Russia's War Machine Is Peaking. Next Year, It Runs Out of Steam | Ep. 26 Dr. Jack Watling
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 30 มิ.ย. 2024
- ➡️ PATREON: / decodinggeopolitics
Dr. Jack Watling is Senior Research Fellow for Land Warfare at the Royal United Services Institute. Jack works closely with the British military on the development of concepts of operation, assessments of the future operating environment, and conducts operational analysis of contemporary conflicts.
In this conversation, we talked about two wars that Russia is currently waging: an overt one against Ukraine and a covert war against the West. Thank you to everyone who supports this podcast on Patreon - and if you want to support what I'm doing, do consider becoming a supporter on Patreon as well.
0:00 - Intro
1:14 - Russia Is Compounding Advantages
4:55 - Ukrainian & Western Military Training
13:56 - When Will Russia Run Out of Troops and Equipment
22:53 - Russia-Ukraine Losses Ratio
26:51 - Theory of Victory for Ukraine
40:02 - Russian Kharkiv Offensive - A Failure?
42.49 - Ukraine's Biggest Problem?
45:42 - What Will Happen in 2024?
48:19 - Russia's Covert War Against the West
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This is the kind of conversation we want, with people who have accademic standards and professionalism.
Ukraine is fighting on behalf of the free world. We should provide them with all they require !
Damn right! Thank you Ukraine for stopping an extremely deranged man and his mindless drones from making it farther!!! I consider you as fighting for me too and i can't thank you enough for all that you are doing to stop this! I know there is much suffering there caused by this group, There is no doubt in my mind that if you had not stopped them, they would continue until we all spoke russian and chinese or all life ended on earth.
Yep! I think the same!!!
RUSI should start a YT Channel. They'd smash it.
You mean clueless privilidged kids? He is a clown twisting reality and painting it pink.
I'm with you 💯
PLEASE start dating your videos in the description. I’ve been skipping much of what you post lately because I often end up discovering it’s a repeat that seems like new. It is crucial for context and to understand what the guest knows in terms of developments on the front. Thanks!
Was about to request the same, asking for the date of the interview, as publishing date my or may not correspond to current events and situations on the ground.
These interviews are provide useful data as the situation is in constant flux....witness the current drone/missile campaign against refineries, air base, and air defenses.
@@thechancellor3715 So when is it from?
@@eugenmalatov5470 haven't a clue from the video
It says on there’s it was 19 hrs ago. Read underneath the title paragraph.its on every video.
Seems like this was from early May, before we saw any of the effects of the US aid supplies arrived and when the Northern front was looking difficult for Ukraine, when its now lost momentum and turned in Ukraines favour.
Really interesting to hear why it's better to have NATO trainers in Ukraine vs outside of it. I've never heard anyone break down 'why' it's a good thing, glad to hear it
It is easy. From Ukraine they cannot escape as easily as from the West to avoid the meat grinder.
@@TenylegMinekez-uc7co Hows the weather in Moscow Ivan?
@@mesquick Another NAFO armchair soldier. Go up from the basement and ask some cookies from your mom. BTW you could check the weather on the internet. As I'm not in Moscow, I don't know...
TLDR; Seems to skip that major part of Ukraine's unfavorable predicament is directly due to West's failure to provide appropriate and adequate weapons/munitions in a timely manner. Also, being forbidden to strikes many key russian targets. Only recently USA allowed strike in limited range to defend Kharkiv, but STILL forbids Ukraine to strike russian airfields with US weapons, which is where most of the devastating glide-bomb attacks on Ukraine originate. West needs to stop dicking around and provide Ukraine with all it needs, when it needs it and allow it to strike as it needs. If so, most of this interview would likely be moot.
Maximum accuracy with this comment.
Bullseye.
playing like we did in Vietnam
Exactly. The most intelligent thing Ukraine did was assemble the manufacturing of drones, Neptune missiles and other home made gear. I hope they can intensify that production.
Ukrainians have prove that they do not target civilians... crazy that they can't attack airfields from which glide bombs are coming and other important military relevant targets within Ukraine.
By limiting them the West is responsible for many Ukrainian deaths both civilian and military..
The first point is directly addressed at 47:38 with the same conclusion. Strike limitations are also addressed in the section on the Kharkiv offensive, but in my opinion not adequately so.
Certainly difficult to hear the orcs still have the advantage over us, but it's necessary to listen and make changes
Very good conversation.
I am really amazed by the number of experts who come to opposite conclusion on close to everything related to this war. This applies to battle front, economy, number of fallen soldiers and so on.
Depends who pays their bills ...
Ever heard of Russian maskirovk or there hybrid warfare doctrine? You need to understand that they are at war against west on there own ideology. Wheter west want it or not. So disinformation is in huge scale at the moment. They have hired people also from west to spread there agenda on eany means that can be used. There goal is not to show there advance but spread competition between western countries and especially to people whom education level is not so high that they could forme there own objektive solution on things. This is Russias hybrid warfare doctrine and has been for decades.
Can you list a bunch of examples?
@@georgschett801 suprice my comment has been deleted must be because it expoces there tactics and there style to operate in there hybride warfare doctrine. LMAO
@@georgschett801 But you need to rember the russian minded people are infiltrated deep in the western sociaty for decades now. And eaven if some one show them self as "western" military expert you need to always keep in mind that whom is paying there salery to spreading there so called "knowledge". There for you need the deep understanding about the subject. There for there missinformation operations sinks well in to the people whom has no understanding on those subject and can not chalenge that "knowledge" read misinformation they spread.
Much better than expected. Dr Jack Watling clearly articulated answers to almost every question I had about the war in Ukraine. Well done!
Hell of an interview. This is the first interview I’ve seen from anyone at RUSI besides Justin. Just as impressed. I appreciate the media push to get the word out.
🔴THE GOSPEL OF THE WORD OF ALMIGHTY GOD "the Salvation of the last day that Christ brought in the second and last incarnation of His new and holy name"
(How many religious practices do you follow? How many bases have you rebelled against God's word and chosen your own path? Understand God's word and live it. Be principled in your actions and deeds; it's not following the rules or doing it against the will for pretense. Rather, it is the practice of truth and living the word of God. Only a practice like this will please God. Any practice that pleases God is not a policy but a practice of truth. A person who truly loves God and is in the truth is a person who is honest with God, but he does not reveal it to the outside. He is ready to practice the truth when tested and does not speak or act in a way that goes against his conscience. He shows wisdom when faced with trials and is principled in his actions, regardless of the situation. A person like this is the one who truly serves. There are some who are often only verbal when it comes to their debt to God. And if you ask him, "In what ways are you indebted to God?!" He couldn't answer. All those who only use words to deal with God are hypocrites! Religious rituals and beliefs prevail among people like this; they live in such rituals and beliefs, always believing that such acts are pleasing to God, and that superficial piety or sad tears are pleasing to God. What good will these strange things do? Is this kind of people in the kingdom? The person in the kingdom must be lively and free, innocent and open-minded, honest and pleasant; one who lives in a state of freedom. He has character and dignity, and can be a witness wherever he goes; he is pleasing to both God and man. Those who have faith in God in their hearts are not strange in the outward sight of others, but their actions and deeds are commendable to others. Only these people can be considered living the word of God. What do external good works represent? The outward actions of man cannot fulfill the will of God. You believe that what is pleasing to you and what you desire is pleasing to God. What pleases you is what God surely hates, and your behavior is what God hates and hates. Such people are hypocritical Pharisees and religious people! The greater the elements of hypocrisy, the greater the opposition to God, and in the end, such people are sure to be rejected.)
