4 years late to this comment on a 6 year old video but its got its issues if a team has a bad defense they could potentially never get the ball for the entire game (or atleast the half) if the other team has a good offense
@@tubadude07 I'm not sure if this is actually .MIDI. If it is, that's a pretty nice sound font. Regardless, it's certainly some very low bitrate early 2000s audio. The sort of thing you might save on an old floppy disk and play with RealPlayer.
It's been 3 years but I may have had an epiphany about the strange chart at 6:45 Maybe average points on drives that start between the 40-49 dip lower because that sample includes many failed onside kicks at the end of games, meaning the offense is probably in a situation where they just finish running the clock out and aren't really trying to score
You know, this actually crossed my mind too but I kinda shook it off because I didn't think there would've been enough onside kick attempts to account for such a noticeable discrepancy in such a large sample, but then I saw your comment and looked into it. Turns out there were exactly 300 onside kicks attempted from just 2017-2021, of which most were recovered between the 40-49 (and most others recovered past the 50 where the chart gives us no data). If we were to expand those 300 attempts across the full time period Jon studied it could easily account for why a team appears more likely to score when they're further away. AND guess what, all that said, the tiny difference in a teams chance to score from their own 30-34 versus their own 25-29 is likely attributed to the squib kick. I didn't look into that at all but it would make perfect sense to me considering squibs are popular at the end of halves or games to prevent the unlikely kickoff return TD and are generally recovered in this 30-34 yard zone. There are even fewer squib kicks than onside kicks but the difference is only 0.05 points. It very well could just be mere coincidence or "freak deviation" as Jon suggests, but I'd like to think the squib at least plays a role.
I came to comment the exact same thing. It's a significant enough dip that it has to come from onside kicks where the winning team doesn't want to score
2:22 "This is a sample of the 30 kick return touchdowns between the 2013 and 2016 seasons. I studied the tape and traced the route of the return man on each play. Originally, I wanted to see if I could identify some kind of trends, some kind of trick that made some returns more successful. But honestly, the only advice I could give is to be Cordarrelle Patterson." I hope Patterson gets inducted to the HOF and Jon Bois introduces him with this exact speech.
Even if Patterson never scores a 9th return TD, he's still the best kickoff returner of all time, because no one else could have done 8 with the new rules.
Schiano’s idea is actually brilliant. I was still on the side of the kickoff all the way up until you suggested that idea. Hopefully someday it gets put into effect...
Was also thinking about this. Maybe a 4th and 20 might be better for everybody, more chance of regular teams in regular games to just punt and surrender the "extra" possession.
@@DJsocial7102 The Broncos put it forward earlier this year. Once per game, in the fourth, a team may elect to keep the ball for a non-puntable 4th and 15 to try and convert for a first. It's only similar to Schiano's with the numbers - the point is to replace the onside.
I can think of a college game where they punted on first down to get yards. The field conditions were so horrible, there was so much snow on the ground, neither team was actually playing football. They were just sliding around on the snow with one guy folding a football. So they started punting on first down to back their opponent towards their own endzone. The object being the opposing team couldn't get anywhere either, forcing them to punt . So by punting on first down you've gained yardage. I believe the team that lost got one first down. The team that won had no first downs.
The 1950 Snow Bowl between Michigan and Ohio State. Michigan won 9-3, earning them the Big Ten conference championship and a berth in the 1951 Rose Bowl
I’m a Brit, almost never watch NFL and don’t really know anything about it and yet, this was so enjoyable. The spatial animation, the music, the enjoyable architectural discussion at the end... brilliant mate. Well done
I played college football as an attempted walk-on to a Big 12 team. I also love statistical analysis and the use of data and visualizations to make better decisions in everything, sports included. Not only does Jon make perfectly good points here, but an alternative to kickoffs, like the Schiano rule would, would have saved me the devastating concussion and neck injury that had marred my life since 2009. Purging kickoffs is a good decision on very front.
Matthew Romano so what you are saying is that you watch a watch party and THEN go to an actual party? So yo go to two parties, the chart and the real one.
I've searched for the footage, but there's no sign, just more important games from 84, and some cheesy Football 101 videos staring Phil McConkey, the scorer of the "fumble recovery" touchdown. Interestingly, the Rams forced 3 safties, two of which were blocked punts.
Yeah, I don't see a touch there, though admittedly the quality is quite bad. If he had touched it he would have gone for it (punt return instincts). But because his punt return instincts said not to touch it, that would further indicate that the ball was never touched.
That Schiano idea is actually brilliant for several reasons. For one, if you're trying to make a comeback it would be much easier to succeed and make several games every week more exciting. It would put an increased emphasis on offensive success, and we all know that high-scoring games are better for ratings. But it's also good if you're trying to AVOID a comeback. If you have a good offense but a bad defense, you could just decide to try to hold onto the ball. No more worrying about "oh no don't score because you'll leave the other team with too much time". Just pull out a trick play and go on another drive. Yeah, that would be exciting. I'd petition for that.
The issue I see with the Schiano rule is (I'll admit, rather dumb), the NFL's role as guide to lower levels of the sport. If you were to have this rule at the high school level mismatched teams would end up having games where one side wont even touch the ball until they are already down by 50+ points and the winning team is just punting to be nice. As a guy that played for one of those really bad teams, this would be far more discouraging than five straight 3 and outs.
I feel like it would turn the game into putting all your emphasis on big play offense. If you have a dominant offense, it would be possible to play an entire game without putting your defense on field. You can technically attempt this with on-side kicks, but with a super low success rate, it's not worth the risk. Start giving people 4th and 15s instead of kickoffs, then it starts to be worth the risk. If you can keep your dominant offense on the field 1/4 of the time or push those numbers up to 1/3 of the time, it'll change the game entirely.
