalculator, $1 in 1967 would be $3 in 1983, an inflation rate of 200%. So your cash value would've dropped by 66% whereas the SP500 dropped by around 50% (for this period).
In conclusion, this was not consistent all the time. There are times within this period where cash outperforms the SP500 (such as when SP500 drops to 372 or 325 in 1974 and 1982 respectively) but at the end of the total period, the SP500 comes out better.
Here is a podcast we did on NN Taleb recently. Worth checking out: th-cam.com/video/6KiLxIN0rlk/w-d-xo.html
This guy Taleb is a wise sage. He literally called out the risk of a pandemic back in his Black Swan book.
😅 That's why he is wise? Absolutely everyone knows that always there is the risk of a pandemic. The pandemic was not a black swan, as also Taleb said. So many so-called Taleb fans still don't understand his work.
@@dit4963 Ok, nerd. 🤓
@@lashlarue7924 🤡
@@dit4963 🤓[autistic screeching]
Bud, there were Government advising experts in virology indicating that for 20 years. The gent at the top in the UK was unsurprised by SARS Covid-19 he was so alert to the epidemics around the globe and personally attended most of those since the 1980s. We are fools.
10:40, biology and evolution don't work with improvement as a canon for progress, they just "are", and some organisms that were fit for certain environments little by little become more adapted to other environments, in no place in nature there is room for the concept of improvement, it is a human concept based on culture and personal principles.
Iterations.
does evolution ensure fitness improves over time?
you've taken it too literally.
The other guy seems to suggests we may learn from dealing with uncertainty. Taleb argues that's almost never the case. Even though we tend to think that improvment happens when someone learns and becoms better, it's almost never like that; instead, it's like evolution: those who don't act rationally just die out and those who survive will take their place. Basically, we're talking about improvement at the level of the population, not at the level of the individual.
I'm generally a Nassim fan but 15:35 on where he says being in cash during inflation... makes zero sense to me
Because cash is the most valuable asset when the assets cash purchases stop "inflating" and come crashing down. There is data supporting this coming out of the 1970s and 80s recession.
@@NickMart1985 But how does it protect from inflation ?
@@johnhammer8668 Nothing "protects" from broad based inflation other than trying to predict which assets will inflate the most and owning them.
Broad based inflation from currency debasement impacts everything. Real wealth is a function of buying power, not how much currency units one owns.
The idea is to hoard currency units while there is an excess, and wait for the coming demand and wealth destruction as value is destroyed within the economy.
@@NickMart1985 you mean not owning them
@@johnhammer8668 i mean buying them before they reach some theoretical top.
taleb avoids the risk of straining his back while putting on some socks
Things in common in people which invented things or discover things with their own hands for the benefit all humans; is long hair, thing in common with people that all do is just talk and talk and takes all the credit is that they are bald.
strangest comment I've seen
I like that - worth testing.
Cash is king
Cash sucks… invest Berkshire
At the brink of mass inflation cash is the stupidest thing to carry
@@rednarok on the brink of deflationary depression, cash is the best thing to hold!
@@mattreddy2979 deflation? HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
@@rednarok ⏳
"Proper risk buckets" say the notes to this video. That's awfully certain language for reality... when will this proper bucket be known and available? LOL!
Love Nassim, but I felt this interview was kinda all-over-the-map. There didn't seem to be a line of reasoning that connected all the dots. In fact it seemed Nassim was constantly looking to the other guy for clarifying words or something.
Like I said, Love Nassim, not a fan of this particular video. And perhaps I am a moron, and missed the whole point. That is an option.
Is he saying “fat tails” or “fractals” or WTF?
18:02 Lockout not lockdown. Genius.
Don’t know how he managed to write several best selling books Talking like this.
books have to go through an editor thank god
@@jetblack8250 He is a natural at writing
It's his talking and not the sound quality or your problem?
@@jetblack8250 Skin in the Game didn't, geez.
He is so preoccupied with nonlinearity he thinks nonlinearly. Not a coincidence I'm sure.
This comment section is like a Muslim fan boy club
Has ethnically cleansing white males from jobs and power in America been good for white males? Seems women and minorities replaced white males, europeans in America. Was that great for European males in America? The life expectancy for European males in America has been declining since 1999, only group in America to decline, no European decline in life expectancy anywhere else in the world. Why has affirmative action ethnic cleansing been great for European males in America?
Most of them are less qualified than hard working foreigners.
✌🏻👌✌🏻
🥱🖐Wall Street is fully controlled🤞🐷
A lot of shiny bald pates.
Everyone commenting that it's difficult to understand Nassim, it's literally a you problem. He's very articulate and clear, the issue is that you are unable to understand other accents.
No. He does leap ahead with side-light knowledge which a listener may not know. That retards the understanding, until Mr Taleb gives an example to give clarity. But he leaps from point to point much faster than most speakers with expertise.
Nassim is quite a good writer but has poor presenting skills, I find myself falling asleep..
That's your problem
I like Nassim but I thought the same. It’s hard to follow his train of thought. Also it assumes you have already read half his books. A nice counter example are the new videos by Ray Dalio, very well articulated and easy to understand.
Scientist are not teacher and are not public speaker, they don't have responsibility of talking in the way we understand , specially if they are not speaking in their native languages. People used to learn an entire languages to be able to understand what scientist are saying, here we sit, with opportunity of understanding some of greatest ideas about uncertainty in real world and economic and finance which has critical practical importance and yet we are falling sleep
@@DD-ut2ew He cant explain main concepts in any interview, he use almost minimal necessary technical terms and concepts in his speech...he has done more than his part, if you were interested enough in learning his great ideas and theories you could.... he has short lectures explaining main concepts in his TH-cam channel...and most of concepts that he is using are not specific to his book and you can understand them by searching (and lots of thinking of course)
@@alijvn3783 I still appreciate him and follow him. But I also think he could improve that part. He chooses to be a public person and share his opinions with the world - if he improves that he will he able to reach more people with his ideas. It’s a lesson to us all, to improve our speech (as the hated by Taleb, Jordan Peterson says :))
This is gibberish. It makes no sense.
it is not gibberish and makes perfect sense.
Mathematical holding money is like taking a bear position in all assets.
Taleb is frustraing becasue his writing is part math, part filosophy, part story telling, part ancient culture, part nature all mixed together. His speaking is also frustrating. His "ideas" sound simple at times but then they get muddled up. I heard he was working on a math book to explalin an alternative to correlation and standard deviation, in other words the correct tools.
Plus I don't think its correct when he says people naturally believe things are getting better. I think its the opposite, people tend to feel things are getting worse. Please read Hans Rosling's book Factfullness. And I can do without the personal attacks. I have Randomness and The Black Swan under my belt. Antifragile is next. Cheers!
I agree with you, sir.
Please wear socks :(
This guy is scam
Could you explain how ?
@@seren1ty755 Having to substantiate slander is no fun!
Your existence is scam
Your mom's a scam.