Almighty God said
How many RELIGIOUS PRACTICES do you FOLLOW? How many bases have you REBELLED against GOD'S WORD and CHOOSE your OWN path? How many times have you put God's word into practice because you truly consider His burdens and seek to fulfill His will? UNDERSTAND GOD'S WORD and LIVE it. Be PRINCIPLED in your ACTIONS and WORKS; it's not following the rules or doing it against the will for pretense. Rather, it is the PRACTICE of the TRUTH and LIVING the WORD of GOD. Only PERFORMANCE like this will PLEASE GOD. 🙏
Any practice that pleases God is not a policy but a practice of truth. Some people have a penchant for attracting attention for themselves. 🛑
In front of His brothers, he will say that he is indebted to God, but behind their backs, he does not practice the truth and does the opposite. Isn't this like the religious Pharisees? A PERSON WHO REALLY LOVES GOD and is in the TRUTH is a PERSON who is HONEST to GOD, but he doesn't REVEAL it OUTSIDE. 🙏
He is READY to do the TRUTH when there is a TEST and DOESN'T SPEAK or ACT in a way that goes against His CONSCIENCE. He SHOWS WISDOM when there is a TEST and there is a PRINCIPLE in His WORKS, regardless of the situation. A person like this is the TRUE SERVANT. 🛑
There are some who are often only verbal when it comes to their debt to God. They spend their days with furrowed brows, showing off, and pretending to be pitiful. Absolutely disgusting! And if you ask him, "In what ways are you indebted to God? Please tell me!" He couldn't answer.
IF you are FAITHFUL to GOD, do not mention it in public, but use your actual practice to show your love to God, and pray to Him with an honest heart. All those who only use words to deal with God are hypocrites! Some speak of indebtedness to God in every prayer, and begin to cry when they pray, even without the touch of the Holy Spirit. ☀️
Religious rituals and beliefs prevail among people like this; they live in such rites and beliefs, always believing that such acts are pleasing to God, and that superficial piety or sad tears are pleasing to God. What good will these strange things do? To show their humility, pretend to show courtesy when speaking in the presence of others. Some deliberately make themselves slaves in the presence of others, like a sheep without any strength. Is this kind of people in the kingdom? 🛑
The PERSON in the KINGDOM must be ALIVE and FREE, INNOCENT and OPEN WILLED, FAITHFUL and agreeable; one LIVING in a STATE of FREEDOM. He has CHARACTER and DIGNITY, and he can be a WITNESS wherever he GOES; he is PLEASED by both GOD and MAN. 🙏💐
Novices in the faith have many outward practices; they must first undergo a period of dealing and destruction. The beliefs of God in their hearts are not strange to the outward sight of others, but their actions and deeds are commendable to others. ONLY these PEOPLE can be CONSIDERED LIVED in the WORD of GOD. 🛑
If you PREACH the GOSPEL daily this YEAR and the next, ENCOURAGE them to SALVATION, but in the END, you STILL LIVE in POLICIES and DOCTRINE, you CANNOT give GOD the GLORY then. Such TYPES of PEOPLE are RELIGIOUS, and also HYPOCRITES. ☀️
What do external good works represent? They represent the flesh, and even the best outward behavior does not represent life, only your own individual behavior. The outward actions of man cannot fulfill the will of God. You always talk about how much you owe God, but you cannot provide for the lives of others or inspire others to love God. You believe that what is pleasing to you and what you desire is pleasing to God. Can your happiness represent God's? Can human character represent God? What pleases you is what God definitely hates, and your habits are what God hates and hates. 😪
If you feel indebted, then pray to God. No need to mention it to others. If you do not pray to God and instead always draw attention to yourself in the presence of others, can it fulfill the will of God? If your actions are always outward, it means that you are the most arrogant of people. What kind of person is he to be seen--he is only a person who does good but is blind to the truth. Such people are hypocritical Pharisees and religious people! If you do not abandon your outward habits and are unable to make changes, then the elements of hypocrisy will dominate you even more. The greater the elements of hypocrisy, the greater the opposition to God, and in the end, such people will surely be rejected! 🙏
From The Word, Vol. I. The Manifestation and Work of God. In Faith, One Must Focus ...
Fulfillment of (John 1:1) and (Ezekiel 2:9-10), (Rev. 19:9,13)
📩 All who have "ears to listen" are led to what the Spirit of God is saying in His lowered and built kingdom/Church engraved with His new name, His totality, the ownership of this disposition, "THE CHURCH OF ALMIGHTY GOD "💐 fulfillment from what was said He to Peter 2,000 years ago recorded in (Mat. 16:18-19). His Coming is the fulfillment of all that was prophesied in the great book of Revelation, so the last "Salvation" He brought the whole truth, the way for eternal life. So the "victorious" ones who will receive them are the wise "virgins" because as recorded in the prophecy of His return no one knows it except the one who will receive it! So "come" and come to His kingdom/church standing in the holy place in the air/TH-cam! This is also a fulfillment from the book of (Isaiah 2:2/9:6) which He first fulfilled in His first incarnation. 📥
"They say with a loud voice, "Salvation comes from the Lamb, and from our God who sits on the Throne!" (Rev. 7:10). ... and (Isaiah 2: 2 / 9:6) "On the Last Day, the mountain on which Jehovah's temple stands will stand out above all the mountains. All nations will flock there. " . "For a baby boy is born to us. The rule will be given to him; and he shall be called Wonderful Counselor, Almighty God, Everlasting Father, Prince of Peace." 💌
I give you just one sentence: "Gun barrel production cannot keep up once canibalization ends"
But that's ok because shell production cannot keep up once the stocks have run dry, lol
We’re basing our current preparations on the enemy’s worst case scenario. What if they fix their production issues? What if they just import what they need from North Korea?
@@karabenomar”Russia will run out of missiles by the end of 2022”
Remember that one? You can file the Russia’s going to run out of gun barrels under the exact same place Jack, which is labeled ‘bullshit’.
Anyone who still believes these moronic statements about how rushes is gonna run out of this or that well they need to go and learn how to think because they don’t know how
Merlin!
@@triforcelink
Very informative, professional and honest description of the war assessment. Thank you
That was top quality analysis from someone who made overt and obvious sense in all regards.
Unfortunately the title of the video is somewhere hopeful and not an accurate description of that which was said
This is one of the most informative conversation I have watched on Ukraine. We need to hear more from Jack Watling.
The most informativ interview on the state of this conflict I have seen this year, by a margin.
Thx for that. Plz come back to Dr. Watling.
Agree 💯
I don't see it this way. I follow the analytics of the Conflict Intelligence Team and they have very different estimates on equipment and Russia recruitment. I feel like all the analytics from the West take numbers that russian government provides as truth and make their conclusions based on their lies.