Random_stuff333 That's not true, in the video it says 4th and 15 has a 21% success rate, as opposed to the 5% success rate of an onside kick in the 4th quarter. Onside kicks are only 25% successful in the 1st-3rd quarters when nobody is expecting it.
I have to force myself to not watch your videos for a period of time. They're so damn good/interesting/addicting that I almost get upset if there is only one to watch. I had seen all your material a cpl months back and now I have a cpl to watch in a row, but still doesn't feel like enough. MAKE MORE VIDS
I'm not sure if you read comments Jon, but I'd like to let you know that there are whispers of abolishing the kickoff at the high school level nationally. A lot of safety rule changes happen from the ground up, so if it's implemented in High School the rule could make its way up the chain eventually. I agree with you, most of the in-game rule changes the last few years at the High School level have been regarding the kickoff. We're regulating it so much just to get a slight decrease in injury in this inherently dangerous play that we may as well just abolish and replace it.
Yes in college and high school, hell even in middle school the first day of practice you are given a helmet and go over the label warning that is on the back of every helmet describing every risk you are taking by playing this sport, no one is forcing anyone to play and we do it for the love of the game.
14:04 Eric LeGrand came to speak at my school. He talked about the adversity that paralyzed and disabled people go through. I live like 1 and a half hours away from Rutgers
Nah, Josh Cribbs was a better kick returner. Hester was a better punt returner, but still great at kick returns. KR TDs Hester 5, Cribbs 8. PR TDs Hester 14, Cribbs 3.
And then he was discovered to be hiding the fact that his butt buddy was sexually abusing a child then he became one of the most hated people in football
if your talking about his proposal to remove kickoffs that would be a shitty idea, it would make offense the only part of the game that matters. You score then you get a 4th and 15, if your offense is good you will just convert and score rinse and repeat. you don't ever give the opponent the ball.
Shane Delancey How many coaches do you know who would go for it on 4th and 15 on their own 30? If a pass gets dropped the other team is already in field goal range
The NFL should at least trial the Schiano idea in some preseason weeks to see how coaches, players, and fans react to it. I love the idea that teams might seriously start spending more time strategizing and practicing fake punts. Then can we move the extra point line back to the 3? I hate that a kicking team now has to go 15 yards to get a 2-pointer on a bad snap.
Sounds like someone's never seen professional Snooker! But really the NFL is an exception where this rule would be a good change. There is not enough dynamic possession change, it very rarely happens outside of punts. Plus, every team has equal opportunity of taking the risk so neither team has an advantage.
FuckYouGooglePlus so, guys, you wanna tell him or you want me to? Ok I’ll do it. Teams who have been scored on have the option to kick off to the team that scored.
Maybe I'm lost. But even though it has only a 21% success rate. Wudnt a 4th and 15 be way easier for the team that just scored to keep the ball. Bcuz between scoring the initial touchdown and this play the coach has a lot more time create a play. Maybe I'm giving coaches too much credit or I'm missing something that I'd like to hear, but it seems easier to keep the ball after scoring or is more abusable. Note I'm not in support of kickoffs right now anyway
When I played football in HS, we all HATED Kick return. We run back a couple yards, turn around, and try to stop people running tens of yards at full speed. I wouldn't think of a way to fix it until you brought up that proposal.
I’m not sure what’s more ridiculous, the fact that TH-cam is suggesting this video for the fourth time or that I’m actually watching it (in it’s entirety) for the fourth time.
I think it's a combination of the receiving team recovering an onside kick. This gives them this type of field position, and they are often in a position to kneel, ending the game. The other thing that might influence this is the receiving team returning to this point at the end of the game, after a swing in the lead. The great return is often accompanied by a 3 or less point differential, meaning field goals are probably a higher number of scoring plays from this starting field position.
@@tohrazul tohrazul I have some thoughts with the onside kick theory here. First being kickoffs occur on your own 35, I would assume the average onside kick falls somewhere between 10-15 yards and leaves the ball between your 45 and midfield, which is a different piece of data that isn't shown at 6:40 therefore the majority of onsides probably don't factor in anyway. Second would be I would assume whoever recorded this data most likely factored out any end of the game onside kick over the 15 yard threshold to begin with, because it would massively skew the data.
@@peterson3420 I think the psychology is a bit part of this as well. If an offence starts at their own 45 instead of their own 25 and then drives to the opposition 40, they’ll have only gone 15 yards instead of 35. The offence will likely not be as confident or ‘on their game’ and will be more likely to turn it over or be forced to punt. Also, I can see teams being more aggressive when they start from their 45 instead of 25. I think the brains of coaches could think there’s less to lose (of course this isn’t true but confidence and personal views outweigh logic) and therefore they would go for it or try longer FGs more, which would likely result in a slightly lower scoring level, when combined with the effects of onside kick recoveries and squib kicks.
It’s funny because in sports like rugby you kick all the time in an “offensive” play. Would be cool to see teams try this on offensive especially at the college level if it’s allowed.
Henry Powell and his team have a blue team with the pro power team and they will be playing the ultimate game of football in a new home and the team will have a blue blue
Jon, you never fail to impress me. I'm a Bioinformatics researcher doing a lot of data visualization and your videos inspired me to make better looking, 3d presentations. I don't even watch sports.
"and not the ugliest, stupidest looking spectacle in organized sports in which dice is played with human bodies" What a perfect way to describe the onside kick
FuckYouGooglePlus How tf is that make it take it? It’s basically the same concept as kickoffs except the gamble has a higher probability and it is much safer
I mean you said "getting the chance to send your offense right back out" in both situations you can send them back out, if you want your offense to get the ball back you onside kick it and with the Schiano Plan you can get the ball back by fake punting or going for it on 4th and 15; which means if you do not get it then it is at least 3 points for the other team which does not make it "make it take it" since most teams would not go out there and go for it every time.