Then u watching the wrong things.
He never mentioned when Russia’s sovereign wealth fund will run dry, and the limitations that the west has placed on Ukraine’s use of western weapons.
NATO, are you listening? World leaders, are you getting this information in your daily intelligence briefing? Because I feel more in the loop than our political leaders at this point.
Thank you for this interview. Dr Watling is always worth watching.
Outstanding conversation/analysis.
Thanks for a long Video again. I like this longer Videos more then the 5 min Videos
Thia guy reminds me that if populism gave way to realism, we would be kicking major asses.
Just in general liberalism is a cancer that makes us weak and causes us to go around making other powerful nations like Russia our enemies in the first place. Populism would make us both stronger yet more peaceful.
This gentle man has never served in the military. He's about as qualified as Tom Clancy when it comes to warfare.
Excellent interview with an unusual level of depth in this topic that we don’t often see on YT talking heads, Thankyou.
Excellent interview, thank you.
He seems more interested in shaming the British army about tank production than actually describing exactly how many tanks Russia produces.
This was one of the, if not the best, exposure of what is really happening. Very good!
NATO membership as the only guarantee for Ukraine's long term security has me scoffing and shaking my head.
What does Kim of North Korea have, and what did Saif Ghadafi say after his father was killed was the lesson that nations would take:
to guarantee your security GET NUKES!
the problem is the West does not want Ukraine to have nukes and that is why they arranged for Ukraine to give them up in the 1990's and now we see what the written security guarantees from the West are worth!
Very interesting conversation. Thank you.
What I have noticed is that when the Russians have a really big push all it does is speed up their loss rate. So they lose say 2000 men in two days instead of 6 weeks. And tank attacks have a nearly 100% loss rate: they go out but almost none come back. What I'm leading up to is that's why we see penny-packet formations in the assault - just a few tanks, just a few APCs. And I don't think that's a winning strategy.
I hope historians can shed some light on this madness in the future. As for now, we can only speculate on why they keep throwing their army away:
It might be for political reasons, keep gaining territory to feed the narrative of Russia being unstoppable.
It probably has something to do with the way successes and losses are being communicated up the chain of command, aka blatant lies to please your superiors. It's absolutely endemic in Russian culture and inevitably leads to stupid decisions.
And finally, lives aren't worth much in Russia. Especially when it's the lives of some poor colonized blokes...
In the end, Russia won't run out of men to sacrifice, but meat waves won't win the war against Ukraine armed with plenty of artillery and drones. Not only is it not a winning strategy, it's a losing strategy. I don't think Putin is going to relent, though. He is committed and this will end in catastrophe for Russia.
but that's based on numbers that are really not verified - losses are high, but as time has gone on, we've found out they are exaggerated
@@brianhammer5107 Not really, in fact most estimates of Russian losses tend to agree on the circa 500K+ casualty figures
@@user-aero68 NO, THEY DON'T - these have been shown to be ENORMOUSLY exaggerated
Zelensky told us Ukraine only list 38,000 men and Russia over 500,000. Yet it's Ukraine that's running out of manpower. Forcefully conscripting people off the streets.
Jack Watling and RUSI more generally are always worth listening to.
Completely other league than this Jake Broe clown
Sure, if u like to get bulshited.
It's not just a cold shower - the water's freezing, and the math is bleak. We support Ukraine to the max now, or we end up having the same problems on NATO's eastern flank in a few year's time. Wake up, people!
We squandered that opportunity last year by sending our weapons stockpiles in piecemeal fashion and the Russians destroyed them all. We will never outproduce Russia in this current war now.
Russia isnt going to invade further into Europe though, just considering the logistics makes that impossible. Dont fall for the fearmongering, make peace and rebuild rather than weaken ourselves further continuing this war.
@@rogerc6533 Peace on Putin's terms now would be a deadly trap. Russia is now in a war economy mode, has effectively destroyed its civilian sector, and it is committed to weapons production. While Ukraine is willing and able to fight it should be supported in destroying those weapons. I live in Poland, and we know our Russian neighbors well. Any solemn undertakings made will be worthless, any guarantees given will be broken, and any "permanent peace" proposals will be the prelude to a new war, when their army has had the chance to re-group and re-arm. Logistics in European Russia are similar throughout the region, with not much difference between the approaches to Ukraine, Belarus or the Baltic area, so I'm not sure how Russia would be impeded here.
None of this is fear-mongering, it is just listening to Putin and what he plans for my country. If or when the time comes to resist those plans I hope we can succeed, with hopefully some help from our friends.
Whilst Jack Watling’s expertise is overwhelming and undisputed, I wonder if his analysis also includes the state of Russian finances? It appears that they are in a serious state as reported by Joe Bloggs “Russia Running Out of Reserves…”, whose source was Vladimir Milov “The Russian Economy: still standing, but Stuck”. The liquidity portion of the National Wealth Fund is starting to run out and is currently looking to run out in 6 months. The planned budget deficit for 2024 has been set at 10.7 trillion roubles and includes an expected federal budget deficit of RUR 1.6 trillion or 33% of the remaining NWF liquidity, but 40% of that was spent in the first 3 months. “This poses a serious threat to Putin’s ability to continue funding the war”.
Please note this was a serious info dump, so I may not have got all the details absolutely correct, but you have the sources above.
Konstantin samiliov reports the same
Russia is self sufficient in almost every regard, has all the natural resources theyd need and can fill in any gaps with trade with China. Their economic performance in the global western market is irrelevant.
Makes a lot of sense. Thank you!
Great interview
We've often heard the phrase quantity is a quality of its own. And Russia certainly has the quantity game going. You beat quantity by quality of tactics. Technology and training. Definitely takes longer than we like but that's where we are
Excellent once again, but very, very sobering. Everyday Ukrainians are dying while our western leaders avoid their responsibilities. Could you do a session just on American and German escalation management and its failure to successfully thwart the Russians? Dr. Gustav Gressel of the European Resilience Initiative Center would be a good candidate to interview!
Agree, one of the best guys, Kofman, Watling, Gressel, Reisner, Tytelman ... the most sobering but also most realistic ones
@@eugenmalatov5470 I am not aware of Eisner and Tytelman. Who are they associated with?
@@barrylane1055 Reisner = Austrian Army, Tytelman = french expert, editor of Air Cosmos magazine
@@barrylane1055 Military & History also very good albeit an amateur expert, not a professional
@@barrylane1055 what other non German, non anglo experts do you know?
Listened to the first 3-4 minutes and the warfare expert did not bring up and state why Russia’s weapons production output will drop off noticeably sometime early next year 2025. Could it be not enough labor specialists to make the weapons? Or the materials needed to manufacture weapons will run out by 2025?
He did say it. It was due to they would stop refurbishing old equipment and would go in to only producing new equiptment
Very interesting conversation.
Thanks 🙏🏻
Very good interview - best analysis of the state of the conflict by a long shot. But I agree with another commentator - please give some indication of date of interview and thanks again.
Nice conversation!