@GoodRiddanceGooglePlus its likely a decent portion of the 4th and 15 conversions were plays where the defense were expecting a punt. so the conversion rate where the defense is expecting a 1st down attempt is probably closer to 17% ish id guess. I'd like the idea of starting the down closer to the endzone to make it more of a risk than an onside kick to make up for the increased conversion rate. I think it's a very good idea, but either way no change will ever be made until kickoffs start killing people, and even then they'll wait a few more seasons.
Jon got his wish and now Rich Eisen and many NFL coaches are pissed off about it. It's kind of sad that for that occasional run back they would sacrifice a few injured players.
This is one of the best videos I have ever seen. Props for the research, incredible! Great statistics. Great analogies. Great jokes. Great solution as well.
About the use of onside kicks in the early days: The ball didn't get pointy until 1912 or so. It was a regular rugby ball prior to that. The changed ball was to make it easier to throw to promote use of the forward pass (forward pass was put in around 1907). This would probably also be the reason drop kicks aren't done anymore.
6:40 this is a valid point however even if they don't score and punt it gives them and advantage on defense and for a few drives they will most likely maintain better field position because of that kick return
I'm just back here because I like Jon Bois but don't have enough of him to watch, how did it go? I don't watch sports and I'm not American even if I did.
My God, it's like watching a Flash video from 1998. You know, only with quality content that makes an excellent point about a great cause, instead of cut outs of Colin Mochrie unhinging his chin to say baby words. RIP, MS Paint.
The nfl loves to have extra special conditional rules, so I would add the choice of 4th and 10 from the 1 or 4th and 25 from the 20. This way the scoring team is heavily insentivised to punt after a TD but has a doable "onside kick" option providing the are willing to drive the entire field.
I think about this ever time I see a kickoff and usually tell everyone watching about the Schiano proposal. And most everyone agrees that it's a good idea.
Imagine if the 2010 Chargers had played with the Schiano Plan. They’re special teams were so bad, and their offense and defense so good, that I believe there would have been a game where the opposing offense never saw the ball. Maybe that Chiefs game where the Chargers won 31-0 and only gave up 80 or so yards on defense.
Another thing that makes punting better is the fact that you can directional punt to pin them deep. With a kickoff you are penalized for an out of bounds kick which is stupid.
SynsityGW because a punt is a choice by the team to give the ball up (unless a safety) and a kickoff is a mandatory play designed to allow the opposition to have a good drive to keep the competition flowing
In Rugby, kick offs are fun and interesting. Teams are encouraged to pitch the ball to gain better field position. In Football, we have rules that enforce specialized players as non-ball carriers. Changing these rules may result in a less predictable game.
This was a great video. I was expecting to disagree and hate it, but it convinced me. Well done. (I too ride the subways, Chambers street is a nutty station)
I thought this was actual blasphemy until he brought up the Schiano Plan. I know JonBois took the piss out of Schiano for Breaking Madden and this is the perfect counterpoint to that. I also remember JonBois' Beeftank saying "Football is fun for everyone even you yes you". Keeping the games interesting til the end and limiting injuries is a big part of that, so I think Schiano's plan is.... kinda brilliant.
Love this video. I have long felt the same. Also love that you brought up the "kickoff punt" because I recall that solution being pitched around the time the touchback was moved. Really wish the football on all levels would adopt this
Does that data control for onside kicks? Possible I just missed that, but failed onside kicks do end up in the 40-49 range sometimes and generally result in no points (often by design).
good question. the data set of 15,598 kicks does not include onside kicks, for the reason you hinted at. a lot of unsuccessful onside kicks are followed by the winning team kneeling or just not really trying to score, so i didn't want to use that data.
I probably should have waited until the discussion about onside kicks to post the comment, but I have no impulse control. Really great video, and I do love the Schiano Proposal. I have to imagine the kickoff's days are numbered for the reasons you went over, but balancing tradition with logic yields multiple little tweaks like moving up the kickoff/touchback location rather than simply fixing the problem.
Whats going on with the chart at 5:30? I thought the green bar represented how frequently a kickoff was returned to that yard line, but then you said that kickoffs inside the 10 rarely happen. The green bar is highest at that specific yard range, which doesn't make any sense. Please explain this because its giving me a headache! Thanks again for a great video
Nick Folk scored a FG, a TD and an XP all in a row. Give that man the MVP
N P not to mention a 65 yard touchdown
10 points in three plays
@@cadenr06 1 play since kickoff and PAT dont really count as a play.
@@alexsid0017 I dont think you understand what he's saying.
@@hwhaht I dont think you understand what I'm saying, a kickoff and a PAT are not counted as plays
"He's just out there kicking touchdowns." LMAO
Joseph Spadafino Garo Ypremian would love it. "I KICK A TOUCHDOWN, I KICK A TOUCHDOWN"
Joseph Spadafino I laughed and read this comment at the same time
which is ironic cause that bum can't kick a field goal.
Ah jon bois....serenade me with your sultry voice.
I keeka d tushdun!!!
“It makes all the sense in the world, so no”
pretty much sums up the nfl
Chicken Boi pretty much sums up my life
F
I will do whatever it takes to get this change made.
I think that’s as close as I’ve ever seen him come to being angry
4 years late to this comment on a 6 year old video but its got its issues if a team has a bad defense they could potentially never get the ball for the entire game (or atleast the half) if the other team has a good offense
Everything is better with an ear-piercing midi saxophone solo.
The ATTIC DWELLERS for real
It does really emphasize the point being made.
The midi sax doesn’t sound bad though lmao
@@tubadude07 I'm not sure if this is actually .MIDI. If it is, that's a pretty nice sound font. Regardless, it's certainly some very low bitrate early 2000s audio. The sort of thing you might save on an old floppy disk and play with RealPlayer.
Its sounds too real to be midi but yes. Loud sax= good good.
So, we're basically twice as likely to get a concussion as a touchdown on a kickoff. Great.
Mike Garner I’m 1-0 in that department
The Sharting Mooch im 2-0 🤣🤣
I had my fibula fractured from a kickoff return back in 2010... I’m no Devin Hester
What his fantasy points look like for that?
@@yekaneast Great question lol
The end of an era. Thank you Jon, together with the XFL, we've changed the world.
Ain't no party like a chart party cuz a chart party is informative as well as entertaining
Relax say whaaaat?
Relax hi
This is most parties I go to
LOL well played.
Ain’t no party like a Diddy party
It's been 3 years but I may have had an epiphany about the strange chart at 6:45
Maybe average points on drives that start between the 40-49 dip lower because that sample includes many failed onside kicks at the end of games, meaning the offense is probably in a situation where they just finish running the clock out and aren't really trying to score
Brilliant!
I'm not going to any research but this makes so much sense I'm calling it as fact.
You know, this actually crossed my mind too but I kinda shook it off because I didn't think there would've been enough onside kick attempts to account for such a noticeable discrepancy in such a large sample, but then I saw your comment and looked into it. Turns out there were exactly 300 onside kicks attempted from just 2017-2021, of which most were recovered between the 40-49 (and most others recovered past the 50 where the chart gives us no data). If we were to expand those 300 attempts across the full time period Jon studied it could easily account for why a team appears more likely to score when they're further away. AND guess what, all that said, the tiny difference in a teams chance to score from their own 30-34 versus their own 25-29 is likely attributed to the squib kick. I didn't look into that at all but it would make perfect sense to me considering squibs are popular at the end of halves or games to prevent the unlikely kickoff return TD and are generally recovered in this 30-34 yard zone. There are even fewer squib kicks than onside kicks but the difference is only 0.05 points. It very well could just be mere coincidence or "freak deviation" as Jon suggests, but I'd like to think the squib at least plays a role.
@@nathanlong5185 thanks for doing the leg work on a theory I probably had after waking up at 3am from a fever dream lmao
I came to comment the exact same thing. It's a significant enough dip that it has to come from onside kicks where the winning team doesn't want to score
"Nick Folk kicks off 65 yards, touchdown" is one of the funniest things I've ever read
Apparently the "be Cordarrelle Patterson" advice still works.
Yeah he had gotten two more since then 😂
Just got one more.
This comment aged like wine
reddit brought me here this dude is a great watch
@@alexwitt2745 Update: it still does
2:22
"This is a sample of the 30 kick return touchdowns between the 2013 and 2016 seasons. I studied the tape and traced the route of the return man on each play. Originally, I wanted to see if I could identify some kind of trends, some kind of trick that made some returns more successful.
But honestly, the only advice I could give is to be Cordarrelle Patterson."
I hope Patterson gets inducted to the HOF and Jon Bois introduces him with this exact speech.
Crazy underrated pick up for the Pats when they had him in that span
Cordarrelle Patterson JUST scored a kickoff return touchdown and I IMMEDIATELY came back to this video.
Even if Patterson never scores a 9th return TD, he's still the best kickoff returner of all time, because no one else could have done 8 with the new rules.
Nah, Hester is the best return man ever. Patterson is a definitive second. I love them both
@@torleiftorgo9979 Hester is untouchable. Patterson belongs in a conversation with Sanders for #2.
Back again for the same reason another 2 years later
Schiano’s idea is actually brilliant. I was still on the side of the kickoff all the way up until you suggested that idea. Hopefully someday it gets put into effect...
Zachary Dunn 4th and 30?
Was also thinking about this. Maybe a 4th and 20 might be better for everybody, more chance of regular teams in regular games to just punt and surrender the "extra" possession.
V
See it would be interesting
But... it’s not football
It would sure make unsportsmanlike conduct penalties after the touchdown brutal, particularly on defense.
Wow, a year and a half later, the NFL is actually considering a watered-down version of the Schiano proposal.
Good job Jon.
Too bad the proposal got rejected by nfl owners...
I miss the AAF JUST for the 4th & 10 post touchdown. The 2 point conversion was odd, but I think it was more me being resistant to change.
What do you mean "watered down version"? Is it still called the schiano proposal?
It’s a good idea, the best replacement for kickoffs I’ve heard
@@DJsocial7102 The Broncos put it forward earlier this year. Once per game, in the fourth, a team may elect to keep the ball for a non-puntable 4th and 15 to try and convert for a first. It's only similar to Schiano's with the numbers - the point is to replace the onside.
all of the chart party videos feel like a dream
this video is the most vaporwave video ever made and it's a video about football
it's 100% the jazz
After 6 years, they received the memo. Congrats, Jon.
They finally checked the fax nook
The problem is that they basically killed off the onside kick tho
@@judemiller4137only the surprise onside kick, see the buccs and cowboys and their onside recoveries, which really wasn’t a thing that happened much
They made it safer... But they also made it EVEN MORE boring without surprise onside kicks
*Devin Hester has left the chat*
ya ok right?
*Cordarrelle Patterson has also left the chat*
😂
😂😂😂😂😂
Nah, he would actually like the Schiano proposal (replace kickoffs with 4th and 15). He was far better at punt returns than kick returns.
I can think of a college game where they punted on first down to get yards.
The field conditions were so horrible, there was so much snow on the ground, neither team was actually playing football. They were just sliding around on the snow with one guy folding a football.
So they started punting on first down to back their opponent towards their own endzone.