This is a very interesting interview but from it to me appears that there is no realistic way for Ukrainians to win this war and that perhaps for Ukrainians the war has been already lost. There are several reasons for such conclusion which I will briefly outline. The first one is Russo -Ukrainian expectations in terms of defining win in this war. While Russian objectives are more limited and realistic the Ukrainians set for themselves unachievable objectives. While Russians are proposing a model for a neutral Ukraine with loss of some territory for Ukraine, Ukrainians establishment talks of a full liberation of currently occupied territories. It doesn’t matter what is considered fair or ethical here but rather what is realistically achievable and at what cost. The second one is Dr Watling statement that Ukraine could win war if it was given “needed” resources it needs to win the war. However, those “needed” resources are very much a hypothetical concept which implies close to infinite resources given to Ukrainian disposal which Ukraine will not have even with a full and much bigger than up to date support by the West. Ukraine is running out of people willing to fight and the authorities resorted to literally hunting people on streets and sending them to the front. On the other hand, Russia is pretty much a canonical example of a state with limitless resources. The third point is complicated, but I will anyhow somehow try to elaborate it. Ukraine is as well a victim of Western and NATO ambition to be construct a European security framework without a significant participation of Russia. History however suggest that this is impossible to achieve without a strategic defeat of Rusia and its relegation from the status of great powers. While this is unlikely to happen, Russia identified Ukraine as an instrumental clog towards this Western strategy which looks as if will not end well for Ukraine. This component also means that most of us observing this war struggle to understand what Russians are doing as we are focused on the tactical aspect of the war. Therefore, we are obsessed who is winning/losing battles, who gains or loses certain territories, why the Russians do not launch a massive offensive etc. On the other hand, it increasingly appears that the Russians care about the tactical aspect and are strictly guided by their strategic objectives. We are observing the war from distance is often confused by Russian action in the war. We are preoccupied with the tactical component of the war -we observe various battles, question why Russian do not engage in a massive offensive. On the other hand, it looks as if Russians do not care about tactical aspect of the war, i think they observe it strictly through their strategic objectives. This probably means that they will not care about individual battles, temporary gains or losses of territories or the time frame of how long it takes them to achieve objectives. Longer it lasts it gets harder for Ukrainians and Ukraine gets closer to implosion. Unfortunately, this will not end well for Ukraine. At the end USA, Russia and China will find a new model and establish a new world order. Ukraine will pay a high price but the end game doesn’t look well for Europe too.
A much better guest than last week.
In February 2022 Russia was doing okay, but after Putin invaded it's been all downhill for Russia and it will only get worse. Vladimir Putin is Russia's worst nightmare, and as a Tyrant he is not accountable for the steady destruction of the Federation, But rest assured we Ukrainians will hold him accountable 💙💛
Very interesting interview, I first listened to it on Patreon.
How does this gent know that Russia is meeting or exceeding its recruitment goals?
Who is supplying this info? You can imagine why I'm wondering..
Just an educated assumption, but no-one outside of russia has the full picture clearly
Russia has already peaked as demonstrated by the last two months! NATO now needs to get the logistics right so Ukraine can begin to recover their territory this summer! NATO also needs to negotiate the total withdraw of all Russian forces to the 2014 borders! Russia is unable to increase production due to massive shortages of skilled Labor!
And yet Russia keeps advancing...
@@user-jp4lt7xu2g Russian forces are advancing slowly here and there... and losing un-told numbers of men and material to do so. At what point will the people of Russia realise that Putin will continue to waste an entire generation of young Russian men - just to satisfy his distorted visions of power.
@@user-jp4lt7xu2g did you get your onion now Vatnik?
@@user-jp4lt7xu2g Like a drunken snail
@@user-jp4lt7xu2g Nope.
Very good interview. Dr. Watling strikes me as objective to the extent possible. Interestingly, the interview did not mention direct combat involvement of NATO countries in Ukraine, which I find increasingly likely.
"They will still produce 2 British Army's worth of tanks per year" just goes to show how pathetically small the British Army's tank force is. It's almost as if this happened 85 years ago......
Yeah that's not a good metric at all. The British have one of the worst tank production quantities of any major modern country in the world.
How big should Britain's tank force be? Where would they be deployed? It's better to spend the limited defence budget in areas that will provide the most benefit.
Exactly. A serious conversation would involve evaluating how many tanks Russia loses each average day, let's say 10, and how many new tanks they can produce now, let's say 1,3, and how many they can refurbish per day, let's say 8, and when they will end the stocks, let's say in 18 months, and then how many new tanks will be produced once all the productive resources go toward new tanks, let's say 3. By the same token, one should see how many tanks and howitzers is Ukraine producing, etc. If one says that Russia produces many times more tanks than the UK, this is a totally irrelevant information, as the UK is not losing 10 tanks per day, and is not involved in this war. It really is a very stupid comparison, which gives no information whatsoever. Thumbs down to this video for the very poor quality of discussion.
@@uffa00001 I don't believe the intent was a direct comparison in tank production but instead to highlight that that Russia's ability to produce new tanks is still very high.
@@_Unlukey The intent was certainly not to say anything meaningful. Russia loses around 10 tanks per day. If they only produce 2 tanks per day, when they exhaust the old stocks they will be fighting with a huge lack of tanks. The fact that the UK produces 0,001 or 0,1 tanks per day is totally irrelevant to the situation in this war. Russian production can seem huge if compared with UK production, and can still be minuscule if compared with Russian loss rate in tanks. If anything, Russian production should be compared to Ukrainian production, which is also much superior to UK's production.
When was this video made? 2023? 2024? When ?
Dope lighting
A review of Kaigun would be good. I have just finished it and really enjoyed it.
I haven't heard anyone mention the genocide that the soviets tried on Ukraine after WW2 as a reason for them to use particular tactics ( Ukraine). I think even if Ukraine was captured they would fight on, especially with all the refugees coming of fighting age as the war moves on safely in other countries.
Dr W…. Clear concise accurate… moreover so pleasant to hear your pronunciation quite close to native Russian-Ukr language.
Excellent assessment sir
Awesome 😊
Interesting. Clearly Russia can be defeated if Ukraine is supported for as long as necessary and the west continues to offer to train large numbers of Ukrainian troops behind the lines - with as much input from Ukraine as possible to make the troops we turn out suitable for deployment as replacements - rather than having to form little NATO-clone units without the assets that NATO troops are taught to expect.
Good summary
At 20:00 he says "Russia is producing more tanks per year, than the British army is purchasing over the next decade." That comparison doesn't make any sense. First the British army is primarily naval and air rather than land-based. As a proportion of the budget, of course Russians are going to have more invested in tanks. Next, Russia is in a war, and has already militarized their country. The British army is not fighting. So the British are only replacing tanks based on modernization, and maintaining a base level of forces. Russia is replacing losses. So, of course, Russia is building a lot more. Russia is building 10 times the number of tanks as Britain next year. But the implication is that Russia is generating 10 British militaries worth of force. That's probably not what he meant, but that's the comparison that he made. That's comparing apples to aircraft carriers.
This assessment seems realistic to me.
I don't envision any NATO countries giving Ukraine security guarantees in the next 18 months that would have a material impact on Russia's calculus for continuing the war.
I don't envision Ukraine's economy suddenly growing on a double-digit percentage basis for the next couple years relative to prewar levels, and this means that Ukraine will be pressed to rebuild damaged infrastructure or massively scale up military equipment.