The object being the opposing team couldn't get anywhere either, forcing them to punt . So by punting on first down you've gained yardage.
I believe the team that lost got one first down. The team that won had no first downs.
The 1950 Snow Bowl between Michigan and Ohio State. Michigan won 9-3, earning them the Big Ten conference championship and a berth in the 1951 Rose Bowl
SB nation just please give this man all he needs to do a full time show.
Rebekah he is the creative director at sbnation i think
A show means deadlines and execs breathing down your back. An internet show means freedom. I think Jonny Boy is happy where he's at.
Id think he probably does have freedom to do what he wants at a full time pace. These videos are probably just INSANELY complicated to piece together.
I gave you the thousandth like!
I would like that.
Congratulations to Cordarrelle Patterson on breaking the kickoff return touchdown record with his ninth all time, as an Atlanta Falcon
Had to come back to this video after the nfl just officially revamped the kickoff to model that of the XFL. Love this video and love Jon bois
"It makes all the sense in the world, so no" SAVAGE LOL
I’m a Brit, almost never watch NFL and don’t really know anything about it and yet, this was so enjoyable. The spatial animation, the music, the enjoyable architectural discussion at the end... brilliant mate. Well done
John bois is a legend
I played college football as an attempted walk-on to a Big 12 team. I also love statistical analysis and the use of data and visualizations to make better decisions in everything, sports included. Not only does Jon make perfectly good points here, but an alternative to kickoffs, like the Schiano rule would, would have saved me the devastating concussion and neck injury that had marred my life since 2009. Purging kickoffs is a good decision on very front.
Git Gud
"Would the NFL ever adopt this rule? Well, it makes all the sense in the world... SO NO!"
Read this right as he said it
Would be another reason for me to not watch the NFL.
Wyatt Brownell doesn’t make any sense lol
This guy has never touched a football in his life and probably watched like 5 games
@@Terriblegolfer16 It's a joke, buddy.
I didn't know Schiano had good ideas
Schiano has an incredibly smart proposal that could potentially save lives.
NFL : "Im about to end this mans whole proposal"
"Incredibly smart" only if a defensive penalty just rerolls the down and clock burned, no auto-first downs for this, no gained yardage.
Zira Tival ah shoot I never thought about that, that would be a complete mess
@@TeemoQuinton Just add any penalty yardage to the next play, like in a kickoff, and reset after penalties
@@benisted1614 yes
4th and 15 is way too convertable
Needs to be like around 4th and 20
I'd rather be watching a chart party then go to an actual party
I’ve never dealt with fame before help me out guys
Matthew Romano agreed
this isn't fame
Well, it is a decent use of "then" here. Or is it?
Matthew Romano so what you are saying is that you watch a watch party and THEN go to an actual party? So yo go to two parties, the chart and the real one.
Was routing for the Kickoff allllll the way until you told us about the Schiano Proposal. Would be so good
Jon: “So would the NFL ever adopt this rule? It makes sense - so no.”
2020: Have we got news for you!
Did they, I don’t think so, because it made too much sense
Yeah 22 almost 2023 and no word about it 💀
I think the 2.1 points per possession is because of onside kicks and then the receiving team kneels on it
10,000 subscribers No videos I subbed
brilliant
The Real New England Patriots Fan! Thanks
Lol I just said that before I saw your comment
Thanks guys for subbing
> Would the NFL ever adopt this rule? It makes all the sense in the world, so no."
Scott Taylor football has no reason or flow to it anyway
WavesDontDie uhmmmm, no. We're watching momentum swings, ebb and flow throughout the season and you better believe that carries into the playoffs
That was such a laughable moment
"Would the NFL ever adopt this rule? It makes all the sense in the world, so no!" Lmao
"He's just out there kickin' touchdowns." Hilarious
0:15 this actually happened in a 1984 game between the rams and the giants
The box score says it’s a fumble but it actually isn’t
Savage Brick Sports you have a link to that or any idea when the play happened? There is a full game rerun if it was in the wild card game
Apparently it's the first quarter of their regular season game.
www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/198409300ram.htm
I've searched for the footage, but there's no sign, just more important games from 84, and some cheesy Football 101 videos staring Phil McConkey, the scorer of the "fumble recovery" touchdown. Interestingly, the Rams forced 3 safties, two of which were blocked punts.
Yeah, I don't see a touch there, though admittedly the quality is quite bad. If he had touched it he would have gone for it (punt return instincts). But because his punt return instincts said not to touch it, that would further indicate that the ball was never touched.
1:58 Jon, as a Chiefs fan, you're never suppose to admit those were illegal blocks
Referee didn’t see it, so they may as well not have happened.
@@Exeggutor_Enjoyer"didn't see it". Lmao.
The day you post this... Dion Lewis scores a kick return touchdown on Sunday Night Football.
Adam not to mention the injury in the saints-bills game
This implies that my beloved Broncos actually have something resembling a professional special teams which they absolutely do not.
Oh its special alright.
readonly pdf The broncos should just give up every time they kick. Let one of the linemen kick the ball or something.
That Schiano idea is actually brilliant for several reasons. For one, if you're trying to make a comeback it would be much easier to succeed and make several games every week more exciting. It would put an increased emphasis on offensive success, and we all know that high-scoring games are better for ratings.
But it's also good if you're trying to AVOID a comeback. If you have a good offense but a bad defense, you could just decide to try to hold onto the ball. No more worrying about "oh no don't score because you'll leave the other team with too much time". Just pull out a trick play and go on another drive.
Yeah, that would be exciting. I'd petition for that.
The issue I see with the Schiano rule is (I'll admit, rather dumb), the NFL's role as guide to lower levels of the sport. If you were to have this rule at the high school level mismatched teams would end up having games where one side wont even touch the ball until they are already down by 50+ points and the winning team is just punting to be nice. As a guy that played for one of those really bad teams, this would be far more discouraging than five straight 3 and outs.