I don't envision the current Ukrainian army having a significant strategic breakthrough on any front lines that they could exploit to recapture any significant bits of territory in 2024-2025.
I don't envision the Russian military running into equipment shortages that would cause their military to suddenly collapse before 2026.
And therefore, I believe that to win this war, Ukraine needs to not only continue holding lines and inflicting asymmetric attrition, they need to double-down on deep strikes into Russia that could potentially change the game.
Ukraine needs to develop new AI drone capabilities in order to gain an advantage. Maybe develop drones that can follow Russian rail lines autonomously and target+destroy Russian fuel trains. Continue to launch deep strikes on Russian airfields and oil refining. Ideally, develop domestic cruise missiles that can destroy Russia's military industrial capacity...
Ukraine needs to launch strikes inside Russia that are deeply painful to Russia's military industry and economy in general. Russian oligarchs need to believe that continuing the war is so damaging to their businesses that the war needs to end. People in Russia need to become so frustrated with the economic pain caused by the war that they start to revolt.
If Poland and the Baltic countries want to see the war end then they should give Ukraine financial and industrial assistance to inflict crippling strikes on key Russian industries and infrastructure. Maybe the nordic countries would help with this too. I don't think the USA, Germany, France or the UK are serious about taking steps to ensure that Ukraine defeats Russia's military. They will help Ukraine hold the lines, but that's all. Therefore, for Ukraine to truly defeat Russia, central and northern European countries will have to step up. Develop truly autonomous strike drones with capabilities to autonomously target Russia's most critical, expensive and irreplaceable military and industrial assets.
As the guest said, Western deterrence won't be much of a factor until the west rationalizes and rebuilds our supply chains. I forget what number he said, but I'm thinking this is five years out. That's actually pretty fast as these things normally go. Meanwhile, most of the story is Ukrainian human capital.
It always starts with "advisors".
This is the best video I’ve seen in months: great information..and this dude knows his stuff 👍 “Attrition theory is dangerous”. Truth right there. You cannot just keep throwing equipment at them if they cannot prosecute the war successfully.
Early in this, sounds similar to the " Repple Depot" the US had in WW2. piecemeal replacements rather than whole units pulled off and refitted.
Though better than American Civil War. Create new units, send them in
Supporting this stalemate meatgrinder war on either side is genocide at this point.
So we have F-16's and, probably more importantly, SAAB 340 preparing to deploy in Ukraine by the end of the year. As Dr Watling alluded, that's taken longer than it should have, and we risk making the same mistakes again with rationalisation of weapon and ammunition supply. My big concern for the medium-term is what AFV's we can supply to Ukraine, European NATO has given almost all it's spare stockpiles and now for Ukraine to get a decent flow of vehicles it will essentially need new ones (unless the US decides to send a lot more which currently seems unlikely), who is going to supply those vehicles and who will pay for them? NATO armoured vehicle production is pretty much a trickle of several expensive types with little commonality. A relatively simple, more mass produced range of vehicles will soon need to be produced and supplied to replace Ukrainian losses if they are going to reconstitute their armoured forces and train units to fight at higher than company/battalion level.
Russia's economy is set to grow 2.9% this year. Ukrsine is projected to have 20% of required electricity going into winter and has no economy to speak of.
there is no reliable data about growth in the Russian economy. Russia prints a lot of money for the war effort. this will come around sooner than later
A large economy is not necessarily a good economy. What are they going to do with this economy once the war ends? Few other countries in the world much want to buy Russian weapons any longer.
Thank you for some real information. Too much in this space, is opinion only😊It seems that maths and statistical analysis are way more important in assessing the state of play.
Interesting interview,fair call on some of the information but not all,too many edits make it difficult too watch,just play the full live stream.
🔴THE GOSPEL OF THE WORD OF ALMIGHTY GOD "the Salvation of the last day that Christ brought in the second and last incarnation of His new and holy name"
(How many religious practices do you follow? How many bases have you rebelled against God's word and chosen your own path? Understand God's word and live it. Be principled in your actions and deeds; it's not following the rules or doing it against the will for pretense. Rather, it is the practice of truth and living the word of God. Only a practice like this will please God. Any practice that pleases God is not a policy but a practice of truth. A person who truly loves God and is in the truth is a person who is honest with God, but he does not reveal it to the outside. He is ready to practice the truth when tested and does not speak or act in a way that goes against his conscience. He shows wisdom when faced with trials and is principled in his actions, regardless of the situation. A person like this is the one who truly serves. There are some who are often only verbal when it comes to their debt to God. And if you ask him, "In what ways are you indebted to God?!" He couldn't answer. All those who only use words to deal with God are hypocrites! Religious rituals and beliefs prevail among people like this; they live in such rituals and beliefs, always believing that such acts are pleasing to God, and that superficial piety or sad tears are pleasing to God. What good will these strange things do? Is this kind of people in the kingdom? The person in the kingdom must be lively and free, innocent and open-minded, honest and pleasant; one who lives in a state of freedom. He has character and dignity, and can be a witness wherever he goes; he is pleasing to both God and man. Those who have faith in God in their hearts are not strange in the outward sight of others, but their actions and deeds are commendable to others. Only these people can be considered living the word of God. What do external good works represent? The outward actions of man cannot fulfill the will of God. You believe that what is pleasing to you and what you desire is pleasing to God. What pleases you is what God surely hates, and your behavior is what God hates and hates. Such people are hypocritical Pharisees and religious people! The greater the elements of hypocrisy, the greater the opposition to God, and in the end, such people are sure to be rejected.)
Almighty God said
How many RELIGIOUS PRACTICES do you FOLLOW? How many bases have you REBELLED against GOD'S WORD and CHOOSE your OWN path? How many times have you put God's word into practice because you truly consider His burdens and seek to fulfill His will? UNDERSTAND GOD'S WORD and LIVE it. Be PRINCIPLED in your ACTIONS and WORKS; it's not following the rules or doing it against the will for pretense. Rather, it is the PRACTICE of the TRUTH and LIVING the WORD of GOD. Only PERFORMANCE like this will PLEASE GOD. 🙏
Any practice that pleases God is not a policy but a practice of truth. Some people have a penchant for attracting attention for themselves. 🛑
In front of His brothers, he will say that he is indebted to God, but behind their backs, he does not practice the truth and does the opposite. Isn't this like the religious Pharisees? A PERSON WHO REALLY LOVES GOD and is in the TRUTH is a PERSON who is HONEST to GOD, but he doesn't REVEAL it OUTSIDE. 🙏
He is READY to do the TRUTH when there is a TEST and DOESN'T SPEAK or ACT in a way that goes against His CONSCIENCE. He SHOWS WISDOM when there is a TEST and there is a PRINCIPLE in His WORKS, regardless of the situation. A person like this is the TRUE SERVANT. 🛑
There are some who are often only verbal when it comes to their debt to God. They spend their days with furrowed brows, showing off, and pretending to be pitiful. Absolutely disgusting! And if you ask him, "In what ways are you indebted to God? Please tell me!" He couldn't answer.