I feel like it would turn the game into putting all your emphasis on big play offense. If you have a dominant offense, it would be possible to play an entire game without putting your defense on field. You can technically attempt this with on-side kicks, but with a super low success rate, it's not worth the risk. Start giving people 4th and 15s instead of kickoffs, then it starts to be worth the risk. If you can keep your dominant offense on the field 1/4 of the time or push those numbers up to 1/3 of the time, it'll change the game entirely.
You are missing that 4th and 15s and onsides have the same success rate. So nothing would change.
Random_stuff333 That's not true, in the video it says 4th and 15 has a 21% success rate, as opposed to the 5% success rate of an onside kick in the 4th quarter. Onside kicks are only 25% successful in the 1st-3rd quarters when nobody is expecting it.
TheECP Ah. Good point
The mental picture of a team just onside kicking the ball down the field is fantastic and hilarious 😂
I have to force myself to not watch your videos for a period of time. They're so damn good/interesting/addicting that I almost get upset if there is only one to watch. I had seen all your material a cpl months back and now I have a cpl to watch in a row, but still doesn't feel like enough. MAKE MORE VIDS
The second time watching doesn’t make you feel as PRETTY GOOD as it was the first time.
His videos take a lot of time to produce. These are very polished videos.
bump. Wach him now :)
Jay Lew no just no
the is a 5 part series on SBnation now
“He’s just out there *kicking touchdowns 😂😂
The AAF watched this video
I know right! XD
RIP
F
*Sad **#HottyShotty** noises*
Ballowall aaf feels bad man
I'm not sure if you read comments Jon, but I'd like to let you know that there are whispers of abolishing the kickoff at the high school level nationally. A lot of safety rule changes happen from the ground up, so if it's implemented in High School the rule could make its way up the chain eventually.
I agree with you, most of the in-game rule changes the last few years at the High School level have been regarding the kickoff. We're regulating it so much just to get a slight decrease in injury in this inherently dangerous play that we may as well just abolish and replace it.
Falcon4242 I hope they don't abolish high school kick offs
Why?
Kickoffs are good for brutal Head injuries
Also horrific knee injuries, but that's football.
Pill Box that’s why they call for fair catches😑
It’s the risk of playing a sport you get paid millions of dollars
@@bonds927 Unless you're in college or high school.
Yes in college and high school, hell even in middle school the first day of practice you are given a helmet and go over the label warning that is on the back of every helmet describing every risk you are taking by playing this sport, no one is forcing anyone to play and we do it for the love of the game.
At 4:58 there's an easter egg at the top! The three sattelites he used in his 17776 story
Yea, and like half the time something awesome happens on a kickoff there's a buzzkill penalty
90% of the time it's a block in the back
3 consecutive plays were nick folk kicking
it would actually be 4.
Kick - EP
Kick - Touchdown
Kick - EP
Kickoff
It was 4, but the first was a FG, not an extra point.
@@scrub_jay that's even more impressive
14:04 Eric LeGrand came to speak at my school. He talked about the adversity that paralyzed and disabled people go through. I live like 1 and a half hours away from Rutgers
Devin Hester was the greatest kick returner
Nah, Josh Cribbs was a better kick returner. Hester was a better punt returner, but still great at kick returns. KR TDs Hester 5, Cribbs 8. PR TDs Hester 14, Cribbs 3.
Oasis Anyways lol I bet cribbs didn’t score one in a superbowl
atklecz big fax
I SEE TITLE: "THAT'S DUMB KICKOFFS ARE FINE" SEE IT'S JON BOIS "OK maybe he has a point"
It's interesting to come back to this video 6 years later when the NFL finally changed the kickoff return
Nice little house, got your picture of Jeff Francouer
Nice little house floating above the sky at a 90 degree angle and you just fall out of the door on your way to work
His house looks like it's full of stolen Radio Shack merch.
and a taped-up scorigami chart, hopefully to be updated by hand as the seasons progress
Basketball is my favorite sport. I like the way they dribble up and down the court.
Mark Jones you did not just... 😂
Just like I'm the king on the microphone, so is Dr.J and Moses Malone
I like slam dunks that take me to the hoop
Mark Jones I like the pick and roll I like the give and go
Mark Jones Cause it's Basketball, uh, Mister Kurtis Blow
Cordarrelle Patterson is now the outright leader in kickoff return TDs, with 9 for his career. Good advice!
Need more Jon
At first i was like ‘uh uh we aint takin away the kickoff.’ But now im pro-Schaino
And then he was discovered to be hiding the fact that his butt buddy was sexually abusing a child then he became one of the most hated people in football
if your talking about his proposal to remove kickoffs that would be a shitty idea, it would make offense the only part of the game that matters. You score then you get a 4th and 15, if your offense is good you will just convert and score rinse and repeat. you don't ever give the opponent the ball.
+Shane Delancey the whole point is to make a team punt because punts are both interesting and far less likely to get someone killed
Shane Delancey
How many coaches do you know who would go for it on 4th and 15 on their own 30?
If a pass gets dropped the other team is already in field goal range
Was in NYC last weekend and passed through the Chambers St station! I felt like I was on a real life chart party field trip!
Jon Bois has returned! Hooray!
The NFL should at least trial the Schiano idea in some preseason weeks to see how coaches, players, and fans react to it. I love the idea that teams might seriously start spending more time strategizing and practicing fake punts. Then can we move the extra point line back to the 3? I hate that a kicking team now has to go 15 yards to get a 2-pointer on a bad snap.
Someone is cranky lmao
FuckYouGooglePlus except that it’s not make it take it. It’s make it and have a choice to take it but with a huge risk
FYGP --- By that logic, the current rules are also "make it take it" so what's the problem?
Sounds like someone's never seen professional Snooker!
But really the NFL is an exception where this rule would be a good change. There is not enough dynamic possession change, it very rarely happens outside of punts. Plus, every team has equal opportunity of taking the risk so neither team has an advantage.
FuckYouGooglePlus so, guys, you wanna tell him or you want me to? Ok I’ll do it. Teams who have been scored on have the option to kick off to the team that scored.
Good news, Chamber Street station is getting renovated, it only took 108 years!
The Schiano Proposal is a great idea!!!
End Zone Productions It was just announced that the Alliance Of American Football is going to adopt Schiano’s Proposal!
I'm looking forward to this project even more now!
Ikr
Maybe I'm lost. But even though it has only a 21% success rate. Wudnt a 4th and 15 be way easier for the team that just scored to keep the ball. Bcuz between scoring the initial touchdown and this play the coach has a lot more time create a play.
Maybe I'm giving coaches too much credit or I'm missing something that I'd like to hear, but it seems easier to keep the ball after scoring or is more abusable. Note I'm not in support of kickoffs right now anyway
Cameron Isenhower if you go for it and Fáil you’re giving the other team great field position.
When I played football in HS, we all HATED Kick return. We run back a couple yards, turn around, and try to stop people running tens of yards at full speed. I wouldn't think of a way to fix it until you brought up that proposal.
Ruler3995
My senior year we hated all special teams lol returners used to average 45 yards a return but never allowed a touchdown
I’m not sure what’s more ridiculous, the fact that TH-cam is suggesting this video for the fourth time or that I’m actually watching it (in it’s entirety) for the fourth time.
Freak deviation at 6:40 is probably down to squib kicks not chance
I think it's a combination of the receiving team recovering an onside kick. This gives them this type of field position, and they are often in a position to kneel, ending the game. The other thing that might influence this is the receiving team returning to this point at the end of the game, after a swing in the lead. The great return is often accompanied by a 3 or less point differential, meaning field goals are probably a higher number of scoring plays from this starting field position.
@@tohrazul tohrazul I have some thoughts with the onside kick theory here. First being kickoffs occur on your own 35, I would assume the average onside kick falls somewhere between 10-15 yards and leaves the ball between your 45 and midfield, which is a different piece of data that isn't shown at 6:40 therefore the majority of onsides probably don't factor in anyway. Second would be I would assume whoever recorded this data most likely factored out any end of the game onside kick over the 15 yard threshold to begin with, because it would massively skew the data.
@@peterson3420 I think the psychology is a bit part of this as well. If an offence starts at their own 45 instead of their own 25 and then drives to the opposition 40, they’ll have only gone 15 yards instead of 35. The offence will likely not be as confident or ‘on their game’ and will be more likely to turn it over or be forced to punt.
Also, I can see teams being more aggressive when they start from their 45 instead of 25. I think the brains of coaches could think there’s less to lose (of course this isn’t true but confidence and personal views outweigh logic) and therefore they would go for it or try longer FGs more, which would likely result in a slightly lower scoring level, when combined with the effects of onside kick recoveries and squib kicks.
Still the GOAT
It’s funny because in sports like rugby you kick all the time in an “offensive” play. Would be cool to see teams try this on offensive especially at the college level if it’s allowed.
What am i MissinG???
Henry Powell and his team have a blue team with the pro power team and they will be playing the ultimate game of football in a new home and the team will have a blue blue
Your legacy is complete. Congrats Jon
Jon, you never fail to impress me.
I'm a Bioinformatics researcher doing a lot of data visualization and your videos inspired me to make better looking, 3d presentations. I don't even watch sports.
hi. bears fan speaking here. from like 2006 to 2013 i was a big fan of kickoff returns. devin hester was a hero.
Ethan Dombrowski with the proposal he’d still have a chance to return
evolutionworld24 No, because the offense would just be able to kick it out of bounds, unless that rule was amended for that play
evolutionworld24 you're going to get rocked by the niners
Good, we need another Top 3 pick.
You did it, Chart Party! They changed the kickoff rules!
Please tell us that we are getting more Pretty Good stories, please?
I want to know if 17776 is getting a sequel.
thank you for reminding me
5:01 hey look it's the scorigami chart and the three satellites from 17776.
Someone else saw it
And also the Butterfly Keyboard ThinkPad, which is arguably the best innovation IBM ever put in a laptop.
And Frenchie!
Congratulations SB nation! We have successfully changed the rule.
All thanks to this video, and only this video.
"and not the ugliest, stupidest looking spectacle in organized sports in which dice is played with human bodies"
What a perfect way to describe the onside kick
Ily Jon
Porkchop Randy good one
They did it Jon, they finally did it.
I like the Schiano plan. Sounds like a win-win.
FuckYouGooglePlus How tf is that make it take it? It’s basically the same concept as kickoffs except the gamble has a higher probability and it is much safer
I mean you said "getting the chance to send your offense right back out" in both situations you can send them back out, if you want your offense to get the ball back you onside kick it and with the Schiano Plan you can get the ball back by fake punting or going for it on 4th and 15; which means if you do not get it then it is at least 3 points for the other team which does not make it "make it take it" since most teams would not go out there and go for it every time.
Make it 4th and 25 then, greatly reduces the odds of converting, and still accomplishes what a kickoff would do
@GoodRiddanceGooglePlus I mean if your defense can't hold 4th and 20 consistently maybe you deserve to lose the game?