IF you are FAITHFUL to GOD, do not mention it in public, but use your actual practice to show your love to God, and pray to Him with an honest heart. All those who only use words to deal with God are hypocrites! Some speak of indebtedness to God in every prayer, and begin to cry when they pray, even without the touch of the Holy Spirit. ☀️
Religious rituals and beliefs prevail among people like this; they live in such rites and beliefs, always believing that such acts are pleasing to God, and that superficial piety or sad tears are pleasing to God. What good will these strange things do? To show their humility, pretend to show courtesy when speaking in the presence of others. Some deliberately make themselves slaves in the presence of others, like a sheep without any strength. Is this kind of people in the kingdom? 🛑
The PERSON in the KINGDOM must be ALIVE and FREE, INNOCENT and OPEN WILLED, FAITHFUL and agreeable; one LIVING in a STATE of FREEDOM. He has CHARACTER and DIGNITY, and he can be a WITNESS wherever he GOES; he is PLEASED by both GOD and MAN. 🙏💐
Novices in the faith have many outward practices; they must first undergo a period of dealing and destruction. The beliefs of God in their hearts are not strange to the outward sight of others, but their actions and deeds are commendable to others. ONLY these PEOPLE can be CONSIDERED LIVED in the WORD of GOD. 🛑
If you PREACH the GOSPEL daily this YEAR and the next, ENCOURAGE them to SALVATION, but in the END, you STILL LIVE in POLICIES and DOCTRINE, you CANNOT give GOD the GLORY then. Such TYPES of PEOPLE are RELIGIOUS, and also HYPOCRITES. ☀️
What do external good works represent? They represent the flesh, and even the best outward behavior does not represent life, only your own individual behavior. The outward actions of man cannot fulfill the will of God. You always talk about how much you owe God, but you cannot provide for the lives of others or inspire others to love God. You believe that what is pleasing to you and what you desire is pleasing to God. Can your happiness represent God's? Can human character represent God? What pleases you is what God definitely hates, and your habits are what God hates and hates. 😪
If you feel indebted, then pray to God. No need to mention it to others. If you do not pray to God and instead always draw attention to yourself in the presence of others, can it fulfill the will of God? If your actions are always outward, it means that you are the most arrogant of people. What kind of person is he to be seen--he is only a person who does good but is blind to the truth. Such people are hypocritical Pharisees and religious people! If you do not abandon your outward habits and are unable to make changes, then the elements of hypocrisy will dominate you even more. The greater the elements of hypocrisy, the greater the opposition to God, and in the end, such people will surely be rejected! 🙏
From The Word, Vol. I. The Manifestation and Work of God. In Faith, One Must Focus ...
Fulfillment of (John 1:1) and (Ezekiel 2:9-10), (Rev. 19:9,13)
📩 All who have "ears to listen" are led to what the Spirit of God is saying in His lowered and built kingdom/Church engraved with His new name, His totality, the ownership of this disposition, "THE CHURCH OF ALMIGHTY GOD "💐 fulfillment from what was said He to Peter 2,000 years ago recorded in (Mat. 16:18-19). His Coming is the fulfillment of all that was prophesied in the great book of Revelation, so the last "Salvation" He brought the whole truth, the way for eternal life. So the "victorious" ones who will receive them are the wise "virgins" because as recorded in the prophecy of His return no one knows it except the one who will receive it! So "come" and come to His kingdom/church standing in the holy place in the air/TH-cam! This is also a fulfillment from the book of (Isaiah 2:2/9:6) which He first fulfilled in His first incarnation. 📥
"They say with a loud voice, "Salvation comes from the Lamb, and from our God who sits on the Throne!" (Rev. 7:10). ... and (Isaiah 2: 2 / 9:6) "On the Last Day, the mountain on which Jehovah's temple stands will stand out above all the mountains. All nations will flock there. " . "For a baby boy is born to us. The rule will be given to him; and he shall be called Wonderful Counselor, Almighty God, Everlasting Father, Prince of Peace." 💌
Kharkiv did draw in ukr reserves but it also used 30-40,000 Russian forces away from the front they are trying to expand.
In terms of equipment production the head of the Russian military industrial complex recently stated that the total number of people required is 600,000 of which 450,000 are actual production based. He stated that he is 160,000 personnel short of the 450,000 therefore about 27% so the production is going to taper off. On top of this of course are materials and parts etc so behind the scenes things are not to good. I highly recommend you visit the channel Inside Russia to get good inside information on many aspects of the Russian society etc.
You are pretty clueless
South Korea estimates that up 3 million in defense industry could be available when Russia and North Korea will work together by 2025.How much and in which quality the weapons will be is the question mark
Plus the workforce in China for dualuse goods is even above 100 million
@@goenzoy712howitzers and tanks are hardly 'dual use' weapons. Golf carts however....
@@PawelLeszczynskipav Whatever it is my point was to believe in running out of steam is highly naive but off course interests of Russia , North Korea and China are aligned but not identical
China does have a complete different mindset .
@@goenzoy712 the closer N Korea's cooperation with russia, the closer S Korea's cooperation with Ukraine. No free lunch I'm afraid. The latest round of sanctions on Chinese banks really shows how eager they are to help their comrade in need as soon as there is a slightest bit of risk involved.
@@PawelLeszczynskipav South Korea doesn't have much interest on Ukraine .They are only reconsider if their strict policy is the right way forward
Russia is using golf carts scooby doo.Vans and motorcycles cause they don't have armored personnel carriers
What date did this interview take place?
Looks like it was posted 6/25
@@skippy9659 6/22 on Patreon
Should it not say "2026" rather than "next year"? A pessimistic view but excellent chat, thanks both.
Why didn’t you ask him when Russia will run out of money to spend on manufacturing new military equipment?
And what about the limitations that the west has placed on the use of the weapons that they’ve provided?
I haven't read a single word about the progress of the recruitment drive. Is there any information, any encouraging information?
🔴THE GOSPEL OF THE WORD OF ALMIGHTY GOD "the Salvation of the last day that Christ brought in the second and last incarnation of His new and holy name"
(How many religious practices do you follow? How many bases have you rebelled against God's word and chosen your own path? Understand God's word and live it. Be principled in your actions and deeds; it's not following the rules or doing it against the will for pretense. Rather, it is the practice of truth and living the word of God. Only a practice like this will please God. Any practice that pleases God is not a policy but a practice of truth. A person who truly loves God and is in the truth is a person who is honest with God, but he does not reveal it to the outside. He is ready to practice the truth when tested and does not speak or act in a way that goes against his conscience. He shows wisdom when faced with trials and is principled in his actions, regardless of the situation. A person like this is the one who truly serves. There are some who are often only verbal when it comes to their debt to God. And if you ask him, "In what ways are you indebted to God?!" He couldn't answer. All those who only use words to deal with God are hypocrites! Religious rituals and beliefs prevail among people like this; they live in such rituals and beliefs, always believing that such acts are pleasing to God, and that superficial piety or sad tears are pleasing to God. What good will these strange things do? Is this kind of people in the kingdom? The person in the kingdom must be lively and free, innocent and open-minded, honest and pleasant; one who lives in a state of freedom. He has character and dignity, and can be a witness wherever he goes; he is pleasing to both God and man. Those who have faith in God in their hearts are not strange in the outward sight of others, but their actions and deeds are commendable to others. Only these people can be considered living the word of God. What do external good works represent? The outward actions of man cannot fulfill the will of God. You believe that what is pleasing to you and what you desire is pleasing to God. What pleases you is what God surely hates, and your behavior is what God hates and hates. Such people are hypocritical Pharisees and religious people! The greater the elements of hypocrisy, the greater the opposition to God, and in the end, such people are sure to be rejected.)