@GoodRiddanceGooglePlus its likely a decent portion of the 4th and 15 conversions were plays where the defense were expecting a punt. so the conversion rate where the defense is expecting a 1st down attempt is probably closer to 17% ish id guess. I'd like the idea of starting the down closer to the endzone to make it more of a risk than an onside kick to make up for the increased conversion rate. I think it's a very good idea, but either way no change will ever be made until kickoffs start killing people, and even then they'll wait a few more seasons.
I'm a simple man....I see Jon, I like
wassup B
Well heck. If that makes you a simple man, then call me Simple McGee.
Jon got his wish and now Rich Eisen and many NFL coaches are pissed off about it. It's kind of sad that for that occasional run back they would sacrifice a few injured players.
1:30 I just realized the video title is shaped like an F
I am here for Jon Bois subtly flexing his typographical skills
This is one of the best videos I have ever seen. Props for the research, incredible! Great statistics. Great analogies. Great jokes. Great solution as well.
About the use of onside kicks in the early days: The ball didn't get pointy until 1912 or so. It was a regular rugby ball prior to that. The changed ball was to make it easier to throw to promote use of the forward pass (forward pass was put in around 1907). This would probably also be the reason drop kicks aren't done anymore.
Who has a Coffee machine next to their T.V.? Totally unwatchable.
rapists
Dustin Platt I do
6:40 this is a valid point however even if they don't score and punt it gives them and advantage on defense and for a few drives they will most likely maintain better field position because of that kick return
Whos watching this after the 2020 pro bowl game where they actually tried the 4th and 15 solution?
I'm just back here because I like Jon Bois but don't have enough of him to watch, how did it go? I don't watch sports and I'm not American even if I did.
4:54 of course he has a picture of Frenchy on his desk
My God, it's like watching a Flash video from 1998. You know, only with quality content that makes an excellent point about a great cause, instead of cut outs of Colin Mochrie unhinging his chin to say baby words.
RIP, MS Paint.
bongo155 I’m gonna be another guy and paste this from the wiki for flash player:
Initial release
January 1, 1996 (23 years ago)
Mark Pentler owned
Vindication!
Love Schianos idea but it should be 4th and 20, feel like 4th and 15 gives the offense too much chance.
The nfl loves to have extra special conditional rules, so I would add the choice of 4th and 10 from the 1 or 4th and 25 from the 20. This way the scoring team is heavily insentivised to punt after a TD but has a doable "onside kick" option providing the are willing to drive the entire field.
I think about this ever time I see a kickoff and usually tell everyone watching about the Schiano proposal. And most everyone agrees that it's a good idea.
Imagine if the 2010 Chargers had played with the Schiano Plan. They’re special teams were so bad, and their offense and defense so good, that I believe there would have been a game where the opposing offense never saw the ball. Maybe that Chiefs game where the Chargers won 31-0 and only gave up 80 or so yards on defense.
Another thing that makes punting better is the fact that you can directional punt to pin them deep. With a kickoff you are penalized for an out of bounds kick which is stupid.
SynsityGW This is the best comment on the video IMO.
You are penalized for not giving them a chance to return the ball if it’s short of the end zone. That’s not stupid.
So then why doesn't the same apply for punting?
SynsityGW because a punt is a choice by the team to give the ball up (unless a safety) and a kickoff is a mandatory play designed to allow the opposition to have a good drive to keep the competition flowing
So why are kicks that sail out of the back of the endzone not penalties?
You did it Jon! You fixed football
They killed the kickoff, but they didn't take your advice
Not pretty good, but the next best thing!
In other words...good?
Sure, why not
I prefer Chart Party over Pretty Good
Jacob Renuart your crimes will not be forgiven. For you have shamed your nation and have forever rendered yourself different, and that’s bad........?
Pretty Good tells great stories, but Chart Party blows my mind and makes me think about sports in mathy ways I've never even considered.
In Rugby, kick offs are fun and interesting. Teams are encouraged to pitch the ball to gain better field position. In Football, we have rules that enforce specialized players as non-ball carriers. Changing these rules may result in a less predictable game.
This was a great video. I was expecting to disagree and hate it, but it convinced me.
Well done.
(I too ride the subways, Chambers street is a nutty station)
I thought this was actual blasphemy until he brought up the Schiano Plan.
I know JonBois took the piss out of Schiano for Breaking Madden and this is the perfect counterpoint to that.
I also remember JonBois' Beeftank saying "Football is fun for everyone even you yes you". Keeping the games interesting til the end and limiting injuries is a big part of that, so I think Schiano's plan is.... kinda brilliant.
Love this video. I have long felt the same. Also love that you brought up the "kickoff punt" because I recall that solution being pitched around the time the touchback was moved. Really wish the football on all levels would adopt this
“He’s just out there kickin touchdowns”
Does that data control for onside kicks? Possible I just missed that, but failed onside kicks do end up in the 40-49 range sometimes and generally result in no points (often by design).
good question. the data set of 15,598 kicks does not include onside kicks, for the reason you hinted at. a lot of unsuccessful onside kicks are followed by the winning team kneeling or just not really trying to score, so i didn't want to use that data.
I probably should have waited until the discussion about onside kicks to post the comment, but I have no impulse control. Really great video, and I do love the Schiano Proposal. I have to imagine the kickoff's days are numbered for the reasons you went over, but balancing tradition with logic yields multiple little tweaks like moving up the kickoff/touchback location rather than simply fixing the problem.
Whats going on with the chart at 5:30? I thought the green bar represented how frequently a kickoff was returned to that yard line, but then you said that kickoffs inside the 10 rarely happen. The green bar is highest at that specific yard range, which doesn't make any sense. Please explain this because its giving me a headache! Thanks again for a great video
Think of that as kickoff returns that go at least that far, not the number of returns that end there.
Gerald Smalton the width of the bar shows how frequent a kickoff ends at each yard mark. That is why there are plateaus at the 20 and 25 yard lines.