Almighty God said
How many RELIGIOUS PRACTICES do you FOLLOW? How many bases have you REBELLED against GOD'S WORD and CHOOSE your OWN path? How many times have you put God's word into practice because you truly consider His burdens and seek to fulfill His will? UNDERSTAND GOD'S WORD and LIVE it. Be PRINCIPLED in your ACTIONS and WORKS; it's not following the rules or doing it against the will for pretense. Rather, it is the PRACTICE of the TRUTH and LIVING the WORD of GOD. Only PERFORMANCE like this will PLEASE GOD. 🙏
Any practice that pleases God is not a policy but a practice of truth. Some people have a penchant for attracting attention for themselves. 🛑
In front of His brothers, he will say that he is indebted to God, but behind their backs, he does not practice the truth and does the opposite. Isn't this like the religious Pharisees? A PERSON WHO REALLY LOVES GOD and is in the TRUTH is a PERSON who is HONEST to GOD, but he doesn't REVEAL it OUTSIDE. 🙏
He is READY to do the TRUTH when there is a TEST and DOESN'T SPEAK or ACT in a way that goes against His CONSCIENCE. He SHOWS WISDOM when there is a TEST and there is a PRINCIPLE in His WORKS, regardless of the situation. A person like this is the TRUE SERVANT. 🛑
There are some who are often only verbal when it comes to their debt to God. They spend their days with furrowed brows, showing off, and pretending to be pitiful. Absolutely disgusting! And if you ask him, "In what ways are you indebted to God? Please tell me!" He couldn't answer.
IF you are FAITHFUL to GOD, do not mention it in public, but use your actual practice to show your love to God, and pray to Him with an honest heart. All those who only use words to deal with God are hypocrites! Some speak of indebtedness to God in every prayer, and begin to cry when they pray, even without the touch of the Holy Spirit. ☀️
Religious rituals and beliefs prevail among people like this; they live in such rites and beliefs, always believing that such acts are pleasing to God, and that superficial piety or sad tears are pleasing to God. What good will these strange things do? To show their humility, pretend to show courtesy when speaking in the presence of others. Some deliberately make themselves slaves in the presence of others, like a sheep without any strength. Is this kind of people in the kingdom? 🛑
The PERSON in the KINGDOM must be ALIVE and FREE, INNOCENT and OPEN WILLED, FAITHFUL and agreeable; one LIVING in a STATE of FREEDOM. He has CHARACTER and DIGNITY, and he can be a WITNESS wherever he GOES; he is PLEASED by both GOD and MAN. 🙏💐
Novices in the faith have many outward practices; they must first undergo a period of dealing and destruction. The beliefs of God in their hearts are not strange to the outward sight of others, but their actions and deeds are commendable to others. ONLY these PEOPLE can be CONSIDERED LIVED in the WORD of GOD. 🛑
If you PREACH the GOSPEL daily this YEAR and the next, ENCOURAGE them to SALVATION, but in the END, you STILL LIVE in POLICIES and DOCTRINE, you CANNOT give GOD the GLORY then. Such TYPES of PEOPLE are RELIGIOUS, and also HYPOCRITES. ☀️
What do external good works represent? They represent the flesh, and even the best outward behavior does not represent life, only your own individual behavior. The outward actions of man cannot fulfill the will of God. You always talk about how much you owe God, but you cannot provide for the lives of others or inspire others to love God. You believe that what is pleasing to you and what you desire is pleasing to God. Can your happiness represent God's? Can human character represent God? What pleases you is what God definitely hates, and your habits are what God hates and hates. 😪
If you feel indebted, then pray to God. No need to mention it to others. If you do not pray to God and instead always draw attention to yourself in the presence of others, can it fulfill the will of God? If your actions are always outward, it means that you are the most arrogant of people. What kind of person is he to be seen--he is only a person who does good but is blind to the truth. Such people are hypocritical Pharisees and religious people! If you do not abandon your outward habits and are unable to make changes, then the elements of hypocrisy will dominate you even more. The greater the elements of hypocrisy, the greater the opposition to God, and in the end, such people will surely be rejected! 🙏
From The Word, Vol. I. The Manifestation and Work of God. In Faith, One Must Focus ...
Fulfillment of (John 1:1) and (Ezekiel 2:9-10), (Rev. 19:9,13)
📩 All who have "ears to listen" are led to what the Spirit of God is saying in His lowered and built kingdom/Church engraved with His new name, His totality, the ownership of this disposition, "THE CHURCH OF ALMIGHTY GOD "💐 fulfillment from what was said He to Peter 2,000 years ago recorded in (Mat. 16:18-19). His Coming is the fulfillment of all that was prophesied in the great book of Revelation, so the last "Salvation" He brought the whole truth, the way for eternal life. So the "victorious" ones who will receive them are the wise "virgins" because as recorded in the prophecy of His return no one knows it except the one who will receive it! So "come" and come to His kingdom/church standing in the holy place in the air/TH-cam! This is also a fulfillment from the book of (Isaiah 2:2/9:6) which He first fulfilled in His first incarnation. 📥
"They say with a loud voice, "Salvation comes from the Lamb, and from our God who sits on the Throne!" (Rev. 7:10). ... and (Isaiah 2: 2 / 9:6) "On the Last Day, the mountain on which Jehovah's temple stands will stand out above all the mountains. All nations will flock there. " . "For a baby boy is born to us. The rule will be given to him; and he shall be called Wonderful Counselor, Almighty God, Everlasting Father, Prince of Peace." 💌
nice to hear a non-propaganda point of view
The chap interviewed didn't take into consideration wether or not the russian economy can afford to keep the war going. The russian economy is sinking fast.
11:30 Why does moving the training grounds from a neighboring country a few hours into Ukraine help engaging the brigade commanders in a meaningful way? Can't they just drive there?
The ongoing war (not covered) it's a WW of russia and china against the west. The war in Ukrain, it's the hot part of that WW.
The most pessimistic view I have heard from an expert and if he is erring on the negative side, it would be because he wants Western governments to do more.
RUSI should start a TH-cam channel. Different speakers each week with a full-time host.
date of the interview?
6/25 I think
Moscow horde´s war record :-
1856 defeated by Britain and France
1905 defeated by Japan
1917 defeated by Germany
1920 defeated by Poland, Finland, Estonia and all Baltic states
1939 defeated by Finland
1969 defeated by China
1989 defeated by Afghanistan
1989 defeated in the Cold War.
1996 defeated by Chechnya
2022 defeated by Ukraine
WW2 won USA/Britain , meanwhile Stalin's officers were shot or sent to the Gulags. Millions went to the Gulags, including Solzhenitsyn
Moscow's only victories come from invading smaller countries :-
a) Hungary 1956
b) Czechoslovakia 1968
c) Moldova 1992
d) Georgia 2008
um, the setback in Finland during WW2 was very minor - when the snows melted, the Finns were beaten into the dust and had to cede thousands of square miles of territory
Finland is 0.05 the size of Russia. They punch far above their weight.
OP:
Never under estimate the power of reason, which is only found in meaningful quantities where men are free to think.
And never over-estimate nations of Men who are not permitted to think.
Same headlines from two years ago. Rinse, repeat
I honestly thought the thumbnail picture of Jack was a young Putin😂
the exercise seems to be, projecting every emerging trend in a rapidly changing war situation, where the losing side work hard to change the game and stop any losing trend. I wonder why Ukraine does not focus harder on taking out key figures of the putin regime in the hope that war priority there lessens. Putin could do the same but must expect a new ukrainian leader to just carry on the resistance - so this should work better for Ukr.
Hopefully this is a Wake Up call.
It appears this guy isn't paying attention to very important details. He seems afraid of Russia when it's obvious to see the cracks forming.
He measured the crack as taking 18 more months to really become a problem.
Next year russia will exceed the number of casualties of america lost in the civil war
Losing 20,000 convict soldiers is still losing 20,000 soldiers. Soldiers that could have been used elsewhere. Also I think with its meatwave tactics - Russia has amply demonstrated that has little care for the lives of its soldiers, convict or otherwise. The Bhakmut campaign finished off Vagner, which had been Russias most effective unit. Vagner has ceased to be a force in Ukraine since Bhakmut.
Never mind the sociological effects of the approach to conflict the amount of PTSD alcoholism that’s going to prevail within Russia after this we’ve already seen crime rates increased significantly I think murders of doubled or something like that
have you an actuall video of such "meatwave" attack by Russians? since everything in this war is already filmed by the drones, there must be at least something filmed, but i havent seen a single one yet, maybe you have some example of that? please share...or shut the fuck up
Russia does care for the lives of it soldiers which is why it would rather let Fabs, drones and artillery do most of the fighting for it. Sadly capturing cities and strongpoints will inevitably result in heavy losses, America would suffer similar casualties to Russia if it had to fight Ukraine.
So this war ends when Russia decides it ends. 2027, 2028, 2029?
I understand the the Ukrainians aren't getting adequate preparation but since their life expectancy is much higher than the russians (some say only 2 days) don't they eventually get enough experience to give them a tactical advantage?
Tactical advantage in a trench war? I don't know.
Making predictions for a long run over a war is kind of very presumptuous and also kind of way to persuade the public opinion in to believe in what have been said
With all due respect to Dr Watling, his analysis does seem overly pessimistic. The RuAF’s level of mechanised support has clearly been severely degraded. Despite their ability to refurbish decades old equipment stock, Russian military/industrial production cannot hope to keep up with frontline losses, and stock levels are now severely depleted. Russian missile accuracy may have improved but missile stocks are low and with increasing numbers of state of the art missile defence systems in Ukraine’s arsenal, the Ukrainian interception rate of those Russian missiles is likely to increase rapidly. Ukraine’s new air defence systems, along with a strengthen Ukrainian Air Force, will likely reduce the number of glide bombs that Russia is able to use, bombs that have caused the AFU such problems. The qualitative disparity between Ukrainian and Russian equipment is likely to grow. Russia is clearly desperate to avoid recruiting too many personnel from Moscow and St Petersburg, hence the generous financial inducements to the rural poor and overseas personnel. This approach has its limits. It is also questionable how long the political and economic climate in Russia will allow the war to continue.
His assessment is based on intelligence and data monitoring. What is your opinion based upon?
@@EvoraGT430I think his assessment is correct as it is based on continual reporting and open source intelligence, pretty much available to anybody ready to collate it thoroughly and view it objectively. The evidence of putler avoiding mobilising the middle class ethnic russians is hardly controversial, which is why so many minority groups have been drafted and now even reports of North Korean subjects are fair game. Watling has minimal access to the inner workings of either the kremlin or russian ministry of defence, production output or poohtie's mobilisation strategies going forward so he's hardly better placed to comment accurately than anybody else willing to do their own due diligence and research. The fact that putler still hasn't even achieved his own admitted minimalist goals in Ukraine ( capturing the entirely of Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhya oblasts to their legitimate administrative borders ) let alone any of his overbloated MAXIMALIST objectives ( removing the Zelensky government with a puppet version, capturing Kyiv and cutting Ukraine off from the Black Sea, avoiding Ukraine entry into NATO/EU ) tells us clearly that the dictator is now in an ever faster race against time before it all implodes in his face. This must be the longest " special military operation " in human history. 🇺🇦
Intersting he scoffs at casualty numbers yet takes Russian recruiment numbers at face value. Videos published by the russian units themselves indicate losse of 80% in many cases.
Same with his belief in armored production numbers while observable video evidence contradicts new armor arriving in the field. In fact we see T62's and even T55's
Academics, is there annything they don't know!
Bring back Ben Hodges more often.
Hodges
They don’t want you to know Ukraine casualty #s
Dr. Jack Watling mentioned that Russia can produce 150-200 tanks from scratch per year. Does anyone have a source for that? I have not seen that number
thtat was pretty much the only figure I did not question throughout this interview. He also said russia is recycling 1500 tanks per year...
I'd question that number.
Every channel I have watched agree Russia can easily produce 200 new tanks per year. But you have to remember at current loss rates 200 tanks will last them 10 days.
What about the remaining 355 days of the year?
@@tomfurmby88 We don't have good numbers on recovery and repair. It matters a lot whether a loss is a partial loss or a total loss.
@@afterthesmash exactly my point. Thank you
It can't be getting better for russia if they're losing thirteen hundred soldiers a day Have had to resort to motorcycles golf carts and scooby doo vans
Well, the war is costing Russia approx. $1bn per day in costs, which I reckon isn't sustainable after their wealth fund runs dry. Ukraine's international partners have a combined GDP of ~25 times that of Russia's GDP, meaning that the West can easily outspend Russia just as it was the case when the USSR collapsed.
Yeah but at the same time the combined debt of Ukraines allies is 30 times higher than Russias
@@askeladd60 To evaluate debt, you must hold it up against assets. Russia's most valuable company, doesn't even make the Top 250 list of the Worlds most valuable companies.
@@thoso1973 there is a a thing called met investment position which measures how many assets countries have abroad vs liabilities, based on this metric the US is the largest debtor nation, Russia on the other side along with China are creditor nations
Every time you hear "Ukraine and its international partners", take a drink
Give Putin more red lines example if they bring North Korea into Europe then NATO is into Ukraine.
You mean like how the Russians ran out of their army in WW2😂
not sure what to make of his take on Russia building more tanks than the British will be buying ???
when asked to clarify; 1500 tanks per year of which 150-200 are new tanks i.e. 1300 refurbished
refurbishment can't carry on for ever but if I understand his inferences there's only a maximum of 2 years worth of refurbishments left
i.e. 2500 old tanks still in storage still to be refurbished
They are losing approx 9 per day
would love to know the figures for artillery
No upward mobility=endless stream of poor people to the front.
Russia presents greater force but it's losses are immensely greater.